2020 Pats Off-Season: QB Discussion Only

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There's a couple scenarios in which Tom Brady does not return to New England in the fall of 2020. Belichick decides he's not worth what he's asking, Tom decides to retire, some other team blows him out of the water with an offer he can't refuse...

If he doesn't return - who do the NEP's turn to?

Is Stidham the answer? He wasn't great in limited action this pre-season. And 3-4 with an interception in the regular season doesn't tell us much.

Kessler is...no.

Here's some notable UFA QBs:
1. Jameis Winston
2. Dak Precott
3. Phillip Rivers
4. Ryan Tannehill
5. Drew Brees
6. Case Keenum
7. Teddy Bridgewater
8. Marcus Mariota

You can pretty much immediately rules out Rivers and Brees. Does anyone else on that list make sense? Tannehill is now 32, but seems to have figured something out in Tennessee this year. Dak could be interesting if JJ decides not to pay him. If this defense returns, is he good enough to bring this offense to the SB?

I don't know enough about football to make an educated guess/argument for any of these guys. But the discussion should at least begin in earnest.
 

E5 Yaz

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If Brady moves on ... find the guy who a) can read defenses, 2) doesn't force things and c) is professional enough to handle the media and fan scrutiny of being the guy to replace Brady.

If they really like Stidham, a stop-gap professional for a year or two isn't the worst way to go. Bridgewater, on that list, seems like the best fit
 

Soxy Brown

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I'd second Bridgewater, though I still think Brady is coming back.

I've always been a Teddy Bridgewater fan. He's probably got the most likelihood to outperform his contract out of anyone else on that list, and he shouldn't be all that expensive for a QB. Have him and Stidham compete, that wouldn't be a bad situation.
 

snowmanny

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Yes I was going to say Bridgewater. A lot of folks wanted to pick him as the heir years ago. Did well in Minnesota. Did well in NO. Likely not super-expensive. Has excellent initials.
 

lexrageorge

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Here's some notable UFA QBs:
1. Jameis Winston
2. Dak Precott
3. Phillip Rivers
4. Ryan Tannehill
5. Drew Brees
6. Case Keenum
7. Teddy Bridgewater
8. Marcus Mariota

You can pretty much immediately rules out Rivers and Brees. Does anyone else on that list make sense? Tannehill is now 32, but seems to have figured something out in Tennessee this year. Dak could be interesting if JJ decides not to pay him. If this defense returns, is he good enough to bring this offense to the SB?

I don't know enough about football to make an educated guess/argument for any of these guys. But the discussion should at least begin in earnest.
Cam Newton is likely to be available as a cap casualty. But he may retire if he's cut.

I think Bridgewater checks a lot of boxes, but he may not come as cheap as some hope. It would be interesting if the Pats think they can coach Winston to the next level.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Cam Newton is likely to be available as a cap casualty. But he may retire if he's cut.

I think Bridgewater checks a lot of boxes, but he may not come as cheap as some hope. It would be interesting if the Pats think they can coach Winston to the next level.
Stay the FUCK away from Winston. No no no no

He’s not fixing his ball security issues this deep into his career.
 

8slim

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I don’t even want to think about this until it is unavoidable.

Everyone who is spouting some “time to move on” nonsense please look at that list. It’s horrendous.
 

BigSoxFan

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Stay the FUCK away from Winston. No no no no

He’s not fixing his ball security issues this deep into his career.
Seriously. He threw 30 INTs with a FAR better supporting cast than he’d have here. It would be a disaster.
 

jmanny24

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I don’t even want to think about this until it is unavoidable.

Everyone who is spouting some “time to move on” nonsense please look at that list. It’s horrendous.
Of course they all look horrendous when you're talking about moving on from the goat, I'd absolutely be on board with Bridgewater if it has to be someone else.
 

Deathofthebambino

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First of all, the thread title is wrong. "Him" should be capitalized.

Second of all, for folks that are thinking about guys like Dak. He's going to get like 30-35 million a year. If Brady leaves, we have a cap hit of 13.5 million in dead money. It will cost close to 50mil next year against the cap to get a guy like Dak.
 

