2021-22 NBA Off-season Thread

benhogan

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They don’t want to lock in big contracts to veterans in their 30’s so $80-100m for Fournier is never happening when you have to prepare for the Morant and JJJ extensions.....and I sure hope it doesn’t happen in Boston (nor do I expect it to). That’s why they moved Valenciunas, who I like also, but they were losing him next summer anyway so now they extend his position for an extra year in Adam’s without a long term deal.

Bouknight leaped in the draft based on his lights out shooting at the workouts which makes sense as he has fine mechanics. I attribute his low 3-pt pct last year to his role as the do-it-all guy for UConn who faces constant double teams while having no clear catch and shoot opportunities.......very similar to Jaylen as a senior at Cal.
If getting Steven Adams for an extra year at $18M is a good thing then I give up
 

Cesar Crespo

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Well after a long day, it's nice having a big smile on my face knowing that the thought of Turner coming here is going to bother people.

If PBS is a mad trader over the next few weeks, it really would be a pleasant surprise.
Trader Brad.
 

cheech13

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If Tatum prioritizes playing with his buddy over a better chance to win for years then he's the one who needs to go.
Beal is a better player than Brown. There are certainly many reasons why Boston wouldn’t and probably shouldn’t make that deal, from age to contract to basketball fit, but Bradley Beal isn’t just Tatum’s “buddy.”
 

HomeRunBaker

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If getting Steven Adams for an extra year at $18M is a good thing then I give up
It’s much preferable to losing Jonas for zero a year prior to the two big extensions, to where that $18m woudlnt affect them at all, or sign him for $100m which of course they would never do with the two extensions coming up.
 

DJnVa

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I wonder if the braintrust has had enough of Time Lord's inability to stay on the court, however wondrously talented he might be.
Or it could be TT on the way out.

I'm not even sure how much filler has to be added to it--ESPN says $5M, another site says nothing.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Or it could be TT on the way out.

I'm not even sure how much filler has to be added to it--ESPN says $5M, another site says nothing.
TL would probably have more value... but maybe not. Other teams know what the C's do and other teams have their own TL (minus the passing).

I doubt either one have that much trade value. I'd guess Myles Turner has very little as well. I also thought Brown, Tatum and Smart weren't fans of Myles Turner and they were the ones who rejected the deal?
 

the moops

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Brogdon and Turner for Horford and Smart.

Turner doesn't make sense at all unless a big is leaving.
Brogdon is on a 2/43.5 deal and Turner is on 2/35 deal.

Smart is on 1/14 and Horford is on a 2/53.

Both Brogdon and Turner are way more valuable assets that Smart and/or Horford on their contracts. BOS would need to include picks and young player(s) to even this out.
 

128

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I'm curious to see if the NOLA-Memphis deal was the opening salvo in a barrage of draft-week trades. At the very least, I expect we'll see a few more Woj/Shams bombs before the picks start Thursday nite.
 

lexrageorge

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I'm curious to see if the NOLA-Memphis deal was the opening salvo in a barrage of draft-week trades. At the very least, I expect we'll see a few more Woj/Shams bombs before the picks start Thursday nite.
They will certainly predict 500 of the next 20 trades by draft day.
 

bigq

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Still can't figure out which was worse
1. Watching TT/Theis cover wings for numerous possessions or
2. Theis being a spot-up 3pt shooter with Tristen clogging the lane

The saddest bit is the first 10 games were the best part of the season.

COVID season came as advertised. It's the only thing that delivered on its promise.
Sure those two didn’t work well together but the upcoming Horford Baynes reunion is going to be glorious.
 

benhogan

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Sure those two didn’t work well together but the upcoming Horford Baynes reunion is going to be glorious.
Ol' Aron was running on fumes last season. A deep run this Summer with Oz is going to empty the tank. Fungible, 35yr old Centers need to be taken out behind the barn.

The good thing is PBS already added a young, new prophet to our Center stockpile
 

Cellar-Door

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Brogdon is on a 2/43.5 deal and Turner is on 2/35 deal.

Smart is on 1/14 and Horford is on a 2/53.

