2021 Cleveland PTBNLs

Sad Sam Jones

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The Cleveland Indians are entering a full-blown identity crisis. Not only are they about to pull off a level of roster turnover rarely seen outside of Miami, it's also quite likely an announcement will be made at some point that the ballclub on the corner of Carnegie and Ontario will cease to be named the Indians after the 2021 season.

Even offering to rename the team the Cleveland Lindors won't be enough to re-sign their star shortstop. It's a virtual lock he won't play another game in an Indians uniform. That also means that one or two members of next year's roster won't be known until they're named as part of the package for Lindor. At this point, only Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes and Roberto Perez are guaranteed to repeat as members of next year's starting lineup, and even Ramirez might not be playing the same position. They've already parted ways with their closer and the rumor mill has them dealing another starting pitcher. Even if COVID-19 never existed, 2021 was going to be the Dolans' fourth straight year of cutting payroll. It might be the most they spend in free agency during that stretch though, simply because of all the holes they'll need to fill.

Looking at the positional breakdown:

Catcher Roberto Perez was the only team option Cleveland picked up ($5.5M). Sandy Leon is gone, as Cleveland tripled down on defensive whizzes who can't hit when they acquired Austin Hedges midseason. With Perez's next team option worth $7M, this is clearly Hedges' apprentice year before he takes over in 2022.
First Base Carlos Santana's $17.5M option was declined, but he's the one veteran I wouldn't be surprised to see return. When Santana left in free agency in 2018 both sides quickly regretted it. If he's willing to take a large enough pay cut, Cleveland could decide this is one spot not worth puzzling over. However, Bobby Bradley has tape measure power if he can make contact often enough and repeating AAA isn't likely to benefit him.
Second Base Cesar Hernandez used his one year deal in Cleveland to price himself out of town. Yu Chang has served as the never-used emergency shortstop for the past couple of years, but even if he can hit MLB pitching, he doesn't project as an everyday guy on that side of the bag. The other possibility is moving Ramirez back to second.
Shortstop Chang could get an opportunity to play his way off the position, but with a deep market for serviceable shortstops, it's likely Cleveland signs a stopgap while the prospects sort out a pecking order. Cleveland has an abundance of promising shortstops in the system, but none of them have proven themselves beyond A-ball yet.
Third Base Jose Ramirez will anchor the infield and the heart of the lineup. It's been said in the past he prefers third base, but it's possible they move him to second for the benefit of top prospect Nolan Jones.
Left Field Aside from a short playoff hot streak, Josh Naylor hasn't looked like a long-term answer, but since Cleveland's long list of outfielders have all looked like 4th outfielders at best this should be Naylor's to lose. Jones is expected to outfield reps in spring training, an experiment that could extend into the first month or two of the season before getting a shot in Cleveland.
Center Field Delino DeShields still has one more year of team control, although they would certainly like to see Oscar Mercado take the position if he can hit somewhat higher than .128. Even with the trade of Greg Allen, there's no shortage of shit to through against the center field wall with Bradley Zimmer and Daniel Johnson.
Right Field A platoon of Jordan Luplow/Tyler Naquin should in theory create a pretty good player.
Designated Hitter Franmil Reyes at DH is one thing they don't need to ponder. There was a lot of discussion last off-season that Reyes could be more useful spending some time in the outfield. He ended up playing 5 innings of defense. If Bradley isn't the starting 1B, he'll wait in the wings for emergency DH at-bats.

Pitching Staff:
Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie can be expected to take regular turns in the rotation. Even with mass turnover and a lineup that will be searching for legit major leaguers, this rotation should keep Cleveland from bottoming out. A playoff spot seems unlikely, but 3rd place almost seems guaranteed.

What upsets me the most with ownership are the rumors that Carlos Carrasco will be traded. His team friendly contract (2/$24M or 3/$38M) makes him valuable, but it's also what makes it a crime to trade him. Carrasco turned down the potential to make a lot more money a few years ago by signing an extension that looked like it would give him the opportunity to retire as an Indian. No player is more involved in the community. Now he's seen as just another trade chip... one more opportunity to throw a log on the outfield fire.

If Carrasco is traded, Cal Quantrill would get the first shot at the rotation, but there's a long list for tryouts: Logan Allen, Scott Moss, Jefry Rodriguez and Mr. Replacement Level Adam Plutko.

There's no point discussing a bullpen in detail this early, but even with Hand out it's a more stable facet of the team than the starting lineup. James Karinchak will get the opportunity to grab the closer's role, with Nick Wittgren as the fallback option. Emanuel Clase, the only thing of possible value in the Corey Kluber trade, will return from his PED suspension to make his Cleveland debut. Oliver Perez hits free agency but should be affordable if the two sides are interested in staying together. He does offer a leadership role to a very young team.
 

jon abbey

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Awesome rundown, thank you! Two questions:

1) I’ve read that Naylor is borderline unplayable in the OF, might they be thinking of him at 1B?