Super Nomario

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Cam Newton is likely to be available as a cap casualty. But he may retire if he's cut.
Why wouldn't Carolina bring Cam back? Kyle Allen started hot but was so bad he got benched down the stretch.

To me, there are four options, and only two of them make sense:
1) Bring back Brady
2) Hand the reins to Stidham
3) Sign a FA
4) Draft a rookie

1 is obvious. 2 makes sense if they love what they've seen from Stidham behind the scenes; it lets them save a ton of money. 3 makes little sense, as a departing Brady's cap hit doubles and you're unlikely to find a cheaper option in the market. 4 makes little sense as you're unlikely to find a guy who can start in the back end of round one.
 

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Why wouldn't Carolina bring Cam back? Kyle Allen started hot but was so bad he got benched down the stretch.

To me, there are four options, and only two of them make sense:
1) Bring back Brady
2) Hand the reins to Stidham
3) Sign a FA
4) Draft a rookie

1 is obvious. 2 makes sense if they love what they've seen from Stidham behind the scenes; it lets them save a ton of money. 3 makes little sense, as a departing Brady's cap hit doubles and you're unlikely to find a cheaper option in the market. 4 makes little sense as you're unlikely to find a guy who can start in the back end of round one.
I don't know how else this should play out, exactly in that order.

As I mentioned in the WCG thread, the level of offensive talent between NE and NO/MN arfe pretty astounding. If TB12 had just ONE of Thielen, Cook, Kamara, Rudolph, Diggs (duh), or Thomas (duh x 2), does anyone here doubt that they'll be traveling to KC next weekend?
 

Captaincoop

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I don’t even want to think about this until it is unavoidable.

Everyone who is spouting some “time to move on” nonsense please look at that list. It’s horrendous.
OK, and then everyone who wants to roll this team back out there next year with Brady making >20M again (that's what it's going to take), explain how you improve the team enough to win a Super Bowl?

IMO, next year is not going to be good. It can either be not good with a 43 year old declining QB taking up a huge chunk of cap space, and we can waste another season of Belichick's career, or it can be not good in service of trying to build another contender over the next few years while we have Bill around.
 

Kramerica Industries

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I don't know how else this should play out, exactly in that order.

As I mentioned in the WCG thread, the level of offensive talent between NE and NO/MN arfe pretty astounding. If TB12 had just ONE of Thielen, Cook, Kamara, Rudolph, Diggs (duh), or Thomas (duh x 2), does anyone here doubt that they'll be traveling to KC next weekend?
I doubt it.

KC would be traveling here
 

Deathofthebambino

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I don't know how else this should play out, exactly in that order.

As I mentioned in the WCG thread, the level of offensive talent between NE and NO/MN arfe pretty astounding. If TB12 had just ONE of Thielen, Cook, Kamara, Rudolph, Diggs (duh), or Thomas (duh x 2), does anyone here doubt that they'll be traveling to KC next weekend?
I doubt it.

KC would be coming here next weekend, if the Pats didn't get the #1 seed.
 

8slim

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OK, and then everyone who wants to roll this team back out there next year with Brady making >20M again (that's what it's going to take), explain how you improve the team enough to win a Super Bowl?

IMO, next year is not going to be good. It can either be not good with a 43 year old declining QB taking up a huge chunk of cap space, and we can waste another season of Belichick's career, or it can be not good in service of trying to build another contender over the next few years while we have Bill around.
Well, if you know what it’s going to take, then I guess that’s settled.

You’re on record as saying next year will suck no matter what. Repeatedly. Noted.
 

Captaincoop

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Well, if you know what it’s going to take, then I guess that’s settled.

You’re on record as saying next year will suck no matter what. Repeatedly. Noted.
So, let me understand. You think Brady will come back and play for a salary on par with the ten lowest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL next year?
 

snowmanny

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So, let me understand. You think Brady will come back and play for a salary on par with the ten lowest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL next year?
I think he is saying they could improve the team and be competitive. They were not light years away this year.
 

Deathofthebambino

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So, let me understand. You think Brady will come back and play for a salary on par with the ten lowest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL next year?
No, but why should he? He's not one of the ten worst QB's in the NFL. And it's not even close.

