2021 coaching carousel

Super Nomario

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Yup. I think they would want a 1st and more for Hurts. If Philly offered me Hurts for #15 and a 2022 2nd or 3rd, I think I would pull the trigger. You'd be getting a much better version of Cam (2020 version) on a cheap deal and could go nuts in FA to fill rest of the roster.
This is madness. Hurts was the 53rd pick just last draft. Now, because he played, generously, OKish in four starts, you're going to give up pick #15 for him? There's an excellent chance he is much worse than Cam.
 

DJnVa

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If folks didn't like Cam's completion percentage, wait til they see Hurts.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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First the Steelers blow an 11-0 start and now the Eagles are imploding? It's like Christmas all over again!

Wentz's regression threw the whole org into a blender and they haven't figured a way out of it yet as they descend into cap hell. The nonsense with Hurts/Sudfeld in the final game looked bad and must've been a real issue too.
 

BigSoxFan

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This is madness. Hurts was the 53rd pick just last draft. Now, because he played, generously, OKish in four starts, you're going to give up pick #15 for him? There's an excellent chance he is much worse than Cam.
No, there isn't. But fair point on #15 for value. I happen to like Hurts but acknowledge giving up #15 for him would be risky if you don't think he'll improve as a thrower.
 
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Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I remember Collinsworth yammering on SNF about how he's safe, he won a SB three years ago, he's not going anywhere.

Right.

Another example of what have you done for me lately, coaches get hired to get fired, that's the nature of the profession.

Gee, what a shame.
Once Wentz crashed and burned, Pederson was doomed. They invested an aircraft carrier's worth of money in the guy and Pederson was supposed to be a QB whisperer and instead Wentz played stupid hero ball.
 

Cellar-Door

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This is madness. Hurts was the 53rd pick just last draft. Now, because he played, generously, OKish in four starts, you're going to give up pick #15 for him? There's an excellent chance he is much worse than Cam.
I think he played a lot better than okish.
He played 4 games as a starter, and faced 2 really good defenses in that time. His comp% was bad, but in basically every category he significantly outplayed Carson Wentz:

Wentz Hurts
ANY/A 3.98 5.85
TD%+ 90 94
ANY/A+ 71 94
INT%+ 78 91
SACK%+ 67 85
 

DJnVa

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Some details on Pederson's firing:

1--He threatened to quit in September after being pressured to fire his OC.
2--He wanted to promote some coaches this offseason and Lurie disagreed with this.

Pederson may be candidate for NYJ position per Schefter.
 

DJnVa

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I think he played a lot better than okish.
He played 4 games as a starter, and faced 2 really good defenses in that time. His comp% was bad, but in basically every category he significantly outplayed Carson Wentz:
Low bar. He was not a great, nor good, nor average, passer this year. One could think he'll improve, but completing less than 52% of your passes as a starting QB is not good.
 

ShaneTrot

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The Philly version of Bob Hohler needs to 'write' this story. I am sure a lot of half-truths will be leaked over the next few days.
 

luckiestman

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Some details on Pederson's firing:

1--He threatened to quit in September after being pressured to fire his OC.
2--He wanted to promote some coaches this offseason and Lurie disagreed with this.

Pederson may be candidate for NYJ position per Schefter.
A few people are trying to push the “Pederson to the Jets” story. Douglas is interviewing all of these people so he will have the most information. We cannot do worse than the last Eagles coach we hired.

My first choice is not Doug.
 

Cellar-Door

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Low bar. He was not a great, nor good, nor average, passer this year. One could think he'll improve, but completing less than 52% of your passes as a starting QB is not good.
Sure, but if you're a 22 year old rookie and you come into an offense and outplay the former MVP candidate starter by a wide margin, it's a pretty good season. The Eagles were downright broken when Hurts took over, and he gave them a better chance to win than Wentz, that's all you can ask for from a rookie.
I'd love to see his uncatchable ball rate too, I only saw two of his games, but I remember his receivers being.... rough.


Edit- this isn't to say I would trade 15 for him, I wouldn't, just that his value is probably a 1st based on being better than expected as a rookie and having a tiny contract.
 
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Mystic Merlin

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You have to go back to Siefert/Niners and Switzer/Cowboys in the mid-90s to find coaches forced out so quickly after presiding over a Super Bowl title.

That isn’t to say that makes this a bad decision. In fact, I don’t think a coach is entitled to/nor should a team feel compelled to offer some kind of mandatory grace period. But it’s pretty wild how quickly things deteriorated in Philly. I had chalked up their issues largely to personnel/cap problems, to be honest, but it sounds like the management/Pederson dynamic was far less palatable than I appreciated.
 

