Lots of if's looking ahead, as there often are, but I'm not sure if any of them are wildly far-fetched.
If . . .
- they can find a WR1. This moves JE11 back to where he belongs, while allowing Harry to take over as a WR3 where I think he could do some real damage. Ditto Meyers as a WR4.
- they can find a TE1. Eric Ebron? Tyler Eifert?
- Andrews can return to full-time.
- Mason can fix whatever ailed him for the first half of the year.
- Cajuste can be a starting tackle, either replacing Cannon on the right side, or slotting in at LT while Wynn bumps over to LG to replace Thuney.
Over-The-Cap shows the Pats with $49M in room right now, but there are a bunch of easy cuts which could free up a lot more:
- Sanu -- saves $6.5M (replace with Gunner)
- Jason McC -- $4M (replace with Williams)
- Cannon -- $3.8M (although leaving with $5.1M dead money). Replace with Newhouse (who looked much better at his natural RT) or with Cajuste
- Bethel -- $2M (replace with draft pick)
- Lacosse -- $1.4M (replace with Ebron or Eifert)
- Develin --- $1.25M (replace with Johnson)
- Brooks -- $1.5M (replace with draft pick)
- Ghost -- $3.4
That's over $23M in savings with the only money not currently allocated would be for TE1. If you assume $5M cap hit in year one of a multi-year TE1 deal, that would give them just over $65M to fill the following spots:
- WR1
- Starting safety (to replace DMac)
- OLB (to replace Van Noy)
- K
- DT (to replace Shelton and Butler)
- and QB1, which in my view, in light of the above, makes it much more reasonable that you could sign him
I want to add onto this as well as dissect it a bit.
Re the needing a WR1. I don’t think of it as a WR1 but more of an outside guy. Sanu, Edelman, Meyers, and maybe not even Harry are going to perform best outside. You don’t need a burner X receiver or even a great one but someone who can run the routes well and get on the same page as Brady. You need a competent if not spectacular X receiver. That lets people play in their best spots.
I think Harry was the right idea of a potential versatile guy and someone who can play outside but he was injured and a rookie. I’d also argue that Harry might have not been the right guy but... that doesn’t matter now.
I think Edelman can be a #1 like Welker was a #1. With Sanu I wonder if it’s just his timing because he gets separation In many of his routes but the throws to him are off. Also, that ankle and pushing off it on breaks has got to limit him. No excuses for the drops.
You can save some cash by cutting Sanu but he’s been a reliable producer in 2 stops. He had a good game against Baltimore and got hurt. I think he’s the kind of guy you want to keep for a year and see if his chemistry builds with Brady. I don’t think he’s cut before camp.
My biggest objection is that I don’t think Gunner is anywhere near ready to be a 600-800 yards a season guy. He’s a cool story and I like his potential and versatility but he had 2 receptions for 34 yards. It’s way too optimistic imo that a guy with 2 career receptions can replace a guy with over 400. It will be hard to carry Edelman, Sanu, Harry, Meyers, and Gunner because they will need to add another guy who can play X.
I have no idea what they do at tight end. I can’t stress how much a good blocker seam buster would help in the red zone.
Hands off Bethel. He’s an elite STer. Slater might retire. Bethel is worth every penny of that 2M.
Sanu and Burkhead are the easiest guys trade or maybe Cannon but you’d be selling low on him.
