2020 Pats: QB Edition

Marciano490

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I am not at all downplaying Brady’s greatness. At all. But, Bill won with Cassell, won with Jacoby, drafted and developed Jimmy. Maybe he’ll do something with Stidham. Obviously it’d be amazing if lighting struck twice, but Brady was a 6th rounder who was playing behind Drew Henson.
 

BigSoxFan

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Winston feels like the opposite of what I would expect Belichick to look for in a QB
Yeah, he’s basically Bledsoe if Bledsoe were even more careless and a terrible human being. Never say never but this one feels incredibly unlikely.
 

mauf

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The Patriots definitely love having competition, but with the salaries the veteran QBs are getting, it's really hard to imagine there's a good fit out there. I don't see the Patriots trading draft capital for anyone, and then it seems like absolutely everyone is getting >$15 million/year. How would it make sense to pay somebody >$15 million a year if they could end up being Stidham's back-up? Is there anyone out there that would be in the $5 million range? If not, I think they just draft a QB or two to compete with Stidham.
There’s only so many starting jobs, and teams are only willing to spend so much on a backup. If the Pats wait for the market to shake out, there will be one or two veterans available who won’t have better options than coming to New England on a one-year deal for “top dollar for a backup” money with a chance to compete for the starting job. Ryan Tannehill’s megadeal will only make this approach more appealing.

As I’ve said in other threads, the Pats will be a playoff team if they can find a cheap QB who is within shouting distance of league average. That’s obviously easier said than done. Stidham is probably their best bet to get that, but if they can spin the wheel twice rather than once, that seems like the right move.
 

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)

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I'm optimistic about Stidham mostly due to Belichick's track record in identifying QBs. For all of his genius and the accolades given to him I think his ability to spot QB talent is fairly underrated. Walk back through the QBs he has drafted or signed as UDFA and you see that those players consistently outperform reasonable expectations for when they were selected.

Getting Brady so late in the draft is beyond the gold standard, but also consider...

Matt Cassel - 7th round pick - Started 81 games over a 14 year career
Bryan Hoyer - Undrafted - Has been in the league for 11 years, mostly as a backup
Ryan Mallett - 3rd round pick - Stuck around in the league for 7 years, mostly as a backup
Jacoby Brissett - 3rd round pick - Played reasonably well as the starter for two seasons in Indy
Jimmy Garoppolo - 2nd round pick - Just took a team to the super bowl

I'll also throw Chris Redman into this conversation in case you believe the Brady lore that Bill almost drafted Redman instead... 3rd round pick - 9 year NFL career

On the other side he has also had some misses....

Rohan Davey - 4th round pick
Kliff Kingsbury - 6th round pick
Zac Robinson - 7th round pick
Kevin O'Connell - 3rd round pick
Michael Bishop - 7th round pick

In a typical draft there are 12-15 QBs selected plus who knows how many UDFAs signed. Despite his misses I'm pretty confident that you're not going to find a coach with a better track record for identifying QB talent than Bill. It's fair criticism that Stidham is not going to be the long term answer at QB if he is Ryan Mallett or Jacoby Brissett redux, but I think we can have some confidence that there are good odds for him to at least outperform expectations for a QB drafted in the 4th round.
 

NomarsFool

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There’s only so many starting jobs, and teams are only willing to spend so much on a backup. If the Pats wait for the market to shake out, there will be one or two veterans available who won’t have better options than coming to New England on a one-year deal for “top dollar for a backup” money with a chance to compete for the starting job.
What free agents are still available? Are you also thinking that additional QBs will be cut?
 

staz

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If you're Tampa, you're getting what, 2 years out of Tom Brady's rotting corpse? Resigning Winston to a team friendly deal with the promise of greener pastures after a reboot courtesy of TB12 might be an option?
 

mauf

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What free agents are still available? Are you also thinking that additional QBs will be cut?
Dalton will be cut. Newton will be cut if he isn’t dealt. They’re both behind Winston and Brissett in line for open starting jobs. And the landing spots are limited — besides the Chargers, and maybe the Dolphins/Bears/Panthers (at least one of which won’t jump imo), who is going to drop $20 million on a non-star QB?

I think Dalton is definitely on the outside looking in, and Newton might be too.
 

