2020 NBA Draft

Sam Ray Not

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
6,556
NYC
I don’t think anyone can say exactly how the negotiating went down, but yeah, given the general consensus on the cruddiness of the 2020 draft — and the fact that GS will already have a top 5-ish pick in it — I think we can assume it was GS who were angling for the 21-22 pick, poorly run as they are.
 
Last edited:

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
34,717
There’s definitely a high floor/low ceiling trade off with Toppin. The problem is that from 4-40 you’re looking at either roleplayer level talent of varying degrees or higher upside players completely without any floor at all that are more likely to be out of he NBA in four years than to be anything like their 1% projections. Put more succinctly, this is a shitty year to have a lottery pick.

EDIT: Toppin’s not a wing, he’s going to be a 4/5 that’s at least switchable. He’ll give you nice defense, decent perimeter shooting, and be a useful NBA starter. But a future star he’s not. It’s one reason I thought Minnesota’s insistence that the Warriors take a ‘21 or ‘22 pick bizarre (because those drafts have star power out to the late lottery).
He’s always given me a MaMo vibe. And that’s a pretty good player when the head is on straight. I’m hoping age scares people off on him. Would be a nice 2nd unit scoring option. Defense gives me some pause. Feet are kind of slow so not sure Brad would be down. But offensively he’s a nice talent.
 

Sam Ray Not

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
6,556
NYC
There’s definitely a high floor/low ceiling trade off with Toppin. The problem is that from 4-40 you’re looking at either roleplayer level talent of varying degrees or higher upside players completely without any floor at all that are more likely to be out of he NBA in four years than to be anything like their 1% projections. Put more succinctly, this is a shitty year to have a lottery pick.
Hmm, I agree that it looks like a crap draft overall, but I also think there’s a group of 8-10 guys who seem to have separated themselves from the pack. I’m assuming Wiseman, Edwards, Ball are your #1-3 guys? After that, Anthony, Toppin, Hayes, Halliburton, Okongwu, Hampton, Avdija, in some order. I’d be surprised if any of those guys dropped out of the top 15.

Fron the Warriors’ perspective: if we’re not lucking into Wiseman or Edwards (and not trading the pick) I’m kinda leaning towards a Killian Hayes upside play. Big enough to play alongside Steph, with more star upside than the others, imo. One of the many nice things about the Wiggins trade is that it freed the Warriors up to go BPA in a draft that’s rife with aspiring DLos and extremely thin in aspiring Wigginses.
 
Last edited:

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
8,689
Santa Monica
Worth keeping an eye on in Kentucky games, late 1st rounder, Danny type guard:

Ashton Hagans, Kentucky — The common sentiment in the league seems to be that Hagans is an early second-rounder in the 35-to-45 range. I think this sells him short.

Hagans has one weakness, and if he fixes it he’s an NBA starter. He’s shooting 27 percent from 3 for his career on low volume, sooooo …. yes, that’s a problem.

But look everywhere else for a minute. He’s one of the best defensive players in the country, a constant pest with tenacity, size (6-3) and quickness who swipes 3.5 steals per 100 without inordinate gambling. His ball pressure, in particular, has cracked several lesser guards.

He rebounds well for his size, is a good passer and creator who can make plays in transition, and should get a double-boost offensively when he comes to the NBA: First, he should be able to get to the basket more by playing on a team with actual shooting as opposed to Kentucky (his Wildcats have one player making more than one 3 a game and shooting better than 30 percent. One). And second, a pro system would likely give him more opportunities to create for teammates, particularly on pick-and-roll lobs and kickouts.

Finally, let’s go back to the shooting. Hagans is shooting 80.9 percent from the line this year and 78.9 percent career, but people act like he’s Chris Dudley. The eye test says the same thing – this part of his game doesn’t seem so far gone as to be unfixable. Once you get past the lottery, I think Hagans starts becoming a reasonable proposition.


 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
Cole Anthony still has among the best individual skills in the draft but boy is he ever playing himself out of the lottery by returning to the court this year. I see a ton of guys projected as late 1st/2nd rounders who should have productive NBA careers and many are bigs who may be severely UNDERvalued this summer. Oturu, Isaish Stewart, Bassey, and even a toolsy 7-footer like Makur Maker seem like the "new" NBA is undervaluing them in these mocks. What about Azubuike at Kansas? He singlehandedly destroyed Iowa State the other night, faced up one time from the FT line and put on The Dream Shake I swear I thought I was watching a young Hakeem.

