2020 NBA Draft

NoXInNixon

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Oh wow, if 14, 26 & 30 can possibly get us up to #7, and either of those guys (but OO particularly) count me in. Givony knows his stuff, so I suppose it’s within reason. Pelton had a draft pick value chart a while ago, under which just the 14 and 26 alone gets you there, but that doesn’t really pass the smell test to me. I get the sense that these slot values are more individualized among the teams than say, NFL picks.

FWIW, here’s Pelton’s chart:http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2
#7 Detroit, #8 New York and #9 Washington should all value three first round picks more than Boston does. If the player Danny wants is still available, one of those teams should bite.
 

tbb345

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#7 Detroit, #8 New York and #9 Washington should all value three first round picks more than Boston does. If the player Danny wants is still available, one of those teams should bite.
Who do you think Danny would be looking to get?
Okongwu seems to be very Horford-esque (needs to improve the jumper though),
Devin Vassell’s floor looks like a quality 3 and D wing and I like everything I read about Haliburton.

Is there anyone I’m missing?
 

PedroKsBambino

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Oh wow, if 14, 26 & 30 can possibly get us up to #7, and either of those guys (but OO particularly) count me in. Givony knows his stuff, so I suppose it’s within reason. Pelton had a draft pick value chart a while ago, under which just the 14 and 26 alone gets you there, but that doesn’t really pass the smell test to me. I get the sense that these slot values are more individualized among the teams than say, NFL picks.

FWIW, here’s Pelton’s chart:http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2
In a draft generally pereceived as flat I'm guessing 14, 26, and 43 get you up to the 7-9 range, but I think it's very team specific---if you really like a guy you view that as a dime and two nickels for a quarter. But if you're somewhat indifferent to the tier of players that's a nice way to accumulate assets/shots on goal.

I hope Danny is thinking about those kinds of deals, but only to get a specific player he really likes. Trading up just to consolidate assets isn't worth it, but doing so to target someone youreally believe it makes a ton of sense given their overall roster profile
 

DannyDarwinism

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In a draft generally pereceived as flat I'm guessing 14, 26, and 43 get you up to the 7-9 range, but I think it's very team specific---if you really like a guy you view that as a dime and two nickels for a quarter. But if you're somewhat indifferent to the tier of players that's a nice way to accumulate assets/shots on goal.

I hope Danny is thinking about those kinds of deals, but only to get a specific player he really likes. Trading up just to consolidate assets isn't worth it, but doing so to target someone youreally believe it makes a ton of sense given their overall roster profile
Yeah, I agree it's contingent on individual player evaluations, that's why I'm skeptical of claims that specific teams should be looking to trade back to accumulate assets. The above-mentioned Pistons and Knicks, for example, both are in pretty desperate need for lead guards, so depending on how they rate Haliburton and Hayes, say, they may be happy to stand pat. More generally, those teams need high-end talent. If they happen to think there's a bit of a drop off after the 10th pick (as I do, as per tankathon's mock: http://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft ) then they're going to be asking for more to move back. I know this draft has a reputation for being flat, but I do get the sense that a lot of people who know this stuff see a drop off after 10 (usually Vassell or

For the Celtics, I think Desmond Bane and Xavier Tillman are high floor, NBA-ready rotation players who would provide value on their rookie scale contracts, and could be had at 26 & 30. If Danny's evaluations says there are guys like that potentially available at those picks, I expect he'll go for at least one of those types, given the importance of guys like that for a team that'll be facing cap decisions.

For anyone interested in this player evaluations, Sam Vecenie at the Athletic is running a series where he interviews, anonymously, in-conference opposing coaches for various prospects, and it’s really interesting to hear what they have to say. Skepticism abounds for Okoro (upside-wise), Edwards and Maxey, while SEC coaches are big on Kira Lewis’s potential. Anyway, good stuff for NBA draft content, which took hit this year when Cole Zwicker of the Stepien went and got himself hired by an NBA team.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Yeah, I agree it's contingent on individual player evaluations, that's why I'm skeptical of claims that specific teams should be looking to trade back to accumulate assets. The above-mentioned Pistons and Knicks, for example, both are in pretty desperate need for lead guards, so depending on how they rate Haliburton and Hayes, say, they may be happy to stand pat. More generally, those teams need high-end talent. If they happen to think there's a bit of a drop off after the 10th pick (as I do, as per tankathon's mock: http://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft ) then they're going to be asking for more to move back. I know this draft has a reputation for being flat, but I do get the sense that a lot of people who know this stuff see a drop off after 10 (usually Vassell or

For the Celtics, I think Desmond Bane and Xavier Tillman are high floor, NBA-ready rotation players who would provide value on their rookie scale contracts, and could be had at 26 & 30. If Danny's evaluations says there are guys like that potentially available at those picks, I expect he'll go for at least one of those types, given the importance of guys like that for a team that'll be facing cap decisions.

