2021 coaching carousel

johnmd20

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Texans. Man, it's going to take at least 3 years to climb out of this hole BOB left the team in. They have no money, they have no picks, and the team right now sucks. So they can't get better in the short term.
 

Cellar-Door

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Here, alphabetically, are the six openings. I suppose there's an outside chance that Nagy is added once the Bears are one-and-done, or Jerry Jones gets pissed or there's a surprise retirement, or Fagio is let go by the new Broncos GM, but for now this is it.

How do you rank them them in terms of great situation for coaches who might have a choice?

Chargers
Falcons
Jaguars
Jets
Lions
Texans
So a big part of some of these is going to be the GM spot, assuming you get a good but not great GM at the places with openings.....

Chargers- Look like you have a QB on a cheap deal, have picks, have cap space, low pressure, fairly patient owner,
Jags - Owner is a wildcard, and QB prospects can flame out, but you have TONs of cap space, lots of picks, with GM can build the type of team you want easily
Texans- Everything about this situation is generally shitty, except you have one of the best QBs in the league locked up
Lions- In reality this would be lower because I have no faith in the GM search, but hypothetically, you have a lot of talent on offense including QB, some picks, bit of space, only 1 good team in division
Jets- Cap space, picks would be higher.. BUT? What are you doing at QB, also the franchise is cursed, the fanbase/media market is Knicks' level toxic, and your owner seems like he's awful.
Falcons- Good owner, nice stadium.... the talent is aging and expensive, the cap is an absolute disaster, you need to blow it up, and you're likely to get the knife in the back during the rebuild to buy the GM more time.
 

SoxJox

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247Sports reports Report: Urban Meyer sets price tag to coach in NFL

The latest odds suggest that Meyer is a big favorite to be the new Jacksonville Jaguars coach rather than turn it down.

Meyer will cost a hefty penny, particularly since he’s coming out of retirement and was paid handsomely during his stints at Florida and Ohio State. According to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, Meyer wants a hefty contract to return to football in 2021.

According to Florio’s report, Meyer would want more than another new coach, Matt Rhule, who was paid $9 million a year with the Carolina Panthers and it’s a big number.


“A league source tells PFT that Meyer is looking for $12 million per year,” Florio wrote. “That’s not a crazy number, given the manner in which the market is going. And plenty of NFL coaches are getting paid in the eight figures annually.”
 

rodderick

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Texans. Man, it's going to take at least 3 years to climb out of this hole BOB left the team in. They have no money, they have no picks, and the team right now sucks. So they can't get better in the short term.
Honestly, at what point do they seriously consider dealing Watson for an obscene haul and just implode the team for a full rebuild? I mean, he was amazing this season and they won 4 games.
 

E5 Yaz

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Honestly, at what point do they seriously consider dealing Watson for an obscene haul and just implode the team for a full rebuild? I mean, he was amazing this season and they won 4 games.
That's honestly the only way ... if they find a GM with enough stones to do it.
 

luckiestman

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That's honestly the only way ... if they find a GM with enough stones to do it.
I don’t know man, I would exhaust all other options first. Do they have no way to loosen up cap room?
 

Mystic Merlin

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They can clear 17.5M in cap space by trading Watt. If he’s good with getting dealt to a contender for a pick or two, it will happen. And he doesn’t strike me as a guy with a ton of games left on his odometer or patience to ride it out any further in Houston.
 

E5 Yaz

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I don’t know man, I would exhaust all other options first. Do they have no way to loosen up cap room?
I'll admit to a little wish-fulfillment in my post. My do-nothing boss is a Texans fan. They can't sink low enough for me.
 

DanoooME

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I don’t know man, I would exhaust all other options first. Do they have no way to loosen up cap room?
They can cut the following and get cap savings. Question is: would they?