OurF'ingCity

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I didn't want the Pats to draft Hurts, and I don't want them to trade for him. Stay away.
I did want them to draft him, but I don't want them to trade for him. Drafting him would have made sense at the time because they needed a QB, and had he been New England's starter I think he effectively would have been a younger, somewhat-better version of Cam, who could then move into a backup role or be traded if/when the Pats got someone better.

But NE probably shouldn't be giving up assets for a QB unless they are at least reasonably sure the person they are getting is the QB of the future for at least the medium-term, and I'm not sure they could say that about Hurts.
 

Super Nomario

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I think he played a lot better than okish.
He played 4 games as a starter, and faced 2 really good defenses in that time. His comp% was bad, but in basically every category he significantly outplayed Carson Wentz:

Wentz Hurts
ANY/A 3.98 5.85
TD%+ 90 94
ANY/A+ 71 94
INT%+ 78 91
SACK%+ 67 85
As the + numbers indicate, he was below-average passing in every respect. But it doesn't really matter - no matter how good you think it was, it's four games. Four games is how you get stuff like Drew Lock, starting QB. It is not a large enough sample that it should move the needle more than a little from whatever your predraft evaluation was. There are tons of guys like Kyle Allen who started their career with a handful of hot starts and tailed off rapidly thereafter.

I don't even think the Eagles - who don't have to pay anything for Hurts - should anoint him their starting QB in 2021. It would be insane for another team to give up a first to make him their starter.
 

Cellar-Door

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As the + numbers indicate, he was below-average passing in every respect. But it doesn't really matter - no matter how good you think it was, it's four games. Four games is how you get stuff like Drew Lock, starting QB. It is not a large enough sample that it should move the needle more than a little from whatever your predraft evaluation was. There are tons of guys like Kyle Allen who started their career with a handful of hot starts and tailed off rapidly thereafter.

I don't even think the Eagles - who don't have to pay anything for Hurts - should anoint him their starting QB in 2021. It would be insane for another team to give up a first to make him their starter.
I don't think a team should, but I think that is the price the Eagles should ask for. Which is why he isn't going anywhere.
 

54thMA

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Once Wentz crashed and burned, Pederson was doomed. They invested an aircraft carrier's worth of money in the guy and Pederson was supposed to be a QB whisperer and instead Wentz played stupid hero ball.
So what do you think the Eagles to with Wentz; if they keep both him and Hurts, what happens if Hurts beats him out for the starting job, you cannot have him as a back up with that salary right? If they ship Hurts out and he thrives elsewhere and Wentz under a new coach still cannot get his act together..................oh boy.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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So what do you think the Eagles to with Wentz; if they keep both him and Hurts, what happens if Hurts beats him out for the starting job, you cannot have him as a back up with that salary right? If they ship Hurts out and he thrives elsewhere and Wentz under a new coach still cannot get his act together..................oh boy.
They have to keep Wentz. His cap hit is crippling if traded. They have to use the next season to make a last ditch effort to get him turned around.
 

Super Nomario

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They have to keep Wentz. His cap hit is crippling if traded. They have to use the next season to make a last ditch effort to get him turned around.
It's crippling if he's cut, it's about even if he's traded. This is their last chance to get out of any of the guaranteed money, but they might decide just to roll with him again for 2021.
 

Cellar-Door

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They have to keep Wentz. His cap hit is crippling if traded. They have to use the next season to make a last ditch effort to get him turned around.
they can trade him, the hit will suck, but not that badly. I don't think they will, but the question they have to ask is... what can we get now. What can we get if he loses the job to Hurts again, and what do we think the odds that happens are.

I bet they keep him, and he starts next year. If they fix up the line I could see him being pretty decent.
 

BaseballJones

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If they trade him and roll with Hurts and a vet min as a backup, they're spending about $25ish (I don't know the exact number but it's around there) on the QB position. If Hurts ends up being good, that's reasonable money for that position. If Hurts stinks, then it's a huge overpay, but at least they'd end up getting some picks or something for their trouble.
 

DJnVa

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It's crippling if he's cut, it's about even if he's traded. This is their last chance to get out of any of the guaranteed money, but they might decide just to roll with him again for 2021.
What's the difference in cost? The spotrac contract page doesn't show the difference, just a large amount of "dead money".

 

Cellar-Door

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What's the difference in cost? The spotrac contract page doesn't show the difference, just a large amount of "dead money".

