2020 Pats: Roster & Beyond (non-QB edition)

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Ok so ideal world with all things considered, they trade Thuney to a contender that has a good young guard with upside, but who isn't a pro-bowl level guy yet. Thuney solidifies them for their championship aspirations, while the Pats get a cheap young guy with potential, and clear up a lot of cap space.

Or how about this trade:

NE gives: G Thuney, 7th round pick (or 6th)
TB gives: G Marpet, TE Howard

Thuney is better than Marpet. Thuney is a top 3 or 4 guard in the NFL. He ranked #5 by PFF last year, but other rankings have him higher than that. But Marpet is good. Not Thuney-level good, but good. He's just 27 so he has good years left as well.

Marpet is signed for the following costs:
2020: $11m cap hit
2021: $10.6m cap hit
2022: $10.4m cap hit
2023: $10.6m cap hit

Thuney will cost more than that, obviously. But probably not crazy more. Probably about $4 million a year more.

OJ Howard's cost:
2020: $3.5m cap hit

So basically the teams would come out even in 2020 in terms of cap hit. TB improves at G, perhaps by a pretty decent amount. Brady gets a guy that he's super comfortable with and trusts. They also add a draft pick as well. The Patriots get a very legit replacement for Thuney on a reasonable deal, plus a massive upgrade at TE, for one year at least.
 

Super Nomario

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Thuney is better than Marpet. Thuney is a top 3 or 4 guard in the NFL. He ranked #5 by PFF last year, but other rankings have him higher than that. But Marpet is good. Not Thuney-level good, but good. He's just 27 so he has good years left as well.
What other rankings?

Thuney finished well behind LG leader Quentin Nelson, who received 44/50 All Pro votes. He got three votes, tying for second at LG with Joel Bitonio. RG is much more competitive right now, with Zack Martin, Marshal Yanda (now retired), Brandon Brooks, and David DeCastro. Thuney was not one of the 4 AFC guards named to the Pro Bowl roster (Yanda, Nelson, and DeCastro, with Bitonio injury replacement), and four NFL guards also made the team (Martin, Brooks, Brandon Scherff, and Trai Turner). And last year was Thuney's best year. Any given year, Thuney might be anywhere from the 4th to the 15th best guard in the NFL, behind Nelson, Martin, and DeCastro and in a class with Bitonio, Brooks, Scherff, Turner, Andrew Norwell, Andrus Peat, Rodger Saffold, Richie Incognito, Kevin Zeitler, etc. ... and Ali Marpet. And, for that matter, Shaq Mason, who was the Patriots guard that Pats fans were homerishly claiming was one of the 3-4 best in football last offseason.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Total additions by the Pats - draft picks, UDFAs, and free agents (additions only, not re-signing their own players):

26 total

Draft picks (10)
S Kyle Dugger, Lenoir-Rhyne
LB/Edge Josh Uche, Michigan
LB/Edge Anfernee Jennings, Alabama
TE Devin Asiasi, UCLA
TE Dalton Keefe, Virginia Tech
K Justin Rohrwasser, Marshall
G Michael Onwenu, Michigan
T Justin Herron, Wake Forest
LB Cassius Maluia, Wyoming
C Dustin Woodard, Memphis

UDFAs (16)
QB J'Mar Smith, Louisiana Tech
QB Brian Lewerke, Michigan State
RB JJ Taylor, Arizona
TE Rashod Berry, Ohio St
TE Jake Burt, Boston College
WR Will Hastings, Auburn
WR Isaiah Zuber, Mississippi St
WR Jeff Thomas, Miami
WR Sean Riley, Syracuse
DT Courtney Wallace, Louisiana Tech
DT Bill Murray, William & Mary
DE Nick Coe, Auburn
DE Trevon Hill, Miami
LB De'Jon "Scooter" Harris, Arkansas
LB Kyahva Tezino, San Diego St
CB Myles Bryant, Washington

Free Agents (8)
LB Brandon Copeland
FB Dan Vitale
S Adrian Phillips
DT Beau Allen
WR Damiere Byrd
WR Marquise Lee
S Cody Davis
QB Brian Hoyer

So by position:

Offense (18)
QB - 3
RB - 1
FB - 1
WR - 6
TE - 4
C - 1
G - 1
T - 1

Defense (15)
DE - 2
DT - 3
LB/Edge - 2
LB - 4
CB - 1
S - 3

Special Teams (1)
K - 1
P - 0


Overall, I think they've done really well, adding talent across the roster, especially in the ares of need. I know that losing Brady is huge, and maybe as Stidham goes, so the team will go. But they've more than replaced the other guys they've lost, IMO, and gotten a lot younger and more athletic in the process. A lot.
 
