Tompa Bay: Tom Tom club
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It's very good. It's definitely not elite, not "one of the best in the NFL," and most interestingly, it's pretty lousy for Brady. The Pats finished 11th in offensive DVOA in 2019, and before that you have to go all the way back to 2003 (14th) to find a Tom Brady-led team that finished 8th or worse in offensive DVOA. This despite the fact that he's got the best set of receivers since 2007 at least. Subjective or not, I'm fine calling this offense disappointing (which is different from calling it bad). Their strength is their defense.
*edit - on Brady's personal stats, QB rating has always been an imperfect measurement of performance, but he's 17th in QB rating in 2020.
Yeah this isn't prime 2007 Brady. Nobody is saying it is. But the guy is *43* years of age. And he is playing better this year than last year. Obviously some of that is going to be attributed to the skill players he has around him. But his OL has been shaky this year in pass protection. Brady's done well to get away with only 15 sacks taken. The offense is tied for the 8th most holding penalties. They're tied for the 3rd most offensive penalties in the league, so Brady has to overcome more than other QBs do from that standpoint.
He's currently 4th in the NFL in touchdown passes. And while he's got 9 picks (a lot for him), the great Russell Wilson has 10 in 71 fewer pass attempts.
It's fine if you think the Bucs' offense is disappointing. You must have been expecting them to score like 33+ points a game or something. I was always worried about their offensive line and Brady's fit in Arians' system. So he's doing pretty much what I thought - which is a big improvement over what he was doing in 2019, yet as a player who is 43 years of age.
Brady is having a very good year. I don't understand why people are so desperate to excoriate. Yes, he's had some bad games and he's been uneven. That happens to almost every QB in the NFL.
Russ has had some terrible games. Aaron Rodgers has had a couple of really really bad games. Lamar can't throw the ball downfield. Matt Stafford has had some horrendous games. Josh Allen has had some uneven games. Obviously players like Dalton and Smith are kind of a joke, just barely hanging on and when you watch them play, you're just hoping they aren't killed.
Do you know who is perfect? Patrick Mahomes. That's it, that's the list. Every other QB has been uneven. Brady is doing quite well. He hasn't been amazing, but he's been solid and the numbers back that up. And it seems he can't play at night and that is one of his biggest problems this year. Sundowning.
I don’t think you can watch all of Brady’s games (I feel like I have? They’ve been nationally televised a ton) and conclude he’s been “very good.” The offense has been wildly inconsistent. Yes they’ve put up points in bunches but they’ve also gone incredibly long stretches completely out of sync. A good chunk of that is on him.
As for him being better than last year, as I’ve said, I think he’s looked about the same – some puzzling throws and decisions but makes mostly every throw he should. That’s actually a positive, not a negative, because he doesn’t look like he’s really aged from last year or look anything like “a 43 year-old quarterback.” His pocket presence remains elite, his mechanics are incredibly sound and his arm strength continues to be above average. There are exactly zero other 43 year-old quarterbacks in history who can say the same.
That’s the reason to be optimistic, not the bulk numbers.
As for him being better than last year, as I’ve said, I think he’s looked about the same – some puzzling throws and decisions but makes mostly every throw he should. That’s actually a positive, not a negative, because he doesn’t look like he’s really aged from last year or look anything like “a 43 year-old quarterback.” His pocket presence remains elite, his mechanics are incredibly sound and his arm strength continues to be above average. There are exactly zero other 43 year-old quarterbacks in history who can say the same.
That’s the reason to be optimistic, not the bulk numbers.
Define "Very good". He's 26th in YPA. T-16th in passer rating. 26th in completion %. T-5 most picks. He's 4th in TDs and 5th in yards, but those are partly a function of being 1st in attempts (+29 over #2 / , +45 over #3). He's been more or less league average when you take it all together in terms of pure stats. When you factor in the skill position talent I think you have to say he is underperforming expectations, although I think you do need to scale the grade a bit due to the O-line.
