2020 NBA Draft discussion

oumbi

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For what it is worth, over on Celticsstrong there is a poster who seems to live in Europe and seems to know the basketball leagues and players there. His suggestion is for the Celtics to draft PG Theo Maledon. He believes that Maledon is not only very talented, but smart and very young (18 years old). The poster believes Maledon is about to take the "next step", which I assume means he is about to jump up in skills.

http://www.tankathon.com/players/theo-maledon
I watched the videos and Maledon looks like a good mid-range pick. In the videos I watched he never shot or finished with his left hand though. The CS poster acknowledges that but says with practice and confidence it will go away as a problem. So, someone else for us to consider.

EDIT: Here is the CS thread I mentioned above.

https://forum.celticsstrong.com/index.php?topic=102384.new#new
 

DannyDarwinism

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Nice piece in the Athletic about some prospects that might be available/interesting to the Celtics. Maxey, Achiuwa, Bey, Nesmith and Green are those discussed. Both Weiss and Vecenie like Maxey (Rozier comp) and Achiuwa at 17. Nesmith and Bey get dinged a little for lack of athleticism, although both could be solid catch and shoot prospects. Green seems to have some defensive upside but needs work on offense.

https://theathletic.com/1743082/2020/04/14/celtics-draft-spotlight-part-1/?source=dailyemail

Rozier seems like a more realistic comp for Maxey than a lot of what I've been seeing. I like him as a college player, but it's tough for guys his size to have a lot of value if they don't distribute particularly well. But a lot of people are high on him and I'm almost always wrong in trying to figure out which of the Kentucky combo guards actually have ancillary skills versus the ones who merely appear to have been held back by the system, so I dunno. I would be surprised if he lasts to the Memphis pick though.

I would be really happy with Kira Lewis in the late first, but I figured we'd have to take him with the Memphis pick if we wanted him. I think I'd take him straight up over Maxey, who he's 6 months younger than, despite being a sophomore. He doesn't have Maxey's strength, but he can play point and he's young, productive, athletic and can shoot, which gives him more upside than the other non-lottery PG prospects. He's got legit De'Aaron Fox-type speed.
 

nighthob

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For what it is worth, over on Celticsstrong there is a poster who seems to live in Europe and seems to know the basketball leagues and players there. His suggestion is for the Celtics to draft PG Theo Maledon. He believes that Maledon is not only very talented, but smart and very young (18 years old). The poster believes Maledon is about to take the "next step", which I assume means he is about to jump up in skills.

http://www.tankathon.com/players/theo-maledon
I watched the videos and Maledon looks like a good mid-range pick. In the videos I watched he never shot or finished with his left hand though. The CS poster acknowledges that but says with practice and confidence it will go away as a problem. So, someone else for us to consider.
I kinda/sorta agree with him. I have seen Maledon make shots with his left hand, but only because I've watched waaaaaaay too much tape. If you could combine Maledon with Killian Hayes you'd have a #1 worthy player. As it is what I can say for Maledon is that his left is better than Hayes' right. Which is like saying dying of a heart attack is better than dying of ass cancer because they both suck.

Maledon's shot mechanics aren't a problem, per se, but that release of his is slow, so he won't really be more than a complementary scorer. He gets dinged for his athleticism, but I think it's for the same reason that Tatum does, he glides across the court. Yet he covers as much distance as anyone as he does it. He's shifty and changes speeds and directions extremely well. Watch any highlight reel and you'll see at least one play where the defender beats him to the spot with feet to spare only to end up waving helplessly as Maledon breezes by him. If there's a reason to be hopeful about Maledon learning to finish with his left it's his left handle, he dribbles pretty well with it. So it's not completely useless.

Defensively he has the size/length/athleticism package needed to handle modern switch all the time D. He's roughly the same size as Langford, although Langford's a little bit longer. Switch left to right and this scouting report works for Hayes (though I think he's a better shooter). I like both guys, but they both have a significant hole in their games to repair if they're to become NBA lead guards.
 

Sam Ray Not

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WEEI continues to be next to useless.

To start, why would they have the Chicago Bulls picking #1? Toppin going #13? strange stuff

https://weei.radio.com/articles/radiocom/2020-nba-mock-draft-latest-1st-round-picks-for-each-team
I’d guess they just generated a random draft order on Tankathon or the like, which imho isn’t any less valid than assuming the lotto will shake out in exact order of reverse W-L record.

