2020 Pats: Roster & Beyond (non-QB edition)

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,386
Thanks for the clarification/explanation.

Your final point is the crux of the issue ie, repeat offender.
Yes "repeat offender". But this is nonsense. Spygate was truly a minor offense, but it was fine for NE to be punished for it, as they did break the rules. The penalty was WAY over the top harsh, however, which made it seem like it really was a massive deal.

Deflategate was a complete and utter travesty of justice and a colossal joke to human reason. It was completely made up by the NFL. Yet the Pats got crushed for it, and it added to the "repeat offender" status.

So then, when they came to the Bengals situation, "repeat offender" - based on a way overblown violation and a completely made up "violation" - cost NE a third round pick. If, say, Tampa Bay, had videoed as NE did in the Bengals situation, it wouldn't have warranted any penalty whatsoever.

And of course, if NE does something again, it will now be *three* violations by these "repeat offenders" when really, it's just one minor, overblown violation (Spygate).
 

esasky's vertigo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
23
Lost in the Supermarket
The team never should've been punished for the Bengals/Doc shoot, and if you ever want to believe that the league has it out for the Pats, this is all the evidence you need. It was a NOTHING story, and a non-event, and should NEVER in a million years gotten that far. It also had NOTHING at all to do with football.

It is what it is, and they chose not to fight it, and that's fine. But the whole thing is insane. And the fact that now there's talk they let the Titans slide as they were holding up the entire league is... nuts. It would not have happened if the Patriots were at fault here.

(It's also what made me sign up for an account here, so I've been waiting on this. But this case is insane and will drive me crazy for the rest of my life...)
 

Cotillion

New Member
Jun 11, 2019
4,926
Thanks for the clarification/explanation.

Your final point is the crux of the issue ie, repeat offender.
No it isn't the crux. As repeat offender is ignored all the time.

Ravens, Seahawks are the two examples I know off the top of my head. I am sure there are more. So it's just another bullshit justification, and we do a disservice by reflexively just saying "yeah they got what they deserved cause repeat offender".
 

54thMA

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2012
10,154
Westwood MA
Yes "repeat offender". But this is nonsense. Spygate was truly a minor offense, but it was fine for NE to be punished for it, as they did break the rules. The penalty was WAY over the top harsh, however, which made it seem like it really was a massive deal.

Deflategate was a complete and utter travesty of justice and a colossal joke to human reason. It was completely made up by the NFL. Yet the Pats got crushed for it, and it added to the "repeat offender" status.

So then, when they came to the Bengals situation, "repeat offender" - based on a way overblown violation and a completely made up "violation" - cost NE a third round pick. If, say, Tampa Bay, had videoed as NE did in the Bengals situation, it wouldn't have warranted any penalty whatsoever.

And of course, if NE does something again, it will now be *three* violations by these "repeat offenders" when really, it's just one minor, overblown violation (Spygate).
What they were accused of doing during Spygate was less over WHAT they did (filming the opposing teams sideline) vs WHERE they did it from (opposite sideline vs the press/coaches boxes). The memo stated you could not film from the sidelines; Belichick owned it and admitted the mistake.

Deflategate was a 5 million dollar witch hunt which turned up no rock solid evidence, no smoking gun, just that "Brady was generally aware of the footballs being tampered with", more nonsense.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
90,025
Oregon
When this thread has new replies, I keep expecting to see ... well, i dunno ... something about the 2020 Roster Non-QBs ... not the the gazillionith rehashing/whining/moaning about the various NFL penalties against the Patriots.

Please, for the love of all that is holy, start a new thread if you want to rehash that shit and not infest thread after thread with it.

Thank you
 

54thMA

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2012
10,154
Westwood MA
No it isn't the crux. As repeat offender is ignored all the time.

Ravens, Seahawks are the two examples I know off the top of my head. I am sure there are more. So it's just another bullshit justification, and we do a disservice by reflexively just saying "yeah they got what they deserved cause repeat offender".
The Ravens, Seahawks or anyone else did not dominate the league for 20 years, resulting in 18 division titles, 20 years of winning records, 9 trips to the Super Bowl and 6 wins; if you can't beat them on the field, then do what you have to do to try to level the playing field off of it.

The other owners are behind whatever punishment the Patriots were handed, Goodell was just the messenger.

It's pure and utter BS.
 

54thMA

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2012
10,154
Westwood MA
When this thread has new replies, I keep expecting to see ... well, i dunno ... something about the 2020 Roster Non-QBs ... not the the gazillionith rehashing/whining/moaning about the various NFL penalties against the Patriots.