Guards like Isaiah Joe and Hagans seem like NBA players while I have my "Devonte Graham of 2020" being Devon Dotson who is one of my favorite college players this year. How does he not make it in this league and I see some have him in the 50's!
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
3,731
around the way
Worth keeping an eye on in Kentucky games, late 1st rounder, Danny type guard:

Ashton Hagans, Kentucky — The common sentiment in the league seems to be that Hagans is an early second-rounder in the 35-to-45 range. I think this sells him short.

Hagans has one weakness, and if he fixes it he’s an NBA starter. He’s shooting 27 percent from 3 for his career on low volume, sooooo …. yes, that’s a problem.

But look everywhere else for a minute. He’s one of the best defensive players in the country, a constant pest with tenacity, size (6-3) and quickness who swipes 3.5 steals per 100 without inordinate gambling. His ball pressure, in particular, has cracked several lesser guards.

He rebounds well for his size, is a good passer and creator who can make plays in transition, and should get a double-boost offensively when he comes to the NBA: First, he should be able to get to the basket more by playing on a team with actual shooting as opposed to Kentucky (his Wildcats have one player making more than one 3 a game and shooting better than 30 percent. One). And second, a pro system would likely give him more opportunities to create for teammates, particularly on pick-and-roll lobs and kickouts.

Finally, let’s go back to the shooting. Hagans is shooting 80.9 percent from the line this year and 78.9 percent career, but people act like he’s Chris Dudley. The eye test says the same thing – this part of his game doesn’t seem so far gone as to be unfixable. Once you get past the lottery, I think Hagans starts becoming a reasonable proposition.


Hagans looks like Rozier 2.0.
 

DannyDarwinism

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 7, 2007
4,041
Hagans looks like Rozier 2.0.
Hagans is already a much better floor general than Terry ever will be, and a better defender than Rozier was in college. Not nearly the threat to score with the ball in his hands though.

I think I compared Hagans to Wayne Turner here last year, and although it wasn’t just based off of the uniform, I now think that sells him short since his shot isn’t nearly as broken as Turner’s was. But I loved Wayne Turner, and if he had a jumper, he would’ve played a long time in the league.

HRB, I think we discussed Joe last year- I’m still a fan as one of the better shooters in the draft, and a guy who can actually play some D (unlike the kid from Vandy who’s name escapes me right now) and has a frame to fill out a bit. But Joe had a subpar sophomore year, then got hurt, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him fall out of the first. Would be happy with him for the Bucks pick. And agreed on Stewart and Dotson. Those guys can play in the NBA.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
8,689
Santa Monica
more from Hollinger, this guy sounds interesting:

Patrick Williams, Florida State — Let me start with this hot take: Williams is likely to be the youngest American player in the draft, and that alone makes me think he’s undervalued.

Commentators often complain that NBA teams are too “age biased” in the draft and don’t value upperclassmen enough. But if you really study it, the opposite conclusion wins out: Actually, teams probably haven’t been age-biased enough. We remember the exceptions (I see you, Jimmy Butler), but gloss over the many glorious failures (I’ll just stay here while you skim through the 2015 first round).

In this case, Williams’ allure is obvious – an athletic 6-8 forward who shows enough defensive chops to check multiple positions. Offensively, he plays a secondary role on a loaded Florida State team but tempts with his shooting potential (33.3 percent from 3, 87.2 percent from FT).

Feel questions are the biggest obstacle — he makes too many turnovers and doesn’t always look like he has a plan for where he’s going once he starts dribbling. You’d also like to see him rebound more. But those feel issues go away on the defensive end, where he gets his hands on a ton of balls (2.5 steals and 2.9 blocks per 100) for one of the nation’s best defensive teams.

The consensus take on Williams right now is that he ranks in the 20s. I think that’s way too low in a draft with so few sure things; he should be a late-lottery pick. Starting small forwards, especially ones with size, are the hardest commodity to find in the league and cost the most to replace in free agency. Williams has a pretty clear runway to becoming one.