Apr 24, 2019
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Definitely younger and more athletic. This year was just going to be a rebuild no matter what, especially considering the lack of cap room. I think they made a decent dent in what had become an iffy (and old) roster, but while I’m looking forward to seeing BB “in the lab,” I think the roster remains in need of a lot more work. It’s just going to take another season, off-season and draft before all the holes are adequately plugged, if the goal is to be a serious contender. Can’t wait.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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I'd love a big-time receiver, but I don't think that's happening. I said it in another thread, but I'll repeat it here: I think health is a big if, but if they have good health at WR, their WR group should be pretty decent.

Edelman is still excellent.
Sanu has always been a good, solid receiver his whole career. Injuries really impacted his effectiveness last year.
Harry was a first round pick for a reason. He has great RAC ability, good hands, and can get after the ball.
Lee has undeniable talent. Health has really been his main issue. So he's a huge IF in that department.
Byrd is fine as a #5 receiver.

I also think they've added some interesting WRs as UDFAs.

At RB, adding Vitale at FB is huge, and though I'm not sure they needed any more RBs, I'm very interested in Taylor and thing he could be a contributor.

The TE group received a nice boost with the two draftees and two UDFA signings.

The OL actually didn't get much help, but they're getting Andrews - perhaps their most indispensable offensive lineman - back. And Wynn hopefully will be healthy.

On the DL I like Beau Allen, and I'm intrigued by Coe. Worlds of talent, and we'll see if BB can get him motivated. Trevon Hill...also talented but problematic.

The LBs received a huge boost, IMO, with the drafting of Jennings and Uche. Copeland was also a solid vet free agent.

In the secondary, I loved the Phillips signing and I am very intrigued by Dugger. I also think Bryant is a player who definitely has a legit shot at making the roster.

I think the kicker is good and it's nice he can kick in bad weather. Assuming his tattoo doesn't derail him, they may have shored up a horrible weakness from last year.
 

cornwalls@6

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The influx of speed, athleticism, and upside playmaking potential to the defensive side of the ball is definitely the story of this off season that intrigues me the the most. That, and hoping at least one of the drafted tight ends can be an impact player. I'd still like to see them add a veteran TE if at possible before the start of the season. Beyond that, let's hope this completely irregular off-season doesn't impede Stidham's development too badly. It's obviously way too soon to know whether he is the answer long term, or if Bill views him as such. But I'm really kind of excited to watch this unfold, to watch Bill and Co. coach this roster up, and keep building it over the next couple of years.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Yep me too. And FWIW, even as the OL got stronger, here were Brady's numbers the last 9 games of the year (including the playoff game), 5 of which were home:

193-341 (56.6%), 2,015 yds, 5.9 y/a, 11 td (3.2%), 5 int (1.5%), 78.5 rating

During that time frame, the Pats went 4-5.

The defense should be top-5 again. The OL should be improved, just with the return of Andrews and another year of development for Wynn. The TE position has GOT to be much improved. They have a functioning fullback again. Is it unreasonable to think that Stidham could put up a better rating than Brady did over those last 9 games?
 

cornwalls@6

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Yep me too. And FWIW, even as the OL got stronger, here were Brady's numbers the last 9 games of the year (including the playoff game), 5 of which were home:

193-341 (56.6%), 2,015 yds, 5.9 y/a, 11 td (3.2%), 5 int (1.5%), 78.5 rating

During that time frame, the Pats went 4-5.

The defense should be top-5 again. The OL should be improved, just with the return of Andrews and another year of development for Wynn. The TE position has GOT to be much improved. They have a functioning fullback again. Is it unreasonable to think that Stidham could put up a better rating than Brady did over those last 9 games?
That's a reasonable question. Because I don't think all of the offensive issues last year were due to a poor supporting cast. I think a lot of it will hinge on the assumption that Edelman will be here, and be heathy and productive. The receiver group, without him, would be pretty shaky.
 

BigSoxFan

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That's a reasonable question. Because I don't think all of the offensive issues last year were due to a poor supporting cast. I think a lot of it will hinge on the assumption that Edelman will be here, and be heathy and productive. The receiver group, without him, would be pretty shaky.
Agreed. I had a longer post in the other thread but I feel like the WR group lacks that explosive vertical WR that almost every team has. This group with Gronk at TE would be just fine. Without Gronk, I feel like too much will once again be placed on Edelman’s shoulders. Harry showing up and looking like his ASU self next year would be a godsend.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Agreed. I had a longer post in the other thread but I feel like the WR group lacks that explosive vertical WR that almost every team has. This group with Gronk at TE would be just fine. Without Gronk, I feel like too much will once again be placed on Edelman’s shoulders. Harry showing up and looking like his ASU self next year would be a godsend.
Yeah, I'm sorry I didn't respond to your post in the other thread - got lost in my shuffle. But I'll do it here.

I agree, there's no scintillating talent at WR for the Pats. No dynamic deep guy. But they have solid players. Edelman, when healthy, gets open against anyone. Sanu is solid - his whole career shows that. The only blemish on his entire resumé was his last stretch with the Pats, when we know he was on a bad ankle. Otherwise he's been good his whole time in the league.