For anyone interested in this player evaluations, Sam Vecenie at the Athletic is running a series where he interviews, anonymously, in-conference opposing coaches for various prospects, and it’s really interesting to hear what they have to say. Skepticism abounds for Okoro (upside-wise), Edwards and Maxey, while SEC coaches are big on Kira Lewis’s potential. Anyway, good stuff for NBA draft content, which took hit this year when Cole Zwicker of the Stepien went and got himself hired by an NBA team.
Yes, I think it's just hard to know the invidivual evaluations.

Detroit needs stars. But unless you truly believe (say) Hayes is a likely star you'd prefer more shots at it, I think. That's why you can't just say "stars are higher picks" becuase while that is true on average, across a big sample, there's tons of exceptions. And how you assess that is all about the individual player assessments
 

bakahump

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Trading up to consolidate is a good idea if only to consolidate 2 dimes and a nickel (or even 3 dimes) into a quarter if only to conserve Roster spots. At some point you need to have the spots to keep the players you picked (TL, GW, Langford...and if your really optimistic Edwards and Waters) and (hopefully) see them improve into 50 cent pieces.

So unless Danny can get players better (or potentially better) then the 5 guys above you need to conserve some roster spots.

So where would Langford, GW, TL et al go in this draft??
 

nighthob

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No offense, but Timelord’s Boston career is approximately 24 months from being over unless his game grows by leaps and bounds. Something that’s highly unlikely. He looks like he could be useful in a roleplayer fashion, but if someone offers him Marcus money, Boston’s likely to move to the next available roleplaying big.

Much like there’s no such thing as too many CBs in the NFL, there’s no such thing as too many wings in the NBA. As for Grant Williams, he’s potentially a useful rotation player, but Boston could always use more of those. While I’ve no doubt that Boston would happily move one of #26 or #30 for a future pick, giving up the draft to move up a couple of slots in a flat pool is unlikely. Unless, as I noted in an earlier post, they really love Devin Vassell or Patrick Willams and are convinced that neither will float.
 

bakahump

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I get that @nighthob. And Yea if there are 3 better players then 3 players we currently have or (or project to be/have) then yea by all means stand pat and pick 3 great replacements.
My point which you didnt respond to is "in a flat draft" how much better are the players at 14,26 and 30 going to be then whats currently here?
I am no draft expert and the answer might be "alot" but it also might be...."well they wont be...they actually might be worse."

When you have a core like Brown and Tatum your math also starts to change from "Lets find more new good guys by chancing the draft!" to "Lets do no harm and surround these guys with role players we can "trust"".

TL has yet to show he is a starter or "heavy rotation" guy in the NBA. But he also has shown that he can at least get on the floor. Something none of the draftees have done. Also as you point out 24 months is a LOOOOONG time in the NBA. Think back to Jaylen and Tatum. None of us would have expected thier last 24 months of growth. TL has been hampered by inuries which has stunted his development. Thats both "good and bad" and is certainly part of the calculus when deciding "do we pick new guys and move on". But he may have 24 months of really decent development.

Thats all I am saying.....we have 5 guys who are young need mins and need a roster spot to develop and see what we have. If we use all three picks 2-3 of those guys are gone. Which ones should go? And we need to be confident that the replacements give us more then the guys leaving.
 

nighthob

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The point is to retain assets rather than giving them away. You need a continuous stream of lower priced talent at the back end of the rotation in order to run a successful organization in the luxury tax era. You might not see the need to replace Green, but I guarantee you that Boston’s looking at guys with precisely that end in mind. Plus there are some flawed high upside guys likely to slip through the cracks this year when teams will be prioritizing high floor players.
 

NoXInNixon

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Who do you think Danny would be looking to get?
Okongwu seems to be very Horford-esque (needs to improve the jumper though),
Devin Vassell’s floor looks like a quality 3 and D wing and I like everything I read about Haliburton.

