2021-2022 Bruins Season Thread

LogansDad

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Marchand is happy for Bergeron (who would have thought?):

Marchand, who many believed would be named an All-Star as the NHL's seventh leading scorer, said he was "not bothered at all" by the omission and understands that given the format of every team needing to be represented that some players would be left out.
"I almost feel like I've seen it all and then you remember how long he's been doing this and how dominant he still is," said Marchand. "I guess when you kind of look at it in that sense, it's even more impressive…to be able to put your body on the line the way that he does every night and to compete the way that he does every night - there's a lot of guys that can play a long time in this league but they don't play necessarily as hard, they kind of stay out of the dirty areas, and don't compete and don't block shots and battle the way that Bergy does.

"The way that he uses his body and beats his body up for the last 20 years, I think those are the guys that you really get impressed with and he still continues to do it every night, he leads every night. He's always the hardest working guy on the ice. When you see that out of your captain and your best player, your leader, you're in awe of that all the time."
I wish my wife loved me as much as he loves Bergy.
 

cshea

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Probably 50/50 Kuhlman gets claimed. He’s not good but he’s very cheap and someone may need a body to cover for Covid,

Bit of an F crunch coming. Kuhlman is gone because Foligno is due back soon and they need a roster spot. Next pressure point is when Frederic returns.
 

durandal1707

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Steen has been a revelation for the bottom 6. I know individual 5v5 xGF% is not a great metric, but his 66.6% is right behind Bergeron (68.1%) with 109 minutes of ice-time. He's doing this despite a relatively modest 55% oZone starts:

5.27 to 2.64 expected goals
5 to 1 actual goals
56% Corsi
56 to 35 scoring chances
21 to 11 high danger chances
 

The Napkin

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schedule updates

View: https://twitter.com/NHLBruins/status/1483899873787359232

BOSTON - The National Hockey League announced today, January 19, dates for the Boston Bruins re-scheduled games:

Tuesday, February 8: Boston Bruins vs. Pittsburgh Penguins, 7 p.m. (NESN, 98.5 The Sports Hub) (was Dec 12)
Thursday, February 10: Boston Bruins vs. Carolina Hurricanes, 7 p.m. (NESN, 98.5 The Sports Hub) (was Dec 21)
Saturday, February 12: Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators, 12:30 p.m. (NESN, 98.5 The Sports Hub) (was Dec 29)
Tuesday, February 15: Boston Bruins at N.Y. Rangers, 7 p.m. (NESN, 98.5 The Sports Hub) (was Apr 24)
Thursday, February 17: Boston Bruins at N.Y. Islanders, 7:30 p.m. (NESN, 98.5 The Sports Hub) (was Mar 22)
Saturday, February 19: Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators, 7 p.m. (NESN, 98.5 The Sports Hub) (was Dec 19)
Monday, February 21: Boston Bruins vs. Colorado Avalanche, 1 p.m. (NESN, 98.5 The Sports Hub) (was Dec 23)
Monday, March 21: Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens, 7 p.m. (NESN, 98.5 The Sports Hub) (was Jan 12)
Sunday, April 24: Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens, 7 p.m. (NESN, 98.5 The Sports Hub) (was Dec 18)
 

RedOctober3829

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NHL announced the schedule revisions

February 8th vs Pittsburgh 7:00(rescheduled from 12/27)
February 10th vs. Carolina 7:00(rescheduled from 12/21)
February 12th at Ottawa 12:30(rescheduled from 12/29)
February 15th at NYR 7:00(rescheduled from 4/24)
February 17th at NYI 7:30(rescheduled from 3/22)
February 19th at Ottawa 7:00(rescheduled from 12/19)
February 21st vs. Colorado 1:00(rescheduled from 12/23)
March 21st at Montreal 7:00(rescheduled from 1/12)
April 24th at Montreal 7:00(rescheduled from 12/18)
 

TSC

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Claude Giroux may be on the trading block, and this article mentions the Bruins as a team needing depth at center (duh.)

https://thehockeynews.com/news/what-will-floundering-flyers-do-with-claude-giroux?fbclid=IwAR0vTtOhASFqht-kUF74WToeBT2xc4e7AqULWDqRgzfT5zWHYFEzUbQ_yUg

So the question: Should the Bruins be interested in Giroux were he available?