Please, for the love of all that is holy, start a new thread if you want to rehash that shit and not infest thread after thread with it.

Thank you
Sorry...........I won't say anymore to take the thread off topic.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,299
deep inside Guido territory
According to Schefter, the Patriots has trade talks regarding Le’Veon Bell. He does not say if the Jets called them or not, but if the Pats initiated them then the interest is there. As he comes cheap now I’d take a shot on him.
 

vadertime

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
1,600
Rhode Island
Unless he'd come in for the veteran minimum, I want no part of Bell. He's looked cooked since his holdout from 2 years ago, and RB tend to fall off a cliff when they do lose it. And there's also the issue of the mindset of a person that would holdout for an entire season and put themselves over the team not fitting in with the whole culture the Pats have created.
 

Over Guapo Grande

panty merchant
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2005
4,461
Worcester
I believe...maybe it was from the Jest thread, that they (Jests) called every team in the league about a trade. So, I am sure the Pats talked to them about him....but it probably ended after "We'll take LeVeon and next years 3rd rounder for a 7th rounder"
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
90,025
Oregon
"Le’Veon ... you'll come here, and be part of a rotation ... we don't use a No. 1 back ... and James White is our No. 1 option out of the backfield ... and "

Yeah, that'll go over well
 

timelysarcasm

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2010
1,362
Los Angeles by way of Roxbury
And there's also the issue of the mindset of a person that would holdout for an entire season and put themselves over the team not fitting in with the whole culture the Pats have created.
I don't understand this. RBs are treated like fungible JAGs, and the Steelers rode Bell hard and put him away wet for many years. Their careers are also super short. I can't blame him for wanting to maximize his value on his last/only big contract. Hold outs are a part of that. In hindsight, obviously he should have taken the deal the Steelers offered, but that's irrelevant to the fact that RBs especially should exert whatever leverage they have as soon as possible. Expecting football players to put a team (owned by billionaires, run by execs who will cut them in a cocaine heartbeat) above their future is just disingenuous. No rational person would expect it in any other realm.

I also disagree with that characterization of what the Patriots' culture actually is. Not to mention we signed Antonio Brown, he of the streaming the lockerroom antics, which kind of bunks that theory in general.

That being said, I would take a cheap flyer on Bell if he was willing because it can't hurt. I suspect he'll go somewhere with more of a chance to re-establish his value, but who knows.
 

Phil Plantier

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 7, 2002
3,419
Davis was only on the practice squad for a day before the Pats signed him. Just served a 4-game suspension for performance enhancers, so maybe he's a better player now?

Had a season-ending ankle injury in the 4th preseason game of his second year (2016). At best, he's been a rotational player (28% of snaps in 2017).

Interesting signing at a position of weakness. I wonder if the Pats see something or if the team is at the warm body (aka Steven Jackson) level of desperation at DT.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
Davis was only on the practice squad for a day before the Pats signed him. Just served a 4-game suspension for performance enhancers, so maybe he's a better player now?

Had a season-ending ankle injury in the 4th preseason game of his second year (2016). At best, he's been a rotational player (28% of snaps in 2017).

Interesting signing at a position of weakness. I wonder if the Pats see something or if the team is at the warm body (aka Steven Jackson) level of desperation at DT.
Probably more the latter. Beau Allen is still on IR, Byron Cowart was taking the NT reps, but he is on the COVID list, so they needed another guy.
 

EL Jeffe

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 30, 2006
1,314
Brandon Copeland is out for the year with a torn pec. I'd say this opens up an opportunity for Josh Uche to finally get some run, but I have the nagging feeling that Cassh Maluia will probably get the call instead because special teams.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
Was talking to a few of you about this last night.

Look, when you compare us vs Pitt drafting WRs it's imo a bad argument.

Since 2014 the Patriots have draft 1 WR in the first 3 rounds, Harry at 32. That's it.

Since 2014 the Steelers have drafted: Dri Archer 97th, Sammie Coats 87th, Juju 62nd, James Washington 60th, Diontae Johnson 66th, and Chase Claypool 39th.

6 vs 1. True, 3/6 hit so far but that's still a 50% bust rate. If you want to develop a position you should take multiple cracks at it. This is the same thing SuperNomario mentioned about tight ends. Speaking of tight ends they have drafted 2 of them days 1-2, Asiasi at 91 and Keene at 101 since they took Gronk.

