2020 Tompa Bay: Tom Tom Club

johnmd20

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He's gonna get the passing yards record as well. Both will eventually be broken because the league is just bonkers now and guys like Mahomes will average 38-45 TDs and 4800 yards a season for a decade, especially with 17 games. Still, I don't know of a sport in which the owner of the top spot in all its major statistical categories is also the winningest player. Pretty special.
I'm not so sure Mahomes will just roll to 80,000 yards. Rodgers is currently at 51,000.(he turned 37 in December) You need to play a REALLY long time, at a high level, and avoid injuries to reach that milestone. There is no guarantee any QB will be able to do so. Football is still pretty rough and a lot of guys get beaten out of the game by the time they are 37/38 and have made a ton of money and just don't want to take the hits.

Brady is just a psycho. And Brees is pretty impressive, too, but less so because he was in a dome. So much easier to compile big numbers in a dome, especially when they are cumulative over 2 decades. That's a massive amount of climate controlled games.
 

rodderick

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For some perspective...

Joe Montana retired at the age of 38. Through age 38, Brady was already the GOAT, having passed Montana. But from age 39-43, here's what Brady has done:

- 58-18 record
- 5 playoff appearances
- 3 conference championships (age 39, 40, 41)
- 2 Super Bowl championships (age 39, 41)
- 1 Super Bowl MVP (age 39)
- 2 passing yards records set in a SB (age 39, and then did it again at age 40)
- 3 pro-bowls (age 39, 40, 41 - got screwed out of it at age 43)
- 1 all-pro (age 40)
- 1 MVP (age 40)
- passing stats: 1,825-2,806 (65.0%), 21,176 yds, 153 td, 41 int, 99.8 rating

I mean, these five years have been one hell of a *career*. But it's just on top of what he'd already done to cement his status as the GOAT.
That's basically Kurt Warner's career.
 

BaseballJones

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Brady's "first" career: 2000-2006
- 70-24, 12-2 playoffs, 3 conf championships, 3 Super Bowl titles, 5 playoff appearances, 3 pro bowls
- 61.9%, 21,564 yds, 147 td, 78 int, 88.4 rating

Brady's "second" career: 2007-2013
- 78-19, 6-6 playoffs, 2 conf championships, 6 playoff appearances, 6 pro bowls, 1 all-pro, 2 MVP
- 64.8%, 27,585 yds, 212 td, 56 int, 102.2 rating

Brady's "third" career: 2014-2019
- 71-21, 12-3 playoffs, 4 conf championships, 3 Super Bowl titles, 6 playoff appearances, 5 pro bowls, 1 all-pro, 1 MVP
- 64.6%, 25,422 yds, 182 td, 45 int, 99.4 rating

Brady's "fourth" career: 2020-?
- 11-5, 1 playoff appearance
- 65.7%, 4,633 yds, 40 td, 12 int, 102.2 rating

Amazing. Just amazing.
 

Harry Hooper

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I hope (and doubt) he knows the right procedure for jump starting a car. Do it wrong, and if one of the batteries is bad and is generating Hydrogen, a spark can create an explosion and blow your face off.
Growing up in chilly Buffalo winters, I am confident he learned how to jump a car with a dead battery.
 

brandonchristensen

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The hard thing to compare Montana to Brady is how much the game has changed to protect them.

It's also hard to assume anyone, even Mahomes, will come close to his numbers. A freak injury, like the one in 2008 that stopped Brady's career in its tracks and he was never the same again but still had a career good enough for the Hall - which he has been in for nearly a decade now, could stop Mahomes as well.
 

DJnVa

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I hope (and doubt) he knows the right procedure for jump starting a car. Do it wrong, and if one of the batteries is bad and is generating Hydrogen, a spark can create an explosion and blow your face off.
I mean, he seemed to do it correctly no? It's not all that hard.
 

Oil Can Dan

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It seemed that Alex Smith couldn't stay in the pocket or move well enough to throw anything but passes to the flat. I can't imagine Tampa is going to have any issues moving past WFT.
 

rodderick

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The hard thing to compare Montana to Brady is how much the game has changed to protect them.

