2020 Tompa Bay: Tom Tom Club

Euclis20

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It's an odd enough group that I don't know what to make of it. Couch and Winston are #1 overall flops, with or without Arians. Luck was a rookie so him throwing a lot of picks doesn't mean much, and Brady is 43, so what conclusions can you really draw from his performance regarding the HC? Palmer was 34 and made pro-bowls before and after 2013, but other than Palmer I see Arians having guys who were talented but never any good (Couch/Winston), weren't good yet (Luck) or were well past their primes (Brady).
 

BaseballJones

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Couch: 21 in 2001, averaged 9.2 in the rest of his NFL seasons*, an increase of 128%
Luck: 18 in 2012, averaged 13.0 in the rest of his NFL seasons*, an increase of 38%
Palmer: 22 in 2013, averaged 15.3 in the rest of his NFL seasons*, an increase of 44%
Winston: 30 in 2019, averaged 14.5 in the rest of his NFL seasons*, an increase of 107%
Brady: 11 so far in 2020 (on pace for 15), averaged 9.9 in the rest of his NFL seasons*, an projected increase of 52%

*where he played more than 8 games


That can't just be...coincidence. (I guess it CAN be, but it's still suspicious)
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Conveniently omitted from the above graphic and the closest to as prolific a career is Ben Roethlisberger. Threw 11 INTs in his first season with Arians as OC (2007), less than his career average and much less than the 23 picks he threw in 2006.
 

Euclis20

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Couch: 21 in 2001, averaged 9.2 in the rest of his NFL seasons*, an increase of 128%
Luck: 18 in 2012, averaged 13.0 in the rest of his NFL seasons*, an increase of 38%
Palmer: 22 in 2013, averaged 15.3 in the rest of his NFL seasons*, an increase of 44%
Winston: 30 in 2019, averaged 14.5 in the rest of his NFL seasons*, an increase of 107%
Brady: 11 so far in 2020 (on pace for 15), averaged 9.9 in the rest of his NFL seasons*, an projected increase of 52%

*where he played more than 8 games


That can't just be...coincidence. (I guess it CAN be, but it's still suspicious)
The biggest factor here is pure volume. Couch and Winston had a career high in attempts under Arians, Luck and Brady (on pace) had their second most attempts in their first year under Arians. Again, Palmer is the odd man out here with just his 4th most pass attempts in his first year with Arians. It's a fun graphic to look at, but I don't see anything to be gained from analyzing how terrible QBs (Winston, Couch, Luck as a rookie) played in their first year with Arians. Palmer is the only useful data point, and it's exactly 1 data point (if it's being used to show Brady's number of interceptions is a trend with Arians).

I suppose the argument is that either Arians' offense results in an unusually high number of interceptions, or he asks a lot out of his QBs, whether they can handle it or not. I won't claim to have watched much of the other guys when they played for Arians, but I've seen most of the Buc's games this year, and Brady looks pretty similar to his last two seasons in New England. He's just older and being asked to do more.
 

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more grist for the mill:

Anybody who has followed the Bucs over the past month also realizes that a shortage of creativity is a problem here. Countless broadcasters and analysts have harped over the lack of pre-snap motion and the challenges Brady faces by often having to read defenses after the ball is snapped. This isn't overkill. Arians and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich legitimately have made the job harder for Brady in the last few weeks.
Some of that might be the result of having too much confidence in a Hall of Fame signal-caller. It could even have plenty to do with coaching arrogance, as Arians hasn't shied away from calling out Brady for plays that are dialed up and don't work.
 

E5 Yaz

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While the focus is on Brady, the defense has given up 138 points over the past five games
 

m0ckduck

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Countless broadcasters and analysts have harped over the lack of pre-snap motion and the challenges Brady faces by often having to read defenses after the ball is snapped. This isn't overkill. Arians and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich legitimately have made the job harder for Brady in the last few weeks.
What's the possible explanation for this anyway— the lack of pre-snap motion? I don't know enough Xs and Os to answer this with certainty. Is there a real tactical trade-off, where running motion would prevent Arians and Leftwich from implementing some of the looks and formations they want to use? Or is it more just a stubbornness/arrogance/ignorance thing, where they don't want to be bothered implementing a lot of pre-snap trickiness that takes time to design and practice, and that might dilute focus from other things they see as being more important?

