2021-22 NBA Off-season Thread

Jimbodandy

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around the way
There were some here that were down on Zion because he might be a guy who eats his way out of the league. That picture does nothing to undermine that position.
 

Kliq

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Not a good look but also, probably can't exercise the same way coming off major foot surgery.
 

JakeRae

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wasn't he the answer to all our wing issues last season?
No. He was an interesting option the offseason leading into last season. It turns out his offensive improvement 2 years ago, in his third season, looks like it wasn’t real as he was terrible last year.
 

128

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But he’s only 22 and he’s a good player when healthy. NBA teams basically have to sign these deals, especially franchises like Memphis. The alternatives are just much less enticing.
Absolutely. Just pointing out that there might be more risk with JJJ than with some other players. Time will tell, as always.
 

BigSoxFan

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Absolutely. Just pointing out that there might be more risk with JJJ than with some other players. Time will tell, as always.
Yup. View this as higher risk and higher reward. He has all-star potential, IMO, but he also has TL downside if the injuries persist.
 

Cesar Crespo

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OMG. Sarver is the absolute worst.
Is Ayton really a max player in this climate? Is he that much more valuable than JJJ?

If you are 100% convinced he adds a 3, you give him max. I mean, you probably have to give him max anyway given how the NBA works but I think he'd be one of the worst max deals around unless he adds the 3 or turns into Gobert.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Wasn't the belief that Sarver pushed McDonough to draft Ayton instead of Luka in the first place? Why make that decision for your bball ops if you're going to nickel and dime when it comes to extension time?
Being wrong once doesn't need you need to be committed to being wrong twice.

Losing Ayton for nothing would definitely be wrong, but signing him to max might be too.
 

BigSoxFan

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Is Ayton really a max player in this climate? Is he that much more valuable than JJJ?

If you are 100% convinced he adds a 3, you give him max. I mean, you probably have to give him max anyway given how the NBA works but I think he'd be one of the worst max deals around unless he adds the 3 or turns into Gobert.
What are the odds you’re getting a player as good as Ayton if you let him go or trade him for pupu platter deal? You have Paul in the twilight of his career. You now have Booker and Bridges signed long-term. The Suns finally have a direction and now they’ve pissed off a young building block over a few million / year. I think it’s a very poor business decision.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Being wrong once doesn't need you need to be committed to being wrong twice.

Losing Ayton for nothing would definitely be wrong, but signing him to max might be too.
Here's a deep dive into the Ayton contract situation, though it was printed earlier this month so it doesn't include Bridges' extension: https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/deandre-ayton-disappointed-suns-havent-extended-him-but-the-situation-is-complicated-and-messy/

I suppose Sarver is rolling the dice; hoping he can get production from Ayton and either (i) they win it all before Ayton has to be extended) or (ii) the market shakes out so that nobody will offer Ayton the Max in restricted FA, while at the same time maintaining a good enough relationship with Ayton that he just doesn't bolt out of spite. It's an interesting strategy but the Suns have a $120M committed to 9 players for the 2022-23 season even before Ayton gets his extension.

Of course if Ayton gets fed up and walks, the Suns aren't going to be able to replace him with anyone nearly as good.

That's life in the NBA.
 

Cesar Crespo

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What are the odds you’re getting a player as good as Ayton if you let him go or trade him for pupu platter deal? You have Paul in the twilight of his career. You now have Booker and Bridges signed long-term. The Suns finally have a direction and now they’ve pissed off a young building block over a few million / year. I think it’s a very poor business decision.
Ayton seems like the type of player you include in a trade for Beal or Dame, though. Maybe not those 2 because they're terrible fits.

Is he worth more than the 5/125 Collins got? As far as I can tell, max for Ayton is 5/172.5.
 

Kliq

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Wasn't the belief that Sarver pushed McDonough to draft Ayton instead of Luka in the first place? Why make that decision for your bball ops if you're going to nickel and dime when it comes to extension time?
IIRC the reason they took Ayton over Luka was because that the Suns coach at the time had some experience with Luka in Europe and was negative on him, and that the Suns felt like since they already had Booker, they didn't need a player like Luka and a big would be more beneficial to their long-term core.

Obviously that ended up being incorrect, but I don't think Sarver was the key driver in making that decision.
 

ManicCompression

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IIRC the reason they took Ayton over Luka was because that the Suns coach at the time had some experience with Luka in Europe and was negative on him, and that the Suns felt like since they already had Booker, they didn't need a player like Luka and a big would be more beneficial to their long-term core.

Obviously that ended up being incorrect, but I don't think Sarver was the key driver in making that decision.
Ah, I thought that Sarver forced that through because he was a U of A guy and liked the appeal of keeping Ayton local.

The cost of not coming to an agreement, AFAIK, is that Ayton will go to RFA, and then Suns will match whatever offer the league puts out there. That's probably not too bad for the Suns if another team signs him to a max, but it could get messy if he signs a short offer sheet.
 

Kliq

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At least they didn't take Bagley.
Yeah, like Luka is the best player from the draft but I don't think it looks like a crazy bad decision. Ayton was the darling of the NBA Playoffs last year until he failed to stop Giannis, which is a job nobody in the NBA could do. It's good for Phoenix and Atlanta that the players they got instead of Luka at least appear to be really good, unlike the Kings with Bagley. Nobody makes fun of the Rockets for taking Hakeem over MJ.
 

GreyisGone

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Suns are spending money just not maxing Ayton. Might not end up being the right decision but certainly doesn’t seem like a crazy philosophy.
 