With WR BB didn't invest draft picks or free agent dollars in the position. The biggest move he made was for a year rental of Cooks. You can bring in low-cost free agents but their rate of materializing into anything other than depth is what you'd expect from low-cost options: low.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,094
Was talking to a few of you about this last night.

Look, when you compare us vs Pitt drafting WRs it's imo a bad argument.

Since 2014 the Patriots have draft 1 WR in the first 3 rounds, Harry at 32. That's it.

Since 2014 the Steelers have drafted: Dri Archer 97th, Sammie Coats 87th, Juju 62nd, James Washington 60th, Diontae Johnson 66th, and Chase Claypool 39th.

6 vs 1. True, 3/6 hit so far but that's still a 50% bust rate. If you want to develop a position you should take multiple cracks at it. This is the same thing SuperNomario mentioned about tight ends. Speaking of tight ends they have drafted 2 of them days 1-2, Asiasi at 91 and Keene at 101 since they took Gronk.

With WR BB didn't invest draft picks or free agent dollars in the position. The biggest move he made was for a year rental of Cooks. You can bring in low-cost free agents but their rate of materializing into anything other than depth is what you'd expect from low-cost options: low.
All true and we all can quibble about this but the simple reality is that this roster now has a bunch of #3-#5 WRs. The entire group needs an overhaul like it did after 2006. Obviously, the big difference being that we don’t have an elite QB in his prime to help out.

Next year, the Pats are basically going into the offseason needing a #1 AND a #2 WR. That is quite daunting when you factor in the other holes on the team.

The 2020 draft just feels like a big miss on that front. Guys like CeeDee Lamb and Jeudy were within earshot with a trade up. Justin Jefferson was picked 1 spot ahead of us and could have easily been had.

Aiyuk, Higgins, Claypool, and Shenault were all picked after us. None of those guys are world beaters but they all look better than what we have.

They need to figure this position out.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
All true and we all can quibble about this but the simple reality is that this roster now has a bunch of #3-#5 WRs. The entire group needs an overhaul like it did after 2006. Obviously, the big difference being that we don’t have an elite QB in his prime to help out.

Next year, the Pats are basically going into the offseason needing a #1 AND a #2 WR. That is quite daunting when you factor in the other holes on the team.

The 2020 draft just feels like a big miss on that front. Guys like CeeDee Lamb and Jeudy were within earshot with a trade up. Justin Jefferson was picked 1 spot ahead of us and could have easily been had.

Aiyuk, Higgins, Claypool, and Shenault were all picked after us. None of those guys are world beaters but they all look better than what we have.

They need to figure this position out.
I made this point on Twitter last night, but look at the 49ers. They hit a home run with Deebo Samuel last year, but did they rest on their laurels? No, they took Aiyuk in the first this year. Meanwhile we drafted Harry, got almost nothing out of him as a rookie, and decided to keep all our eggs in that basket in 2020.

Eschewing the draft market for WRs made sense when we were snapping up FA bargains left and right, but things have gotten expensive, and you really need 3 or 4 good pass catchers nowadays. They should be taking more bites at the apple.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,094
I made this point on Twitter last night, but look at the 49ers. They hit a home run with Deebo Samuel last year, but did they rest on their laurels? No, they took Aiyuk in the first this year. Meanwhile we drafted Harry, got almost nothing out of him as a rookie, and decided to keep all our eggs in that basket in 2020.

Eschewing the draft market for WRs made sense when we were snapping up FA bargains left and right, but things have gotten expensive, and you really need 3 or 4 good pass catchers nowadays. They should be taking more bites at the apple.
Agree 100%. It’s a passing league and we just don’t have the weapons. It’s like an NBA team not having enough 3 point shooting in 2020.

Needed to spend more draft capital in 2016-2018 when it was clear that the GRONK era was approaching the end and with Edelman’s age getting up there.

The real kick in the nuts was the 2017 draft when we sandwiched Rivers and Garcia around Chris Godwin. In 2018, James Washington, DJ Chark, and Michael Gallup all went after we wasted the Duke Dawson pick. Ouch.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,386
I made this point on Twitter last night, but look at the 49ers. They hit a home run with Deebo Samuel last year, but did they rest on their laurels? No, they took Aiyuk in the first this year. Meanwhile we drafted Harry, got almost nothing out of him as a rookie, and decided to keep all our eggs in that basket in 2020.