Is there anyone I’m missing?
Depends who falls to 7,8, or 9. I think they should prioritize a shooting guard, given the concerns about Kemba's knee. I'm with you on Haliburton and Vassell. If either one is available, Danny should package all three 1sts for either of them. I don't think Toppin will fall past #5, but if he does, he's someone else I'd trade the picks for.

But in the end, I trust Danny and his scouting to figure out who's the steal of the draft. Whoever he picks if he trades up will be OK by me.
 

128

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Depends who falls to 7,8, or 9. I think they should prioritize a shooting guard, given the concerns about Kemba's knee.
I don't necessarily disagree, but wouldn't the C's be looking for a point guard in this case?
 

benhogan

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Depends who falls to 7,8, or 9. I think they should prioritize a shooting guard, given the concerns about Kemba's knee. I'm with you on Haliburton and Vassell. If either one is available, Danny should package all three 1sts for either of them. I don't think Toppin will fall past #5, but if he does, he's someone else I'd trade the picks for.

But in the end, I trust Danny and his scouting to figure out who's the steal of the draft. Whoever he picks if he trades up will be OK by me.
I'm in the keep 3 bites from the Apple camp. The top 10 mocked really don't impress me.

Jalen Smith and Precious are 2yrs younger then Toppin.

Why unload an additional 2 picks when you can potentially select either of those players that are better then Toppin was at 20?
AND better defensively then Toppin is now?
 

nighthob

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I mean Patrick Williams is a complete wildcard in a Jaylen sort of way and he could conceivably slip to them because he's so raw. It would be hilarious to see the Robert Williams scenario repeat itself with Patrick, where Danny desperately tries to trade up to get him only to have him slip to them anyway.
 

NomarsFool

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There's a lot of uncertainty in the draft. A player picked at 14 might have a 35% chance of being a useful player, while a player picked at 26 might have a 15% chance of being a useful player. So, trading 0.35, 0.15, and 0.15 makes sense if you are really sure the player you are trading for has a >65% chance of being a useful player (just to make up some numbers).

In this draft, the delta between 10 and 26 is probably closer. So, it might be 25% and 20%. That makes trading up even more challenging because I don't think you can be 65% certain that player at #10 is going to be useful.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Watching some MSU (mainly for Xavier Tillman, who I'm still big on for the Cs at 26 or 30), and man do I loooove Cassius Winston. I know I'm not alone here and he's had some well-earned love in this thread, but offensively, the kid is such a great floor general- so smart, so savvy, so clutch, always in control. Coaches dream. Great shooter too- pull ups, movement, coming off ball- really diverse shot profile. What an incredible college career, such a bummer we didn't get to see him in the tourney this year. He's a decent enough team defender too, but he just doesn't have the lateral quickness to deny penetration, even at the college level, nevermind the NBA. But for teams stacked with good perimeter defenders that can help neutralize a leaky point of attack, he's definitely worth a serious look.
 

chilidawg

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SB Nation has a pretty well reasoned Mock out, C's get Anthony at 14, Tillman and TreJones at 26 and 30. Pass up Bey, Nesmith, Green and Lewis at 14. I'm not convinced on Anthony, but Bey or Nesmith seem like they'd fit well. Tillman and Jones seem like high floor guys who might contribute sooner than many rookies.
 

Jimbodandy

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SB Nation has a pretty well reasoned Mock out, C's get Anthony at 14, Tillman and TreJones at 26 and 30. Pass up Bey, Nesmith, Green and Lewis at 14. I'm not convinced on Anthony, but Bey or Nesmith seem like they'd fit well. Tillman and Jones seem like high floor guys who might contribute sooner than many rookies.
I think Tre Jones might be the third best player at Duke, and they might all be second rounders.
 

nighthob

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SB Nation has a pretty well reasoned Mock out, C's get Anthony at 14, Tillman and TreJones at 26 and 30. Pass up Bey, Nesmith, Green and Lewis at 14. I'm not convinced on Anthony, but Bey or Nesmith seem like they'd fit well. Tillman and Jones seem like high floor guys who might contribute sooner than many rookies.
Well reasoned? Do they think that 5th string PG is a real position of need for the Celtics?
 

DannyDarwinism

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I'm not sure how long this has been available, but https://winsadded.com/ now has a spreadsheet, sorted by highest PIPM*** values for the past 15 seasons:

View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cHlwjsSHjnzTHx-ztg5qafhjnidO-h4CvJ_CJvsgeZM/edit#gid=0


Zion and AD's freshmen campaigns are 1 and 2, respectively. Brandon Clarke (who was 22- age would be a useful column here) last year was #3. There looks to be only about 6-8 guys in the top 100 who did not get drafted at all (and half of those were from pretty obscure programs, including two guys in the top 50 from the 2011 New Orleans Privateers squad), and a lot of the guys on the list went on to good-to-great NBA careers.