2) Is the pipeline of SPs ready to immediately step in finally running dry? So crazy they could trade Kluber, Bauer and Clevinger since July 2019 and still have a strong rotation.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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I've been down on Naylor. I didn't like the Padres as a trading partner for Clevinger and was hoping the Braves would give up Pache or Waters. I also felt they might be too attached to him because his younger brother Bo was already one of their top prospects. However, the more projections I read about Naylor, I think I should probably give him a little more rope. There's reason to think he can improve in the outfield, so I'd stick with that for now. He was a first baseman until the Padres blocked that path with the Eric Hosmer signing, so moving back to first should require less prep. Bobby Bradley will sink or swim as a first baseman. His slowness makes him incapable of any other defensive position. There are really no other top prospects in the system who project at that position (Nolan Jones is a capable 3B and would have to fail as both that and a corner OF before landing at 1B), so if Bradley strikes out too much to stick in the majors, it becomes Naylor's fallback position sooner or later. Jake Bauers is another wildcard LF/1B, but he just makes me less confident in Naylor with Cleveland's poor track record of identifying major league outfielders.

Carlos Santana has always been my binky, so I'm probably irrational in my thoughts they can reach another deal. There are few Indians I've hated more than Casey Blake, so getting a top prospect for him had me hooked from the start. Then Santana's first full season in the organization earned him an Eastern League MVP back in the days when I was attending around 15 games a year at Akron.

I've given up on my abilities to scout Cleveland pitching. I never thought Kluber would stick in the rotation. I felt Clevinger's lack of command as an older prospect would prevent him from being more than a mid-rotation guy. Just a few months ago I'd have sworn Civale was a much better pitcher than Plesac. I always liked Bieber but never foresaw staff ace status let alone a Cy Young. I'll go so far as to say if McKenzie stays healthy, he should give them another above-average starter. Logan Allen and Scott Moss should be two more starting projects for them, but Jefry Rodriguez's reliance on a heavy sinker seems to scream bullpen. I don't worry about their depth, but it does seem like the arrival of another top-half-of-the-rotation starter is at least 2-3 years away (Ethan Hankins or Daniel Espino). Sam Hentges could be a good test for their Midas touch... 6'6", 245 lb. lefty in the upper minors they were really high on in Spring 2019, but he's been a complete disaster.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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Another part of Cleveland's identity crisis I completely blanked on is likely not knowing who the manager is until January. Terry Francona has two years remaining on his contract and still wants to manage, but the health issues that limited him to managing 14 games in 2020 may not allow it. Since Sandy Alomar is on the staff as heir apparent, and has turned down interview requests from other organizations, they'll give Francona as much time to recuperate as possible before a decision needs to be made. Alomar will probably serve as bench coach if Francona returns as Brad Mills is taking a smaller role and transitioning towards retirement.

Alomar generally drew positive reviews as the interim manager in 2020, although I don't really see it. Most of my complaints regarded his bullpen usage, so at least that seems like something he could improve on, but I think a lot of the praise was carry over from his popularity in Cleveland during a honeymoon period as manager. If they are still going to use five or six subpar outfielders though, I'd like to see stricter platoon usage.

Minority ownership has also been an issue over the past year with no solution in sight. John Sherman bought in to the Indians ownership in 2016 with the intention of gradually increasing his 20% share until he took over the Dolan's controlling interest. However, in 2019 he jumped at the chance to purchase his hometown Royals (he unsuccessfully tried to purchase the team prior to purchasing his stake in Cleveland). Sherman's share of the Indians -- worth something in the neighborhood of $200 million -- is now in escrow. Ownership now needs to find someone during baseball's financial crisis who wants to invest that much money in a team, preferably with local ties, who is fine with being a low key silent partner, at least short-term until a plan like Sherman had can be worked out. The other option, the Dolan family purchasing the 20%, probably means the team budget shrinks even more.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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The Indians have already subtracted a number of players from last season's roster, but have not added anyone who is more than a flyer to make next year's roster.

Out:
Carlos Santana (signed with Royals)
Tyler Naquin (non tendered)
Delino DeShields (non tendered)
Jefry Rodriguez (non tendered)
Adam Cimber (traded for cash)

Bobby Bradley might have the best combination of upside and readiness to replace Santana at 1B. However, Jake Bauers is out of options and they may not be ready to admit they whiffed badly on the return for Yandy Diaz. Word is they see Bauers strictly as a 1B now. I believe they really want to see Josh Naylor excel in the outfield, but 1B is always a fallback plan.

Naquin has often been a useful platoon against RHP when healthy -- an improvement on Lonnie Chisenhall -- and it was a little surprising to see the team part ways with him simply because he'd been around for so long. He also had a penchant for big plays (SEE: walk-off inside-the-park home run), but he's never matched his 2016 rookie season, which even at the time was considered flukish.