It really would help if Harry lives up to his first round pick status. A TON. Because he *could* be a scintillating player. If Lee can stay healthy, he has a ton of ability too. Would be lovely if one of the UDFAs steps up and becomes a real find.
 

BigSoxFan

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Yeah, I'm sorry I didn't respond to your post in the other thread - got lost in my shuffle. But I'll do it here.

I agree, there's no scintillating talent at WR for the Pats. No dynamic deep guy. But they have solid players. Edelman, when healthy, gets open against anyone. Sanu is solid - his whole career shows that. The only blemish on his entire resumé was his last stretch with the Pats, when we know he was on a bad ankle. Otherwise he's been good his whole time in the league.

It really would help if Harry lives up to his first round pick status. A TON. Because he *could* be a scintillating player. If Lee can stay healthy, he has a ton of ability too. Would be lovely if one of the UDFAs steps up and becomes a real find.
Yup. I feel like there’s a path to success but it involves better WR luck than we generally enjoy. I definitely am glad they are looking at other PR options. Edelman needs to be WR and nothing else. One thing I won’t discount is that Harry going from Brady, a guy who didn’t really trust him, to Stidham could be a net positive. I really hope he and Stidham can start something big. Fresh slate. Go get it, N’Keal.
 

Cellar-Door

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Yep me too. And FWIW, even as the OL got stronger, here were Brady's numbers the last 9 games of the year (including the playoff game), 5 of which were home:

193-341 (56.6%), 2,015 yds, 5.9 y/a, 11 td (3.2%), 5 int (1.5%), 78.5 rating

During that time frame, the Pats went 4-5.

The defense should be top-5 again. The OL should be improved, just with the return of Andrews and another year of development for Wynn. The TE position has GOT to be much improved. They have a functioning fullback again. Is it unreasonable to think that Stidham could put up a better rating than Brady did over those last 9 games?
Some of those yes, some probably no.
The TD% I think yes, 36 of the 42 QBs who threw at least 100 passes last year had a better number, and I think there is an extent to which Brady didn't take chances last year, more willing to not make a play than risk a mistake.
Conversely, only 11 QBs had a better INT%, and I don't expect Stidham in his first year as a starter to break into that group. Young QBs make mistakes.
YPA and comp%. again I think Stidham almost has to be higher 40 of 42 QBs were last year, and the 2 below it were Blough and Rosen backups with under 200 PA.

My guess is what we'll see from Stidham is more picks, but also more agressiveness going downfield. If we don't I would guess he heads to the bench.

Edit- another reason I think we will see higher percentages is that Stidham is going to be far more willing to tuck and run instead of throwing it away. Reduces attempts and incompletions
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Yup. I feel like there’s a path to success but it involves better WR luck than we generally enjoy. I definitely am glad they are looking at other PR options. Edelman needs to be WR and nothing else. One thing I won’t discount is that Harry going from Brady, a guy who didn’t really trust him, to Stidham could be a net positive. I really hope he and Stidham can start something big. Fresh slate. Go get it, N’Keal.
A name I haven't talked about is Meyers. He and Stidham had really really nice rapport during the preseason last year. I know...preseason. But it showed that Stidham liked throwing to him and Meyers caught everything thrown at him. He could flourish.
 

Super Nomario

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Overall, I think they've done really well, adding talent across the roster, especially in the ares of need. I know that losing Brady is huge, and maybe as Stidham goes, so the team will go. But they've more than replaced the other guys they've lost, IMO, and gotten a lot younger and more athletic in the process. A lot.
This is laughably optimistic. They lost their two leading sack guys last year and two of their best defensive players in 2019 in Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins. They replaced them with two rookies where we'll see? The front seven is definitely weaker on paper than it was.

And while it's tempting to look at Andrews and Develin returning and Wynn and Harry having better health, etc., stuff happens every year. Yeah, if all the bad stuff from last year doesn't happen and a bunch of other good stuff does happen, they'll be in great shape. Not realistic though. They got 16 games of Edelman, but he's turning 34. Their three best defensive players (Gilmore, DMac, and Hightower) will all play the season on the wrong side of 30. Thuney's was their best offensive player in 2019; he might not even be on the roster if they can't work out an extension. And there's no guarantee either Andrews or Develin will return.

My guess is what we'll see from Stidham is more picks, but also more agressiveness going downfield. If we don't I would guess he heads to the bench.

Edit- another reason I think we will see higher percentages is that Stidham is going to be far more willing to tuck and run instead of throwing it away. Reduces attempts and incompletions
Stidham probably also will take a lot of sacks. He took 9 in the preseason last year, and it's a common struggle for young guys. Brady took a ton in 2001 even though he never took many after, Cassel took a ton in 2008 even though Brady took very few in 2007 or 2009, etc. And scrambling often leads to sacks, as guys get pulled down trying to make something happen rather than just throwing it away. Sacks aren't as bad as interceptions, but this offense has zero big play potential and is going to rely on steady, mistake-free execution to generate first downs and move down the field. Putting an unproven quarterback in that kind of offense with a suspect receiver group ... whew. I'm not getting my hopes up.