He only has one year remaining on his deal - so likely he is 100% a rental. His cap hit this year is 8.275 - so the Bruins would need to send out some value (and possibly force Philly to retain some money) were it to work.

I guess it depends on if the Bruins are actually a contender this year. Bringing back Rask (even for 1 million) feels like a move a team that considers themself a contender would do. Does Sweeney et al think this team is 1 to 2 pieces away from serious contention?

He certainly would improve this team drastically - especially if the top two lines become:

Marchand/Bergeron/Smith
Hall/Giroux/Pastrnak

What would Philly be after? Who knows. Carter Hart is showing some major cracks in the armor. Is Swayman someone they'd consider? Could this be the DeBrusk landing spot? They do have a need for a true RW with only Atkinson and Konecny on the roster.

I don't know. I guess it depends on where you think this team is, and what takes them to the next level.
 

durandal1707

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Claude Giroux may be on the trading block, and this article mentions the Bruins as a team needing depth at center (duh.)

...

I don't know. I guess it depends on where you think this team is, and what takes them to the next level.
I'm going to stand by what I've said in the past: that the addition of one player is not going to put this team over the top. That having been said, a 2nd line of Hall-Giroux-Pastrnak would get them pretty close. I think they still have a fatal lack of depth on defense that is going to be exposed in the playoffs, however. They still need a genuine top pairing LHD. I'm also not convinced that the bottom 6 forwards are a truly reliable group of players - they've been incredibly streaky in the past.

I'm also very uncomfortable trading Swayman. Sure, I'm hesitant to say that he's "established" himself as a NHL level yet - he still hasn't quite hit the threshold that many promising young goaltenders hit before a potential collapse (Carter Hart is the ur-example at the moment). But so far he's a good NHL goalie with elite upside, and this franchise has mortgaged so much of its future already. I think a rebuild is inevitable for this team once Bergeron hangs 'em up, and having a good goaltender already in place when that process starts would be invaluable.

Also I really don't see this team having the assets to get this deal done (they can be outbid pretty easily), and cap space is a major problem. If I'm Philly, I would gun for at least a 1st and a decent prospect (Vaak?) to start, and sure, maybe I see if a change of scenery gets DeBrusk going again. Trading DeBrusk would clear $3.675m, so there would still need to clear something close to $3m (if I'm reading CapFriendly right.) If you can somehow get the Flyers to take Forbort (and for Forbort's modified NTC to allow going to Philly) or Moore you're close. If Philly is trading Giroux I would figure they would be starting a rebuild and probably not wanting to take on that much money for a 3rd pairing dman though.
 

cshea

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Also I really don't see this team having the assets to get this deal done (they can be outbid pretty easily), and cap space is a major problem. If I'm Philly, I would gun for at least a 1st and a decent prospect (Vaak?) to start, and sure, maybe I see if a change of scenery gets DeBrusk going again. Trading DeBrusk would clear $3.675m, so there would still need to clear something close to $3m (if I'm reading CapFriendly right.) If you can somehow get the Flyers to take Forbort (and for Forbort's modified NTC to allow going to Philly) or Moore you're close. If Philly is trading Giroux I would figure they would be starting a rebuild and probably not wanting to take on that much money for a 3rd pairing dman though.
I don't think he'll cost that much. Giroux is a pending UFA, has a full no-move and carries a $8.275 million cap hit. The cap is a problem for everyone, not just Boston. I think he'd cost a 1st and maybe a mid-teir prospect but not much more than that. That's kind of the going rate for high-end rentals. I can't remember the last time a rental went for something like a 1st, top prospect, roster player.

