2021-2022 Yankees Offseason Discussion

Murderer's Crow

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As always, Lindsay Adler hits the nail on the head

“The Yankees’ recent approach creates a system where nearly every move can be justified through the lens of smart decision-making that, in a vacuum, is often difficult to disagree with. But the birds-eye view offers a less flattering image: A patchwork roster made up of certified stars, aging or former stars, high-ceiling unproven players and a need for most things to go right for them to reach their full potential.”

https://theathletic.com/3197199/2022/03/19/adler-why-didnt-the-yankees-sign-carlos-correa-what-the-missed-connection-says-about-the-teams-approach/?source=user_shared_article
 

jon abbey

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She absolutely doesn't, you can't write that article without mentioning Brandon Mayea.
 

jon abbey

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Again, it's quite possible that Cashman came into this winter knowing that he could not go over $270M (after the CBA was signed and the number decided) or sign any guys who had received a QO. No one has announced this but their spending behavior sure seems to dovetail with it nicely, and if so, that is all about making sure they will get the already committed but not locked in Mayea in January.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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I gotta say, if the Yankees are wasting the Judge-Stanton-Cole window because of a 17-year-old shortstop who might sign with them then that is dumb.

Prospects are fun and all, but passing on Correa and Freeman and all the other big names because of a teenager is pretty dumb.
 

jon abbey

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I gotta say, if the Yankees are wasting the Judge-Stanton-Cole window because of a 17-year-old shortstop who might sign with them then that is dumb.

Prospects are fun and all, but passing on Correa and Freeman and all the other big names because of a teenager is pretty dumb.
We'll see in five or ten years, I guess. Spending big money backfires as often as it pays off in baseball, though, people seem to forget this every winter. Josh Donaldson was a sexy FA signing two winters ago, now MIN gave him away even though he is still really good and has just two years left.
 

RIrooter09

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We'll see in five or ten years, I guess. Spending big money backfires as often as it pays off in baseball, though, people seem to forget this every winter. Josh Donaldson was a sexy FA signing two winters ago, now MIN gave him away even though he is still really good and has just two years left.
So did the Donaldson signing backfire, or are the Twins' owners just trying to pocket revenue sharing money?
 

jon abbey

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So did the Donaldson signing backfire, or are the Twins' owners just trying to pocket revenue sharing money?
I don't know really, my point is more that sexy FA signings turn into albatross contracts quite often and sometimes almost immediately.
 

RIrooter09

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I don't know really, my point is more that sexy FA signings turn into albatross contracts quite often and sometimes almost immediately.
Yeah, but you admitted Donaldson is still a really good player. So it's not an albatross contract.
 

thehitcat

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As a Sox fan I am thrilled to live in a time where the Yankees are self-imposing spending limits on themselves so that they can potentially find the next A-Rod or Manny Ramirez. If I were a Yankees fan I'd be worried that a lot can happen in 5 years and that superstar teenager can turn into a Double A flame out pretty easily.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, but you admitted Donaldson is still a really good player. So it's not an albatross contract.
It was for the Twins, what I don't know is why they felt that way, what their budget is, etc. It will be interesting to compare the 2022 production of Correa/Gio ($41M) and Donaldson/IKF ($28M) though.
 

Thurms Ghost

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This gets brought up very often in the Yankeesverse and I suppose we never even consider it much here on SOSH but what would it take for Cashman to lose his role as GM? By all measures except WS titles, Cashman has done an incredible job as the Yankees GM. Unfortunately, fans have been and are growing more impatient with their expectations each season. I'm slowly moving in that direction also. I would love to see a WS and there's no reason a team who spends this kind of money on the payroll, player development, and analytics can't figure it out.

This offseason is more noteworthy than any others because of a fantastic free agent class which we have mostly not taken part of. The Yankees haven't signed any premium free agents and have opted to fill their roster via somewhat underwhelming trades while still winding up with a payroll that will very likely wind up exceeding $250m.

For the team with the biggest reputation for spending, here are the biggest free agent contracts of the last 5 years.

Cole 9/324
DJL 6/90
Chapman 5/86
Britton 3/39
Rizzo 2/32
Paxton 1/12.5
Didi 1/11.5
Kluber 1/11

Cole was just about as big of a slam dunk as possible and aces that young never make free agency. So, are we dealing with an owner/GM situation where we don't pay for major free agents anymore? Of that list, DJL, Chapman, Didi, and Britton were all on the team already when entering free agency. Is Cashman suffering from Ellsbury whiplash? Do we really suck at free agency?

