2020 Pats: Defense Discussion

BaseballJones

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Worth talking about in its own thread.

Yesterday two rookie LBs were out - Jennings and Uche. Both have the potential to be dynamic players. Haven't seen Uche yet. Hoping they both play together soon. LBs need their playmaking ability.

The secondary has struggled. Gilmore in particular. His stats against the past 3 seasons:

2018: 48.4% completion, 11.3 yds/comp, 5.5 yds/target, 73.9 rating
2019: 50.5% completion, 11.7 yds/comp, 5.9 yds/target, 44.1 rating
2020: 61.5% completion, 18.5 yds/comp, 11.4 yds/target, 94.4 rating

That's....a problem. Add in three big DPI penalties and the fact is... he just hasn't been good, never mind DPOY caliber. But it's not just him.

JC Jackson
2018: 48.9% completion, 11.6 yds/comp, 5.7 yds/target, 38.8 rating
2019: 53.2% completion, 9.6 yds/comp, 5.1 yds/target, 34.1 rating
2020: 57.1% completion, 11.5 yds/comp, 6.6 yds/target, 77.1 rating

Jason McCourty
2018: 52.5% completion, 15.2 yds/comp, 8.0 yds/target, 91.7 rating
2019: 48.2% completion, 9.9 yds/comp, 4.8 yds/target, 54.7 rating
2020: 80.0% completion, 15.8 yds/comp, 12.6 yds/target, 158.3 rating (only 5 attempts, but still)

So their top three corners are all playing *significantly* worse than they did in 2019. As a team, the Pats have allowed just 182, 275, and 249 yards (235.3 avg), so the sheer number of yards isn't a huge problem. But they've been helped by the Pats' offense, which has possessed the ball for a long time. Moreover, the run defense has allowed 87, 154, and 126 yards (122.3 avg) which has opened up the passing for opposing QBs. Fortunately, the Pats have gotten turnovers (7 in 3 games), which has been a huge help. But so far, the defense is a far cry from what it was last year. Now, it doesn't have to be THAT good in order for the Pats to be good. Right now they're #11 in the NFL in scoring defense, and #12 in yards allowed defense, so they're not BAD. In fact, they're still pretty good.

Miami: scored 28 and 31 points against non-NE opponents, scored just 11 against NE (NE -18.5 compared to Mia's other opponents)
Seattle: scored 38 and 38 points against non-NE opponents, scored 35 against NE (NE -3.0 compared to Sea's other opponents)
Vegas: scored 34 and 34 points against non-NE opponents, scored 20 against NE (NE -14.0 compared to LV's other opponents)

In other words, the Pats have held each of these three teams to fewer points than they've scored against their non-NE opponents. So they're doing a good overall job. But they're not ELITE. Not so far.
 

Fishercat

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I hesitate to ascribe too much to any particular player right now. Three games in and I feel like Belichick defenses tend to have more issues early on than later in the year, especially with the number of notable opt-outs the team had. Also, you make the point that despite the three individual CBs showing worse individual numbers, the defense on the whole has been at least above average (given how the other three offenses performed in their other games, possibly more than that). There's only so many ways you can have a good pass defense (which NE has been so far, 12th or so in passing YPG despite being up in two of the games) while those individual numbers that are presented are down...and to me it means that they're probably not being targeted as much or someone else is picking up the slack. In this case it's probably a bit of both.

Gilmore is on the field 97% of the time and tied for 36th in targets. Jonathan Jones is their second most played DB at 84% and is T-107. JC Jackson is on 2/3 of the snaps and is T-127. Jason McCourty is on 60% of the time and has been targeted five times. These are not huge target numbers relative to the amount of time played, so either teams are getting fewer opportunities to throw overall (given the run heavy offense I wouldn't be shocked) or they're doing a really good job at taking away opportunities to be targeted. I can't say those yards/tgt or yards/att numbers are good at all because they're not

Adrian Phillips may also be an unsung factor on this. Patrick Chung wasn't a pass coverage stud but was quite adept at filling in where needed. Adrian Phillips is getting most of the SS snaps and through the years where we have the advanced stats on it, doesn't seem to be particularly adept at pass coverage (and is worse in the very small sample this year).