I also don't think we have to worry about including Swayman. Hart had a rough year last season but has bounced back and is playing well. The .911 save percentage doesn't stand out as anything great but the Flyers are horrific defensively. They give up the 3rd most scoring chances against per 60 and the most high danger chances against per 60 so he's holding his own while getting peppered with more quality shots against than any other goalie in the league.

I'd be interested. I kind of go back and forth. Pre-break I leaned towards holding pattern and riding it out. 8-2-0 since then, so now I'm leaning more towards going all-in. This is probably it for Rask and Bergy's future is unclear. If they continue to play well, shove it in.
 

Zososoxfan

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I agree the D is a problem that will hold the club back from going deep in the postseason, but man having 2 bona fide top lines like that would be sweet. Matchup nightmare that would prevent even some of the best teams in the league from neutralizing both--a problem we've seen in previous postseason runs. GIDDYUP!, especially if JDB is part of the package--that seems like a good landing spot for him if Philly is interested.
 

cshea

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I don't think DeBrusk would be of much interest to Philly. Their wingers are mostly good and signed through next season. Farabee, JVR and Lindblom at LW, Atkinson and Konecny at RW. I don't think Jake at $3.675 plus the qualifying offer would be of much interest to them.

I think the Flyers would be looking at futures and defensive help. They traded their first last year, a 2nd this year and 2nd next year (2023) in the Ristolainen and Ghostisbhere deals. They'd probably want to recoup some of that. Also, as I mentioned with Hart, their defense is abysmal. They only have Provorov, Ellis (injured), Sanheim and Cam York under contract for next season so if they were looking for players, it's likely on the back end. The Bruins don't really have a ton to offer on that front. Obviously not trading McAvoy, Grzelyck or Carlo. Forbort stinks and has a no-move. Moore is injured and has a bad contract. That leaves Reilly, Clifton and Vaakanainen. I don't think the Bruins can afford to trade Reilly. Clifton or Vaakanainen may make some sense depending on their level of play. Going into next season, they don't really have room for Clifton, Vaak and Zboril who all will not be waivers exempt so something likely gives at some point between those 3. Maybe if Vaak plays well they can sell high in a deadline deal for him.
 

jk333

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I don't think DeBrusk would be of much interest to Philly. Their wingers are mostly good and signed through next season. Farabee, JVR and Lindblom at LW, Atkinson and Konecny at RW. I don't think Jake at $3.675 plus the qualifying offer would be of much interest to them.
Makes sense. Any idea on what they can expect for Debrusk? Presumably at the deadline is when to get the most for him as a reasonably talented top 9 wing.

Also agree that there is a logjam at D. They don’t have enough quality but too much quantity. More so next year than this.
 

cshea

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Eh, he said it was temporary. With Foligno back, they have to sit DeBrusk, Steen or Blidh. I prefer keeping DeBrusk playing, which leves Steen and Blidh. I'd sit Blidh, but I don't think it's a huge deal as long as Cassidy sticks to it being temporary. Sitting Steen also lets them bank a few cap dollars.
 

burstnbloom

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Eh, he said it was temporary. With Foligno back, they have to sit DeBrusk, Steen or Blidh. I prefer keeping DeBrusk playing, which leves Steen and Blidh. I'd sit Blidh, but I don't think it's a huge deal as long as Cassidy sticks to it being temporary. Sitting Steen also lets them bank a few cap dollars.
We'll see but it feels very familiar. I'm not sure where Steen fits if he insists on playing Debrusk and Foligno. I also prefer Debrusk over Foligno. I just think Foligno should be sitting until they need him at LW. He's been quite bad and the only justification to play him is the ill advised bloated contract Sweeney gave him and his veteran status. It's annoying.
 

cshea

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The correct answer here is to pull Blidh out of the lineup. Foligno would be fine, if not excel, on the 4th line. Blidh has piled up points (relative to expectation) but is due for a major regression.