On Toppin: not sure I’ve seen him quite as low as #13, but I have seen concerns voiced that he doesn’t have an NBA position, defensively.
 

benhogan

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I’d guess they just generated a random draft order on Tankathon or the like, which imho isn’t any less valid than assuming the lotto will shake out in exact order of reverse W-L record.

On Toppin: not sure I’ve seen him quite as low as #13, but I have seen concerns voiced that he doesn’t have an NBA position, defensively.
If Toppin is at 13 I'd hope the C's package all their 1st and 2nd rounders this year for him and call it a day
 

NoXInNixon

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Assuming the Celtics have the 17, 26, and 30th picks in the first round this year, what would they realistically get in a package for all three? I've looked at a few draft pick value charts, and the put the value at somewhere around #5, however they all say that the team trading up will not expect to get full value, so they'd probably end up with something in the 7-10 range.

So first, what teams likely to be drafting in that range would place more value on making three picks in the second half of the first round vs one pick in the mid to late lottery? A team that is far away from contending with lots of holes to fill, and/or a team about to start a rebuild. Sounds a lot like Washington at #9. Toppin might be available there, and as others have said, he's a great fit for the Celtics. I also like Okongwu a lot, who could be available at 9.
 

nighthob

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There’s really no point to trading up this year. If they’re dealing they’re better of dealing for future firsts.
 

NoXInNixon

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There’s really no point to trading up this year. If they’re dealing they’re better of dealing for future firsts.
Future firsts will have a ton of protections that I want no part of. This year is a bad year to have the #1 or #2 pick, but picks in the high single digits are pretty much the same year to year.
 

Kliq

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Everything I read about LaMelo seems to be a mirror of Lonzo. He's a big point guard with great vision that has terrible shooting mechanics, avoids contact at the rim and lacks the burst to beat defenders. I'd be hesitant to pick him in the top five.
 

nighthob

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Future firsts will have a ton of protections that I want no part of. This year is a bad year to have the #1 or #2 pick, but picks in the high single digits are pretty much the same year to year.
All draft picks are protected, so who cares if you trade #26 in ‘20 for a ‘25 #1? This is a roleplayer draft. The quality at #9 is not significantly different than at #17 or #26.
 

BigSoxFan

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I’m keeping all 3 picks in a year where scouting is incomplete and hoping that someone interesting slides to the 20s, for whatever reason. Would ideally keep 17 and trade 26/30 for a low 20s pick if someone slides.
 

benhogan

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Perusing KOCs list:

I'd stay away from drafting a BIG with the first 2 picks but would definitely use the Mil pick on the kid from Minnesota, Daniel Oturu or on Vernon Carey if he continues his cliff dive

I'd love to see the C's get Nesmith and/or Patrick Williams with their first two picks

the salary cap, more then ever, is going to dictate the value of 1st round picks this year
 
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Sam Ray Not

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I also like Okongwu a lot, who could be available at 9.
Okongwu would be freaking incredible on the Cs, but he may be the fastest riser on the board right now, with Killian Hayes.

KOC / The Ringer has him at #5.
Tankathon #2.
SI #2.
USA Today #3.
CBS Sports #4.

As to why a 6'-9" center with no proven ball skills or floor-stretching ability should be prized that highly, I think Richard Stayman at SI may have summed it up in two words: "defensive unicorn." He's an elite rim protector who apparently moves/switches like a wing and can lock people up all over the floor. Beyond that: incredible motor, great hands and finishing ability, and a nice FT stroke, which could presage offensive stretchability down the road. Put up elite college numbers in a top conference, and is almost three years younger than Obi Toppin.

I definitely won't complain if he ends up a Warrior.
 

NomarsFool

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So, it seems like your record in the seeding games impacts whether or not you are in the lottery, but aside from that, doesn't impact your lottery chances (the slots are based entirely on the W/L records already in the books).
 

NomarsFool

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I guess discussion of next season won't really start in earnest until they have an agreement to start this season, but a draft in mid October puts that happening after training camp (and the preseason) usually starts. Last year the first games were about the 3rd week of October, I believe.