Cut is $59.2M
Trade is $33.8M
 

BaseballJones

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Indy's in the best shape, from that plot. The Pats are in pretty good shape, because they're in great cap shape, and their record is ALMOST in the upper right quadrant.

But that graph doesn't tell us how many holes these teams need to fill. Which is a huge part of the equation, and I guess, though, is also a matter of subjective opinion. This graph is about the hard facts.
 

lostjumper

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Kansas City is interesting. They are an exceptional team, but they have a lot of young guys that are going to get paid starting next season. And Mahomes new contract comes online in 2022 I believe. It will be interesting to see how they navigate the salary cap in the next few years. I know Brady was underpaid for many of his years with the Pats, but cap management is still an under rated part of the Patriots success. You shouldn't be able able to have a 20 year dynasty in the salary cap era. Ask Philadelphia or the Saints if the "cap is crap". Sure you can kick the can down the road, but eventually you have to pay it.
 

BaseballJones

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Kansas City is interesting. They are an exceptional team, but they have a lot of young guys that are going to get paid starting next season. And Mahomes new contract comes online in 2022 I believe. It will be interesting to see how they navigate the salary cap in the next few years. I know Brady was underpaid for many of his years with the Pats, but cap management is still an under rated part of the Patriots success. You shouldn't be able able to have a 20 year dynasty in the salary cap era. Ask Philadelphia or the Saints if the "cap is crap". Sure you can kick the can down the road, but eventually you have to pay it.
Yep. It's easy to talk about Mahomes and how KC will win multiple championships. And of course, they might. But they will soon be seriously needing to pay some people. Much harder to win when you have the same QB (Mahomes) suddenly making 10x the amount of money he was before. It's one thing if you're paying 10x for a massive improvement, but it's actually 10x for the same player. So they may still be great because Mahomes is amazing, but it will definitely be harder for them.
 

BigSoxFan

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Yep. It's easy to talk about Mahomes and how KC will win multiple championships. And of course, they might. But they will soon be seriously needing to pay some people. Much harder to win when you have the same QB (Mahomes) suddenly making 10x the amount of money he was before. It's one thing if you're paying 10x for a massive improvement, but it's actually 10x for the same player. So they may still be great because Mahomes is amazing, but it will definitely be harder for them.
And Kelce turns 32 in October. At some point in the next few years, the Chiefs will need to find a new straw to stir the drink.
 

BaseballJones

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And in 2022, Tyreek's cap hit will be $20.685 million. Which I'm sure they'll extend and restructure, but still.

In 2021, Frank Clark's cap hit is $25 million . !!!!
Chris Jones' hit will be $21 million.
Honey Badger's hit will be $19.7 million.

Man oh man.
 

rodderick

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Yep. It's easy to talk about Mahomes and how KC will win multiple championships. And of course, they might. But they will soon be seriously needing to pay some people. Much harder to win when you have the same QB (Mahomes) suddenly making 10x the amount of money he was before. It's one thing if you're paying 10x for a massive improvement, but it's actually 10x for the same player. So they may still be great because Mahomes is amazing, but it will definitely be harder for them.
At one point I thought it was a done deal that Aaron Rodgers would win at least 3-4 Super Bowls in his career as well, especially after he followed up his Super Bowl win with a 15-1 MVP season. Didn't end up working out that way. It's really, really, really hard to win consistently in the NFL, and I want to see what Mahomes can do without Hill and Kelce before annointing him as the second coming and a guy who will be a title contender for 15 years.
 

Mystic Merlin

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At one point I thought it was a done deal that Aaron Rodgers would win at least 3-4 Super Bowls in his career as well, especially after he followed up his Super Bowl win with a 15-1 MVP season. Didn't end up working out that way. It's really, really, really hard to win consistently in the NFL, and I want to see what Mahomes can do without Hill and Kelce before annointing him as the second coming and a guy who will be a title contender for 15 years.
Just look at the last two seasons. They came VERY close to winning two titles, not winning any titles, or winning a title in ‘18 rather than ‘19. We saw this with the BB era Patriots, who could have anywhere from like eleven Super Bowl titles or even zero Super Bowl titles.

It is hard to build a roster that can contend for any titles, but it is almost impossible to sustain it over ten to fifteen years since you need to roll over your roster several times while generally picking low in the draft and not having tons of cap space since the great and good players you have a disproportionate share of relative to the league are gonna get paid.