Steen's not going to have a permanent home until they move DeBrusk and even then it's not a certainty. They've got too many forwards and not little flexibility.
 

IdiotKicker

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Honestly, now that they've built a bit of breathing room for the playoffs, I'd be really cautious with Marchand coming back too quickly. Rest him up, get him healthy, because for them to have any chance in the playoffs, they need him as close to 100% as possible.
 

cshea

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They'll need to call someone up from Providence. Steen goes in but they lost 2 F's last night so need another one.

I figure it's unlikely we get Studnicka because they're down wingers, not centers. Fogarty leads Providence in scoring and has ping ponged between Providence and the Taxi Squad this month. He's got some NHL experiencetoo, 27 games. If not him, Jesper Froden got a cameo on Long Island during the great Bruin covid outbreak before Christmas. Cam Hughes has had a decent run in Providence and has been called up before and played on a 4th line. Of course Senyshyn is having a decent-ish season, may not be a bad time to give him a Last Hurrah in the NHL. Finally, Chris Wagner is still toiling away for Providence but his contract probably precludes him from consideration.

Guessing Fogarty, but kinda hoping for one last look at Senyshyn.
 

Salem's Lot

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They'll need to call someone up from Providence. Steen goes in but they lost 2 F's last night so need another one.

I figure it's unlikely we get Studnicka because they're down wingers, not centers. Fogarty leads Providence in scoring and has ping ponged between Providence and the Taxi Squad this month. He's got some NHL experiencetoo, 27 games. If not him, Jesper Froden got a cameo on Long Island during the great Bruin covid outbreak before Christmas. Cam Hughes has had a decent run in Providence and has been called up before and played on a 4th line. Of course Senyshyn is having a decent-ish season, may not be a bad time to give him a Last Hurrah in the NHL. Finally, Chris Wagner is still toiling away for Providence but his contract probably precludes him from consideration.

Guessing Fogarty, but kinda hoping for one last look at Senyshyn.
According to Mark Divver, Fogarty wasn’t at Providence practice this morning.


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkDivver/status/1484548644556713992?cxt=HHwWkMC5qY7IlpopAAAA
 

Silverdude2167

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Is boarding just not a penalty any more? That is two straight games with refs staring right at blatant hits between the numbers into the boards without it being called.

What am I not seeing on these plays?
 

Cotillion

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Is boarding just not a penalty any more? That is two straight games with refs staring right at blatant hits between the numbers into the boards without it being called.

What am I not seeing on these plays?
You're seeing the Bruins jersey just like they are. You just don't think it should matter the jersey, they clearly do.
 

burstnbloom

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Cassidy said he wasn't sure if the injury happened before or during the fight, but it's upper-body and he didn't return after serving the 5 minutes. Pretty fair to think it is a concussion.
I'm sorry he's hurt but he's not very good, so it's fine. Blidh came in to his spot during practice. I don't know if they can trade Jake without getting a LW back. Either a center so Haula can take that spot or an actual LW. That depth dried up quickly.
 

cshea

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Friedman has the B’s “there” with the Panthers, CBJ, Anaheim and Carolina for Jakob Chychrun,

View: https://twitter.com/friedgehnic/status/1486130707005067269?s=21


LHD, 23 years old, $4.6 million AAV. Having a down year but the team is so bad it’s hard to really parse out how much is him and how much is the situation. Cap hit is manageable. The reported ask has been the usual young roster player, prospect, first round pick.
 

Jordu

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LHDs Grzelyck, Forbort and Reilly are signed through 2023-2024. Mason Lohrei seems to be developing. The progress of Vaakanainen and Zboril may have made acquiring a LHD less of a long-term priority.

But Chycrun would certainly fill a short-term need. He’s signed through 2024-2025, though. Do the Bruins want to make that commitment?

