2020 NFL: Gambling Thread

Old Fart Tree

the maven of meat
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 10, 2001
8,909
The Yay Area
Seems a little silly to think about recreational gambling in a pandemic but here we are.

I like the big dogs on opening weekend. If I was laying money I’d find someone to tease with Miami +12 (from +6).
 

SMU_Sox

loves his fluffykins
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
6,642
Dallas
Seems a little silly to think about recreational gambling in a pandemic but here we are.

I like the big dogs on opening weekend. If I was laying money I’d find someone to tease with Miami +12 (from +6).
TB+4 —> TB+10? Or DAL -2.5 —> DAL +4.5 work for me. Dallas is playing at LAR and TB is playing at NO.
 

Old Fart Tree

the maven of meat
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 10, 2001
8,909
The Yay Area
Think I like the TB+4 tease better. I'm not trying to make a political statement but it's the 'booo belichick hooray brady' tease.
 

SMU_Sox

loves his fluffykins
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
6,642
Dallas
I like the Cowboys in the matchup against the Rams because the Rams are going to lose in the trenches on both sides of the ball. They have gone from a heavy outside zone team to now with Akers and Henderson a gap running team. Their OL isn’t really built for gap and they have all seen better days. The only matchup in the Rams favor is their receivers and TEs against the Cowboys secondary.

Coming back to the Rams for a second. They had a choice between Dobbins and Akers. I like both RBs but to me Dobbins was the best RB in the class and it was a good class of RBs. While Dobbins is scheme diverse he might be something like a 93/100 in a gap system 93/100 in inside zone and a cheat code 99/100 in outside zone concepts which used to be the Rams bread and butter. Akers and Henderson meanwhile are almost exclusive gap concept runners. They need to know what hole they are being led to. When the Rams took Akers over Dobbins they doubled down on going with more gap. I just don’t think they have a good enough OL. Caveat here that most teams run all the concepts to some degree so it’s not like the Rams will only run gap. I think the Rams are going to be one of the surprise bad teams this year and McVay is not to blame. The team is getting thin on talent and they need to stop trading picks and using the draft to replenish their aging roster.

As for TB... TB is a loaded team on both sides of the ball minus their secondary. With Brady at the helm instead of Winston I see a deep playoff run in their future. I don’t know if they beat NO on the road in his first real action but I’ll take them not losing by more than 9...
 
Last edited:

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
13,218
Waltham, MA
Fascinating thanks for sharing.
UPDATE: Not sure if this helps anyone. Personally, I stood to lose a shit ton of money from this as I have over $25,000 in futures that have accumulated a great deal of equity. So apparently, you can request to have your 5D balance and pending future wagers transferred to a new BetAnySports.eu account, which they pretend is a separate company under separate ownership. Don't create an account if you don't have one, as they will do it for you.
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
46,909
How do the unders this week compare to historical first week o/u’s? Is it possible to find that data?
 

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
13,218
Waltham, MA
How do the unders this week compare to historical first week o/u’s? Is it possible to find that data?
It is possible, but answering your question would require some number crunching. It's a good question to ask before blindly betting though because I would assume that the lack of preseason is already baked into the numbers to some extent.
 
Last edited:

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
13,218
Waltham, MA
I only went back a few years. Pretty damn consistent average closing line for Week 1. By the way, despite the observed sloppiness, last night's game ended up going over Pinnacle's closing line (by 1/2 a point), so YMMV.

2020 45.6
2019 45.9
2018 44.7
2017 45.6
2016 45.1
 
Last edited:

bsj

Renegade Crazed Genius
SoSH Member
Dec 6, 2003
19,243
Central NJ SoSH Chapter
I know its likely money lost, but I am really tempted to throw 50 bucks on the Pats to win the SB. This team is not nearly as bad as being projected IMO, and seems silly for a Belichick coached Patriots team to be at +2200.
 

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
13,218
Waltham, MA
I only went back a few years. Pretty damn consistent average closing line for Week 1. By the way, despite the observed sloppiness, last night's game ended up going over Pinnacle's closing line (by 1/2 a point), so YMMV.

2020 45.6
2019 45.9
2018 44.7
2017 45.6
2016 45.1
Just to put a bow on this... Obviously, it depends on when and where you placed a bet, but based on Pinnacle closing lines, there were 9 Overs and 7 Unders in Week 1.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 2, 2006
6,067
NJ
Fan Duel betting has some of my favorite bets to make - for example, last night I just took the Steelers and also Titans to win by a margin of 1 -13 points, which I believe both were +140 odds. Obviously there is some risk here in potential blowout games, and upsets, BUT I feel like most of the time you can accurately guess who will actually win a game. Problem is on a straight spread, the odds makers are SO good that you lose on the .5 hook. This IMO so far, makes it much easier to win. I used these bets almost exclusively for Week 1, and had 2 losses (Eagles, and Colts).
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
5,961
Just to put a bow on this... Obviously, it depends on when and where you placed a bet, but based on Pinnacle closing lines, there were 9 Overs and 7 Unders in Week 1.
yuck. Thanks for following up on it. Any interesting lines for week 2?
 

Old Fart Tree

the maven of meat
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 10, 2001
8,909
The Yay Area
I teased the dolphins up to +12: hooray! But unfortunately the two teases were with the over, which needed that PI in the end zone, and with the Bucs, which would have pushed if they had just kicked the extra point or won if they converted the two point conversion. Neither happened. Ugh.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
33,085
Love James White O 3.5 receptions (-105) against the Seahawks. Cam was 11 for 11 throwing to McCaffrey in 2018 against the Seahawks.
Cancel that bet. White's father was killed in a car crash today, and mom is in critical condition. He's inactive tonight. Such a tragedy.
 

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
13,218
Waltham, MA
Not with my bookie, it wouldn't be. LOL. If the game were cancelled, maybe.
That’s not true. From MyBookie’s football rules:
“Player Props are official only if the Player is on the roster and has played at least one play on offense, defense, or special teams.”

if they haven’t voided bets in the past for you then they made an error.

Anyways, they’re a shit book. Don’t play there if you like to withdraw winnings.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
41,553
Yahoo sent me a story today about a gambler that wagered $35,000 to win $1,050 on Atlanta ML when they were up 39-24. I deleted the link, but....damn.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
33,085
That’s not true. From MyBookie’s football rules:
“Player Props are official only if the Player is on the roster and has played at least one play on offense, defense, or special teams.”

if they haven’t voided bets in the past for you then they made an error.

Anyways, they’re a shit book. Don’t play there if you like to withdraw winnings.
Let's just say it's not a public bookie. They have a website, but they aren't bound by any "rules." If he wants to change a Pats line from -2 to -7, he can do that if that's what the action is coming in on his end. That said, he's been our bookie for many, many years,, and he pays out, but the lines and the guidelines he uses are probably not for everyone. And when you're married and have joint bank accounts, I prefer to use the cash option when paying and collecting.....
 

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
13,218
Waltham, MA
Let's just say it's not a public bookie. They have a website, but they aren't bound by any "rules." If he wants to change a Pats line from -2 to -7, he can do that if that's what the action is coming in on his end. That said, he's been our bookie for many, many years,, and he pays out, but the lines and the guidelines he uses are probably not for everyone. And when you're married and have joint bank accounts, I prefer to use the cash option when paying and collecting.....
Oh. "my bookie", not "MyBookie". LOL, my bad. I'm so used to people talking about MyBookie, that's what my brain registered even though it clearly wasn't what you wrote.