Hollinger also mentions Elijah Hughes, he's just another Syracuse system player, not worth drafting this year. Maybe next season
 
Last edited:

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
8,689
Santa Monica
Cole Anthony still has among the best individual skills in the draft but boy is he ever playing himself out of the lottery by returning to the court this year. I see a ton of guys projected as late 1st/2nd rounders who should have productive NBA careers and many are bigs who may be severely UNDERvalued this summer. Oturu, Isaish Stewart, Bassey, and even a toolsy 7-footer like Makur Maker seem like the "new" NBA is undervaluing them in these mocks. What about Azubuike at Kansas? He singlehandedly destroyed Iowa State the other night, faced up one time from the FT line and put on The Dream Shake I swear I thought I was watching a young Hakeem.

Guards like Isaiah Joe and Hagans seem like NBA players while I have my "Devonte Graham of 2020" being Devon Dotson who is one of my favorite college players this year. How does he not make it in this league and I see some have him in the 50's!
not much demand for Centers that can't play immediately, since experienced ones can be had for short/little $$$

between developing TL, VP and Tacko which one do you show the door? so they can add another project that will get lost on defense for a season or two AND clog the lane offensively

that being said I'd love to see the C's get their hands on Isiah Stewart
 
Last edited:

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
1,960
Cultural hub of the universe
Worth keeping an eye on in Kentucky games, late 1st rounder, Danny type guard:

Ashton Hagans, Kentucky — The common sentiment in the league seems to be that Hagans is an early second-rounder in the 35-to-45 range. I think this sells him short.

Hagans has one weakness, and if he fixes it he’s an NBA starter. He’s shooting 27 percent from 3 for his career on low volume, sooooo …. yes, that’s a problem.

But look everywhere else for a minute. He’s one of the best defensive players in the country, a constant pest with tenacity, size (6-3) and quickness who swipes 3.5 steals per 100 without inordinate gambling. His ball pressure, in particular, has cracked several lesser guards.

He rebounds well for his size, is a good passer and creator who can make plays in transition, and should get a double-boost offensively when he comes to the NBA: First, he should be able to get to the basket more by playing on a team with actual shooting as opposed to Kentucky (his Wildcats have one player making more than one 3 a game and shooting better than 30 percent. One). And second, a pro system would likely give him more opportunities to create for teammates, particularly on pick-and-roll lobs and kickouts.

Finally, let’s go back to the shooting. Hagans is shooting 80.9 percent from the line this year and 78.9 percent career, but people act like he’s Chris Dudley. The eye test says the same thing – this part of his game doesn’t seem so far gone as to be unfixable. Once you get past the lottery, I think Hagans starts becoming a reasonable proposition.


When I've watched Kentucky I've been impressed with Hagans, and keep wondering why he's not more highly regarded. Maxey OTOH looks like a poor man's Malik Monk, and he's in the lottery? We'll see I guess.

And what about Carey? Putting up great numbers as a young freshman on the toughest stage in CBB. I guess Okafor did too.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
8,689
Santa Monica
When I've watched Kentucky I've been impressed with Hagans, and keep wondering why he's not more highly regarded. Maxey OTOH looks like a poor man's Malik Monk, and he's in the lottery? We'll see I guess.

And what about Carey? Putting up great numbers as a young freshman on the toughest stage in CBB. I guess Okafor did too.
Not that the Celtics should draft for positional need but I like the idea of drafting guys that are defense-first wings/guards. As long as Hagans has a good work ethic/attitude than betting on his 80% FT shooting eventually leaking into his 3pt shooting is a good wager.

As far as Carey, the classic 5s are just so screwed, we all can see the supply/demand issue playing out. If Houston does well in the playoffs, with an old, bulky 6'5" PJ Tucker at the 5, it will only accelerate the process.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
44,293
deep inside Guido territory
When I've watched Kentucky I've been impressed with Hagans, and keep wondering why he's not more highly regarded. Maxey OTOH looks like a poor man's Malik Monk, and he's in the lottery? We'll see I guess.

And what about Carey? Putting up great numbers as a young freshman on the toughest stage in CBB. I guess Okafor did too.
Lots of mocks have Carey going late 1st.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
not much demand for Centers that can't play immediately, since experienced ones can be had for short/little $$$

between developing TL, VP and Tacko which one do you show the door? so they can add another project that will get lost on defense for a season or two AND clog the lane offensively

that being said I'd love to see the C's get their hands on Isiah Stewart
I wasn’t referring specifically to the Celtics more in general based on what I’m seeing in these mocks. Who knows how much actual executive info they are receiving to grade them as such however.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
8,689
Santa Monica
I wasn’t referring specifically to the Celtics more in general based on what I’m seeing in these mocks. Who knows how much actual executive info they are receiving to grade them as such however.
the Mocks see the vast supply of NBA 5s and declining demand which will lead to less interest in drafting them high

the Celtics glut at the 5 is pretty universal across the NBA.
 