Agreed. I had a longer post in the other thread but I feel like the WR group lacks that explosive vertical WR that almost every team has. This group with Gronk at TE would be just fine. Without Gronk, I feel like too much will once again be placed on Edelman’s shoulders. Harry showing up and looking like his ASU self next year would be a godsend.
Harry needs to be more than what he was at ASU, because he was awful against press in college and they have basically no alternative at X receiver. He's going to need to pick up a new skill here. Arguably the offense last year was six guys who should have all been playing in the slot, and they didn't address that at all.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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This is laughably optimistic. They lost their two leading sack guys last year and two of their best defensive players in 2019 in Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins. They replaced them with two rookies where we'll see? The front seven is definitely weaker on paper than it was.
Collins was great the first half of the year and was mediocre at best the second half of the year. And it's not just that they added two rookies. They added Copeland too, who is a fine pro.
 

Super Nomario

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Collins was great the first half of the year and was mediocre at best the second half of the year. And it's not just that they added two rookies. They added Copeland too, who is a fine pro.
Copeland signed for the veteran minimum. He has as many sacks in his entire career (7.0) as Collins had in 2019.
 

BigSoxFan

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Fair point on Harry. Essentially, I like Harry in the Sanu role. I think he’s a steady WR3 and a good red zone target. Not sure he’ll ever be more than that given his issues getting separation. Not sure why they placed 1st round value on his skill set but what’s done is done. In the end, I just don’t see many playmakers on this offense. You have a bunch of solid/steady guys but nobody that really causes much heartburn for DCs. We don’t necessarily need all the answers this year but Edelman/White will need to be replaced soon and Sanu is probably done after this year as well. The WR group needs a major re-vamping and in such a loaded draft, I was hoping for more there.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I'm not quite as pessimistic as SN, but it's hard to feel like the team is in the same position it was last year, either.

My biggest concern is not the defense--where I think they got faster although not better given the big contributions of Van Noy (I think they can replace Collins' overall contribution). They still have an elite secondary, and while the line isn't great they have youth there and Belichick has been pretty consistent in getting production out of the kinds of pieces they have. I don't think it's a dominant defense, but I can easily believe it's top 10.

The offense really worries me. They were bad the second half of last year and they downgraded QB significantly. Even if we assume TE gets an upgrade from 3rd round rookies (realistic given how poor the baseline is), and we project more from the WR based on experience for Harry/Meyers and a full season from Sanu, and we assume the RB bounce back some as a group (perhaps with Harris showing something?) there's neither any offensive identity nor any true playmakers in sight (though I have a little bit of hope for Harry---some flashes along the way). The line is uncertain---I could imagine anything from above-average to disaster. But a second-year QB with limited weapons AND no real offensive identity is not an appealing combo. I have a lot of faith in BB and more in McD than some, but they have some real work to do to get this group to have some kind of identity and then execute consistently. I'd bet on bottom-half of the league offensive production unfortunately...and being among the 6-8 worst is not out of the question though i suspect they'll coach and develop their way ahead of that neighborhood.

Some of the beat writers have noted similarities to the 2001-2002 offense. Obviously, the QB is a big element of that and a huge unknown right now. For all the things Weis didn't do well as a coach later, he did a good job with that team keeping it within itself---a lot of screens, play-action, working off the run, using gimmicks to change things up. McD has not generally had the patience Weis showed with those teams and while I think that offensive philosophy is what this team should have, I kept waitng last year for them to see it and they never did.

Vegas set the over/under at 8.5 or 9 which tells you what the market believes.
 
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BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Copeland signed for the veteran minimum. He has as many sacks in his entire career (7.0) as Collins had in 2019.
I know he did. He's also been a starter for two straight years for the Jets. Not the '85 Bears, but still, a legitimate NFL starter. And you don't need me to tell you that sacks are hardly the measure of a linebacker.

They also will play Bentley more, and he has shown a fair amount of promise.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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The OL, unless there's a rash of injuries, shouldn't be anything close to a disaster. If they are healthy and intact, the group of Wynn, Thuney, Andrews, Mason, and Cannon is one of the better lines in all of football. If, if, if, I know, but that's true even if they added an all-pro on the OL. IF *that* guy stays healthy....etc.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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I know he did. He's also been a starter for two straight years for the Jets. Not the '85 Bears (though they were the #7 defense in yards allowed this past year), but still, a legitimate NFL starter. And you don't need me to tell you that sacks are hardly the measure of a linebacker.

They also will play Bentley more, and he has shown a fair amount of promise.
 