But go ahead, post your statistics with no context, no evaluation of the skill players, the lack of a running game, the disaster that was the offensive line or anything else. Forget all the drops, the bad routes, the throwaways. Your stats will show that he's one of the worst. Maybe ever. Fuck it, they should just dump him for a bag of balls. Roll Stidham out there, go 5-11, and just keep doing that until BB gets the wins record in 4-5 years and head's off into the sunset.
 

jmanny24

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No, but why should he? He's not one of the ten worst QB's in the NFL. And it's not even close.

But go ahead, post your statistics with no context, no evaluation of the skill players, the lack of a running game, the disaster that was the offensive line or anything else. Forget all the drops, the bad routes, the throwaways. Your stats will show that he's one of the worst. Maybe ever. Fuck it, they should just dump him for a bag of balls. Roll Stidham out there, go 5-11, and just keep doing that until BB gets the wins record in 4-5 years and head's off into the sunset.
I believe that's his point, there won't be a discount this time (if he stays) which leaves little room to improve the skill positions responsible for the drops, bad routes, throwaways, etc.
 

8slim

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So, let me understand. You think Brady will come back and play for a salary on par with the ten lowest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL next year?
I think the Pats are incredibly well run and have a knack for figuring things out. Hence the past 19 years. I also think this team is much closer to being positioned to make a run in 2020, than needing to be blown up. I’ll wait a few weeks to see how things play out before I start clamoring for some vague “rebuild” that is sure to work, because they always do.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I believe that's his point, there won't be a discount this time (if he stays) which leaves little room to improve the skill positions responsible for the drops, bad routes, throwaways, etc.
$20-$25million is a discount. Starting QB's in the NFL like Jared Goff are getting 35million a year. Russell Wilson gets 35mil/year, Kirk Cousins gets 28mil/year, Derek Carr is at 25mil, Wentz is making 32mil/year, etc.

Do people really think Brady is worth 15mil/year or something? I don't understand. If he's looking for something like 35-40mil/year, then so be it, let him walk, but I highly, highly doubt that's the case. If they offered him 2yrs/50mil right now, I'd bet he'd take it. Same as Brees.
 

jmanny24

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$20-$25million is a discount. Starting QB's in the NFL like Jared Goff are getting 35million a year. Russell Wilson gets 35mil/year, Kirk Cousins gets 28mil/year, Derek Carr is at 25mil, Wentz is making 32mil/year, etc.

Do people really think Brady is worth 15mil/year or something? I don't understand. If he's looking for something like 35-40mil/year, then so be it, let him walk, but I highly, highly doubt that's the case. If they offered him 2yrs/50mil right now, I'd bet he'd take it. Same as Brees.
I was trying to back you in that he probably isn't going to take the type of discount he has in the past, nor should he anymore IMO, and that will make it difficult cap-wise. Sorry if I worded it poorly.
 

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Talent aside, Brisgewater brings a team-first mentality, and (music to BB ears) big time toughness. That injury he came back from was no joke.

To be clear, I want TB12 back at almost any cost. But if he moves on, Brisgewater is miles better than the reasonable alternatives.
 

tims4wins

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Why wouldn’t Brady come back at some sort of discount? Why do people think now, headed toward 43, he wants to finally cash in? DotB has bingo, if they offer him 2 years at $40-50M he probably takes it.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I was trying to back you in that he probably isn't going to take the type of discount he has in the past, nor should he anymore IMO, and that will make it difficult cap-wise. Sorry if I worded it poorly.
Gotcha. The reality is Brady knows he can't come back demanding 30mil a year. His cap hit would be too high, and it would hamstring the team's roster. He's understood this for 20 years, and people think he's all of a sudden going to try for every dollar he can get, even if it puts him in a worse spot to win, has to force him to move his family, etc.

A guy like Bridgewater, who I like as a stopgap, is going to cost probably 20mil/year. That would be my guess. When you factor in Brady's dead money if he walks, you're committing 33.5million of the cap to the QB position if you pay Teddy 20mil. Do people think Brady is going to try to extort the Pats for 35mil/year? I don't. And if I have a choice of Brady at 30mil (with his cap hits) and Bridgewater at 33.5mil (with Brady's dead money), it's a no-brainer.