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
3,968
How does draft and stash work? If the Celtics draft an international player and they play for some team in Europe, are they paid the salary they would have made in the NBA? Does it count against the cap?

I would still like it if the Celtics had a younger player who was taller than 6'8" in their pipeline. I'm not talking about a traditional 5, but someone who could play their system but had a bit more length than JB/JT. Taking an international "lottery ticket" type pick might be a good way to do that.
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
1,960
Cultural hub of the universe
the Mocks see the vast supply of NBA 5s and declining demand which will lead to less interest in drafting them high

the Celtics glut at the 5 is pretty universal across the NBA.
And yet Wiseman is top 3 wherever I look, and Okongwu in the top 8, so it's not universal. We're seeing a number of NBA teams, Milwaukee, Philly and the Lakers most notably, still going big with their lineups.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
8,661
Okongwu is not exactly what I would call a traditional center. Neither is Wiseman, really. Reminds me a little of Chris Bosh at the college level. But if you’re drafting him you’re hoping that he can extend his game further out on the perimeter.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
8,689
Santa Monica
And yet Wiseman is top 3 wherever I look, and Okongwu in the top 8, so it's not universal. We're seeing a number of NBA teams, Milwaukee, Philly, and the Lakers most notably, still going big with their lineups.
HRB was questioning why so many BIGs were dropping on Mocks this year?
I believe it's because there are plenty of centers available at the NBA level on the cheap. It seems like any player over 6'8" or 240lbs is now capable of playing minutes at the 5.

The days of teams drafting classic 7' BIG prospects are declining. And why Duke's Vernon Carey is dropping in Mocks. BUT you'll find tall athletic prospects like Wiseman and Okongwu (getting BAM comps) that can face the basket still in demand. In the top 17 picks last year there was only 1 center drafted in Jaxson Hayes (and he's very athletic).

The Bucks, Lakers, and Sixers play big because they have large All-NBA players in Giannis, Lebron, AD, Embiid and Simmons so yea that makes sense. Just note, the Lakers are spending very little for their very effective main center rotation, McGee ($4MM)/Howard($2.5MM). Milwaukee isn't spending a whole lot on Brooks/Robin either. It's looking like the 76ers did themselves no favors by signing Horford to that contract.
 
Last edited:

JCizzle

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 11, 2006
11,056
Based on a Google search it doesn't seem like he'll get drafted, but I'm watching Cincinnati-Houston and this Nate Hinton kid is giving me strong Marcus Smart type vibes on the defensive end. Seems to be super high energy and just made a couple of awesome plays.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
Based on a Google search it doesn't seem like he'll get drafted, but I'm watching Cincinnati-Houston and this Nate Hinton kid is giving me strong Marcus Smart type vibes on the defensive end. Seems to be super high energy and just made a couple of awesome plays.
I really like everything about Hinton's potential to be a role player in this league. He isn't a bad shooter by any means so if he has the work ethic to be consistent at the next level it doesn't take much to be a competent spot-up 3 shooter if you have your head together when you have the length/wingspan, athleticism, defensive motor, and rebounding ability (9.1 per game!) at the other end. I mean he checks all the boxes but is flying under the radar as a "non-star" player in the AAC.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
3,731
around the way
Can someone elaborate on why Stanley is mocked at the end of the first round? Have seen him play twice now, and the guy has stupid explosiveness. SSS of course.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
8,689
Santa Monica
sounds interesting


17. Boston Celtics (via MEM)
Aaron Nesmith | 6-6 wing | 19 years old, sophomore | Vanderbilt

The Celtics love to draft wing players in the first round, because that’s often where value can be found. Nesmith makes an awful lot of sense for them, too. He’s a terrific shooter, having hit 52.2 percent on 115 3-point shots in 14 games before being knocked out for the season with a foot injury. That’s a hot start, but Nesmith is a very real shooter who teams believe will be a 40 percent marksman from distance.

