2021-2022 Yankees Offseason Discussion

crow216

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Some “rumors” swirling but nothing concrete that the Padres could be interested in Mr. Boone. Nothing is solid enough but a bit of discussion on twitter
 

jon abbey

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And good luck, enjoy. They hired Larry Rothschild after NY dumped him too, that worked out well.
 

terrynever

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Maybe they like that Boone won 60 percent of his games over 4 seasons. I get the anger, Jon and Crow, but Boone had a lot to do with his team’s outcomes.
 

jon abbey

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Maybe they like that Boone won 60 percent of his games over 4 seasons. I get the anger, Jon and Crow, but Boone had a lot to do with his team’s outcomes.
Not really, NY has been absolutely loaded with talent during his whole tenure.
 

EvilEmpire

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San Diego has talent, too. Just couldn’t get players to mesh. Boone might be too smart to walk into that situation but then again, his real strength is in the clubhouse.
That's the way I see it too. I won't be surprised at all if Boone goes elsewhere and does well.

I also don't think his weaknesses are set in stone. I'm sure he has learned a lot so far as a manager and will continue to do so.
 

terrynever

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That's the way I see it too. I won't be surprised at all if Boone goes elsewhere and does well.

I also don't think his weaknesses are set in stone. I'm sure he has learned a lot so far as a manager and will continue to do so.
Abbey hates him. But I think when Yankee braintrust sits down to analyze this season, they will assess blame on key injuries to DJ, Britton, O’Day and the decision to sign Kluber with his injury history. If Hal Steinbrenner is totally honest, he pins blame on Cashman, Boone, Thames, and about 10 others. Fire Boone is a knee-jerk reaction.
 

jon abbey

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I don’t hate him, he seems like a perfectly nice person. But he was a bad hire and has consistently hurt the team with his managing decisions, especially in the postseason (not this year). He should have been fired this summer and now that his contract is up, it would be insane to double down on this proven mediocrity.
 

terrynever

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I don’t hate him, he seems like a perfectly nice person. But he was a bad hire and has consistently hurt the team with his managing decisions, especially in the postseason (not this year). He should have been fired this summer and now that his contract is up, it would be insane to double down on this proven mediocrity.
Hate is too strong a word. Sorry for that. But it’s too easy to pin blame on one guy who doesn’t even play.
 

jon abbey

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Hate is too strong a word. Sorry for that. But it’s too easy to pin blame on one guy who doesn’t even play.
I'm certainly not pinning all the blame on him, but he is the most easily replaceable and upgradeable piece and that is where NY absolutely needs to start. Nevin should go too, but he is Boone's buddy so he will go when Boone does. Thames probably too (sorry Marcus, I always liked you) and then NY can focus on personnel moves.
 

terrynever

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I'm certainly not pinning all the blame on him, but he is the most easily replaceable and upgradeable piece and that is where NY absolutely needs to start. Nevin should go too, but he is Boone's buddy so he will go when Boone does. Thames probably too (sorry Marcus, I always liked you) and then NY can focus on personnel moves.
Certainly that is the proper order. Boone first. Stay or go? Who’s out there? EE had a good take earlier. Find an experienced manager … who can run a game and a pitching staff. How many of those exist and are between jobs? Boone might stay because nobody is out there capable of stepping into this cauldron.
 

jon abbey

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It does not need to be an experienced manager, I disagree with that part. Alex Cora was Houston’s bench coach before coming to BOS, Joe Espada is Houston’s bench coach now and was with NY for a while before that. Start with him, try Raul Ibanez again, Beltran for me would be great, just hire someone smarter than Boone. He’s not an idiot but he’s not smart enough for this specific job.
 

terrynever

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It does not need to be an experienced manager, I disagree with that part. Alex Cora was Houston’s bench coach before coming to BOS, Joe Espada is Houston’s bench coach now and was with NY for a while before that. Start with him, try Raul Ibanez again, Beltran for me would be great, just hire someone smarter than Boone. He’s not an idiot but he’s not smart enough for this specific job.
Is Cashman grooming anyone to replace himself eventually?
 

jon abbey

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Cashman had a terrible 2020-2021 offseason but the upcoming core is exciting and the difference between this core and the previous one is where they are on the defensive spectrum, next wave is all shortstops and center fielders (and borderline catchers, guys who are in maybe the #16-#30 range for NY's prospects but we'll see if any of them ever make it), and the current one was a 2B/RF/C/1B (Gleyber, Judge, Sanchez, Bird). Three of those guys have been All-Stars and the other hit maybe the most memorable HR in the last decade of NY baseball, so it's clearly a very high bar for the next core, but the thought of multiple genuine SSs and CFs in NY's defensive infield and outfield is exciting. Volpe is a superstar with the bat but only average defensively at SS? Put him at 2B and let Peraza take SS, or push Peraza to 3B and give Roderick Arias SS. The Martin is too bulky to stay in CF long-term (possible)? Move him to right and let Florial or Pereira take CF.

