2020 Pats: Roster & Beyond (non-QB edition)

Saints Rest

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For those that are advocating more veteran turnover to save cap money, don't the Pats run the risk of losing the identity in the locker room with so much turnover? It's the veterans that set the tone for how the team carries itself. If they cut too deep into that, isn't there a risk (especially with Brady absent on the offensive side of the ball)?
Andrews is also a former team captain as I recall, and it was noted many times last season how he was around the team pretty much all season.
 

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RedOctober3829

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This is the one I don't understand. Theoretically, they have two FB's returning to the roster from injury. I can see where Develin might still be considered an injury risk, but Johnson impressed me in his limited time. I have to guess that Vitale's dead money would be nothing more than the $100k signing bonus if he doesn't make the roster.
Vitale is more than just a FB. He can play H-back and a little TE. Versatility moreso than Develin and Johnson can give.
 

Super Nomario

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One thing I like to do before the draft is look at the roster with a two-year view. It looks pretty ugly in a number of spots for 2021:
  • Front seven lost KVN, Collins, Shelton this year. It gets even worse next offseason, when Hightower, Guy, Butler, Simon, Wise, Copeland, Calhoun, and Rivers all hit FA. The only front seven players under contract for 2021 are Winovich, Bentley, Cowart, and Beau Allen
  • CB runs six deep in 2020, but JMac, JC Jackson, and Bethel all hit FA after the season
  • White and Burkhead are both FA after 2020, making receiving back a lowkey need
  • Thuney and Andrews are both in the last years of their deals. Wouldn't be surprising to see an extension for either / both
Add in the immediate needs at TE and WR, and Belichick has his work cut out for him.
 

BaseballJones

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One thing I like to do before the draft is look at the roster with a two-year view. It looks pretty ugly in a number of spots for 2021:
  • Front seven lost KVN, Collins, Shelton this year. It gets even worse next offseason, when Hightower, Guy, Butler, Simon, Wise, Copeland, Calhoun, and Rivers all hit FA. The only front seven players under contract for 2021 are Winovich, Bentley, Cowart, and Beau Allen
  • CB runs six deep in 2020, but JMac, JC Jackson, and Bethel all hit FA after the season
  • White and Burkhead are both FA after 2020, making receiving back a lowkey need
  • Thuney and Andrews are both in the last years of their deals. Wouldn't be surprising to see an extension for either / both
Add in the immediate needs at TE and WR, and Belichick has his work cut out for him.
I feel like he always has his work cut out for him, and that there's always roster issues. It's probably similar for most other teams. The good news is that they'll have tons of money available to replace these guys - either with themselves or other people.

Who knows what will happen but I'd expect Thuney and Andrews to be extended. I'd expect JC Jackson to get extended, maybe Bethel too because BB loves his special teamers and he's a great one. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hightower extended on a reasonable deal, but the rest probably could go and be replaced relatively easily. White and Burkhead...I don't even know if I see Burkhead making the team this year - he could be cut or traded and Harris could take his spot in the rotation. White is good and could be extended relatively inexpensively I think, but if they have to let him go, they've always found a way to replace that position.
 

BigSoxFan

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I could see White being Kevin Faulk 2.0 and hanging around into his early to mid 30s. But they certainly won’t overpay for him so will be interesting to see how that shakes out. Could see someone stealing him away.
 

Super Nomario

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Not overly concerned about that if it happens but worth noting that both guys effectively redshirted their first year.
That pass-catching back is a really complicated position in the Patriots offense. You have to know all the normal running back stuff, all the pass protection schemes, and all the routes, concepts, and nuances that wide receivers do. It's no wonder Vereen and White redshirted.

If they want to draft a White replacement, the time is now.
 

tims4wins

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That pass-catching back is a really complicated position in the Patriots offense. You have to know all the normal running back stuff, all the pass protection schemes, and all the routes, concepts, and nuances that wide receivers do. It's no wonder Vereen and White redshirted.