Maybe this is its own thread but are we actually no longer big players in free agency? Looking at that list, I'm pretty sure I didn't leave anyone off (above $10m), makes me pretty sure there's no way we get Story.
I'm as impatient as anybody with the Steinbrenners , but to be fair you need to consider Stanton when you look at how much they are spending. Technically not a free agent - but they took on almost $300mil when they traded for him. If it wasn't for Stanton falling in their laps and Miguel Andujar breaking out on '18 it's likely they would have opened the vault for Harper or Machado like everyone expected.
 

EvilEmpire

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Yeah, I don't think Correa was the player to put the Yankees over the top. I don't think there is such a player, though rotation help would be nice.

The Yankees upgraded the offense at 3B, upgraded the defense at SS and C, and kept some left-handed balance in the lineup at 1B. Pretty good off season so far. If Brian can do all that and help lock down a great international signing, awesome.

But another quality arm would be nice. TIA Mr. Cashman.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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We'll see in five or ten years, I guess. Spending big money backfires as often as it pays off in baseball, though, people seem to forget this every winter. Josh Donaldson was a sexy FA signing two winters ago, now MIN gave him away even though he is still really good and has just two years left.
Waiting 5 to 10 years is the problem, though. I like my teams to win championships now, not hope that we strike gold on a 17-year-old shortstop.

And while I hope Donaldson hits 40 homers and wins a gold glove, he is also 36 which in current baseball is ancient.
 

jon abbey

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When Boston originally hired Theo Epstein, he said something like our goal is to win 95 games every year and get into the playoffs and give ourselves a chance (I can’t find the exact quote).

This I think is along the lines of what Cashman is trying to do right now, compete as best he can in a ridiculously loaded division while trying to hold onto the short-term future (Peraza, all the young pitching) as well as the long-term future (Volpe, Dominguez, Arias, Mayea). People can disagree with this prioritizing but they are typically doing so while not grasping the overall picture IMO.
 

Murderer's Crow

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When Boston originally hired Theo Epstein, he said something like our goal is to win 95 games every year and get into the playoffs and give ourselves a chance (I can’t find the exact quote).

This I think is along the lines of what Cashman is trying to do right now, compete as best he can in a ridiculously loaded division while trying to hold onto the short-term future (Peraza, all the young pitching) as well as the long-term future (Volpe, Dominguez, Arias, Mayea). People can disagree with this prioritizing but they are typically doing so while not grasping the overall picture IMO.
I think most of us are grasping the overall picture, but this offseason it's a lot easier to poke at and disagree with the approach the FO has taken. The overall picture isn't that complex, continously load the system, trade mid-tier prospects for impact players when possible, only sign must-have free agents, and bring back players who are successful with the organization and agree with its philosophy. An oiled machine like that doesn't need to have the highest payroll. The problem is that the moves made so far indicate greater priority for payroll flexibility and tax thresholds than they do for getting the best players available. Nobody is arguing the moves Cashman made don't suit the roster well and leave the door open to more improvements, what they're arguing is that we don't have the best team we could have because of both payroll considerations and prospect hugging. And you can't completely disagree here just because you like the move. You were the very first person to say you wanted Olson before there were rumors way back in November. Then you wanted Freeman, then Story, now Montas... If we don't get Montas, are we going to say "this was a great offseason anyway?" I guess you could. It doesn't change what could have been.
 

jon abbey

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Nobody is arguing the moves Cashman made don't suit the roster well and leave the door open to more improvements, what they're arguing is that we don't have the best team we could have because of both payroll considerations and prospect hugging.
Which I think ignores the realities of the CBA as well as the sport. A few years ago the big Yankee fan complaint was 'why can't we get guys like Soto or Tatis or Vlad Jr?'. Well, that's what Cashman is trying to do now.
 

jon abbey

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You were the very first person to say you wanted Olson before there were rumors way back in November. Then you wanted Freeman, then Story, now Montas... If we don't get Montas, are we going to say "this was a great offseason anyway?" I guess you could. It doesn't change what could have been.
Also I only know so much of what is possible, I think Olson and the A's both much preferred him to go to ATL over NY (the optics of Olson going to NY are really similar to when Giambi did the same thing), Freeman I don't think was ever possible unless NY paid him decidedly more than LAD ended up, Story I wanted on a 1 year deal, not a 6 (or 4) year deal.
 

jon abbey

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And I'm not saying this was a great offseason, but I am saying I like the current team a lot and I love that they have been able to hold onto their prospects (for now).
 

ThePrideofShiner

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I think part of the frustration is that we were told the last few years were all about resetting the luxury tax to make a big splash this offseason. And then instead of making a big splash, Hal is out here talking about shareholders that he answers to and crying poor because of COVID.