Eschewing the draft market for WRs made sense when we were snapping up FA bargains left and right, but things have gotten expensive, and you really need 3 or 4 good pass catchers nowadays. They should be taking more bites at the apple.
I dunno, it's so weird. Just seems like BB can't seem to successfully draft the WR position. Here's the full list of WR draftees under BB for the Pats:

2002
2nd round, #65 - Deion Branch
7th round, #253 - David Givens

2003
2nd round, #45 - Bethel Johnson

2004
5th round, #164 - PK Sam

2006
2nd round, #36 - Chad Jackson

2008
5th round, #153 - Matthew Slater

2009
3rd round, #83 - Brandon Tate
7th round, #232 - Julian Edelman

2010
3rd round, #90 - Taylor Price

2012
7th round, #235 - Jeremy Ebert

2013
2nd round, #59 - Aaron Dobson
4th round, #102 - Josh Boyce

2014
7th round, #244 - Jeremy Gallon

2016
4th round, #112 - Malcolm Mitchell

2018
6th round, #210 - Braxton Berrios

2019
1st round, #32 - N'Keal Harry

I mean, great start with Branch and Givens. Slater was obviously a great pick, but not for the WR position. Edelman was a home run. Malcolm Mitchell was a huge contributor to a SB victory, but then got hurt and was out of the league soon after. Dobson had a couple of moments, but that's it.

On the whole, that's a giant pile of suck.

Or is it?

Average draft position of the 16 WRs: 132. #132 is in the second half of the 4th round of a typical NFL draft. Historically, 12% of WRs drafted in the 4th round end up starting half the games in their NFL career. So forget "stars". We're just talking about starting half your games. That means that of the 16 WRs drafted by NE, on average, we should expect to see just *2* of them start half their NFL games.

What do we ACTUALLY see?

Branch: 111 of 140 (79.3%)
Givens: 32 of 58 (55.2%)
Johnson: 9 of 50 (18.0%)
Sam: 0 of 2 (0.0%)
Jackson: 1 of 18 (5.6%)
Slater: 3 of 179 (1.7%)
Tate: 20 of 127 (15.7%)
Edelman: 85 of 137 (62.0%)
Price: 0 of 6 (0.0%)
Ebert: 0 of 5 (0.0%)
Dobson: 13 of 24 (54.2%)
Boyce: 3 of 10 (30.0%)
Gallon: 0 of 0 (0.0%)
Mitchell: 6 of 14 (42.9%)
Berrios: 2 of 23 (8.7%)
Harry: 11 of 13 (84.6%)

So 5 of the 16 players drafted at WR under BB have started more than half their games played in the NFL, more than twice the expected number at that position, given where, on average, BB has drafted them.

So given where BB has invested his WR draft capital, he's actually done very well. The problem is that he hasn't spent much upper-level draft capital on WRs. Here's the list again, but this time, just with guys drafted in the 1st or 2nd round:

2002 2nd round, #65 - Deion Branch - 111 of 140 (79.3%)
2003 2nd round, #45 - Bethel Johnson - Johnson: 9 of 50 (18.0%)
2006 2nd round, #36 - Chad Jackson - Jackson: 1 of 18 (5.6%)
2013 2nd round, #59 - Aaron Dobson - Dobson: 13 of 24 (54.2%)
2019 1st round, #32 - N'Keal Harry - 11 of 13 (84.6%)

The numbers tell us that 58% of WRs drafted in the 1st round, and 49% of WRs drafted in the 2nd round start half their NFL games. NE has had 3 of the 5 WRs BB has drafted in the 1st or 2nd round start half the games they've played in. So again, better than league-average success.

But what stings is that none of those guys ever became STARS. Branch is obviously the closest thing to a star (winning a SB MVP), but even he wasn't a star. He was a very good player for a long time, but his best season was 2005, when he had 78 receptions for 998 yds and 5 touchdowns. Fine numbers, and a reliable target for Brady, but that's not the stat line of a star. Never made even a single pro-bowl team. And that's the BEST of this group. Two were colossal failures (Jackson/Johnson), but even Johnson had a longer than average NFL career (4 years compared to 2.66 years on average, and just over 2 years on average for WRs). So really, only one true, godawful bust. Dobson had injury issues but even he had a 3-year career.

We just haven't seen BB hit the true home run with a stud WR pick. Edelman is by FAR the best WR he's ever drafted - and to be honest, one of the best draft picks in Patriots' history, when all is said and done, given his production, the team success with him as a featured player, and where he was drafted (7th round).

