2020 Pats: You Cam Go Your Own Way

BaseballJones

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Or even seemingly simple (nothing is actually simple in the NFL) thing of the QB making the right read pre snap and calling for the right protection.
 

Saints Rest

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Not all "completions" are "accurate." "Adjusted completeion rate" does not seem to take into account completions that can only be completed by the intended receiver stopping or turning and breaking stride.
I agree. Would be interested to compare YAC for the various QB's on that list. Obviously YAC is largely dependent on a receiver's ability to make people miss, but part of that is a QB giving the ball to a receiver in stride.
 

BaseballJones

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There might be a way to look at a QB's YAC - not his obviously, but his receivers. And it turns out that pro-football-reference does have that data, but only for the last few years. If you look at it, even though a QB's receivers change, if he consistently has better YAC numbers than other guys, that probably means it's not about the receivers, but rather that the QB has a high level of ability hitting receivers in stride, as @Saints Rest talks about.

So from 2018-2020...YAC per completion

Brady
2018: 2,234 completed air yards, 2,121 YAC, 3.9 completed air yards per attempt, 5.7 YAC per completion
2019: 2,233 completed air yards, 1,824 YAC, 3.6 completed air yards per attempt, 4.9 YAC per completion
2020: 2,022 completed air yards, 1,278 YAC, 4.3 completed air yards per attempt, 4.2 YAC per completion

Mahomes
2018: 2,489 completed air yards, 2,608 YAC, 4.3 completed air yards per attempt, 6.8 YAC per completion
2019: 2,076 completed air yards, 1,955 YAC, 4.3 completed air yards per attempt, 6.1 YAC per completion
2020: 1,884 completed air yards, 1,613 YAC, 4.5 completed air yards per attempt, 5.5 YAC per completion

Brees
2018: 2,165 completed air yards, 1,827 YAC, 4.4 completed air yards per attempt, 5.0 YAC per completion
2019: 1,488 completed air yards, 1,491 YAC, 3.9 completed air yards per attempt, 5.3 YAC per completion
2020: 1,068 completed air yards, 1,128 YAC, 3.6 completed air yards per attempt, 5.2 YAC per completion

Wilson
2018: 2,063 completed air yards, 1,385 YAC, 4.8 completed air yards per attempt, 4.9 YAC per completion
2019: 2,402 completed air yards, 1,708 YAC, 4.7 completed air yards per attempt, 5.0 YAC per completion
2020: 1,858 completed air yards, 1,358 YAC, 4.7 completed air yards per attempt, 4.9 YAC per completion

Rodgers
2018: 2,308 completed air yards, 2,134 YAC, 3.9 completed air yards per attempt, 5.7 YAC per completion
2019: 1,993 completed air yards, 2,009 YAC, 3.5 completed air yards per attempt, 5.7 YAC per completion
2020: 1,475 completed air yards, 1,625 YAC, 3.9 completed air yards per attempt, 6.2 YAC per completion

Goff
2018: 2,562 completed air yards, 2,126 YAC, 4.6 completed air yards per attempt, 5.8 YAC per completion
2019: 2,388 completed air yards, 2,250 YAC, 3.8 completed air yards per attempt, 5.7 YAC per completion
2020: 1,403 completed air yards, 1,618 YAC, 3.5 completed air yards per attempt, 6.0 YAC per completion

So what do these numbers tell us? I don't know! haha I mean for sure these other guys have had better receiving options than Brady. FWIW, Newton over the last three years has a 3.7 completed air yards per attempt, and a 5.3 YAC per completion. And this year it's 5.4 YAC per completion, which is substantially better than Brady's 4.2, and he (Cam) is getting that with much worse skill position players. I wonder how much of that is due to a handful of James White or Rex Burkhead screens that eat up huge chunks of YAC.

EDIT: Damn you, @scottyno for posting that while I was doing all this work! ;-)
 

Super Nomario

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I don't think YAC / completion is a good measure of this. Any stat like that is going to wildly swing based on outlier plays (like a screen that goes for 50 yards or a slant that goes for 75).
 

