2021-2022 Bruins Season Thread

MiracleOfO2704

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The forward lines are starting to come together

Marchand - Bergeron - DeBrusk...71% xGF%
Hall - Haula - Pastrnak 57% xGF%
Frederic - Coyle - Smith 51% xGF%
Foligno - Nosek - Lazar 64% xGF%

Haula as 2C is scary. but it's been working and he has experience doing it in the past. The 3rd line has been vastly outperforming their underlying numbers (actual goals are 13-2) but nosing over 50% xGF% is a good sign. They are due for regression but have been playing much better the past few games. The 4th line is basically the opposite of the 3rd line. They have been very good but don't have the actual results (0-4 actual goals). They could use one going in for them. 64% xGF% is impressive given their usage and zone starts.

Still think I would give Studnicka a ride with Hall and Pasta before the end of the season in case Haula crumbles but little else to complain about.
I feel like that 4th line works best as a low-event line. They're not likely to score, but you're not likely to get a sniff at a scoring chance against them, either. Probably not a bad thing to be in the playoffs.
 

burstnbloom

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The forward lines are starting to come together

Marchand - Bergeron - DeBrusk...71% xGF%
Hall - Haula - Pastrnak 57% xGF%
Frederic - Coyle - Smith 51% xGF%
Foligno - Nosek - Lazar 64% xGF%

Haula as 2C is scary. but it's been working and he has experience doing it in the past. The 3rd line has been vastly outperforming their underlying numbers (actual goals are 13-2) but nosing over 50% xGF% is a good sign. They are due for regression but have been playing much better the past few games. The 4th line is basically the opposite of the 3rd line. They have been very good but don't have the actual results (0-4 actual goals). They could use one going in for them. 64% xGF% is impressive given their usage and zone starts.

Still think I would give Studnicka a ride with Hall and Pasta before the end of the season in case Haula crumbles but little else to complain about.

The second line does worry me but it's foolish to stick to a preconceived notion if the play is changing. They had a couple of tough games last week (<30% xG) but they've been great since the trade deadline. I think the worry with them is they were getting good results but poor underlying numbers and you either expect the good results to regress or the play to change. It seems like the play has changed. If they keep doing what they are doing, it's not an issue. Hall and Pasta are great possession players so if this is who they are now, I'm good with it.

Similar story with the third line as you said. I'd like to see the first line start to put some pucks behind the goalie. They've dominated possession but they haven't been scoring all that much.
 

durandal1707

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Lightning and Leafs won yesterday, so the Bs are back down in the WC1 spot for now due to fewer regulation wins than the Leafs (tied in points). The good news is that the Canes just destroyed the Caps tonight, so the Bruins are now up 3 points over the Caps with three games in hand. I expect a lot of bouncing around between A2, A3, and WC1 over the next month with Tampa, Toronto and Boston all trading places.

My pick for the team to avoid in the first round is Carolina. They seem pretty complete overall, having patched up their major weakness from yesteryear (goaltending).

Toronto has goaltending issues, and Tampa is 6th in the East in xGF% (52.4%, 10th overall), only above the Caps (50.1%, 15th overall) and the Rags (27th overall, lol). I'd say the best path is through the Atlantic bracket.
 

Zososoxfan

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Horton was great at using his size around the net as well. That really was a great all around line.

In hindsight, what a steal it was to get Horton for Dennis Wideman and the 1st round pick that ended up being Derek Forbort.
I remember the broadcasts during the Cup run highlighting Mark Recchi's net presence repeatedly as well. This goes well with the other post about how net presence is a skill and can be separable from "toughness", although I will say that I have no idea whether Recchi was considered a "tough" player or not. He certainly wasn't big!
 

GB5

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I think if the playoffs started today, it would be B's vs Carolina. The B's are certainly better with Lindholm and they have been better up front recently, but Carolina is a nightmare matchup. I think that would be a quick series, 5/6 games.
 

cshea

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I think if the playoffs started today, it would be B's vs Carolina. The B's are certainly better with Lindholm and they have been better up front recently, but Carolina is a nightmare matchup. I think that would be a quick series, 5/6 games.
It'd be FLA. Carolina has 1 more point than FLA but FLA has a game in hand. We'll see how it shakes out.

