2021-2028 Pats: Is Bill the man for the Re-Billed?

[Lose Remerswaal]

Current top 20 QBs by passer rating, and where they were drafted....



So 4 of them were #1 overall picks. But 12 of the 20 were picked 10th or later. And 4 of them (same as #1 overall) were picked out of the first round entirely.

So is it possible to find your next franchise QB picking where New England is? Absolutely it's possible.

I'm a bit out of practice, but is Passer Rating considered important? I know from Football Reference that TB led the league in QBR twice, and QBR wasn't a stat his first few years, and he led in Passer rating the same two years (2007 + 2010), but I thought Passer Rating was mostly ignored by serious statheads

 

[lexrageorge]

I'm a bit out of practice, but is Passer Rating considered important? I know from Football Reference that TB led the league in QBR twice, and QBR wasn't a stat his first few years, and he led in Passer rating the same two years (2007 + 2010), but I thought Passer Rating was mostly ignored by serious statheads

The main complaint about passer rating is that it overweights TD passes, which are very team and context dependent; analogous to RBI's.

QBR is a complete black box, and even the promoter of it cannot say whether they changed the formula used to calculate it over the years.

I think it's fair to say that good QBs tend to have good passer ratings more consistently than bad QBs. And a QB that leads the league in passer rating multiple times is probably a very good QB. But deciding which QB had the better season based on 10 points of difference in passer rating or QBR is a fool's errand at this point.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

The main complaint about passer rating is that it overweights TD passes, which are very team and context dependent; analogous to RBI's.

QBR is a complete black box, and even the promoter of it cannot say whether they changed the formula used to calculate it over the years.

I think it's fair to say that good QBs tend to have good passer ratings more consistently than bad QBs. And a QB that leads the league in passer rating multiple times is probably a very good QB. But deciding which QB had the better season based on 10 points of difference in passer rating or QBR is a fool's errand at this point.

I appreciate the synopsis

 

[Cellar-Door]

It is shocking to me that a QB that had all of one year under his belt for UNC was drafted 8 slots ahead of Mahomes. The only 2 negatives I could see with Mahomes' college stats are that (a) he threw a fair number of picks; and (b) his rushing average wasn't all that great (2.2 ypc his final season). 2 running backs and a safety were taken ahead of both Mahomes and DeShaun Watson.

If you look at the teams that were drafting ahead of KC/Buffalo/Houston in that draft:

Cleveland: Had so many holes that I cannot fault them for picking the defensive star of that draft.
Bears: Picked Trubisky
49'ers: Colin Kaepernick had a subpar season, but hard to know what they were thinking, and ended up with JG.
Jax: Had recently drafted the immortal Blake Bortles with the #3 pick.
Titans: Had drafted Mariota 2 years previously.
Jets: Need I explain more?
Chargers: Were admittedly all set at QB, but still surprising that they didn't at least look into picking for the future with Rivers turning 35
Bengals: See NYJ above.
Saints*: Not really in the market for a QB at the time, so cannot blame them for passing on Watson, and Lattimore has at least made the Pro Bowl.

Bills at least got a lot of draft capital in return, and netted themselves an All-Pro CB and a solid starter at linebacker out of the deal as a result.

We should say that even at the time the general rection to Trubisky was "HUH?" Everyone expected Watson there though also, amusingly if I remember correctly it was seen as a weak QB class.
As to the teams I generally agree:
CLE: Garrett was a monster, and they knew they were tearing down another year so they expected a QB the next year (they got it in Baker)
49ers: Team was a mess and Kap was not far removed from being great... also took Beathard in the 3rd, defensible decision making
JAX: Bortles was actually decent before playing through a shoulder injury... though that they took Fournette at #3 also lets you know that they are terrible at drafting
TEN: Yep Mariota was always getting more time
NYJ: Had just used a 2nd on Hackenberg as well, but that's a pick you cut bait on if he couldn't even back-up as a rookie and you have a top 10 pick.
LAC: No reason to use a 1st, Rivers was a top QB and was likely to stay that way through most of any pick's rookie deal
Bengals: Pretty defensable, they had Dalton, who was above average and locking into a long-term deal. He was great 2 years before, and good despite a terrible O-line the year preceding the draft.
Saints: Yeah, they had a HOF QB still in the top 5 or so in the league.

So really I'd say the Jets and Bears, are the only really terrible calls there in terms of at the time knowledge.

