2021-22 NBA Off-season Thread

benhogan

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Would make Powell work a lot better in Portland too. Only issue is that you get a bit clogged with Nurkic+Simmons.

I love Simmons, and I think he'll fetch a decent player, now that Philly is almost guaranteed to move him. But you need a really specific crunch-time lineup around him to maximize what he does.
I'm applying aloe after my post-game glee/hot take.

How much has Simmons value cratered? I still love him also but Doc didn't do the team any favors. OKC should stick their nose in here and get a 3-way going. Ben needs 2 seasons of 3PA on an NBA floor with zero pressure/expectations.

I wonder if Simmons could play Point Center, surrounded by four 3&D wings to lessen the clog.
 
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benhogan

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wade boggs chicken dinner

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It’d just so hard to believe that Morey wouldn’t make the deal over Maxey, that’s why I’m inclined to believe the Fertitta story, crazy as it sounds in a vacuum.
I understand what you mean about Fertitta and certainly don't doubt the rumours that he wasn't going to make a deal with Morey but one would think that Morey is smart enough to know that Fertitta would have to sign-off on the deal before it would get consummated. And that given the history among the parties, Morey wasn't getting Harden unless he made the godfather offer.

Yeah maybe Fertitta was lying to Stone the entire time about his authority to complete the transaction (which has its own set of ramifications) but seems to me that if Morey thought he could make the trade without including Maxey, who is really the most attractive non-Embiid/Simmons asset on the roster, he really misread the tea leaves.
 

DJnVa

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Gonna suck when OKC gives Kemba + #16 for Ben Simmons
Gonna suck for who? We thought Kemba was a negative asset here, would he be any different in Philly? Sixers will have two gimpy stars.
 

Strike4

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the moops

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Gonna suck for who? We thought Kemba was a negative asset here, would he be any different in Philly? Sixers will have two gimpy stars.
Just sort of joking, but I would have much rather turned Kemba + #16 into Ben Simmons (warts and all) instead of Horford and Moses.
 

moondog80

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Just sort of joking, but I would have much rather turned Kemba + #16 into Ben Simmons (warts and all) instead of Horford and Moses.
While we're at it, I would much rather have turned Kemba + 16 into Kevin Durant.
 

the moops

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My guess is Harden backs out because of hamstring. Boooker backs out after his team makes it to the finals and goes late into the summer
 

Kliq

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Most people seemed to think a lot of the top players would punt on the Olympics this year given everything that has happened, but it looks like most of the top guys are heading over. No reason they shouldn't dominate and win gold, even though the world teams continue to improve.

My ideal Team USA is basically a few elite creators (Durant, Dame, Tatum, etc.) surrounded by smart, overqualified role players that can play off-ball (Draymond, Bam, Middleton, Beal, etc.) That would be the most pleasing form of basketball to watch, even if loading up on 30 ppg scorers has its own appeal.
 

TripleOT

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Might want to get some height on that team, lest it loses to a tall, physical team whose players’ names Johnny Most wouldn’t even try to pronounce.
 

DJnVa

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Team USA can't do better than Kevin Love? I'm surprised he even received an invite.
Do we think Love just sends out a "I'll accept" message before anyone realizes he wasn't even invited. He just keeps showing up.
 

Kliq

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I always wonder if the people complaining about GA shooting 3's are the same ones dissing Ben for not shooting.
Giannis has clearly tried to improve his shooting and even though the results have been fairly ugly, he is still a better overall player making 30% of his threes than if he just never shot the ball outside the restricted area. It's easy to be reactionary when he takes a three because it looks like he is "settling" but the reality is he needs to try and keep the defense honest to open up the floor for other teammates and ultimately make it easier for him to drive to the basket by being less predictable.
 

chilidawg

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Giannis has clearly tried to improve his shooting and even though the results have been fairly ugly, he is still a better overall player making 30% of his threes than if he just never shot the ball outside the restricted area. It's easy to be reactionary when he takes a three because it looks like he is "settling" but the reality is he needs to try and keep the defense honest to open up the floor for other teammates and ultimately make it easier for him to drive to the basket by being less predictable.
Does it really keep the defense honest if they just concede him that shot with out contesting? That seems to me what is most often happening.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Does it really keep the defense honest if they just concede him that shot with out contesting? That seems to me what is most often happening.
Exactly. When I have a wager against the Bucks there is nothing I like better than to see Giannis wind up for an uncontested 3 at the top of the circle. It’s the ultimate defensive win without having to expend defensive energy or get into foul trouble.
 

Kliq

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Does it really keep the defense honest if they just concede him that shot with out contesting? That seems to me what is most often happening.
If he makes a couple it absolutely is worth it. HRB mentions that it gets a free stop without wasting defensive energy, but it also gives the Bucks/Giannis free points if he makes a few of this threes, without having to waste any sets or wear Giannis down. We all wish Giannis would shoot a higher percentage, but if he just took it to the basket every time it would become extremely predictable and easier to defend. The best possible outcome for the Bucks is for Giannis to make a couple threes so that defenses have to at least think about contesting them, and he will never reach that point without taking them more often in games.
 