I guess that, in order to put players in motion effectively, you need versatile players who can prosper doing "plan B" instead of "plan A"— e.g. you motion a RB out of the backfield and he becomes a receiver; you motion a wideout across the field and he can become a slot receiver. So, I guess one answer could be that they feel their best chance is to have all their talented players continually do the thing they are best suited for and not stoop to any Plan Bs, as it were.
 

BaseballJones

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The biggest factor here is pure volume. Couch and Winston had a career high in attempts under Arians, Luck and Brady (on pace) had their second most attempts in their first year under Arians. Again, Palmer is the odd man out here with just his 4th most pass attempts in his first year with Arians. It's a fun graphic to look at, but I don't see anything to be gained from analyzing how terrible QBs (Winston, Couch, Luck as a rookie) played in their first year with Arians. Palmer is the only useful data point, and it's exactly 1 data point (if it's being used to show Brady's number of interceptions is a trend with Arians).

I suppose the argument is that either Arians' offense results in an unusually high number of interceptions, or he asks a lot out of his QBs, whether they can handle it or not. I won't claim to have watched much of the other guys when they played for Arians, but I've seen most of the Buc's games this year, and Brady looks pretty similar to his last two seasons in New England. He's just older and being asked to do more.
It's not just pure volume though. Let's look at interception percentage.

Raw numbers:
Couch: 21 in 2001, averaged 9.2 in the rest of his NFL seasons*, an increase of 128%
Luck: 18 in 2012, averaged 13.0 in the rest of his NFL seasons*, an increase of 38%
Palmer: 22 in 2013, averaged 15.3 in the rest of his NFL seasons*, an increase of 44%
Winston: 30 in 2019, averaged 14.5 in the rest of his NFL seasons*, an increase of 107%
Brady: 11 so far in 2020 (on pace for 15), averaged 9.9 in the rest of his NFL seasons*, an projected increase of 52%

Interception percentage:
Couch: 4.6%, averaged 3.7% in the rest of his career
Luck: 2.9%, averaged 2.4% in the rest of his career
Palmer: 3.0%, averaged 2.8% in the rest of his career
Winston: 4.8%, averaged 3.0% in the rest of his career
Brady: 2.3%, averaged 1.8% in the rest of his career

So yeah, volume is a thing that contributes to raw numbers, but even the percentages are higher in every single case, and in a few, *significantly* higher.

One of the announcers said that Arians' offense relies a lot on post-snap reads, which you'd think Brady would excel at given his experience level. But maybe that's why a lack of motion hurts - it gives things away that helps the QBs, and by not using motion, your'e asking the QBs to interpret the defense more than other systems after the ball has been snapped - when a horde of defenders are crashing in around you. I don't understand how these things all work. I just know that whether you look at raw numbers or percentage, you've seen each of these guys in their first year in Arians' system, perform worse from an interception standpoint.

One possible exception is Roethlisberger, and he needs to be pointed out. His first year under Arians was in 2007 in Pittsburgh (where else?). That year, Roethlisberger threw 11 interceptions, when he averaged 11.5 in his other seasons, and had thrown 23 the previous year. But since you talked about volume, it should be noted that he only had 404 attempts that year, so let's look at int%. His int% in 2007 was 2.7, which is just a tick higher than his non-2007 career interception percentage of 2.6%. So he was obviously much more in line with his career norms compared to the other guys.
 

BaseballJones

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TB and BB would probably get to the Super Bowl with this roster.
I think if NE had this roster and they didn't get to the SB, we'd all be VERY disappointed. There's more raw talent on this Bucs team than the Pats have had in a long time.
 

Van Everyman

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I think we’re beginning to see why NE has a poor record of drafting receivers compared to, say, Pittsburgh which has been a huge source of frustration for fans over the years.

But as you watch Brady struggle to consistently connect with receivers that have 5-7x the raw ability of, say, a David Givens or Jabar Gaffney, my sense is that a huge piece of Brady’s success in New England was that Bill’s receiving corps (and OL) prioritized being able to read defenses and make correct decisions over athleticism and executing a particular route tree. Brady’s receivers were designed to give him many more options and, not coincidentally, a distinct advantage during those clutch two minute drills at the end of games when they needed efficient chunk yard plays and no mistakes. So instead of four guys going in four predetermined directions, it’s more like 6 or 8 options depending on the defensive playcall.