If they want to draft a White replacement, the time is now.
This is more for the TB to TB thread, but I get a chuckle out of reading that the Bucs can just grab a passing back in the middle rounds of the draft. Like it's that easy.
 

Super Nomario

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This is more for the TB to TB thread, but I get a chuckle out of reading that the Bucs can just grab a passing back in the middle rounds of the draft. Like it's that easy.
Pats trading Burkhead to TB makes some sense for both sides, I think. Though we would just be a White injury away from the return of Brandon Bolden, pass-catching RB.

Though to be fair, Bolden did have more receiving yards than N'Keal Harry last year. ::ducks::
 

tims4wins

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Pats trading Burkhead to TB makes some sense for both sides, I think. Though we would just be a White injury away from the return of Brandon Bolden, pass-catching RB.

Though to be fair, Bolden did have more receiving yards than N'Keal Harry last year. ::ducks::
Bolden is faster too :: ducks with you ::
 

BigSoxFan

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That pass-catching back is a really complicated position in the Patriots offense. You have to know all the normal running back stuff, all the pass protection schemes, and all the routes, concepts, and nuances that wide receivers do. It's no wonder Vereen and White redshirted.

If they want to draft a White replacement, the time is now.
Yeah, that was the point I was making. It can be replaced but it’s also overly optimistic to think you can just draft a 4th round guy in 2021 and be all set for that season. I hope they bring White back on a short deal.
 

BaseballJones

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Bolden is faster too :: ducks with you ::
I like Bolden. Solid receiver, and a decent runner when given the chance. Great at special teams. Solid player to have on the team - very useful guy. Not good enough, obviously, to be an every-down back in the league, but he's very capable as a backup.
 

EL Jeffe

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As we get closer to the draft, it's probably worthwhile taking a look at the state of the roster.

QB: STIDHAM, Hoyer
RB: MICHEL, White, Burkhead, Bolden, Harris
FB: Devlin, Vitale, Jak. Johnson
WR: EDELMAN, SANU, Harry, Meyers, Byrd, Gunner, Adeboyejo, Ross
TE: LaCOSSE, Izzo
OT: WYNN, CANNON, Cunningham, Cajuste
OG: THUNEY, MASON, Eluemunor, Froholdt, Toran
C: ANDREWS, ???

DT: GUY, BUTLER, Allen, Cowart, Thurman
DE: SIMON, WINOVICH, Calhoun, Wise, Copeland, Rivers, K. Davis
LB: HIGHTOWER, BENTLEY, (Simon, Copeland), Hall
CB: GILMORE, JACKSON, Jones, J. McCourty, Williams, Ross, Pipkins
S: D. McCOURTY, CHUNG, Phillips, Brooks, Davis, Melifonwu, Gant, Pickett

CORE ST: Slater, King, Bethel
P: BAILEY
K: ???

Some of these guys are clearly camp bodies/roster filler/practice squad players who were signed to futures contracts. Assessing the roster, there are some clear needs:

QB: Is Stidham The Guy? Everything starts here.
WR: This is a rough group, and they may need to move on from Sanu to get some desperately needed cap room (based on what happens with Thuney). They really need Harry to make a major leap (but he's not going to get magically faster or more explosive, so we'll see).
TE: This group is a cry for help. Hopefully LaCosse can at least stay healthy. You could see on the All-22 that Brady wasn't interested in targeting him, even when he had some separation. It's possible he sees a bump in production with a new QB, but help is badly needed here.
OT: A starting OT will be needed if they move on from Cannon for cap purposes. Maybe that's Cajuste, but a prospect is needed here since Cannon is near the end of the line either way.
IOL: They'll need a reliable starter if they move on from Thuney. I don't think Eluemunor or Froholdt have ever played OC before, so someone is going to have to be able to backup Andrews.
DT: Guy and Butler are both in the final years of their contracts and they'll have a healthy list of suitors. The Patriots will have plenty of cap room next year, but still. Something to think about.
EDGE: They could use a more dynamic guy here with KVN moving on. Not enough pass rush with this group.
LB: Depth was wiped out with Collins and Roberts leaving. Simon and Copeland have the versatility to help out in the off-the-ball LB role, but it isn't their strength.
K: A kicker would be nice.
 

