2020 TB12: What Does 2020 Hold for 12?

What does 2020 hold for 12?

  • Retirement

  • Returns to NE, has a better year

  • Returns to NE, has a similar or worse year

  • Goes elsewhere, has a better year

  • Goes elsewhere, has a similar or worse year


Results are only viewable after voting.

NomarsFool

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Can't completely disagree although one thing that I'm not clear on (is anybody?) is what the cap hit from AB might be next year.
My understanding is that the cap hit for AB next season is $4.5 million. The Patriots are certainly going to try and get some relief from that, but if it comes, it will certainly NOT be next season, but some season in the future.

I'm sure there is some recency bias here, but my impression after this last season is that having a well functioning O-line is so vital to everything you are doing on offense, that I think I'd actually like to see them hold on to Thuney. With Andrews back (hopefully), and Thuney I think we'd see a much better run game and pass protection next season.

Could they afford a $25 million quarterback and upgrade the offense a little? They could, if they also draft a great TE and WR. It's not outside the realm of possibility, but also wouldn't call it probable. If Brady were willing to take $15 million a year and they grab a FA for one of those slots, I feel like the odds are better. I honestly don't quite understand why he wouldn't do that. I feel like his quality of life would be so much better than if he came back here at a $30 million number. He wouldn't enjoy that at all, in my opinion (because the team wouldn't be very good).

In my opinion, having a solid offensive line, getting some good weapons (TE/WR) - you can pretty much do okay with almost anyone at QB.
 

Super Nomario

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View: https://twitter.com/NBCSBoston/status/1225863384924594177


I know it's their job to stir up conversation, but for the first time this process, I don't like the sound of it.
This article:
  • 6 paragraphs admitting that Brady articles are lazy clickbait
  • 6 paragraphs of Curran saying he doesn't want to get left out of the lazy clickbait party
  • The key paragraph: "As it stands right now, very little is going on. Financial negotiations haven’t begun. None of the three principals — Brady, Belichick and Robert Kraft — know how this is going to play out."
  • 13 paragraphs of stuff we already know
  • 3 paragraphs of Curran's opinion
 

tims4wins

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This article:
  • 6 paragraphs admitting that Brady articles are lazy clickbait
  • 6 paragraphs of Curran saying he doesn't want to get left out of the lazy clickbait party
  • The key paragraph: "As it stands right now, very little is going on. Financial negotiations haven’t begun. None of the three principals — Brady, Belichick and Robert Kraft — know how this is going to play out."
  • 13 paragraphs of stuff we already know
  • 3 paragraphs of Curran's opinion
Ha - thank you for that
 

djbayko

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This article:
  • 6 paragraphs admitting that Brady articles are lazy clickbait
  • 6 paragraphs of Curran saying he doesn't want to get left out of the lazy clickbait party
  • The key paragraph: "As it stands right now, very little is going on. Financial negotiations haven’t begun. None of the three principals — Brady, Belichick and Robert Kraft — know how this is going to play out."
  • 13 paragraphs of stuff we already know
  • 3 paragraphs of Curran's opinion
Sounds like it's going to get him a lot of airtime.
 

NomarsFool

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As the above poster mentioned, to me, the best approach would be to have a very transparent conversation with Brady. You bring Brady in, you tell him that he's the GOAT and he's done incredible things for the franchise. You also tell him that you'd love to have him back, but for the benefit of everyone involved (including Brady) you want him back on a team that is a legit Super Bowl contender. "Because, really, Brady are you interested in putting yourself through another season of football for anything OTHER than a chance at a ring?"

You lay out for Brady what exactly they think it will take in salary to have a reasonable defense next year. This doesn't mean bringing everyone back - I think Van Noy is gone, but spending to basically have something half-way decent. You then tell Brady - "Look, we are willing to invest $35-$40 million in the offense next season (whatever the number is). We want to partner with you on this. If you think we should sign Thuney, or a WR, or a TE. That's fine. But our total budget is $40 million. Also, we want you to help us recruit them. You are a star in this league. Convince them to come play with you." To me, this could be very exciting to Brady. Makes him feel very engaged and part of the process. Brady's not an idiot, I just can't believe that he would think getting paid $35 million for the Pats would be fun for him. It won't.
 