What you’re watching right now is like every receiver Brady ever struggled to connect with—Ochocinco/Galloway/Wayne—collectively (and, unlike those guys, in their prime) trying to learn this system in real time. It’s obviously much harder than it seems. The raw ability of guys like Evans, Godwin and Brown obviously make up for some of it but it may not really be possible without a system in place to coach these guys up.

Which is why I think Brady is going to push really hard to get McDaniels to Tampa this off-season.
 
My preseason bet with @SMU_Sox is quite delicately poised, isn't it? I win if Tampa Bay finishes 9-7 or worse, and I lose if it finishes 10-6 or better - and the Bucs are currently 7-5. Their schedule is vs. Minnesota, at Atlanta, at Detroit and vs. Atlanta, which seems pretty easy on paper...but I'd be surprised if they beat the Falcons twice in 14 days, which means they'd need to sweep the other two games if they split with Atlanta. I think I'd rather be @SMU_Sox at this point, but it's closer than I thought it was going to be a few weeks ago!
 

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Since they added Antonio Brown they've lost 3 of 4 games. Brown has made 20 catches at a paltry 8.4 yards per reception, he has 0 TDs, and is averaging 42 yards per game while getting 7.25 targets per game. Since Brown's arrival, Scotty Miller has caught 2 balls on 5 targets. Miller on the season has caught 27 balls at 15.3 yards per reception. He's been much better than Antonio Brown. The fact is when you have Evans and Godwin you don't need another WR with WR1 expectations and pedigree. You need receivers that can complement the big 2 and take advantage of the coverage mismatches they create- which is exactly what Miller provided- quite successfully. (Miller has been slowed by nagging injuries, so that may be part of his production drop off.)

The Bucs have made two NYY in the early 2000s "embarrassment of riches" moves in bringing in Brown and Fournette and neither has panned out. It's dumb roster management and in the case of Brown (and I suspect in LF's case as well), TB was the driver behind the acquisition.
 

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Since they added Antonio Brown they've lost 3 of 4 games. Brown has made 20 catches at a paltry 8.4 yards per reception, he has 0 TDs, and is averaging 42 yards per game while getting 7.25 targets per game. Since Brown's arrival, Scotty Miller has caught 2 balls on 5 targets. Miller on the season has caught 27 balls at 15.3 yards per reception. He's been much better than Antonio Brown. The fact is when you have Evans and Godwin you don't need another WR with WR1 expectations and pedigree. You need receivers that can complement the big 2 and take advantage of the coverage mismatches they create- which is exactly what Miller provided- quite successfully. (Miller has been slowed by nagging injuries, so that may be part of his production drop off.)

The Bucs have made two NYY in the early 2000s "embarrassment of riches" moves in bringing in Brown and Fournette and neither has panned out. It's dumb roster management and in the case of Brown (and I suspect in LF's case as well), TB was the driver behind the acquisition.
Fournette is an especially clunky fit. RoJo has his limitations but Fournette really doesn't seem to do anything well at this point. 3.9 YPC and 6.1 YPR on the season with zero explosiveness. Dropping passes in the passing game. He looks cooked to me. Fournette seems ill cast in the James White role.
 

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Last time Brady had a stretch of 3 multi-INT games out of 4...2002. This is mostly just a testament to how good he was all those years.
 

Cellar-Door

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Fournette is an especially clunky fit. RoJo has his limitations but Fournette really doesn't seem to do anything well at this point. 3.9 YPC and 6.1 YPR on the season with zero explosiveness. Dropping passes in the passing game. He looks cooked to me. Fournette seems ill cast in the James White role.
Yeah, RoJo is a really good RB who can't catch. Fournette is a bad RB who also can't catch. Their GM should just straight up cut him and sign a small receiving back to ensure that the coaching staff uses their RBs correctly.
 

joe dokes

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Which is why I think Brady is going to push really hard to get McDaniels to Tampa this off-season.
Serious question, though. Why -- other than bigger $$ -- would *any* coach take the top job when they know they key to success is only going to be there for a year or two at most? I suppose he could get a 5-year deal, knwoing he's goign to get canned when the team. Biggger money is a fine reason, but TB ownership has never bee a patient lot. Seems like a 3-year gig at most.
 