So I do think NY's 2022 is a one year window for the current core, but the (hopeful) core behind is getting closer. I think Cashman's job will be to maximize 2022 while not mortgaging the next core, and the obvious way to do that is to spend money in the FA market with a lot of serious talent out there, even though we all know the majority of longer term deals end up being bad for the team. As usual, I am glad I am not making Cashman's decisions, many obvious All-Stars (Correa is a long-time dream pickup) but the ideal for NY would be this year's equivalents to Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray and Keekay Hernandez, huge impact guys on much shorter deals. Easier said than done, show us whatcha got, Cashman.
 

terrynever

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Cashman had a terrible 2020-2021 offseason but the upcoming core is exciting and the difference between this core and the previous one is where they are on the defensive spectrum, next wave is all shortstops and center fielders (and borderline catchers, guys who are in maybe the #16-#30 range for NY's prospects but we'll see if any of them ever make it), and the current one was a 2B/RF/C/1B (Gleyber, Judge, Sanchez, Bird). Three of those guys have been All-Stars and the other hit maybe the most memorable HR in the last decade of NY baseball, so it's clearly a very high bar for the next core, but the thought of multiple genuine SSs and CFs in NY's defensive infield and outfield is exciting. Volpe is a superstar with the bat but only average defensively at SS? Put him at 2B and let Peraza take SS, or push Peraza to 3B and give Roderick Arias SS. The Martin is too bulky to stay in CF long-term (possible)? Move him to right and let Florial or Pereira take CF.

So I do think NY's 2022 is a one year window for the current core, but the (hopeful) core behind is getting closer. I think Cashman's job will be to maximize 2022 while not mortgaging the next core, and the obvious way to do that is to spend money in the FA market with a lot of serious talent out there, even though we all know the majority of longer term deals end up being bad for the team. As usual, I am glad I am not making Cashman's decisions, many obvious All-Stars (Correa is a long-time dream pickup) but the ideal for NY would be this year's equivalents to Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray and Keekay Hernandez, huge impact guys on much shorter deals. Easier said than done, show us whatcha got, Cashman.
Thanks, Jon. I love that analysis. The future is good, even if the division is a monster.
 

jon abbey

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NY has 4 top 100 prospects at Fangraphs currently who are SSs (3) or CF (The Martian). Alex Vargas is looking a bit dubious with NY not promoting him even to low A, he turns 20 this month. The other three look very strong though (Volpe, Peraza, Dominguez). In addition to those, here are four more in the SS/CF depth chart currently, the top two guys here will be top 100 very shortly, the other two had fantastic seasons at AA and a little AAA for Cabrera and so at least deserve to be mentioned.

1) Roderick Arias will hit the list once he actually signs in January, the #1 IFA this year and the equivalent of a top 5 pick in the draft (Arias specifically, according to some recent chat).

2) Everson Pereira, the only reason he is not on every top 100 list already is small sample size. Volpe jumped into everyone's top 20 overall this year, Pereira was born the same month as him (April 2001, we are all so old), plays a solid CF to Volpe's solid SS, played at the same levels as him this year (low A then high A for most of the year), hitting 1-2 for Hudson Valley for most of the season, and Pereira outproduced Volpe. It was admittedly in limited ABs but Pereira had a ridiculous 14 HRs in 108 ABs in high A (1.030 OPS), Volpe hitting just ahead of him had 15 HRs in 213 ABs, .978 OPS. Pereira has to be protected on the 40 man and almost certainly will, NY is lucky that part of the Gallo deal fell through.