If next season doesn't end up starting until December, it won't really be an issue, though.
 

nighthob

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I just read Vecenie’s latest mock and he has Boston taking Ty Maxey in the mid first. I think draft analysts put way too much emphasis on mocking traditional centers and point guards to Boston, when they just don’t seem to value those guys very highly. I can’t see them passing up someone like Josh Green for Maxey.

You can’t even raise Green’s shooting as Maxey’s jumper is also pretty terrible. But Green is a Jaylen type (athletic 6’6” wing w/6’10” wingspan and 8’8” standing reach) that can defend 1-4 while Maxey’s a 6’3” player that doesn’t look very switchy (6’3” w/ 6’4” wingspan and 8’3” standing reach).

Kenyon Martin Jr. is apparently in this draft, he’s got his old man’s athleticism in a pretty good size package (6’7” 210) for a 19 year old. His game looks really raw on the offensive end (his footwork when setting screens is flat out awful). But given that Boston has a pick in the total crapshoot section of the draft, he might be worth a second round flier as a two way prospect.

Vecenie also mentions the possibility that Golden State looks to move their 2020 #1 for immediate help, and if it’s not #1 they very well could look to go that route. It would keep alive my dream of seeing Isaac Okoro in Boston. As a 6’6” 230lb Marcus Smart he’d give Boston some of the best bench D in the NBA (plus it would be hilarious to see Embiid weeping in frustration at having to face Marcii when Philly plays Boston).
 

scottyno

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What do the celtics have that golden state would want for a high lottery pick besides guys the cs are never moving?
 

nighthob

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Long term one of Walker, Hayward, or Jaylen has to go in order to keep Boston from getting fubared by the luxury taxes. So, yes, in fact, they will move them.
 

scottyno

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Long term one of Walker, Hayward, or Jaylen has to go in order to keep Boston from getting fubared by the luxury taxes. So, yes, in fact, they will move them.
While I agree with this overall, Jaylen isn't going anywhere this fall, the warriors wouldn't want Kemba, and Hayward's value as either a S+T or a 1 year max rental is far less than the Ws pick
 

nighthob

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In a normal draft that might be true (as the Warriors pick could easily be #5 with the flatter odds), but this draft is really a roleplayer one. So a top five pick has a lot less value this year. And if the Warriors could turn their pick and Andrew Wiggins into a better performer on a short term deal they’d likely do it in a cocaine heartbeat. Boston, on the other hand, wouldn’t touch it unless they knew they had a way of unloading Wiggins for nothing.
 
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Jimbodandy

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why is SEC Player of the Year Immanuel Quickley mocked to go deep in the 2nd round?

The guy can shoot and could eventually be a 6' 3" PG with 6' 8"+ wingspan

I wouldn't mind the C's using the Milwaukee pick on him

https://kentuckysportsradio.com/basketball-2/immanuel-quickley-is-kentuckys-most-underrated-nba-prospect/
There are a number of guys currently mocked in the second round that I think have jobs in the NBA. He's one of them.

I like Stanley and Winston, and nobody has either guy going above 40.
 

benhogan

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There are a number of guys currently mocked in the second round that I think have jobs in the NBA. He's one of them.

I like Stanley and Winston, and nobody has either guy going above 40.
Quickley is my favorite 2nd round mock, but agree on Winston/Stanley, also like Ramsey/Nwora/Oturu in the 2nd round mock below

Seems like this draft will have a bunch of decent role/bench players.

Maybe having three 1st rounders (14, 26, 30) trumps having #9/10... Danny luck strikes again

http://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft
 
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Jimbodandy

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Quickley is my favorite 2nd round mock, but agree on Winston/Stanley, also like Ramsey/Nwora/Oturu in the 2nd round mock below

Seems like this draft will have a bunch of decent role/bench players.

Maybe having three 1st rounders (14, 26, 30) trumps having #9/10... Danny luck strikes again

http://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft
Not bad for a simulator.

Yep that's more quality 2nd rounders.
Some sites have Stewart in the 2nd, and he'll stick around too I think.

There doesn't seem to be a lot of game changers, but this draft may lead the last bunch in service time accrued.
 

nighthob

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Looking at guys projected in the 21-50 range.