Jungleland

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I was definitely wrong about Fournette. I thought the offense was held back in the first quarter of the season because they were intent on feeding RoJo when what Brady really benefits from is a versatile checkdown back. LF was essentially that in Jacksonville last year - not very good ypc wise, but made the most of his volume and was great catching passes out of the backfield. This year, he looks slow like the 2018 version of him where he simply sucked AND has stone hands. Jones is a much better player at this point and it's not close.

As for the chances for the team as a whole, they are definitely in contention, but like others here I have a hard time seeing them beat 3 out of Seattle/GB/New Orleans/KC in a row. I think their chances largely depend on their path shaking out favorably - throw one of the other NFC west teams in there, or Taysom instead of Brees, or Pittsburgh instead of KC and it becomes much more believable that they could do it.
 

BaseballJones

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Well...NO is a bad matchup for them, as they handed Tampa their asses twice already. But that was with Brees, whose career may be over. Totally different if Hill or even Winston is the QB. I'd favor Tampa in those situations.

And Tampa has already walloped Green Bay. Maybe that was a one-off weird thing, but maybe it's just a good matchup for the Bucs. KC will obviously be incredibly difficult for anyone, but of course KC has to get there first, which I'd bet will happen (I think they're the best team in football) but will still take some real work for them. And Seattle...obviously an excellent team, but they've shown huge weaknesses as well.
 

Jimbodandy

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I think we’re beginning to see why NE has a poor record of drafting receivers compared to, say, Pittsburgh which has been a huge source of frustration for fans over the years.

But as you watch Brady struggle to consistently connect with receivers that have 5-7x the raw ability of, say, a David Givens or Jabar Gaffney, my sense is that a huge piece of Brady’s success in New England was that Bill’s receiving corps (and OL) prioritized being able to read defenses and make correct decisions over athleticism and executing a particular route tree. Brady’s receivers were designed to give him many more options and, not coincidentally, a distinct advantage during those clutch two minute drills at the end of games when they needed efficient chunk yard plays and no mistakes. So instead of four guys going in four predetermined directions, it’s more like 6 or 8 options depending on the defensive playcall.

What you’re watching right now is like every receiver Brady ever struggled to connect with—Ochocinco/Galloway/Wayne—collectively (and, unlike those guys, in their prime) trying to learn this system in real time. It’s obviously much harder than it seems. The raw ability of guys like Evans, Godwin and Brown obviously make up for some of it but it may not really be possible without a system in place to coach these guys up.

Which is why I think Brady is going to push really hard to get McDaniels to Tampa this off-season.
I think that you're right on the receivers. And I think that Bill's philosophy holds at other positions as well, including on defense.

We see posts and msm pieces that highlight the Pats' deficiencies in "talent" and have for years frankly. But that usage only covers physicality and explosiveness. Bill's philosophy prioritizes decisionmaking, versatility within a position, flexibility to play different positions, and ability to absorb and execute complex systems. A guy like Givens or Branch would never be picked in a draft ahead of a Brown or Ochocinco, but the former is a great fit for what Bill demands from his offense. High pointing and fighting off corners is great shit, but it doesn't matter much if you're not where the QB expects you to be.
 

Van Everyman

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Serious question, though. Why -- other than bigger $$ -- would *any* coach take the top job when they know they key to success is only going to be there for a year or two at most? I suppose he could get a 5-year deal, knwoing he's goign to get canned when the team. Biggger money is a fine reason, but TB ownership has never bee a patient lot. Seems like a 3-year gig at most.
Because McDaniels could win a Super Bowl -- poss. multiple Super Bowls. At that point, even if his success dries up once Brady retires and he gets canned, he's still a Super Bowl-winning coach -- which should give him another opportunity thereafter.

Unless Josh really wants to wait for Bill to retire--which doesn't seem like it's happening anytime soon (and the job may go to Steve anyway)--I imagine the draw to TB would be pretty strong. Esp. given the lack of an heir apparent at QB in NE.
 

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I thought Brady looked pretty good yesterday, actually. It's hard to know who to blame the lack of being on the same page with receivers on. It could be Brady in part. It seems more likely that it's the coaching and the receivers. He and Gronk have figured it out and he seems to have a group of receivers that doesn't know quite what to do with hot reads or a QB under constant duress when the O-line doesn't hold up. I thought the sequence where he called "band" and had to walk out to Antonio Brown to tell him what that meant was basically emblematic of the whole year.