Anyway, none of this kvetching changes anything. They are still a very talented team, but a whole lot has to break right for them to live up to their potential.
 

cromulence

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Were we told that? Or were people assuming that? And to be clear, what exactly do you wish they had done with the money? And the answer shouldn't be sign Correa to the same deal he ended up getting. I don't think that was ever going to happen for the Yankees.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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Were we told that? Or were people assuming that? And to be clear, what exactly do you wish they had done with the money? And the answer shouldn't be sign Correa to the same deal he ended up getting. I don't think that was ever going to happen for the Yankees.
I would have liked to sign Corey Seager to whatever deal was necessary. A left-handed bat to balance the offense and an elite one at that.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Well, if we were assuming that, it's a much healthier assumption than the alternative, which is that the Yankees were being cheap as hell staying under $210m knowing full well this year they would be forced to go over. No Yankees fans should have to watch Andrew Heaney and Rougned Odor.
 

jon abbey

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I would have liked to sign Corey Seager to whatever deal was necessary. A left-handed bat to balance the offense and an elite one at that.
This would have been a horrendous signing IMO, he is already Gleyber-level defensively at SS. He would have been a 3B by next season, I do not think that deal will look good in retrospect.
 

cromulence

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Honestly, when you say they're cheap as hell, it's hard to take you seriously. You just sound like an Entitled Yankee fan. The payroll is pretty big, all things considered.
 

jon abbey

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I think part of the frustration is that we were told the last few years were all about resetting the luxury tax to make a big splash this offseason.
But who told us this? Media and fans, most of whom never seem to grasp what is actually going on, not the team.

Also as I said before, I do think they planned to make a big splash at SS, but then Volpe and Peraza both developed into potential stars, so plans change.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Honestly, when you say they're cheap as hell, it's hard to take you seriously. You just sound like an Entitled Yankee fan. The payroll is pretty big, all things considered.
I don't want to make this circular. I feel like I've laid out a fairly non-controversial point of view of the front office. I agree with and fanboy Cashman moves pretty much every year. I think he always does well in trades and never makes regrettable moves. It is very reasonable to call into question the spending caps of the front office in hindsight if you operate on the assumption that 1) Hal is willing to go over the CBT and 2) Sometimes chooses not to for the betterment of the future of the franchise. The problem with point 2 is that I personally cannot see the line drawn from staying under last year to staying out of the FA pool this year. And I think Jon does a pretty good job articulating what the benefits are of being under each of the thresholds and how the down stream effects lead to a worse pool of prospects and potential stars. Still, call it entitlement if you want, but I still think this front office is a bit too patient and this year way too careful.
 

jon abbey

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The funny thing to me is that all the Veruca Salt soundalike fans ('I want it now!') would be the first ones to complain if NY truly went for it and then sucked for a few years because they had mortgaged the future.

The only essential FA signing in recent years was Cole, NY had to get him because he is unique and that was the only way they were going to get an ace on that level for years. They did get him and he is taking a huge chunk of their payroll (Donaldson plus DJ=Cole in terms of annual salaries) but sometimes that is the way to go. It is generally the way to go only if you are forced to.
 

jon abbey

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I don't want to make this circular. I feel like I've laid out a fairly non-controversial point of view of the front office. I agree with and fanboy Cashman moves pretty much every year. I think he always does well in trades and never makes regrettable moves. It is very reasonable to call into question the spending caps of the front office in hindsight if you operate on the assumption that 1) Hal is willing to go over the CBT and 2) Sometimes chooses not to for the betterment of the future of the franchise. The problem with point 2 is that I personally cannot see the line drawn from staying under last year to staying out of the FA pool this year. And I think Jon does a pretty good job articulating what the benefits are of being under each of the thresholds and how the down stream effects lead to a worse pool of prospects and potential stars. Call it entitlement if you want, but I still think this front office is a bit too patient.
One horrendous move Cashman made which I have not seen second guessed ever was extending Britton rather then letting him hit the market. Even if Britton had stayed healthy and good, it's not a great use of $14M when you know you are going to have a payroll cap and you churn out solid relievers from your system constantly.
 

jon abbey

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And I do really really want Castillo or Montas (not Manaea) but also I am somewhat scared of the cost. Last year's Taillon deal (Jan 2021) already looks like it could backfire, with Taillon around for just one more year and Roansy Contreras turning into one of the best pitching prospects in baseball (not unexpectedly).
 

Murderer's Crow

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The funny thing to me is that all the Veruca Salt soundalike fans ('I want it now!') would be the first ones to complain if NY truly went for it and then sucked for a few years because they had mortgaged the future.