BaseballJones

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As the above poster mentioned, to me, the best approach would be to have a very transparent conversation with Brady. You bring Brady in, you tell him that he's the GOAT and he's done incredible things for the franchise. You also tell him that you'd love to have him back, but for the benefit of everyone involved (including Brady) you want him back on a team that is a legit Super Bowl contender. "Because, really, Brady are you interested in putting yourself through another season of football for anything OTHER than a chance at a ring?"

You lay out for Brady what exactly they think it will take in salary to have a reasonable defense next year. This doesn't mean bringing everyone back - I think Van Noy is gone, but spending to basically have something half-way decent. You then tell Brady - "Look, we are willing to invest $35-$40 million in the offense next season (whatever the number is). We want to partner with you on this. If you think we should sign Thuney, or a WR, or a TE. That's fine. But our total budget is $40 million. Also, we want you to help us recruit them. You are a star in this league. Convince them to come play with you." To me, this could be very exciting to Brady. Makes him feel very engaged and part of the process. Brady's not an idiot, I just can't believe that he would think getting paid $35 million for the Pats would be fun for him. It won't.
If he was frustrated with the OL being a sieve (especially early on) and the WRs not being in the right place, he's not going to like it any more because he's making $30 million.

We've never seen him be after the money. I mean, don't get me wrong, he doesn't want to make league minimum. But clearly, he's always been about WINNING, first and foremost. I cannot fathom that he would suddenly now, at almost 43, be about money. There's no way he's coming back for another couple of seasons for a handful of extra million dollars. No way. He wants ring #7. He may not think NE is the place for that, I don't know. But that's what he's after. I would bet my mortgage that he'd be willing to give up some $$ in order to get a better team around him.
 

NomarsFool

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The question is, how much? I don't think $25 million instead of $30 million moves the needle.
 

kelpapa

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My understanding is that the cap hit for AB next season is $4.5 million. The Patriots are certainly going to try and get some relief from that, but if it comes, it will certainly NOT be next season, but some season in the future.
They could be getting $9MM of cap space from brown soon. Miguel tweeted this:

I expect the AB grievance to be decided/settled before 3/18 simply because the amount involved (between 9M to 10M) is so large. If Pats win and I think they will, the Pats’ cap space will increase by $9M.

If that's the case, I imagine the $4.5MM cap hit will be figured out at the same time.
 

Super Nomario

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They could be getting $9MM of cap space from brown soon. Miguel tweeted this:

I expect the AB grievance to be decided/settled before 3/18 simply because the amount involved (between 9M to 10M) is so large. If Pats win and I think they will, the Pats’ cap space will increase by $9M.

If that's the case, I imagine the $4.5MM cap hit will be figured out at the same time.
The $4.5 MM is half of the $9 MM. They just spread the bonus over two seasons with a fake second year.
 

HomeRunBaker

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My takeaway after reading through some of this thread is that many of you seem to be as much in denial about Brady leaving as you were about Betts not signing and ultimately being traded. Not referring to same posters only my in general feeling of the threads vibe. What do you feel the chances are of Tom returning as a Patriot next year......5%? 10% 20? It can’t be much more than that right?

You have two teams out West moving into new stadiums who can promise Brady greater control than he could ever have under BB. The Chargers have parted ways with Rivers while the Raiders could easily do same with Carr. Also of note......we play the Chargers in LA next season but play the Raiders IN Foxborough. Who knows what the odds are but there is a greater than zero chance that Tom Brady enters The Blade out of the visitors tunnel in 8 months. Surreal.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I think a huge difference is that Mookie wanted a big contract next (as would I, just to be clear). That, based on a lot of choices the Sox made about other players, pretty much sealed the deal with Mookie.