The rest of these players are unlikely to be missed. I think Rodriguez still has potential as a reliever but is out of options. DeShields was subtraction by addition when he was acquired, as the last thing they needed was another proven non-starter in the outfield. Cimber's a ROOGY whose usefulness was eliminated by the 3-batter rule.

I think a significant piece or two of 2021 will remain unknown until Lindor is traded, and I don't expect that to happen soon. It makes more sense to wait out a lot of free agency and see what contenders become desperate. The early rumors have focused on the Jays and Mets, and while it's best to focus on talent over need, I'll be surprised if the eventual deal doesn't result in an immediate starting outfielder. The Indians might look like the desperate team on the surface, dealing 1 year of a star at a time when teams are scared about revenue, but there are a couple of encouraging things for them: (1) They could still package a starter with Lindor for a big return, and they have a variety to fit any need -- Carrasco or Civale or (I hope not) Plesac or McKenzie. Also, (2) the White Sox just gave up a better piece (Dunning) than they should have for Lance Lynn, so the rental market may not be as bad as people claim.

Cleveland has added three players to the 40-man roster who could make their MLB debut in 2021: (1) Nolan Jones, their top prospect who will likely concentrate on learning the outfield in the spring (or failing that, first base), and could break in by midseason. (2) Eli Morgan is an undersized starter who's had good success with one of the best changeups in the minors. I think he's more likely to be a reliever in the majors and could climb the ladder quickly in that role. (3) Ernie Clement is a slap-hitter but a good middle infielder with plus bat-to-ball skills and could find himself in the mix on a team unlikely to hand out a major league deal to a utility infielder. He's unlikely to ever be more than that.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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With ten days remaining before opening day, it seems we can now name at least 21 of the players to be named later. Still up for grabs are a spot in center field, a likely utility infielder, the 5th starter and two spots in the bullpen. It seems all but official that Ben Gamel will open the season splitting time with Bradley Zimmer. I'm not a fan of Gamel, who seems like a lesser Tyler Naquin, but Oscar Mercado has gotten too deep inside his head to win the job in center and they aren't going to have Daniel Johnson piling up service time sitting on the bench. I'd be surprised if one of those two doesn't force Gamel's release by the beginning of summer though.

One of the bench spots will be occupied by Amed Rosario unless they trade the guy they never should have acquired in the first place. I think the plan in February was to start Rosario at short while manipulating Gimenez's service time, but the latter has proven to be so much better they simply couldn't justify that and named Gimenez the starter before March was half over. Rosario also doesn't look prepared to work himself into the center field mix just yet, but will continue to get looks there. The team is running out of time to find out if Yu Chang is a capable major leaguer as he enters his last option year, but it would probably be best to trade him ASAP for something more useful than a couple of at-bats per week backing up guys who are going to start as much as possible. Chang leads the team with 4 home runs this spring but has always struggled to put the ball in play.

This is my best guess at how the position players shake out:

C: Roberto Perez, Austin Hedges
1B: Bobby Bradley
2B: Cesar Hernandez
SS: Andres Gimenez
3B: Jose Ramirez
UT: Amed Rosario, Yu Chang
LF: Eddie Rosario
CF: Bradley Zimmer, Ben Gamel
RF: Josh Naylor, Jordan Luplow
DH: Franmil Reyes

(Not guaranteed)

Notes: Jake Bauers is out of options, but has had a spring to match the rest of his abysmal Cleveland career. Bobby Bradley is down 35 pounds, improving his agility in the field, and still crushing moonshots. He's won the first base job emphatically. I still believe trading Yandy Diaz was the right decision, but the Indians have proven to be completely incapable of identifying major league hitters in other teams' systems or develop them. It's hard to even imagine another team claiming Bauers if they remove him from the 40-man roster this time of year.

Tyler Freeman had a great spring, but the line-drive hitting middle infielder is one of the top prospects in the system and will spend the next couple of months getting comfortable at positions other than shortstop so that he'll be ready for whatever opportunity pops up this summer.

This is how the pitching staff looks right now:

SP: Shane Bieber
SP: Zach Plesac
SP: Aaron Civale
SP: Triston McKenzie
SP: Logan Allen

RP: Adam Plutko
RP: Trevor Stephan
RP: Oliver Perez
RP: Bryan Shaw
RP: Phil Maton
RP: Emmanuel Clase
RP: Nick Wittgren
RP: James Karinchak

Cal Quantrill arrived in spring training as the odds-on favorite to round out the rotation, but he's been thoroughly outpitched by Allen. Plutko has made the team based simply on being out of options, but they no longer hold any hope that there's untapped potential there, so he'll mop up innings from the pen and probably fill in the rotation as needed with Quantrill and Scott Moss.