Personally, I don't really care. There's no obvious easy path here. They are going to play an extremely good team in round 1 regardless of where they finish. It's fun to joke at the Leafs expense but they are a really good team with awesome players. They're going to break through at some point. Campbell was Vezina caliber in the early part of the season, if he returns to some kind of form they will be formidable. Carolina has beaten us by a combined billion to one this season. Nothing needs to be said about Tampa. Florida is the new comer. They may be somewhat susceptible due to goaltending and potentially Ekblad's injury carrying into the first round, but that's still a wagon of a team with arguably the best forward group in hockey.

It's a pick your posion type situation.
 

burstnbloom

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I think Carolina is the hardest first round matchup but winning there provides the easiest second round matchup. If you beat the canes, your second round is against the Penguins or the Rangers. The Bruins are better than both of those teams. Then they'd only need to play 1 of the three atlantic teams to get to the cup final. In the end though, these teams are all pretty close in terms of quality. I think the Bruins are significantly better than the Rangers but I'm terrified of getting Shersterkined. So it doesn't really matter. I definitely WANT the leafs though. Beating them in the first round would be such a delight.
 

cshea

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They aren’t solving anything. He’s the 8th D, they know he is not good. They’re just trying to keep him in game shape.
 

cshea

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Thought this was an informative answer from Butch yesterday when asked about analytics. It's a good glimpse into how the coaching staff applies analytics.

View: https://twitter.com/ConorRyan_93/status/1509255492518002694?s=20&t=J6NuvCC4_VSYSsqN_OeTrw


The analytics team sends in pre-game information on the opponent. Bruce then takes that information and uses it in the pre-game meetings with the players when they talk about the game plan. It's up to Bruce and the staff to deliver the information to the players in a digestable format. If the microstats say the team is poor at defending zone entries, he would tell them this without actually delivering the specific numbers.

They also use a rolling 10-game data (he specifically mentioned expected goals; i'm sure there's a ton more they look at) and try to identify trends, good or bad, in comparison to the rest of the league. If there is something in the data that doesn't match up with what they're seeing, they try and sort it out and figure out the discrepancy.Also, the "good nerds" are always finding new columns of data to add to the reports he receives.
 

Zososoxfan

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Thought this was an informative answer from Butch yesterday when asked about analytics. It's a good glimpse into how the coaching staff applies analytics.

View: https://twitter.com/ConorRyan_93/status/1509255492518002694?s=20&t=J6NuvCC4_VSYSsqN_OeTrw


The analytics team sends in pre-game information on the opponent. Bruce then takes that information and uses it in the pre-game meetings with the players when they talk about the game plan. It's up to Bruce and the staff to deliver the information to the players in a digestable format. If the microstats say the team is poor at defending zone entries, he would tell them this without actually delivering the specific numbers.

They also use a rolling 10-game data (he specifically mentioned expected goals; i'm sure there's a ton more they look at) and try to identify trends, good or bad, in comparison to the rest of the league. If there is something in the data that doesn't match up with what they're seeing, they try and sort it out and figure out the discrepancy.Also, the "good nerds" are always finding new columns of data to add to the reports he receives.
Awesome info, thanks for posting. The bolded sounds a like a fuckton of work that has to get done on tight timelines--for both the analytics team and the coaches. Egads!
 

kenneycb

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Basically in line with his first two seasons, slightly better than his third season and much better than last season.

13 of those points have come over the last 17 games since he's been moved to the top line. Interestingly (to me at least), 11 of the 13 points have come in 6 games due to an 11 game 1g, 1a stretch in between his hat-trick against the Kings and the recent 3 game point streak.
 

cshea

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He's also shooting 24.4% in his last 19 games. That is quite a bit of puck luck.

In fairness, I thought he was outstanding last night.
 

Myt1

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He's also shooting 24.4% in his last 19 games. That is quite a bit of puck luck.

In fairness, I thought he was outstanding last night.
Absolutely crushing forecheck to set up a goal. That’s when you know he’s into it.
 

TSC

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As wonderful of an addition as Lindholm has been, not trading DeBrusk may end up being the (non) move of the deadline.

And whether it’s because he’s trying to increase his trade value, he’s finally playing with good players, or it’s finally just all clicked for him - he’s been an absolute MONSTER since the deadline.
 

PedroSpecialK

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Rough night for the 6'3 Peeke.
  • Gets bodied on a clean hit by a 5'9 player, leading to a goal against on his pinch
  • Revenge comes by way of a gloved shove, at the cost of a jab to the chin from DeBrusk of all people
  • Takes a bad penalty late in the game that the B's don't capitalize on
  • Is from Florida, is missing the playoffs, and overall kinda stinks
 

Jordu

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As wonderful of an addition as Lindholm has been, not trading DeBrusk may end up being the (non) move of the deadline.