BaseballJones

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I don't think YAC / completion is a good measure of this. Any stat like that is going to wildly swing based on outlier plays (like a screen that goes for 50 yards or a slant that goes for 75).
Thats why you look at it over a long period of time. See if there’s trends.
 

DourDoerr

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Cam looked better today and ran the RPO crisply as he had done at the beginning of the season. But I didn't see any evidence of improvement on some fundamental shortcomings - the ball still seems to be taking too much time getting out and without zip. Stidham's TD throw was the best of the day by far - on a line and in stride. Without more accuracy downfield from Cam, a good team will stack the line and impose their will and our drives will stall without heroic execution. 69 yards passing obviously worked gloriously today, but I don't see that as sustainable against the better teams. I do commend Josh's commitment to the offense's strengths and the variations he did show within that narrow framework, but meanwhile the film on those tendencies continues to accumulate.
 

BroodsSexton

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There might be a way to look at a QB's YAC - not his obviously, but his receivers. And it turns out that pro-football-reference does have that data, but only for the last few years. If you look at it, even though a QB's receivers change, if he consistently has better YAC numbers than other guys, that probably means it's not about the receivers, but rather that the QB has a high level of ability hitting receivers in stride, as @Saints Rest talks about.

So from 2018-2020...YAC per completion

Brady
2018: 2,234 completed air yards, 2,121 YAC, 3.9 completed air yards per attempt, 5.7 YAC per completion
2019: 2,233 completed air yards, 1,824 YAC, 3.6 completed air yards per attempt, 4.9 YAC per completion
2020: 2,022 completed air yards, 1,278 YAC, 4.3 completed air yards per attempt, 4.2 YAC per completion

Mahomes
2018: 2,489 completed air yards, 2,608 YAC, 4.3 completed air yards per attempt, 6.8 YAC per completion
2019: 2,076 completed air yards, 1,955 YAC, 4.3 completed air yards per attempt, 6.1 YAC per completion
2020: 1,884 completed air yards, 1,613 YAC, 4.5 completed air yards per attempt, 5.5 YAC per completion

Brees
2018: 2,165 completed air yards, 1,827 YAC, 4.4 completed air yards per attempt, 5.0 YAC per completion
2019: 1,488 completed air yards, 1,491 YAC, 3.9 completed air yards per attempt, 5.3 YAC per completion
2020: 1,068 completed air yards, 1,128 YAC, 3.6 completed air yards per attempt, 5.2 YAC per completion

Wilson
2018: 2,063 completed air yards, 1,385 YAC, 4.8 completed air yards per attempt, 4.9 YAC per completion
2019: 2,402 completed air yards, 1,708 YAC, 4.7 completed air yards per attempt, 5.0 YAC per completion
2020: 1,858 completed air yards, 1,358 YAC, 4.7 completed air yards per attempt, 4.9 YAC per completion

Rodgers
2018: 2,308 completed air yards, 2,134 YAC, 3.9 completed air yards per attempt, 5.7 YAC per completion
2019: 1,993 completed air yards, 2,009 YAC, 3.5 completed air yards per attempt, 5.7 YAC per completion
2020: 1,475 completed air yards, 1,625 YAC, 3.9 completed air yards per attempt, 6.2 YAC per completion

Goff
2018: 2,562 completed air yards, 2,126 YAC, 4.6 completed air yards per attempt, 5.8 YAC per completion
2019: 2,388 completed air yards, 2,250 YAC, 3.8 completed air yards per attempt, 5.7 YAC per completion
2020: 1,403 completed air yards, 1,618 YAC, 3.5 completed air yards per attempt, 6.0 YAC per completion

So what do these numbers tell us? I don't know! haha I mean for sure these other guys have had better receiving options than Brady. FWIW, Newton over the last three years has a 3.7 completed air yards per attempt, and a 5.3 YAC per completion. And this year it's 5.4 YAC per completion, which is substantially better than Brady's 4.2, and he (Cam) is getting that with much worse skill position players. I wonder how much of that is due to a handful of James White or Rex Burkhead screens that eat up huge chunks of YAC.