The team has already announced Rule 5 draft pick Trevor Stephan has made the team. The former Top 10 Yankee prospect failed to find success at AA as a starter, but he looks like a major leaguer reliever with a big frame, fastball/slider combo and ability to keep it in the park. With all the youth in the pen though, it looks like they'll start the season with a couple of veteran NRIs to round things out. Bryan Shaw hasn't exactly found the fountain of youth, but it sounds like he's all but guaranteed they'll bring him back and see what happens. No lefty has emerged with a strong spring, but it's hard to believe they would cut bait this soon with Oliver Perez. Former Tigers center fielder Anthony Gose is talked about a lot but hasn't pitched any better than Perez. Kyle Nelson is the best young lefty reliever they have and will surely be on the Columbus-Cleveland shuttle this summer. Karinchak is probably going to see the most opportunities to get saves out of the gate, but for now they're simply announcing Karinchak, Wittgren and Clase as the late-inning relievers.
 

jon abbey

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I have been wondering if there is a match between CLE and NYY for Rosario, NY could send Tauchman and Andujar and a pitcher or utility infielder. CLE gets a couple of actual OF candidates, NY gets a better backup middle infielder.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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Andujar's current health issues would obviously complicate things, but if they were confident it's not a long-term issue, I'd certainly make that deal. If Rosario had been a qualified hitter last year, he'd have had the 3rd highest strike percentage in the game and been 12th in fewest pitches per plate appearance. I just don't see much upside for a guy who's been a big disappointment in the field and shows no signs of ever developing a little plate discipline.

I'm disgusted with Cleveland's two roster moves today, handing the first base job to Jake Bauers and also sending Bradley Zimmer down. Bauers "won" the first base job simply by being out of options. Bobby Bradley has been one of the best players in camp, Bauers one of the worst. He's even been the worst of the two in the field and aside from a flukish walk rate has given no reason for optimism. Now they're just wasting development time for Bradley.

Rosario is going to be turning fly balls into extra-base hits out in center field. Despite a strong spring and being far and away Cleveland's best center fielder, Zimmer is being demoted to start the year. He was a gold glove caliber outfielder when he came up in 2017 but streaky at the plate. After getting demoted early in 2018, he essentially lost two years of critical development time to a shoulder injury, and then because of the COVID altered schedule last year never had a chance to get regular at-bats anywhere. Instead, he loses his roster spot to Ben Gamel, a dime-a-dozen player with no plus tools, who also doesn't fit the roster as a platoon partner with Rosario since he has pretty significant reverse splits in his career. This all just seems like a waste of time until they're forced to face the reality of what they have in a month or two anyway.

I think I was right with my bullpen predictions -- it seems those 8 have all made the team -- but I'm not certain what they'll do about the rotation. They have 5 scheduled off-days in April, so there's actually no need for a 5th starter. They could still fill out the staff the same or carry another reliever. Barring early rainouts that could wipe out off-days, they could also start the nominal 5th starter and use it as a way to limit Triston McKenzie's innings.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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I guess when Matt Harvey is your #2 starter you have room in the rotation for Plutko. Nothing has been announced yet, but with another 5 shutout innings yesterday, Logan Allen should hold a death grip on a rotation spot. Cal Quantrill was brought in for one inning of relief to follow him, which left everyone assuming he's now prepping for a bullpen role. With Scott Moss biding his time in Columbus, Plutko was irrelevant and only making the team because he's out of options.

Jake Bauers celebrated making the team yesterday with another 0-fer and two errors.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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In 5 career games against Detroit, Zach Plesac is now 3-1 with a 0.88 ERA. The Tigers have batted .181 with a .248 slg. pct. against him.

Emmanuel Clase picked up the first save of his Cleveland career. With his routine triple-digit fastball and more reliable control, I think he settles in as Cleveland's long-term closer rather than James Karinchak.

With the Padres becoming the final MLB team to finally get a no-hitter, I believe the Indians have now gone longer without one than any other team. They've taken 3 into the 9th in the past 6 years, but have come up empty since Lenny Barker's 1981 perfect game. I was 5 years old, so I don't remember it.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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Not only are the Indians much worse at identifying and developing MLB hitters, but they also seem much worse about giving them away. The pitching that has been traded or walked away has mostly fallen to injury or simply was trending in the wrong direction... can't say there's a relief pitcher here I feel bad about losing, but man is that lineup better than what they have.

Former Indians around the league:

C: Yan Gomes, Was: 29 ab, 110 OPS+ (trade)
1B: Carlos Santana, KC: 56 ab, .840 OPS (free agent)
2B: Christian Arroyo, Bos: 42 ab, .910 OPS (waivers)
SS: Francisco Lindor, NYM: 41 ab, .522 OPS (trade)
3B: Joey Wendle, 59 ab, .980 OPS (trade)
LF: Michael Brantley, 49 ab, .957 OPS (free agent)
CF: Tyler Naquin, Cin: 45 ab, 6 hr, 1.013 OPS (non-tendered)
RF: Anthony Santander, 56 ab, .551 OPS (Rule 5 draft)
DH: Yandy Diaz, TB: 53 ab, .400 OBP (trade)