Jimbodandy

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If he makes a couple it absolutely is worth it. HRB mentions that it gets a free stop without wasting defensive energy, but it also gives the Bucks/Giannis free points if he makes a few of this threes, without having to waste any sets or wear Giannis down. We all wish Giannis would shoot a higher percentage, but if he just took it to the basket every time it would become extremely predictable and easier to defend. The best possible outcome for the Bucks is for Giannis to make a couple threes so that defenses have to at least think about contesting them, and he will never reach that point without taking them more often in games.
Yeah I don't get why this is controversial. We just watched how defenses pack the lane against a guy who won't ever shoot outside, and it basically kills the possession for everyone else.
 

Fishy1

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Yeah I don't get why this is controversial. We just watched how defenses pack the lane against a guy who won't ever shoot outside, and it basically kills the possession for everyone else.
The normative argument is, of course, if Giannis were to hit 35% or better of his 3's, he should be taking as many as he's given the opportunity to. Literally no one disagrees with that.

The descriptive argument is that since he's literally never done that and hasn't come close since his rookie season (when he was taking 1.4 attempts per game), everyone is going to pack the paint against him because he can't hit the shot. Even if he hits two in a row they'll continue to pack the paint against him because it's so unlikely he'll hit a third. He had three games all season with more than 2 threes made. It just doesn't happen.
 

Kliq

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The normative argument is, of course, if Giannis were to hit 35% or better of his 3's, he should be taking as many as he's given the opportunity to. Literally no one disagrees with that.

The descriptive argument is that since he's literally never done that and hasn't come close since his rookie season (when he was taking 1.4 attempts per game), everyone is going to pack the paint against him because he can't hit the shot. Even if he hits two in a row they'll continue to pack the paint against him because it's so unlikely he'll hit a third. He had three games all season with more than 2 threes made. It just doesn't happen.
I'm always kind of confused by three point percentage and how very small changes in a percentile have tremendously different perceptions. If he made 5% more of his threes he'd be considered a good shooter? That doesn't make that much logical sense within the scope of a game.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm always kind of confused by three point percentage and how very small changes in a percentile have tremendously different perceptions. If he made 5% more of his threes he'd be considered a good shooter? That doesn't make that much logical sense within the scope of a game.
It adds up as a team, anyway. We do it in baseball too with batting average and OBP.
 

Average Game James

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I'm always kind of confused by three point percentage and how very small changes in a percentile have tremendously different perceptions. If he made 5% more of his threes he'd be considered a good shooter? That doesn't make that much logical sense within the scope of a game.
5% is a lot. League average 3P% this year was 36.7%. Steph Curry is a career 42.1% from 3…
 

Jimbodandy

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5% is a lot. League average 3P% this year was 36.7%. Steph Curry is a career 42.1% from 3…
Right but in a seven game series, it's statistically insignificant. Both guys take 10 shots and hit 4. At 20 shots, one hits 8 and the other, 7.

Someone in the last few years posted the contest numbers here, and the numbers said that defenses cover 3pt shooters whether they're good or not. Guys aren't packing the lane saying "well he’s only gonna hit 7 of 20 from there, not 8 for 20, so I'll just park in this lane and fuck spacing."
 

BaseballJones

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Right but in a seven game series, it's statistically insignificant. Both guys take 10 shots and hit 4. At 20 shots, one hits 8 and the other, 7.

Someone in the last few years posted the contest numbers here, and the numbers said that defenses cover 3pt shooters whether they're good or not. Guys aren't packing the lane saying "well he’s only gonna hit 7 of 20 from there, not 8 for 20, so I'll just park in this lane and fuck spacing."
Ben Simmons being an obvious exception to this.
 

radsoxfan

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Do we think Love just sends out a "I'll accept" message before anyone realizes he wasn't even invited. He just keeps showing up.
Was just going to ask about this. Who the heck invited Love?

Last guy on the bench probably doesn’t matter but what a weird early addition.

He shouldn’t be on the team unless 30 more forwards opt-out.
 

Fishy1

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Right but in a seven game series, it's statistically insignificant. Both guys take 10 shots and hit 4. At 20 shots, one hits 8 and the other, 7.

Someone in the last few years posted the contest numbers here, and the numbers said that defenses cover 3pt shooters whether they're good or not. Guys aren't packing the lane saying "well he’s only gonna hit 7 of 20 from there, not 8 for 20, so I'll just park in this lane and fuck spacing."
It's not statistically insignificant, and of course they do say that, because they're doing anything they can to stop the best player on the other team from taking the shots he's best at.