I know the pure analytics types, like Bowiac, used to look at college BPM (and age) when evaluating prospects, but look at the list of highest college BPM (only available from 2010) seasons:
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2006&year_max=2020&class_is_fr=Y&class_is_so=Y&class_is_jr=Y&class_is_sr=Y&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_c=Y&games_type=A&c1stat=mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=700&order_by=bpm

There looks to be about 22 guys who went undrafted in the smaller pool size of BPM seasons since 2010. PIPM incorporates box score data, so obviously there'll be substantial overlap with BPM, but PIPM's on/off data certainly seems to be capturing something meaningful about overall impact in college and projection going forward. Some of that is undoubtedly defense;Trey Burke, Kelly Olynyk, Kemba and Cam Johnson stand out as guys with very strong BPMs whose PIPMs were probably hit by their defense.

For comparison, here's the list of college PER seasons, also since 2010:
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2006&year_max=2020&class_is_fr=Y&class_is_so=Y&class_is_jr=Y&class_is_sr=Y&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_c=Y&games_type=A&c1stat=mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=700&order_by=per

Zion and Brandon Clarke sit at 1 & 2, but John Brown and Jameel Warney are 3 & 4, with many, many more "who the hell are they" guys in the top 100

Anyway, figured I'd share this neat tool for the draft thread after seeing how strongly an elite college PIPM correlates with NBA success.

Now, about my priors... Xavier Tilman just put up the 13th highest PIPM on record (sandwiched between Roy Hibbert and Joakim Noah), and last year he had the 23rd highest ever (behind Oladipo and ahead of Andrew Bogut). I've been splooging about him in this thread, mostly based off of eye-test stuff, like I splooged about Brandon Clarke in the draft thread last year, and seeing these numbers now, it's hard not to see parallels. Older, undersized garbagemen bigs with questions about their jump shot, but do all the little things right. Clarke undoubtedly has the advantage in athleticism, but Tillman is stronger and has about four inches of wingspan. Clarke's a better finisher (though Tillman is solid) and better defending the perimeter, while Tillman's passing is superior. Draymond’s an obvious comp as well, and not just because Izzo made it repeatedly- their rates are pretty similar across the board, with Dray being the better passer and X proving more rim protection. Closer still- virtually identical, in fact, is Horford. Only significant difference is that Al got to the line more. Of course, if Tillman was Al’s size, I wouldn’t be writing about him as a potential target with our #27 pick.

It's just strange to me that Tillman is still projected as a second rounder when he played so well for a contending program and compares pretty closely with a guy who's looking like one of the steals of last year's draft.

Anyway, this is a very long way of saying, again, that I want the Celtics to draft Xavier Tillman. In addition to being a really smart and productive player, he's also reported to be a really high character guy- mature beyond his years from all accounts I've seen. He also has a lot in common with Grant, and so there's certainly redundancy there. He's not nearly the scorer Grant was in college, and is less likely to be able to extend his range (69.5 FT% for his MSU career, 21/77 from 3 in 3 years), but he probably has 4 or 5 inches of standing reach on Granite, so stands a better chance at bothering some of the bigger guys. Great screener, like Grant- he was Cassius Winston's best on-court friend the way he freed him up, and a solid PnR roll man. Redundancy isn't necessarily a bad thing for the Celtics if it's a cheap, smart, low-usage guy who can contribute on both ends from day one and projects to be starter-type material if he develops range.




***PIPM, which combines a box-score prior, luck-adjusted on/off data, and luck-adjusted net rating, certainly has its flaws and outliers, like the rest of the all-in-one metrics, but it's popular with b-ball analytics types, its results generally confirm my priors better than most anything else I've seen
 
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chilidawg

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Vecenie with a new Mock out today. He has the C's getting Pokusevski (the Skinny Ski) at 14, with Bey, Williams, Nesmith and Vassell already off the board. This seems to me to scream move up Danny and grab one of those wings who can shoot.

Bolmaro (stash) and Woodard are the mocks at 26 and 30, both of which make good sense at that point. DD's guy Tillman falls to 35. 47 gets us Sam Merrill, potential bench scorer. Carey and Reed are available at 47 too.