Steve Dillard

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BB has always played on a pick in the future is worth less to a team than a pick today, so he traded current picks for greater value the following year. This seems like a year to double down on this even more, given that the time value of the pick is much smaller with a potential shortened, or non-existent season. So, will we see BB trading the current picks for a boatload next year? Trade a three and a seven for a 2 next year. A four and a five for a 2 in 2021? I suspect a number of GMs will still be tempted to get their guy this year, minimizing that their guy may not play this year.

Between trading some of our vets for value, I could see this as the year to essentially punt. How BB might do this would be fun to watch.
 

Oppo

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BB has always played on a pick in the future is worth less to a team than a pick today, so he traded current picks for greater value the following year. This seems like a year to double down on this even more, given that the time value of the pick is much smaller with a potential shortened, or non-existent season. So, will we see BB trading the current picks for a boatload next year? Trade a three and a seven for a 2 next year. A four and a five for a 2 in 2021? I suspect a number of GMs will still be tempted to get their guy this year, minimizing that their guy may not play this year.

Between trading some of our vets for value, I could see this as the year to essentially punt. How BB might do this would be fun to watch.
How he handles this draft could also provide some insight on how long BB plans to stick around.
 

Captaincoop

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BB has always played on a pick in the future is worth less to a team than a pick today, so he traded current picks for greater value the following year. This seems like a year to double down on this even more, given that the time value of the pick is much smaller with a potential shortened, or non-existent season. So, will we see BB trading the current picks for a boatload next year? Trade a three and a seven for a 2 next year. A four and a five for a 2 in 2021? I suspect a number of GMs will still be tempted to get their guy this year, minimizing that their guy may not play this year.

Between trading some of our vets for value, I could see this as the year to essentially punt. How BB might do this would be fun to watch.
That's true, but he's usually had a pretty solid roster and prioritized filling the few holes with veterans in anticipation of (yet another) deep playoff run.

Now he has a roster with lots of holes and a team with a deep playoff run probably at least a year away. Could change the calculus.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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BB has always played on a pick in the future is worth less to a team than a pick today, so he traded current picks for greater value the following year. This seems like a year to double down on this even more, given that the time value of the pick is much smaller with a potential shortened, or non-existent season. So, will we see BB trading the current picks for a boatload next year? Trade a three and a seven for a 2 next year. A four and a five for a 2 in 2021? I suspect a number of GMs will still be tempted to get their guy this year, minimizing that their guy may not play this year.

Between trading some of our vets for value, I could see this as the year to essentially punt. How BB might do this would be fun to watch.
It would certainly be an interesting strategy to see, but a potential 2021 draft after a shortened or non-existent college football season would require a lot of guesswork and could result in a class of rookies who are less ready than normal to play professional football having missed a year of experience. In a vacuum, I think I'd rather have more rookies this year getting a season "in the room" than more rookies later who hadn't played at all in almost 2 years.
 

Cellar-Door

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BB has always played on a pick in the future is worth less to a team than a pick today, so he traded current picks for greater value the following year. This seems like a year to double down on this even more, given that the time value of the pick is much smaller with a potential shortened, or non-existent season. So, will we see BB trading the current picks for a boatload next year? Trade a three and a seven for a 2 next year. A four and a five for a 2 in 2021? I suspect a number of GMs will still be tempted to get their guy this year, minimizing that their guy may not play this year.

Between trading some of our vets for value, I could see this as the year to essentially punt. How BB might do this would be fun to watch.
An interesting theory, but I think there are some arguments against that strategy.

