2020 TB12: The Decision 2020

How Would You Feel if Brady Left?

  • Completely devastated

    Votes: 24 13.0%
  • Very disappointed but still got BB

    Votes: 84 45.4%
  • Hold my beer until we know our next QB

    Votes: 29 15.7%
  • Eh, this may turn out to be a plus

    Votes: 32 17.3%
  • Let the Stidham era begin!

    Votes: 16 8.6%

  • Total voters
    185
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BigSoxFan

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Let’s look at the teams who figure to need QBs

Miami: BFlo is there but obviously not a team ready to win. Highly unlikely.

Cincy: Burrows will be pick and no chance he goes to Cincy.

Tenn: Tannehill has played great but they would absolutely swap him out for Brady. Vrabel is there. Good team. Can’t rule them out.

Indy: Brissett is ok but always leaves you wanting more. They would absolutely take Brady but doubtful he’d be interested. Would be ultimate heel turn. Very unlikely.

Denver: Perpetually need QB. Elway would love it. But team isn’t ready to win. Unlikely.

Oakland: Close to hometown. Carr ain’t the answer. But team isn’t remotely ready to win. However, have some decent draft capital and could make themselves more attractive. Not likely but not ruling out.

Chargers: Rivers looks done. Good talent on roster. California. If he were to leave, this one does check the boxes.

Dallas: Only if Dak leaves. Good talent. Prestigious franchise. Not likely but can’t rule out completely.

Washington: Ha, nope.

Chicago: Good defense. Decent offensive talent. Big city with strong history. Can’t rule out.

Tampa: Lots of talent but need a leader. Would feel like a weird fit but Montana did go to KC. Can’t completely rule out.

So, if he were to leave, I would think the following teams would have the strongest chance:

Titans
Chargers
Bears
 

mauf

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I think TB12’s health issues are overblown, so I voted retirement. He’s self-aware enough to know he hasn’t been the same player this year that he was in the past, so I don’t put much stock in his maneuvering prior to the season to set himself up for a multi-year deal elsewhere.
 

BigJimEd

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Brady's request for no tag is to make it obvious to other teams he's serious about leaving. It's like Vinetari.
I don't remember Vinatieri having a clause in his contract. Patriots just choose not to tag him.
Quick search seems to back up my often faulty memory.
 

Dr. Gonzo

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Playing next year and puts up better numbers due to better health of other players, better health for himself, and more talent at TE and WR. He is not retiring and will never play for another team. Montana moved on because Young took his job. The Pats don’t have Steve Young and we don’t even know if Stidham is better than Vince Young at this point.

BB/TB12/RKK probably have an idea on how this story ends contract wise and my guess is Brady will want to go year to year but without the franchise tag. This gives the team flexibility cap wise as well.
 

axx

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I don't remember Vinatieri having a clause in his contract. Patriots just choose not to tag him.
Quick search seems to back up my often faulty memory.
He had to fire his agent and get another to get action because teams didn't think he was serious about leaving.
 

JMDurron

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Tom could also see this as an opportunity to further cement his greatness by doing what Montana could not and succeed with another team. Great athletes like him don't look at situations and worry about how they might fail - they're not wired like that.
The Montana comparisons come readily to mind because of the childhood hero angle, but there's another comparison to a peer and apparent friend of Brady's. Peyton Manning did leave and further cement his greatness by succeeding with another team. I don't know how much that "further cement greatness" angle weighs on Brady's mind, compared to any expected switching costs to adapt to a new organization/coach/set of WRs/OL, but it's a factor that might be highly significant to a "chip on the shoulder" guy like Brady. What does Brady have left to prove with the Patriots, ultimately? How much worse is the offensive roster in NE likely to be, and how much better is the organizational quality than in another destination?
 

Captaincoop

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I hadn't looked at the leaguewide passing numbers until today. Wow. Brady wasn't just outside of the top 10 passers. He was probably closer to 20th.

60% completions. 6.6 yards per attempt. 3/1 TD to INT ratio. There are around 10 truly awful starters who are almost as likely to turn it over as to throw a TD, so TB was better than that. But statistically he was not any better than Minshew, for example.