At this point, if the Bruins are going to trade a first-round pick I‘d rather they get back a forward.
 

cshea

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I think Chychrun is a decent long term play. He's another young piece that can be part of a new core, is better than Reilly and Forbort. The cap hit is manageable even if his true level is not a top pairing guy. I like him at $4.6AAV better than Carlo at $4.1 AAV. It'd also let them take a more patient approach in developing Lohrei (or even free them up to move him in another deal).

If they really want to go all in, they probably need a LHD and a center. They baiscally need to replicate what Tampa did years ago when they landed McDonagh and JT Miller at the deadline. Chychrun + JT Miller himself or Hertl would one scenario. Who knows if they have the assets and creativity to make it work.
 

burstnbloom

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I like Chychrun a lot but I don't know if I pay for last year's version. Arizona is notoriously difficult to deal with so my guess is they have a big asking price. I think he's a good top 2 LHD that compliments a better player very well. He'd be a great fit for McAvoy if they are insistent on moving Gryz off the top pair. I'd like him with Carlo as well. I definitely don't want to pay for "hes on pace for 25 goals" Jacob Chychrun. That was a nursian shooting percentage blip he may never repeat. His defense hasn't slipped this year at all despite being absolutely buried by zone starts and horrible quality of teammate.

All that said, I think he's going to be pretty expensive and it likely puts $3m in the press box. I think Cassidy would play Forbort over Reilly and that really takes back a lot of the gains you get by acquiring an upgrade. They don't have a lot to deal, and if I'm paying for a D, its a RHD to upgrade Clifton's slot and cashing my chips in for help up the middle.
 

cshea

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Thinking about it, JFJ is in AZ now as the AGM. I bet he asks for Swayman for Chychrun. I might do that.
They also went deep on OEL so they should know each other well.

They need to balance salaries somehow. I think they'd probably have to include John Moore to make it work. I don't think DeBrusk would be of much interest to Arizona, and I'd like to save him for another deal. Moore's got a year left which might be a problem but he's got a history in Arizona and they've been willing to take bad money back. Moore plus an ELC (say Vaak) gets them to ~$3 million in salary going to Arizona with $4.6 million coming back. Cap Friendly says they are $2.1 million under at the moment but it's almost impossible to keep track of the actual cap space with the constant cap banking maneuvers like sending Steen and Vaakanainen down to the taxi-squad on non-game days.
 

burstnbloom

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They also went deep on OEL so they should know each other well.

They need to balance salaries somehow. I think they'd probably have to include John Moore to make it work. I don't think DeBrusk would be of much interest to Arizona, and I'd like to save him for another deal. Moore's got a year left which might be a problem but he's got a history in Arizona and they've been willing to take bad money back. Moore plus an ELC (say Vaak) gets them to ~$3 million in salary going to Arizona with $4.6 million coming back. Cap Friendly says they are $2.1 million under at the moment but it's almost impossible to keep track of the actual cap space with the constant cap banking maneuvers like sending Steen and Vaakanainen down to the taxi-squad on non-game days.
They have the deadline cap space to make it worth without sending money bc of the banked cap space but it creates significant problems next season. They'd have $11m to spend on a backup goalie, a number 1 center and 2 additional forwards just to stay as good as they are now. It's hard to see an upgraded roster without a place to send one of the three $3m D. That Forbort contract. It's awesome.
 

cshea

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or Foligno's $3.9 million. Between him and Forbort that's $7 million in dead cap space and it was entirely avoidable.

Still think they should shove it in and worry about the future in the offseason.
 

joe dokes

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or Foligno's $3.9 million. Between him and Forbort that's $7 million in dead cap space and it was entirely avoidable.

Still think they should shove it in and worry about the future in the offseason.
Question I should know the answer to...can teams still waive players like this and, if unclaimed, send them to the minors and get the $$$ off the books for cap purposes? (I seem to recall that was recently changed to "no," but I cant specifically find it.)
 

biff_hardbody

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The issue with those contracts is that this result was almost inevitable when they were signed. It's a recurring theme that as soon as the Bruins get a bad contract off the books (e.g. Backes, and Beleskey before him) they immediately commit to another terrible contract or two.