Either way, I wouldn't hold too much of it to much value right now. Too many weird, individual factors to clean much value from anything: Gilmore was DPOTY last year and got thoroughly beat by Devante Parker in week 17. I'm still pretty encouraged by all of it really. 2-1 against three teams who very much seem to be game to play well and competitive in that loss to the end.
 

Super Nomario

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In other words, the Pats have held each of these three teams to fewer points than they've scored against their non-NE opponents. So they're doing a good overall job. But they're not ELITE. Not so far.
They have been pretty bad on a per-play basis but they've made up for it with turnovers. Two defensive scores in three games and seven total takeaways. We've seen in the past Patriots defenses that got tons of turnovers in the regular season, only for the well to dry up come playoff time. I'd feel better if they were stopping the run (4.6 YPC against, 22nd) or pass (7.4 YPA against, 26th) better, but there's a lot of season left.
 

tims4wins

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Per PFF (I think), Wino is one of only 3 guys in the league ranking in the top 20 against both the run and pass. One of the other two is Mack I think. Will try to find the stat.
 

RG33

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This defense was not going to be as good as last year without Hightower/Chung/VN/Collins/Roberts -- I'm pretty happy with how they have held up so far. The annual BB adjustments, some likely mid-season pickups/trades, they just need this defense to be top half to be a credible postseason threat this year.
 

Saints Rest

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They are missing two players who were expected to be run-stoppers: Jennings and Allen. Maybe those guys will make a difference, maybe not. But the whole defense will look better when the run defense improves. Gruden helped yesterday by getting away from the run that was scorching them early.

I think this defense in general, and the pass D in particular, can and will do just fine if they can turn 2nd and 3rd downs into obvious passing downs.
 

Harry Hooper

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They are missing two players who were expected to be run-stoppers: Jennings and Allen. Maybe those guys will make a difference, maybe not. But the whole defense will look better when the run defense improves. Gruden helped yesterday by getting away from the run that was scorching them early.

I think this defense in general, and the pass D in particular, can and will do just fine if they can turn 2nd and 3rd downs into obvious passing downs.
Yes, giving up 5-7 yards on 1st-down runs is not going to work long-term.
 

Soxy

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And speaking of missing persons, I know Uche is expected to help more in passing situations, but is that solely as a pass rusher or can he be a cover guy? Anytime Bentley has to cover anyone, I get worried.
I expected Uche to be more of a situational pass rusher this year, but that was also before half the defense opted out. The beat reporters who saw him in camp made it sound like the Pats were moving him around a lot. Part of that was likely to make up for the lack of spring mini-camps, but those same beat writers also made it sound like the Pats were envisioning him as more of a multifaceted player than as simply a one-dimensional pass rusher, even as a rookie.

With the dearth of true LBs on this team, I wouldn't be shocked if Uche ends up with a much larger role than what was initially projected. Rivers has kind of been that situational pass rusher thus far anyways, but what they really need right now is a solid LB. Hightower's absence has been felt.

Who knows how much the injury sets Uche back, but I think he gets thrown right into the fire whenever he's ready to play.
 

Super Nomario

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They are missing two players who were expected to be run-stoppers: Jennings and Allen. Maybe those guys will make a difference, maybe not. But the whole defense will look better when the run defense improves. Gruden helped yesterday by getting away from the run that was scorching them early.

I think this defense in general, and the pass D in particular, can and will do just fine if they can turn 2nd and 3rd downs into obvious passing downs.
Jennings was a healthy scratch yesterday, so they're not really "missing" him. He might play a bigger role as the year goes on ... we'll see.