Both Brogdon and Turner are way more valuable assets that Smart and/or Horford on their contracts. BOS would need to include picks and young player(s) to even this out.
I don't think Brogdon on that deal is more valuable than Smart, Brogdon is either significantly overpaid or Smart is significantly under-paid as Smart is the better player.
 

benhogan

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It’s much preferable to losing Jonas for zero a year prior to the two big extensions, to where that $18m woudlnt affect them at all, or sign him for $100m which of course they would never do with the two extensions coming up.
just so I have my accounting correct, you have:

1. a 30yr old Jonas Valanciunas looking to get a $100MM deal next summer

2. Fournier getting $80-100MM this summer

3. Marcus Smart getting $100MM over 4 yrs next summer (or was that Happy's ask for an extension?)


What on earth has Jay Powell wrought? :eek:
 

lexrageorge

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I don't think Brogdon on that deal is more valuable than Smart, Brogdon is either significantly overpaid or Smart is significantly under-paid as Smart is the better player.
Different GMs will probably view Smart's relatively value differently.

Some teams would love to acquire Smart's current contract and his Bird rights, whereas others would view the contract as a risk of ending up with nothing if they don't overpay for Smart next season.
 

Cellar-Door

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Different GMs will probably view Smart's relatively value differently.

Some teams would love to acquire Smart's current contract and his Bird rights, whereas others would view the contract as a risk of ending up with nothing if they don't overpay for Smart next season.
I guess, but you sign him with the intent of re-signing him (likely just by immediately extending), but the gap in contracts is big and I think Smart is clearly the better player. You have Brogdon with 1 more year, but almost $30M more, when Smart has been the better player the last 2 years and is 2 years younger. I honestly don't see how high a contract Smart could ask for that you'd see more value in Brogdon on his current deal. Even is Smart wanted 4/100 and you gave it to him... I'd rather have the better player at 5/114 for his age 27-31 seasons than 2/44 (plus either an extension or nothing) on the worse player's age 29-30 seasons.
 

Kliq

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I don't think Brogdon on that deal is more valuable than Smart, Brogdon is either significantly overpaid or Smart is significantly under-paid as Smart is the better player.
I disagree, Brogdon is a much better offensive player than Smart; better passer, better shooter, just a more comfortable offensive player in almost every way. Smart may be a better defender but the gap isn't that large.
 

Cellar-Door

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I disagree, Brogdon is a much better offensive player than Smart; better passer, better shooter, just a more comfortable offensive player in almost every way. Smart may be a better defender but the gap isn't that large.
Even if you think the player gap is small, the salary gap is 50% (22 vs 14), that's a lot. And Smart "may" be the better defender in the way Death Valley "may" be hot. Smart is one of the better defenders in the league and Brogdon is a bad defender.
 

Fishy1

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I disagree, Brogdon is a much better offensive player than Smart; better passer, better shooter, just a more comfortable offensive player in almost every way. Smart may be a better defender but the gap isn't that large.
Sure it is. That Indiana team was absolutely horrific defensively and a lot of their problems were at the point of attack. Brogdon has regressed defensively and hasn't managed to grab a steal per game since his rookie year. No thanks.
 

benhogan

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Jay King playing GM for the Celtics this Summer.

the athletic is a very worthy sub, here are the highlights

https://theathletic.com/2732467/2021/07/27/trading-tristan-thompton-re-signing-marcus-smart-and-more-celtics-gm-king-for-a-day/?source=dailyemail

1. Draft RaiQuan Gray
2. Sign Evan Fournier to a three-year, $51-million contract
3. Sign Otto Porter to a two-year, $12.1 million contract
4. Sign Ish Smith to a one-year minimum contract

5. Offer Marcus Smart a three-year contract extension $56MM
6. Offer Robert Williams a four-year, $44-million extension
7. Trade Tristan Thompson, Romeo Langford and 2022 second-round pick for Kyle Anderson
8. Trade Grant Williams for Danuel House

The results

Point guards: Marcus Smart, Payton Pritchard, Ish Smith
Wings: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Evan Fournier, Aaron Nesmith, Danuel House, Carsen Edwards
Swings: Kyle Anderson, Otto Porter Jr., RaiQuan Gray
Centers: Robert Williams, Al Horford, Moses Brown

With this roster, the Celtics would be bigger, deeper and more versatile than they were last season. They would still have some young prospects to develop as rotation pieces and/or trade chips, but would have plenty of veteran options around them. Stevens could also try to trade cash considerations to dump the final year of Carsen Edwards’s contract and open another roster spot, maybe for an accomplished third-string center (Aron Baynes?). In this scenario, I had the Celtics hold onto Edwards and give Moses Brown a chance to back up Williams and Horford. Importantly, I kept all of Boston’s future first-round picks, which could be used one day to chase a big-time talent.