Cassius Stanley – Duke Pros, great shooter and transition scorer with good size (6'6") and serious hops. Cons, terrible length (also 6'6") and needs some body work (he's 185-190). He has a real future as an NBA bench scorer.

Josh Green – Arizona Pros, great size/length combination (6'6" 205 with a 6'10" wingspan), and athleticism. Very aggressive defender that hunts the passing lanes well. Cons, he's one of those If you could fix the jumper players that's going to test Jay Larranaga's patience.

Tyler Bey – Colorado Looks like Shawn Marion Lite, with the same size/length combination (6’7” 220 with a seven foot wingspan). Aggressive rebounder, uses his length well to block shots and hunt the passing lanes. Cons, he also has Shawn Marion’s jumper. But much like Green if you could fix the jumper you’d have a major 3&D guy that would thrive next to Jayson and Jaylen.

Isaiah Stewart – Washington Pros, great size for a C in the pace & space era (6'9" 250 with a 7'4" wingspan). Solid as a rock and good footwork, so should be an effective screener at the next level. Great roll guy on the pick & roll. Aggressive defender/rebounder. Cons, the shooting motion needs a little work. He also fancies himself a post scorer and primary option. Which is unideal in an other guy on the floor roll. Also sells out his defense to chase offensive rebounds too often.

Desmond Bane – TCU Pros, reminds me a little of Buddy Hield. Very quick release on the jumper. Great catch & shoot guy. Cons, not at all athletic, old (he just turned 22, I think), and his foot speed is such that it might be three years before he catches up to the speed of the NBA.

Jaden McDaniels – Washington (I've warmed up to him after watching waaaaay too much tape.) Pros, he's tall/long (6'10" with a 7' wingspan), pretty athletic, and his release point on the jumper is so high that it's almost impossible to block it. He already has an effective slide step which will serve him well shooting treys at the next level. His jab step is also really good. He also has a good slashing game. Defensively he uses his length effectively to collect blocks and hunt the passing lanes. So, why is there a chance that he slides to the end of the first?

Well, his production just doesn't match the physicals (13/6/2, while shooting 34% from the trey), and for all the length/quickness/hops, his size is a big problem. He weighs in at 185-195, so his drive game won't work at the next level until he adds weight. While he looks like he has bigger wrists and broader shoulders than his older brother, Jalen McDaniels is still around 210 at the age of 22. For Jaden to effectively finish through contact he's going to need to get to 235-245, which is a long way off for him.

Other cons, his jab step is good enough that it leads to a lot of long twos as he knows he can create space for himself anywhere on the floor. A well placed jab step two is a great tool to have in the bucket, but not if you're overusing it. He's also a lot more likely to hit his ceiling on a veteran team, there are enough red flags that teams in the top 20 might prefer to have higher floor guys like Saddiq Bey, Ty Terry, Kira Lewis, or Jalen Smith than McDaniels, because he might be on his second contract before he really taps into his promise. But if he can play at 235-240 (without losing any athleticism), he might be the ideal third wing to play with Tatum and Brown (if his jumper falls more consistently).

Dark Horses (aka possible picks at #46)

Jay Scrubb – Some Junior College That You've Never Heard Of
It's tough to get a read on Scrubb. It's like watching Zion in high school, the opposition is just so completely overmatched physically that he gets to the cup at will. He's got great size at 6'6" 220 with major hops. He shot pretty well from the three point line at the JuCo level, the release looks a touch slow from what little tape I could find of it (because, seriously, the other JuCo players look like YMCA players facing an NBA player in comparison). But there looks like there's so much potential there that I will be unshocked if Boston takes him at #30.

Immanuel Quickley – Kentucky Good size/length combo. Brad Wannamaker replacement. Projects as a better version if he hits his ceiling.

Mason Jones – Arkansas Absolutely ridiculous shooting range. Deadeye catch & shoot guy. Less than ideal size in a modern wing, and his shooting off the bounce can be streaky. He also seriously needs to improve the D. But a possible 3&D bench scorer at the next level.
 

benhogan

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Looking at guys projected in the 21-50 range.

Cassius Stanley – Duke Pros, great shooter and transition scorer with good size (6'6") and serious hops. Cons, terrible length (also 6'6") and needs some body work (he's 185-190). He has a real future as an NBA bench scorer.

