2021 coaching carousel

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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snowmanny

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It's funny how in basketball it is nearly criminal to take an 18-foot jump shot based on points-per-shot but with football half the world wants to run the ball 40 times a game despite the yards-per-play disparity with passing. I recognize the value in keeping defenses honest etc but it still strike me as odd.
 

67YAZ

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Speaking of the Bears, the team confirmed this evening that Pace & Nagy will be back for 2021 and that Chuck Pagano has hung up the headset.

Since everyone knows Pace & Nagy are on a one-year trial, I'm guessing Pagano will be replaced from within. Assistant coordinator Ted Monachino was Pagano's DC in Indy, so he could step into the role seamlessly. Defensive line coach Jay Rodgers and safeties coach Sean Desai have been praised by Nagy and probably deserve a shot, but neither has been a coordinator before. There's plenty of retreads out there who would take the gamble on a one year gig since it comes with the chance to scheme around Mack, but with limited cap space, any external hire is going to have to roll with a roster stocked for Pagano's system.

Edit: What the Bears should do is take a run at Wade Phillips. He’d be fun and aggressive, and if it all goes sideways midseason, Wade can step in as interim head coach to see out the year.
 
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lexrageorge

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What's the difference in cost? The spotrac contract page doesn't show the difference, just a large amount of "dead money".

Cut is $59.2M
Trade is $33.8M
The Spotrac website's "dead cap" assumes the player is cut. Typically, the difference is negligible, but Wentz's 2021 salary of $15.4M guaranteed last year. If he's cut, the Eagles absorb the hit for the full guarantee. If he's traded, the acquiring team absorbs the $15.4M, as salary doesn't really accrue until July or August. The acquiring team would also be on the hook for Wentz's $10M roster bonus (which is also guaranteed), so would need $25.4M of cap space to fit him in. And there is no real way to restructure that contract to lessen the 2021 hit, as both the salary and bonus are already guaranteed for 2021.

As Wentz's 2020 cap hit is around $34M if he stays, a trade is essentially a wash for the Eagles.

Any trade would likely have to happen in the first 3 days of the league year (which is scheduled to start 3/17). Otherwise, the Eagles would take on the roster bonus hit of $10M. Or they could do a trade after 6/1, which I believe would allow them to spread the $43.8M cap hit over 2 years, thereby kicking the can down the road a bit.
 

PedroKsBambino

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He's a spectacular coach, but given where they are starting it is hard to imagine he sticks around long enough to finish the job isn't it?
 

DJnVa

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He's a spectacular coach, but given where they are starting it is hard to imagine he sticks around long enough to finish the job isn't it?
I don't know.

They are going to add Trevor Lawrence and have more cap space available than anyone. They will become at least semi-attractive to FAs with Meyer and Lawrence coming to town.
 

OurF'ingCity

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The college-to-pros transition never seems to work out. The only even partial success I can think of there is Pete Carroll but of course he already had NFL coaching experience prior to his USC gig.

Nick Saban’s tenure with Miami is exhibit A here, with Chip Kelly being another example. And going back further you have Bobby Petrino, Steve Spurrier, etc.

Given that Meyer has already shown a predilection for jumping ship when the going gets tough (due to health issues or otherwise) I predict he’s gone in 2 or fewer years - either due to health issues, him getting fired, or getting lured to a more promising college job (a la Saban).
 

Cellar-Door

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Isn't the biggest concern his health and how long he'll actually be able to actively coach the team?
His health isn't bad. health and family were generally his code words for getting out of Dodge before stuff blew up. In Florida it was the widespread toxicity and criminality in his program. At OSU it was the criminality in his coaching staff.

Urban Meyer is a shitty person even by college football coach standards. He's going to take a huge payday, fail then jump ship.
 

ShaneTrot

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His health isn't bad. health and family were generally his code words for getting out of Dodge before stuff blew up. In Florida it was the widespread toxicity and criminality in his program. At OSU it was the criminality in his coaching staff.