And at 6-foot-5 with at least a plus-five wingspan and a strong, physical frame, Nesmith looks ready and skilled enough to play in the NBA sooner rather than later. The upside is that of a starting NBA wing if things break right and at least an NBA rotation wing as long as the shooting translates at a reasonable level. NBA executives will want to get medical records on his foot prior to picking him, but Nesmith should hear his name called somewhere in the first round. He fits everything the league is about right now.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
sounds interesting


17. Boston Celtics (via MEM)
Aaron Nesmith | 6-6 wing | 19 years old, sophomore | Vanderbilt

The Celtics love to draft wing players in the first round, because that’s often where value can be found. Nesmith makes an awful lot of sense for them, too. He’s a terrific shooter, having hit 52.2 percent on 115 3-point shots in 14 games before being knocked out for the season with a foot injury. That’s a hot start, but Nesmith is a very real shooter who teams believe will be a 40 percent marksman from distance.

And at 6-foot-5 with at least a plus-five wingspan and a strong, physical frame, Nesmith looks ready and skilled enough to play in the NBA sooner rather than later. The upside is that of a starting NBA wing if things break right and at least an NBA rotation wing as long as the shooting translates at a reasonable level. NBA executives will want to get medical records on his foot prior to picking him, but Nesmith should hear his name called somewhere in the first round. He fits everything the league is about right now.

I like Nesmith a lot....he's my Caris LeVert of this years draft, minus the playmaking, complete with the foot problems which may allow him to drop to us. That Vanderbilt offense fell on its face when Nesmith was out of the lineup. I just wonder if he was a black hole offensively due to Vandy not having another offensive option to put the ball in the basket …...or simply because he is a black hole offensively.
 

Sam Ray Not

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
6,556
NYC
Lol @ “analyst who called Draymond Green’s rise in 2012.” Evan Z was basically the Eric Van of Golden State of Mind: a self-styled genius who was wrong as often as the next guy, but never let you hear the end of it when he got one right. He liked the Draymond pick (as did most Ws fans); but he also threw an epic hissy fit in the summer of 2014 when the team failed to close the Klay-for-Love trade, and spent the entire 2014 offseason scoffing at Bob Myers and ridiculing anyone who thought the 2014-15 team had even a remote chance at a serious playoff run — eventually getting himself exiled for being a constant pain in the ass.

More recently, IIRC: he also stopped by GSoM in 2018 to let everyone know how much he loved the Jacob Evans pick.

With all that said: who else does this “analyst who called Draymond Green’s rise” have in the top 10? ;-P
 

Sam Ray Not

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
6,556
NYC
Since most projections have in the mid-first range where you guys will be picking: what’s the consensus here on Saddiq Bey?

Some mocks (Tankathon e.g.) have him as low as #26, and I can’t really figure out why: rugged and versatile 6’-8” wing; fantastic shooter — possibly best in his draft class — and efficient scorer; supposedly outstanding defender; legit ball skills as a former PG; Jay Wright winning pedigree, and (according to a recent Forbes piece) a super high character and crazy work ethic. https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharycohen/2020/03/05/nobody-in-the-2020-nba-draft-craves-greatness-like-villanovas-saddiq-bey

So what’s the downside? On the face of it he seems to have everything you‘s want in a top 10 pick. Lack of explosive athleticism, I guess? Heck, forget the mid first round: given the warts all the top guys have, I’m kind of intrigued by him with the Warriors’ pick.
 
Last edited:

DannyDarwinism

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 7, 2007
4,041
Since most projections have in the mid-first range where you guys will be picking: what’s the consensus here on Saddiq Bey?

Some mocks (Tankathon e.g.) have him as low as #26, and I can’t really figure out why: rugged and versatile 6’-8” wing; fantastic shooter — possibly best in his draft class — and efficient scorer; supposedly outstanding defender; legit ball skills as a former PG; Jay Wright winning pedigree, and (according to a recent Forbes piece) a super high character and crazy work ethic. https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharycohen/2020/03/05/nobody-in-the-2020-nba-draft-craves-greatness-like-villanovas-saddiq-bey