We see other teams draft these studs coming out of college and we think, "Why couldn't BB have picked even ONE of those guys?" Well, he hasn't tried very much, given the average draft position he's taken WRs. And he's actually had better-than-average success at picking WRs. I know that the gut reaction to that will be to scoff, but this is what the data shows. We'd just all, just once, love to see him absolutely frigging NAIL a top-level WR pick and grab the next great Patriots' franchise WR with a 1st or 2nd round pick and see that guy go to pro bowls and be on all-pro teams for years.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
2013 2nd round, #59 - Aaron Dobson - Dobson: 13 of 24 (54.2%)
2019 1st round, #32 - N'Keal Harry - 11 of 13 (84.6%)

The numbers tell us that 58% of WRs drafted in the 1st round, and 49% of WRs drafted in the 2nd round start half their NFL games. NE has had 3 of the 5 WRs BB has drafted in the 1st or 2nd round start half the games they've played in. So again, better than league-average success.
Starting half your games is pretty silly criteria for success. Dobson started half his games, but he was basically out of the NFL halfway through his third season, so he played very few games. He's a bust.

We see other teams draft these studs coming out of college and we think, "Why couldn't BB have picked even ONE of those guys?" Well, he hasn't tried very much, given the average draft position he's taken WRs.
I agree with this. The biggest issue with WR is they just haven't invested much in the position. As you note, that's true in the draft, but it's also true with veteran WRs. They traded Branch, Moss, and Cooks before having to pay them big money, and let plenty of other guys go when they were still productive (Stallworth, Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Amendola). Time has proven these moves correct, for the most part, but if you're not spending draft capital and you're not spending cap space, you're basically at the mercy of what you find rummaging around in the bargain bin.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,386
Starting half your games is pretty silly criteria for success. Dobson started half his games, but he was basically out of the NFL halfway through his third season, so he played very few games. He's a bust.


I agree with this. The biggest issue with WR is they just haven't invested much in the position. As you note, that's true in the draft, but it's also true with veteran WRs. They traded Branch, Moss, and Cooks before having to pay them big money, and let plenty of other guys go when they were still productive (Stallworth, Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Amendola). Time has proven these moves correct, for the most part, but if you're not spending draft capital and you're not spending cap space, you're basically at the mercy of what you find rummaging around in the bargain bin.
Why is it silly? Dobson was a pretty good player his rookie year, got hurt, and missed a lot of time. I wouldn't call him a "bust" because of injuries. When healthy, he was primarily a starter in the NFL.

I agree with your last paragraph.

It will be interesting to see how much draft or $$ capital BB puts into the WR position moving forward. Huge area of need, obviously. He tried last year by signing AB and trading for Sanu. Neither move worked out, but it wasn't due to a lack of effort.
 

rodderick

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2009
12,751
Belo Horizonte - Brazil
Why is it silly? Dobson was a pretty good player his rookie year, got hurt, and missed a lot of time. I wouldn't call him a "bust" because of injuries. When healthy, he was primarily a starter in the NFL.

I agree with your last paragraph.

It will be interesting to see how much draft or $$ capital BB puts into the WR position moving forward. Huge area of need, obviously. He tried last year by signing AB and trading for Sanu. Neither move worked out, but it wasn't due to a lack of effort.
Dobson sucked from the jump and only started and was targeted a lot in his rookie year because the whole team was injured. I mean, Kembrell Thompkins also saw a lot of action for the 2013 Patriots.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,386
Dobson as a rookie had 37 receptions for 519 yds (14.0 avg), and 4 touchdowns.

He was perfectly fine as a rookie.

Then he got hurt.

FWIW, so much of this is subjective personal opinion, isn’t it?
 

rodderick

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2009
12,751
Belo Horizonte - Brazil
Dobson as a rookie had 37 receptions for 519 yds (14.0 avg), and 4 touchdowns.

He was perfectly fine as a rookie.

Then he got hurt.

FWIW, so much of this is subjective personal opinion, isn’t it?
Those are pretty much the same numbers Kembrell Thompkins had, once again, because they had no other healthy receiving options. Dobson's 51.4 catch% in 2013 ranked 182 out of 205 qualified receivers. Thompkins' 46.4 ranked 194. They got the ball because they were the only bodies out there.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
Dobson as a rookie had 37 receptions for 519 yds (14.0 avg), and 4 touchdowns.

He was perfectly fine as a rookie.

Then he got hurt.