The Celtics would need to pay about $26 million in luxury tax next season. Just guessing, but that’s probably on the high end of what the ownership group would be willing to pay for a team that wouldn’t be considered a title favorite. It may even be beyond Stevens’ budget, but for the sake of this exercise, I gave myself some leeway to build a more experienced supporting cast. Stevens would have financial decisions to make in the future. But with better talent around Tatum and Brown next season, especially defensively, the Celtics would have a chance to stage a turnaround from a disappointing .500 season.
 

the moops

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I don't think Brogdon on that deal is more valuable than Smart, Brogdon is either significantly overpaid or Smart is significantly under-paid as Smart is the better player.
I think Smart is a bit underpaid and Brogdon a bit overpaid. I would be curious if they both were free agents, what their value would be around the league.
 

the moops

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Sure it is. That Indiana team was absolutely horrific defensively and a lot of their problems were at the point of attack. Brogdon has regressed defensively and hasn't managed to grab a steal per game since his rookie year. No thanks.
IND was middle of the pack defensively (similar rating numbers to BOS actually), certainly not horrific.
 

Devizier

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I think Smart is a bit underpaid and Brogdon a bit overpaid. I would be curious if they both were free agents, what their value would be around the league.
I think the problem with Smart is that he's only got a year left on his deal. That means his value is highest with contenders, which Indiana really isn't. Of course the Celtics could flip Smart to a contender for a picks package and hope to use those to supplement a deal for Bradley Beal.
 

TripleOT

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Brogdon and Turner for Horford and Smart.

Turner doesn't make sense at all unless a big is leaving.
One of the reasons for not acquiring Turner in a Hayward S+T was his salary could block a Smart extension.

If Indy is willing to trade Brogdon and ET for Smart and Horford, Brad has to jump at that deal. If Turner is still considered a negative asset, this deal makes sense for Indy, but if not, they would want more.
 

Kliq

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Sure it is. That Indiana team was absolutely horrific defensively and a lot of their problems were at the point of attack. Brogdon has regressed defensively and hasn't managed to grab a steal per game since his rookie year. No thanks.
Haha, steals per game is not a relevant stat when comparing defenders. I agree that Smart is a better defender (although Smart has also regressed and might be slipping a bit athletically as he enters his late 20s) but I'd still rate Brogdon as a significantly better player. I like Marcus, but on offense he is a shameless chucker that has shot 37% and 39% from the field over the last two seasons, and offers little scoring unless he is chucking threes. Brogdon is both a more efficient and more selfless offensive player, that I think has the ability to be a good defender on the Celtics team thanks to his size, length and high basketball IQ. I'd much rather have him than Smart; not factoring in the contracts.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think the problem with Smart is that he's only got a year left on his deal. That means his value is highest with contenders, which Indiana really isn't. Of course the Celtics could flip Smart to a contender for a picks package and hope to use those to supplement a deal for Bradley Beal.
Teams aren't going to offer a pick package for Smart. They'll offer a 1st rounder and that pick won't have enough value for Smart.

If Smart is traded, it's probably going to be for other players.
 

Fishy1

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I think the problem with Smart is that he's only got a year left on his deal. That means his value is highest with contenders, which Indiana really isn't. Of course the Celtics could flip Smart to a contender for a picks package and hope to use those to supplement a deal for Bradley Beal.
I know DRTG liked them - I don't know why, because they allowed more points in the paint than anybody in the league and were 25th by total points allowed.
 

benhogan

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One of the reasons for not acquiring Turner in a Hayward S+T was his salary could block a Smart extension.

If Indy is willing to trade Brogdon and ET for Smart and Horford, Brad has to jump at that deal. If Turner is still considered a negative asset, this deal makes sense for Indy, but if not, they would want more.
but Brad benched ET all last season ;) I know you meant Myles. Agreed Brad should jump if offered. If nothing else it would make @Jimbodandy's day

I like Smart but Brogdon is the better player and would compliment the Jays better, which should factor in any Celtic trade discussion.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Why in the hell would IND do this trade? Makes no sense from their side unless BOS is throwing in a pick or two
They wouldn't. I just threw the trade out there because the salaries worked and because literally no Myles Turner trade makes sense.