PedroKsBambino

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The OL, unless there's a rash of injuries, shouldn't be anything close to a disaster. If they are healthy and intact, the group of Wynn, Thuney, Andrews, Mason, and Cannon is one of the better lines in all of football. If, if, if, I know, but that's true even if they added an all-pro on the OL. IF *that* guy stays healthy....etc.
I agree there's a lot of potential there. The "best case" is indeed a good line as I said above. But the entire line is uncertain...as is the depth...and that's an issue. Espeically post-Dante. If, say, Mason, Cannon, and Thuney were coming off good years and you were just worried about Andrews' health and Wynn's development that would be one thing. But even the one guy who was outstanding last year is uncertain for 2020, because there's reason to think he may be traded. I don't mean to be down on it as a unit--it's the best offensive unit sadly---but it's not a sure strength either
 

RetractableRoof

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I understand the pessimism on offense, there's no threat at WR to speak of - except Julian being able to get open to move the chains. But...

I so think it's easy to look past how bad last year was - especially late. They had almost zero at fullback (Roberts was better than I expected, but still), and certainly no reliability. They got almost nothing from the TE group (Watson was just a shell of his old self, which is a shame given how much of a good guy he is). If nothing else, the impact on blocking for the running game, and the ability to give the QB another beat was almost completely missing. I don't think that is an unreasonable assessment. Add to that the damage to the OL, and the lack of cohesion there. Watching the games late in the year, I was almost cheering after every offensive play "at least Brady didn't get sacked". That's not even counting what the WRs did or didn't provide. Sanu was playing on mostly one leg. Edelman was dinged up. Harry was in the doghouse, Meyer was benched, Gunner was invisible when he wasn't returning. Who am I missing? Towards the end of the year, Defensive Coordinators must have been licking their chops...

Given that, doesn't the offense this year HAVE to be better?
  • OL: Andrews still hasn't to get onto the field, so we can't just project him as back. But if he does get back, that's a decent bump even if he isn't at the same level. Wynn has the whole year. They've drafted some depth. Not sure about Thuney, though I hope they can work something out that doesn't kill the cap. I'm thinking the OL is decent this year, and I'm not expecting any more than that. I think my biggest concern about the OL is the coach.
  • They will at least have a FB on the roster, and whatever time teams have to get him to be able to get up to speed. Some is better than none - as long as the FB doesn't get the QB maimed failing to pick up a blitz.
  • They will have at least 2 TEs that can block on the roster. Not to say they won't get beat, and/or abused as rookies, but they've got enough size to at least prevent every play from being a jail break for the defense. Add to that, the ability to get out and catch an occasional ball or two, and there is decent potential here - even looking at it worst case.
  • Whatever they get from the WR will be a bonus over what they got the last part of the year. I think Harry/Meyers do have some rapport with Stidham as mentioned above. Sanu will presumably be playing with both legs and not on ST. Edelman will be healthy to start the year. I think Edelman will get some version of the late Amendola rest protocol - no reason to be playing every down if there are others than can carry some of the slot burden. That's not to discount some of the WRs they've traded/signed as UDFA, etc. I'm not sure of the potential because I've not seen much of any of them, but with the better blocking from the OL, TE positions, they will at least have a fighting chance of getting open - and if the QB has a bit more time - then the impact of Harry getting through press coverage slowly isn't going to be as critical.
I think the non-WR group size/blocking improvements are going to allow McDaniels to open up the playbook a bit more by scheme - some of the twin tower TE sets, a heavy backfield, that kind of thing. If the WRs bring anything at all really, I think the Pats offensively could be lower middle of the pack. If they can use power to gain a few more short distance (3rd and 2, 4th and 1) type conversions than last year, and keep the Pats defense off the field a little bit (and fresher), it could be decently fun team to watch. That said, I don't gamble for a reason... :D
 
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Is there any reason to think that the offensive philosophy/scheme as run (more basically, conservatively) by first year starter Brady and the Pats in 2001 is not as suitable to today’s NFL? I realize it’s the “same” system, but it has evolved over the decades, and I wonder if it’ll be as easy as “Well, all we really need from Stidham is xyz like in 2001,” and there’s a way through to some decent level of success, however unexpected, just as we got unexpectedly in 2001. I’m genuinely asking. Is there a sense of the league having moved on, making that baseline, even if executed to the same degree that TB12 did way back when, not nearly as effective or even relevant?

edit wording
 

Justthetippett

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I think the way they're constructed, this team is likely to be in a lot of close, ugly games. Brady was obviously able to win a ton of those early in his career; we'll see if Stidham or whoever the QB1 is able to do the same.
 

Cellar-Door

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One thing also is... the offense is probably not going to be at all the same in terms of what they run. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them add some RPO, and lean more heavily on play action.
Also have to think we run more 21 personnel, ran it only 17% of plays last year (vs. 33% in 2018), not having fullback and H-back options hurt badly last year. Between the TEs we've added and adding Vitale, we should be able to avoid a situation like what happened last year where we basically lost the ability to really run one of the more effective formations for us.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think the way they're constructed, this team is likely to be in a lot of close, ugly games. Brady was obviously able to win a ton of those early in his career; we'll see if Stidham or whoever the QB1 is able to do the same.
Agreed. I think we’re going to see a conservative offensive approach assuming the defense can adequately replace the LBs. Based on the draft we had, I’m hopeful in that regard.