Brady and Belichick were the perfect fit. Brady and Arians is going to be a work in progress but I thought Romo was right that he's figuring it out. I think they will be better in five weeks than they are now and this is a conference that is pretty wide open. Their undisciplined play and the O-line and defense make it so that I don't think they can be a favorite in any sense but there is a lot there.

If next year is anything like a regular year, they are going to be very very good I think.
 

Cellar-Door

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I thought Brady looked pretty good yesterday, actually. It's hard to know who to blame the lack of being on the same page with receivers on. It could be Brady in part. It seems more likely that it's the coaching and the receivers. He and Gronk have figured it out and he seems to have a group of receivers that doesn't know quite what to do with hot reads or a QB under constant duress when the O-line doesn't hold up. I thought the sequence where he called "band" and had to walk out to Antonio Brown to tell him what that meant was basically emblematic of the whole year.

Brady and Belichick were the perfect fit. Brady and Arians is going to be a work in progress but I thought Romo was right that he's figuring it out. I think they will be better in five weeks than they are now and this is a conference that is pretty wide open. Their undisciplined play and the O-line and defense make it so that I don't think they can be a favorite in any sense but there is a lot there.

If next year is anything like a regular year, they are going to be very very good I think.
I have a tough time telling. There is some coaching in it, some unfamiliarity, but also.... where Tom has really fallen off is consistency. He's not like Brees where the deep ball appears gone, but at the same time it feels like anything over 10 yards is a bit of a crap shoot. Sometimes it's 2007 Brady beautiful balls, sometimes it's ducks. And even on the short throws it feels like he's making more just bad throws than usual. Next year could be better, or he could lose a bit more accuracy and zip
 

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Because McDaniels could win a Super Bowl -- poss. multiple Super Bowls. At that point, even if his success dries up once Brady retires and he gets canned, he's still a Super Bowl-winning coach -- which should give him another opportunity thereafter.

Unless Josh really wants to wait for Bill to retire--which doesn't seem like it's happening anytime soon (and the job may go to Steve anyway)--I imagine the draw to TB would be pretty strong. Esp. given the lack of an heir apparent at QB in NE.
This. There are 32 head coaching jobs in the NFL and the ones that become available usually require some level of rebuild (that you might still only get 3 years to try to implement). It's a very rare opportunity to take over as head coach of an NFL roster that has the talent to make a deep playoff run. Yeah, it would be nice to be set at QB long-term, but the Bucs job would probably be one of most attractive opportunities available this off-season if Arians gets fired.
 

DJnVa

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This. There are 32 head coaching jobs in the NFL and the ones that become available usually require some level of rebuild (that you might still only get 3 years to try to implement). It's a very rare opportunity to take over as head coach of an NFL roster that has the talent to make a deep playoff run. Yeah, it would be nice to be set at QB long-term, but the Bucs job would probably be one of most attractive opportunities available this off-season if Arians gets fired.
Josh McDaniels changed his mind on the Colts, who were anticipating Andrew Luck coming back (and he did). Granted Luck only stayed one more year, but that *seemed* like a job that was set up for a nice long run and he decided not to jump. Josh might be wired different.
 

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but also.... where Tom has really fallen off is consistency.
This is exactly it and this isn't coaching or different receivers...it's age. The back to back plays in the third where Brady throws a beautiful bomb and then on the next play leaves one way short that is picked off illustrate it perfectly. You see it in routine plays too.
 

DJnVa

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If I recall, there were also some fairly big question marks surrounding Luck’s health at the time.
Sure. There's *always* something. But Luck came back and Colts won 10 games. My point was that it wasn't a rebuilding situation like most jobs and he still didn't want to go.
 

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So, Byron Leftwich, what would you say....you do...here...?
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Silver actually says in that clip if you're Tom Brady you'd prefer to have the coach expressing his frustrations publically than having BB say nothing publically but chewing you out in private. What a clown.

Also, last week there was a tweet from Stroud- who I take as one of the better Tampa reporters- who said TB picks "some" of the plays. Which one is it then, Brucey old boy?