JJ Watt - $0 dead money, $17.5M cap savings (doubtful they cut, maybe a trade?)
Brandin Cooks - $0 dead money, $12M cap savings (pretty much a lock)
Bradley Roby - $2M dead, $8.25M cap savings (maybe?)
Benardnick McKinney - $1.5M dead, $7M cap savings (probably)
David Johnson - $2.1M dead, $6.9M cap savings (should, but probably won't because of Hopkins trade)
Nick Martin - $2.5M dead, $6.25M savings (doubtful)
Duke Johnson - $0 dead, $5.15M savings (another lock)

There's another 7 guys with cap savings of $1.75M to $3.25M

The problem is they only have 48 players under contract now, so they could save $63M by cutting all of the guys listed above, but they still need to fill all those roster spots and more. Really, they should find a trade partner for Watt and dump everyone else but Martin.
 

sodenj5

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I don’t know man, I would exhaust all other options first. Do they have no way to loosen up cap room?
Houston might be in the basement of the AFC South for the foreseeable future.

Jacksonville has a ton of cap space and is about to get a QB that might run that division for the next decade.

Tennessee has Derek Henry and very good QB play from Tannehill.

Colts have a plus defense and depending on what they do at QB will likely be a fringe playoff team for the next few years.

So how useful is even “having Deshaun Watson and no one else” in that division when it doesn’t even seem like an incredible distinction? Like best case scenario, they’re battling for third place with Jacksonville next season.

Hard to do a full reboot when you’ve actually hit on a QB, but they’ve screwed up literally every decision since Watson and dug themselves into a hole.
 

luckiestman

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Houston might be in the basement of the AFC South for the foreseeable future.

Jacksonville has a ton of cap space and is about to get a QB that might run that division for the next decade.

Tennessee has Derek Henry and very good QB play from Tannehill.

Colts have a plus defense and depending on what they do at QB will likely be a fringe playoff team for the next few years.

So how useful is even “having Deshaun Watson and no one else” in that division when it doesn’t even seem like an incredible distinction? Like best case scenario, they’re battling for third place with Jacksonville next season.

Hard to do a full reboot when you’ve actually hit on a QB, but they’ve screwed up literally every decision since Watson and dug themselves into a hole.
I might be out on an island, but I’m keeping the QB(if it was my call)
 

sodenj5

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I might be out on an island, but I’m keeping the QB(if it was my call)
Understood, and I don’t know what the “right” answer is, but Houston is multiple players away from being relevant in that division. I think if a team makes a godfather offer for Watson, you have to at least entertain the idea.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think people are overrating how screwed HOU is. They're screwed next year, but after that they'll be fine. You don't trade Watson to move your timeline up a year.

What they should do is trade Watt, cut both D. Johnsons, restructure a few more (McKinney for example) take a few shots on cheap vet reclamation projects, tough out a bad year, then go in 2022 in decent shape.
 

j-man

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Good save on his part.

Separately, I have to think that Chargers head coaching spot is the #1 job, assuming Spanos isn't terrible to work for.
he is terrible go on any LAC fan blog stie and ask what do u think about spanos most say f*** spanos
 

E5 Yaz

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I think people are overrating how screwed HOU is. They're screwed next year, but after that they'll be fine. You don't trade Watson to move your timeline up a year.
If they don't make the right GM/Coach call this offseason, they might have to start over yet again in 2-3 years
 

j-man

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i am thinking adam peteters is the leader to be gm in denver allready worked for denver 11-14 sf 15-20 is lynch right hand man if SF wants to trade jimmy G new england might have to outbid denver and if denver NE offer the same package lynch will plob pick denver ne might have to give up their 1st to get jimmy g because stafford is too much $$$ and det will want our 9 what i hope denver does is sign jacoby brissit QB indy trade down trade simmons and end up with 2 1st for 21 and 22 this why if lock sucks denver has 2 1st and a new coach in 22 to get the qb
 
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mauf

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Jaguars have Lawrence, tons of cap space, and a patient owner. It’s a sneaky-good situation. My son (Jags fan) wants Robert Saleh but thinks he’s getting Urban Meyer.
 

dynomite

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Jaguars have Lawrence, tons of cap space, and a patient owner. It’s a sneaky-good situation. My son (Jags fan) wants Robert Saleh but thinks he’s getting Urban Meyer.
He chose... poorly.