Urban Meyer is a shitty person even by college football coach standards. He's going to take a huge payday, fail then jump ship.
Yeah, he will be the first person into the lifeboat during a shipwreck. This will be the last big payday.
 

joe dokes

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The college-to-pros transition never seems to work out. The only even partial success I can think of there is Pete Carroll but of course he already had NFL coaching experience prior to his USC gig.

Nick Saban’s tenure with Miami is exhibit A here, with Chip Kelly being another example. And going back further you have Bobby Petrino, Steve Spurrier, etc.

Given that Meyer has already shown a predilection for jumping ship when the going gets tough (due to health issues or otherwise) I predict he’s gone in 2 or fewer years - either due to health issues, him getting fired, or getting lured to a more promising college job (a la Saban).
I think his best path is to load up on players who know him already, who hopefully convince enough other players that he's the real deal. Similar in a way as to what BB did early on in NE.
 

luckiestman

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The college-to-pros transition never seems to work out. The only even partial success I can think of there is Pete Carroll but of course he already had NFL coaching experience prior to his USC gig.

Nick Saban’s tenure with Miami is exhibit A here, with Chip Kelly being another example. And going back further you have Bobby Petrino, Steve Spurrier, etc.

Given that Meyer has already shown a predilection for jumping ship when the going gets tough (due to health issues or otherwise) I predict he’s gone in 2 or fewer years - either due to health issues, him getting fired, or getting lured to a more promising college job (a la Saban).
Saban was fine

Jimmy Johnson was great
 

OurF'ingCity

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Saban was fine

Jimmy Johnson was great
Saban was a .500 coach who jumped ship back to college when he got an attractive offer - which just supports my prediction that Meyer could do the same.

I grant you Jimmy Johnson, but that was 30 years ago.

Let's just say the odds aren't in Meyer's favor here - he might end up being a successful, long-term NFL coach but if he does he'll be one of an extremely select few that successfully made that transition. I'd be a little bit more bullish if he had any NFL coaching experience whatsoever earlier in his career, but he doesn't, and I think it's pretty clear that it takes an entirely different skillset to succeed in the NFL as compared to college.
 

Super Nomario

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View: https://twitter.com/rapsheet/status/1349754822476632066?s=21
[/QUOTE]
I don't know that this is all that "meteoric." Holmes has been with the Rams for 18 years and been Director of College Scouting, a reasonably common stepping-stone to GM, for 8.

I don't know a lot about him, but he must be pretty impressive to stick through a few regime changes. Usually GMs bring in all new guys, but Holmes has stayed on.
 

Cellar-Door

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Saban was fine

Jimmy Johnson was great
Saban quit when he saw how much effort it took just to be mediocre. He's exhibit A on why Meyer likely won't work, because even if you are a good coach, JAX isn't going to be good for a couple years, and Meyers' M.O. has always been that the minute things got tough he scooted.
 

BaseballJones

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It's an interesting question: Would you rather be an all-time great college coach, or try your hand at being an NFL coach, where it definitely might not work out?

Obviously it's a lot harder being successful in the pros than in college, and you can still get paid huge dollars as a college coach. But it's definitely a step down in terms of level compared to the pros. But you've got people like Boeheim or Izzo or Coach K or Roy Williams that could have made the effort to be pro coaches but just prefer being all-time great college coaches. Do you even try to be a pro coach and risk failing at it (if you're worried about your legacy or whatever)? Or is it just better to be great in college, make huge money, and be seen as a legend in that community?
 

67YAZ

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His health isn't bad. health and family were generally his code words for getting out of Dodge before stuff blew up. In Florida it was the widespread toxicity and criminality in his program. At OSU it was the criminality in his coaching staff.