Cellar-Door

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Suns are spending money just not maxing Ayton. Might not end up being the right decision but certainly doesn’t seem like a crazy philosophy.
I think it's okay because they are betting that they can match his sheet and eventually he'll get over any upset over being nickled and dimed. On the other hand, telling a guy who is one of your best young stars that you won't give him a deal, then spending $11M a year for 4 years on a guy who won't start for you....
 

benhogan

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I think it's okay because they are betting that they can match his sheet and eventually he'll get over any upset over being nickled and dimed. On the other hand, telling a guy who is one of your best young stars that you won't give him a deal, then spending $11M a year for 4 years on a guy who won't start for you....
Just need to look at how it went down with John Collins/ATL. Many were 100% convinced he'd get maxed. ATL saved themselves a few shekels.
 

mcpickl

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The most another team could sign him for is 5/127,925,000.

I'm guessing he gets 5/140.
Another team can only offer him four years.

The worry for Phoenix would be if he just signs his qualifying offer and walks as an unrestricted free agent after the 2022-23 season, or that he signs an offer sheet next summer that's for only 3 years with an opt-out for the third year(assuming Phoenix doesn't make him a maximum qualifying offer)

If you actually like the player, you should lock up as many years of his prime as possible.
 

Cellar-Door

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Just need to look at how it went down with John Collins/ATL. Many were 100% convinced he'd get maxed. ATL saved themselves a few shekels.
Sure, though Collins was less of a clear Max guy. The other side is maybe you save a small amount on money, but lose between 1 and 3 years of control, and Ayton skips town after signing a 2+1 and you go into FA with Booker deciding if he wants to commit to you when the roster is Chris Paul, Landry Shamet and Bridges making 65M.

It sets you up to maybe save some cash if things go well, and maybe torpedo the long term future of the franchise if they go poorly.

Edit- and given how Sarver has operated in the past, he's always willing to sacrifice potential title contention for a little extra cash if he thinks he can get away with it.
 

mauf

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What are the odds you’re getting a player as good as Ayton if you let him go or trade him for pupu platter deal? You have Paul in the twilight of his career. You now have Booker and Bridges signed long-term. The Suns finally have a direction and now they’ve pissed off a young building block over a few million / year. I think it’s a very poor business decision.
I agree.

Players take less risk when they bet on themselves than the conventional wisdom supposes. The Suns probably think Ayton will sign an offer sheet next summer, and they might lose a year of control in the bargain. I think he’s going to double down next summer and become an UFA after 2023. Even if the Suns don’t envision Ayton as part of their post-CP3 future, not many of these contracts have negative value two years after they are signed. So I’d rate this move as a mistake.
 

Smokey Joe

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Ayton is a center. There are 4 centers with a max; Embid, Gobert, Jokic and Towns (and Anthony Davis, he just won’t admit it). If you think Ayton is going to become one of those guys, you give him the max. If he does become one of those guys, the Suns will be happy to give him the max. I think they are afraid that he might become Myles Turner, good but not a max player.
 

Smokey Joe

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Yes but according to the article I posted, PHO got smoked when Ayton was off the court. He may not be as good as the Centers you listed but if he walks, PHO will have a hard time filling the hole.
But that’s just it. Adequate centers are cheap allowing you to spend your money elsewhere. You can just plug in a Lopez or a Zeller or a Plumlee. There is a buyers market in centers currently. This is part of the reason why we were able to extend R Williams so reasonably.
 

HomeRunBaker

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But that’s just it. Adequate centers are cheap allowing you to spend your money elsewhere. You can just plug in a Lopez or a Zeller or a Plumlee. There is a buyers market in centers currently. This is part of the reason why we were able to extend R Williams so reasonably.
If the Suns goal is to win a Championship in Chris Paul’s window it sure as hell isn’t happening with Lopez, Plumlee or Zeller replacing Ayton. That isn’t an incremental downgrade……that’s a very significant drop off from a player the Suns really needed on the court last year.
 

Smokey Joe

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If the Suns goal is to win a Championship in Chris Paul’s window it sure as hell isn’t happening with Lopez, Plumlee or Zeller replacing Ayton. That isn’t an incremental downgrade……that’s a very significant drop off from a player the Suns really needed on the court last year.
I think Chris Paul’s window was 5-10 years ago.
In any case, committing to a max contract for a center who hasn’t shown he deserves it yet, to protect Chris Paul’s age 37-40 year old seasons, seems like GM malpractice to me.
 

Cellar-Door

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Not really. I'd rather have the wing, Collins, than the classic Center

Ayton will probably get something similar to Collins 5yrs/$125MM. We can check back in a year
I mean, your positional preference aside, DARKO and RAPTOR and just about everything else have Ayton as the better player both over their respective games 100-200 and over each of the last 2 seasons.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I mean, your positional preference aside, DARKO and RAPTOR and just about everything else have Ayton as the better player both over their respective games 100-200 and over each of the last 2 seasons.
Not everyone cares about DARKO and RAPTOR. I'd take Collins too.
 

Cellar-Door

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Not everyone cares about DARKO and RAPTOR. I'd take Collins too.
That's fine, but basically everything we have to measure players says Ayton is better, and we know enough about how NBA teams evaluate players to know that a good chunk of their internals are similar to the metrics that are public, so some, possibly all of them probably also think Ayton is the more valuable player. If we're looking at future contract estimation that plays a major role. Ayton is in a much better position to get a max deal than Collins was.

Not caring about metrics doesn't mean NBA teams don't care about metrics. We aren't discussing whether WE would give Ayton a max, we're looking at whether he is LIKELY to get the max. And based on performance and trajectory his agent should be much more comfortable in the assumption that he'll get the max or very close to it barring an injury than Collins' was this time last year.