2021-22 NBA Off-season Thread

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
That's fine, but basically everything we have to measure players says Ayton is better, and we know enough about how NBA teams evaluate players to know that a good chunk of their internals are similar to the metrics that are public, so some, possibly all of them probably also think Ayton is the more valuable player. If we're looking at future contract estimation that plays a major role. Ayton is in a much better position to get a max deal than Collins was.

Not caring about metrics doesn't mean NBA teams don't care about metrics. We aren't discussing whether WE would give Ayton a max, we're looking at whether he is LIKELY to get the max. And based on performance and trajectory his agent should be much more comfortable in the assumption that he'll get the max or very close to it barring an injury than Collins' was this time last year.
I'd guess most NBA teams would prefer Collins. You are just speculating that Ayton is in a better position to get the max.

You are making lots of assumptions on what GMS think based off public metrics.

Based off of trends, I'd say Ayton is becoming less valuable by the day.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Then again, half this board thought Lonzo was going to get the Max so yeah. SoSH is really in tune with what NBA GMs are thinking.

Smart was gonna get 4/100. It's HRB half the time but still.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,380
Santa Monica
That's fine, but basically everything we have to measure players says Ayton is better, and we know enough about how NBA teams evaluate players to know that a good chunk of their internals are similar to the metrics that are public, so some, possibly all of them probably also think Ayton is the more valuable player. If we're looking at future contract estimation that plays a major role. Ayton is in a much better position to get a max deal than Collins was.

Not caring about metrics doesn't mean NBA teams don't care about metrics. We aren't discussing whether WE would give Ayton a max, we're looking at whether he is LIKELY to get the max. And based on performance and trajectory his agent should be much more comfortable in the assumption that he'll get the max or very close to it barring an injury than Collins' was this time last year.
It only takes 1 GM and Altman is still in business. BUT RFA is salary dampening. While Sarvar is a cheapskate, he and his team have probably looked at this very closely and figure he can match whatever Kobi comes up with next summer.

a better question is: Who will most likely have salary space next summer and want to build their team around MAXing a 5 like Ayton?

Plenty of metrics had JC as good or better: BPM, VORP, ORtg/DRtg, OWS, On-Off, eFG%, 3pt%, PPG, etc
Many stats (like ORtg/DRtg) should favor Centers, but the bigger point is Center compensation is trending in one direction vs Wings. Statistically, they are very similar.

We'll see, it worked out for ATL to wait. I was kind of swayed into believing that JC/Lonzo would get maxed, but RFA Max contract is a bigger hill to climb than many give it credit for.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,380
Santa Monica
As far as RAPTOR. Ayton finished 6th on his team last season and 5th in WAR. Collins last season was superior

Heck we could make an argument that Mikal Bridges (signed 4/$90MM) was more valuable to the Suns last season, has more room for growth, and will play a bigger role in the future. Thank god he didn't end up on the 76ers

*Just got around to reading @wade boggs chicken dinner attached piece above, which is vastly superior to any of the drivel that's been written by me. Short/concise perspective on maxing rookie contracts
 
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HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,362
I think Chris Paul’s window was 5-10 years ago.
In any case, committing to a max contract for a center who hasn’t shown he deserves it yet, to protect Chris Paul’s age 37-40 year old seasons, seems like GM malpractice to me.
How could Paul’s window have been 5-10 years ago when he was ridiculously close to winning 2 in the last 3 years?
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
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Smokey Joe

Member
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Apr 9, 2001
1,179
How could Paul’s window have been 5-10 years ago when he was ridiculously close to winning 2 in the last 3 years?
Because it ties in with the other sentence in the post. Especially that “years 37-40” part.

BTW, I wonder what John Collins numbers would look like if he had Chris Paul feeding him instead of the point guard that he has”issues” with.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,800
Suns GM James Jones discusses the Ayton talks.

https://theathletic.com/2899094/2021/10/19/suns-gm-james-jones-on-deandre-ayton-contract-extension-talks-we-didnt-have-real-negotiations/?source=user_shared_article

Tl;dr version — Ayton wouldn’t consider anything but a 5-year max, and the Suns were adamantly opposed to going 5 years, so there wasn’t much to talk about.
Interesting that Ayton's agents don't seem to agree with that, basically saying that the Suns told them they wouldn't go max of any type or length.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,840
Because it ties in with the other sentence in the post. Especially that “years 37-40” part.

BTW, I wonder what John Collins numbers would look like if he had Chris Paul feeding him instead of the point guard that he has”issues” with.
Collins should thank God every day for allowing him to play with Trae Young.