EDIT: Damn you, @scottyno for posting that while I was doing all this work! ;-)
Wouldn’t this also depend significantly based on the design of the offense? A team looking downfield is going to expect greater YAC. Brady doing quick 4-6 yard pick ups (in the Patriots offense) is going to expect fewer. Or is that not right?
 

cshea

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Cam looked better today and ran the RPO crisply as he had done at the beginning of the season. But I didn't see any evidence of improvement on some fundamental shortcomings - the ball still seems to be taking too much time getting out and without zip. Stidham's TD throw was the best of the day by far - on a line and in stride. Without more accuracy downfield from Cam, a good team will stack the line and impose their will and our drives will stall without heroic execution. 69 yards passing obviously worked gloriously today, but I don't see that as sustainable against the better teams. I do commend Josh's commitment to the offense's strengths and the variations he did show within that narrow framework, but meanwhile the film on those tendencies continues to accumulate.
I'd argue the best throw of the day was Cam's second pass, a deep corner that was on the money and went right through Meyer's hands. Good read, strong accurate throw, receiver let a 25-30 yard completion go right through his hands.
 

Saints Rest

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Wouldn’t this also depend significantly based on the design of the offense? A team looking downfield is going to expect greater YAC. Brady doing quick 4-6 yard pick ups (in the Patriots offense) is going to expect fewer. Or is that not right?
My guess is the opposite.
If you have the ball on the 50, and throw a bomb into the end zone, YAC is zero. If you throw a well-executed screen, YAC will be 50+.
Furthermore, a slant is meant to travel a few yards thru the air and then pick up additional yards via YAC if you can hit the receiver in stride.
Regardless, it seems to me that most YAC is driven, either by design or by execution, with hitting the receiver in stride and in space. Button hooks and corner fades will typically have less YAC as they expect a defender close to the receiver. A screen or crossing route that gets to the receiver in the right place at the right time is expected to create some space that the receiver can leverage for Max YAC.
 

joe dokes

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I'd argue the best throw of the day was Cam's second pass, a deep corner that was on the money and went right through Meyer's hands. Good read, strong accurate throw, receiver let a 25-30 yard completion go right through his hands.
I thought the TD to Harry was good too. Much shorter, obviously, but it was on the money to a guy who was not wide open. OTOH (and to Saints rest's point just above)....He threw a screen to White at White's shins on the opening drive. Pass complete but it made it much more difficult for white to do more than eke out a short gain.
 

DJnVa

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Cam looked better today and ran the RPO crisply as he had done at the beginning of the season. But I didn't see any evidence of improvement on some fundamental shortcomings - the ball still seems to be taking too much time getting out and without zip. Stidham's TD throw was the best of the day by far - on a line and in stride.
Johnny Foxboro's backup could have hit that TD throw. Dude was wide-open in a 38-0 game with about 7 minutes left. And there was plenty of zip on the TD to Harry.

Cam's 14 runs were the most of the year outside of week 1.
 

Super Nomario

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My guess is the opposite.
If you have the ball on the 50, and throw a bomb into the end zone, YAC is zero. If you throw a well-executed screen, YAC will be 50+.
Furthermore, a slant is meant to travel a few yards thru the air and then pick up additional yards via YAC if you can hit the receiver in stride.
Regardless, it seems to me that most YAC is driven, either by design or by execution, with hitting the receiver in stride and in space. Button hooks and corner fades will typically have less YAC as they expect a defender close to the receiver. A screen or crossing route that gets to the receiver in the right place at the right time is expected to create some space that the receiver can leverage for Max YAC.
Bombs can be big YAC plays, too - if a guy gets behind the D, catches a 30-yard pass, and then runs another 40 yards for a TD, that's going to have a big effect on the YAC numbers. In a perfect world, you'd want a stat that reflected how often a pass that could have set the receiver up for YAC actually did; beyond a certain point, the actual amount of YAC is going to depend more on the receiver, and not every pass is a realistic opportunity for YAC (you mention a couple routes that typically aren't). There are so many confounding variables here, I don't think the commonly-available statistics really capture what we want them to.
 

steveluck7

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I think it would be really interesting to see a study of what types of passes are most likely to yield YAC. My hunch would be that balls that travel 15-20 yards in the air probably yield the most on average. Balls like the one to Gunner yesterday seem like the best for YAC. A crossing route, over the middle, with separation, hit (relatively) in stride. Also, the ball th=at Myers dropped was a good shot for nice yards, although that was thrown closer to the sidelines.
 

