2021-22 NBA Off-season Thread

benhogan

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Do they? They play him like 26 minutes a game. & it's not like they have a surfeit of frontcourt talent.

What's his path to becoming a good basketball player? Are there any comparable current basketball players to Bagley with a similar set of skills that he could aspire to be like?

What about his 1st 3 seasons makes you think he has an upside? Who is his upside comp & how is he going to hit that level?
well they started him 42 of 43 games so, in the King's world, he's getting the spotlight introduction

I gave you Fultz but comps are always ample fodder to nitpick. Old friend Jeff Green (drafted 2yrs older) was a hollow stats guy that teams somewhat dreamed on (and traded protected 1sts for). Again Bagley's not a guy I want the Celtics to troll for but rebuilders/purgatory seems like a good home for him. The King's have been in perpetual rebuild mode so they'll most likely keep/dream on him... and continue to wear the scarlet letters "LD"
 

JM3

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well they started him 42 of 43 games so, in the King's world, he's getting the spotlight introduction

I gave you Fultz but comps are always ample fodder to nitpick. Old friend Jeff Green (drafted 2yrs older) was a hollow stats guy that teams somewhat dreamed on (and traded protected 1sts for). Again Bagley's not a guy I want the Celtics to troll for but rebuilders/purgatory seems like a good home for him. The King's have been in perpetual rebuild mode so they'll most likely keep/dream on him... and continue to wear the scarlet letters "LD"
Right...but Fultz is a completely different type of player. The only thing he has in common with Bagley is that he was also a high draft pick. We might as well use Anthony Bennett as a comp at that point.

Jeff Green has had an odd career. He's basically been similar levels of ~ok every season of his career from his 2nd through his 13th.

I don't see what about Green's career would give you faith that Bagley has a high ceiling, though, or would provide a team a positive return on a protected 1st round pick?

Teams have wasted 1sts on a wide variety of bad players over the year - like the Bucks traded a 2nd & a protected 1st to the Raptors for Grievis Vasquez.* Yes, trading a 1st for Bagley is a better idea than that, but that can't be the type of comp we're going for to show that Bagley will actually provide value to the acquiring team.

* GV played 23 games mediocrely for the Bucks before being shut down for bone spurs. He signed with the Nets in the offseason & played 3 games with them before getting cut, ending his NBA career. The Raptors players from that trade? Norman Powell & OG Anunoby.
 

Jimbodandy

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If someone was willing to pay him, he would get paid.
This is an important point.

Anyone decrying the collection of mothballs on both coasts at the moment only need remember than most of these cats were available for the whole league. Whether the Lakers or Nets meet in the finals will be determined by the likes of Lebron, Brow, Kyzuzu, Harden, and KD, not has-beens like Jordan and Aldridge or never-beens like Monk.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Looks like some of the 60s Celtics teams had at least 5 all nba guys at once. I'm not sure if it's easier now because old guys that used to be good join teams as ring chasers or back then because there were fewer teams so you'd naturally have more per team and the winning teams racked up a ton from guys just for being winning teams.
Leagues were the size of divisions and there was no FA. Same thing with the Yankees back in 50’s.
 

benhogan

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Right...but Fultz is a completely different type of player. The only thing he has in common with Bagley is that he was also a high draft pick. We might as well use Anthony Bennett as a comp at that point.

Jeff Green has had an odd career. He's basically been similar levels of ~ok every season of his career from his 2nd through his 13th.

I don't see what about Green's career would give you faith that Bagley has a high ceiling, though, or would provide a team a positive return on a protected 1st round pick?

Teams have wasted 1sts on a wide variety of bad players over the year - like the Bucks traded a 2nd & a protected 1st to the Raptors for Grievis Vasquez.* Yes, trading a 1st for Bagley is a better idea than that, but that can't be the type of comp we're going for to show that Bagley will actually provide value to the acquiring team.

* GV played 23 games mediocrely for the Bucks before being shut down for bone spurs. He signed with the Nets in the offseason & played 3 games with them before getting cut, ending his NBA career. The Raptors players from that trade? Norman Powell & OG Anunoby.
Fultz is a top pick that fell flat on his face the first few seasons, he was way worse than Bagley. That's it, nothing too exact here. No comp will be perfect. It's why I think it's fruitless to provide them, they can be nitpicked away. Heck, I think Orlando re-signing MF to $50MM was a mistake. But some people loved that deal and maybe it made sense for a team like Orlando (but certainly not for the Celtics). Anthony Bennett avg 4ppg/12mpg, started 4 NBA games, spent time in the G-League/Dunkin Donuts, and was out of the NBA after his rookie deal. I doubt that's MB3s outcome. Maybe Micheal Beasley is his future, IDK?