We really don't know Brady's priorities---does he want money? He doesn't 'need' it in the same way Mookie in theory might. Does Brady want 'control' over his situation, timeline, etc.? Does he want a commitment to prioritize winning his last couple years? Does he want to show what he can do without BB? Does he want a different location for family? We basically have no real idea which of those he prioritizes and how he prioritizes them. Without knowing those I don't know how to assess chances he stays or goes. And I have literally no idea what that % might be.
 

snowmanny

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The problem is that it makes a certain sense for him to leave or for the Pats to let him go, however you want to phrase it.. The offense is screwed up, they don't have that much money to spend and the Patriots have to transition to the future without Brady at some point. If they roll out the same players and the same system it's no good for anyone. Maybe they figure out a way to make it all work with Brady in New England for a year or two and I trust them all enough to think they might just do that -and I hope they do figure out something that works and keeps him here in a functioning offense - but on the surface it makes a lot of sense for him to go somewhere else and for the Patriots to re-do the offense with a cheaper QB.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Sure, there is no question a case for him to leave. But it all depends what he is prioritizing, right?

If he wants to win next year he is not likely to come up with a better option---simply because Belichick is here and the defense is in place. If he wants continuity offensively, he can't do better. And so forth...there's plenty of reasons he migth want to go (as you note) and also to stay. And without knowing how he prioritzes those---or how the Patriots are interacting with him (because, a possiblity is that they only want him for one year, or only on a low-dollar deal) we are just really blind here.
 

NomarsFool

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The family stuff is obviously a complete black box to us, as is whatever the personal dynamic is between him and Belichick.

I think what we can hypothesize about is that Brady wants to win, and he wants to do well. What I mean by that is that I don't think Brady would want to be on a purely defensive team. He wants to win, but he doesn't want to win 10-7 with him feeling frustrated all the time. That doesn't mean he's selfish, he just wants to be in an environment where he can contribute to the win as well. He doesn't want to be Joe Flacco (who I guess was the Superbowl MVP somehow, can't remember how that happened).

So, the question is whether there is a team out there that is well positioned to allow him to do both those things? I think he could also do those things with New England, which in many ways would be ALOT easier, but it would require him to take a lot less money, in my opinion. I just don't see how they could spend $30 million on him AND have a particularly good team AND give him some shiny new toys to play with.
 

HomeBrew1901

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The problem is that it makes a certain sense for him to leave or for the Pats to let him go, however you want to phrase it.. The offense is screwed up, they don't have that much money to spend and the Patriots have to transition to the future without Brady at some point. If they roll out the same players and the same system it's no good for anyone. Maybe they figure out a way to make it all work with Brady in New England for a year or two and I trust them all enough to think they might just do that -and I hope they do figure out something that works and keeps him here in a functioning offense - but on the surface it makes a lot of sense for him to go somewhere else and for the Patriots to re-do the offense with a cheaper QB.
This sums up my feelings exactly. If Edleman and Gronk were still in their Prime then I would be all for keeping the band back together, however, this team feels more like it's in a rebuilding phase than ready for one more run.

Yes they could pull it together for one more run over the next 2 years. Sign a legit TE, Harry & Sanu become consistent threats and Edleman goes heavy on the HGH and comes back strong as Brady's binky but the transition has to happen sometime and I think there's an easier chance for Brady to get #7 by joining a team like Tennessee that appears to be only missing Brady.

I'm not kicking him out the door but I understand if he uses it to finish out his career in a location that is just "more fun" with as good of a chance to win as here.
 

MonstahsInLeft

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Yikes!

Tom Brady will test free agency in March

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady isn’t afraid to test free agency. Bill Belichick isn’t afraid to let him. Both parties have agreed to allow the Patriots quarterback to enter free agency in March, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.
Also quotes Kraft as essentially neutral and OK with it. I think the odds of Brady coming back just dropped significantly ☹

Seems to follow the MO of letting other recent free agents see what the market is but the fact that they’ve even gotten to this point doesn’t seem like a good sign...
 

tims4wins

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Yikes!