NomarsFool

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I can't remember, in the NFL do teams send money along with a player? So, would TB be looking for someone to trade for Newton and offer to pay some of his salary, or do they just have to cut him (since I assume not all of it is guaranteed)
 

chonce1

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They have no money for someone like Cam Newton who will still want to be paid. I would rather roll with Stidham over a declining Cam Newton.
1 year 21 million is manageable if they traded away a high-priced asset like Thuney. I doubt this happens but it could be done financially speaking. Now, whether he warrants an extension beyond that would depend entirely on health, but he is available for a reason so I would not assume he would be a top-paid QB. He is a risky low-end Qb1 right now but with massive name recognition and an MVP.
 

chonce1

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I can't remember, in the NFL do teams send money along with a player? So, would TB be looking for someone to trade for Newton and offer to pay some of his salary, or do they just have to cut him (since I assume not all of it is guaranteed)
I think they would still cut him in that situation since he has only $2 m in dead money. So they save $18m on the cap by cutting him. They save the same amount by trading him, but would not take on salary I suspect.
 

Green Monster

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Personally I do not follow college football very closely. Does anyone have any insight/thoughts regarding the top QB's in the draft, and how high the Patriots would need to trade up in order to get one?
 

mauf

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I think they would still cut him in that situation since he has only $2 m in dead money. So they save $18m on the cap by cutting him. They save the same amount by trading him, but would not take on salary I suspect.
ESPN reported yesterday that the Panthers gave Newton permission to try to work out a trade, and he took offense that it made it look like he wanted out. Certainly sounds like the Panthers decided there was no market for Cam unless he’d agree to rework his contract, and that they’re going to cut him unless he can make that happen.
 

EL Jeffe

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Personally I do not follow college football very closely. Does anyone have any insight/thoughts regarding the top QB's in the draft, and how high the Patriots would need to trade up in order to get one?
Joe Burrow in going #1 to the Bengals. Tua is going to Miami 5th (unless there is a trade to take him higher). Justin Herbert is probably 3rd off the board, hard to say how high (maybe 6 to San Diego?). Think Josh Allen (Buffalo) for the type of style/comparison. Jordan Love is likely 4th, and bit of a wild card. He's been compared to Mahommes, but that's very generous. Had a terrible season where his coach left and his surrounding talent was bad. But his ceiling is high. Love could be around at #23, or close to it. Major boom or bust potential. Nick Eason is probably next, big QB with a rocket arm but very inconsistent, raw and a project. He should be around at #23, but lot of question marks with him. For potential Day 2 picks, Jake Fromm (limited game manager but all the intangibles) and Jalen Hurts (in the Dak Prescott mold) could be targets.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I thought this was a good chart in this tweet that was retweeted by miguel not too long ago. Too hard to type it all out, but the important information:

Teams with a question mark at QB right now: Dolphins, Patriots, Chargers

QBs who started in 2019 that do not appear likely to be starting for the same team in 2020: Andy Dalton, Mason Rudolph, Jacoby Brissett, Joe Flacco, Case Keenum, Mitch Trubisky, Kyle Allen, Jameis Winston.

Blake Bortles probably belongs on the chart too.

View: https://twitter.com/fbgchase/status/1240340372871659520?s=20
 

Oppo

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Winston is only 26, if you can get him cheap (he’s currently looking at being a backup) he’s a high risk high reward play. See what McDaniels can do with him. Plus, imagine the heads that would explode if Winston/Pats have a better year than Brady/Bucs.
 

DJnVa

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It's been reported that the Chargers are going with Tyrod Taylor, so perhaps they are not a question mark.
 

Marciano490

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Winston is only 26, if you can get him cheap (he’s currently looking at being a backup) he’s a high risk high reward play. See what McDaniels can do with him. Plus, imagine the heads that would explode if Winston/Pats have a better year than Brady/Bucs.
Again, Winston was terrible with incredible offensive weapons. Plus, he had A credible rape accusation levied against him in college and a sexual assault allegation he settled out of court just 2 years ago. Keep him away from the Patriots, please.
 

Super Nomario

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It's been reported that the Chargers are going with Tyrod Taylor, so perhaps they are not a question mark.
I can buy Tyrod as the starter now, I can buy Tyrod as the starter Week 1; I'm not buying him starting Week 9. Chargers pick sixth, likely grab whoever of Tua / Herbert Miami passes on at 5.
 

DJnVa

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I can buy Tyrod as the starter now, I can buy Tyrod as the starter Week 1; I'm not buying him starting Week 9. Chargers pick sixth, likely grab whoever of Tua / Herbert Miami passes on at 5.
Yes--but I think they were speaking of vets available and spots open for them. If the report is true, I don't think the Chargers are one of them.
 