I really have zero idea how a 22yr old Marvin Bagley will turn out. Maybe he has not been properly used, not in the right situation, poorly coached or he's just a lazy POS with no talent? For the 3rd time, I agree his adv metrics have been atrocious during his 19-21yr old seasons. For a team like the Celtics, no thanks. BUT a late/protected 1st, when a team like OKC owns a dozen of them, has a different value proposition. Plus they have cap space galore. It all depends on the team/situation. The Magic, Pistons, Rockets, Thunder of the world might think they can fix/better utilize him as we've recently seen with flawed youngsters like Christian Wood, Chris Bouchard, & Kevin Porter Jr. Doubt the Kings even accept a protected 1st for MB3, they'll want to gamble on him.

BTW we can cite protected/late 1sts and 2nd rounders that turned out glorious all day long or immediately flamed out. That doesn't mean a thing here.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Fultz is a top pick that fell flat on his face the first few seasons, he was way worse than Bagley. That's it, nothing too exact here. No comp will be perfect. It's why I think it's fruitless to provide them, they can be nitpicked away. Heck, I think Orlando re-signing MF to $50MM was a mistake. But some people loved that deal and maybe it made sense for a team like Orlando (but certainly not for the Celtics). Anthony Bennett avg 4ppg/12mpg, started 4 NBA games, spent time in the G-League/Dunkin Donuts, and was out of the NBA after his rookie deal. I doubt that's MB3s outcome. Maybe Micheal Beasley is his future, IDK?

I really have zero idea how a 22yr old Marvin Bagley will turn out. Maybe he has not been properly used, not in the right situation, poorly coached or he's just a lazy POS with no talent. For the 3rd time, I agree his adv metrics have been atrocious during his 19-21yr old seasons. For a team like the Celtics, no thanks. BUT a late/protected 1st, when a team like OKC owns a dozen of them, has a different value proposition. Plus they have cap space galore. It all depends on the team/situation. The Magic, Pistons, Rockets, Thunder of the world might think they can fix/better utilize him as we've recently seen with flawed youngsters like Christian Wood, Chris Bouchard, & Kevin Porter Jr. Doubt the Kings even accept a protected 1st for MB3, they'll want to gamble on him.

BTW we can cite protected/late 1sts and 2nd rounders that turned out glorious all day long, but that doesn't mean a thing here.
They are both pretty flawed. If Fultz could add a reliable 3 point shot, he'd be a decent NBA player and worth his contract as a combo guard. He has good length but hasn't been much of a defender to date. He's also really only played 1 season and was injured early last year. It's hard to know if there was any year to year growth or not, as he didn't play. If you squint, maybe he turns into Dejounte Murray. Orlando also wasn't going anywhere so taking a gamble on Fultz is fine. They gave up a 1st and 2nd round pick (21st and 33rd picks, ended up being Tyrese Maxey and Carsen Edwards).

Bagley has athleticism but his measurements aren't that great for his height (7'1 wingspan, 8'9 standing reach). His wingspan is an inch more than Romeo and Jaylen. His standing reach is 1.5 inches less than Tatum's. He's shown some ability to shoot the 3, but it's clearly a work in progress. He's also a mediocre at best FT shooter and regressed in his 2nd full season (.691 to .575, the .806 was on 31 FTA, doesn't count). Bagley's work ethic has also been questioned. If I were OKC I'd probably move one of the 1st rounders (lottery protected and the worst of the picks). He has offensive upside and has decent size at the 4. Giving his standing reach though, he's never going to be that shot blocking presence.

Fultz has more value/upside based on position alone though. Bagley does have the benefit of being 10 months younger. Ironically, he's played 122 more minutes than Fultz. That's kind of crazy considering he missed a full year to injury and came out a year later. Just shows you how much time Fultz has missed in his first 4 years. Fultz has played in 113 out of 308 games. Bagley 118/226.