C: Francisco Mejia, TB: 28 ab, .855 OPS (trade)
1B/PH: Jesus Aguilar, Mia: 51 ab, 105 OPS+ (waivers)
INF: Gio Urshela, NYY: 55 ab, 120 OPS+ (trade/cash)
OF: Clint Frazier, NYY: 37 ab, .460 OPS (trade)

SP: Trevor Bauer, LAD: 2-0, 2.42 ERA, .114 BAA (trade)
SP: Corey Kluber, NYY: 0-1, 6.10 ERA (trade)
SP: Justus Sheffield, Sea: 1-1, 4.86 (trade)
SP: Carlos Carrasco, NYM: 10-day IL (trade)
SP: Mike Clevinger, SD: 60-day IL (trade)

RP: Andrew Miller, StL: 6 ip, 7.50 ERA (free agent)
RP: Adam Plutko, Bal: 11 ip, 1.64 ERA (trade/cash)
RP: Adam Cimber, Mia: 7.2 ip, 2.35 ERA (trade/cash)
RP: Josh Tomlin, Atl: 8 ip, 4.50 ERA (free agent)
RP: Evan Marshall, CHW: 9.1 ip, 4.82 ERA (released)
RP: Drew Pomeranz, SD: 5.2 ip, 1.59 ERA (trade)
RP: Julian Merryweather, Tor: 4 ip, 0.00 ERA, 2 saves, 10-day IL (trade)
CL: Brad Hand, Was: 5 ip, 0.00 ERA, 2 saves (released)

(3B: Josh Donaldson, Min: 12 ab, 1.155 OPS... but was clearly never intended to be more than a short-term rental)
 

jon abbey

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Not sure how badly Merryweather is hurt, but he looked awesome before that, didn't realize he was an ex-Indian.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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He struggled as a starting pitching prospect for so long, in my mind I had him as a Rule 5 pick by Cleveland's former front office guys in Toronto. I'd forgotten he was actually the price for a month of Josh Donaldson.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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The Indians are now the youngest team in the majors. After releasing Oliver Perez earlier this week (who seems to be a victim of the 3-batter relief role, as Francona said with the bullpen depth they now have, he simply couldn't figure out how to use Perez), there are only three players on the roster in their thirties: Bryan Shaw (33), Roberto Perez (32) and Cesar Hernandez (31). Nick Wittgren is a month away from joining that group. Zach Plesac is their fourth oldest pitcher.

It's taken a couple of years, and he's still been a bit wild, but Shaw might finally have rediscovered his mechanics after his disastrous stint in Colorado. He's walked 6, but allowed only 2 hits in 10 innings. His goal is to stick around for at least an additional year in Cleveland and pass Cody Allen for the most relief appearances in Cleveland history.

After a near-perfect spring training, the wheels came completely off for Logan Allen over the past two weeks. He failed to record more than 7 outs in any of his last 3 starts and was demoted with an ERA of 9.19. Since Scott Moss has had a sore neck and they want to keep Cal Quantrill in the pen, Sam Hentges will make his first major league start next week. It's exciting to see a big 6'6" lefty throwing mid-90s, but he's always been a project. In his last minor league season, Hentges posted a record of 2-13 with a 5.11 ERA (worst in the Eastern League). I saw 2 or 3 of his starts and it was always just a question of when his meltdown would come. He reminded me of Chuck Lofgren, another hard-throwing lefty who also struggled when he hit the AA level at the same age a dozen years ago, which also reminds me that I know nothing about scouting because Lofgren never even got a shot in the majors.

Speaking of which, the Indians AA-affiliate at Akron has been approved for 49% capacity and I get my second vaccine shot this week. This seems like a good time to reacquaint myself with their minor league system, but I haven't had time to contact them about the 10-ticket package I should have carried over from last year.

Cleveland's first base tandem of Jake Bauers and Yu Chang is a combined .178/.228/.233 while Bobby Bradley has wasted a month of his last option year at the alternate site.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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James Karinchak strikes out the side again. He's faced 40 batters this season, allowed 2 hits and struck out 25... but he makes me long for the days before social media when I could root for a guy with blissful ignorance of his personal politics.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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After taking a no-hitter into the 8th inning, Zach Plesac was scored upon for the first time this month, snapping a stretch of 21 shutout innings. Then he nearly had the win wiped off the board when Emmanuel Clase walked the bases loaded with two out in the 9th and needed Bryan Shaw to bail him out. Clase might be the hardest thrower in the game and usually has good control, but he still has some developing to do. It appears batters struggle to barrel up the ball against him, but he doesn't miss as many bats as you'd expect.

I think I mentioned Nick Sandlin a couple of years ago along with Karinchak and Kyle Nelson when they were all passing through AA. It seems like with the 3-batter minimum, Cleveland has shied away from lefty relievers (and haven't needed a specialist since lefties can't hit Karinchak), so Nelson will be up and down but hasn't had a chance to establish himself. However, Sandlin has been impressive in his first two weeks in the majors. I think he'll soon be pitching in high leverage setup situations and bumping Nick Wittgren up further to the front end of the pen.