Opposing teams want Giannis to take 7 or 8 threes. They DO pack the paint against Giannis, precisely because they want to dare him to shoot. And when they do pack the paint, it makes it very difficult for him and others in the Bucks to attack the basket. He didn't take 10 or 20 3s in this last series, he took 31, and only made 8 of them.

Im, like, really confused. Is the argument that it doesn't matter how good a basketball llayer is at shooting the basketball?
 

Cellar-Door

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Was just going to ask about this. Who the heck invited Love?

Last guy on the bench probably doesn’t matter but what a weird early addition.

He shouldn’t be on the team unless 30 more forwards opt-out.
He's honestly pretty good for international games. He's got size is a legit stretch big and good rebounder, and in the Olympics he's not really a defensive liability, you just stick him in the paint and leave him there.
 

radsoxfan

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He's honestly pretty good for international games. He's got size is a legit stretch big and good rebounder, and in the Olympics he's not really a defensive liability, you just stick him in the paint and leave him there.
The artist formally known as Kevin Love was.

I get that his skillset works for international play, but you have to actually still be good at that skillset.

I mean he's fine at the end of the bench, it's not going to matter. But there is no way he is the best we have to offer at this point.
 

Jimbodandy

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It's not statistically insignificant, and of course they do say that, because they're doing anything they can to stop the best player on the other team from taking the shots he's best at.

Opposing teams want Giannis to take 7 or 8 threes. They DO pack the paint against Giannis, precisely because they want to dare him to shoot. And when they do pack the paint, it makes it very difficult for him and others in the Bucks to attack the basket. He didn't take 10 or 20 3s in this last series, he took 31, and only made 8 of them.

Im, like, really confused. Is the argument that it doesn't matter how good a basketball llayer is at shooting the basketball?
Did I say that?

So are you saying that Giannis was covered the same way that Simmons is covered, everyone stepping 10 feet away and leaving him at the elbow?

1 miss out of 20 is not significant enough for guys to sag off. The challenge numbers posted before in this forum proved it.

I lack the search skill to find it, but I'm certain that I wasn't the only one to read it here. It came up in the context of Marcus Smart's shot selection IIRC. Tl;dr: if you shoot it, they will come (try to block you).
 

lovegtm

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Man, Giannis stans really reaching here. The dude is shooting 30% for the past 4 years on very very uncontested 3s with no sign of improvement.

Not sure why people can't just accept that he's a very good player with severe limitations, who may well win a title this year because he's good enough to, but required a ton of injury luck to get past Brooklyn.
 

Kliq

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The quality of posts in the Port Cellar over I don't know, maybe the past 18 months, has gone significantly downhill. I know the Celtics season was miserable, but it feels like just a few serial posters constantly pushing the same thoughts/agendas and a bunch of people overreacting to recent results. Giannis had a fantastic series if you look at the stats (and his team won) and if you look at the posts surrounding the series and you would think he laid an egg. Maybe I've just gotten more ornery, IDK, but I've personally become significantly less engaged in the forum as it has sort of devolved into sports-talk radio, with the same callers bringing up the same points.
 

HomeRunBaker

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If he makes a couple it absolutely is worth it. HRB mentions that it gets a free stop without wasting defensive energy, but it also gives the Bucks/Giannis free points if he makes a few of this threes, without having to waste any sets or wear Giannis down. We all wish Giannis would shoot a higher percentage, but if he just took it to the basket every time it would become extremely predictable and easier to defend. The best possible outcome for the Bucks is for Giannis to make a couple threes so that defenses have to at least think about contesting them, and he will never reach that point without taking them more often in games.
I’m not sure I understand. So if he makes enough then it is absolutely worth it for the Bucks that he shoots them? Yeah, I agree with this........and 8 years in he still hasn’t so defenses continue letting him try. What is hard about recognizing that when he does shoot those open 3’s it hurts the Bucks and helps the defense?
 

Devizier

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Honestly, watching the Bucks-Nets, it’s Giannis’ passing that stands out as his weakness to me. Teams can sag but he still beats that defense more often than not. But when he gets in trouble he usually rifles a pass that puts his teammates out of position. They also seem to be out of the play a lot.

That said, he is still awesome, has a good title shot this year, and I would trade everything but Tatum for him.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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I guess my question would be if there's value to a 30% three point shot in the last five minutes of a playoff game when defenses are locked in on denying easy shots and the refs are swallowing their whistles and making it hard to get to the line. Would a 45% midrange shot be seen as a positive value play there? Same value (other than when it's a buzzer beater in a 1 point game) as a 30% three point shot there and we often talk about how someone like Tatum needs to have a midrange iso game for those late game playoff scenarios, even if it's not the most efficient shot under other conditions. I don't know how standard shooting percentages look in those situations compared to regular season shooting percentages, and whether that 30% three point shot/45% midrange shot is a decent value there, but I could see it either way.