Van Everyman

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I think one thing that's been undersold in the Great Cam or Stid Debate of 2020 is that Cam is pretty close to an elite leader. Which I recognize isn't something that shows up on the stat sheet. But it's not something many people expected coming in to this season. In addition to posts here about how (perhaps surprisingly) likable and dedicated he has been in New England despite the shortcomings, there are have been stray comments in the press about how benching Cam would "lose the locker room." This is a really important point insofar as why Belichick has stuck with Cam through his obvious struggles. The guy is obviously really respected by his team and coaches -- and a critical part of getting this often ragtag group of guys to show up and execute week after week.

And shortcomings aside, yesterday showed that he really is kind of a unique weapon. As much of an outlier as this offense is in today's NFL, when this offense is cooking, opponents really struggle to stop it. Harris is tremendous, White will always be terrific (that blitz pickup yesterday was textbook) and their OL is as good as any in football. With the emergence of Byrd and Meyers in recent weeks means that defenses can't just stack a hundred guys in the box. Add in the potential contributions of Michel, Harry, the possible return of Edelman and more and more practice and ... well, who knows? The wildcard in this mix remains Cam -- who is a threat with his feet and RPO ability (that fake to Michel yesterday was outstanding) but can surprise you with dimes like that ball to Harry yesterday.

No, they're not the Chiefs in terms of talent. I know how scarred we all probably are with the Denver and San Francisco games -- as well as Houston. But you only need look at last night's KC/Denver game to know that as badly as they played against the Broncos, some of that was that the Broncos aren't as bad as their record.

Is this team likely to make the playoffs? No. But I guarantee you that nobody wants to play them. The biggest reason is, of course, Belichick. But don't sleep on Cam either. He's unpredictable, but an important piece of the mix and some of the glue that holds things together.

Edit: added the unpredictable point to the end of my post
 

Van Everyman

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@FL4WL3SS I literally just added in an edit to the end of my post at the same time you made that post -- agreed.

Listen, if by chance this team gets into the postseason, the odds are that some playoff team is going to do to them what TN did to us last year. But that Patriots team was an outlier in that they really struggled in December. This one is doing what the Patriots almost always do: round into form when things get serious -- that is as much of a Belichick hallmark as any. So you have to hope for/assume that this team will continue to improve.

What I described above--esp. the part about Harry and Edelman--is kind of the best case scenario. This isn't Kevin Millar's 2004 Red Sox who had multiple Hall of Famers ready to pitch games 5 and 6 if they survived game 4. The problem is, they have no margin for error. They pretty much need a lot of things to break right -- and The Gregg Williams Imbroglio is Exhibit A as to why that's unlikely to happen.
 

cshea

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The problem is, which Cam do we get in the playoffs? The dude is so hot and cold from game to game, he can't be trusted.
That requires getting to the playoffs. They Patriots have won 4 of 5 but aren't any closer than they were at 2-5.

Pats have to win out. I don't think 9-7 gets in, even if the loss is to the Rams and they win the 3 remaining divisional games. They have to jump 3 teams and are 2 games out of a playoff spot with 4/5 games remaining. Winning out would get them to 10-6, 8-4 conference record, 5-1 division record. They are going to need out of town help.