All things equal, I'd take Fultz over Bagley 10 times out of 10, especially on the C's. Fultz might actually have a role here. Bagley would be a worse Horford. Fultz is signed for 2 more years though, so all things aren't equal.

20 years ago, Bagley would have been a lesser Derrick Coleman. He'd get his, but his team would be bad in the process. He'd never show much improvement because he didn't have to. Nowadays, without a 3 point shot, the ability to switch, and/or rim protect, he's pretty much obsolete. And even with a 3 point shot, unless he's Brook Lopez or Channing Frye, he's still obsolete. I'd bet on the athleticism but I'm not sure he offers any more value than Juan Hernangomez. The latter has a better wingspan. I couldn't find his standing reach. Again, Bagley's measurements aren't bad, they are just bad for someone 6'11 or someone who is supposed to be a rim protector. As a wing, they are fine.

Honestly, I'd almost be tempted to take Mo Bamba over Bagley, The former is probably readily available and at a cheaper price with Jon Isaac returning. You can't teach a 7'10 wing span and 9'5 standing reach. He's also been better from 3 (96/295, .325 vs 71/226, .314), though barely, They are also similar FT shooters (.646 to .663, but Mo is trending up, Bagley down). Bamba's rates across the board are all higher actually (reb, assist, steals blocks). That could be team related/playing time related though, as it's easier to put up better rate stats in 15 minutes than 25 minutes. Bamba is 10 months older than Bagley though, and a few days older than Fultz.

Anyway, I spent more time than I wanted to discussing Marvin Bagley.
 

JM3

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Fultz is a top pick that fell flat on his face the first few seasons, he was way worse than Bagley. That's it, nothing too exact here. No comp will be perfect. It's why I think it's fruitless to provide them, they can be nitpicked away. Heck, I think Orlando re-signing MF to $50MM was a mistake. But some people loved that deal and maybe it made sense for a team like Orlando (but certainly not for the Celtics). Anthony Bennett avg 4ppg/12mpg, started 4 NBA games, spent time in the G-League/Dunkin Donuts, and was out of the NBA after his rookie deal. I doubt that's MB3s outcome. Maybe Micheal Beasley is his future, IDK?

I really have zero idea how a 22yr old Marvin Bagley will turn out. Maybe he has not been properly used, not in the right situation, poorly coached or he's just a lazy POS with no talent? For the 3rd time, I agree his adv metrics have been atrocious during his 19-21yr old seasons. For a team like the Celtics, no thanks. BUT a late/protected 1st, when a team like OKC owns a dozen of them, has a different value proposition. Plus they have cap space galore. It all depends on the team/situation. The Magic, Pistons, Rockets, Thunder of the world might think they can fix/better utilize him as we've recently seen with flawed youngsters like Christian Wood, Chris Bouchard, & Kevin Porter Jr. Doubt the Kings even accept a protected 1st for MB3, they'll want to gamble on him.

BTW we can cite protected/late 1sts and 2nd rounders that turned out glorious all day long or immediately flamed out. That doesn't mean a thing here.
I'm not looking for a perfect comp... I'm looking for:

1) What Bagley's realistic path to being a useful player on a good team is; OR

2) A player who plays a similar game to Bagley in today's NBA who is or could be a positive player on a good team.

Re: Crespo - Poor man's Coleman & homeless man's Amare were the 2 best case comps I could think of.

The Thunder are accumulating picks to try to hit the lottery or have the ammo to buy the lotto. Until then, the best use of their cap is RECEIVING picks to take on bad contracts, not giving them up to take on bad contracts.

Bagley is a useless archetype. Jarrett Culver is a better YOLO option than Bagley because if he hits his best case he's a very useful playoff contributor. He almost certainly won't, & probably 90% of the time Bagley will have a better career than Culver, but that's because Bagley will be a somewhat detrimental player for 20-25 mpg & Culver will be out of the league.
 

JM3

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Also, I had no clue the Raptors got Norm/OG from the GV trade, but once I went down that rabbit hole I had to post it lol.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Bulls got a nice little player for free when the Nets ran out of roster spots and had to waive rebounding machine Alize Johnson. I remember 5-6 years ago I was intrigued when Ainge worked him out after he put his name in the draft after being one of the countries leading rebounders but he later pulled out. Watch out for him to be one of those late bloomers who maybe figure things out as he gets into his late 20’s.
 