Movie references aside, agree on the situation for the Jaguars -- CBS Sports ranks it as the most attractive head coaching vacancy in the league. The AFC South isn't terrifying (Colts looking for a new QB in the near future, Texans in cap and draft hell), and as you say the Jags will have Lawrence and 3 more picks in the 1st and 2nd rounds plus all that cap space, not to mention there's a few decent pieces on that offense. The Browns went from 0-16 to competitive pretty fast, and I think the Jags can follow suit.
 

mauf

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i am thinking adam peteters is the leader to be gm in denver allready worked for denver 11-14 sf 15-20 is lynch right hand man if SF wants to trade jimmy G new england might have to outbid denver and if denver NE offer the same package lynch will plob pick denver ne might have to give up their 1st to get jimmy g because stafford is too much $$$ and det will want our 9 what i hope denver does is sign jacoby brissit QB indy trade down trade simmons and end up with 2 1st for 21 and 22 this why if lock sucks denver has 2 1st and a new coach in 22 to get the qb
Stafford only has value if he agrees to rework his contract. He’s owed $42M for 2021-22, even apart from the $19M in dead money (not sure if that stays with the Lions or goes to his new team in case of a trade).

 

Super Nomario

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If they don't make the right GM/Coach call this offseason, they might have to start over yet again in 2-3 years
But if you punt on the QB, then you have to get the next QB right in addition to the GM / coach. Better to keep the bird in the hand instead of giving yourself more problems to solve.
 

yeahlunchbox

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It really only makes sense for the Texans to trade Watson this offseason if it's in some kind of deal for the Jets' second pick in the draft and you're completely sold on Wilson and/or Fields. Maybe getting the sixth pick if you're sold on both and one is still sitting there.
 

RedOctober3829

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It doesn't make sense at all for the Texans to trade Watson. The QB is the most important part to a franchise. If you trade Watson, you will just be looking for the next Watson. Why would anyone want to do that even if they got 3 or 4 first round picks?
 

Cellar-Door

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It doesn't make sense at all for the Texans to trade Watson. The QB is the most important part to a franchise. If you trade Watson, you will just be looking for the next Watson. Why would anyone want to do that even if they got 3 or 4 first round picks?
yep, this is the problem with every Texans trading Watson scenario...... You only trade a star QB if you think you will lose him or he'll decline a lot before your next window. Watson is locked up for many years and won't likely decline until at least 1 contract past then. You can rebuild pretty quickly in the NFL if you have QB set.
The Falcons for example might move Ryan because he's in decline and they are a mess, so this might be the last chance to get something for him and you are unlikely to compete on his current contract.
 

E5 Yaz

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But if you punt on the QB, then you have to get the next QB right in addition to the GM / coach. Better to keep the bird in the hand instead of giving yourself more problems to solve.
Yeah, you're right. As I said, this was influenced by boss-schadenfreude
 

Cellar-Door

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The Falcons CANNOT move Ryan this offseason - way too much dead money.
I meant in general, though.... I'm not so sure they can't move him. A pre-June 1 trade adds $3.5M to this year, post June 1 actually saves a lot. Either way he's gonna count for a ton on the cap this year. The Falcons are in an absolute disaster zone this year, I would not be that surprised to see them try to trade every single piece with value (Jones, Jarrett, etc.) They need to move a ton just to get under the cap and they're going to be bad no matter what. Might be worth it to take the hit on Ryan to clean things up.
 

E5 Yaz

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Here's the thing about the Falcons:

They lost 12 games ... but 8 of those loses were by 7 points or less. With a coaching staff dedicated to cleaning up the type of mistakes that led to losses like that -- and a good draft class --- you could make the case that they would be a prime candidate to be one of those teams that rebounds and makes the playoff next season.

We don't know what a Brees-less Saints team will look like over a full season.
We don't know if Brady at 44 will still have it.
We don't know how long the Carolina rebuild will be.

Saying the Falcons should tear it down and start over doesn't take into account that they were far away from being better than an 8-8 Bears playoff team
 
Here's the thing about the Falcons:

They lost 12 games ... but 8 of those loses were by 7 points or less. With a coaching staff dedicated to cleaning up the type of mistakes that led to losses like that -- and a good draft class --- you could make the case that they would be a prime candidate to be one of those teams that rebounds and makes the playoff next season.

We don't know what a Brees-less Saints team will look like over a full season.
We don't know if Brady at 44 will still have it.
We don't know how long the Carolina rebuild will be.