 

nighthob

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Vecenie with a new Mock out today. He has the C's getting Pokusevski (the Skinny Ski) at 14, with Bey, Williams, Nesmith and Vassell already off the board. This seems to me to scream move up Danny and grab one of those wings who can shoot.

Bolmaro (stash) and Woodard are the mocks at 26 and 30, both of which make good sense at that point. DD's guy Tillman falls to 35. 47 gets us Sam Merrill, potential bench scorer. Carey and Reed are available at 47 too.
I feel like writers of mocks spend way too much time trying to get Cs and backup PGs to Boston when, recently, they just don’t set high value to the spots. Marcus is Boston's backup PG, and he's likely to remain that for the foreseeable future. It's why they felt comfortable gambling on a 6' tall SG in last year's draft.
 
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Jimbodandy

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I feel like writers of mocks spend way too much time trying to get Cs and backup PGs to Boston when, recently, they just set high value to the spots. Marcus is Boston's backup PG, and he's likely to remain that for the foreseeable future. It's why they felt comfortable gambling on a 6' tall SG in last year's draft.
It's laziness. The draft is heavy in PGs (as you know), and our center is 6'9". And we have wings.
 

nighthob

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I mean if you’re mocking them a C, at least make it an athletic 6’9” 230lb one like Achiuwa rather than the 7’ 185lb one.
 

benhogan

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I mean if you’re mocking them a C, at least make it an athletic 6’9” 230lb one like Achiuwa rather than the 7’ 185lb one.
that's a pretty awful mock, someone would be nuts to make Elijah Hughes a first-round pick...

then again, NY Knicks
 

nighthob

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that's a pretty awful mock, someone would be nuts to make Elijah Hughes a first-round pick...

then again, NY Knicks
Yeah, it’s a pretty awful mock. It’s almost like Vecenie decided that Boston needed multiple draft & stashes and Cs and killed two birds with one stone in that pick at #14.
 

nighthob

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OK, having now watched more Patrick Williams video than any sane person should, he's a mixed bag.

The Good

  • He's got excellent size/length. He's been measured at 6'8" with a 6'11" wingspan. He's already bigger than JayTay in terms of mass. He's big enough in the shoulders and wrists that you can see him adding another 20-25lbs without loss of athleticism. Also pretty springy and runs the floor end to end pretty well. The prototypical power 3 that teams like to run out as the third wing in the pace & space era.
  • He has some great instincts, defensively. When he's locked in he's a destroyer of passing lanes, and would fit right in with the Jay Crew in that regard. He doesn't quit on plays and even when you beat him shows some effectiveness at blocking shots from behind. Also anticipates well acting as a helpside shot blocker. The sort of player that Marcus would take as his kid brother.
  • His face up game is raw, but it has real promise. His handle is good in transition and he even has a decent crossover for a 6'8" guy. There's a lot to work with there.
  • He has a real nose for the ball. He rebounds well. He's a pretty good offensive rebounder too, shows a real knack for following his own shot and converting misses. He reminds me of Antoine Walker in that regard, only without the 'Toine Chuck & Duck move*.
  • The shot shows some promise, his catch & shoot treys tend to go in. Playing with the Jay Crew gives them some latitude here, even if he never gets beyond catch & shoot guy, Tatum's gravity will make him look better.

The Bad

  • Oh my god the footwork. I have seen sea sponges with better defensive footwork. It's so bad I can't even figure out how laterally quick he is as his feet are pretty much always out of position and he always looks like he's racing to get back in the play. (The typical example of this is his feet out of line, his man starting to take him off the dribble, he attempts to properly slide defensively, but falling off balance due to his footwork, and trying to run to stay in front of his man.)
  • The shot. The form looks okay, save that he's slightly out of synch and so there's a pause at the top of the motion as he has to wait an extra tick for maximum elevation before releasing. Needless to say it's a slow release. Definitely not offensive alpha material. Overall the shooting motion reminds me a little of Marcus that first season after Jay Larranaga started working with him. Slow, mechanical, a little stiff. Maybe he's been working with a shooting coach and learning a proper shooting form he hasn't mastered? I don't know. There are problems there, but enough potential that I think Larranaga can do something good with him.
  • He looks like Frankenstein's monster offensively. Even when looking at his face up game there's something stiff and mechanical in his moves when he's working defenders in the halfcourt. The only time his offense looks natural is in transition.
  • He has tunnel vision. You see this at times everywhere, like in his offensive rebounding where he charges the ball on the shot rather than getting back to defend in transition. Defensively he gets so locked in on his man that he ignores what's going on around him. Or his focus on the ball leading him to overplay for the steal and taking himself out of a defensive possession.