Cellar-Door

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Again, Winston was terrible with incredible offensive weapons. Plus, he had A credible rape accusation levied against him in college and a sexual assault allegation he settled out of court just 2 years ago. Keep him away from the Patriots, please.
Off the field issues are a concern, but he was not "terrible" he was insanely turnover prone but that balanced out some with throwing TDs, throwing down the field etc. He probably had similar overall value to Brady last season, just in a very different way. He had good weapons (really just Godwin and Evans, the rest of that team isn't great) but also a much worse offensive line than the Patriots. I wouldn't want him for off-field reasons, but in terms of performance he wasn't that bad, he threw a ton of picks, but the flip side is if he'd thrown 10 fewer picks we'd probably be talking about him as having been at least a top 10 QB.
 

Marciano490

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Off the field issues are a concern, but he was not "terrible" he was insanely turnover prone but that balanced out some with throwing TDs, throwing down the field etc. He probably had similar overall value to Brady last season, just in a very different way. He had good weapons (really just Godwin and Evans, the rest of that team isn't great) but also a much worse offensive line than the Patriots. I wouldn't want him for off-field reasons, but in terms of performance he wasn't that bad, he threw a ton of picks, but the flip side is if he'd thrown 10 fewer picks we'd probably be talking about him as having been at least a top 10 QB.
His rating last year was 84.3. His best rating is sub 93. The 5,000+ yards were nice, but he threw 30 picks. That’s more than Brady’s last 4 years combined.
 

tims4wins

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His rating last year was 84.3. His best rating is sub 93. The 5,000+ yards were nice, but he threw 30 picks. That’s more than Brady’s last 4 years combined.
Good enough for Eli to make the HoF...

Edit

career 84.1

season high of 93.6

career high 27 INT in 2013
 

Cellar-Door

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His rating last year was 84.3. His best rating is sub 93. The 5,000+ yards were nice, but he threw 30 picks. That’s more than Brady’s last 4 years combined.
Yeah, he throws a ton of picks.
The point was more that given the overall package of what he brings (high y/a and ny/a a high TD%, decent Comp%), you could argue that he hasn't been significantly less productive than what Brady is over the last 2 years. and that is a league average or slightly below QB. If you think you can drop his INT % to something closer to his 2017 season with scheme and better protection.... well then you have a top half of the league QB.

I don't know that I want Jameis for various reasons, but he wasn't "terrible" by any stretch, he wasn't one of the worst 5 starters in the league last year or even close to it. He's a flawed player and you have to build around his flaws but he wasn't "terrible".
 

Marciano490

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Yeah, he throws a ton of picks.
The point was more that given the overall package of what he brings (high y/a and ny/a a high TD%, decent Comp%), you could argue that he hasn't been significantly less productive than what Brady is over the last 2 years. and that is a league average or slightly below QB. If you think you can drop his INT % to something closer to his 2017 season with scheme and better protection.... well then you have a top half of the league QB.

I don't know that I want Jameis for various reasons, but he wasn't "terrible" by any stretch, he wasn't one of the worst 5 starters in the league last year or even close to it. He's a flawed player and you have to build around his flaws but he wasn't "terrible".

He’s between Flacco and Trubisky, and it was his best year. Maybe terrible is too hard, but I don’t think so.
 

Super Nomario

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Again, Winston was terrible with incredible offensive weapons. Plus, he had A credible rape accusation levied against him in college and a sexual assault allegation he settled out of court just 2 years ago. Keep him away from the Patriots, please.
Yeah, he throws a ton of picks.
The point was more that given the overall package of what he brings (high y/a and ny/a a high TD%, decent Comp%), you could argue that he hasn't been significantly less productive than what Brady is over the last 2 years. and that is a league average or slightly below QB. If you think you can drop his INT % to something closer to his 2017 season with scheme and better protection.... well then you have a top half of the league QB.

I don't know that I want Jameis for various reasons, but he wasn't "terrible" by any stretch, he wasn't one of the worst 5 starters in the league last year or even close to it. He's a flawed player and you have to build around his flaws but he wasn't "terrible".
I kind of ... agree with both of you? I think Jameis has been terrible, but I think he's more interesting than a lot of other options because he does do some things well and if you can get those INTs down, he's useful. That's the kind of mentality that kills coaches, probably. But I'd rather take a gunslinger and try to curb his recklessness than take a Mariota and try to get him to make more plays, even if the latter is maybe a better player.

