2021-2022 Yankees Offseason Discussion

jon abbey

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Justin Lange was a 2020 draft pick, 20 years old and Fangraphs has him as SD's #6 prospect, nice pickup.
 

jon abbey

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Lange is a year and a half younger than Jack Leiter, for instance.
 

jon abbey

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NY payroll back to around $246M, plenty of room for a SP still.
 

jon abbey

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The 2020 draft is the one where NY lost a second rounder for signing Cole, this retroactively replaces that with a higher pick (NY's second rounder would have been around #58, Lange was #34).
 

ThePrideofShiner

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Addition by subtraction. Voit didn't handle the Rizzo trade well, was very public about it and now he's gone. I wish you better health luck in the future, Luke.
 

jon abbey

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Combining this deal, the MIN deal and the Rizzo signing:

Gio, Voit and Sanchez will make about $21M this year, Donaldson, Rizzo, and Rortvedt about $40M. Gio and Voit will both make more in 2023 than 2022 as they are still arb-eligible, Sanchez is a pending FA.

NY upgrades at 3 positions (depending what you think of C), also adds their currently starting SS in IKF and the #34 pick from 2020 in Lange.
 

axx

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Seems like a nice get for Cashman.
I was wondering why SD was giving up on their first round pick so soon... and he was drafted in the 2020 year. I imagine he's not the only one who got effed over by the minor league shutdown and now has to compete with two additional draft classes of players.
 

jon abbey

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I was wondering why SD was giving up on their first round pick so soon... and he was drafted in the 2020 year. I imagine he's not the only one who got effed over by the minor league shutdown and now has to compete with two additional draft classes of players.
Also he is a long-term project and SD are trying to compete now, their top four SPs are all scheduled to hit FA after 2022 or 2023.
 

jon abbey

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Hasn't this account been discredited a few times? They kept posting a number of FA rumors that never seemed to pan out.

Edit: Rather - I should say I haven't seen them credited with any stories?
So do the main writer accounts, they seem to float as logical rumors/info as anyone else. They supposedly had Garver to TEX before anyone, but I don't really care about that. If you post something that makes sense to me and I look at your previous tweets and they're not ridiculous, I don't especially care if you're a well known source or not.
 

jon abbey

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But why does this non-check get credibility is my question? I see a few of us follow the account, but have they broken anything?
I answered that in my edit above, but again I don't think it matters. It's just a rumor, feel free to ignore it if you want, most of them don't pan out no matter who is posting them on Twitter.
 

jon abbey

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It's I think worth noting as far as the Lange acquisition that 18 months later, NY seems to have had the 2020 draft scouted extremely well. They only had 3 picks in the shortened five round draft, they lost a 2nd and a 5th with the Cole signing. But they seem to have hit on all three of those guys (Wells, Hauver, Beck Way) plus Elijah Dunham as a UDFA who looks very promising too, and now they add Lange with very little pro record so far since being picked out of HS.
 

EvilEmpire

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JA, you follow the front office/coaching/scouting stuff closer than anyone. Did they Yankees make big changes in the scouting department along with some of the other coaching and analytics stuff we heard about?

If so, I'm wondering, were those changes were in place before the 2020 draft? Obviously one draft doesn't mean anything, but I'd love to have even the slightest indicator that those organizational changes might already be bearing fruit.
 

jon abbey

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They drafted Volpe at #30 in the first round in 2019 (a much derided pick at the time) so it has been at least that long, but I don't know the specifics. I think Cashman has mostly cleaned house in almost every way over the past few years though, he lost some people to Miami and elsewhere but even more than that, he has brought in a lot of new and very young people, also lots of restructuring to try to keep up with the other top organizations.
 

jon abbey

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Also NY threw a ton of money into in-person scouting before Covid, that seems like it will finally mostly be back this year but they lost a few years of info in 2020/21, normally an advantage for them.
 

Murderer's Crow

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This gets brought up very often in the Yankeesverse and I suppose we never even consider it much here on SOSH but what would it take for Cashman to lose his role as GM? By all measures except WS titles, Cashman has done an incredible job as the Yankees GM. Unfortunately, fans have been and are growing more impatient with their expectations each season. I'm slowly moving in that direction also. I would love to see a WS and there's no reason a team who spends this kind of money on the payroll, player development, and analytics can't figure it out.

This offseason is more noteworthy than any others because of a fantastic free agent class which we have mostly not taken part of. The Yankees haven't signed any premium free agents and have opted to fill their roster via somewhat underwhelming trades while still winding up with a payroll that will very likely wind up exceeding $250m.

For the team with the biggest reputation for spending, here are the biggest free agent contracts of the last 5 years.

Cole 9/324
DJL 6/90
Chapman 5/86
Britton 3/39
Rizzo 2/32
Paxton 1/12.5
Didi 1/11.5
Kluber 1/11

Cole was just about as big of a slam dunk as possible and aces that young never make free agency. So, are we dealing with an owner/GM situation where we don't pay for major free agents anymore? Of that list, DJL, Chapman, Didi, and Britton were all on the team already when entering free agency. Is Cashman suffering from Ellsbury whiplash? Do we really suck at free agency?

Maybe this is its own thread but are we actually no longer big players in free agency? Looking at that list, I'm pretty sure I didn't leave anyone off (above $10m), makes me pretty sure there's no way we get Story.
 