Overall he reminds me a little of young Jaylen. Very mechanical as he's learning all these skills and hasn't mastered them yet. Probably ahead of Jaylen at the same stage, but with some real warts/concerns. I don't think there's a lot of bust potential there as a late lotto pick, as he's got a long future as a 3&D F in the NBA. But, seriously, someone needs to work with him on that footwork.


*For those of you too young to remember, the 6'8" Walker wasn't the most athletic guy in the world, and couldn't really dunk over guys or even overpower them. So he had this move on the blocks where he'd throw a looping shot over his defender, duck under them, and attempt to score on the offensive rebound. It's pretty much how he managed to be the last 20/10 guy in team history.
 

benhogan

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Vecenie with a new Mock out today. He has the C's getting Pokusevski (the Skinny Ski) at 14, with Bey, Williams, Nesmith and Vassell already off the board. This seems to me to scream move up Danny and grab one of those wings who can shoot.

Bolmaro (stash) and Woodard are the mocks at 26 and 30, both of which make good sense at that point. DD's guy Tillman falls to 35. 47 gets us Sam Merrill, potential bench scorer. Carey and Reed are available at 47 too.

If this mock was where the talent lay I'd want Danny to take: Precious, Bolmaro, Terry (or Ramsey) and
Carey (2nd round)
 

the moops

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I wonder why they are waiting so long? Just hold off for a week after the Championship ends and let teams start rebuilding for a post-New Years start to the 2021 season.
I would think because of the strange nature of the year, they want to give teams more time to get guys in for workouts and stuff. Logistically it is going to take a lot longer to get guys across the country and if there are any sort of quaranting or testing procedures in play for the workouts and such
 

Pesky Pole

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Can we start a rumor that they're going to let players who opt out of the college season or have their seasons postponed enter the 2020 NBA draft? With 3 first round picks, this baseless rumor needs legs.
 

NomarsFool

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That would be extremely exciting. What's the point of waiting a year if they can't play anywhere?
 

benhogan

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Can we start a rumor that they're going to let players who opt out of the college season or have their seasons postponed enter the 2020 NBA draft? With 3 first round picks, this baseless rumor needs legs.
OMG that would be huge...maybe we can get a player empowerment movement going on this...

we need Nighthob to weigh in on this pipe dream and what this would mean
 

nighthob

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It won’t happen, but it would mean that you’d be looking at the guys from the top of this year’s class at #14. Honestly there are 10-12 guys in the ‘21 pool as good as/better than Ant Edwards, James Wiseman, and LaMelo Ball. Of course SRN would have an orgasm if the Warriors got to choose whichever of Cade Cunnngham, Jalen Green, or Jonathan Kuminga that the T’wolves didn’t.

But from Boston’s standpoint all those ‘21 wings make it likely that Onyeka Okongwu would be available at #14. Or high end 3&D guys like Devin Vassell or wildcards like Patrick Williams. The guy I’d really want from ‘21 is Jalen Johnson as the long term Hayward replacement (big, long, point forward with a good outside shot).
 

DannyDarwinism

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It won’t happen, but it would mean that you’d be looking at the guys from the top of this year’s class at #14. Honestly there are 10-12 guys in the ‘21 pool as good as/better than Ant Edwards, James Wiseman, and LaMelo Ball. Of course SRN would have an orgasm if the Warriors got to choose whichever of Cade Cunnngham, Jalen Green, or Jonathan Kuminga that the T’wolves didn’t.

But from Boston’s standpoint all those ‘21 wings make it likely that Onyeka Okongwu would be available at #14. Or high end 3&D guys like Devin Vassell or wildcards like Patrick Williams. The guy I’d really want from ‘21 is Jalen Johnson as the long term Hayward replacement (big, long, point forward withes a good outside shot).
Okungwu’s the guy I immediately thought of as well when I saw the hypothetical. He’d be such an exciting defensive piece for this squad, and his rim running would facilitate Tatum’s evolution into a 5-6 APG alpha. I’d be doing backflips if the Cs could figure out a way to land him. Unless, of course, it meant sacrificing future Celtics champions Desmond Bane and Xavier Tillman.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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The Ringer’s KOC has his first post-lottery mock out, here’s what he has the Celtics doing:

14:
14. Boston Celtics: Aleksej Pokusevski (Big, Olympiacos B)
The Celtics don’t really needanything. They’re deep at wing, have low-cost centers, and have plenty of lead ball handlers. With two more first-rounders later, why not take a boom-or-bust player here? Pokusevski is the draft’s biggest gamble: He’s a 7-foot beanpole who can shoot and handle like a guard. He’ll become the second-youngest player drafted since high schoolers were barred from entering. Pokusevski might not pan out if he doesn’t add weight, but the Celtics can afford to roll the dice.
26:
26. Boston Celtics: Tyler Bey (Wing/Big, Colorado)
By playing rookie Grant Williams in pivotal moments of this postseason, the Celtics showed how much they value the ability to play small with a floor full of smart, reliable defenders. Bey can switch on to multiple positions, and at age 22, he has both the brain and the body to play a role right away.
30:
30. Boston Celtics: Nico Mannion (Guard, Arizona)
Danny Ainge has a history of drafting top high school recruits who fall in the draft (such as Avery Bradley and Jared Sullinger) and he has a thing for small, sparkplug scoring guards (from Eddie House to Isaiah Thomas to Terry Rozier). Mannion checks both boxes: He was a top prospect, but struggled to create space off the dribble as a freshman, so his stock has fallen accordingly. But he has undeniable talent as a passer and shooter, making him worth the investment for teams in the late first round.
What say you, Port Cellar draftniks?
 

nighthob

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I was getting Bender flashbacks just reading it.
The flashbacks get even more pronounced when you watch the tape. I like to call him Draganito. We discussed that mock a couple of pages back. I could see Boston drafting Bey late as their high floor roleplayer pick. I’d be shocked if they took either Draganito or Mannion, though.
 

Sprowl

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The Ringer’s KOC has his first post-lottery mock out, here’s what he has the Celtics doing:

14:


26:


30:

What say you, Port Cellar draftniks?
Those picks don't seem like the kind that Danny likes (with the possible exception of Mannion). Ainge doesn't think that beanpoles are NBA bodies (so no Pokusevski), and he doesn't seek out older players with low ceilings just because they might be ready to play right away (so no Bey). There will be few if any minutes available to rookies in 2021, because Grant Williams and Romeo Langford will soak up anything left over after Tatum-Smart-Brown-Walker-Hayward and the three-headed center get their minutes.

I would expect Ainge to seek out explosive athletes with NBA bodies but minimal experience and the potential to develop new skills in the G League.
 

tbrown_01923

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  • Can they get 15 minutes a game from Romeo
  • Is wanamaker leaving (free agent after this year, i can see danny siging up to 3mm a year)?
  • Is it possible to cross-grade Semi with someone cheaper and with more control?
  • It'd be nice to have a sharpshooter off the bench (can this be carsen)
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Those picks don't seem like the kind that Danny likes (with the possible exception of Mannion). Ainge doesn't think that beanpoles are NBA bodies (so no Pokusevski), and he doesn't seek out older players with low ceilings just because they might be ready to play right away (so no Bey). There will be few if any minutes available to rookies in 2021, because Grant Williams and Romeo Langford will soak up anything left over after Tatum-Smart-Brown-Walker-Hayward and the three-headed center get their minutes.

I would expect Ainge to seek out explosive athletes with NBA bodies but minimal experience and the potential to develop new skills in the G League.
I don’t follow college much, but Cole Anthony strikes me as more of an Ainge pick. Highly touted out of high school, draft stock dropped due to injury, could be the microwave scorer off the bench we’ve been pining for, decent chance he’s there at 14.
 

BigSoxFan

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I don’t follow college much, but Cole Anthony strikes me as more of an Ainge pick. Highly touted out of high school, draft stock dropped due to injury, could be the microwave scorer off the bench we’ve been pining for, decent chance he’s there at 14.
Agreed. I think he is and he would be a nice bench piece to develop along with Langford. I also think he’s a better shooter than his stats would suggest because he had to do everything for UNC. I also think he plays with fire, which is obviously a Danny plus. I would be happy with him at 14 provided an unexpected slider weren’t there. Definitely prefer him over a Eurostash.
 

benhogan

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The Ringer’s KOC has his first post-lottery mock out, here’s what he has the Celtics doing:

14:


26:


30:

What say you, Port Cellar draftniks?
Hate all of those picks. This is a little shocking since KOC is pretty clever. Those selections don't feel Ainge-like for all the reasons Sprowl and others have stated before.
 

nighthob

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Those picks don't seem like the kind that Danny likes (with the possible exception of Mannion). Ainge doesn't think that beanpoles are NBA bodies (so no Pokusevski), and he doesn't seek out older players with low ceilings just because they might be ready to play right away (so no Bey). There will be few if any minutes available to rookies in 2021, because Grant Williams and Romeo Langford will soak up anything left over after Tatum-Smart-Brown-Walker-Hayward and the three-headed center get their minutes.