JM3

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I don't have any data to back this up, but I feel like people named after alcohol are empirically more likely to be late bloomers.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don't have any data to back this up, but I feel like people named after alcohol are empirically more likely to be late bloomers.
Nice.

I was just reading how he was 5’9 in HS before a growth spurt and he credited his former size to him developing strong work habits back when he was a small guard fighting for everything he could.
 

benhogan

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Bulls got a nice little player for free when the Nets ran out of roster spots and had to waive rebounding machine Alize Johnson. I remember 5-6 years ago I was intrigued when Ainge worked him out after he put his name in the draft after being one of the countries leading rebounders but he later pulled out. Watch out for him to be one of those late bloomers who maybe figure things out as he gets into his late 20’s.
Yea, good pickup for the Bulls.

That's the type of player that would have been nice as the 15th man here. Good backstory. Kind of guy that hits the floor with the intent of doing all the little things to winning. Instead a guy, like Jabari Parker, whose only value is scoring (which is really hard to do with the inconsistent play of the 15th man). Points from the bench are impt, but when you are so far down the rotation 14/15, JP will never get enough reps to prove he can score efficiently (while giving it up on the other end)

BUT its really hard to criticize Brad since he's done all these under-radar clever moves this offseason
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yea, good pickup for the Bulls.

That's the type of player that would have been nice as the 15th man here. Good backstory. Kind of guy that hits the floor with the intent of doing all the little things to winning. Instead a guy, like Jabari Parker, whose only value is scoring (which is really hard to do with the inconsistent play of the 15th man). Points from the bench are impt, but when you are so far down the rotation 14/15, JP will never get enough reps to prove he can score efficiently (while giving it up on the other end)

BUT its really hard to criticize Brad since he's done all these under-radar clever moves this offseason
If I were running Team Alize I’d never consider Boston after sitting for the Nets last year. This kid needs an opportunity for minutes and numbers to get paid in two years. I don’t see any reason why he can’t be a $6-10m/yr guy after some exposure with the Bulls.
 

benhogan

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If I were running Team Alize I’d never consider Boston after sitting for the Nets last year. This kid needs an opportunity for minutes and numbers to get paid in two years. I don’t see any reason why he can’t be a $6-10m/yr guy after some exposure with the Bulls.
Team Alize got him a gtd 2yr deal (min.) which is decent work by them after 49 career NBA games. He'll still be behind several players (like DJ Jr) but he'll get more NBA minutes to shine (and get those NBA riches)
 

Sam Ray Not

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Perusing the 2011-2012 NBA All-Stars on their 10th anniversary…

• 9 currently play for the Lakers or Nets
• 4 play for the other 28 teams combined
• 11 are retired or dead
 

JM3

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Name the rogue 4 would be an interesting game if I hadn't already looked up the answer.
 

Kliq

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Randomly guessing: CP3, Rose, Love and...Iguodala?

I got it! Although, now I think people will assume I looked it up earlier.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Couldn't get Iguodala, that's a good pull. 17 years in the NBA, he's only made 1 all-star team.
Wow, Iggy didn't even have great counting stats but a product of the wacky '11-'12 lockout-shortened season I suppose. Interesting team when you look at the veterans and young guys though. Tony Battie and Elton Brand at 12-13th years in the league, then Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner and Nikola Vucevic all in their first few seasons. Lou Williams appears to be their median experience player at 6th year in the league. Iguodala was the only All-Star but they definitely had an All Future Supporting Cast team.
 

Smokey Joe

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Took the time to view the post this was in regards to and am mildly disappointed this wasn’t a reference to robbing a blind man. Does this make me a bad person?
Not you, just Carlos Boozers agent. Who surprisingly, still has an (appropriate) job in the NBA.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Not really sure where to put this, but I thought this little addendum to the Last Dance about Luc Longley was pretty interesting if you have an hour to kill.

 

HomeRunBaker

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Not you, just Carlos Boozers agent. Who surprisingly, still has an (appropriate) job in the NBA.
Who was his agent? In Gordon Gund’s statement in the days following he was very clear that Carlos, and to the lesser degree his wife, were the ones responding to him repeatedly in the meeting that they understood the arrangement.
 

