2020 Pats: QB Edition

Cellar-Door

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Jeff Howe from The Athletic (paywall) did an article citing a source saying Pats have no interest in Newton nor Dalton. Doesn't mention if there's a link to last week's Curran report, but if not, that's 2 sources (still pretty thin) saying no interest while giving the complimentary reports on Stidham a lot of emphasis. I like that JS is best positioned to take full advantage of the young (and cheap) receivers. If the OL is healthy, his protection should be good and I'd expect they'd add 2 solid blocking TE's. They'll probably mirror a lot of the attack that early TB used with allowances made for the strengths and weaknesses of JS compared to TB.

There was a chart online and it outlined by position the Pats players signed after 2021. There were 11 total with the vast majority on O. This draft simply has to be D heavy so what Stidham has to work with now is likely what he'll be working with this season.

If the new era is finally here, it's an exciting unknown.
It's 12, 6 offense, 4 defense, 2 ST though some of those guys might well get cut before then.

For 2022 here are the players under Contract:

Offense:
QB- Stidham
OL- Mason
OL- Froholdt
OL- Cajuste
WR- Harry
RB- Harris

Defense:
CB- Jones
CB- Williams
Edge- Winovich
DL- Cowart

Special Teams;
LS- Cardona
P- Bailey

The only players not on rookie deals are Mason and Jones, and Mason is the only one of the 12 under contract beyond 2022.

I really doubt the presence of guys like Harris and Cajuste or even Froholdt are going to impact which side of the ball the Patriots draft on, their cap and roster as so wide open that they are free to draft whoever the best players are available, since long term there is not a single position that they won't need a good player at (especially if it has the benefit of being on a nice cheap rookie deal).
The Patriots 2022 is bare on purpose, they made a decision on timelines, and this year is the year of eating a big cap hit to make sure that 2021 and 2022 are years they can spend in free agency if they want to.
 

DourDoerr

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I'll have to look it up, but IIRC they were including the 5th year options of Wynn and Michel, so the numbers tilt a little more to O if true. I guess the urgency on drafting either way would rest on how many of those players on that roster are considered just warm bodies now.
 

Cellar-Door

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I'll have to look it up, but IIRC they were including the 5th year options of Wynn and Michel, so the numbers tilt a little more to O if true. I guess the urgency on drafting either way would rest on how many of those players on that roster are considered just warm bodies now.
Yeah, but also maybe it slightly discourages picking a RB, but if there is an NFL starting tackle at 23 or what you see as a #1 WR, nothing in future years would make you even consider passing on him. Same in the mid-rounds. Even if every single guy pans out into a starter, you're still looking at a QB, 2 RB, 1 WR, 3 OL. Other than RB, how does that stop you from going BPA? The team needs to be completely rebuilt on both sides between now and 2022, both through FA and the draft, and I assume as with any smart team the Patriots' approach would just be... "hey we need 40+ guys over the next 2 offseasons, why don't we lock up the best possible players we can.
 

DourDoerr

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You're right. You win with good players and they'll take the BPA - although tie goes to the defender, I'd think. It's startling to consider they've only locked up 2 CB's, 1 Edge and 1 DL - and that's if you think those players are starter quality.

Like other BB teams though, he'll be filling the roster with (hopefully) finds in FA and many will probably start.
 
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BaseballJones

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Stidham is the likely starting QB. The last time the Patriots had this much uncertainty - with 2008 being an exception because Brady got injured in the first game - at QB *heading into the season* was back in 1992. So going into every season from 1993-2019, the Patriots have only ever had either Drew Bledsoe (a 3-time pro-bowler) or Tom Brady (the GOAT).

This season is going to feel....very strange.
 

cornwalls@6

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The thing that concerns me most about Stidham for this year, and it’s not a knock on him, is that it was obviously very critical for him have full participation in OTA, passing camp( if that’s still a thing), mini-camp, and training camp. It seems like the best we can hope for is probably a reduced training camp. Wondering if that will cause them to simplify the offense to a significant degree, and possibly stunt his development. Feels like 2020 might be more of a reset year that than I initially thought.
 

normstalls

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Why would anyone think it would be surprising?