It's also hard to assume anyone, even Mahomes, will come close to his numbers. A freak injury, like the one in 2008 that stopped Brady's career in its tracks and he was never the same again but still had a career good enough for the Hall - which he has been in for nearly a decade now, could stop Mahomes as well.
Montana was just fragile. Marino, Kelly and Elway weren't injured to the same extent he was, for instance.

And wait, Brady played his best football after his 2008 injury, how was he never the same again?
 

Cellar-Door

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It seemed that Alex Smith couldn't stay in the pocket or move well enough to throw anything but passes to the flat. I can't imagine Tampa is going to have any issues moving past WFT.
We'll see. I think WFT is a sneaky bet this week, Brady has been great with lower pressure, but not as good under pressure, and WFT can probably get pressure as well as anyone left.
Smith is the question, can he get the ball to McLaurin? Because the TB outside corners are vulnerable, particularly to speed. Just look at some of the late season performances they gave up:
Ridley 163 TD
Hill 269 3 TD
Kupp 145
Woods 130 TD
Moore 96 TD
 

Bergs

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The hard thing to compare Montana to Brady is how much the game has changed to protect them.

It's also hard to assume anyone, even Mahomes, will come close to his numbers. A freak injury, like the one in 2008 that stopped Brady's career in its tracks and he was never the same again but still had a career good enough for the Hall - which he has been in for nearly a decade now, could stop Mahomes as well.
Say what now?
 

Oil Can Dan

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We'll see. I think WFT is a sneaky bet this week, Brady has been great with lower pressure, but not as good under pressure, and WFT can probably get pressure as well as anyone left.
Smith is the question, can he get the ball to McLaurin? Because the TB outside corners are vulnerable, particularly to speed. Just look at some of the late season performances they gave up:
Ridley 163 TD
Hill 269 3 TD
Kupp 145
Woods 130 TD
Moore 96 TD
Agreed on the bolded, but in a must-win game vs scrubs from Philly the WFT OL couldn't pass block to save their lives. I don't know where to find those fancy pass charts but he didn't seem to be able to throw the ball more than 7 yards down the field due to no time to pass and no ability to drive the ball or move within the pocket. The Eagles secondary was in shambles yet they never challenged them.

I know every week is different but I suspect that the TB DL is going to bother Alex Smith way more than the WFT DL is going to bother Brady.
 

Cellar-Door

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Agreed on the bolded, but in a must-win game vs scrubs from Philly the WFT OL couldn't pass block to save their lives. I don't know where to find those fancy pass charts but he didn't seem to be able to throw the ball more than 7 yards down the field due to no time to pass and no ability to drive the ball or move within the pocket. The Eagles secondary was in shambles yet they never challenged them.

I know every week is different but I suspect that the TB DL is going to bother Alex Smith way more than the WFT DL is going to bother Brady.


Not a lot downfield, but he did go 4-5 for 2TDs and 1 INT on passes over 10 yards.

Not terrible, especially with both Smith and McLaurin coming off injuries.
 

Oil Can Dan

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Yes, 4 for 5 on passes more than 10 yards, but only 5 passes over 10 yards total. I don't think that number is so low by design, I think it's because he had no time or ability to do more of that. Looks like 22 passes of 6 yards or less.

I don't think that's gonna work vs TB, and I don't think there's much they can do about it. I honestly think they're better off with Heinicke.

Edit - by the way, that chart seems goofy to me. His TD passes were 5 yards and 12 yards but to me that chart shows that they're 14 & 19 yards. I get it, it's a representation of the ball from hand to catch, but the one isn't really a "pass of over 10 yards" by the book, and the other is only 12 yards.
 
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johnmd20

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@brandonchristensen ....I think we need a ruling here.
In its tracks.

I do not think it was sarcasm. But he also did say that post 2008 Brady alone had a Hall of Fame career. So it was a compliment overall, but I do quibble with the comment, "stopped Brady's career in its tracks and was never the same again." Never the same how? He won two MVPs after 2008, only one before. And one of them was in 2010.

If his career was stopped in its tracks, he ain't winning MVPs a year later. The message is mixed and is hard to figure out. Maybe it was sarcasm but it doesn't match up with the rest.

Joe Theisman's career was stopped in its tracks. RGIII too. Those would be better examples.
 