1. This is actually generally considered a class that is both deep and good, so accumulating picks in the middle rounds might bring good value
2. If the NFL season is short or canceled it means college season is even shorter or canceled, and drafting kids who have just taken a full year off without the kind of training opportunities that pros have is going to be a disaster.
 

tims4wins

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An interesting theory, but I think there are some arguments against that strategy.

1. This is actually generally considered a class that is both deep and good, so accumulating picks in the middle rounds might bring good value
2. If the NFL season is short or canceled it means college season is even shorter or canceled, and drafting kids who have just taken a full year off without the kind of training opportunities that pros have is going to be a disaster.
This is a really interesting discussion. I am starting to talk myself into the idea of instead of punting the 2020 draft, punt the 2021 draft. Trade all major assets in 2021 for better picks in 2020 and just load up. Hell trade 23 + 2021 1st to move up if you believe in Tua.
 

RedOctober3829

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No one has been more wrong than Jason LaCanfora
What if Gronkowski plays only a year, yet the Bucs part ways with O.J. Howard, the 19th overall draft pick in 2017? Has Arians completely given up on him? No roster move has been made, but it's hard to imagine keeping him, Gronkowski and Cam Brate, who restructured his deal earlier this offseason. Not when those resources could be used elsewhere.

Though general manager Jason Licht said at the NFL combine, "We have plans for O.J. being in our offense this year," the Bucs have listened and will continue to listen to offers.

A source told ESPN that the Bucs were in discussions to trade Howard two months ago to the Washington Redskins in exchange for offensive tackle Trent Williams, but talks fell through. The Bucs have until May 5 to determine if they'll pick up the fifth-year option on Howard's contract for 2021.
https://www.espn.com/blog/tampa-bay-buccaneers/post/_/id/23634/tom-brady-lures-rob-gronkowski-showing-bucs-all-in-to-win-hometown-super-bowl
 

RedOctober3829

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So I was “spitballin’,” as I said in the mock draft, when I mentioned a trade with New England for Joe Thuney.

And then a source, who obviously read the mock, texted that it was given consideration by the Dolphins. No, not after they read it in the newspaper, which would be so amusing.

The idea of signing Thuney is something the Dolphins actually wanted to do before free agency. And when Thuney was franchised by the Patriots in March, the possibility of trading for him was also discussed.
In 2nd/3rd Miami has #39, #56, and #70.
https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/armando-salguero/article242192911.html
 

tims4wins

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If they decide to trade Thuney, the return for him should face more scrutiny than the Gronk deal. They don't have to trade him, so they don't have to cut bait
Flip side is he is on a 1 year contract for $15M. He'll be a UFA next year so the acquiring team could in theory franchise him again but that would cost them even more in 2021. So his value is limited. Personally I'd be happy with a late 2nd or early 3rd (in the 60s). That said my preferred outcome is a 4-5 year deal.
 

E5 Yaz

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Flip side is he is on a 1 year contract for $15M. He'll be a UFA next year so the acquiring team could in theory franchise him again but that would cost them even more in 2021. So his value is limited. Personally I'd be happy with a late 2nd or early 3rd (in the 60s). That said my preferred outcome is a 4-5 year deal.
I'm not fluent on this, but couldn't the Patriots franchise him again? Price goes up, though, right?
 

Cellar-Door

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I don't think the Patriots end up with Howard, but the appeal is obvious. Over the 3 years he's been in the league he is the leader in Y/Tgt even with last year's down year.
In that time, he has the 2 best seasons for Y/Tgt among TEs with 25+ targets.
If you stretch it to the whole decade he has 2 of the top 9 seasons (nobody else has 2 of the top 9, closest is Gronk who has 2 of 13)
For all his flaws, Howard can be a ridiculous weapon in terms of picking up yardage in big chunks.
 

RedOctober3829

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If they decide to trade Thuney, the return for him should face more scrutiny than the Gronk deal. They don't have to trade him, so they don't have to cut bait
You are correct. But I don't see how they can move forward with 2 big money deals at the guard spots. Any deal with Thuney is going to start with more guaranteed money than the 2 franchise years.
 