2000 Brady
2002 Davey
2003 Kingsbury
2005 Cassel
2008 O'Connell
2010 Zac Robinson
2014 JG
2016 Brissett
2018 Etling
2019 Stidham

Even though it's only 10-10, I'd wager that's in the upper third of NFL teams over the same time period

This story includes a chart for the years 1999-2016

https://www.businessinsider.com/quarterbacks-drafted-nfl-teams-2017-2
Ryan Mallett and his four pass attempts is bummed you already have forgotten about him.
 

E5 Yaz

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Ryan Mallett and his four pass attempts is bummed you already have forgotten about him.
He never really played for the Patriots; they drafted him, then immediately sent him to the Cardinals for LFitz
 

Harry Hooper

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The thing that concerns me most about Stidham for this year, and it’s not a knock on him, is that it was obviously very critical for him have full participation in OTA, passing camp( if that’s still a thing), mini-camp, and training camp. It seems like the best we can hope for is probably a reduced training camp. Wondering if that will cause them to simplify the offense to a significant degree, and possibly stunt his development. Feels like 2020 might be more of a reset year that than I initially thought.
A morsel of good news is that thanks to Brady's elbow issue limiting his practice reps in 2019, Stidham worked with the starting offensive unit much more than usual last season.
 

scotian1

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From this report it is obvious that they will tailor the offence to Stidham's strengths.




Henry McKenna
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·8h
Bill Belichick asked if the Patriots intend to alter their offense around a new QB. "Over the last 2 decades, everything we did, every decision we made in terms of planning is made with the idea of what's best for Tom Brady."
 

BigSoxFan

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From this report it is obvious that they will tailor the offence to Stidham's strengths.

Henry McKenna
@McKennAnalysis

·8h
Bill Belichick asked if the Patriots intend to alter their offense around a new QB. "Over the last 2 decades, everything we did, every decision we made in terms of planning is made with the idea of what's best for Tom Brady."
Not intended as snark. What are his known strengths? I know he is more mobile but not really a dual threat either. Maybe more of the Jimmy G playbook?
 

BaseballJones

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From this report it is obvious that they will tailor the offence to Stidham's strengths.

Henry McKenna
@McKennAnalysis

·8h
Bill Belichick asked if the Patriots intend to alter their offense around a new QB. "Over the last 2 decades, everything we did, every decision we made in terms of planning is made with the idea of what's best for Tom Brady."
I assume he meant, "....made with the idea of what's best for the Patriots, given that Tom Brady has been the quarterback."
 

DJnVa

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Yeah, NESN had a longer quote and it said that when they played games with other QBs they tailored things to them.

Of course there's a difference between a few games of Jimmy G or Brissett or 15 of Cassell--that's tailoring a game plan. However, in the past the roster was tailored to Brady. Now, that can change a little.
 

Shaky Walton

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The notion of designing your offense around your existing QB's strengths is fundamental and unremarkable. With a new QB in town, it's also basic that they would tailor the offense to maximize the new guy's strengths. The media needs to create some interest so Bill's rather obvious comment gets turned into something it is not. Rinse, lather, repeat.
 

Harry Hooper

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Don't buy either of these predictions from Rapoport. I doubt the Pats draft a QB in the first 4 rounds. Also, Stidham got the nod over Hoyer last season, and then did a ton of work with the offense's 1st unit as Brady's stand-in for practices. Plus, Bortles and Co. still floating out there as FA.
 

nighthob

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If Hoyer is the starting QB in 2020 it will be because New England wants Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields to be the starting QB in ‘21.
 

djbayko

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Don't buy either of these predictions from Rapoport. I doubt the Pats draft a QB in the first 4 rounds. Also, Stidham got the nod over Hoyer last season, and then did a ton of work with the offense's 1st unit as Brady's stand-in for practices. Plus, Bortles and Co. still floating out there as FA.
And even if the Patriots surprised everyone and somehow grabbed a top QB prospect, unless that guy is Burrow (0% chance), I doubt he's starting Week 1.
 