Cellar-Door

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Yes, 4 for 5 on passes more than 10 yards, but only 5 passes over 10 yards total. I don't think that number is so low by design, I think it's because he had no time or ability to do more of that. Looks like 22 passes of 6 yards or less.

I don't think that's gonna work vs TB, and I don't think there's much they can do about it. I honestly think they're better off with Heinicke.

Edit - by the way, that chart seems goofy to me. His TD passes were 5 yards and 12 yards but to me that chart shows that they're 14 & 19 yards. I get it, it's a representation of the ball from hand to catch, but the one isn't really a "pass of over 10 yards" by the book, and the other is only 12 yards.
It isn't hand to catch, it's LOS to catch... sure it's a "5 yard" and "12 yard" pass in the box score, but only because we stop counting yards at the goalline:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFZgCo3_YaU&feature=onebox

The 5 yard TD is at 0:34, it is caught 9 yards deep in the endzone, 3:30 or so is the other, and it is caught 6-7 yards into the EZ. They are clearly 10+ yards downfield, and you should count them that way.

I agree, pressure will matter, and if there is a lot of pressure Smith will struggle, but TB hasn't had a better pass rush than PHI by the metrics I've seen, and they've been vulnerable to the pass in the secondary and LB levels.
 

snowmanny

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The hard thing to compare Montana to Brady is how much the game has changed to protect them.

It's also hard to assume anyone, even Mahomes, will come close to his numbers. A freak injury, like the one in 2008 that stopped Brady's career in its tracks and he was never the same again but still had a career good enough for the Hall - which he has been in for nearly a decade now, could stop Mahomes as well.
I actually thought the "freak injury" part looked more like sarcasm. That was the opposite of a freak injury...it was a guy who made a career out of injuring players with dirty hits diving at Brady's leg and putting his helmet into his knee. Intentional injury, nothing "freak" about it and an illegal hit today (as was the hit that knocked Brady out of the 2001AFCCG).

Mahomes obviously could be the victim of a similar dirty hit and miss part of a year but the odds are lower since it would be a penalty/fine.ED: So the comment about comparing Montana to Brady applies to comparing Brady to Mahomes: Mahomes is better protected than Brady was (at the start of his career) as evidenced by the only two hits that knocked Brady out of games.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzQVmZDXS4w


Brady hit is at 5:49
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=De8gmp-pFT0
 
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Al Zarilla

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I mean, he seemed to do it correctly no? It's not all that hard.
Growing up in chilly Buffalo winters, I am confident he learned how to jump a car with a dead battery.
If you create a spark near a battery that's creating hydrogen, you can get a serious explosion. So, there's a preferred sequence to hooking up the cables, but there is no foolproof method. I just don't do it anymore (call AAA).
 

DJnVa

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If you create a spark near a battery that's creating hydrogen, you can get a serious explosion. So, there's a preferred sequence to hooking up the cables, but there is no foolproof method. I just don't do it anymore (call AAA).
Sure, it can be dangerous if you don't know what you are doing. As are many things.

As evidence that he knows what he's doing, I present the fact that there was no explosion and the car started.
 

wilked

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If you create a spark near a battery that's creating hydrogen, you can get a serious explosion. So, there's a preferred sequence to hooking up the cables, but there is no foolproof method. I just don't do it anymore (call AAA).
You know there are roughly 4 steps involved, yes? Let’s not make this to be something it isn’t.
 

Harry Hooper

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WaPo article on Tom's season with the Bucs includes this stunning factoid about that franchise's history:

So far, Brady has been a blockbuster for Tampa Bay - a franchise that has never given a second contract to a quarterback it has drafted.
 

brandonchristensen

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Montana was just fragile. Marino, Kelly and Elway weren't injured to the same extent he was, for instance.

And wait, Brady played his best football after his 2008 injury, how was he never the same again?
I’m joking. That was definitely the fear going into 2009. And then 11 years later he’s as good as always.
 

brandonchristensen

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I actually thought the "freak injury" part looked more like sarcasm. That was the opposite of a freak injury...it was a guy who made a career out of injuring players with dirty hits diving at Brady's leg and putting his helmet into his knee. Intentional injury, nothing "freak" about it and an illegal hit today (as was the hit that knocked Brady out of the 2001AFCCG).