That said: a) Winston's INTs were absolutely a problem. The Bucs allowed the 6th-fewest yards per drive but finished 29th in scoring D, in large part because their opponents had the third-best starting field position (likely because of the turnovers in large part) and because Winston threw SEVEN pick-sixes. That cancels out a lot of good, and it's one of the major reasons why Brady could make them a ton better. b) As both of you said, I want no part of Winston's off-field. But if he had a clean sheet, he's the most interesting veteran option to me aside from Cam and maybe Kaepernick.
 

NomarsFool

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If you look at the best QBs in the league, I don't think they actually tend to be high draft picks (or at least they don't become successful QBs with the teams that drafted them). So, I'm okay with the Pats taking somebody in the 3rd round + to compete with Stidham. If they find a veteran QB CHEAP, all the better. But, I'm not into paying some retread $21million. I'd rather use that cap money on other parts of the team.
 

DJnVa

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His rating last year was 84.3. His best rating is sub 93. The 5,000+ yards were nice, but he threw 30 picks. That’s more than Brady’s last 4 years combined.
So think about the fact that a dude that threw 22 more INTs than Brady did had a rating only 4 points lower.
 

tims4wins

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If you look at the best QBs in the league, I don't think they actually tend to be high draft picks (or at least they don't become successful QBs with the teams that drafted them). So, I'm okay with the Pats taking somebody in the 3rd round + to compete with Stidham. If they find a veteran QB CHEAP, all the better. But, I'm not into paying some retread $21million. I'd rather use that cap money on other parts of the team.
It’s really quite true. Jackson Mahomes Wilson Rodgers Brady were not top 10 picks. Jimmy. That’s 6 out of 32 that I thought of in less than 5 seconds

Edit Brees Dak Watson Cousins not super high picks. That’s a third of the league. And those are all very good QBs
 

Cellar-Door

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It’s really quite true. Jackson Mahomes Wilson Rodgers Brady were not top 10 picks. Jimmy. That’s 6 out of 32 that I thought of in less than 5 seconds

Edit Brees Dak Watson Cousins not super high picks. That’s a third of the league. And those are all very good QBs
Now the question then becomes.... what impact does stepping into a good team with good coaches/GMs/Owners do for a QB. Top drafted QBs are by definition stepping into teams that were bad. Often those teams were bad not just because the players were bad, but because the whole system is bad. The players listed above all came to teams that have consistently good ownership/management/coaching situations.

Edit- well except Dak I guess, but he did step into the best offensive line in the league which helped.
 

bunchabums

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Obviously I have no idea if Stidham will turn into a serviceable to good to great QB, but having one who can actually pick up a first down with this feet will be a foreign, but pleasant, change from Brady.
 

DourDoerr

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I posted this in the free agency thread, but thought it might be a better fit here:

I thought the same of Newton before but now I'm not so sure - if he'd sign a very team-friendly deal. His career completion of 59.6% is close to Andrew Luck's 60.8% (although, to be fair, it's also close to Blake Bortles - 59.3%) and I've always liked Luck. The interesting thing to me is that Cam posted a career high completion percentage, 67.9%, in 2018 which dwarfed his previous high of 61.7 in 2013. I'm guessing McCaffrey might have been a good-sized factor in the uptick and McC's skillset plays directly into the strength of McD's current offense. Perhaps there's some room for a mid-late career renaissance - especially with the wind of the GOAT HC and a top notch OC at your back. Cam's market is shaping up nicely for the Pats too. I'm liking the idea of adding Newton a lot more than I did a few days ago (although I may still be dazed by TB's departure). More time to evaluate Stidham too.

I'll add that I'm also perfectly fine with going forward with Stidham and let it play out that way. Brave New World.
 
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bakahump

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I worry about BBs record trying to get "Dual threat" QBs. He seems much better at getting "Stand in the pocket" guys. Or better put Pocket Passers that can slide around if necessary. (Brady Obv, Briss, Grapp, Cass)

And with the NFL QB Soup du jour being dual threat guys.... That worries me.
 

Super Nomario

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I worry about BBs record trying to get "Dual threat" QBs. He seems much better at getting "Stand in the pocket" guys. Or better put Pocket Passers that can slide around if necessary. (Brady Obv, Briss, Grapp, Cass)

And with the NFL QB Soup du jour being dual threat guys.... That worries me.
What is his record with dual threat QBs? A camp flyer on Tebow? Signing 40-something Doug Flutie to be the third-stringer?
 

Harry Hooper

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I think BB wants an accurate passer with a low amount of INTs above any other qualities.