The only essential FA signing in recent years was Cole, NY had to get him because he is unique and that was the only way they were going to get an ace on that level for years. They did get him and he is taking a huge chunk of their payroll (Donaldson plus DJ=Cole in terms of annual salaries) but sometimes that is the way to go. It is generally the way to go only if you are forced to.
Well, fans are almost ready to turn on Cole too, but they certainly aren't blaming Cashman for it. My friends are in "forgive but don't forget" status on Cole at the moment and still greatly worried about the sticky stuff stuff. Worth noting that Chapman is in the same camp.
 

jon abbey

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Well, fans are almost ready to turn on Cole too, but they certainly aren't blaming Cashman for it. My friends are in "forgive but don't forget" status on Cole at the moment and still greatly worried about the sticky stuff stuff. Worth noting that Chapman is in the same camp.
Cole was great after regrouping from the sticky stuff crackdown, including that insane 129 pitch complete game shutout in HOU that my sig comes from (2.34 ERA in 8 starts from July 10-Sept 1). Then he pulled his hamstring and tried to pitch through it because NY needed him and he was not himself. I wouldn't worry about him.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Cole was great after regrouping from the sticky stuff crackdown, including that insane game in HOU that my sig comes from (2.34 ERA in 8 starts from July 10-Sept 1). Then he pulled his hamstring and tried to pitch through it because NY needed him and he was not himself. I wouldn't worry about him.
Oh I agree, but I would bet my left foot that if he struggles, everyone on the radio will tie it back to sticky stuff.
 

EvilEmpire

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Is Judge going to get extended at some point? When do we think that will happen?

I think Brian needs to spend some money fast to get the sports radio call in types to back off. :p
 

jon abbey

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Oh I agree, but I would bet my left foot that if he struggles, everyone on the radio will tie it back to sticky stuff.
Yep, back to my point that most people following the Yankees are entitled and clueless and should go root for the Dodgers or maybe the Globetrotters.
 

jon abbey

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Is Judge going to get extended at some point? When do we think that will happen?

I think Brian needs to spend some money fast to get the sports radio call in types to back off. :p
I think this is moving up the priority list, but he may want more than NY feels comfortable with. I think NY would happily give him something like 6/150 (off the top of my head) but if he wants $250M+, that might be a tough match.
 

jon abbey

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Also if you take a step back, Cashman added Gallo, Rizzo and Donaldson since the end of July, that’s a lot of potential impact, and that’s ignoring defensive upgrades at SS and C.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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I think this is moving up the priority list, but he may want more than NY feels comfortable with. I think NY would happily give him something like 6/150 (off the top of my head) but if he wants $250M+, that might be a tough match.
Something in between. As an excellent but slightly injury prone 30 yo OF, maybe 7/$210? He’s gonna want more than Springer got. Maybe they settle at 6/$180 with some player options…

To the bigger overall picture, I agree with Sox fans who welcome a Yankee approach that seemingly tries to balance short v long term pay offs. The days of buying all the best FAs, of getting Mussina or El Duque, of signing Sabathia, Teixeira, AND Burnett… are gone.

That might be a good thing, a way of avoiding the directionless, free-spending abyss of the early 80s. But maybe you don’t spend into 2009, either. Maybe you’re just a consistently good-not-great team with a relatively high payroll that competes but falls short every year.

As a Sox fan, if you take that latter route, I’m good with it! You don’t get Correa at SS, but settle for IFK. You don’t have a player who can hit at C. You don’t outbid us for Story. (And this doesn’t get to sitting out on Gausman or Ray.) All fine by me!
 
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EvilEmpire

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A consistently good team that routinely makes the playoffs is fine by me too. If they keep giving themselves playoff opportunities, they'll break through again. With a little better injury luck, probably sooner rather than later.
 

jon abbey

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Something in between. As an excellent but slightly injury prone 30 yo OF, maybe 7/$210? He’s gonna want more than Springer got. Maybe they settle at 6/$180 with some player options…

To the bigger overall picture, I agree with Sox fans who welcome a Yankee approach that seemingly tries to balance short v long term pay offs. The days of buying all the best FAs, of getting Mussina or El Duque, of signing Sabathia, Teixeira, AND Burnett… are gone.

That might be a good thing, a way of avoiding the directionless, free-spending abyss of the early 80s. But maybe you don’t spend into 2009, either. Maybe you’re just a consistently good-not-great team with a relatively high payroll that competes but falls short every year.

As a Sox fan, if you take that latter route, I’m good with it! You don’t get Correa at SS, but settle for IFK. You don’t have a player who can hit at C. You don’t outbid us for Story. (And this doesn’t get to sitting out on Gausman or Ray.) All fine by me!
Yep, that's all fair. I don't think a team can realistically spend like the Mets currently are under the current CBA and not have it blow up on them big time, but we'll see.