The Pats are really built to play from ahead, with questions about the pass O and run D. They're not well set up to come back from down two scores.
 

lexrageorge

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Opposing team's possessions against the Pats, ignoring any end of half/game clock runouts:

10 punts
4 INT's
3 fumbles
3 FG (1 short field from a turnover)
1 missed FG (41 yards)
8 TD

Of the 29 possessions, I will toss out the garbage time TD by the Raiders. I could similarly toss out the late INT against the Dolphins, but Miami did have a realistic chance of a comeback at that point, so I will keep it. Of the 3 field goals allowed, one was on a very short field after a turnover, so I will credit the D for that one. I don't credit the D for the missed FG, as it was a make-able 3 points.

So of 28 possessions, 10 were unsuccessful from a defensive point of view, while 18 were successful stops. 7 of those 18 were on turnovers, which do have an element of random luck. At the same time, 2 of those fumble recoveries were on strip sacks, so the D should get some credit.
 

Zososoxfan

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I expected Uche to be more of a situational pass rusher this year, but that was also before half the defense opted out. The beat reporters who saw him in camp made it sound like the Pats were moving him around a lot. Part of that was likely to make up for the lack of spring mini-camps, but those same beat writers also made it sound like the Pats were envisioning him as more of a multifaceted player than as simply a one-dimensional pass rusher, even as a rookie.

With the dearth of true LBs on this team, I wouldn't be shocked if Uche ends up with a much larger role than what was initially projected. Rivers has kind of been that situational pass rusher thus far anyways, but what they really need right now is a solid LB. Hightower's absence has been felt.

Who knows how much the injury sets Uche back, but I think he gets thrown right into the fire whenever he's ready to play.
Uche is a physically gifted player who has some technical chops on the pass rush to go with elite speed/quickness and instinct. However, he played as an undersized end at Michigan and was vulnerable against the run. Because of his lighter frame, he should be alright in pass coverage. He dropped into zone a fair bit at Michigan, which I'm sure BB will use, but I'm still trying to find some info on any instances of him running M2M.
 

DJnVa

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The run stop win rate doesn’t compute with their performance against the run so far
Because you can "win" your block and not make the tackle.

The animation below steps through a typical run play at every tenth of a second. Offense is blue, the ball carrier is green, and the defense is orange. Defenders turn dark red upon winning their block:
View: https://twitter.com/bburkeESPN/status/1303321927130513408


I'd take that to mean they're are getting where they should be but not finishing the play.
 

tims4wins

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Wino gets some love

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/30062108/picking-seven-nfl-breakout-candidates-2020-why-chase-winovich-new-england-patriots-star
No player looks more like a budding star in our metrics than Winovich, who is showing up in the numbers against both the run and the pass. The 2019 third-round pick has some traditional production via 2.5 sacks, but that doesn't tell the full story. His 27% pass rush win rate from the edge is eighth best in the league, and he jumps to fifth on the overall PRWR list thanks to a couple of wins generated from the interior.
View: https://twitter.com/SethWalder/status/1314348985574973441
 

DJnVa

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Why did he fall to the 3rd round? I remember people loving the pick and him when it was made and not really many negatives on his scouting report.

Here's one writeup:

In his final three seasons, Winovich played in all 39 games and racked up 182 tackles, 44.5 tackles for loss and 18 sacks. Undersized but twitchy RDE/OLB prospect with average top-end speed. He has shorter arms but big hands. Winovich makes up for lack of length with outstanding technique. He has an effective array of pass-rush moves and keeps OTs guessing. His feet and hands are always moving. Winovich locates the ball quickly and has very good natural football instincts. He has an elite motor versus the run and as a pass-rusher and is a strong finisher. Winovich is an underrated prospect. He grades out as a NFL contributor ---- likely in a rotational role early in his career. He's a better pass-rusher than run defender but he's not a liability in the run game. He also has the mentality to contribute on special teams. Winovich projects as a Day 2 pick in 2019. -- Feb. 20, 2019
There was some talk if his high motor would translate to NFL.
 