Every quarterback goes through stretches when they've been out of sync. Even Mahomes, who, as johnmd20 points out, is at the top of the food chain. During the first LV game this year he went from the 9:04 mark of the second quarter to late in the fourth quarter, when the offense only put up 3 points, and Mahomes went 9-23 (39.1%), for 108 yards, with an interception and 2 sacks. It happens. Wilson, Rodgers, Brees, Jackson - they've all had crappy stretches this year. Even in Brady's best years, he's always had a game or two where he was bad. In their 16-0 season, Brady had a 3 game out of 4 stretch where he had a passer rating of less than 80.
He's playing like most good QBs do - a bunch of tremendous games, a few crappers, and an overall good season.
He's playing like most good QBs do - a bunch of tremendous games, a few crappers, and an overall good season.
The important thing for Tampa Bay is where the offense is in late December and January. We knew it would take a while for Brady to mesh with his new teammates and offensive schemes. They've dealt with injuries too, and a rusty Gronk. No surprise that it's been a bumpy road.
Things might never fully mesh, especially with AB coming in late and an offensive line that seems mediocre. But if they do put it all together in January, they could be a serious handful.
Things might never fully mesh, especially with AB coming in late and an offensive line that seems mediocre. But if they do put it all together in January, they could be a serious handful.
Too many carries for Fournette, which I don't understand. He runs way too upright and never seems to make any yards after initial contact. Decent pass catcher, but every carry he gets over Jones is waste in my opinion.
Fournette has gotten 13 carries in their 5 losses. He's a weird fit as a 2nd RB and basically is terrible, but he's not really a chart toppling issue. Jones is a much better pure runner but he's a bonehead who makes dumb plays every game-- fumbles, drops, running to the wrong side of a play action fake, etc.
Shipley himself was only playing because of an injury to Ali Marpet. Marpet likely back this week, so he draws the Jones assignment (with Ryan Jensen back to C). Sucks for Shipley, but sounds like he's got a coaching gig lined up.
View: https://twitter.com/jennalaineespn/status/1333168415004127234?s=21
Tom Brady is now 1-for-21 on passes traveling 20 or more air yards since Week 8...0-for-2 on these passes today.
Brady’s inability to throw deep really hamper this vertical offense. They would be out of this world if they had someone who could go deep.
Tom Brady is now 1-for-21 on passes traveling 20 or more air yards since Week 8...0-for-2 on these passes today.
Brady’s inability to throw deep really hamper this vertical offense. They would be out of this world if they had someone who could go deep.
Pretty much every receiver in Tampa has their lowest career yards per reception this year. Most are down significantly.
That sequence with 2 straight designed plays for Fournette from 1st and goal on the 5 was so awful, like... it'll come up when discussing the coaching staff's job security after the disappointing round 1 playoff loss bad, like... "do we need to release Fournette just so Arians and Leftwich can't use him to fuck up this offense" bad
I saw some graphic that said every QB (from Luck to Winston) had career highs in interceptions in their first year in Arians' offense. If it was just Brady, I would get it, but TB12 will be the 5th QB to have a career high. That is on the coaching as much as the player(s).
For the past month or so I’ve thought Arians got a message from above that anything less than a deep playoff run and he’d be shown the door. I do think Tampa will make a play for McDaniels this off season. Arians isn’t the coach to coax a ring out of an old TB12.
So Tampa signed a QB who is not suited skill set wise at this stage of his career to run their offense; probably something they should have considered before signing him to a two year deal.
I am pretty sure that quote was from much earlier in the game. Brady has been bad with the deep ball the last few weeks, but he definitely hit a few today.
View: https://twitter.com/PewterReport/status/1333209171437760513
I hope that arians didn’t just learn this TODAY
I thought the same thing, didn't he throw a long pass with pressure in his face that the WR made a diving catch on? I think as you said he hit on another long pass later on.
Yeah, he hit Godwin. He also threw a great pass down the seam to Gronk and hit Evans in stride. It is possible one of those passes only travelled like 18 or 19 yards in the air, but regardless, they were good "deep" throws.
I mean Brady will never be Mahomes, but it is the dumb play calling - forcing a down field pass every three attempts that is the issue.
Brady now has 28 TDs and 11 interceptions. He has not been great, but he is far from the biggest issue in Tampa.
Gronkowski had over 100 yards today if I am not mistaken; is he on a one year deal and if so, do you think he'll come back/Tampa will want him back next year?