BigSoxFan

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You are correct. But I don't see how they can move forward with 2 big money deals at the guard spots. Any deal with Thuney is going to start with more guaranteed money than the 2 franchise years.
Agreed. I like Thuney but Mason got the contract. We generally haven’t had many issues filling interior OL. I’d be ecstatic for a 2. Would be fine with a 3rd.
 

E5 Yaz

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You are correct. But I don't see how they can move forward with 2 big money deals at the guard spots. Any deal with Thuney is going to start with more guaranteed money than the 2 franchise years.
Yep, that's why it seems inevitable
 

E5 Yaz

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Maybe they should trade Mason instead.
Mason might have plateau'd, he's had ankle issues and he has the big deal. You're not getting nearly as much for him as you would for a guy who ascended to All-Pro status
 

tims4wins

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Can't trade Mason yet. Dead cap # way too high from his signing bonus. It wouldn't even save them money.

Edit: per sportrac a pre-6/1 trade would save the Pats < $1M on the cap
 

BigSoxFan

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Mason might have plateau'd, he's had ankle issues and he has the big deal. You're not getting nearly as much for him as you would for a guy who ascended to All-Pro status
Yeah. Thuney is the guy to go and we’d just have to hope that 2019 was simply a down year for Mason. I may be a fanboy but I’ll be ok with however we settle this as long as Thuney isn’t traded for like a 4th or something.
 

EL Jeffe

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Trading Mason's ~ $9mil/year contract so they can pay Thuney ~ $15 mil/year (and still have a big hole at OG) doesn't make a ton of sense to me. They really don't have many options here, and I'm still a little surprised they franchised Thuney in the first place. I assume it was to keep him out of the AFC East (where all three teams had the money and need to go after him). I'm no Miguel, but I basically see four paths forward:

1. Extend Thuney starting at $15mil/year. There's no reason for Thuney to accept less than that. They can lower his cap hit some with an extension, enough to sign their draft class and have a smidgen of operating room for 2020 (assuming there's even a 2020 season). They wouldn't have room to add a free agent without making other moves. I'd assume they'd waive Sanu to free up ~ $6 million, but that leaves a really rough WR corps in even worse shape. Jules, Harry and Meyers would be your top 3 WRs (pending any draft capital expenditures).
2. Trade Thuney. That frees up ~ $14 million. They'd have the cap room to sign their draft class, and still add one or two of the decent free agents out there. They'd also have room to operate in 2020. You'd think maybe they'd get a 3rd round pick for Thuney, or trade him as part of a pick package or a rostered player. Trading Thuney is probably their best option.
3. Waive Thuney. This also frees up ~ $14 million with all the above benefits, but he'd be free to sign anywhere with no compensation back. I don't think he'd even qualify for a 2021 comp pick. I suppose this is the nuclear option if no other team is willing to trade for him, and NE decides they need the cap room badly enough. This would be a terrible miscalculation, as they could have never tagged him, let him walk, get the 2021 comp pick, and had some money to spend in 2020 free agency (not much, but some). LATE EDIT: According to Miguel, this is not an option. Waiving Thuney results in the money hitting their dead cap space.
4. Let Thuney play out the year on the tag. This would require them to tinker around the edges for cap space to sign their draft class and operate in 2020. It would probably have to start with waiving Sanu, and probably also moving on from Burkhead and/or Chung. They could then try an extension again in 2021 (with less leverage), but at least he'd be comp pick eligible if they let him walk after the season.

Based on the roster, it doesn't make much sense to me to try and play games with the Gilmore or Hightower contracts to push some of the pain into 2021. The 2020 roster isn't going to be particularly strong either way, so retooling this year for a cleaner 2021 seems like the more prudent path.

It's entirely possible I'm missing something, but following Miguel and the other Twitter cap gurus, I haven't run across other options. $26 million allocated to dead cap hits is just a tough deal for 2020.
 
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