Josh Green – Arizona Pros, great size/length combination (6'6" 205 with a 6'10" wingspan), and athleticism. Very aggressive defender that hunts the passing lanes well. Cons, he's one of those If you could fix the jumper players that's going to test Jay Larranaga's patience.

Tyler Bey – Colorado Looks like Shawn Marion Lite, with the same size/length combination (6’7” 220 with a seven foot wingspan). Aggressive rebounder, uses his length well to block shots and hunt the passing lanes. Cons, he also has Shawn Marion’s jumper. But much like Green if you could fix the jumper you’d have a major 3&D guy that would thrive next to Jayson and Jaylen.

Isaiah Stewart – Washington Pros, great size for a C in the pace & space era (6'9" 250 with a 7'4" wingspan). Solid as a rock and good footwork, so should be an effective screener at the next level. Great roll guy on the pick & roll. Aggressive defender/rebounder. Cons, the shooting motion needs a little work. He also fancies himself a post scorer and primary option. Which is unideal in an other guy on the floor roll. Also sells out his defense to chase offensive rebounds too often.

Desmond Bane – TCU Pros, reminds me a little of Buddy Hield. Very quick release on the jumper. Great catch & shoot guy. Cons, not at all athletic, old (he just turned 22, I think), and his foot speed is such that it might be three years before he catches up to the speed of the NBA.

Jaden McDaniels – Washington (I've warmed up to him after watching waaaaay too much tape.) Pros, he's tall/long (6'10" with a 7' wingspan), pretty athletic, and his release point on the jumper is so high that it's almost impossible to block it. He already has an effective slide step which will serve him well shooting treys at the next level. His jab step is also really good. He also has a good slashing game. Defensively he uses his length effectively to collect blocks and hunt the passing lanes. So, why is there a chance that he slides to the end of the first?

Well, his production just doesn't match the physicals (13/6/2, while shooting 34% from the trey), and for all the length/quickness/hops, his size is a big problem. He weighs in at 185-195, so his drive game won't work at the next level until he adds weight. While he looks like he has bigger wrists and broader shoulders than his older brother, Jalen McDaniels is still around 210 at the age of 22. For Jaden to effectively finish through contact he's going to need to get to 235-245, which is a long way off for him.

Other cons, his jab step is good enough that it leads to a lot of long twos as he knows he can create space for himself anywhere on the floor. A well placed jab step two is a great tool to have in the bucket, but not if you're overusing it. He's also a lot more likely to hit his ceiling on a veteran team, there are enough red flags that teams in the top 20 might prefer to have higher floor guys like Saddiq Bey, Ty Terry, Kira Lewis, or Jalen Smith than McDaniels, because he might be on his second contract before he really taps into his promise. But if he can play at 235-240 (without losing any athleticism), he might be the ideal third wing to play with Tatum and Brown (if his jumper falls more consistently).

Dark Horses (aka possible picks at #46)

Jay Scrubb – Some Junior College That You've Never Heard Of
It's tough to get a read on Scrubb. It's like watching Zion in high school, the opposition is just so completely overmatched physically that he gets to the cup at will. He's got great size at 6'6" 220 with major hops. He shot pretty well from the three point line at the JuCo level, the release looks a touch slow from what little tape I could find of it (because, seriously, the other JuCo players look like YMCA players facing an NBA player in comparison). But there looks like there's so much potential there that I will be unshocked if Boston takes him at #30.

Immanuel Quickley – Kentucky Good size/length combo. Brad Wannamaker replacement. Projects as a better version if he hits his ceiling.

Mason Jones – Arkansas Absolutely ridiculous shooting range. Deadeye catch & shoot guy. Less than ideal size in a modern wing, and his shooting off the bounce can be streaky. He also seriously needs to improve the D. But a possible 3&D bench scorer at the next level.
In the 20-50 range, absolutely would love to see Danny land Jalen Smith.

A full 2yrs younger than Toppin with better defense

http://www.tankathon.com/players/jalen-smith
 

nighthob

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I don't think there's a chance that Smith lasts that long. His floor's too high.