Cellar-Door

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The report doesn't really make any sense. Even if the Patriots surprised everyone and somehow grabbed a top QB prospect, unless that guy is Burrow (0% chance), I doubt he's starting Week 1.
I don't know about that. I mean yeah if the timeline ends up super shortened, but if not... I mean Stidham or a rookie you're starting someone with essentially no experience. There is value in the year of practices that Stidham got, but if the guy you drafted performs well in camp and pre-season there is no real reason not to start him considering the other options.
 

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Reiss on the QB situation:

2. Best QB fit: Credibility matters. So when ESPN's Matt Bowen wrote before last year's draft that Stidham was the best QB fit for the Patriots, and then the Patriots selected Stidham in the fourth round (No. 133), it made me seek out Bowen's opinion of this year's crop of signal-callers. Bowen's choice for the Patriots: Washington's Jacob Eason. The obvious follow-up -- there is no relation to former Patriots quarterback Tony Eason (although his dad, Tony, played wide receiver for Notre Dame). Eason projects as a Day 2 pick.

https://www.espn.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4819865/patriots-nfl-draft-plans-at-qb-more-about-when-than-if
 

nighthob

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I’m not really wild about Eason. After last year I thought he was an interesting prospect, but he didn’t make enough progress for me to be comfortable with him.
 

Captaincoop

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Reiss on the QB situation:

2. Best QB fit: Credibility matters. So when ESPN's Matt Bowen wrote before last year's draft that Stidham was the best QB fit for the Patriots, and then the Patriots selected Stidham in the fourth round (No. 133), it made me seek out Bowen's opinion of this year's crop of signal-callers. Bowen's choice for the Patriots: Washington's Jacob Eason. The obvious follow-up -- there is no relation to former Patriots quarterback Tony Eason (although his dad, Tony, played wide receiver for Notre Dame). Eason projects as a Day 2 pick.

https://www.espn.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4819865/patriots-nfl-draft-plans-at-qb-more-about-when-than-if
I legitimately feel better about him now that I know he's not Tony's son.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I’m not really wild about Eason. After last year I thought he was an interesting prospect, but he didn’t make enough progress for me to be comfortable with him.
I had the displeasure of watching Eason a last season (only because some of my money goes to his alma mater) and I get why people like him. Big arm and looks like a star QB.

However unless they think he will develop a better touch, I don't think he is a Belichick type of QB. From my untrained eyes, he seemed to struggle with too many touch passes and consistently leading receivers. More importantly, as PFF notes, Eason struggles mightily when under pressure.

Seems like that as well as my anecdotal observation about his accurate makes him almost the anti-(peak) Brady. As always, IBIT...

18. JACOB EASON – WASHINGTON
Preseason Rank: 36; Week 6 Rank: 11; Week 12 Rank: 25
Eason flipped back and forth from near-elite to shaky almost on a whim. Fortunately for him and his projection at the next level, his peaks completely outweighed his valleys in 2019. He had 10 games with game grades above 70.0 but had three game grades lower than 60.0. Eason was a completely different quarterback when pressured, again fortunately for him and his NFL projection, that is an incredibly unstable metric from one year to the next. When he was kept clean, he was the nation’s ninth-ranked quarterback by passing grade, completing 227-of-315 passes for 2,741 yards and 20 of his touchdowns. His 81.4% adjusted completion percentage when kept clean from pressure ranked the 10th-best in the country as he was absolutely dominant when given time to throw.
 