The offense is surely going to look different from what we’re used to. Stidham and Brady are obviously different players and the personnel has some new pieces. I’ll be curious to see if we get anything from Damien Harris this year. If we see the same Sony, I’d expect to see Damien get some run.

Finally, the kicking game will be even more important this year. Given the types of games we’ll likely be playing this year, Rohrwasser has a real chance to be an American History X-Factor this year for the Pats.
 

nighthob

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Stidham probably also will take a lot of sacks. He took 9 in the preseason last year, and it's a common struggle for young guys. Brady took a ton in 2001 even though he never took many after, Cassel took a ton in 2008 even though Brady took very few in 2007 or 2009, etc. And scrambling often leads to sacks, as guys get pulled down trying to make something happen rather than just throwing it away. Sacks aren't as bad as interceptions, but this offense has zero big play potential and is going to rely on steady, mistake-free execution to generate first downs and move down the field. Putting an unproven quarterback in that kind of offense with a suspect receiver group ... whew. I'm not getting my hopes up.

Harry needs to be more than what he was at ASU, because he was awful against press in college and they have basically no alternative at X receiver. He's going to need to pick up a new skill here. Arguably the offense last year was six guys who should have all been playing in the slot, and they didn't address that at all.
I agree with this, I don’t see how this isn’t a bottom ten offense. They could go the Derrick Henry route if they had a back capable of carrying that load, but they don’t. They don’t have any receivers capable of stretching the field, their big upgrade offensively was a pair of third round picks, and they’ve seriously downgraded the QB spot. They’re going to be on the wrong side of a lot of 24-13 games.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,096
Just a reminder for those recalling the Patriots teams from the early 2000's. Below is where the Pats scoring offense ranked during the 2000-04 era:

2000: 25th in NFL
2001: 6th
2002: 10th
2003: 12th
2004: 4th

The offense during the winning years was at least better than league average, if not top 10. So, yes, like those teams, this version of the Patriots will be relying a lot more on their defense. However, I don't see a path to a winning season with the offense they have now. If all lines up well (Stidham has an unexpected breakout year, WR corps stays healthy while seeing growth from Harry and Myers, running game returns to form with OL changes and new tight ends), perhaps they get into the middle of the pack. If there is a season, I will be excited to watch just to see what happens; I mean, the 2001 Pats were a big unknown as well, as was the 2003 team to some extent. But if I were putting bets down, I'm betting the under.

I'm not criticizing the team's draft; it's unlikely the team's draftees will have a significant impact on the upcoming season anyway. The team's defense desperately needed to get younger via organic growth. The difference between a WR available in the 6th or 7th round and one available via UDFA is probably not that great. The rebuild will probably take multiple seasons, and picking a WR or QB in the 2nd round was probably not going to change that timeline very much given the obvious holes on defense.
 

JokersWildJIMED

Blinded by Borges
SoSH Member
Oct 7, 2004
2,742
This all comes down to Stidham...the reason the Pats offense was top 10 during 2001 -2004 was Brady...they had some decent role players and Troy Brown and Kevin Faulk were excellent, but it was the QB play, whenever they needed it most, that put those teams over the top. The 2020 team has the same ingredients...decent role players on offense with potential breakout stars, solid defense (No Seymour though), and of course the coach. Belichick obviously believes that Stidham has what it takes to get them there in his system...the Pats were 5-5 on 11/18/2001, and I suspect something similar halfway through 2020.
 
Apr 24, 2019
1,278
I'm sure we all remain aware of this, and I do see it mentioned here and there, but it's worth reminding ourselves that the schedule the team is facing in 2020 is pretty brutal. That's what always brings me down to Earth.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
I don't expect Stidham to be great this year. Heck, let's be honest...none of us even know if there's going to be a season this year. But if there is, I don't expect him to be great or maybe even good. But I do expect him to show enough that in a couple of years he can be a very good NFL starter. I think he has the tools for that. In the meanwhile, does he have enough to keep the Patriots afloat? Very difficult schedule. Very difficult. And that will be problematic. I think the defense will be fine. Probably not #1 in the NFL, but top 5-7 I would expect. Special teams are excellent. Offensive line should be very good. RBs are fine. I love the JJ Taylor signing and hope that he can actually contribute. TEs should be much improved. That alone will help immensely. They'll have functioning play from the FB position. And though I get why others here are much more pessimistic than I am, I think the WR corps should be better than last year. Improved health. Additions to the roster. If Jeff Thomas can be reeled in, he brings electric talent to the position that people here have been longing for.

So can Stidham be good enough to manage this team to a winning record against that schedule? Don't know, but I'm pretty excited to find out.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
53,840
The OL actually didn't get much help, but they're getting Andrews - perhaps their most indispensable offensive lineman - back. And Wynn hopefully will be healthy.
It's worth noting that Cajuste and Froholdt are coming back too.
 