Mahomes obviously could be the victim of a similar dirty hit and miss part of a year but the odds are lower since it would be a penalty/fine.ED: So the comment about comparing Montana to Brady applies to comparing Brady to Mahomes: Mahomes is better protected than Brady was (at the start of his career) as evidenced by the only two hits that knocked Brady out of games.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzQVmZDXS4w


Brady hit is at 5:49
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=De8gmp-pFT0
Freak in that he got hit in just the wrong way. I get it may have (okay probably was) intentional but how many times do players get hit low, it looks bad, and they bounce up and keep going?

Just bad luck.
 

brandonchristensen

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In its tracks.

I do not think it was sarcasm. But he also did say that post 2008 Brady alone had a Hall of Fame career. So it was a compliment overall, but I do quibble with the comment, "stopped Brady's career in its tracks and was never the same again." Never the same how? He won two MVPs after 2008, only one before. And one of them was in 2010.

If his career was stopped in its tracks, he ain't winning MVPs a year later. The message is mixed and is hard to figure out. Maybe it was sarcasm but it doesn't match up with the rest.

Joe Theisman's career was stopped in its tracks. RGIII too. Those would be better examples.
It was sloppy sarcasm.
 

streeter88

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Only five franchises have more playoff wins than Brady by himself.
This was mentioned in the game thread today. With today’s win Brady now has a playoff record of 31-11 and 6 SB rings.

He needs 2 more wins to equal SF, and if he goes 4-0 this time around he will pass the Steelers in ringz and be 2 wins behind them all time.

Don’t know if the Bucs have the defense for it, but fun to watch nonetheless.

 

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Assuming Brady plays at least one more year and doesn't fall off a cliff or suffer an injury that costs him significant playing time, he'll likely go over 600 TD passes next year, which is remarkable.

He also has a realistic shot at ending his career with 100 more TDs than Brett Favre (he needs 27 more), and an outside shot at finishing with 100 more than Manning (58 more).
 

JohnnyK

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View: https://twitter.com/doug_clawson/status/1348128003247759361?s=21

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Tom Brady has beaten more different teams in his playoff career (17 including Washington) than any QB has won total games (16 - Joe Montana) in playoff history.

EDIT: also interesting, after yesterday's game Tom Brady now has more playoff completions than anyone has attempts
Attempts: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_att_career_playoffs.htm
Completions: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_cmp_career_playoffs.htm
 
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BaseballJones

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Last 5 games, including playoffs:

116-176 (65.9%), 2,059 yds, 14 td, 1 int (and that was a bad break)

He also had about a half-dozen passes dropped yesterday, including two touchdowns.

His last four games, he's thrown for 390, 348, 399, and 381 yds (avg of 379.5 per game). He's averaged 9.9 y/a over this stretch.

Washington came into yesterday's game with the #4 scoring defense and the #2 yardage defense. They came in with the #3 passing defense by opposing passer rating, and the #2 passing defense by pass yards allowed.

And Brady - even with all those drops - shredded them. He should have finished with well over 400 yards and 4 touchdowns yesterday.
 

lexrageorge

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View: https://twitter.com/doug_clawson/status/1348128003247759361?s=21

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Tom Brady has beaten more different teams in his playoff career (17 including Washington) than any QB has won total games (16 - Joe Montana) in playoff history.

EDIT: also interesting, after yesterday's game Tom Brady now has more playoff completions than anyone has attempts
Attempts: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_att_career_playoffs.htm
Completions: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_cmp_career_playoffs.htm
Raiders
Steelers (3-0)
Rams (2-0)
Titans (1-1)
Colts (4-1)
Panthers
Eagles (1-1)
Jaguars (3-0)
Broncos (1-3)
Jets (1-1)
Chargers (3-0)
Ravens (2-2)
Texans (2-0)
Seahawks
Chiefs (2-0)
Falcons
WFT

AFC teams not faced in playoffs:
Bills
Dolphins
Browns
Bengals
Pats
 

BroodsSexton

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I havent watched Brady this year, but followed this thread a bit, and expected to see a different game yesterday. He looked incredibly comfortable in that offense, and — dare I say (though probably my imagination) — it looked like a a hell of a lot of fun for him to have an aired out offense with amazing weapons. About halfway through, I said to myself “he’s going to win another Super Bowl, isn’t he?”