Super Nomario

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Reiss on the QB situation:

2. Best QB fit: Credibility matters. So when ESPN's Matt Bowen wrote before last year's draft that Stidham was the best QB fit for the Patriots, and then the Patriots selected Stidham in the fourth round (No. 133), it made me seek out Bowen's opinion of this year's crop of signal-callers. Bowen's choice for the Patriots: Washington's Jacob Eason. The obvious follow-up -- there is no relation to former Patriots quarterback Tony Eason (although his dad, Tony, played wide receiver for Notre Dame). Eason projects as a Day 2 pick.

https://www.espn.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4819865/patriots-nfl-draft-plans-at-qb-more-about-when-than-if
I haven't done tape on any of these guys, but Eason resembles Stidham in that he's a guy where, if in 2017-2018 we were told the Pats were going to get him in 2020, we'd be pretty excited. But his star has dimmed, as Stidham's did (which is why he was still there well into the 4th). Ryan Mallett was another guy like that.
 

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Submitted without comment, Peter King's Mock Draft shocker:

13. New England (trade with San Francisco)—Tua Tagovailoa, quarterback, Alabama
So Tagovailoa could drop, and Bill Belichick really doesn’t want to take a quarterback now, with one draft pick in the top 85 this year and needs all over his roster. And truly: I have no indication, no inside information, that says he’d do this. It’s simply a guess. But think if you’re Belichick. Because your team never finishes 3-13, you never have a chance to get one of the best quarterbacks in the college game. Until Tagovailoa’s hip popped out of the socket last November, forcing immediate and urgent surgery, he was 1/1A with the transcendent Joe Burrow to be the first pick in this draft. And you don’t want to pillage the lone first or lone second-round pick from next year’s draft. But do you do it for a great but pockmarked talent such as Tagovailoa five months after major hip surgery? I do know Belichick would have confidence in his player-procurement skills.
I also don’t know what the New England orthopods will say about him. I do know one respected team doctor for an NFL team who gave Tagovailoa the once-over at the combine, and I asked him what he thought about Tagovailoa’s propensity for injury while at Alabama—a broken hand, two high-ankle sprains, and a hip dislocation most recently. This is what this doctor—whose team is not in the market for a first-round quarterback—told me Thursday:
“These contact injuries are part of the game. You ask yourself, ‘Is this guy injury-prone, or does he have a bullseye on him because he’s a crucial player on his team?’ I’ve seen a few of the hip dislocations in football, and my experience is that if you lose blood supply to the hip for a long-enough period of time, you’re in trouble. I don’t think that was the case here. As I see it, the effects of the dislocation might show up when he’s 35, but not when he’s 25.”
Cautiously optimistic then. Tough call for a franchise, but when would the Patriots ever get a shot at a potential superstar quarterback? Even if they had to throw in next year’s first-rounder, I think this would be a risk worth taking for the Patriots.

link
 

BigSoxFan

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Submitted without comment, Peter King's Mock Draft shocker:

13. New England (trade with San Francisco)—Tua Tagovailoa, quarterback, Alabama
So Tagovailoa could drop, and Bill Belichick really doesn’t want to take a quarterback now, with one draft pick in the top 85 this year and needs all over his roster. And truly: I have no indication, no inside information, that says he’d do this. It’s simply a guess. But think if you’re Belichick. Because your team never finishes 3-13, you never have a chance to get one of the best quarterbacks in the college game. Until Tagovailoa’s hip popped out of the socket last November, forcing immediate and urgent surgery, he was 1/1A with the transcendent Joe Burrow to be the first pick in this draft. And you don’t want to pillage the lone first or lone second-round pick from next year’s draft. But do you do it for a great but pockmarked talent such as Tagovailoa five months after major hip surgery? I do know Belichick would have confidence in his player-procurement skills.
I also don’t know what the New England orthopods will say about him. I do know one respected team doctor for an NFL team who gave Tagovailoa the once-over at the combine, and I asked him what he thought about Tagovailoa’s propensity for injury while at Alabama—a broken hand, two high-ankle sprains, and a hip dislocation most recently. This is what this doctor—whose team is not in the market for a first-round quarterback—told me Thursday:
“These contact injuries are part of the game. You ask yourself, ‘Is this guy injury-prone, or does he have a bullseye on him because he’s a crucial player on his team?’ I’ve seen a few of the hip dislocations in football, and my experience is that if you lose blood supply to the hip for a long-enough period of time, you’re in trouble. I don’t think that was the case here. As I see it, the effects of the dislocation might show up when he’s 35, but not when he’s 25.”
Cautiously optimistic then. Tough call for a franchise, but when would the Patriots ever get a shot at a potential superstar quarterback? Even if they had to throw in next year’s first-rounder, I think this would be a risk worth taking for the Patriots.