 

[mauf]

I'm voting no. Its mainly because he doesn't have a franchise QB in the organization who can cover up some of his big personnel misses the last few years. While the Patriots will have a ton of cap space, they have massive holes all across the roster starting with the most important position in the NFL. They also won't be able to attract free agents without giving them the most guaranteed money now either as what motivation do free agents have to come to New England now as they are not even a title contender or even close. QB is the most important position in football and Bill can't just neglect it for some middle of the pack guy. Only 4 times in the last 20 years has a team won a title with a QB who wasn't a future HOF QB. Baltimore (Dilfer, Flacco), Tampa (Brad Johnson), Philadelphia (Foles). Barring a career ending injury Mahomes is a HOF QB and every other team the last 20 years except the ones I mentioned had HOF QB's and that includes Eli who will get in. I also expect to see guys like the McCourty's probably retire, Slater as well and who knows with Chung or Hightower. That's a ton of veteran leadership gone right there. Anyone that expects this to be a quick fix is wearing rose colored glasses. The roster stinks in many places. Its so much worse than what it was in 2000 when he had the defense in place for the first 3 title runs.

Your criteria are circular. Eli is going to be a HOFer because he won two rings, not because he was an elite QB. Wilson is an elite QB now, but wasn’t when he won his ring. Similarly, Peyton is an all-time great but wasn’t even league-average when he won his second ring. And we’re a couple odd bounces away from having Colin Kaepernick and Matt Ryan on the list (though Kap would replace Flacco).

There’s no doubt that the single best predictor of success in the NFL is having an elite QB, but teams have succeeded without that. Sometimes teams compensate for non-elite QB play with elite defense, but sometimes teams are just good enough to make the playoffs and manage to get hot at the right time. I think the Pats will need to place a significant bet on a young QB in the next couple years. If the right opportunity doesn’t present itself, however, all is not lost if they instead try to find a league-average QB on the cheap and roll out a more complete roster.

 

[BaseballJones]

I'm a bit out of practice, but is Passer Rating considered important? I know from Football Reference that TB led the league in QBR twice, and QBR wasn't a stat his first few years, and he led in Passer rating the same two years (2007 + 2010), but I thought Passer Rating was mostly ignored by serious statheads

I just used it as a quick measure to talk about the better QBs in the NFL and see where they're drafted. That's all.

 

[Captaincoop]

Your criteria are circular. Eli is going to be a HOFer because he won two rings, not because he was an elite QB. Wilson is an elite QB now, but wasn’t when he won his ring. Similarly, Peyton is an all-time great but wasn’t even league-average when he won his second ring. And we’re a couple odd bounces away from having Colin Kaepernick and Matt Ryan on the list (though Kap would replace Flacco).

There’s no doubt that the single best predictor of success in the NFL is having an elite QB, but teams have succeeded without that. Sometimes teams compensate for non-elite QB play with elite defense, but sometimes teams are just good enough to make the playoffs and manage to get hot at the right time. I think the Pats will need to place a significant bet on a young QB in the next couple years. If the right opportunity doesn’t present itself, however, all is not lost if they instead try to find a league-average QB on the cheap and roll out a more complete roster.

Agree completely. And I bet Belichick does as well.

As great as the Brady-led Pats were, they lost a Super Bowl to Nick Folk and damn near lost another one to Jake Delhomme. You're not getting there 9 times with those guys, but if you're talking about building one last contender it could work.

 

[lexrageorge]

Agree completely. And I bet Belichick does as well.

As great as the Brady-led Pats were, they lost a Super Bowl to Nick Folk and damn near lost another one to Jake Delhomme. You're not getting there 9 times with those guys, but if you're talking about building one last contender it could work.

Losing a Super Bowl to a placekicker playing QB would be a whole other level of disappointment.

 

[mauf]

Losing a Super Bowl to a placekicker playing QB would be a whole other level of disappointment.

My son (Jaguars fan) would argue that Folk might be an upgrade on Foles.

 

[Captaincoop]

Losing a Super Bowl to a placekicker playing QB would be a whole other level of disappointment.

D'oh. Although I'm not sure it would have felt any worse.

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

Losing a Super Bowl to a placekicker playing QB would be a whole other level of disappointment.

Big Kick Nick

 

[8slim]

Its a huge job but I'd rather bet on BB than whoever would replace him.

I think people underestimate both (a) how difficult it is to put together and keep a good GM/HC team from scratch (b) the particular difficulties any organization faces when trying to replace somebody who was the decision maker at all levels of the organization and who is a total legend whose shoes are impossible to fill.

Even with a good ownership group, if BB leaves the most likely scenario is that we churn through a bunch of HC and GM hires who fail to put together the personnel group and stable management structures that will allow for sustained success going forward. That's the most likely scenario for any NFL team starting with a crappy roster.

The first season I remember following the Pats was 1981. I was 8, and the team went 2-14. After what he’s built *and* maintained over the past 20 years, it’s mind blowing to me that anyone wouldn’t have faith in Bill. Particularly because I watched the seven head coaches, and multiple GMs, before him largely fail, and often fail miserably.