Zososoxfan

Member
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Jul 30, 2009
9,209
South of North
BB's draft strikes me as a big departure from previous years. The strategy has almost been BPA and value, but this year it seems like the strategy was to address roster holes (OL, TE, DE, LB) with as many bullets as possible. This includes Dugger, who seems to be a pretty clear candidate to try and fit into the Chung hybrid S/LB role.

While I think it's difficult to extrapolate this to BB's feelings about the team's overall ability to win games, it does signal to me that BB didn't think this team could compete this year or in the next couple of years without addressing these problems. BB is also smart enough to consider allocation of cap space by position and may have determined that these are positions where getting cheap production is a high priority. Or perhaps that these were deep positions in the draft this year, so value could be found.

But as others have said WR, OL performance, and QB make the offense a big question mark. I agree that this offense does not have top 10 potential and that the ceiling is likely a ball control and efficient offense that can let the D do the heavy lifting. The D should be very good again--the secondary is elite, the LBs should be good and could be very good depending on HT's health/aging, the edge has a lot of interesting guys, but I'm not totally sold on the DT rotation.
 

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)

T&A
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Feb 9, 2010
5,302
Providence, RI
I think the folks here putting the OL down as a strength are overly optimistic. Offensive Tackle really concerns me. Wynn has played 8 games in two years. You can say that his injuries are unrelated and he wasn’t injury prone in college and that’d be true. But he is still a very inexperienced player. Cannon has played through a lot of injuries and has proven himself to be one tough SOB. I respect that greatly. But he is entering his age 32 season. Counting on him to be there for all 16 games seems way too optimistic.

The top backup is Cajuste. A player with zero NFL snaps. He is an intriguing prospect but he was a 3rd round pick because he is no sure thing. The guy is a developmental project that has missed a full year and is now going to have no mini-camp and likely a truncates training camp.

Their cap space limited ability to get depth at tackle and another rookie/project from the draft probably wasn’t going to dramatically change things. So they are sort of stuck at OT. But I don’t know how anyone can look at a depth chart of Wynn, Cannon, Cajuste and think it’s a strength and not a ticking time bomb.
 

mwonow

Member
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Sep 4, 2005
7,095
I think the folks here putting the OL down as a strength are overly optimistic. Offensive Tackle really concerns me. Wynn has played 8 games in two years. You can say that his injuries are unrelated and he wasn’t injury prone in college and that’d be true. But he is still a very inexperienced player. Cannon has played through a lot of injuries and has proven himself to be one tough SOB. I respect that greatly. But he is entering his age 32 season. Counting on him to be there for all 16 games seems way too optimistic.

The top backup is Cajuste. A player with zero NFL snaps. He is an intriguing prospect but he was a 3rd round pick because he is no sure thing. The guy is a developmental project that has missed a full year and is now going to have no mini-camp and likely a truncates training camp.

Their cap space limited ability to get depth at tackle and another rookie/project from the draft probably wasn’t going to dramatically change things. So they are sort of stuck at OT. But I don’t know how anyone can look at a depth chart of Wynn, Cannon, Cajuste and think it’s a strength and not a ticking time bomb.
Not disagreeing, but it's at least possible that you have to add Thuney to the tackle depth list - the Pats invested draft capital in interior OL and might see sliding Thuney outside and playing a backup G as a reasonable alternative to keeping Thuney at G and slotting Cajuste in
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
34,460
I think the folks here putting the OL down as a strength are overly optimistic. Offensive Tackle really concerns me. Wynn has played 8 games in two years. You can say that his injuries are unrelated and he wasn’t injury prone in college and that’d be true. But he is still a very inexperienced player. Cannon has played through a lot of injuries and has proven himself to be one tough SOB. I respect that greatly. But he is entering his age 32 season. Counting on him to be there for all 16 games seems way too optimistic.

The top backup is Cajuste. A player with zero NFL snaps. He is an intriguing prospect but he was a 3rd round pick because he is no sure thing. The guy is a developmental project that has missed a full year and is now going to have no mini-camp and likely a truncates training camp.

Their cap space limited ability to get depth at tackle and another rookie/project from the draft probably wasn’t going to dramatically change things. So they are sort of stuck at OT. But I don’t know how anyone can look at a depth chart of Wynn, Cannon, Cajuste and think it’s a strength and not a ticking time bomb.
Most teams don't even have good starters at tackle nevermind decent backups. I think we're so used to the O-Line being near the top of the league that we see a disaster in having just an above average one.
 

j44thor

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
10,961
I think the folks here putting the OL down as a strength are overly optimistic. Offensive Tackle really concerns me. Wynn has played 8 games in two years. You can say that his injuries are unrelated and he wasn’t injury prone in college and that’d be true. But he is still a very inexperienced player. Cannon has played through a lot of injuries and has proven himself to be one tough SOB. I respect that greatly. But he is entering his age 32 season. Counting on him to be there for all 16 games seems way too optimistic.