I'd guess maybe they make the trade if Myles Turner really does have negative value... but Horford.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I like thinking about all-in metrics (RPM is easily accessible) when comparing guys with very different profiles like Brogdon and Smart. And that shows that last year Brogdon was better----many of us feel Smart was off, the prior year Smart was, and three years ago they were nearly tied with Smart a bit ahead.

That's all to say this is a close-ish call and so a) Cellar Door's point about cost is pretty compelling and 2) individual team construction is going to drive preference
 

Fishy1

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Haha, steals per game is not a relevant stat when comparing defenders. I agree that Smart is a better defender (although Smart has also regressed and might be slipping a bit athletically as he enters his late 20s) but I'd still rate Brogdon as a significantly better player. I like Marcus, but on offense he is a shameless chucker that has shot 37% and 39% from the field over the last two seasons, and offers little scoring unless he is chucking threes. Brogdon is both a more efficient and more selfless offensive player, that I think has the ability to be a good defender on the Celtics team thanks to his size, length and high basketball IQ. I'd much rather have him than Smart; not factoring in the contracts.
Of course counting stats are not the only measure of a players defensive ability. But to dismiss them outright is just as silly as relying on them alone - they're an indirect measurement of how many deflections a player gets, which in turn is a nice way of measuring how much ball pressure a player applies and how good their hands are. I mean, there's a reason why the steal leaders are usually a who's who of defensive players. To ignore that is just to admit you're trying to reify your own faulty assumptions.

Brogdon is slow on his feet, a poor on-ball defender, and a useless help defender. You can talk about length all you want, but he doesn't use it and he never has.

Look, I don't hate Brogdon, and obviously he's the better offensive player, but it's another move that barely moves the needle. I see no reason to give up Smart plus picks when we could just sign or S&T Fournier.
 

TripleOT

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Smart is a better defender, but Brogdon is a better player, and a better fit with the Jays. He can stretch the floor as a 38% shooter from three, and is way better inside the arc than Smart. He is a marginally better passer, and a better rebounder. He’s friendly with Jaylen Brown, who has clashed with Smart in the past.

I’m not a Turner fan, but he does stretch the floor, which is Jays friendly, and blocks shot. If TL signs for something like 4/$44m, having $29 million in two young rim protecting centers isn’t too bad. I’d miss Smart for sure, but having a tall PG who can efficiently put up 20 ppg, make threes, and play switchable defense would be tough to pass up.
 

Kliq

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Of course counting stats are not the only measure of a players defensive ability. But to dismiss them outright is just as silly as relying on them alone - they're an indirect measurement of how many deflections a player gets, which in turn is a nice way of measuring how much ball pressure a player applies and how good their hands are. I mean, there's a reason why the steal leaders are usually a who's who of defensive players. To ignore that is just to admit you're trying to reify your own faulty assumptions.

Brogdon is slow on his feet, a poor on-ball defender, and a useless help defender. You can talk about length all you want, but he doesn't use it and he never has.

Look, I don't hate Brogdon, and obviously he's the better offensive player, but it's another move that barely moves the needle. I see no reason to give up Smart plus picks when we could just sign or S&T Fournier.
We can disagree on Brogdon's value, I'm fine with that.

Regarding the bolded, that isn't very accurate at all. The steals stat will feature Ben Simmons, or Kawhi Leonard, but it also often features bad defenders or play "free safety" and often guard the weakest opposing player so they don't have to work as hard and can just kind of stand in passing lanes.

The other issue is that much like blocks per game, they tell us very little about real defensive value. Smart averaging 1.5 spg over Brogdon averaging 0.9 spg just means that once very two games, Smart gets a steal that Brogdon doesn't get, which really isn't that telling at all about their individual defensive ability.
 

Cellar-Door

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Culver wasn't good as a rookie, but just normal rookie bad. His 2nd year he graded out as actually kinda good on defense, but his offense went from bad to terrible, as he battled injuries and played weird positions (PF? Why? he's a guard).
I'd trade 45 for him in a heartbeat
 

cheech13

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There were multiple reports floating around Twitter last night that OKC offered SGA and #6 to Detroit for #1 and were quickly rebuffed.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Culver wasn't good as a rookie, but just normal rookie bad. His 2nd year he graded out as actually kinda good on defense, but his offense went from bad to terrible, as he battled injuries and played weird positions (PF? Why? he's a guard).
I'd trade 45 for him in a heartbeat
It looks like most of his offensive awfulness came after missing a chunk of time with an injury. He returned mid-season, got sporadic 2Q and garbage time minutes. I’ve always been a proponent of buying low on a player who underachieves when he returns to action in mid-season, without time to ramp it up in preseason/camp, while competing against proven players in mid season game shape. Was never really a fan of his game but he fits my buy-low parameters......having said that, I’m sure the Wolves are thinking in the low to mid-30’s and not 45.
 

nighthob

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Jay King playing GM for the Celtics this Summer.