The point is regardless of whether or not they re-sign Brady, they are going to have salary cap issues, unless they roll Stidham out there or another QB on a rookie deal. So, IMO, the question truly becomes "Do you try to make a couple more runs with TB12 and BB" or "Do you blow it up right now and hope you can find the next QB at some point in the next year or two?" Finding QB's is fucking hard. Thus, I'm always going to err on the side of the GOAT we know versus the rookie we don't.
 

jmanny24

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Gotcha. The reality is Brady knows he can't come back demanding 30mil a year. His cap hit would be too high, and it would hamstring the team's roster. He's understood this for 20 years, and people think he's all of a sudden going to try for every dollar he can get, even if it puts him in a worse spot to win, has to force him to move his family, etc.

A guy like Bridgewater, who I like as a stopgap, is going to cost probably 20mil/year. That would be my guess. When you factor in Brady's dead money if he walks, you're committing 33.5million of the cap to the QB position if you pay Teddy 20mil. Do people think Brady is going to try to extort the Pats for 35mil/year? I don't. And if I have a choice of Brady at 30mil (with his cap hits) and Bridgewater at 33.5mil (with Brady's dead money), it's a no-brainer.

The point is regardless of whether or not they re-sign Brady, they are going to have salary cap issues, unless they roll Stidham out there or another QB on a rookie deal. So, IMO, the question truly becomes "Do you try to make a couple more runs with TB12 and BB" or "Do you blow it up right now and hope you can find the next QB at some point in the next year or two?" Finding QB's is fucking hard. Thus, I'm always going to err on the side of the GOAT we know versus the rookie we don't.
I agree with this 100% and I think as some people have noted that with such cap issues, can they really upgrade where they need to in order to help the QB? Is this receiving corp being another year older going to be able to get more separation? Which was obviously a major problem.
 

BigSoxFan

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Why wouldn’t Brady come back at some sort of discount? Why do people think now, headed toward 43, he wants to finally cash in? DotB has bingo, if they offer him 2 years at $40-50M he probably takes it.
Agreed. He seemingly wants the multi-year commitment. The conflict here is does Belichick the GM want to give him that?
 

Deathofthebambino

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I agree with this 100% and I think as some people have noted that with such cap issues, can they really upgrade where they need to in order to help the QB? Is this receiving corp being another year older going to be able to get more separation? Which was obviously a major problem.
That's part of my point. They went 12-4 this year and lost a close game in the Wild Card. They just aren't as far away as people are acting. Teddy Bridgewater looked adequate with Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook. How would he look with the slowest, most useless skill position players in the NFL? I guarantee he's not going 12-4 with them. Give Brady even a little bit of help, and he can take this team back to a Super Bowl. I don't believe Teddy Bridgewater (or basically anyone else that might be available) can do that with minimal roster tinkering. He's going to need studs around him to get this team to where Brady has it with no help.
 

jmanny24

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That's part of my point. They went 12-4 this year and lost a close game in the Wild Card. They just aren't as far away as people are acting. Teddy Bridgewater looked adequate with Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook. How would he look with the slowest, most useless skill position players in the NFL? I guarantee he's not going 12-4 with them. Give Brady even a little bit of help, and he can take this team back to a Super Bowl. I don't believe Teddy Bridgewater (or basically anyone else that might be available) can do that with minimal roster tinkering. He's going to need studs around him to get this team to where Brady has it with no help.
Out of curiosity, who do you target? Another rookie WR? a FA? My first target might be Hunter Henry and as much as people won't like it, maybe Tee Higgins at 23?
 

Marciano490

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After watching Metcalf, who are the stud WRs available in this year’s draft?
 

Seels

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Jeudy and Cee Dee Lamb are both probably going in the top 10-12 picks. But if either of them fell to late teens, I would hope the Pats would consider a trade up.
 