3) Oswaldo Cabrera, 5'10", 145 (!!!) and probably more of a 2B than a SS but he can play both and 3B too. He turns 23 in March, but that means 2021 was his year 22 season and he broke out in AA this year although he was overshadowed by Peraza on his own team and all the other exciting guys up and down the system. But he had 24 HRs and 78 RBIs in 437 ABs, a solid .803. But then he got one of the final two week promotions to AAA and he went absolutely nuts there in 9 games, 5 HRs and a 1.717 OPS, OBP of .583. So that has probably pushed him onto the 'needs to be protected on the 40 man or traded' list.

4) Brandon Lockridge, a CF and a 5th round pick in 2018, seemed to break out in AA this year with a .940 OPS in 174 ABs. He will turn 25 in March, Cashman might roll the dice with him and hope no one takes him but someone definitely might.

That doesn't count Florial who turns 24 next month, he has never gotten nearly enough regular ABs and started to maybe settle in down the stretch in AAA after he did, .912 OPS in September. We have seen already that he belongs in MLB athletically and he has played very well in minimal ABs (.950 OPS in MLB, just 23 career ABs).
 

jon abbey

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I could live with Boone on a one year deal with a serious dedicated bullpen consultant, but he doesn't deserve it any more than he deserved the job to begin with.
 

EvilEmpire

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So if the Yankees offer Boone a new contract, what is it going to be? Two years with an eye toward canning him after year one if the team underachieves next season? Abbey's posts yesterday describe the team situation pretty well. They've got one year left with the current core. Without great success next season, I just can't see them keeping Boone in charge to manage that transition.
 

terrynever

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Keeping Boone is the safe choice, a conservative choice, very typical of this franchise under Hal and Cash. They want to be seen as progressive but stats are just one part of the equation. Yanks under Hal/Cash prefer management stability over progressive thinking and always have, at least since The Boss departed. Maybe that is the lingering reaction to The Boss’s four decades of chaos.
 

crow216

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Any chance this is more of a trial balloon to see how the fanbase reacts? I find it hard to believe they would bring him back.
Doubt it. The front office doesn’t care about fan reactions the way they used to. Though, I’d argue that the no lefties in the lineup would have probably not been a major issue for Cashman without some pressure.

It is clear they like Boone. If they think he still runs the clubhouse and don’t see a few bullpen management mistakes as a major issue, then I guess they have no reason to make a change. Clearly, the fans see something that they don’t though. Or the fans see something that management disagrees with.
 

jon abbey

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Now the rumor is they want to keep Boone but at least fire Nevin and Thames. Hopefully they only offer Boone one year and he feels insulted and leaves.
 

crow216

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I have to take a deeper look at Cot's but if this analysis is right, mega changes are coming. https://viewsfrom314ft.com/a-look-at-the-yankees-payroll-entering-the-offseason/

Essentially, with post arbitration estimates factored in, the Yankees will be at 220m next year for all the players who aren't free agents.

Within the arbitration estimates are
$7.9m for Sanchez
$6.2M for Urshela
$5.9M for Torres
$2.4M for Frazier
$1.7M for Andujar

Noteable big salaries for next year
$17.5M for Chapman
$15M for DJ
$14M for Britton
$10M for Hicks

Every player I just named should be talked about in trades.
 

jon abbey

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Yankee Twitter is at its alltime dumbest and that is saying something. There is a consensus to fire many of the analytic guys as if any of those knuckleheads have one iota of the specifics there. I’d like to point out that in the last 12 months NY added all of these pitchers at minimal cost:

Nestor Cortes Jr (non-40 man FA)
Lucas Luetge (non-40 man FA)
Clay Holmes (2 guys NY couldn’t protect this winter)
Wandy Peralta (old buddy Mike Tauchman, who sucked with SF too)
Stephen Ridings (non-40 man FA)

Those five all have a bunch of years of team control too, that’s a lot of quality depth to add at minimal cost.
 
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jon abbey

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I don’t think Chapman is going anywhere in his final year and Britton is out for the whole season, but I’d move Chad Green’s final year probably. Give other guys besides Chapman and Loaisiga late-inning chances to better see what NY has in house before Chapman hits FA.
 

Apisith

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I have to take a deeper look at Cot's but if this analysis is right, mega changes are coming. https://viewsfrom314ft.com/a-look-at-the-yankees-payroll-entering-the-offseason/

Essentially, with post arbitration estimates factored in, the Yankees will be at 220m next year for all the players who aren't free agents.