Urban Meyer is a shitty person even by college football coach standards. He's going to take a huge payday, fail then jump ship.
This is the thing. For all of Albert Breer’s talk about how Meyer brings a “full program” to the organization, his organizational culture always ends up riddled with bad people engaged j. Really bad behavior. The track record is established. Hire him now and you can’t claim to be surprised later.
 

mauf

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Old thread fren. Is your son happy?
Thanks. Moved the discussion and renamed the thread to reflect the ongoing discussion (not just Black Monday).

His first choice was Robert Saleh but he’s OK with Meyer so long as he doesn’t do something stupid like draft Fields ahead of Lawrence.

Marrone deserves credit for rebuilding the culture after the Coughlin debacle. Jacksonville is not a bad situation.
 

luckiestman

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Thanks. Moved the discussion and renamed the thread to reflect the ongoing discussion (not just Black Monday).

His first choice was Robert Saleh but he’s OK with Meyer so long as he doesn’t do something stupid like draft Fields ahead of Lawrence.

Marrone deserves credit for rebuilding the culture after the Coughlin debacle. Jacksonville is not a bad situation.
Let him listen to this

View: https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/status/1349869522291884033?s=20
 

Sille Skrub

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It's an interesting question: Would you rather be an all-time great college coach, or try your hand at being an NFL coach, where it definitely might not work out?
This is an awesome question. Easy answer is the one where you could make the most money. Real answer is probably college. A big time college football coach is a god in a college town. I also think once you have your program set up with recruiting and all, it’s an easier gig. Plus, college kids aspiring to make the NFL are probably much easier to coach than millionaire prima donnas.

Other college coaches that found success in the pros are Bill Walsh, Pete Carroll, Dick Vermeil, Chip Kelly, Tom Coughlin, Jim Harbaugh, Bill O’Brien, Mike Vrabel and Barry Switzer. I’d chalk up BOB as a success just for longevity’s sake. IMO, the modern NFL is the hardest sport to have sustained winning because of the cap. It’s rare, but it can be done.

As for Urban, I love the guy and he was obviously great for us in Columbus. However, count me in the 2-3 year max camp. He’s going to lose interest really quickly when he realizes he doesn’t have 7-8 layups on the schedule. The NFL is a grind and I suspect he’ll go back to the health/stress reasoning when he leaves in a few years.
 

MuzzyField

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This is an awesome question. Easy answer is the one where you could make the most money. Real answer is probably college. A big time college football coach is a god in a college town. I also think once you have your program set up with recruiting and all, it’s an easier gig. Plus, college kids aspiring to make the NFL are probably much easier to coach than millionaire prima donnas.

Other college coaches that found success in the pros are Bill Walsh, Pete Carroll, Chip Kelly, Tom Coughlin, Jim Harbaugh, Bill O’Brien, Mike Vrabel and Barry Switzer. I’d chalk up BOB as a success just for longevity’s sake. IMO, the modern NFL is the hardest sport to have sustained winning because of the cap. It’s rare, but it can be done.

As for Urban, I love the guy and he was obviously great for us in Columbus. However, count me in the 2-3 year max camp. He’s going to lose interest really quickly when he realizes he doesn’t have 7-8 layups on the schedule. The NFL is a grind and I suspect he’ll go back to the health/stress reasoning when he leaves in a few years.
Do you love the guy or the results? Asking as a Gator who loved the titles, but would have preferred 20 more years of Spurrier.

The Jags had a significant amount of draft capital last year and let an already failed GM Dave Caldwell hang around and spend it. The GM job was more attractive last year for a total team rebuilding... keep winning Rams!

If Urban accepts the interim stooge Trent Baalke (part of Caldwell's last draft braintrust) as his full-time GM it's clear this is a money grab.
 

sodenj5

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The only reason I see Urban working out any better than Nick Saban is the quarterback. Saban got it wrong, passed on Drew Brees, and shortly after fled when he realized he couldn’t just pull the best players in the country out of thin air.