FWIW, so much of this is subjective personal opinion, isn’t it?
Dobson did show some promise early, but it was not just an injury thing as you suggest. Dobson was a healthy scratch 8 times in 2014, his second year, and twice more in 2015. If you add those 10 games where he was not even good enough to make the game-day actives, he falls below your 50% threshhold.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,386
Let’s split the difference on Dobson and not turn this into a referendum on him specifically, Because my point does not hinge on this one player. And let’s not miss the forest for the trees. On the whole, contrary to how it feels to almost all of us, Belichick has been above average in drafting wide receivers, given the draft position he has typically taken them on average.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
51,315
Agree 100%. It’s a passing league and we just don’t have the weapons. It’s like an NBA team not having enough 3 point shooting in 2020.

Needed to spend more draft capital in 2016-2018 when it was clear that the GRONK era was approaching the end and with Edelman’s age getting up there.

The real kick in the nuts was the 2017 draft when we sandwiched Rivers and Garcia around Chris Godwin. In 2018, James Washington, DJ Chark, and Michael Gallup all went after we wasted the Duke Dawson pick. Ouch.
The 2019 draft is the one I will lament for the next 10 years. I know it is a fool's errand and 20/20 hindsight etc etc but in an alternate universe they could have very easily left that draft with any two of Metcalf/Brown/McLaurin. Even pairing the regrettable Harry pick with one of those guys would have been considered a big win. Hell, throw in Hunter Renfrow later on as a guy that looked like a good scheme fit. Whether or not that keeps them competitive this season, who knows, but it at least would have been a hole filled for the next 5 years and a decent situation for any QB to step into. I don't blame them for a year like 2020 where most of the top guys were off the board before their first pick, but 2019 didn't see the first WR until the mid-20s so there was absolutely no reaching or trading up necessary.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,094
The 2019 draft is the one I will lament for the next 10 years. I know it is a fool's errand and 20/20 hindsight etc etc but in an alternate universe they could have very easily left that draft with any two of Metcalf/Brown/McLaurin. Even pairing the regrettable Harry pick with one of those guys would have been considered a big win. Hell, throw in Hunter Renfrow later on as a guy that looked like a good scheme fit. Whether or not that keeps them competitive this season, who knows, but it at least would have been a hole filled for the next 5 years and a decent situation for any QB to step into. I don't blame them for a year like 2020 where most of the top guys were off the board before their first pick, but 2019 didn't see the first WR until the mid-20s so there was absolutely no reaching or trading up necessary.
Yup. There were tons of impact guys over last few drafts and we came away with 0 of them. Just a horrendous job of talent evaluation at that position. No way around it. Harry over Deebo/Brown/Metcalf sucks. McLaurin, a guy some here were talking about pre-draft, went right before Wino. Would be interesting to know what they do if both guys were there.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
Let’s split the difference on Dobson and not turn this into a referendum on him specifically, Because my point does not hinge on this one player. And let’s not miss the forest for the trees. On the whole, contrary to how it feels to almost all of us, Belichick has been above average in drafting wide receivers, given the draft position he has typically taken them on average.
I don't agree Belichick has been above-average in drafting WR, and I've studied it myself (that was pre-Harry, who to date has been a bust, though his story is not yet fully written). But I would say he's within spitting distance of average, and I would agree that a) Belichick's track record drafting receivers is not nearly as bad as his rep and b) most of the issue is that he's invested very little draft capital at the position.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,069
Hingham, MA
The 2019 draft is the one I will lament for the next 10 years. I know it is a fool's errand and 20/20 hindsight etc etc but in an alternate universe they could have very easily left that draft with any two of Metcalf/Brown/McLaurin. Even pairing the regrettable Harry pick with one of those guys would have been considered a big win. Hell, throw in Hunter Renfrow later on as a guy that looked like a good scheme fit. Whether or not that keeps them competitive this season, who knows, but it at least would have been a hole filled for the next 5 years and a decent situation for any QB to step into. I don't blame them for a year like 2020 where most of the top guys were off the board before their first pick, but 2019 didn't see the first WR until the mid-20s so there was absolutely no reaching or trading up necessary.
The problem I have with these hindsight analyses is that they assume that the player would have gotten the same opportunity in NE as they did in (insert team here). If the Pats had drafted Metcalf, would he have even seen the field? We have no way to know, but based on everything we've seen from this team for the last 20 years odds are generally stacked against rookies in general in NE, and maybe even more specifically at WR.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,386
The 2019 draft is the one I will lament for the next 10 years. I know it is a fool's errand and 20/20 hindsight etc etc but in an alternate universe they could have very easily left that draft with any two of Metcalf/Brown/McLaurin. Even pairing the regrettable Harry pick with one of those guys would have been considered a big win. Hell, throw in Hunter Renfrow later on as a guy that looked like a good scheme fit. Whether or not that keeps them competitive this season, who knows, but it at least would have been a hole filled for the next 5 years and a decent situation for any QB to step into. I don't blame them for a year like 2020 where most of the top guys were off the board before their first pick, but 2019 didn't see the first WR until the mid-20s so there was absolutely no reaching or trading up necessary.
If you go back and look at the Harry thread, you will see that the vast majority of posters here loved that pick and thought Belichick nailed that one.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,094
The problem I have with these hindsight analyses is that they assume that the player would have gotten the same opportunity in NE as they did in (insert team here). If the Pats had drafted Metcalf, would he have even seen the field? We have no way to know, but based on everything we've seen from this team for the last 20 years odds are generally stacked against rookies in general in NE, and maybe even more specifically at WR.
Who cares? The point is to get talent into the system. There are always going to be differences based on opportunity, scheme, etc. but it's not like Harry is a different system away from being DK Metcalf or AJ Brown. He has so many limitations that prevent that. There is no doubt in my mind that Josh would have gotten production out of guys like Deebo, McLaurin, AJ Brown, etc. He can only do so much with Harry because Harry just isn't very good.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,386
The problem I have with these hindsight analyses is that they assume that the player would have gotten the same opportunity in NE as they did in (insert team here). If the Pats had drafted Metcalf, would he have even seen the field? We have no way to know, but based on everything we've seen from this team for the last 20 years odds are generally stacked against rookies in general in NE, and maybe even more specifically at WR.
If Harry was playing for Seattle, do we think that he would still be a “bust”? Or do we think that Russell Wilson would be throwing these high arcing deep throws and that Harry would be making great catches on a weekly basis?
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,100
The problem I have with these hindsight analyses is that they assume that the player would have gotten the same opportunity in NE as they did in (insert team here). If the Pats had drafted Metcalf, would he have even seen the field? We have no way to know, but based on everything we've seen from this team for the last 20 years odds are generally stacked against rookies in general in NE, and maybe even more specifically at WR.
If he was talented, he would see the field. Branch saw the field a lot his rookie season. Mitchell did by Week 8 or so.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
51,315
The problem I have with these hindsight analyses is that they assume that the player would have gotten the same opportunity in NE as they did in (insert team here). If the Pats had drafted Metcalf, would he have even seen the field? We have no way to know, but based on everything we've seen from this team for the last 20 years odds are generally stacked against rookies in general in NE, and maybe even more specifically at WR.
After coming back from injury, Harry got plenty of snaps last year and was seeing >50% of snaps by season's end. And over 80% this year despite being pretty bad.