It seems like Sam Hentges was handed the 5th spot in the rotation by default when Logan Allen imploded because Scott Moss was dinged up, they think Cal Quantrill can help most this year in the pen, and they want to keep Hentges stretched out and developing as a starter even though he should be in AAA right now. However, with the depth of the pen, I think it would make sense to send Hentges down now and give Quantrill another shot at starting. They haven't even had to use Rule 5 pick Trevor Stephan in over two weeks. This team still doesn't have enough hitters to contend, but when the starters hand a lead over to the pen in the 6th inning, they're going to be hard to beat.
 

jon abbey

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I was going to ask about Stephan, it is hard to protect a guy you can't use (not saying that is definitely the case with him) all season if you are contending, so go CLE. :)
 

Sad Sam Jones

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When it comes to development, Cleveland has gone all-in on middle infielders, preferably shortstops, over the past few years. Of their top 30 MLB.com prospects, 10 play short and/or second. They've drafted them, signed them and even traded for a couple, to the point where if you attend one of their minor league games, all you really need to know is to pay attention to the double-play combo. The thinking is that someone will emerge as the true shortstop of the future, while others will settle in at 2B, 3B and maybe even get an outfielder or two depending on their strengths and weaknesses. Even with the Lindor trade, they acquired two MLB level shortstops (even if one should never play there). My issue with this approach is that the odds of finding a power outfield bat with it are slim and that's not only their biggest weakness but something you need to get homegrown in a market like Cleveland. I'd still like to see them draft a few more Bobby Bradley types, especially since the risk of sluggers reaching their full potential requires having a few candidates. Anyway, with the reorganization of the minors, the Indians flip-flopped their full-season A-ball teams, so their top three affiliates are all now within a two-hour drive of Cleveland. This is a breakdown mostly just to keep things straight for me:

COLUMBUS (AAA)
SS: Gabriel Arias (MLB.com #5), 21, b: R
The top prospect acquired for Mike Clevinger (BP's #87 overall prospect) and the only one already on the 40-man roster. He profiles as a long-term shortstop with 25+ HR potential and would more likely slide to 3B rather than 2B, but has already dabbled at both this year. He skipped over AA and the early results are great (.276/.432/.517) although it remains to be seen if the walk rate is newfound patience or a fluke.
2B: Owen Miller (MLB.com #16), 24, b: R Also acquired in the Clevinger deal, Miller isn't the physical specimen like others on this list, but rolls out of bed and hits line drives. Most of his experience has come at short, but he's already started at every infield position this season and seems destined for 2B. He sports a .315 career BA as a pro and will probably be the first of this group to reach Cleveland, especially if he continues his hot start (batting .500 thru 36 AB), and has drawn comparisons to Mark Loretta.

AKRON (AA)
SS: Tyler Freeman (MLB.com #2), 21, b: R
Freeman has only played 8 games above A-ball, but he was considered about as polished as a high school infielder can be when the Indians made him a supplemental 2nd round pick in 2017. He doesn't have the power or speed to profile as a star, and he'll end up at 2B, but he's hit .317 to date in his pro career with a 10.4 K%, so he's viewed with likely the highest floor (good enough to make him BA's #82 overall prospect). He and Miller are likely linked in their promotions, but could be battling for the starting 2B job in Cleveland in 2022.
2B: This is the only middle infield spot at the top four levels not occupied by a top 30 prospect, although Jose Fermin has a good track record and plenty of time, and Richard Palacios has good numbers and bloodlines (he's Rey Palacios' nephew and his brother is a Jays prospect).

LAKE COUNTY (HI-A)
SS: Brayan Rocchio (MLB.com #7), 20, b: S:
Cleveland already has an overcrowded infield at Lake County with three international signings from the 2017 class, but Rocchio currently rates the highest. He came stateside at age 17 and hit .343 in rookie ball, but then merely held his own in short-season A-ball in 2019. He's already been dubbed "The Professor" for his baseball IQ, but he makes such easy contact that he'll need to work on his plate discipline and what he becomes on the field is still all projection, although he sounds a bit more like a 2B.
2B: Aaron Bracho (MLB.com #8), 20, b: S Cleveland gave Bracho the biggest signing bonus of the three at $1.5M. He's probably the least likely to play short at a higher level and is learning to play some first base this year, but he's already shown patience at the plate and extra-base power. He's had some bad luck with injuries early his career and had a cold opening week to his season, but of this group he might be the best candidate to develop into a power-hitter at a corner position.
INF: Jose Tena (MLB.com #24), 20, b: L Although he ranks the lowest, Tena might be the most interesting player on this list right now. He wasn't projected to hit for power, but 5 of his first 10 hits this season have gone for extra bases. He will need to be more selective to continue it up the ladder though. He's a viable shortstop and a plus 2B, who also has the good baseball genes (he's Jose Uribe's nephew).