3. Buffalo: 8-3 @ San Fran (in Arizona), Pittsburgh, @ Denver, @ New England, Miami
4. Tennessee 8-4: @ Jacksonville, Detroit, @ Green Bay, @ Houston

5. Cleveland: 9-3 Baltimore, @ NYG, @ NYJ, Pittsburgh
6. Miami 8-4 Kansas City, New England, @ Vegas, @ Buffalo
7. Indy: 8-4 @ Vegas, Houston, @ Pittsburgh, Jacksonville
8. Vegas: 7-5 Indy, LAC, Miami @ Denver
9. Baltimore 6-5, Dallas, @ Cleveland, Jacksonville, NYG, @ Cincy
10. New England 6-6 @ LAR, @ Miami, Buffalo, NYJ

They have to jump 3 teams to get into a wild card spot. Miami looks vulnerable, but Indy/Tennessee, Vegas and Baltimore seem to have clear paths to 10 wins. They really could've used that Jets win yesterday that was stolen by Gregg Williams.

Anyways, I think winning out is a long shot. The Rams are a tough match up for the Patriots. I think the D can probably reasonable contain Goff, but the Rams have a stout defense that is top 5 against both the run and pass. That'll be tough sledding for an offense that relies so much on the run. The Patriots will probably need the D/ST to score or set up short fields for the offense.
 

Saints Rest

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That requires getting to the playoffs. They Patriots have won 4 of 5 but aren't any closer than they were at 2-5.

Pats have to win out. I don't think 9-7 gets in, even if the loss is to the Rams and they win the 3 remaining divisional games. They have to jump 3 teams and are 2 games out of a playoff spot with 4/5 games remaining. Winning out would get them to 10-6, 8-4 conference record, 5-1 division record. They are going to need out of town help.

3. Buffalo: 8-3 @ San Fran (in Arizona), Pittsburgh, @ Denver, @ New England, Miami
4. Tennessee 8-4: @ Jacksonville, Detroit, @ Green Bay, @ Houston

5. Cleveland: 9-3 Baltimore, @ NYG, @ NYJ, Pittsburgh
6. Miami 8-4 Kansas City, New England, @ Vegas, @ Buffalo
7. Indy: 8-4 @ Vegas, Houston, @ Pittsburgh, Jacksonville
8. Vegas: 7-5 Indy, LAC, Miami @ Denver
9. Baltimore 6-5, Dallas, @ Cleveland, Jacksonville, NYG, @ Cincy
10. New England 6-6 @ LAR, @ Miami, Buffalo, NYJ

They have to jump 3 teams to get into a wild card spot. Miami looks vulnerable, but Indy/Tennessee, Vegas and Baltimore seem to have clear paths to 10 wins. They really could've used that Jets win yesterday that was stolen by Gregg Williams.

Anyways, I think winning out is a long shot. The Rams are a tough match up for the Patriots. I think the D can probably reasonable contain Goff, but the Rams have a stout defense that is top 5 against both the run and pass. That'll be tough sledding for an offense that relies so much on the run. The Patriots will probably need the D/ST to score or set up short fields for the offense.
BUF and MIA play H2H. Assume for a minute that MIA wins.
Both BUF (vs. PIT) and MIA (vs. KC) have a likely loss on their schedule, giving each of them 5 losses.
If those two things occur AND NE beats both teams and wins out, that puts all three teams at 10-6. Who wins AFC East at that point?
NE would be 5-1 in division, BUF would be 4-2, and MIA would be 3-3. So I assume NE wins division?
 

azsoxpatsfan

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That requires getting to the playoffs. They Patriots have won 4 of 5 but aren't any closer than they were at 2-5.

Pats have to win out. I don't think 9-7 gets in, even if the loss is to the Rams and they win the 3 remaining divisional games. They have to jump 3 teams and are 2 games out of a playoff spot with 4/5 games remaining. Winning out would get them to 10-6, 8-4 conference record, 5-1 division record. They are going to need out of town help.

3. Buffalo: 8-3 @ San Fran (in Arizona), Pittsburgh, @ Denver, @ New England, Miami
4. Tennessee 8-4: @ Jacksonville, Detroit, @ Green Bay, @ Houston

5. Cleveland: 9-3 Baltimore, @ NYG, @ NYJ, Pittsburgh
6. Miami 8-4 Kansas City, New England, @ Vegas, @ Buffalo
7. Indy: 8-4 @ Vegas, Houston, @ Pittsburgh, Jacksonville
8. Vegas: 7-5 Indy, LAC, Miami @ Denver
9. Baltimore 6-5, Dallas, @ Cleveland, Jacksonville, NYG, @ Cincy
10. New England 6-6 @ LAR, @ Miami, Buffalo, NYJ

They have to jump 3 teams to get into a wild card spot. Miami looks vulnerable, but Indy/Tennessee, Vegas and Baltimore seem to have clear paths to 10 wins. They really could've used that Jets win yesterday that was stolen by Gregg Williams.