If you go back and look at the Harry thread, you will see that the vast majority of posters here loved that pick and thought Belichick nailed that one.
And that's fine, but we don't get paid to scout NFL players. Two of their last three 1st round selections were spent on skill players who play slow, relatively speaking, and whose tape hasn't translated. I also recall plenty of concerns around draft time about Harry's speed, lack of separation, route-running skills, issues with press coverage, and that you might need to scheme to get him the ball. I guess it seems obvious in hindsight, but that is also the argument for taking more bites at the apple.
 

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
The problem I have with these hindsight analyses is that they assume that the player would have gotten the same opportunity in NE as they did in (insert team here). If the Pats had drafted Metcalf, would he have even seen the field? We have no way to know, but based on everything we've seen from this team for the last 20 years odds are generally stacked against rookies in general in NE, and maybe even more specifically at WR.
I agree. Not only is there the question of system, but also coaching and culture, (the latter which also encompasses TB12 and his much-discussed view of rookies).

But I'm interested in discussing WR coaching. Not JMcD or BB, but the actual position coaches.

Much has been said thru the years of Scar's ability to turn dross into gold on the OLine, perhaps the Pats' WR coaches have been underwhelming. There was Chad O'Shea from 2009-2017. He didn't exactly light the world on fire when he left the Pats to become OC for the Dolphins. When he left, Joe Judge took over as WR coach, splitting time with his role as ST coach. This season, Mick Lombardi if WR coach (I'm not sure why Troy Brown isn't WR coach).
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,069
Hingham, MA
Who cares? The point is to get talent into the system. There are always going to be differences based on opportunity, scheme, etc. but it's not like Harry is a different system away from being DK Metcalf or AJ Brown. He has so many limitations that prevent that. There is no doubt in my mind that Josh would have gotten production out of guys like Deebo, McLaurin, AJ Brown, etc. He can only do so much with Harry because Harry just isn't very good.
You're right that the point is to get talent into the system, I'm just not convinced that DK Metcalf would be a star in NE like he is in Seattle. Maybe I'm wrong. It would hard to believe that they were so far off in judging talent.