Edit:
View: https://twitter.com/NFLSTROUD/status/1331284516220985344
 

Van Everyman

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Lombardi weighs in:

The most interesting part of the piece is his breakdown of a sequence before halftime against the Rams recently:

The best example of this vast difference occurred last Monday night against the Rams. The Bucs had the ball at their 41-yard line, with slightly over two minutes left in the first half, with the game tied at 14. The Bucs faced a third-and-5, on which Brady completed a short pass to Antonio Brown for the first down and the two-minute warning. The Bucs had the ball at midfield, seemingly in control of the half. Coming out of the two-minute warning, Brady philosophically knows he has two objectives. The first would be to score either a touchdown or a field goal. And the second is to not allow the Rams to get the ball back with much time, as they would get the ball to start the second half. Brady has been schooled over the last 19 years on the importance of winning the middle eight (the last four minutes of the first half and first four of the second half).

Each call after the two-minute warning is critical to playing complementary football. However, not all coaches take the clock into account with their end of the half planning and rely on their defense to stop their opponent. Arians, at this point, had one objective: he wanted to score, and he figured his defense would prevent the Rams from scoring. Arians’ belief is classic football thinking and it works—at times. Brady would want to run the ball, get the clock moving, take his time, not be in two-minute or hurry-up offense, because he knows he has plenty of time to put the ball in the end zone. He wants the clock to start, to force the Rams to decide how they want to proceed, then take the play clock as far down as he can and run another control pass to continue moving the clock. Once the first down is gained and the game clock goes under one minute, Brady begins his two-minute “hurry the hell up” offense.

Arians called for a deep pass along the right sideline (remember, no risk, no biscuit), which fell incomplete and stopped the clock, thus giving the Rams another free timeout. The next play, Brady threw a one-yard pass, which got the clock moving, and then on third-and-7 threw another incompletion, which gave the Rams their second free timeout before the Bucs had to punt. The Rams got the ball back with one minute on the clock and two timeouts. They went 61 yards in that minute and kicked a field goal to go up at the half, 17-14. No big deal, right? Wrong: a huge deal. The Bucs lost the game by three, and because of their indifference to the middle eight, they allowed those preventable three points. After the game, the discussion centered on Brady’s confusion with coverage, lack of great deep ball accuracy, and wide open receivers in the passing game. No one viewed the end of the half debacle as an actual debacle, except those who understood the essence of complementary football.
 
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DJnVa

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So that article contradicts the "Brady calls the plays" article.
 

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Today at Sotheby's a signed Beckett "Playoff Contenders" Brady rookie card (number 25/100) sold at auction for around $240,000 plus I think it's a 25% buyer's premium so ~$300,000. That stuff is worth serious cash.

edit: link to auction site-


edit2 but off topic...same auction a signed Gretzky game-used rookie year game jersey sold for twice the amount of the Brady card.
 
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DourDoerr

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Is a mint/top-graded card worth more signed or unsigned? Can a signed card even be considered mint?
 

djbayko

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Is a mint/top-graded card worth more signed or unsigned? Can a signed card even be considered mint?
There's a huge difference between a card being signed-post production and a signature coming fresh out of the pack. If the card is supposed to be like that, then it can be mint, and usually worth a lot because it's a parallel card of relative scarcity. If it's not supposed to be like that, then yeah, you're damaging the card's grade and possibly devaluing the card, depending on its starting value as compared to the value of the player's signature. In any case, it's generally MUCH better to get other paraphernalia signed than sports cards. The market for privately signed sports cards is very weak. What would you rather display - a signed 2.5 x 3.5 card or a signed football?
 
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joe dokes

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There's a huge difference between a card being signed-post production and a signature coming fresh out of the pack. If the card is supposed to be like that, then it can be mint, and usually worth a lot because it's a parallel card of relative scarcity. If it's not supposed to be like that, then yeah, you're damaging the card's grade and possibly devaluing the card, depending on its starting value as compared to the value of the player's signature. In any case, it's generally MUCH better to get other paraphernalia signed than sports cards. The market for privately signed sports cards is very weak. What would you rather display - a signed 2.5 x 3.5 card or a signed football?
I'm sure there's more than just him, but Jim Palmer (I think) used to insist on personalizing all his autographs ("to Joe") because it made them less attractive on the market.