LYNCHBURG (LO-A)
SS: Gabriel Rodriguez (MLB.com #14), 19, b: R
The $2.1M signing bonus Cleveland gave Rodriguez in 2018 is their most ever for an international amateur. He's pure projection and has struggled over his first 60+ pro games, but they see a future power hitter who can use all fields. His downfall so far is overaggressiveness. He looks like a future 3B, having already started about 30% of his games there, and he also had his first start in RF last week.
2B: Angel Martinez (MLB.com #13), 19, b: S Martinez is considered another prospect playing beyond his years with a high baseball IQ and good bloodlines (he's Sandy Martinez's son), so his speed has played up, he's hit to all fields and shows a lot of patience for a teenager. The early results this year are exciting (1.073 OPS in the first week). He's more likely to retain the hit tool than the power as he climbs the ladder. He's split his time pretty evenly around the infield and has the tools and fundamentals to continue to do so.

Yet to be determined
Carson Tucker (MLB.com #12), 19, b: R
The Indians used their top pick (#23 overall) on the high school shortstop, so he has yet to make his pro debut. He's considered a good hitter with plus speed, but modest power. Although he should have a bit more pop than his older brother Cole whose played center field and shortstop for the Pirates the past two years.
Junior Sanquintin (MLB.com #28), 19, b: S The Indians signed Sanquintin to a $1.25M bonus out of the Dominican in 2018, but at this point, he's still just a bag of tools who hasn't come stateside yet. His power is ahead of his hitting and he's played the left side of the infield, but there's still too much physical projection left to determine a future home for him.
 

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JC Mejia is making a bid to become Cleveland's next "where he did he come from?" pitching success. Because he started his pro career at 17 and had his development slowed early on by some injuries, he's now in his third season on Cleveland's 40-man roster. However, he had pitched only 9 innings above A-ball when he made his MLB debut last month. He's never been a top prospect, MiLB left him out of their Top 30 this year, but there's a lot to like about him. Between the injuries and developing him early as a reliever, he's pitched fewer than 300 innings in 7 years, but he has the size (6'5", 240 lb) and 4-pitch repertoire to start. Mejia pounds the strike zone with sinkers (94 mph) and sliders and trusts his stuff. Granted, he hasn't really faced a tough jam yet in his four appearances, but he seems unphased by the level of competition or situation.

The Indians are going to be overly cautious of his usage since Mejia has only pitched 58 innings since the start of 2019, so for now he'll be more a bulk innings guy than a starter who's going to hang around and qualify for a win. He'll likely piggyback with Sam Hentges and/or Eli Morgan for the time being. Through his first 8 major league innings, he's unscored upon and has allowed only 4 base runners.
 

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Thank God Almighty, the Jake Bauers era could be over! Please let some gullible team claim him off waivers. He played 160 games for Cleveland and batted .218/.305/.352, played poor defense in both left field and at first base and has a career bWAR of -0.7. He was outplayed by Bobby Bradley in every possible way during spring training but was handed the job anyway because he was out of options. The problem with that is I believe Bradley is in his final option year and had played only 15 MLB games coming into the season, so he needs to be given a chance to play every day for at least a couple of months or they'll be facing the same problem with him next year, only he'll never have been given the shot Bauers received. It may have worked out for him though since he struggled over the first few weeks of the AAA season (or it could be that having guys waste a month at alternate sites between MLB spring training and the start of the MiLB season was just a terrible idea).
 

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The Indians select right-handed pitcher Gavin Williams with the 23rd pick of the draft.

The more I think about it, the more I like it. He didn't pitch much during his first three years of college and was definitely a project before he put it all together this spring. It makes him a little less of a sure thing, but also means his ceiling could be even higher. His size and stuff has drawn comparisons to Lance Lynn. He does turn 22 in a couple of weeks, so he'll need to stay healthy and prove that cutting his walk rate nearly in half wasn't a fluke. He doesn't live in the strike zone quite as much as Cleveland's aces of the past decade, but if there's one thing I trust the organization on it's scouting and developing pitching, and most of those guys didn't have a mid-90s heater that touches triple-digits to work with. I expect I'll see him pitching in AA Akron next year with a realistic arrival time of late 2023 in Cleveland if all goes well... or right before they trade Shane Bieber.

I'm assuming that since he has zero leverage with no college eligibility left, he'll also be under slot, so they get both upside and a larger budget for later picks. Now load up on some power/outfield bats.
 

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Did Ross Atkins slip back into Cleveland's draft room? Tuesday's results were a soul-crushing reminder of the days when Atkins and Mark Shapiro would try to sell Tribe fans on the imaginary upside of Jeremy Sowers and Beau Mills. They really haven't developed a good position player through the draft since the Francisco Lindor no-brainer pick in the 1st round in 2011, so today they gave up trying and used 10 of their first 11 picks on college pitchers. Yes, not just pitchers, but college pitchers… including three Florida Gators! I admit I haven't looked into all the players they've drafted, but there's simply no other way to look at this than being incredibly cheap. I don't see a single player who should get over slot money, and most should be below it. I liked upside of Williams with the first pick, but largely because he should have allowed them to use more pool money on the picks who followed.