Also, with regards to Scrubb I should have made the caveat presuming the reported size tells out. He was listed at 6'3" coming out of high school, and JuCo heights are so flaky that he could measure out at 6'4" and I wouldn't be the least surprised.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Isaiah Joe announces he’s leaving school due to the uncertainty of a season and entering the draft. This is such a smart move for him as he’ll either be a late 2nd rounder or an undrafted FA with an NBA contract in an organization rather than get lost possibly missing a year with nothing to do and no contract. I like him to make it in this league as he gains strength similar to a PJ Dozier.....and Joe is already an NBA-level shooter.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Isaiah Joe announces he’s leaving school due to the uncertainty of a season and entering the draft. This is such a smart move for him as he’ll either be a late 2nd rounder or an undrafted FA with an NBA contract in an organization rather than get lost possibly missing a year with nothing to do and no contract. I like him to make it in this league as he gains strength similar to a PJ Dozier.....and Joe is already an NBA-level shooter.
Oh good, I was shocked when he initially withdrew from the draft. Injuries hampered him a bit and he didn’t quite shoot it like he did last year, but he’s a first round talent IMO.

Re: Quickley, I typically don’t think it’s a good use of assets to use first rounders on back up PG when the Wannamakers of the world are so cheap, but this is a decent draft to do it. I’d still prefer to take shots on wings. Pat Williams and Precious can maybe grow to defend Giannis/Siakam/Bam in the conference. And the aforementioned Isaiah Stewart is big and strong enough to man up Embiid.

Nighthob- I like Bane a lot for the Bucks pick. Shooting, smarts and grown-man strength. Seems like an Ainge type guy.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Also, Draft Twitter is obsessed with a young kid named Aleksej Pokusevski who plays in the Greek second league. Apparently a 7 footer with legit guard skills, but the dude looks like Austin Daye after a hunger strike. I just can’t imagine a guy with his body type becoming a successful NBA player.

33438

33439

Unless steroids. Lots and lots of steroids.
 

JCizzle

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Also, Draft Twitter is obsessed with a young kid named Aleksej Pokusevski who plays in the Greek second league. Apparently a 7 footer with legit guard skills, but the dude looks like Austin Daye after a hunger strike. I just can’t imagine a guy with his body type becoming a successful NBA player.
...
Unless steroids. Lots and lots of steroids.
A tall, skinny player from a Greek league with guard skills putting on a ton of muscle??? :cool:

 

nighthob

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Giannis had better size/length/athleticism at the same age. On the other hand if Boston’s drafting 14 I’ll be rooting for the Spurs to draft Aleksej Pokusevski at #12.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Yeah, see my comment at the bottom of the post, re Giannis.

Seriously though, I think the Giannas Greek Second League thing is impacting some people’s view of this kid. I’ve seen multiple people with him top 5, saying his skills give him a low floor, but Giannis (and Porzingis, another skinny-guy comp) had a better frame to bulk up with. His shoulders are so narrow. For example, Isaiah Joe, mentioned above, was rail thin last year, but had pretty broad shoulders so you could at least see him packing on some size.
 
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nighthob

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Yeah, I always look at wrists and shoulders, so I’m skeptical of Pokusevski in the lottery, but I do hope the Spurs take him. Well, more precisely I hope Memphis gets the fourth pick, but that’s another story. I also hope the T’wolves don’t land top 5.
 

nighthob

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I just ran the Tankathon simulator and Memphis landed Isaac Okoro fourth. I’ll take it.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Yeah, see my comment at the bottom of the post, re Giannis.

Seriously though, I think the Giannas Greek Second League thing is impacting some people’s view of this kid. I’ve seen multiple people with him top 5, saying his skills give him a low floor, but Giannis (and Porzingis, another skinny-guy comp) had a better frame to bulk up with. His shoulders are so narrow. For example, Isaiah Joe, mentioned above, was rail thin last year, but had pretty broad shoulders so you could at least see him packing on some size.
Yeah, I always look at wrists and shoulders, so I’m skeptical of Pokusevski in the lottery, but I do hope the Spurs take him. Well, more precisely I hope Memphis gets the fourth pick, but that’s another story. I also hope the T’wolves don’t land top 5.
I can't find the quote right now but I remember Ainge having some pretty harsh words for Dragan Bender's body in the run-up to the Jaylen draft. If he can't project NBA strength onto a young player, he won't be interested.