If I were a betting man, I’d put money on it right now.
 

jsinger121

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I havent watched Brady this year, but followed this thread a bit, and expected to see a different game yesterday. He looked incredibly comfortable in that offense, and — dare I say (though probably my imagination) — it looked like a a hell of a lot of fun for him to have an aired out offense with amazing weapons. About halfway through, I said to myself “he’s going to win another Super Bowl, isn’t he?”

If I were a betting man, I’d put money on it right now.
I wouldn’t. He hasn’t beaten anyone good this season except for Green Bay. They have feasted on a soft schedule and only one win over a winning team (Packers). Talk to me when he goes on the road and upsets a real team.
 

BaseballJones

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Well it’s a team game not just Brady vs whomever. But yesterday against one of the elite pass defenses in the game, Brady pretty much went off. He’d have had HUMONGOUS numbers if not for a bunch of drops (including two dropped TDs). I think his performance yesterday was pretty impressive.

I do worry about Tampa’s defense though.
 

BroodsSexton

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I wouldn’t. He hasn’t beaten anyone good this season except for Green Bay. They have feasted on a soft schedule and only one win over a winning team (Packers). Talk to me when he goes on the road and upsets a real team.
Fair—though a win against GB isn’t nothing. Like I said, I haven’t watched Tampa. But Washington had a pretty good defense, and for all the hand-wringing, Brady shredded them. Then again, the TB defense made Heinicke look like Russell Wilson...
 

deanx0

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I love rooting for Tom, but I can't see them winning with Arians as a coach. Someone is going to outthink him in the next few rounds. A perfect example of Arians being a dunce in my opinion occurred last night in the second quarter when the Bucs scored a TD to take an 8-point lead and they went for 2 and failed instead of kicking to make it a 2-score game. I get that a PAT was previously blocked, but they clearly had faith in the kicker as he kicked a field goal later in the same quarter (and made PATs in the second half). Why the hell don't you make it a two-score game right there? Stupid stuff like that makes me think Arians is a limiting factor for that team.
 

jsinger121

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Fair—though a win against GB isn’t nothing. Like I said, I haven’t watched Tampa. But Washington had a pretty good defense, and for all the hand-wringing, Brady shredded them. Then again, the TB defense made Heinicke look like Russell Wilson...
Washington is a 7-9 team for a reason. They suck. He did exactly what he should have done against a losing team that really had no business being in the playoffs except they play in the shitty NFC east.
 

johnmd20

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Starting the playoffs this year, Tom Brady had more playoff wins than every other QB in the playoffs combined.

That includes Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, and Aaron Rodgers.

Just a ridiculous career. He has more playoff wins than every other team in the NFL except for GB, SF, Pitt, and Dallas.
 

rodderick

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Washington is a 7-9 team for a reason. They suck. He did exactly what he should have done against a losing team that really had no business being in the playoffs except they play in the shitty NFC east.
They were the number 3 defense and 32nd offense by DVOA. They suck, but mainly because they've had awful QB play. Most passing yards they had given up this season before yesterday was 308 to Ben. That defense is legit and to hang 381 yards on them with 7 drops, including two dropped TDs is pretty remarkable.
 

Super Nomario

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Well it’s a team game not just Brady vs whomever. But yesterday against one of the elite pass defenses in the game, Brady pretty much went off. He’d have had HUMONGOUS numbers if not for a bunch of drops (including two dropped TDs). I think his performance yesterday was pretty impressive.

I do worry about Tampa’s defense though.
Their D is weird. They've had weeks where they've looked great. They held the Packers - the #1 scoring offense - to 10 points and just 201 yards of total offense, both their worst totals of the season. Overall they finished 8th in scoring D and 6th in yardage D, and they had the best run D in the league by most measures. But they've had weeks where they've looked awful. Heinicke was carving them up last night.
 

BroodsSexton

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They were the number 3 defense and 32nd offense by DVOA. They suck, but mainly because they've had awful QB play. Most passing yards they had given up this season before yesterday was 308 to Ben. That defense is legit and to hang 381 yards on them with 7 drops, including two dropped TDs is pretty remarkable.
To that point, weren’t they 5-1 to end the season once Alex Smith came back?