Two of the pitchers are undersized lefties, including 2nd round pick Doug Nickhazy, who sounds exactly like the all polish, no stuff scouting report of Jeremy Sowers. Their 2nd round competitive balance pick Tommy Mace and 7th rounder Jack Leftwich will both turn 23 before the end of the year. They've really acquired quite the glut of pitchers who have little room for struggles or injuries in the development curve.The only position player taken was high school shortstop Jake Fox who will quickly be moved to second base. It might not be wise to draft for current major league need, but pitchers and middle infielders already made up 73% of their top 30 prospects. What they need and didn't even attempt to address is power hitters and outfielders throughout the system. Fox projects to hit for some power, but we're talking "good for second base" power, not ++ power. They need to draft a couple more Bobby Bradley types, because a team like Cleveland can't afford to go out and pay for power and those prospects come with risk, so you can't count on just one or two. Nolan Jones is currently their only top prospect who projects to have plus power (60 on the 40-80 scale), and even in his case much of that is still theoretical power. Oscar Gonzalez has been their minor league player of the year to this point and gives them some hope of another power hitter close to the majors (6'4", 240 lb. corner outfielder recently promoted to AAA), but he wasn't on the prospect radar prior to this year because his power had never translated to game situations before.
 

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Cleveland made four small-scale trades before the deadline, and notably added only three players, so they picked up a center fielder, two AA starters and avoided any clutter to this winter's 40-man roster (although Hernandez, Rosario and Johnson were free agents to be anyway).

Cesar Hernandez for Konnor Pilkington: This is the least interesting return, but after beginning his career with two rather pedestrian seasons, the left-handed Pilkington has a sub-1.00 WHP in AA and a 10.3 K/9 rate. He wasn't one of the White Sox Top 30 prospects entering the year, but he seems to have a high enough floor to get a shot at contributing in the next couple of years. Hernandez is more valuable to Chicago than he was in Cleveland because of his $6M team option for 2022. Since the White Sox traded away Nick Madrigal, they'll likely pick up that option, but Cleveland stocked its system with middle infielders through the Lindor and Clevinger trades + international signings and the draft. They won't be spending more than the MLB minimum on second basemen next year.

Eddie Rosario for Pablo Sandoval: A struggling Rosario, who's still on the IL with an abdominal strain obviously wasn't worth much. This was a pure salary dump, and even then Cleveland had to take Kung Fu Panda's contract in return. He was immediately released.

Phil Maton and Yainer Diaz for Myles Straw: I don't know if Straw will prove to be better than Oscar Mercado, who the team has soured on the past two years, and I'd prefer they not add any roadblocks to Bradley Zimmer's opportunity to play every day the rest of this season. However, Maton always caused me Tourettes when he pitched, so I can't complain. It doesn't really surprise me that Houston is interested in taking a crack at Maton, because he's one of those players who looks better on a spreadsheet than on the diamond. He gets a lot of measurable break on his pitches, but it leads to too many walks and when he has to put it over the plate he gets punished. He used to string together just enough outings to make me think we were finally seeing why he was kept around, but I stopped falling for that at least a year ago. Diaz is a .327 lifetime hitter in the low minors, but he's already a part-time DH and even if he can stay behind the plate, Cleveland has two higher rated catchers ahead of him in Bo Naylor and Bryan Lavastida. I believe Diaz also has to be added to the 40-man roster this fall.

Jordan Luplow and DJ Johnson for Peyton Battenfield: Luplow seems like the type of player who fits in Tampa Bay. He's never going to hit enough to be a regular, but he has serious power and draws a lot of walks. He's ideal as the weak side of a platoon, but he also has a hard time staying healthy. The Indians outfield has been full of Luplow types for 5+ years and watching them try to string together a useful outfield year after year is tiresome. I like Battenfield because he fits the formula of starting pitchers Cleveland has thrived on: a big-framed AA right-hander who pounds the strike zone with cutters. He's 5-0 with a 2.14 ERA, 1.6 bb/9, 12.7 k/9 across two levels of the minors this year.
 

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Myles Straw is now hitting .318/.389/.447 with 18 runs scored in 21 games with the Indians. Acquired for Phil Maton, who continues to be a mediocre middle reliever, and a DH/C who's put up a .539 OPS in Hi-A since the trade. Finally, it appears Cleveland may have acquired someone better than a 4th outfielder. The Cleveland lineup doesn't have much punch, and right now they need Bradley Zimmer in the top half of it, but I'd like to see them bat Zimmer ninth with Straw and Amed Rosario at the top and just let those three run like the '80s are back in style.