tims4wins

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That write-up is amazing spot-on for his actual pro career. He spent most of last year as a situational pass rusher, doing a pretty good job. Not great against the run. Contributed a ton to special teams. This year, everything is better.
Seriously, not sure I have ever seen a more accurate summary coming out of college
 

Super Nomario

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Why did he fall to the 3rd round? I remember people loving the pick and him when it was made and not really many negatives on his scouting report.
I think it's some combo of:
1) Not quite ideal size for a 4-3 DE but questions about his coverage ability as a 3-4 OLB.
2) He has a big personality that may not be for everybody.
3) He tested great but the athleticism didn't always show up on tape. I also think evaluators / teams / scouts underrate the athleticism of white players at positions that are thought to require a lot of raw athleticism, like edge rusher. (Yes, there are exceptions like the Bosas, but they had NFL bloodlines)
 

tims4wins

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I think it's some combo of:
1) Not quite ideal size for a 4-3 DE but questions about his coverage ability as a 3-4 OLB.
2) He has a big personality that may not be for everybody.
3) He tested great but the athleticism didn't always show up on tape. I also think evaluators / teams / scouts underrate the athleticism of white players at positions that are thought to require a lot of raw athleticism, like edge rusher. (Yes, there are exceptions like the Bosas, but they had NFL bloodlines)
Interesting when you think about TJ Watt though... similar in a lot of ways, but he DID have the bloodline.
 

BaseballJones

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It felt like a pretty bad game by the Pats' D yesterday, yet at the end of the day, the results were pretty solid: 18 points, 299 yards, 15 first downs allowed, while getting 2 turnovers. It was their second lowest point total, and second lowest yardage total allowed this year.

So far, they've faced the following teams:

Mia: #22 in yards, #14 in points
Sea: #8 in yards, #1 in points
LV: #6 in yards, #7 in points
KC: #3 in yards, #9 in points
Den: #29 in yards, #29 in points

So that's one bad offense (Den), one mediocre offense (Mia) and three excellent offenses (Sea, LV, KC). And NE is allowing 22 points and 339 yards a game. If NE's opponents were its own NFL team, based on what the Pats have allowed, it would represent the #24 scoring offense and #27 yardage offense in the league. Adjusted for the caliber of opponents, and I'd say that the Patriots' defense has actually been pretty damned good so far this year. Especially because the offense has been pretty unhelpful. NE's offense has averaged just 22 points a game as well, and though they've gained a solid 374 yards a game, they've also committed 10 turnovers already. NE had 15 giveaways all last season and through 5 games has 10 already. A turnover represents roughly 50 yards of field position on average, which translates to about 2.5 expected points. So their offense is often putting the defense in bad spots, or in some cases, leading directly to points (like on KC's pick six).

Overall, the defense has been doing its job this year, especially given the caliber of opponents.
 

BigJimEd

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Part of that is the number of drives though. Pats D is 24th in defensive yds per drive and 12th in def pts per drive.

Offense is 4th in yds per drive but only 23rd in pts per drive due in part to red zone efficiency and average starting position.
 

DJnVa

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Part of that is the number of drives though. Pats D is 24th in defensive yds per drive and 12th in def pts per drive.
Isn't that by design? I think most Pats teams are known for that--teams can drive, but they toughen up in red zone.

Offense is 4th in yds per drive but only 23rd in pts per drive due in part to red zone efficiency and average starting position.
Choosing to be optimistic, I would think that as Josh and Cam become more familiar with each other, they can become more efficient in the red zone. That said, we're almost a third of way through season, so....
 

BaseballJones

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So I know this is a comment about the offense, but it's been a weird freaking year for this team. First, Cam comes on board and gets very little time to practice with the team, with no preseason games.