And he's going to be 43.

The Pats really need to move on. We saw this movie before when the Celtics waited too long to move on from Bird. It probably set them back a decade.

When we look back at Brady we will remember him only as the GOAT. He's done more than any other athlete ever in Boston (or anywhere else). It has to end sometime and it would be better ending with a pretty competitive playoff team than with what he's likely to do next year.
 

tims4wins

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I hadn't looked at the leaguewide passing numbers until today. Wow. Brady wasn't just outside of the top 10 passers. He was probably closer to 20th.

60% completions. 6.6 yards per attempt. 3/1 TD to INT ratio. There are around 10 truly awful starters who are almost as likely to turn it over as to throw a TD, so TB was better than that. But statistically he was not any better than Minshew, for example.

And he's going to be 43.

The Pats really need to move on. We saw this movie before when the Celtics waited too long to move on from Bird. It probably set them back a decade.

When we look back at Brady we will remember him only as the GOAT. He's done more than any other athlete ever in Boston (or anywhere else). It has to end sometime and it would be better ending with a pretty competitive playoff team than with what he's likely to do next year.
I think Brady is in decline. I think he was 5-10% worse than he was in 2018, when he was also a little worse than he was in 2017. But let me throw this out there:
QB A: 373-613, 60.8%, 4,057 yards, 6.6 Y/A, 24 TD, 8 INT, 3.9% TD, 1.3% INT, 88.0 passer rating
QB B: 380-628, 60.5%, 4,343 yards, 6.9 Y/A, 25 TD, 11 INT, 4.0% TD, 1.8% INT, 87.3 passer rating

QB A was Brady this year.
QB B was Brady in 2013. Remember 2013? I'll give you a hint: Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins, and Josh Boyce were getting snaps (oh and Austin Collie). Gronk only played 7 games. Vereen only played 8 games. Amendola missed a bunch of games and was banged up all year. Sounds kind of familiar.

So while I think some of the decline was due to Brady, I think more of the decline was due to supporting cast and O line health.
 

Jack Sox

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The Las Vegas Raiders could have some potential intrigue from a show time perspective. Not that they have a ton of offensive talent, but I don't really see the grass actually being greener elsewhere personnel-wise that doesn't already have the guy at QB in place.
 

Ed Hillel

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I doubt it will happen, but he’d immediately have the best weapons of his career to throw to in Tampa Bay. If Winston took care of the ball, they’d be a playoff team this year. It’s no better than 50/50 that Winston comes back.
Uhhhhhh...
 

Salem's Lot

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FWIW, Scott Zolak said on the air last week that he thinks that Brady playing for a west coast team is unlikely. His oldest son lives in New York with his mom, and being a short flight away is important to him.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
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I think Brady is in decline. I think he was 5-10% worse than he was in 2018, when he was also a little worse than he was in 2017. But let me throw this out there:
QB A: 373-613, 60.8%, 4,057 yards, 6.6 Y/A, 24 TD, 8 INT, 3.9% TD, 1.3% INT, 88.0 passer rating
QB B: 380-628, 60.5%, 4,343 yards, 6.9 Y/A, 25 TD, 11 INT, 4.0% TD, 1.8% INT, 87.3 passer rating

QB A was Brady this year.
QB B was Brady in 2013. Remember 2013? I'll give you a hint: Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins, and Josh Boyce were getting snaps (oh and Austin Collie). Gronk only played 7 games. Vereen only played 8 games. Amendola missed a bunch of games and was banged up all year. Sounds kind of familiar.

So while I think some of the decline was due to Brady, I think more of the decline was due to supporting cast and O line health.

2007 Tom Brady wouldn't have put up good numbers with the supporting cast and offensive line he had this year. 12-4. That's the number that matters. Play a home game, hopefully win it and then take your chances on getting hot.

I don't see him going anywhere next year, but of course, stranger things have happened. If he does, I look forward to the folks who were so excited to move on from him, like CaptainCoop (whose last 2,000 posts are basically shitting on Brady), explain how a 5-11 season next year, with no QB on the horizon, is better than another 10+ win team with Brady.