Tom Brady will test free agency in March



Also quotes Kraft as essentially neutral and OK with it. I think the odds of Brady coming back just dropped significantly ☹

Seems to follow the MO of letting other recent free agents see what the market is but the fact that they’ve even gotten to this point doesn’t seem like a good sign...
This isn't really new news IMO. He will enter the legal tampering period, see what other teams offer. But if the Pats don't get him signed by the true start of free agency, that likely means he is gone.
 

BigJimEd

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There is absolutely nothing new in that article.


Let's not forget Patriots went 12-4 last year. Titans looked good at end if the year but let's also remember they went 9-7. Tannehill was outstanding for them so they may want to bring him back. But Henry is also a free agent and they have several other FAs as well.

As Pat's fans, we know their holes but I think we sometimes gloss over other teams.

Brady could very well go elsewhere. I wouldn't put money on him staying at this point but if he is back, there's ample reason to believe the Pats can compete the next couple years.
 

MonstahsInLeft

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This isn't really new news IMO. He will enter the legal tampering period, see what other teams offer. But if the Pats don't get him signed by the true start of free agency, that likely means he is gone.
The way I read the article Rapoport isn’t talking about the legal tampering period, but yes after the “true” free agency period with the guaranteed $13 million cap hit (ie less money for other weapons next year)

YMMV but I see that as a definite change in the odds of him returning. Then again Rapoport could be misinterpreting the intent with regard to 16th vs 18th.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I have no idea whether Kraft is or is not actually neutral, but I'm 100% certain he is smart enough to publicly/via reporter say he is this far away from the true crunch time.
 

nattysez

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If he actually makes it to full free agency (March 18 at 4p), he's gone. There is no reasonable way to make the money work at that point, since the $13.5m cap hit would then have to be taken in full this year, and the Pats are not going to take a cap hit of more than $30m for this season for one player.

Edit - I really think he's going to wind up on the Niners. It just makes too much sense for everyone involved.
 
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NomarsFool

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If he actually makes it to full free agency (March 18 at 4p), he's gone. There is no reasonable way to make the money work at that point, since the $13.5m cap hit would then have to be taken in full this year, and the Pats are not going to take a cap hit of more than $30m for this season for one player.
This gets reported a lot, but I don't think it is actually true. Things are easier before the 18th, but I remember others posting that there are clever ways of minimizing the cap hit even after the 18th. If the 18th was the end of the world, you wouldn't see the Patriots being so cavalier about him testing free agency.
 

lexrageorge

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This gets reported a lot, but I don't think it is actually true. Things are easier before the 18th, but I remember others posting that there are clever ways of minimizing the cap hit even after the 18th. If the 18th was the end of the world, you wouldn't see the Patriots being so cavalier about him testing free agency.
The Pats have to juggle paying Brady while also reloading the roster. That task becomes harder when there is $6.5M less to play with. There are only so many ways to get creative with the cap, and that $6.5M could very well matter.

I'm not in the "Brady's leaving is a done deal" camp. However, between the leaked story about the Pats being willing to pay Tom $30M/yr, and the Rap story above, I tend to think the Pats have already approached Brady's agent about the parameters for a new deal, and were politely told "thanks, but we're going to test free agency". That's a discussion that could have easily happened without Curran or any of the other local media folks knowing about it.
 

BigJimEd

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Harder since this is last year of CBA but it can be done if willing.

However, as many posters have stated, Yee and company will be talking to teams long before the 16th.

Brady should have plenty of info to make a decision by the 18th. The only possible reason I see him waiting is to see what teams do in FA but I'd guess this all shakes out by the 18th.
 

tims4wins

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Brady and Yee obviously understand that the major deals get signed at the start of free agency - the longer he waits the less certain the “weapons” he will have. If he is back to the Pats by the 18th they can build appropriately. If he waits they will have to plan for his departure accordingly. And it’s really the same for most other teams in consideration. The longer the wait the less likely they can build an offense that Brady wants.
 

lexrageorge

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And the Pats aren't going to wait multiple days for Brady to mull over multiple offers.