Anyways, I think winning out is a long shot. The Rams are a tough match up for the Patriots. I think the D can probably reasonable contain Goff, but the Rams have a stout defense that is top 5 against both the run and pass. That'll be tough sledding for an offense that relies so much on the run. The Patriots will probably need the D/ST to score or set up short fields for the offense.
Maybe we should have a thread dedicated to keeping up with playoff probabilities and stuff of that nature, but I think we might actually have a better chance at the division than a wildcard. Assuming Pats win out, they would win the division with just a Dolphins loss to the Chiefs and a Bills loss to the Dolphins and any other game
 

azsoxpatsfan

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I was writing when Saints Rest posted, but yea Pats win in that scenario. Problem would be if Bills beat Miami. Then we need them to lose tonight, against Pit, and against Broncos, because I’m pretty sure (but not certain) that the Bills and Pats can’t tie without the Bills having a better record against common opponents
 

FL4WL3SS

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Let's be honest, the chance of the Pats winning out are at about 10%.

Edit: If I'm thinking logically about this, it probably breaks down something like this:

Today: 10%
Beat LA: 25%
Beat Miami: 40%
Beat Buffalo: 85%
 

azsoxpatsfan

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Let's be honest, the chance of the Pats winning out are at about 10%.

Edit: If I'm thinking logically about this, it probably breaks down something like this:

Today: 10%
Beat LA: 25%
Beat Miami: 40%
Beat Buffalo: 85%
We kind of have to assume they win out or it makes the whole exercise pointless, but I don’t think the chances are as low as you think. Pats with playoffs on line vs. Jets with Trevor Lawrence on the line in week 17 is a Pats win. Pats vs the Dolphins and their rookie qb is a Pats win. Bills and Rams are tougher, but Pats were like ten yards away from winning in Buffalo, and are a better team now than they were then.
 

tims4wins

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We kind of have to assume they win out or it makes the whole exercise pointless, but I don’t think the chances are as low as you think. Pats with playoffs on line vs. Jets with Trevor Lawrence on the line in week 17 is a Pats win. Pats vs the Dolphins and their rookie qb is a Pats win. Bills and Rams are tougher, but Pats were like ten yards away from winning in Buffalo, and are a better team now than they were then
Alternately, there is NO SUCH THING as a guaranteed win in Miami, and the Rams and Bills are pretty close to toss-ups (at best). Maybe their expected W-L in the last 4 games is like 2.75-1.25 (1.0 for Jets, 0.75 for Miami, 0.5 for Buffalo and the Rams), but even that seems generous. In all likelihood they go 2-2, maybe 3-1.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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Alternately, there is NO SUCH THING as a guaranteed win in Miami, and the Rams and Bills are pretty close to toss-ups (at best). Maybe their expected W-L in the last 4 games is like 2.75-1.25 (1.0 for Jets, 0.75 for Miami, 0.5 for Buffalo and the Rams), but even that seems generous. In all likelihood they go 2-2, maybe 3-1.
Alternately, I want the Patriots to make the playoffs so I’m going to skew any numbers I see to make it seem more likely.

in all seriousness, of course them winning out isn’t the most likely thing, but in order to talk about what has to go right for them to make the playoffs, we gotta start with assuming they win out or it’s a pointless discussion
 

FL4WL3SS

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We kind of have to assume they win out or it makes the whole exercise pointless, but I don’t think the chances are as low as you think. Pats with playoffs on line vs. Jets with Trevor Lawrence on the line in week 17 is a Pats win. Pats vs the Dolphins and their rookie qb is a Pats win. Bills and Rams are tougher, but Pats were like ten yards away from winning in Buffalo, and are a better team now than they were then.
At best they are 50/50 to beat Buffalo alone. I'm not sure anyone would argue the percentages I laid out.
 

lexrageorge

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The problem is, which Cam do we get in the playoffs? The dude is so hot and cold from game to game, he can't be trusted.
While undoubtedly true, it is equally true that the other QB's on the roster can be trusted even less. Unless Tom Brady pulls a LeGarrette Blount and forces himself to get cut by the Bucs, the team is riding the Cam bus all the way to wherever it takes them.
 