Here is the Pats 2020 schedule (dates have not been determined yet)

@Miami
@Buffalo
@JETS
@Kansas City
@Chargers
@Rams
@Seattle
@Houston
vs. Buffalo
vs. Miami
vs. Jets
vs. Denver
vs. Oakland
vs. Arizona
vs. 49'ers
vs. Ravens

So, they have 7 playoff teams, including the #1 seed in both conferences. They have to play both the AFC West and the NFC West, which makes the travel next year ludicrous (this year, the furthest they went was Houston), and the entire AFC East is on the upswing (Jets finished 6-2 in their last 8, Miami was 4-4 in their last 8, Buffalo is actually good).

Yeah, running a new QB out there next year should be fantastic. And if folks think they are going to lose Brady and then sign a FA QB, who will that be? A guy like Winston probably gets 25mil/year, add that to the 13.5 in Brady dead money if you don't resign him, and you're essentially committing 40mil to the QB position, which puts you in a worse spot than if you just sign Brady to 2yrs/50mil and let the heir apparent learn under the GOAT for a couple years.
 

cshea

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When did the elbow issue pop up?

Games 1-9: 65%, 2536 yards (7.14 y/a), 14 TD’s, 5 INT, 93.1 rating

Games 10-16: 55%, 1521 yards (5.90 y/a), 10 TD’s, 3 INT’s, 80.9 rating

That last stretch does coincide with better competition l. His completion percentage took the biggest hit during that stretch. He looked terrific against Buffalo but then seemed to have accuracy issues against Miami, at least in the first half.

Edit Answering my own question:

Weeks 2-3 he was on the report for a calf injury

Week 9 right shoulder

Weeks 12-15 right elbow

Took him off before the Buffalo game. Seemed to still be skating his arm around during the Dolphins game. Who knows how much these are impacting him, but 2 injury related issues on this throwing arm can’t be helping.
 
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Pesky Pole

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Playing next year and puts up better numbers due to better health of other players, better health for himself, and more talent at TE and WR. He is not retiring and will never play for another team. Montana moved on because Young took his job. The Pats don’t have Steve Young and we don’t even know if Stidham is better than Vince Young at this point.

BB/TB12/RKK probably have an idea on how this story ends contract wise and my guess is Brady will want to go year to year but without the franchise tag. This gives the team flexibility cap wise as well.
I think this already happened with Jimmy Garoppolo. Someone picked Brady over the next guy up. You could probably argue either side of this one for a while. Obviously Brady knows what really happened here and it might weigh on his decision (either way).
 

Deathofthebambino

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FWIW, Scott Zolak said on the air last week that he thinks that Brady playing for a west coast team is unlikely. His oldest son lives in New York with his mom, and being a short flight away is important to him.

Willie McGinest already publicly stated that Giselle doesn't like Los Angeles and won't live there. Got no reason not to believe him. Also, didn't the Brady's just buy a house in Connecticut? I know there was some back and forth, but I never saw Brady deny it and a bunch of outlets reported that he did.
 

tims4wins

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I think this already happened with Jimmy Garoppolo. Someone picked Brady over the next guy up. You could probably argue either side of this one for a while. Obviously Brady knows what really happened here and it might weigh on his decision (either way).
It did happen then the Pats went to the next 3 Super Bowls, won 2, and should have been a bye team again this year. No one would go back and time and wish they had kept Jimmy instead.
 

The Social Chair

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I think he leaves and struggles with another team.

The Pats schedule is brutal next year and it wouldn't be the worst idea to tank for Lawrence. Belichick would never do that though.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I still can't quite figure out why the Pats did the restructure with Brady last year.

It really just does not make any sense. They got virtually nothing out of it. They gave him a gift of $8 million and they gave him no franchise for nothing but a very modest amount of cap relief that in no way justified tacking on $8 million to next year's cap.

The only way to really understand it is if there was some sort of unspoken understanding that went along with it. The problem is trying to figure out what that might be. One way to try to parse it is that they all decided that this would be his last year here and since next year is likely to be a lost year or a year with a cost controlled quarterback, you might as well give Brady a gift of cash that you pay for next year to say thanks for everything and to make up for the prior two underpaid years. And there is some precedent to the team simply giving players gifts that it doesn't need to give them. They did this with Gronk too. And to Edelman to a much lesser extent. But tacking on $8 million? And no franchise? Or maybe it means something else completely different in a way that is difficult to figure out without having been in the room.