So what’s the downside? On the face of it he seems to have everything you‘s want in a top 10 pick. Lack of explosive athleticism, I guess? Heck, forget the mid first round: given the warts all the top guys have, I’m kind of intrigued by him with the Warriors’ pick.
Agreed with everything here, though I think Aaron Nesmith is a better shooter, though I’d prefer Bey overall. I’d love to see him in green, and he fits the mold of an Ainge target- a wing with size, shooting, switchability, and great intangibles. I don’t really understand why he’s not a lotto projection while Isaac Okoro, a pretty similar player except for the fact that he can’t shoot, universally is. Granted Okoro’s two years younger and has a great frame, but give me the guy who’s already a dead-eye shooter. Any of Bey, Nesmith, Devin Vassell or Patrick Williams with that Memphis pick would make me pretty happy.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
8,661
With Okoro everyone’s dreaming on his shooting. With that package of size, length, and athleticism, if he learns to shoot he’s an all star. Basically he’s the draft’s Jaylen Brown. That being said I love Bey, and if he’s on the board at #17 there’s no way he gets past Boston.
 

Sam Ray Not

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
6,556
NYC
And lo and behold, Saddiq Bey shows up at #10 in the latest NBC Sports mock: https://sports.yahoo.com/2020-nba-mock-draft-2-182504378.html

Hadn't heard of the author, but he has some pretty good and detailed write-ups (though he leaves off Avidja and Hayes, admitting that he knows nothing about Euro hoops). Toppin, Okoro, and Bey are the three guys he would "want to be higher on" than other GMs.
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,754
It would take some serious off the court rumors or injury for Bey to last until 17 imo. The thing I really like about Bey is his leap in shooting pct from his FR to SO year which shows me that he effectively slowed the game down into his comfort zone......a great sign for his curve at the next level. 3PT% from 37.4% (which is already really good for a FR) to 45.1% as a SO on higher volume and FT% from 64.4% to 76.9%. Another great sign is that Bey was a relative unknown until the spring of his junior year in HS (he was a 5-9 guard as a FR) so as a late bloomer we've seen an explosive growth curve in Bey over the past 3-4 years.
 

DannyDarwinism

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 7, 2007
4,041
With Okoro everyone’s dreaming on his shooting. With that package of size, length, and athleticism, if he learns to shoot he’s an all star. Basically he’s the draft’s Jaylen Brown. That being said I love Bey, and if he’s on the board at #17 there’s no way he gets past Boston.
Hadn’t thought of the Jaylen comp, but that’s a good point- their freshman stats are really similar- shooting, stocks, assists, FT rate. JB with the higher usage and worse TOs, but undoubtedly in a worse situation at Cal.

There’s also some guys I consistently see mocked in the 2nd round that I think can quickly become rotation players on a good team. What about Xavier Tillman as an energy big, with some stretch potential? Moves the ball well, and always looks tough and smart to me. And Zeke Nnaji and Reggie Perry to lesser extents, if we’re looking for size. Killian Tillie if his medicals don’t sink him completely.
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
1,960
Cultural hub of the universe
I didn't watch much Auburn, but when I did Okoro never really stood out to me. I like my lottery picks to look like the best player on the floor. He looked more like a complimentary guy. That's all I've got.
 

CreedBratton

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 6, 2009
3,276
Hadn’t thought of the Jaylen comp, but that’s a good point- their freshman stats are really similar- shooting, stocks, assists, FT rate. JB with the higher usage and worse TOs, but undoubtedly in a worse situation at Cal.

There’s also some guys I consistently see mocked in the 2nd round that I think can quickly become rotation players on a good team. What about Xavier Tillman as an energy big, with some stretch potential? Moves the ball well, and always looks tough and smart to me. And Zeke Nnaji and Reggie Perry to lesser extents, if we’re looking for size. Killian Tillie if his medicals don’t sink him completely.
As a big Gonzaga guy, Tillie will be a massive steal in the second round if he can stay healthy.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
8,661
I didn't watch much Auburn, but when I did Okoro never really stood out to me. I like my lottery picks to look like the best player on the floor. He looked more like a complimentary guy. That's all I've got.
Unfortunately this is a draft full of complementary guys. Outside of Edwards and maybe Ball and Wiseman you’re drafting guys to put around your stars. I guess that Hampton has that potential, but potentially elite 3&D guys like Bey are a better bet.
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
1,960
Cultural hub of the universe
Interersting Top 5 article from The Athletic. Strauss makes a case for valuing efficiency and production over upside. His top 5: Hayes, Toppin, Haliburton, Okongwu, Okoro. I like the way he thinks, but tough to leave Wiseman and Edwards out of there.
 