And whether it’s because he’s trying to increase his trade value, he’s finally playing with good players, or it’s finally just all clicked for him - he’s been an absolute MONSTER since the deadline.
My guess is that two things got DeBrusk re-focused on his game and motivated to bring his best: getting put on the first line and learning he’d be spending the rest of the season and playoffs with Boston.

In the little he had to say to the press about his contract status the day after the trade deadline, he talked about the relief of knowing where he’d be living and playing the rest of the year. It must be much easier to focus on just hockey for him now.

DeBrusk has always played a complete game when he’s scoring and a mentally disengaged game when he’s not.

He’s not only been scoring since he got moved to the first line, he’s been playing a 200-foot game. His size and strength make him dangerous on the forecheck and his speed makes him lethal on the backcheck.

For whatever reason, he didn’t play that way last year and early this season. It’s great to see him playing up to his abilities now.
 

The Napkin

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right here
coming off a concussion and he freely talked about how much COVID and the isolation fucked with his head didn't help either
now he has some stability in linemates and the freedom to play without worrying about being in the dog house and he's back to his early career performance.
 

durandal1707

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I think another potential factor in why DeBrusk was so awful last year was anti-chemistry with Coyle. They're both streaky players and I have to wonder if that brought out the worst in both of them. Combining their With/Without numbers from last year with this year:

Coyle with DeBrusk: 46% xGF, 11-17 actual goals (39%)
Coyle without DeBrusk: 50% xGF, 48-51 actual goals (48%)
DeBrusk without Coyle: 58% xGF, 37-27 actual goals (58%)

Obviously playing with two Hall of Famers is gonna bump anyone's numbers up, but what stands out to me here is how awfully the Coyle+DeBrusk combo underperforms their already lackluster expected goals. Again, this makes me think that their play styles are just poorly suited for one another.
 

Myt1

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I think another potential factor in why DeBrusk was so awful last year was anti-chemistry with Coyle. They're both streaky players and I have to wonder if that brought out the worst in both of them. Combining their With/Without numbers from last year with this year:

Coyle with DeBrusk: 46% xGF, 11-17 actual goals (39%)
Coyle without DeBrusk: 50% xGF, 48-51 actual goals (48%)
DeBrusk without Coyle: 58% xGF, 37-27 actual goals (58%)

Obviously playing with two Hall of Famers is gonna bump anyone's numbers up, but what stands out to me here is how awfully the Coyle+DeBrusk combo underperforms their already lackluster expected goals. Again, this makes me think that their play styles are just poorly suited for one another.
Coyle’s an odd duck. Good possession numbers, strong as hell on the puck, but seems to have had a difficult time getting 3 different burner wingers (Hall and DeBrusk, maybe Pasta, though I can’t remember how much they actually played together) going offensively.
 

burstnbloom

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Coyle’s an odd duck. Good possession numbers, strong as hell on the puck, but seems to have had a difficult time getting 3 different burner wingers (Hall and DeBrusk, maybe Pasta, though I can’t remember how much they actually played together) going offensively.
He doesn't seem to have great vision as a facilitator. I think he works best when he's focused on keeping the puck in the zone and his linemates can cycle and pull the trigger. He's a unique player, that's for sure.

Dom put out his awards watch today:

https://theathletic.com/3230454/2022/04/05/nhl-awards-watch-auston-matthews-is-cementing-himself-as-the-hart-trophy-frontrunner/?source=twwitterhq

Ill respect the paywall, but I'm sharing the graphics. Chuck is his number 2 for Norris. I HIGHLY recommend the write up. Also anyone who doesn't vote Bergeron for the Selke should lose their vote.

50642

50643
 

Myt1

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He doesn't seem to have great vision as a facilitator. I think he works best when he's focused on keeping the puck in the zone and his linemates can cycle and pull the trigger. He's a unique player, that's for sure.
I think that’s a good way to put it.
 

joe dokes

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Someone help me out here, since I'm pretty weak on hockey analytics.
Lets talk Frobot. What numbers are there (if any) that support his playing? If I squint, I can see his potential effectiveness on the PP, because clearing the puck requires nothing other than blasting it 200 feet, rather then "making a play in his own d-zone," something he seems incapable of doing. I do not believe Cassidy is an idiot, so I think he must have a reason other than "large man." But nearly every time I see him at even strength it seems like there's a 1:30 run of play in the d-zone, or a play that needs an otherworldy save. Anyone?
 

cshea

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He's OK defensively. When he's on the ice, they have an xGA/60 of 2.14. That is the worst on the team but 17th in the NHL among 183 NHL defenseman with 600 minutes TOI this season. The system certainly plays a role, but he does OK defensively gtiven his usage and what they ask from him. He's also good on the penalty kill.