Urban has cherry picked his opportunity, aligning himself with the best QB prospect in a decade and a team with massive draft capital and salary cap. Frankly, if this doesn’t work, it would be a massive stain on his legacy, probably worse than Saban’s Miami stint.
 

koufax32

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Don’t underestimate that a majority of Jacksonville disliked him two days ago and some probably still do from how he’s talked about his Florida days. The local press there hate him as well.
I agree with the two years or less timeline. When he does leave, it will come with “good riddance” from a not insignificant part of the fan base.

A different discussion, but don’t we have a large enough sample size to conclude that Khan is a sucky owner?
 

mauf

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A different discussion, but don’t we have a large enough sample size to conclude that Khan is a sucky owner?
My son is down on Khan. I still hold out hope — his hands-off approach will pay dividends if he hires the right people, which Caldwell and Coughlin decidedly weren’t. (Marrone was nothing special but wasn’t the crux of the problem;l, which has been bad talent choices coupled with Coughlin’s corrosive effect on the culture.)
 

mauf

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The Jags had a significant amount of draft capital last year and let an already failed GM Dave Caldwell hang around and spend it. The GM job was more attractive last year for a total team rebuilding... keep winning Rams!
It’s easy to forget what a train wreck the Jaguars were a year ago. All the Coughlin drama had just come to light. They had a terrible QB situation, and it wasn’t even cheap. The Jags used the past year to reset their cap and their culture, and landed the best QB prospect in a decade in the process. The 1-15 season that was necessary to put all this in place is in the rear-view mirror. And my son would tell you the 2020 draft class fared OK as rookies, with some nice later round and UDFA finds making up for what looks like a whiff on one of the two first rounders (Chaisson). Jacksonville is a much more attractive opening nod, for a GM or a coach, than it would have been a year ago.
 

Harry Hooper

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Pats not in the first quadrant thanks to Kraft Sports & Entertainment.
 

MuzzyField

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It’s easy to forget what a train wreck the Jaguars were a year ago. All the Coughlin drama had just come to light. They had a terrible QB situation, and it wasn’t even cheap. The Jags used the past year to reset their cap and their culture, and landed the best QB prospect in a decade in the process. The 1-15 season that was necessary to put all this in place is in the rear-view mirror. And my son would tell you the 2020 draft class fared OK as rookies, with some nice later round and UDFA finds making up for what looks like a whiff on one of the two first rounders (Chaisson). Jacksonville is a much more attractive opening nod, for a GM or a coach, than it would have been a year ago.
I pretty much agree they had a reset plan, but his draft record was so horrendous, and his few hits are all gone. TC may have overdrafted Fournette, but they're not gagging away the AFC Championship game without him. The 1-15 results aside, the 2020 class sure played a lot, and the best player was an undrafted FA.

Do you recall it being Bill Polian that consulted with Kahn after he bought the team and ended up pushing for Caldwell?
 

sodenj5

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The main thing is on top of being -100 million in cap space and having very little to work with in draft picks, they're also losing Brees. There's a good chance they'll be among the worst teams in football next year.
But that’s exactly why you push so hard into the red. Nothing matters once Brees leaves and his career is week to week at this point. The only thing that matters is this season.

You do a hard reset for a year or two, draft a QB with a higher first round pick, and try and rebuild from there. Sean Payton isn’t going anywhere. 2021 might be ugly, but you take one or two stinkers if you bounce back.
 

Awesome Fossum

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The college-to-pros transition never seems to work out.
To the extent that's true, it's true of of any group. Super Bowl winning-coaches on their second team, Patriot assistants, college coaches, defensive coordinators, you name it. It's just really hard to get everything lined up and sustain success in NFL.
 

Hoya81

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To the extent that's true, it's true of of any group. Super Bowl winning-coaches on their second team, Patriot assistants, college coaches, defensive coordinators, you name it. It's just really hard to get everything lined up and sustain success in NFL.
Carroll and Bill Walsh are probably the most successful of the college->NFL coaches, but they had spent most of their careers as pro assistants. Is there a modern example of a college coach with little to no pro experience succeeding in the NFL?