The top backup is Cajuste. A player with zero NFL snaps. He is an intriguing prospect but he was a 3rd round pick because he is no sure thing. The guy is a developmental project that has missed a full year and is now going to have no mini-camp and likely a truncates training camp.

Their cap space limited ability to get depth at tackle and another rookie/project from the draft probably wasn’t going to dramatically change things. So they are sort of stuck at OT. But I don’t know how anyone can look at a depth chart of Wynn, Cannon, Cajuste and think it’s a strength and not a ticking time bomb.
Not to mention the biggest loss on the OL Dante. Last time we didn't have Dante the OL was a train wreck, that could have been part personnel related but regardless bringing in a new OL coach on top of everything else isn't going to be easy.
 

Super Nomario

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Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
I know he did. He's also been a starter for two straight years for the Jets. Not the '85 Bears, but still, a legitimate NFL starter. And you don't need me to tell you that sacks are hardly the measure of a linebacker.

They also will play Bentley more, and he has shown a fair amount of promise.
Copeland started in 2018, but he finished 19th on the Jets in defensive snaps last year. In part because he missed four games with a suspension and in part because he's a marginal starter, not a "legitimate starter," and the Jets got better players to play more so he could play less. He's a fine flyer for depth, let's not make him into something he's not.

BB's draft strikes me as a big departure from previous years. The strategy has almost been BPA and value, but this year it seems like the strategy was to address roster holes (OL, TE, DE, LB) with as many bullets as possible. This includes Dugger, who seems to be a pretty clear candidate to try and fit into the Chung hybrid S/LB role.

While I think it's difficult to extrapolate this to BB's feelings about the team's overall ability to win games, it does signal to me that BB didn't think this team could compete this year or in the next couple of years without addressing these problems. BB is also smart enough to consider allocation of cap space by position and may have determined that these are positions where getting cheap production is a high priority. Or perhaps that these were deep positions in the draft this year, so value could be found.

But as others have said WR, OL performance, and QB make the offense a big question mark. I agree that this offense does not have top 10 potential and that the ceiling is likely a ball control and efficient offense that can let the D do the heavy lifting. The D should be very good again--the secondary is elite, the LBs should be good and could be very good depending on HT's health/aging, the edge has a lot of interesting guys, but I'm not totally sold on the DT rotation.
Need has always been a part of their formula, usually with a two-year view. E.g., Dugger might not play much on D this year, but he can contribute in 2021 with McCourty / Chung getting up there. This year the needs were more immediate since they had very little cap space to address their holes in free agency.

I think BB recognized that this team has too many holes to address in one draft and is letting some prior investments play out. They drafted Harry (and signed Meyers / traded for Sanu), Williams, Harris, Cajuste, Stidham, and Cowart last year - and didn't add any draftees at any of those positions. At IOL (Froholdt) they did, but only late. Edge (Winovich) too, but that was an obvious need with so many losses over the past two seasons (Collins / Van Noy this offseason; Flowers / Clayborn the year prior). The positions they did select (S and TE especially), they had ignored for a while. They're going to be relying on young guys throughout the roster this year. Probably a good number of them will be bad, but they can address that next offseason.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
Copeland started in 2018, but he finished 19th on the Jets in defensive snaps last year. In part because he missed four games with a suspension and in part because he's a marginal starter, not a "legitimate starter," and the Jets got better players to play more so he could play less. He's a fine flyer for depth, let's not make him into something he's not.
Anyone who starts for two straight years on any NFL team is a legitimate NFL starter. Is he better than Van Noy? Obviously not. But he's part of the group that will replace Van Noy and Collins.

Hightower, Copeland, Bentley, Uche, Jennings

I'm ok with that group for now. I get that you're way more pessimistic than I am.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
I think the folks here putting the OL down as a strength are overly optimistic. Offensive Tackle really concerns me. Wynn has played 8 games in two years. You can say that his injuries are unrelated and he wasn’t injury prone in college and that’d be true. But he is still a very inexperienced player. Cannon has played through a lot of injuries and has proven himself to be one tough SOB. I respect that greatly. But he is entering his age 32 season. Counting on him to be there for all 16 games seems way too optimistic.

The top backup is Cajuste. A player with zero NFL snaps. He is an intriguing prospect but he was a 3rd round pick because he is no sure thing. The guy is a developmental project that has missed a full year and is now going to have no mini-camp and likely a truncates training camp.

Their cap space limited ability to get depth at tackle and another rookie/project from the draft probably wasn’t going to dramatically change things. So they are sort of stuck at OT. But I don’t know how anyone can look at a depth chart of Wynn, Cannon, Cajuste and think it’s a strength and not a ticking time bomb.
The OL is a strength, provided good health (that caveat can be said about any team at any position of course). Wynn was good when he played. Thuney is great. Andrews is great. Mason is great. Cannon is 32 but is still a fine player.

There just aren't that many teams that have as good an OL as that group of five guys right there. Depth might be an issue, but I don't think it's a stretch to suggest that Bill will shore that up.