Then the past two games, you had Cam out with Covid and Brian Hoyer in his place, and that's just something you totally write off, in large part because of Hoyer's mistakes. You cannot win in the NFL if Brian Hoyer is your QB (I mean, maybe you can win a game or two here and there, but you can't WIN). So forget that game. Then this week, you have a team with huge numbers of key injuries, plus the team had 2 practices in 2 weeks, plus Cam is coming off Covid. I mean...it's obviously not going to look right.

So in-between all that, you had three games to start the year. I'll count yesterday's game anyway (but not the Hoyer game). So for giggles...

2019 Patriots, last 8 games (including playoffs): 20.4 points, 333.8 yards, 21.3 first downs
2020 Patriots, Cam's 4 games: 24.8 points, 378.8 yards, 24.3 first downs

The offense, believe it or not, looks better with Cam (even given the ridiculous circumstances in which he's playing) than it did during the second half of last year with Brady. Largely the same personnel around the QB.
 

BigJimEd

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Isn't that by design? I think most Pats teams are known for that--teams can drive, but they toughen up in red zone.

Choosing to be optimistic, I would think that as Josh and Cam become more familiar with each other, they can become more efficient in the red zone. That said, we're almost a third of way through season, so....
Yes, I think that is probably part of it. Defensively they try not to give up the big play.

Offensively lets hope so. Might be a third of the way through but they still haven't had much time with the late signing and missed practices.
 

DJnVa

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Yes, I think that is probably part of it. Defensively they try not to give up the big play.
And the more plays the offense runs the better the chance the screw something up--fumble, interception, etc.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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Looking for more informed minds for guidance... off yesterday's disappointing performance, one positive I gleaned was the sense that Bentley was flashing, particularly toward the end of the game. After getting off to an uninspiring start of the season, seems like he's finding his way to being in the right place more often -- either because he's improving, or the coaching staff is using him better?
 

BaseballJones

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It felt like a pretty bad game by the Pats' D yesterday, yet at the end of the day, the results were pretty solid: 18 points, 299 yards, 15 first downs allowed, while getting 2 turnovers. It was their second lowest point total, and second lowest yardage total allowed this year.

So far, they've faced the following teams:

Mia: #22 in yards, #14 in points
Sea: #8 in yards, #1 in points
LV: #6 in yards, #7 in points
KC: #3 in yards, #9 in points
Den: #29 in yards, #29 in points

So that's one bad offense (Den), one mediocre offense (Mia) and three excellent offenses (Sea, LV, KC). And NE is allowing 22 points and 339 yards a game. If NE's opponents were its own NFL team, based on what the Pats have allowed, it would represent the #24 scoring offense and #27 yardage offense in the league. Adjusted for the caliber of opponents, and I'd say that the Patriots' defense has actually been pretty damned good so far this year. Especially because the offense has been pretty unhelpful. NE's offense has averaged just 22 points a game as well, and though they've gained a solid 374 yards a game, they've also committed 10 turnovers already. NE had 15 giveaways all last season and through 5 games has 10 already. A turnover represents roughly 50 yards of field position on average, which translates to about 2.5 expected points. So their offense is often putting the defense in bad spots, or in some cases, leading directly to points (like on KC's pick six).

Overall, the defense has been doing its job this year, especially given the caliber of opponents.
And the week after I say the defense has actually done well, they get absolutely steamrolled by San Francisco. Ugh. Now SF's offense isn't bad (#16 points, #12 yards), but they're not exactly a juggernaut. And yesterday they had 467 yards, 33 points, and 26 first downs. NE's offense being putrid didn't help, of course.

Here were SF's possessions yesterday:
SF 25 - TD
SF 12 - Int
SF 21 - FG
NE 38 - TD
SF 16 - TD
NE 45 - Int (hail mary at end of half)
SF 21 - TD
SF 31 - FG
SF 18 - punt

One JG interception (the second one was a hail mary that doesn't really count for anything), and they had one punt late in the game. Otherwise it was a parade of touchdowns and field goals.