Smokey Joe

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Who was his agent? In Gordon Gund’s statement in the days following he was very clear that Carlos, and to the lesser degree his wife, were the ones responding to him repeatedly in the meeting that they understood the arrangement.
Rob Pelinka
 

JM3

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Perusing the 2011-2012 NBA All-Stars on their 10th anniversary…

• 9 currently play for the Lakers or Nets
• 4 play for the other 28 teams combined
• 11 are retired or dead
This picture isn't completely accurate, but less morbid this way...

FB_IMG_1631191050453.jpg
 
Not really sure where to put this, but I thought this little addendum to the Last Dance about Luc Longley was pretty interesting if you have an hour to kill.

FWIW, I watched this the other night when I couldn't get to sleep, and I thought it was delightful. Not an addendum to The Last Dance as such - it's an Australian-made documentary - but it does fill in a notable gap in TLD (a gap addressed in this documentary), and with a level of detail that wouldn't have been possible in TLD itself. There's a surprising amount of MJ in this, along with contributions from Pippen and Kerr and Sam Smith, among others. Highly recommended.
 

Tony C

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i have to say, I don't go to RotoWorld for basketball analysis, but their comment on Deandre Jordan's Laker signing sort of sums it up:
DeAndre Jordan has officially signed with the Lakers.
The Lakers were forced to go out and spend roughly $5.2 million on two, mostly washed-up centers this summer because despite having nine years of NBA experience, Anthony Davis still doesn't understand what position he's supposed to play. For now, Marc Gasol remains with the team for another $2.7 million, but he's reportedly not a lock to make the regular-season roster. After all, DeMarcus Cousins is still available.
Kind of hard to argue with that. And, while Gasol has declined, he's not nearly as washed as Jordan. Weird focus.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Does LA win more than 45 games? I doubt it. Is that the most hilariously constructed roster of washed up superstars ever? I mean Jesus Christ they might win 75 games if it was 2009.
 

Euclis20

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Does LA win more than 45 games? I doubt it. Is that the most hilariously constructed roster of washed up superstars ever? I mean Jesus Christ they might win 75 games if it was 2009.
Yeah the Lakers over/under per the oddsmakers is 52.5. I think this team will be dominant during the regular season - adding westbrook allows lebron and davis to take plenty of rest days, and teams won't bother game-planning for their lack of range in the regular season. Like all Westbrook teams, their problem will emerge in the playoffs.
 

Jimbodandy

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Yeah the Lakers over/under per the oddsmakers is 52.5. I think this team will be dominant during the regular season - adding westbrook allows lebron and davis to take plenty of rest days, and teams won't bother game-planning for their lack of range in the regular season. Like all Westbrook teams, their problem will emerge in the playoffs.
This.

Westbrook adds regular season wins because he's an all time try hard (I mean that lovingly). And he keeps tread on Lebron's tires, which helps them in the playoffs.

I hate the fucking Lakers, but Russ makes sense in a lot of ways...basically until they meet Brooklyn in the finals.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Yeah the Lakers over/under per the oddsmakers is 52.5. I think this team will be dominant during the regular season - adding westbrook allows lebron and davis to take plenty of rest days, and teams won't bother game-planning for their lack of range in the regular season. Like all Westbrook teams, their problem will emerge in the playoffs.
I have a very hard time believing that team stays healthy throughout the regular season, even with all the load management.
 

Fishy1

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I have a very hard time believing that team stays healthy throughout the regular season, even with all the load management.
I mean, the Nash-Bryant-Howard Lakers were way younger than this team is. Nash was the elder statesman there at 38, Howard was only 27, and Bryant was 34. All those guys are also just way worse players than Lebron, but nonetheless, all the concerns about health go the same for age-related declines in quality of play. There's blow-out potential up and down the roster.

There's five guys on that roster on the wrong side of 35, one who's about to turn 35 in Rondo, and Westbrook, who's always both been durable and looked like a human knee-injury-waiting-to-happen. He's about to turn 33, which by itself isn't the end of the world, but for a guy with that many miles on his tires, and with the effort he puts in -- there's definitely some cause for concern. And Jordan, who's turning 33, but has looked like he turned 40 for a couple years now.

If Westbrook, Lebron, and Davis can all stay on the floor, I think they'll be great, and I think there's a good likelihood of that. And the rest could all hold off Father Time for one more year. Lebron has always seemed invincible until the last couple years, and he may have a few more great years in him. But Gasol, Ariza, Rondo, Carmelo, Jordan... I wouldn't have much faith in those guys being productive for much longer.