Murderer's Crow

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and for the record, I acknowledge you need fewer free agents when you fill your roster with the farm that he has helped to build. But, there's been lotsa holes and there still are.
 

EvilEmpire

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I don't equate signing big name free agents on long contracts with success. I think the Yankees are very competitive most years, injury depending, and the playoffs are a crapshoot.

Roster flexibility is underrated.
 

Murderer's Crow

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I don't equate signing big name free agents on long contracts with success. I think the Yankees are very competitive most years, injury depending, and the playoffs are a crapshoot.

Roster flexibility is underrated.
But that wasn't really what I said. It's both an observation that we aren't greatly participating in the premium free agency pools and that we also aren't making it deep into the playoffs with any sort of consistency and it's starting to drive fans crazy.
 

EvilEmpire

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You specifically mentioned that they haven't signed any premium FAs and have made somewhat underwhelming trades instead.

Based on that and other posts you've made recently, it sure sounds like you are linking a lack of premium free agents and short playoff runs.
 

jon abbey

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I was going to start a thread like this but I don't need another way to procrastinate doing my taxes, so I will do it after that. In the meantime, a few quick things:

1) It's possible that NY couldn't sign QO FAs and/or go over the third tax level without jeopardizing their commitment to the top IFAs they have signed in recent years. Dominguez, Arias, and Mayea in Jan 2023 are by almost every rating system the top three overall players in the past 4 IFA classes, and NY has landed the first two and seem like they are locked in on Mayea too (yes, this is a great argument for an international draft but that's a different discussion). The one year they did not sign the top IFA guy in the class? The year they signed Cole to a massive deal.

2) I have said it before, but I have long thought that winning makes a fan base dumber, we all know the Yankees' history (yes, very few WS rings in recent decades) and they haven't finished below .500 since 1992, 29 years and counting. The Yankee fan base is stunningly dumb, I am always surprised when I come across even one person who isn't.
 

jon abbey

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Yankee fans collectively whining: 'Why can''t we get young studs like Soto and Vlad Jr and Tatis Jr? What's wrong with Cashman?"

Cashman: makes it a priority over the course of years to do his best to do just that.

Yankee fans collectively whining: "What's wrong with Cashman? Why doesn't he sign exactly the guys I want him to?"
 

jon abbey

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If the question is "is NY out of signing big FAs with QOs attached and/or going over the third tax limit in those years?", the answer might be yes, but those are just the rules, not a money thing, but a choice to stockpile potential franchise teenagers and hope that one or more pay off.
 

Murderer's Crow

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You specifically mentioned that they haven't signed any premium FAs and have made somewhat underwhelming trades instead.

Based on that and other posts you've made recently, it sure sounds like you are linking a lack of premium free agents and short playoff runs.
I'm asking the question of 1) Is there a link and 2) Are we, as a team, no longer interested in paying for premium talent. Tangentially, there is of course some linkage or argument to be made that spending money on the right players increases your odds.

I was going to start a thread like this but I don't need another way to procrastinate doing my taxes, so I will do it after that. In the meantime, a few quick things:

1) It's possible that NY couldn't sign QO FAs and/or go over the third tax level without jeopardizing their commitment to the top IFAs they have signed in recent years. Dominguez, Arias, and Mayea in Jan 2023 are by almost every rating system the top three overall players in the past 4 IFA classes, and NY has landed the first two and seem like they are locked in on Mayea too (yes, this is a great argument for an international draft but that's a different discussion). The one year they did not sign the top IFA guy in the class? The year they signed Cole to a massive deal.

2) I have said it before, but I have long thought that winning makes a fan base dumber, we all know the Yankees' history (yes, very few WS rings in recent decades) and they haven't finished below .500 since 1992, 29 years and counting. The Yankee fan base is stunningly dumb, I am always surprised when I come across even one person who isn't.
Yes. We are. I am. But that doesn't change the fact that the organization basically conditioned the fans to believe that there was always a great sense of urgency. Can't win? Take Clemens out of retirement! Can't win? Get Giambi, get Matsui, get Randy Johnson...etc. 2009 was the last one, and we won it with a shitload of free agent money. That sense of urgency feels greater from the fans than ownership at the moment.

The thought process on my end isn't that Hal and Cashman aren't doing a great job. I'm just, again, observing the last few years of free agency and this year's missed opportunities to this point.
 

jon abbey

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It would be amazing if a reporter directly asked Cashman if the team's behavior in the FA market the past two years is connected to their pursuit/signings of Arias and Mayea, but that will seemingly never happen, and it's possible Cashman couldn't answer honestly anyway.
 

jon abbey

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Yes. We are. I am. But that doesn't change the fact that the organization basically conditioned the fans to believe that there was always a great sense of urgency. Can't win? Take Clemens out of retirement! Can't win? Get Giambi, get Matsui, get Randy Johnson...etc. 2009 was the last one, and we won it with a shitload of free agent money. That sense of urgency feels greater from the fans than ownership at the moment.
Heh, you know I don't mean you, but those were under previous CBAs, the last 3 or 4 CBA have changed the rules for front offices a lot, and at the same time, younger players have become more important than before.
 

EvilEmpire

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I don't think the Yankees have a problem spending when there is a clear need with an equally clear FA answer. Cole was that guy.

I don't see the situation at SS that way with the Yankees having so much prospect depth.
They tried to get Freeman or Olson for 1B, but it didn't work out.