By all accounts, Yee is a good agent. He will know Brady's likely market value prior to the 16th. And he will then have 48 hours to confirm it. There's absolutely no scenario where Brady's 2020 destination isn't known by the 19th. And, if that scenario does come to pass, the chances of it being the Pats seem to be almost zero. The Pats could afford to let a Hightower shop himself around; I don't see them waiting around on the QB position.

And if Brady does end up coming back to NWE on a lesser deal several days after free agency because he couldn't find the offer he wanted in free agency, he should throw his agent in the dumpster before firing him.
 

EvilEmpire

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The speculation I've seen (not just here) about the 49ers, Cowboys and Raiders doesn't really make any sense to me, but who knows.

I think if Brady leaves it will be the Chargers, Bears or maybe the Colts as a dark horse (get it?). Chargers with the best chance now that Rivers has moved on.

But I think it more likely Brady doesn't leave.
 

JokersWildJIMED

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If Brady wanted to stay AND the Patriots wanted to keep him then he would be signed already. One or both of those things is missing, at least in part. Nothing in this saga would surprise me, but on the scale of things Brady returning would be the most surprising.

Glazer yesterday was adamant that Dak was going to be the QB of the future for the Cowboys, so who knows...however, signing him to the franchise tag and trading him for a #1 for their QB of the future, while signing Brady would be very much in Jerry Jones's makeup.
 

tims4wins

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If Brady wanted to stay AND the Patriots wanted to keep him then he would be signed already. One or both of those things is missing, at least in part. Nothing in this saga would surprise me, but on the scale of things Brady returning would be the most surprising.

Glazer yesterday was adamant that Dak was going to be the QB of the future for the Cowboys, so who knows...however, signing him to the franchise tag and trading him for a #1 for their QB of the future, while signing Brady would be very much in Jerry Jones's makeup.
Disagree. He wants multiple years and he wants to see what’s out there. Otherwise you could make that statement about literally any free agent ever.
 

lexrageorge

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One principle in negotiating is that there is not always a need to rush, especially if the deadline is still a few weeks away. From the Pats perspective, it matters little if they sign Brady now, or do it at 11:59 PM over a pint on the evening of the St. Paddy's Day. Brady may feel the same way. The most likely explanation is that Brady has a price to stay, and the Pats have a price they are willing to pay, and there is currently a gap. And it sometimes makes sense for both parties to wait to close that gap until there is more information available.
 

HomeBrew1901

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This gets reported a lot, but I don't think it is actually true. Things are easier before the 18th, but I remember others posting that there are clever ways of minimizing the cap hit even after the 18th. If the 18th was the end of the world, you wouldn't see the Patriots being so cavalier about him testing free agency.
Right..... because you get the best deal for the team by Kraft and Belichick getting on their knees and begging Brady to stay and that they will do all they can to sign him before the 18th. Or they can posture like Brady has been and basically say... "There's the door, don't let it hit you in the ass on the way out. Have fun being wined and dined and we appreciate your service to the Patriots the last 20 years. Good Luck Tom"

The more this goes on, the more I think he stays with the Patriots and both sides are positioning for the deal. Both sides could effectively end this like San Diego just did with RIvers.
 

pappymojo

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I don't think he goes to a team with a bad offensive line. Not sure how good these rankings are but they 'feel close' to me.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-offensive-line-rankings-following-2019-regular-season

Ranking the offensive lines.

3 Indianapolis Colts
4 Dallas Cowboys
7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8 Tennessee Titans
10 New England Patriots
14 San Francisco 49ers
15 Oakland Raiders
23 Cleveland Browns
25 Chicago Bears
29 Los Angeles Chargers
32 Miami Dolphins

I would be shocked if he signed with the Browns, Bears, Chargers or Dolphins.
 

normstalls

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Rivers to the Colts is a real possibility. There is history between Indy's OC and Rivers - he was with the Chargers from 2013-2017. If it shakes out that way, cross them off the list...of course this is all speculation. Who knows?
 