What to you think Brady does after next year, he'll be 45.............................
I think Brady at least plays out this current contract......I think the key would be if he still has the TD record. He has all the championships (and I doubt he ever wins one without BB), but he can definitely finish ahead of Brees.
So to answer your question, I think he could play another year if necessary in order to pass Brees. I personally hope he is done after this current contract and goes out with a season just like this (with a few less turnovers).
There was some smoke around this being Brees' final year, and it seems more likely now considering the rib injuries. Pretty sure the TD record for Brady is in the bag at this point.
I somewhat get it in that he wanted to keep playing, but it still is weird seeing him in that Tampa uniform...................so he retires after two uneventful years in Tampa.
The NFC is truly a mess of possibilities. The playoffs will all depend on matchups. Green Bay looks like the best team, but we've seen that movie before. Point being, the Bucs could be playing for a spot in the Super Bowl this season, which wouldn't be uneventful.
Yeah. Brady will have the TD record for about a decade until Mahomes yanks it from him.
Their offense is boom or bust and their defense struggled recently but I’m certainly not writing them off. 4 games left are Atlanta twice, Minnesota, and Detroit. They should win them all and finish 11-5. Should they finish with the 5 seed, they’ll go to the NFC East winner and should win. It wouldn’t shock me in this year’s NFC if someone seeded 6th or 7th wins a first round game and they’d get a team other than a top seeded Saints team in the divisional round. With no fans in most places, home/road isn’t going to matter as much as it used to.
Yeah anyone thinking Tampa isn't a legit NFC title contender is crazy. They definitely have a very real and legitimate chance. They lost a close one to KC, got hammered twice by NO (so that's a bad matchup for them obviously, as long as Brees is healthy...who knows with Hill), lost a close one to a very good Rams team, and then had the inexcusable loss to Chicago. But they also hammered the crap out of the Packers 38-10, and pounded a good Raiders team 45-20, so clearly they are capable of beating quality opposition.
They’re a secondary contender. This is a team that has the talent to be a top 2-3 team but doesn’t play with any level of consistency. The odds of them going on the road and winning 3 games aren’t very high, even with TB12. I think they should handle whoever they play in the WC round though.
The "road" means less this year than in any other year. In fact, it might literally mean nothing because it's entirely possible that the NFL will do the playoffs in a bubble (or a couple of smaller bubbles).
Unless things change regarding fans, I don't think being home in the playoffs will be nearly the advantage it used to be.
I think TB can beat anyone if they play well. But I doubt they can put together three good games in a row. They're just too inconsistent and Arians will get out-coached.
I think TB can beat anyone if they play well. But I doubt they can put together three good games in a row. They're just too inconsistent and Arians will get out-coached.
It’s less about the venue and more about this team not being consistent at all and then needing to play well for 3 straight weeks against at least 2 really good teams.
I’m not betting on a Bruce Arians-coached team at all. I think this is a fraudulent paper tiger team.
The Arians point is a good one. But also....they have Tom Brady, and that counts for a lot. Still.
Brady gives them a chance. I think it will be fascinating to watch. This is not a team you want to give any kind of momentum to. Teams like the Packers, Seahawks, and even Saints won’t feel that comfortable going up against him.
I also think their D is talented but incredibly undisciplined.
I would be very concerned as a Saints fan with the uncertainty around Brees’ health and arm talent, and the monkey on their back has become a gorilla with all of the excruciating playoff failures.
They really do have a very good roster, so they’re right there in the conference, but I would be nervous.
I think if Hill is their QB moving forward, NO will not run the NFC gauntlet successfully.
Fair. They’re getting by with Taysom but that’s because they’re playing crap teams, including one today that literally didn’t have a QB.
If Brees doesn’t get healthy, then all bets are off. I will say that the Saints’ D is starting to really step up.
The Bucs definitely have the talent to make it to the SB. No question there.
I'd be very concerned that my coach was more interested in proving how smart he was than in putting out a viable alternative to Brees. Hill at QB worked because they played two bad teams (one of which was starting a non-QB). Jameis is a much better QB than Hill and if they have to go to a QB other than Brees in the playoffs, they'll either have to go to Jameis or guys can start booking tee times.