BigSoxFan

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Jeudy and Cee Dee Lamb are both probably going in the top 10-12 picks. But if either of them fell to late teens, I would hope the Pats would consider a trade up.
Ruggs
Tee Higgins
Justin Jefferson

This is another good WR class. We need one of these guys.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Out of curiosity, who do you target? Another rookie WR? a FA? My first target might be Hunter Henry and as much as people won't like it, maybe Tee Higgins at 23?
Well, it all depends on whether or not TB12 is here or not. I haven't handicapped the draft yet, but IIRC, this class is supposedly strong at the tight end position. I'm a huge fan of Brycen Hopkins out of Purdue, and he should be available later in the 1st round. Tee Higgins is the #2 receiver on Kiper's board and #10 overall prospect, so I'm not sure he lasts until #23, but if CeeDee Lamb is there, I'd jump all over him. The combine is going to shake a lot of stuff out too, DK Metcalf was a prospect, but he wasn't DK METCALF until he showed up at the combine looking like a God. No idea who will be available on the free agent wire between now and then, and who might be available in trade. The Pats have a bunch of fairly high priced guys coming up on free agency, or looking for extensions too, so it's way too hard to predict much right now, but IMO, Tom Brady needs a tight end to take attention in the middle of the field, and try to open up the outside, so if there is a really good one there at #23, that's where I'm looking.
 

Marciano490

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I wonder if that’s part of the package to lure Brady to stay. The old wisdom about rookie receivers not impacting teams doesn’t seem to hold true lately. If Edelman is healthy, Harry progresses and there’s another Day 1 stud WR added to the mix, that’s a solid core, plus a nice foundation for whoever takes over at QB down the road.
 

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Josh McCown is not a bad in-case-break-glass option, otherwise known as the neither-here-nor-there option. To many GMs fall for that conservative trap and highly doubt BB is one of them.
 

Captaincoop

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$20-$25million is a discount. Starting QB's in the NFL like Jared Goff are getting 35million a year. Russell Wilson gets 35mil/year, Kirk Cousins gets 28mil/year, Derek Carr is at 25mil, Wentz is making 32mil/year, etc.

Do people really think Brady is worth 15mil/year or something? I don't understand. If he's looking for something like 35-40mil/year, then so be it, let him walk, but I highly, highly doubt that's the case. If they offered him 2yrs/50mil right now, I'd bet he'd take it. Same as Brees.
That was exactly my point. I said it would take at least $20m/yr to sign Brady...the poster above responded as though Brady would sign for less.

Once you have Brady signed up for that kind of money, I don't see how they can address all the other needs this team has. But I guess others feel that they can run this team back with some changes around the margins and compete for a championship.
 

Captaincoop

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That's part of my point. They went 12-4 this year and lost a close game in the Wild Card. They just aren't as far away as people are acting. Teddy Bridgewater looked adequate with Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook. How would he look with the slowest, most useless skill position players in the NFL? I guarantee he's not going 12-4 with them. Give Brady even a little bit of help, and he can take this team back to a Super Bowl. I don't believe Teddy Bridgewater (or basically anyone else that might be available) can do that with minimal roster tinkering. He's going to need studs around him to get this team to where Brady has it with no help.
But Teddy Bridgewater, or whatever QB they bring in, won't be 43 years old. He'll be part of what they're building beyond 2020.

This year obviously wasn't a disaster in a vacuum. If we had a 27 year old QB and had this year, we'd all be on the same page that we are building something good. That's not the case right now, though.
 

TSC

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That was exactly my point. I said it would take at least $20m/yr to sign Brady...the poster above responded as though Brady would sign for less.

Once you have Brady signed up for that kind of money, I don't see how they can address all the other needs this team has. But I guess others feel that they can run this team back with some changes around the margins and compete for a championship.
Hey cool maybe this should all go in the Brady thread and not the "what if Brady isn't here" thread.
 

Deathofthebambino

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But Teddy Bridgewater, or whatever QB they bring in, won't be 43 years old. He'll be part of what they're building beyond 2020.

This year obviously wasn't a disaster in a vacuum. If we had a 27 year old QB and had this year, we'd all be on the same page that we are building something good. That's not the case right now, though.
But they can't build anything with Bridgewater. What do you think he's going to command in free agency? It'll cost them more to sign Bridgewater to 20mil than it will cost to pay Brady 25mil. So, you're getting worse at the QB position, while also having even less money to spread around. Then Bridgewater gives you what, a 5-7 win season, you end up in the middle of the first round and you have an average QB signed to a long term deal. What's the upside? The stronger argument is to just blow it up, roll with Stidham, become a doormat for a couple years while replenishing the coffers through the draft and free agency.