Transition and offense are horrible.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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He doesn't seem to have great vision as a facilitator. I think he works best when he's focused on keeping the puck in the zone and his linemates can cycle and pull the trigger. He's a unique player, that's for sure.

Dom put out his awards watch today:

https://theathletic.com/3230454/2022/04/05/nhl-awards-watch-auston-matthews-is-cementing-himself-as-the-hart-trophy-frontrunner/?source=twwitterhq

Ill respect the paywall, but I'm sharing the graphics. Chuck is his number 2 for Norris. I HIGHLY recommend the write up. Also anyone who doesn't vote Bergeron for the Selke should lose their vote.

View attachment 50642

View attachment 50643
How many times has Bergy been robbed of his trophy, analytically speaking? I mean, you probably could have made at least a decent case for him to win every year he has played a full season for the last decade or so, yes?
 

joe dokes

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He's OK defensively. When he's on the ice, they have an xGA/60 of 2.14. That is the worst on the team but 17th in the NHL among 183 NHL defenseman with 600 minutes TOI this season. The system certainly plays a role, but he does OK defensively gtiven his usage and what they ask from him. He's also good on the penalty kill.

Transition and offense are horrible.
Thanks. The "worst on the team" checks out, "but pretty good in the overall scheme of things" is what I've been missing, but probably drives the coaching decisions.
 

burstnbloom

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How many times has Bergy been robbed of his trophy, analytically speaking? I mean, you probably could have made at least a decent case for him to win every year he has played a full season for the last decade or so, yes?
He legitimately should have won every year since 2009. There are other good "2-way forward" seasons but from a data standpoint, they are always second to Bergeron. Couturier in 19/20 was awesome. Bergeron was better. Kopitar in 2017, awesome. Bergeron was better. If you allow for the times that other guys were close-ish, I'd put the number around 8 trophies he should have?

The problem is hockey writers are pretty lazy as a group. Last year, Mark Lazerus said the quiet part out loud with his "there are other 2 way forwards in the league." A large number of them don't take into account anything objective and it ruins the awards for me. Barkov won last year in a season where he was about league average defensively. That was pretty easy to look up last year in order to vote. Very few of them actually did that. I would actually be surprised if Bergeron wins this year. The pushback from the old guard on the overwhelming support from the analytics community will probably give Jonathan Toews another Selke.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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He legitimately should have won every year since 2009. There are other good "2-way forward" seasons but from a data standpoint, they are always second to Bergeron. Couturier in 19/20 was awesome. Bergeron was better. Kopitar in 2017, awesome. Bergeron was better. If you allow for the times that other guys were close-ish, I'd put the number around 8 trophies he should have?

The problem is hockey writers are pretty lazy as a group. Last year, Mark Lazerus said the quiet part out loud with his "there are other 2 way forwards in the league." A large number of them don't take into account anything objective and it ruins the awards for me. Barkov won last year in a season where he was about league average defensively. That was pretty easy to look up last year in order to vote. Very few of them actually did that. I would actually be surprised if Bergeron wins this year. The pushback from the old guard on the overwhelming support from the analytics community will probably give Jonathan Toews another Selke.
It's really fucking annoying especially because Bergeron is also an eye-test defensive god, universally loved and appreciated by friend and foe alike, AND a great offensive player to boot (the gold glove rule). If he doesn't get it, then I believe they don't want him to stand alone with 5 for some reason.
 

cshea

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The problem is there's no counting stat for defense that the lazy writers can easily digest. More than any other award (Norris too), you really need to understand some of the analytics, beyond corsi, to make an informed decision. A lot of writers don't put in the time or effort to understand them so it's eye test and reputation. Start talking xG and their heads explode.