Van Everyman

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In all likelihood they go 2-2, maybe 3-1.
They could also go 1-3 or 0-4. I mean, the Jets almost beat Vegas yesterday.

I would be shocked if they weren't ready for the Rams game. Not saying they'll win, but this is their last prime time game of the year and this team has showed up and competed for every one of those. It's the middling games against lesser opponents that they've looked shakier during.
 

cshea

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They are +6 against the Rams right now. It's going to be a very tough game for them. As I said above, I don't think it's a good match up for the Pats.
 

djbayko

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Maybe we should have a thread dedicated to keeping up with playoff probabilities and stuff of that nature, but I think we might actually have a better chance at the division than a wildcard. Assuming Pats win out, they would win the division with just a Dolphins loss to the Chiefs and a Bills loss to the Dolphins and any other game
FWIW ...

FootballOutsiders
Division: 1.8%
WC: 8.3%

538
Division: 4%
WC: 11%
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Winning four games in a row in the NFL is hard and especially so when three of the four teams are better at least record-wise and better than average on the field. Ten percent seems generous. But after the SF game I'm sort of just happy that it's even a thought that we can be entertaining and that we're already close to the holidays and still watching competitive football.
 

djbayko

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Let's be honest, the chance of the Pats winning out are at about 10%.

Edit: If I'm thinking logically about this, it probably breaks down something like this:

Today: 10%
Beat LA: 25%
Beat Miami: 40%
Beat Buffalo: 85%
I think these percentages are pretty spot on, given what we know today. As we should all be keenly aware, "Any Given Sunday". Even the Jets. Its really difficult to come up with an NFL game that is much greater than 85% likelihood of winning. Last week's Saints game against zero NFL-ready QBs is about as close as you'll get to a sure win, and it took a pandemic to give us that.

And, no, we certainly cannot chalk up a win against what is a pretty damn good Dolphins team. LAR, MIA, BUF won't be a picnic. All 3 of those games are near coin flips, and that may be slightly generous to the Patriots in a couple spots.

Edit: One more thought. Who knows what will happen between now and the Jets game too. They are 1 Jaguars fluke win away from having Trevor Lawrence clinched by Week 17, which would greatly flip their incentives. And Jacksonville has been much scrappier than their 1-11 record suggests, having near wins against Green Bay, Minnesota, Cleveland, and Houston.
 
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This deserves a split out thread

For what it's worth, I will start 'dreaming' of playoffs if they win this weekend. Until then, not looking too far ahead
 

DourDoerr

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I'd argue the best throw of the day was Cam's second pass, a deep corner that was on the money and went right through Meyer's hands. Good read, strong accurate throw, receiver let a 25-30 yard completion go right through his hands.
Meyer should have caught that. Perhaps I'm misremembering, but wasn't it a bit high? It still should have been caught and it was a good throw - just not as on the money as you'd like IIRC.

Johnny Foxboro's backup could have hit that TD throw. Dude was wide-open in a 38-0 game with about 7 minutes left. And there was plenty of zip on the TD to Harry.

Cam's 14 runs were the most of the year outside of week 1.
Didn't say it was a tough pass made under dire conditions. It was the best pass of the day for the Pats in the context of the ease and quickness in getting the ball out and for the perfect placement to a receiver moving laterally. A professional pass. After watching Cam needing to load up to get a pass out, missing high or low on wide open receivers all season, it was striking to be reminded once again how easy it should look. Yes, put Stid under pressure, tighten the score, etc. and the pass might look differently. I'm reacting to what happened.