If Harry was playing for Seattle, do we think that he would still be a “bust”? Or do we think that Russell Wilson would be throwing these high arcing deep throws and that Harry would be making great catches on a weekly basis?
Yeah it's really hard to say. Part of the issue with Harry was due to the injury last year, and part of it is due to having no QB this year.

If he was talented, he would see the field. Branch saw the field a lot his rookie season. Mitchell did by Week 8 or so.
After coming back from injury, Harry got plenty of snaps last year and was seeing >50% of snaps by season's end. And over 80% this year despite being pretty bad.
As @Jed Zeppelin points out Harry did actually see the field once he returned from injury.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,094
You're right that the point is to get talent into the system, I'm just not convinced that DK Metcalf would be a star in NE like he is in Seattle. Maybe I'm wrong. It would hard to believe that they were so far off in judging talent.
I definitely think DK landed into the perfect situation for him but I also think that Josh/TB12 makes Deebo/AJ Brown a valuable WR in NE last year. Both guys are so versatile that they're right up our alley. These outside guys like DK never seem to hit for us. I view DK as less of a miss than those 2 since he was almost a round 3 pick. Everyone got fooled by him.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,069
Hingham, MA
I definitely think DK landed into the perfect situation for him but I also think that Josh/TB12 makes Deebo/AJ Brown a valuable WR in NE last year. Both guys are so versatile that they're right up our alley. These outside guys like DK never seem to hit for us. I view DK as less of a miss than those 2 since he was almost a round 3 pick. Everyone got fooled by him.
Yeah that's fair, can't disagree
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
The problem I have with these hindsight analyses is that they assume that the player would have gotten the same opportunity in NE as they did in (insert team here). If the Pats had drafted Metcalf, would he have even seen the field? We have no way to know, but based on everything we've seen from this team for the last 20 years odds are generally stacked against rookies in general in NE, and maybe even more specifically at WR.
Given the state of WR last year, Metcalf clearly would have gotten opportunities, and the role Harry played last year would fit his skill set very well. Brady's not as good a deep ball thrower as Wilson, but his deep ball would have looked a lot better with DK than with Harry.

If Harry was playing for Seattle, do we think that he would still be a “bust”? Or do we think that Russell Wilson would be throwing these high arcing deep throws and that Harry would be making great catches on a weekly basis?
It's not like every Seattle WR is a home run. They took Gary Jennings in the 4th last year and he was cut before ever playing a snap. Ditto Amara Darboh in 2017. Metcalf excels at beating press and winning deep, two things that fit great in Seattle's system and two things Harry is not good at (and was not good at in college).

I definitely think DK landed into the perfect situation for him but I also think that Josh/TB12 makes Deebo/AJ Brown a valuable WR in NE last year. Both guys are so versatile that they're right up our alley. These outside guys like DK never seem to hit for us. I view DK as less of a miss than those 2 since he was almost a round 3 pick. Everyone got fooled by him.
I agree with this. I get why they were skittish with Metcalf. Harry over Samuel or especially Brown, I have more trouble with.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,386
It's not our job to be right though.
Agreed. But statistically, less than 60% of WRs drafted in the first round even start half their NFL games - never mind end up being stars. And less than 50% of WRs drafted in the second round even start half their NFL games.

So I guess most GMs actually get it "wrong" more often than they get it "right".
 

rodderick

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2009
12,751
Belo Horizonte - Brazil
If Harry was playing for Seattle, do we think that he would still be a “bust”? Or do we think that Russell Wilson would be throwing these high arcing deep throws and that Harry would be making great catches on a weekly basis?
Has Harry even been open on that type of route? Has he run that type of route? Seems to me like what Metcalf excels at (getting off the line and top straight line speed) are arguably Harry's main weaknesses. Not to say the guy is a complete stiff that wouldn't work in any offense, but I don't think Seattle's deep passing game would be great for him. I think he'd do best with a Jameis Winston kind of QB, a guy that tries to fit balls in there and gives the WR a shot no matter how covered they are.