Several have already expressed voter fatigue over Bergeron with the vaunted "there are more good two-way players..." line of thinking. He should win in a landslide but it is probably going to be close.
 

burstnbloom

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It's really fucking annoying especially because Bergeron is also an eye-test defensive god, universally loved and appreciated by friend and foe alike, AND a great offensive player to boot (the gold glove rule). If he doesn't get it, then I believe they don't want him to stand alone with 5 for some reason.
Ya, maybe. He'd have the most in history if he won again. Maybe that's an issue for some people.

There have been a number of snubs due to dumb hockey writers. For a three year span, Zdeno Chara was BY FAR the best D in the world. He won a single trophy. He came in 8th in 2009-2010 when he was, by far, the best defender in the NHL. It's all a sham.
 

Dropkick Izzy

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It's really fucking annoying especially because Bergeron is also an eye-test defensive god, universally loved and appreciated by friend and foe alike, AND a great offensive player to boot (the gold glove rule). If he doesn't get it, then I believe they don't want him to stand alone with 5 for some reason.
 

cshea

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Frederic has entered the doghouse, and the lines have entered the blender a tad. It appears that McLaughlin is going to get a look as 4C tonight. Froden was 2RW yesterday.

Marchand - Bergeron - DeBrusk
Hall - Haula - Froden
Nosek - Coyle - Smith
Foligno - McLaughlin - Lazar

Reilly/Grz - McAvoy
Forbort - Clifton
Ahcan - Brown

Butch said they were "cautiously optimistic" on Grz's availability tongiht. Personally, I'd hold anyone with the slightest ding out. There's nothing to be gained by pushing for a higher seed.

I'm curious to see what the short term future holds for McLaughlin. The book on him coming out of BC was he could shoot and thus far he's been as advertised. It'll be interesting to see how he handles a 4th line role. He's going to get tough minutes against tough competition (well, maybe not with Ottawa). Can he handle it, particularly defensively? The most recent iteration of the 4th line, 17-92-20, has really solid underlying numbers but are absolutely dreadful at putting the puck in the net, only 2 GF in 143 minutes. Maybe McLaughlin can provide some of that finishing that they've been unable to get from that line. Of course, I suspect Nosek was a big reason that line worked and we'll see if McLaughlin can have the same kind of defensive impact and help get the puck out of the defensive zone and into the o zone.
 

kenneycb

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Grain of salt given the source and all but a kid on my men's league team was at a rehab place with Lindholm and Pasta. He said that Lindholm was dealing with a sprained MCL and Pasta had a side injury, so either a rib or oblique. If true, imagine those would be more pain management than full recovery injuries.
 

j44thor

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What is the story with Studnicka, no longer eligible to be called up, injured or has the org given up on him? One of the few skaters that can actually keep up with Hall. Hall seems to be rather ineffective when he is with plodders. Don't know much about Frodden's game but can't imagine he is a better skater than Studnicka.
 

Salem's Lot

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What is the story with Studnicka, no longer eligible to be called up, injured or has the org given up on him? One of the few skaters that can actually keep up with Hall. Hall seems to be rather ineffective when he is with plodders. Don't know much about Frodden's game but can't imagine he is a better skater than Studnicka.
I believe that they see him as a center, and would rather that he develop at that position in the AHL than play wing in the NHL.
 

FullaPoloni

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I believe that they see him as a center, and would rather that he develop at that position in the AHL than play wing in the NHL.
It doesn't appear that they sent him down as he hasn't been in the lineup for Providence since his last callup. And Providence has been decimated at center of late
 

Salem's Lot

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It doesn't appear that they sent him down as he hasn't been in the lineup for Providence since his last callup. And Providence has been decimated at center of late
My apologies, I thought he was back down in the AHL. I do believe that they want him playing center exclusively, and they haven’t given up on him.
 

cshea

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Studnicka has been with the team since he was called up on 3/18 when Bergy had the infection issue. He has primarily been a healthy scratch since Bergy got back, but did play in the 4/5 game against Detroit. When they were healthy, he'd practice on a 5th line with Blidh and McLaughlin. The forwards have been pretty healthy with just Pastrnak's injury since so there hasn't been much of an opportunity for Studnicka

I think tonight's lineup is more about them wanting to get a look at McLaughlin as a bottom 6 center. They have information on Studnicka, they have none on McLaughlin. They could probably run Studnicka out as a RW, but Froden's played well in Providence and is a natural RW. If the injury bug hits in the playoffs, my susiscion is that they would put Studnicka in if one of Bergy/Haula/Coyle go down. If wingers drop, Froden is probably ahead of Studnicka (McLaughlin, Blidh, Froden).