But unless he was threatening to sit why would you do it? I still have not seen a single answer that makes sense. There were other much less expensive ways to create cap space. They are going to end the year at $3.3 million anyway, so they really only needed 1.7 million in the end.

It is an unwritten story. Something happened. Some understanding was reached. Whatever it is I think is the key to this whole thing.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Holy shit, that road schedule. There's a lot of time till September, but it's easy to see them with a losing road record.
It's not hard to see them with a losing home record. Aside from Denver, Oakland and Arizona, none of them are gimmes, including the division games. If TB12 isn't the QB next year, and they go with Stidham, I could easily see a 4-12, 5-11 season. And that's not bad enough to get you Trevor Lawrence.
 

Super Nomario

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When did the elbow issue pop up?

Games 1-9: 65%, 2536 yards (7.14 y/a), 14 TD’s, 5 INT, 93.1 rating

Games 10-16: 55%, 1521 yards (5.90 y/a), 10 TD’s, 3 INT’s, 80.9 rating

That last stretch does coincide with better competition l. His completion percentage took the biggest hit during that stretch. He looked terrific against Buffalo but then seemed to have accuracy issues against Miami, at least in the first half.

Edit Answering my own question:

Weeks 2-3 he was on the report for a calf injury

Week 9 right shoulder

Weeks 12-15 right elbow

Took him off before the Buffalo game. Seemed to still be skating his arm around during the Dolphins game. Who knows how much these are impacting him, but 2 injury related issues on this throwing arm can’t be helping.
The second-half schedule was tougher, but probably more on the offensive side than the defensive. They faced five bottom-10 pass defenses by EPA: Miami (both halves), Houston and Cincinnati (second half), Washington and Giants (first half). They faced four top-seven pass defenses by EPA: Buffalo (both halves), Pittsburgh (first half), Kansas City and Baltimore (both second half). So tougher slate of Ds down the stretch, but not a huge difference.

Aside from listing Brady Week 9, that's also when they brought back Cody Kessler (Kessler was also on the roster Weeks 4-6). That was likely to manage Brady's pitch count in practice; Kessler has never been active for a game. Signs point to Brady not being right physically since Week 9.

(That's not a positive sign for this year or the future. Obviously we don't know if he'll be healthier as the playoffs wear on. And one of the things that happens to older players is they get hurt more and recover less quickly. A healthy Brady might still be close to vintage Brady, but how many weeks out of 16 can they count on a healthy Brady?)
 

heavyde050

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It did happen then the Pats went to the next 3 Super Bowls, won 2, and should have been a bye team again this year. No one would go back and time and wish they had kept Jimmy instead.
And I still don’t see how Jimmy G gets compared to Steve Young. He has never even come close to approaching that level of performance or pedigree.
I mean when Young got his opportunity with the 49ers he played well enough to win the job and then led the 49ers to his own SB.
Jimmy got a chance with the Pats and lasted a game and a half.

Edit - Jimmy is a good QB, but the jury is still out if he is heading to the HoF.

Edit - I should have quoted the post that this post quoted. I agree with tims that the resulting Super Bowl wins makes any revisionist history moot.
 
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Traut

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I think he retires. My reasoning is he is as competitive an athlete as we've ever seen. His skills are in obvious decline - I don't recall him ever missing high let alone several times a game. The Patriots receiving corps sucks and next year Edelman gets another year older. The only reason he'd sign elsewhere is if his goal was to play to 45 which he has stated it is.

My guess is when the dust settles this winter/spring he looks around and hangs it up.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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I think he retires. My reasoning is he is as competitive an athlete as we've ever seen. His skills are in obvious decline - I don't recall him ever missing high let alone several times a game. The Patriots receiving corps sucks and next year Edelman gets another year older. The only reason he'd sign elsewhere is if his goal was to play to 45 which he has stated it is.