link
Price to move up 10 spots would be like #87 and 2021 2nd, right? That’s obviously a deal you easily make if you think you’ve found your QB.
 

CoolPapaLaSchelle

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I am curious as to how folks will correlate if/where the Pats take a QB in the draft with the team's confidence in Stidham. I would imagine if they draft a QB in rounds 1-2, people will take that as a sign that BB is not particularly confident that he has something special in Stidham. If they don't raft a QB at all, or do so in the very late rounds, we might read this as an indicator that they really are confident that Stidham can be the guy for at least the next few years. A QB in rounds 3-4 feels like a bit of a push. What do others think?
 

BaseballJones

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All depends on who is available and how reasonable trade opportunities are. They might not have a ton of confidence in him, but the cost to trade up for a better QB is just prohibitive. Or they might have confidence that he can be a quality QB, but suddenly Tua drops and maybe they think he can be a transcendent QB, and so they make a move. Lots of stuff we simply will never know.
 

tims4wins

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I am curious as to how folks will correlate if/where the Pats take a QB in the draft with the team's confidence in Stidham. I would imagine if they draft a QB in rounds 1-2, people will take that as a sign that BB is not particularly confident that he has something special in Stidham. If they don't raft a QB at all, or do so in the very late rounds, we might read this as an indicator that they really are confident that Stidham can be the guy for at least the next few years. A QB in rounds 3-4 feels like a bit of a push. What do others think?
Yeah pretty much. A 3rd-4th round pick would be confusing IMO
 

RedOctober3829

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Price to move up 10 spots would be like #87 and 2021 2nd, right? That’s obviously a deal you easily make if you think you’ve found your QB.
Price would be 23,87,98,100 this year or 23 and most likely a 2021 1st or 2nd. It’s insanity to think BB would go this. In my memory he’s traded up as many as 6 spots in the first round twice and that was in the 2012 draft for Jones and Hightower. The spots he traded up to were 21 and 25 so not much capital needed to be exchanged to do do. Going up 10 spots for a QB who is not highly rated in the Patriots system and coming off a horrible hip injury is so far outside of what BB does.
 

jmanny24

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Price would be 23,87,98,100 this year or 23 and most likely a 2021 1st or 2nd. It’s insanity to think BB would go this. In my memory he’s traded up as many as 6 spots in the first round twice and that was in the 2012 draft for Jones and Hightower. The spots he traded up to were 21 and 25 so not much capital needed to be exchanged to do do. Going up 10 spots for a QB who is not highly rated in the Patriots system and coming off a horrible hip injury is so far outside of what BB does.
I might be on an island here, but I'd be willing to do 23 and a '21 2nd to move up if Tua comes in range. I'm not sure I'd be willing to give up 4 picks this year, especially without a 2nd.
 