I guess my question is why do you think they can't compete for a Championship with some improvement on the margins? They finished with 12 wins, with what I would argue, is the worst set of skill position players in the NFL, an offensive line held together by duct tape and a running game that was non-existent and couldn't get them a yard when they needed it most. A couple changes to the offense for the better, some better injury luck and I don't see why they can't continue to be just as competitive for the next couple years with BB and TB12.
 

lexrageorge

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That was exactly my point. I said it would take at least $20m/yr to sign Brady...the poster above responded as though Brady would sign for less.

Once you have Brady signed up for that kind of money, I don't see how they can address all the other needs this team has. But I guess others feel that they can run this team back with some changes around the margins and compete for a championship.
We're not starting with the Redskins roster here.

If the sign Brady to an extension, they can play their usual cap games to push things off a couple of years. Not ideal, but could be a lot less risky than potentially signing the next Brock Osweiler (my concern with bringing in a Bridgewater). And this is the time we need to point out that our AFC East rivals have invested lots of draft capital into QB's, and only Josh Allen and Tannehill have led their teams to the playoffs in recent memory; oops, I forgot Tyrod Taylor, but not sure that changes my point.

They can save $6.5M (and improve their current roster) by cutting Sanu. They can probably save some by restructuring Gilmore or Hightower. And they have to draft well. But they have to do that no matter what path they take.
 

jmanny24

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But they can't build anything with Bridgewater. What do you think he's going to command in free agency? It'll cost them more to sign Bridgewater to 20mil than it will cost to pay Brady 25mil. So, you're getting worse at the QB position, while also having even less money to spread around. Then Bridgewater gives you what, a 5-7 win season, you end up in the middle of the first round and you have an average QB signed to a long term deal. What's the upside? The stronger argument is to just blow it up, roll with Stidham, become a doormat for a couple years while replenishing the coffers through the draft and free agency.

I guess my question is why do you think they can't compete for a Championship with some improvement on the margins? They finished with 12 wins, with what I would argue, is the worst set of skill position players in the NFL, an offensive line held together by duct tape and a running game that was non-existent and couldn't get them a yard when they needed it most. A couple changes to the offense for the better, some better injury luck and I don't see why they can't continue to be just as competitive for the next couple years with BB and TB12.
The OL is one area I think they will be better with just some health and maybe contributions from the redshirt guys. But in terms of WR if you have Brady or another vet QB the top guys are probably out of their price range, so are they looking at guys like Perriman, Allison, etc.? And is that enough? I'm definitely with DoTB, they need someone to open up the middle of the field that's why I thought Henry would be my first target if the money could work.
 

Deathofthebambino

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32,153
We're not starting with the Redskins roster here.

If the sign Brady to an extension, they can play their usual cap games to push things off a couple of years. Not ideal, but could be a lot less risky than potentially signing the next Brock Osweiler (my concern with bringing in a Bridgewater). And this is the time we need to point out that our AFC East rivals have invested lots of draft capital into QB's, and only Josh Allen and Tannehill have led their teams to the playoffs in recent memory; oops, I forgot Tyrod Taylor, but not sure that changes my point.

They can save $6.5M (and improve their current roster) by cutting Sanu. They can probably save some by restructuring Gilmore or Hightower. And they have to draft well. But they have to do that no matter what path they take.
DMC is an unrestricted free agent this season too, so thats another 10mil off the books (although I imagine they try to re-sign him, but he isn't getting that kind of money again, and his brother still has a year left, so he has incentive to work with the team and sign a friendly deal. Roberts and Collins are UFA"s, as are Dorsett, Slater, Watson, Thuney, Karras, Shelton, Van Noy, Butler, and a few other guys.

This team is going to look a lot different next year than this one, with or without Brady, and with that many guys going into free agency, there will be some money to spread around, some guys they can restructure, etc.