I would expect Ainge to seek out explosive athletes with NBA bodies but minimal experience and the potential to develop new skills in the G League.
In fairness he does have a tendency to choose high floor upperclassmen late in the first round. Especially in first rounds where he has multiple picks. While we forget because Grant Williams is so young, he was a three year player. He's also a high floor/lower ceiling type.

Off the top of my head, guys that fit that profile in Ainge's draft history, in 2004 there were Delonte West and Tony Allen. They mostly punted the first round for the remainder of the decade. They gambled on Gerald Green in 2005 with their only first round pick, but traded #1s to shed salary in '06 and to acquire Ray Allen in '07. In '08 they repeated the Gerald Green error with JR Giddens.

In the 10s they drafted Jared Sullinger in the late first. Sullinger was an underclassman, but he was also one of those high floor/lower ceiling types. One that, alas, ate his way out of the NBA. In that same draft they gambled on the upside of Fab Melo, which busted, obviously (and hurts as there were a couple of upside guys that check Danny's normal boxes in Kris Middleton and Will Barton, I put this one on Doc as he loved big centers).

In the Marcis Smart draft he broke ranks in order to draft James Young, but Young so checked all of Ainge's boxes that he probably couldn't resist drafting him over a high floor pick. The next draft they'd given a draft promise to Larry Nance Jr, only to have the Lakers peach him with the pick in front of theirs, so they gambled on RJ Hunter's shooting keeping him in the NBA.

We'll pass over '16 as the special circumstances draft, but last year the pattern repeated again, a high upside player at #14 and then Grant Williams at #22.

This year is a special circumstances draft given the paucity of high upside guys. But I would be unshocked if they gambled on someone like RJ Hampton at #14. Other likely #10-#20 draftees that fit that high upside/athletic profile from this pool: Patrick Williams, Precious Achiuwa, Devin Vassell, Aaron Nesmith, and Kira Lewis Jr (he's rail thin, but he's also one of the youngest guys in this draft despite being a sophomore, and if he can add 25-30lbs he could turn out to be one of the best players in the pool).

There's a second group of guys that will go #20-#40 that also fit that profile, and I would be unshocked to see one of these names called at 26 or 30: Jaden McDaniels (same problem as Kira), Theo Maledon (the right handed Killian Hayes, but about 30-40lbs lighter), Josh Green, Cassius Stanley (the lack of length is going to impact his defense, but he'll be instant offense in a bench role), Paul Reed (size/mass is a concern in a big). Jay Scrubb also fits that profile, and I'm warming up to him, though he's a complete lottery ticket (I've now watched more JuCo footage than any sane man should, when I have a few minutes I'll do a write up). But I wouldn't be shocked if Boston tabbed him at #30 or #47.

Guys in that same range that fit the high floor group: Robert Woodard II (reminds me a little of Tobias Harris, only he actually plays some defense, not as good offensively, though), Tyler Bey (size, length, athleticism, plays defense, not much of an offensive contributor, though), Isaiah Stewart (they normally like upperclassmen in this category, but Stewart is a rock solid defensive player and modern C with his 6'9"/250 frame and +7 wingspan), Grant Riller (wingspan might be an issue, he's not K-Rex, takes too many plays off defensively, but effective offensive player that could step right into the Brad Wannamaker role), Tyrese Maxey (there's upside here, but he also has a pretty high floor, possibly a more athletic Wannamaker), Xavier Tillman (6'8", but the wingspan means that he can give you C minutes), and Desmond Bane (athleticism's an issue, but he shoots lights out).
 
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nighthob

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I don’t follow college much, but Cole Anthony strikes me as more of an Ainge pick. Highly touted out of high school, draft stock dropped due to injury, could be the microwave scorer off the bench we’ve been pining for, decent chance he’s there at 14.
He's a PG only with wingspan issues. So I'll be shocked if Boston picked him over Hampton who fits the exact same profile. Only with better length/athleticism.
 

NomarsFool

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I don't like Pokusevski at 14, but I think he'd be fun late in the first. He might not last, though, but I like the idea of lottery tickets late in the first. Maybe one of them will pan out.