Trautwein's Degree

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The true answer is who knows.
One principle in negotiating is that there is not always a need to rush, especially if the deadline is still a few weeks away. From the Pats perspective, it matters little if they sign Brady now, or do it at 11:59 PM over a pint on the evening of the St. Paddy's Day. Brady may feel the same way. The most likely explanation is that Brady has a price to stay, and the Pats have a price they are willing to pay, and there is currently a gap. And it sometimes makes sense for both parties to wait to close that gap until there is more information available.
One thing the NFL and the Patriots and Brady are extremely great at is keeping the attention on themselves. If you are Brady and the Patriots why not get 2 months of essentially free publicity?
 

Harry Hooper

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Fauria on WEEI has Brady 99.6% gone. Thinks the Pats are done with him.
 

EvilEmpire

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I don't think he goes to a team with a bad offensive line. Not sure how good these rankings are but they 'feel close' to me.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-offensive-line-rankings-following-2019-regular-season

Ranking the offensive lines.

3 Indianapolis Colts
4 Dallas Cowboys
7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8 Tennessee Titans
10 New England Patriots
14 San Francisco 49ers
15 Oakland Raiders
23 Cleveland Browns
25 Chicago Bears
29 Los Angeles Chargers
32 Miami Dolphins

I would be shocked if he signed with the Browns, Bears, Chargers or Dolphins.
I'm sure having a good offensive line is a factor. Another is having good receivers. I suspect Brady still has confidence that he can get the ball out quick if his receiving corps is good enough. That helps him stay healthy too.
 

Bongorific

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Fauria on WEEI has Brady 99.6% gone. Thinks the Pats are done with him.
Could be. The part that gives me pause though is the lack of someone to take the helm. I thought the Patriots were planning for Brady’s eventual age decline as far back as drafting Mallet in 2011. They then spent another relatively high draft pick on Jimmy G. Now when they are going to be done with Brady, is when they haven’t invested a high pick at QB?

Maybe they needed to change course, but it seemed like this was lining up for a last 2 year deal for Brady and drafting a QB this year again.
 

Shaky Walton

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Fauria also said that the Pats don't want Brady at $15 mm.

While that sounds ridiculous to me, Fauria is going out on a pretty far limb.

That may not mean much. Or it may. Or this is the silly season.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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I'm sure having a good offensive line is a factor. Another is having good receivers. I suspect Brady still has confidence that he can get the ball out quick if his receiving corps is good enough. That helps him stay healthy too.
That, and one of those teams could say "If you come here, these are the OL guys we are going to try to sign/draft to shore that up for you."

Take MIA- they draft #5, 18, 26, 39, 56 in the first 2 rounds. They could take the top OL, then grab a WR, OG, TE and RB. Oh, and they have almost $90M in cap space if there's a veteran or two they like. Toss in a Joe Thuney/Jack Conklin and AJ Green and that situation looks a heck of a lot better.
LAC- they draft #6, 37, 71 in the first 3 rounds. They also have $48M in cap space. Resign Hunter Henry at TE to go with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Eckeler while drafting OL help and you're giving yourself a shot.
 

NomarsFool

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Haven't the Patriots communicated that they would be willing to invest $30 million in Brady? I know it wasn't an official statement or anything, but it at least seems like they put that message out there.

So, either they are at least interested in bringing him back, or they are super confident that he will get an offer well north of $30 million and accept that. That seems like a risky gamble to me. I'm certainly not at all confident in that.

If they had really written him off entirely, I think they would be planting more stories about the needs to solidify the defense, get younger, add more weapons, etc., etc. Starting building a narrative that the would love to have Brady back, but Brady alone isn't the answer to getting back to the Super Bowl. They need other pieces as well.
 

nattysez

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Haven't the Patriots communicated that they would be willing to invest $30 million in Brady? I know it wasn't an official statement or anything, but it at least seems like they put that message out there.
Rapsheet reported the $30m number and Perry and Curran have bent over backwards to say they don't buy it. Silly season.