Saying the Falcons should tear it down and start over doesn't take into account that they were far away from being better than an 8-8 Bears playoff team
Exactly this. I don't think the Falcons can necessarily make the Super Bowl again with Ryan at QB - although if everything breaks right and they get the right coaching, they might have a puncher's chance. But this was a historically good 4-12 team (which had a -1 point differential going into Sunday) that will be on everyone's list of dark horses for the playoffs next year. The Brees/Payton Saints have kept finding ways to avoid their cap hell from really affecting their ability to put good teams on the field, and the Falcons probably can as well for at least another year or two. (Of course, the Saints could be in serious cap hell next year without Brees...which is both a long-term cautionary tale for the Falcons and a short-term reason why they might want to go for it now.)
 

Super Nomario

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Here's the thing about the Falcons:

They lost 12 games ... but 8 of those loses were by 7 points or less. With a coaching staff dedicated to cleaning up the type of mistakes that led to losses like that -- and a good draft class --- you could make the case that they would be a prime candidate to be one of those teams that rebounds and makes the playoff next season.

We don't know what a Brees-less Saints team will look like over a full season.
We don't know if Brady at 44 will still have it.
We don't know how long the Carolina rebuild will be.

Saying the Falcons should tear it down and start over doesn't take into account that they were far away from being better than an 8-8 Bears playoff team
Some fair points about their record underperforming, but Ryan is no spring chicken himself, Julio is getting up there, Keanu Neal is a FA, and they are $25 MM over the projected cap despite having only 31 players under contract for 2021 (the fewest in the NFL). They will also have a new GM, who may or may not prioritize contending in the near term versus getting things in order for a later run.
 

BigSoxFan

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Oh, and I really think I'm going to start a Falcons-specific 2021 thread once they have a new coach and/or GM, if for no other reason than to give everyone a single place to laugh at me.
We just spent 16 weeks watching Cam Newton throw ground ball practice to our crappy WRs. We're in no position to laugh anymore.

P.S. Foye Oluokun is a stud. Great pick for #200!
 

E5 Yaz

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Some fair points about their record underperforming, but Ryan is no spring chicken himself, Julio is getting up there, Keanu Neal is a FA, and they are $25 MM over the projected cap despite having only 31 players under contract for 2021 (the fewest in the NFL). They will also have a new GM, who may or may not prioritize contending in the near term versus getting things in order for a later run.
True ... I was just responding to the idea that they wre a complete Dumpster fire. Seven teams made the playoffs this year that didn't last year. I can see the Falcons doing that kind of turnaround, if only in one last hurrah for Ryan and Julio
 

Cellar-Door

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Here's the thing about the Falcons:

They lost 12 games ... but 8 of those loses were by 7 points or less. With a coaching staff dedicated to cleaning up the type of mistakes that led to losses like that -- and a good draft class --- you could make the case that they would be a prime candidate to be one of those teams that rebounds and makes the playoff next season.

We don't know what a Brees-less Saints team will look like over a full season.
We don't know if Brady at 44 will still have it.
We don't know how long the Carolina rebuild will be.

Saying the Falcons should tear it down and start over doesn't take into account that they were far away from being better than an 8-8 Bears playoff team
The problem is, they can't run that team back, they're way over the cap next year and they don't have a lot of easy cuts to get under the cap:

That's what I mean when I say it's a disaster. This year's team was mediocre, but next year's team is going to have to be worse since the only way to get under the cap is to just take a chainsaw to your defense, or renegotiate a TON of deals, which seems tough unless you are going to guarantee a ton of money in 2022 for a worse version of the current team.
 

Cellar-Door

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So Wentz is likely staying.
Lot of NFL people seem to think Wentz is the starter next year now.

That was my takeaway although who knows. Wonder if they would deal Hurts.
Have to think they'd want a 1st for him. He's super cheap because of his draft slot, and you aren't getting a better backup for less. Especially since Wentz might be broken, I think they hold him.
 

BigSoxFan

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Lot of NFL people seem to think Wentz is the starter next year now.

Have to think they'd want a 1st for him. He's super cheap because of his draft slot, and you aren't getting a better backup for less. Especially since Wentz might be broken, I think they hold him.
Yup. I think they would want a 1st and more for Hurts. If Philly offered me Hurts for #15 and a 2022 2nd or 3rd, I think I would pull the trigger. You'd be getting a much better version of Cam (2020 version) on a cheap deal and could go nuts in FA to fill rest of the roster.