Sam Ray Not

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
6,556
NYC
Interersting Top 5 article from The Athletic. Strauss makes a case for valuing efficiency and production over upside. His top 5: Hayes, Toppin, Haliburton, Okongwu, Okoro. I like the way he thinks, but tough to leave Wiseman and Edwards out of there.
Geez, and I thought I was the world’s biggest TS% fetishist! Excluding Anthony Edwards from the top 5 based on the .520 TS he put up in 30 college games *as a young 18 year old* is next-level fetishism. (Ethan used to hang out in the now quasi-defunct Golden State of Mind blog where I was a mod; he may have caught the same TS bug I did).

Here are Edwards’ rankings in the most recent HoopsHype 5.0 aggregate mock draft: 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 1, 1, 2. There may be a bit of an echo chamber effect therein, but by and large the people making those lists are a lot more knowledgeable and experienced with player projection than Ethan Strauss.

Meanwhile, here are the TS% of some notable teenagers:

LeBron age 19: .488
Durant age 19: .519
Beal age 19-20: .515, .507
Jaylen age 19 (at Cal): .518
Klay age 18 (at WSU): .527
Etc.

Ethan also hoists himself on his own petard a bit by noting (correctly) that FT% in young players tends to correlate well to future shooting ability. Edwards has put up 77% from the stripe at age 18, and 84% since January. He also — eye test alert — has a great-looking shooting stroke, compact and very natural looking.

Not be the “watch the games” guy — I’m a terrible eye-test judge, for one thing — but I don’t know how anyone can watch ten minutes’ worth of Edwards highlights at age 18 and Haliburton at age 20 and conclude that Haliburton is the better NBA prospect. Beyond looking like a totally different caliber of athlete — much stronger, smoother, more explosive — Edwards also has a much more natural-looking shooting stroke. Haliburton has great efficiency results, but at low volume, and with a slow, low release that does not look very projectable.

In any case, thanks for link. Ethan’s always a good read, and is honest about the fact that he’s being “unconventional” with his list. But I’m glad he’s not the one making decisions for the Warriors (at least as far as I know?)
 
Last edited:

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
1,960
Cultural hub of the universe
Yeah, not fully buying Strauss. Always easier to turn an athlete into a basketball player than to upgrade the athleticism of a guy with skills . Silly really not to fully look at both, and try to project which might reasonably be thought to improve.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
8,661
Killian Hayes is a major athlete, but his right hand is so bad that he borders on So bad that he can't finish himself with his right category. The red flag with Hayes is that he's spent more time learning left handed circus shots than improving the right.
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
1,960
Cultural hub of the universe
Nice piece in the Athletic about some prospects that might be available/interesting to the Celtics. Maxey, Achiuwa, Bey, Nesmith and Green are those discussed. Both Weiss and Vecenie like Maxey (Rozier comp) and Achiuwa at 17. Nesmith and Bey get dinged a little for lack of athleticism, although both could be solid catch and shoot prospects. Green seems to have some defensive upside but needs work on offense.

 

Swedgin

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2013
275
Nice piece in the Athletic about some prospects that might be available/interesting to the Celtics. Maxey, Achiuwa, Bey, Nesmith and Green are those discussed. Both Weiss and Vecenie like Maxey (Rozier comp) and Achiuwa at 17. Nesmith and Bey get dinged a little for lack of athleticism, although both could be solid catch and shoot prospects. Green seems to have some defensive upside but needs work on offense.


Part two is up now focusing on the other first round picks. Really well done, though admit I am biased because it included a couple of the guys I favor. They considered Kira Lewis , Tre Jones, Isiah Stewart, Daniel Oturu, Xavier Tillman, Zeke Nnaji, Patrick Williams and Cassius Stanley
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
1,960
Cultural hub of the universe
Part two is up now focusing on the other first round picks. Really well done, though admit I am biased because it included a couple of the guys I favor. They considered Kira Lewis , Tre Jones, Isiah Stewart, Daniel Oturu, Xavier Tillman, Zeke Nnaji, Patrick Williams and Cassius Stanley
Yeah another good piece, although I wish they would take a little stronger stance on prospects. Didn't really come away with a sense of who they thought would be great picks at each slot. Then there was "Carsen Edwards is a cold-blooded assassin from distance" which made me wonder if Sam Vecenie watched much Celtics ball this year.