Cam's 14 runs are another concern. Is that sustainable? I do like how he's avoiding most hits though, so he's giving himself the best chance of surviving the season.
 

E5 Yaz

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Meyer should have caught that. Perhaps I'm misremembering, but wasn't it a bit high? It still should have been caught and it was a good throw - just not as on the money as you'd like IIRC.
Nah, it was a perfect pass. No great effort needed to catch it
 

DourDoerr

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I stand corrected.

But 1-2 passes that impress out of 19 PA might be indicative of his current abilities and why the passing game might continue to struggle. Where are the sideline comeback routes? The back shoulder throws? His physical limitations are the O's limitations. I will concede that those 1-2 throws are a step up and maybe we're seeing the beginnings of a return to health that might enlarge the playbook.
 
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OldeBeanTowne

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Now that we've seen the wildcat with Cam split out wide, how long before we see him lined up at TE with Stidham at QB?
 

Super Nomario

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I stand corrected.

But 1-2 passes that impress out of 19 PA might be indicative of his current abilities and why the passing game might continue to struggle. Where are the sideline comeback routes? The back shoulder throws? His physical limitations are the O's limitations. I will concede that those 1-2 throws are a step up and maybe we're seeing the beginnings of a return to health that might enlarge the playbook.
Cam's hit plenty of sideline comeback routes to Byrd. That's most of Byrd's catches on the season, probably. They have not done much back shoulder stuff, probably because Byrd is the only receiver who plays outside consistently and he is a smurf.
 

chilidawg

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Let's be honest, the chance of the Pats winning out are at about 10%.

Edit: If I'm thinking logically about this, it probably breaks down something like this:

Today: 10%
Beat LA: 25%
Beat Miami: 40%
Beat Buffalo: 85%
According to the Athletic they also have a 2.5% chance at a top ten pick. Could go either way, but I'm loving the way the kids are playing and think it's great for them to get some high consequence game experience.

https://theathletic.com/2228598/2020/12/07/nfl-draft-order-projections/
 

Saints Rest

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According to the Athletic they also have a 2.5% chance at a top ten pick. Could go either way, but I'm loving the way the kids are playing and think it's great for them to get some high consequence game experience.

https://theathletic.com/2228598/2020/12/07/nfl-draft-order-projections/
Looking back over the last 3 drafts, we have:
  • 7 Starters (2018: Wynn, Bentley, Izzo; 2019: Wino, Harris, Bailey; 2020: Onwenu)
  • 6 Rotation guys/key subs (2018: Michel; 2019: Cowart, Harry; 2020: Dugger, Uche, Jennings)
  • 6 Bench guys (2019: Williams, Stidhman; 2020: Asiasi, Keene, Herron, Maluia)
  • PLus a couple on IR, PS: (Rohrwasser, Cajuste)
 

soxhop411

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Say what we will about his season on the field, but I've really enjoyed his personality off the field and with his teamates

View: https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/1336321695817199618
Yah. He is a great quote

View: https://twitter.com/DougKyed/status/1336319982528057344

“@DougKyed: Cam Newton: ”Like I said, it’s not the sexiest thing to see a quarterback throw for 69 yards.“”
That’s the physical and nutritional side. As for the mental side, Newton says he works in meditation and lucid dreaming, a form of dreaming where an individual is aware they are dreaming.

“I’m so big into tapping into a visualization side meditation,” Newton said. “Lucid dreaming trying to manifest things. You’ve kind of gotta tap into that side, to see yourself winning. If you know that side of you, then nothing else can affect you. This is up to you to paint your own picture on your canvas.”
https://www.masslive.com/patriots/2020/12/patriots-qb-cam-newtons-gameday-rituals-include-lucid-dreaming-breaking-vegan-for-pregame-meal.html
 

ShaneTrot

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I really like Cam as a person and a teammate. He certainly brings some energy.

I wonder where he would be if one of these rookie TEs contributed anything. He really utilized Olsen during his Carolina years. I know TE is a tough position for a rookie to contribute at and the 2020 Pats draft class has been very good but these guys are contributing nothing.