1. Draft RaiQuan Gray
Weirdly enough I was watching Gray game tape last night. Hopefully Boston avoids him like the plague. If you guys hate Grant Williams’s conditioning Gray’s going to make you livid. He looks like he’s around 6’7”/6’8”, but he has to weigh 275-285. His length’s OK, but not elite. He might have a wingspan that touches 7’, but it’s mostly due to being as wide as an OT, not due to arm length. So I’d be skeptical that he could be much of a small ball 5. To be brutally frank the guy he reminds me of is Jared Sullinger. He gets a No rating from me.
 

Cellar-Door

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It looks like most of his offensive awfulness came after missing a chunk of time with an injury. He returned mid-season, got sporadic 2Q and garbage time minutes. I’ve always been a proponent of buying low on a player who underachieves when he returns to action in mid-season, without time to ramp it up in preseason/camp, while competing against proven players in mid season game shape. Was never really a fan of his game but he fits my buy-low parameters......having said that, I’m sure the Wolves are thinking in the low to mid-30’s and not 45.
Probably, rumor is that mostly what they really want is to dodge the tax, so 45 and maybe that super complicated 2023 2nd we're owed would work.

Wow. SGA is pretty damn awesome. I think I would at keast try and expand that deal
I think DET is looking at the same thing as OKC... is SGA a guy you want to be the sole max guy you start to build around, because you need to decide quick on that. SGA strikes me as a guy you have to max if you have him, but he immediately becomes one of those "yeah he's a max guy, but he's not a MAX guy" and now you're locked into him with not much else on the roster, and SGA doesn't strike me as the #1 on a top team.
 

nighthob

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Wow. SGA is pretty damn awesome. I think I would at keast try and expand that deal
The NBA is a star driven league, so all that matters is your evaluation of SGA vs. whichever of Cunningham or Green you have at #1. If OKC had landed the 4th pick there’d be more to think about. As is I’m on Detroit’s side here. I think SGA is a top 50 guy that can end up being a top 20 one. Cunningham and Green have top 10 upside.
 

Cesar Crespo

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What could SGA even be really traded for? A package of draft picks? I don't know how that even starts to make sense for a team who owns pretty much every pick for the next 5 years.

The Detroit deal makes some sense but outside of that, I can't see one that does. They are a rebuilding team so they'd be looking for players going into their 2nd and 3rd NBA seasons I would guess?

If they are "shopping" him, it makes me wonder if they know something we don't.

Maybe for Anthony Edwards if they really like him? LaMelo isn't going anywhere.
 

pjheff

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Weirdly enough I was watching Gray game tape last night. Hopefully Boston avoids him like the plague. If you guys hate Grant Williams’s conditioning Gray’s going to make you livid. He looks like he’s around 6’7”/6’8”, but he has to weigh 275-285. His length’s OK, but not elite. He might have a wingspan that touches 7’, but it’s mostly due to being as wide as an OT, not due to arm length. So I’d be skeptical that he could be much of a small ball 5. To be brutally frank the guy he reminds me of is Jared Sullinger. He gets a No rating from me.
Gray strikes me as a real Ainge pick, as Danny saw fat as potential in disguise with not only Sullinger but Jefferson and Perk and had a real affinity for power threes / short fours in the second round.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The NBA is a star driven league, so all that matters is your evaluation of SGA vs. whichever of Cunningham or Green you have at #1. If OKC had landed the 4th pick there’d be more to think about. As is I’m on Detroit’s side here. I think SGA is a top 50 guy that can end up being a top 20 one. Cunningham and Green have top 10 upside.
Agreed. The only way Detroit does that deal for SGA is if OKC could somehow get the #2 pick for Green.
 

nighthob

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Gray strikes me as a real Ainge pick, as Danny saw fat as potential in disguise with not only Sullinger but Jefferson and Perk and had a real affinity for power threes / short fours in the second round.
Boston already has a better/fitter version of him in Grant Williams (and I think they’re roughly the same age to boot). And Williams struggles staying in front of guys on the perimeter. Which limits his game. Gray is a lot slower on his feet.