When you rely on running the ball and defense, uh, the defense needs to do its job. They got hammered yesterday.
 

Bowhemian

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Linebacker position has been a huge issue this year. Bentley has shown nothing.
Unless they can sign a couple upgrades, their run defense is in for a world of hurt.
 

DJnVa

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Last 2 games for Wino:

Denver: 34.4% of snaps
SF: 19.7% of snaps (just 1 in second half)

This latest dip initially appeared to be the result of a penalty Winovich took on the final play of the Niners’ second possession. He hit quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo from behind during an interception runback, costing the Patriots 15 yards.

CBS cameras showed Belichick scolding Winovich once he reached the sideline. Winovich appeared to be pleading his case.

Winovich played just four defensive snaps from that point on and didn’t see the field in the second half until New England’s final defensive play.
Belichick, however, said Monday that Winovich was not benched because of his penalty.
 

BaseballJones

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Ok, so I don't know anything about html or whatever this code stuff is, but the point of this post is the tweet by Mark Daniels. Gilmore was otherworldly last year, but this year, apparently the stats actually show that he's still been damned good. Even though it doesn't feel like he has been.


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This year, I have Gilmore allowing caches on 50% of his targets. Last year was 50.5%.<br><br>Right now, he&#39;s averaging 1.8 catches allowed per game. I have him with a quarterback rating of 71.6 when targeted.</p>&mdash; Mark Daniels (@MarkDanielsPJ) <a href="View: https://twitter.com/MarkDanielsPJ/status/1321451731906158593?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
">October 28, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

Super Nomario

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Patriots defense now allowing 8.0 net yards per attempt against ... which is dead last in the NFL. They've actually shored up the run defense a lot from the early season, but anyone who saw "worst pass defense in the NFL" coming, raise your hands. I certainly didn't.
 

BigSoxFan

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Patriots defense now allowing 8.0 net yards per attempt against ... which is dead last in the NFL. They've actually shored up the run defense a lot from the early season, but anyone who saw "worst pass defense in the NFL" coming, raise your hands. I certainly didn't.
Not trading Gilmore continues to bother me. No idea what we’ll be able to get in the offseason.
 

54thMA

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Patriots defense now allowing 8.0 net yards per attempt against ... which is dead last in the NFL. They've actually shored up the run defense a lot from the early season, but anyone who saw "worst pass defense in the NFL" coming, raise your hands. I certainly didn't.
Stating the obvious, the secondary is the strength of the defense.

That said, when there is little to no pressure for most of the game on the opposing QB, not sure what even an elite secondary can do about that.

To me it's sort of mixed bag; there were times yesterday Watson had time and eventually found an open receiver, other times he threw the ball right away and a receiver was wide open, so it was a combination of little to no pressure and also poor coverage.

And I hate, hate, hate to go down this road, but two of Houston's TD's were direct results of missed holding calls.
 

BaseballJones

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When they did get pressure on Watson, he simply evaded it fairly effortlessly.

The team is a mess right now and BB has to see it as much as we do.
 

54thMA

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When they did get pressure on Watson, he simply evaded it fairly effortlessly.

The team is a mess right now and BB has to see it as much as we do.
One of the things I just shook my head at yesterday and laughed was at the end of the Red Zone coverage for the day, they showed a graphic of the AFC and NFC playoff picture.

To see the Patriots sitting at 4-6 and be listed in the "In the hunt" category just showed me how spoiled rotten we've been as fans for the past 20 years as in years past, they'd be sitting at 8-2, 9-1 and leading the AFC East.

It was a great, great run, something I'll probably never see again in my lifetime.

I'm just glad I appreciated it for what it was and enjoyed the Hell out of it.

Where this team goes from here is anyones guess.

They can either rebound over the next year or two and get back to elite status and go on another run or they can be the Lions/Browns/Jets and be mediocre for years.

Time will tell.