I do think the Bruins were bullied by the Islanders and losing to physical teams in the playoffs has been a recent trend (see the Blues in 2019). I don't know what the answer is but it's become obvious that it wasn't the Foligno and Forbort signings. Frustrating.
 

cshea

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Question I should know the answer to...can teams still waive players like this and, if unclaimed, send them to the minors and get the $$$ off the books for cap purposes? (I seem to recall that was recently changed to "no," but I cant specifically find it.)
Yeah, you can't do that anymore. You can waive a bad contract down but you don't get much cap relief. It's like a $1.125 million cleared off.

The Bruins have done this with Chris Wagner and John Moore this year. Wagner has been in Providence all year but the Bruins are still carrying a $225K cap charge for him (full hit for him is $1.3 million). Moore has bounced back and forth. His full cap hit when he is in Boston is $2.75 million, when his is Providence he costs $1.625 million against the Bruins cap.

There's no way to rid yourselve of a bad contract.
 

Myt1

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Can one of the stat aficionados walk me through why we discuss 5v5 stats and the like? What are we trying to correct for? Given that a disproportionate number of goals are scored on the power play, doesn’t carving them out skew analysis?

Have data shown that PP and PK success are random/unpredictable or that numbers of PPs and PKs are random or unpredictable such that the narrower analysis is better at stuff?

Help!
 

burstnbloom

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Can one of the stat aficionados walk me through why we discuss 5v5 stats and the like? What are we trying to correct for? Given that a disproportionate number of goals are scored on the power play, doesn’t carving them out skew analysis?

Have data shown that PP and PK success are random/unpredictable or that numbers of PPs and PKs are random or unpredictable such that the narrower analysis is better at stuff?

Help!
The higher frequency of goals scored on the PP and lower on the PK skew the numbers so they don't have much relevance to normal run of play. There are so many variables they are already trying to normalize (QOC, QOT, zone start,score effect etc) that adding special teams throws the numbers out of whack. Also, a players opportunity on the PP is going to vary by team performance, opponent performance and official's tendencies so a guy on Tampa who gets 55% of the PP time share vs opponents is going to have far greater scoring and shot numbers than someone on the Bruins who get 46% of the PP time share. It's easier to look at 5v5 performance vs 5v5 performance and PP performance vs PP performance (rates are better than counts to normalize for opportunity but this also has problems) and you learn more from the sampling.
 

Myt1

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The higher frequency of goals scored on the PP and lower on the PK skew the numbers so they don't have much relevance to normal run of play. There are so many variables they are already trying to normalize (QOC, QOT, zone start,score effect etc) that adding special teams throws the numbers out of whack. Also, a players opportunity on the PP is going to vary by team performance, opponent performance and official's tendencies so a guy on Tampa who gets 55% of the PP time share vs opponents is going to have far greater scoring and shot numbers than someone on the Bruins who get 46% of the PP time share. It's easier to look at 5v5 performance vs 5v5 performance and PP performance vs PP performance (rates are better than counts to normalize for opportunity but this also has problems) and you learn more from the sampling.
Do we do this in an attempt to discern something like “true ability,” of players/lines/pairings/teams or something else?

I guess my broader question is, “What’s the goal of conducting the analysis this way?” What are we trying to determine?

And thanks.
 

burstnbloom

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Do we do this in an attempt to discern something like “true ability,” of players/lines/pairings/teams or something else?

I guess my broader question is, “What’s the goal of conducting the analysis this way?” What are we trying to determine?

And thanks.
Sure - happy to help in my limited way. They are trying to measure true performance, yes. The majority of the game of hockey is played 5v5, so we want to understand how a player drives play in that situation relative to his teammates, in order to determine how he stacks up against his peers across the league. Play driving is easy at 5v4, hard at 4v5 but we're comparing apples to apples using 5v5 with all players.