Soxy

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I am curious as to how folks will correlate if/where the Pats take a QB in the draft with the team's confidence in Stidham. I would imagine if they draft a QB in rounds 1-2, people will take that as a sign that BB is not particularly confident that he has something special in Stidham. If they don't raft a QB at all, or do so in the very late rounds, we might read this as an indicator that they really are confident that Stidham can be the guy for at least the next few years. A QB in rounds 3-4 feels like a bit of a push. What do others think?
They drafted Jimmy G in the second round and multiple QBs in the third round when they still had Brady. Regardless of who they take where, I'm not sure we should read anything into it, in terms of how they feel about Stidham.
 

Super Nomario

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Six months ago there was no chance in hell the Patriots could get Tua. The same things that make him risky are the things that make drafting him even possible (maybe). Does that make it worth the risk? I don't know, but the opportunity is unique.

They drafted Jimmy G in the second round and multiple QBs in the third round when they still had Brady. Regardless of who they take where, I'm not sure we should read anything into it, in terms of how they feel about Stidham.
Yeah, I think their MO has been to evaluate quarterbacks every year throughout the draft and select where they think the "value" is. That might be getting the best QB in the draft late in the 2nd (Jimmy), taking a falling star in the midrounds (Mallett and Stidham) or taking a late-round guy they think might be a mid-round talent (Kliff Kingsbury or Matt Cassel ... or Tom Brady). If form holds, they'll be looking and deciding whether Tua or Love in the first or Fromm / Eason on day two or Morgan / Stanley (insert your favorite names for all these) fits best.

They are obviously in a unique position with respect to the starting QB, however, a place they haven't been in ages. That may or may not lend to a change in approach.
 

Cellar-Door

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Tua isn't going to fall. This is all the normal pre-draft bullshitting.
He was the consensus #1 for months, and a GM has the built in excuse of a global pandemic preventing medicals if he ends up injured. Someone will take him top 7.

Most GMs are trying to keep their jobs, drafting a guy every fan has been dreaming of for a year plus and getting unlucky on injuries is way less likely to lose you your job than passing on an elite QB to draft Brock Osweiller 2.0 or not having a QB at all.
 

BaseballJones

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So there's this:

30507

I am not saying I think it's going to happen, but is this sufficient smoke to begin revisiting the conversation?
 

Cellar-Door

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So there's this:

View attachment 30507

I am not saying I think it's going to happen, but is this sufficient smoke to begin revisiting the conversation?
Doubt it, just sucking up money from the news stories about the Pats not drafting a QB. Newton is a big name, and we are the big name team that just lost the most famous QB and only has a mid-round rookie as an option. To the public that looks like an obvious landing spot (and the public doesn't really pay attention to salary cap implications
 

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26. New England Patriots: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
With only two quarterbacks—Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer—on the roster, it’s surprising that Bill Belichick (or his trusted sidekick) didn’t at least draft a late-round quarterback. This dual-threat quarterback threw 28 touchdowns (and no interceptions) while also rushing for 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns as Lance won the Walter Payton Award as a redshirt freshman.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/04/27/way-too-early-nfl-2021-mock-draft
 

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26. New England Patriots: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
With only two quarterbacks—Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer—on the roster, it’s surprising that Bill Belichick (or his trusted sidekick) didn’t at least draft a late-round quarterback. This dual-threat quarterback threw 28 touchdowns (and no interceptions) while also rushing for 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns as Lance won the Walter Payton Award as a redshirt freshman.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/04/27/way-too-early-nfl-2021-mock-draft
So dumb on so many accounts. I know SI is just taking the Vegas odds to come up with the draft order. But if the Pats end up drafting #26 (no chance), then obviously they won't be drafting a QB
 

rodderick

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26. New England Patriots: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
With only two quarterbacks—Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer—on the roster, it’s surprising that Bill Belichick (or his trusted sidekick) didn’t at least draft a late-round quarterback. This dual-threat quarterback threw 28 touchdowns (and no interceptions) while also rushing for 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns as Lance won the Walter Payton Award as a redshirt freshman.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/04/27/way-too-early-nfl-2021-mock-draft
If Stidham takes them into the divisional round, they sure aren't drafting a quarterback.