Within the arbitration estimates are
$7.9m for Sanchez
$6.2M for Urshela
$5.9M for Torres
$2.4M for Frazier
$1.7M for Andujar

Noteable big salaries for next year
$17.5M for Chapman
$15M for DJ
$14M for Britton
$10M for Hicks

Every player I just named should be talked about in trades.
Yup, this looks right and fits with what I mentioned earlier that a lot really depends on ownership and how they view being over the tax. But really, there’s no way to stay competitive and under the tax. The core that came up in 2016/2017 is becoming expensive and there aren’t enough high-quality pre-arb players. Like jon mentioned earlier, ownership should commit to being two to three years over the tax and build a bridge to when the next crop of highly rated players will graduate. Scherzer for 2 years/$70m and Verlander for 1 year/$25m. You can dip under the tax again in two years.

You’ll be at ~$270m with a really good lineup and a ridiculous rotation of Cole, Verlander, Scherzer, Severino and Montgomery.

You gotta see what you have with Schmidt, Deivi and Gil as well. They’re a part of the next core.
 

crow216

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I’m pretty sure both of those guys hate NY. Oddly, I would consider bringing Kluber back. He was hurt but not bad. Had he gotten time in October I think he would have done quite well.
 

Apisith

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I’m pretty sure both of those guys hate NY. Oddly, I would consider bringing Kluber back. He was hurt but not bad. Had he gotten time in October I think he would have done quite well.
I guess the point is that if you’re going to go over the limit, why go over ten or twenty million? And you guys have made the point that your next crop of talented position players are all SSs and CFs, so committing to Correa or Seager doesn’t fit the players you have coming up soon.
 

crow216

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I guess the point is that if you’re going to go over the limit, why go over ten or twenty million? And you guys have made the point that your next crop of talented position players are all SSs and CFs, so committing to Correa or Seager doesn’t fit the players you have coming up soon.
Cashman’s job isn’t easy, that’s for sure. I agree on Correa and Seager but I’d still rather see roster changes in the lineup than the rotation. Do both, sure, but we’ve got a lot of pitching talent. I don’t say no to Scherzer but can’t see Verlander happening
 

jon abbey

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I guess the point is that if you’re going to go over the limit, why go over ten or twenty million? And you guys have made the point that your next crop of talented position players are all SSs and CFs, so committing to Correa or Seager doesn’t fit the players you have coming up soon.
NY has a whole infield to fill longer term, all four positions are open or upgrade possibilities. Also Seager is a 3B ideally, I think.

Also we don’t know what the CBA will be but under the current one, if you go over $250M, I believe you lose international money and NY is currently linked to the top prospect in Jan 2023, Cuban CF Brandon Mayea. He becomes eligible later in 2022 because of the changed deadlines so it’s unclear if he’ll still wait until Jan 2023 and NY as previously agreed, but if he is, Cashman will know and that may necessitate staying under $250M (assuming the same CBA but obv we have no idea).
 

Apisith

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If Verlander says no then Morton who’s proven in the AL East and will only want a short term deal. He was excellent this year, his velocity held up but not sure if he’s willing to move again.
 

nvalvo

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Some “rumors” swirling but nothing concrete that the Padres could be interested in Mr. Boone. Nothing is solid enough but a bit of discussion on twitter
I would imagine that San Diego tries as hard as they can to lure one Bruce Bochy out of retirement. He lives in San Diego, so it might even work.
 

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What kind of contract is Correa going to be looking for? He's not a guy I'd back up the truck for with the intent to get him to change positions so early in the deal.
 

jon abbey

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That's why Seager might be a better fit even though Correa is a better player, Correa is much more likely to stick at SS longer-term so will be pricier, plus Seager is a lefty. Cashman has liked Story for a while also.
 

crow216

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What kind of contract is Correa going to be looking for? He's not a guy I'd back up the truck for with the intent to get him to change positions so early in the deal.
Agree. Lot of people will be paying attention to him this October. He turned down 6/125 from the Astros so you imagine he's gonna storm out the gate asking for Lindor money and maybe wind up in the 200-250 range.
 

jon abbey

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Agree. Lot of people will be paying attention to him this October. He turned down 6/125 from the Astros so you imagine he's gonna storm out the gate asking for Lindor money and maybe wind up in the 200-250 range.
I think he gets 280 at a minimum, especially if he finishes this postseason hot, and maybe more. As PW said, DET have long been rumored for him and now HOU is starting to talk about trying to bring him back.