They do have the generational QB, which IMO is a necessary but not sufficient condition to do it. They’ll need to make hundreds of correct personnel and staff decisions to even threaten something as outrageous as 9 Super Bowl berths in 15-20 years, and hope that Mahomes is as insane as Brady and plays into his 40s or find ANOTHER generational QB in 12-15 years that they luck into maturing at the same time Mahomes retires or falls apart.
 

rodderick

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Just look at the last two seasons. They came VERY close to winning two titles, not winning any titles, or winning a title in ‘18 rather than ‘19. We saw this with the BB era Patriots, who could have anywhere from like eleven Super Bowl titles or even zero Super Bowl titles.

It is hard to build a roster that can contend for any titles, but it is almost impossible to sustain it over ten to fifteen years since you need to roll over your roster several times while generally picking low in the draft and not having tons of cap space since the great and good players you have a disproportionate share of relative to the league are gonna get paid.

They do have the generational QB, which IMO is a necessary but not sufficient condition to do it. They’ll need to make hundreds of correct personnel and staff decisions to even threaten something as outrageous as 9 Super Bowl berths in 15-20 years, and hope that Mahomes is as insane as Brady and plays into his 40s or find ANOTHER generational QB in 12-15 years that they luck into maturing at the same time Mahomes retires or falls apart.
The AFC looks to be stacked with good young QBs as well. It'll be a bloodbath in the next decade.
 

BaseballJones

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I mean, just look at Montana's tenure with SF. The guy who, before Brady, was the GOAT.

He played from 1979-1992 in SF. That's 14 years. One was his rookie year where he hardly played, and he missed basically two other seasons due to injury. Which, of course, happened to Brady as well (1 year), and which could happen too Mahomes. So in the other 11 seasons, SF:

- Won the division 8 times.
- Went to the playoffs 9 times.
- Won the Super Bowl 4 times.

And that was (1) in an era when they could really keep teams together, and (2) the greatest run in NFL history over such a long period of time, until Brady came along.

If Mahomes ended up having the same kind of success Montana did, that would be remarkable. And if he did, he'd still fall FAR short of Brady's accomplishments.
 

67YAZ

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Anyone else surprised that Pace and Nagy haven't been fired yet in CHI?
Nope, not with the McCaskeys still in charge. They prize stability and have just come off of two short-tenured coaches (Trestman for 2 years & Fox for 3).

There's a rumor that the team gave Pace a one-year extension so that his contract lines up with Nagy's, meaning the Bears could clear out the front office and coaching ranks after 2021 with a manageable financial hit.
 
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Rudy's Curve

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Nagy has made the playoffs two of three years (although this one was a participation trophy) and although he's not the GM, he inherited Trubisky. I don't think he should be on the chopping block. Pace, on the other hand, has presided over a largely unsuccessful six-year period and drafted Trubisky. He should go, which means Nagy would go too as new GMs generally don't inherit coaches. Putting that aside though and just on merit alone, Nagy deserves to stay.
 
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67YAZ

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Nagy has made the playoffs two of three years (although this one was a participation trophy) and although he's not the GM, he inherited Trubisky. I don't think he should be on the chopping block. Pace, on the other hand, has presided over a largely unsuccessful six-year period and drafted Trubisky. He should go, which means Nagy would go too as new GMs generally don't inherit coaches but putting that aside and just on merit alone Nagy deserves to stay.
Pace has been strong in the draft outside of the first round, but whiffs on Kevin White, Leonard Floyd, and Trubisky really hurt. Roquan Smith looks like a solid long-term starter, but you'd hope for more from #8.

The bigger issue is that the Khalil Mack trade bill is starting to come due - between 2019 & 2020, Bears gave up 2 firsts, a third, and a sixth while getting back a second and a seventh. Right now is supposed to be the window where Mack is playing to his contract value, the QB is on a rookie deal, and the missing first-rounders aren't a big deal yet. But moving into 2021, Mack has a $26.6m cap hit ($37.4m dead money!), the QB position need to be filled, and only about $5m in cap space at the moment. (They have a reasonable path to another $20m with cuts, restructures/extensions for Hicks & Jackson, and roll over money.) Pace is going to be working around the edges for the most part, and a new GM could have a much better cap situation to start with in 2022.
 

Captaincoop

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Indy's in the best shape, from that plot. The Pats are in pretty good shape, because they're in great cap shape, and their record is ALMOST in the upper right quadrant.

But that graph doesn't tell us how many holes these teams need to fill. Which is a huge part of the equation, and I guess, though, is also a matter of subjective opinion. This graph is about the hard facts.
Not having a quarterback, not having a high draft pick, and not having cap space - that's also a bad place to be. I'm looking at you, Bears.