My guess is when the dust settles this winter/spring he looks around and hangs it up.
This seems probable but I don't see Brady as the guy to go out that quietly, relatively speaking. Given how poorly he's been treated by the league, announcing his retirement a year in advance to force the NFL to start the praise-heaping in every telecast, even as he struggles like Manning did in his last season, would be the ultimate FU on his way out. Force them to call him the greatest ever even as he's missing by 10 yards and throwing multiple interceptions a game. It would be beautiful. Not sure if BB would go for that, though, because I'm sure he still wants to win.

If Brady's elbow isn't right ever again, he just needs to become (for his final season) a game manager, taking occasional shots at big plays. I think the receiving corps will be better next year, especially if they add by subtraction and fire Sanu into the sun.
 

BusRaker

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Really hope he plays for New England ... trying to catch the Seattle and both LA games next year once the dates are announced. Once Gronk decides to return I think it will be an easy decision for Brady (mild sarcasm)
 

NomarsFool

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Is there much chance the offensive talent is better next season? I imagine the WR corps will be Harry and Sanu again, and I get that hopefully Harry is better - but he still seems fairly underwhelming. Edelman is a legend, but he's getting pretty long in the tooth.
 

Harry Hooper

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Is there much chance the offensive talent is better next season? I imagine the WR corps will be Harry and Sanu again, and I get that hopefully Harry is better - but he still seems fairly underwhelming. Edelman is a legend, but he's getting pretty long in the tooth.
I expect there to be two legitimate TEs on the roster, and a FB as well.
 

8slim

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He comes back, the team gets him top flight WR and TE talent, bolsters our OL depth, and snares the #1 seed.

I really don’t want to contemplate any other scenario.

Brady is the greatest QB of all time. He has provided me immense joy for nearly two decades. As a 46 year old Pats fan, I never could have possibly imagined what this franchise has accomplished.

Move on? To what? And with who?!
 

staz

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The cradle of the game.
Seemed to still be skating his arm around during the Dolphins game. Who knows how much these are impacting him, but 2 injury related issues on this throwing arm can’t be helping.
When I see him flexing his elbow pregame, then airmailing receivers running 8-yard curls, yeah, there's something very wrong.
 

axx

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I'm still sticking with retirement, but I don't think anyone should blame him for leaving for another team.
 

NomarsFool

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The real "dilemma" for him is, I think what would make him happiest in the world - is success, NOT money. He has more than all the money he and his children will ever need. It would never, ever, ever happen - but the best situation for him would be to play for practically free and have the team promise to upgrade his offensive weapons. Again, it will never happen, but he'd be happiest if he did that.
 

jsinger121

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Jul 25, 2005
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The Colts and their monster offensive line would be nice. I just can't picture him in Indiana. Gisele can barely stomach living in Boston.
Also don’t see him going to the team that started deflate gate leading to his 4 game suspension.
 

bosockboy

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The Colts and their monster offensive line would be nice. I just can't picture him in Indiana. Gisele can barely stomach living in Boston.
The Raiders to me are the obvious choice if he leaves. They can move on from Carr, spend 2-3 years as the star of a shiny new nfl outpost and has a great offensive line and franchise RB.
 

Marciano490

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The Raiders to me are the obvious choice if he leaves. They can move on from Carr, spend 2-3 years as the star of a shiny new nfl outpost and has a great offensive line and franchise RB.
You think he wants his 3 kids growing up in Vegas? Have you met people from there?
 

soxhop411

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Marciano490

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They can live in LA and take a 40 min flight. Doubt that matters.
I’m just saying, he’s married to one of the most famous women in the world, and one who has curtailed some of her professional activities for the sake of their family and who also has been outspoken about her desire for him to stop. If he plays next year, it’ll be here, LA, NYC or Miami. They’re not moving to Indianapolis and they’re not splitting up the family.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Wow! FIrst time in this thread. That poll confirms Patriots fans are not ready to accept reality with nearly 75% expecting him to return here.

I've got Brady as a Charger next year. Possibly as a 3 QB swap of sorts with Rivers in Indy and Brissett back in NE or Dalton here until we draft another Jimmy G (assuming Stidham is not him).
 
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