2020 Free Agency Game Thread

Cotillion

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Jun 11, 2019
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Man, I need to get with the new QB environment because I don’t like any of these deals.
Need to stop thinking in absolute dollars and think in terms of % of cap. some of these are still bd on those terms. But “competent” qb play is pretty damn expensive.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Two free agency thoughts. You rarely win in the NFL by playing a large number of players who are being paid what they are worth. I think that's the important thing to keep in mind when all these deals come across. Every team is paying players more or the amount that they are worth and every team needs a certain number of them, but that really isn't where the action is. Trent Brown and Patrick Mahomes (at least for now) is where the action truly is.

I almost think we're entering an era where it will be hard to win with a quarter back who is not underpaid. The numbers are so silly at this point.

Anyway, the second point is that the Patriots are one day into the free tampering period and already have accumulated three third-fourth level comp picks. Some of those will be netted out with their own signings. But in addition to the fact that you get the picks I think comp picks are a very good yardstick for how a team has managed itself. You get comp picks because you got good value out of players who then went on to be highly paid by other teams.

I realize that these are not earth shaking points. Maybe they even verge on the banal. And certainly when you have enough money to flash around you can definitely improve and I expect the Dolphins for example to be serious contenders this year. Still, it's important to keep perspective. Championships are not generally won on the first day of free agency. They are won in quiet trades that scroll by on the bottom of the screen while everyone is talking about the next big draft pick -- like getting a $15 million value player like Trent Brown when the team that had him picks up a player that makes him redundant.
 

kenneycb

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Indy has about $23M in cap space remaining after that. Brisset has a cap hit of $21M and a dead cap of $12.5M, so that could be an easy way to free up $8.5M.
 

BigSoxFan

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Looks like Andrew Luck made Brissett a ton of money. Good for him. Colts clearly not sold on Jacoby as longterm answer.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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Two free agency thoughts. You rarely win in the NFL by playing a large number of players who are being paid what they are worth. I think that's the important thing to keep in mind when all these deals come across. Every team is paying players more or the amount that they are worth and every team needs a certain number of them, but that really isn't where the action is. Trent Brown and Patrick Mahomes (at least for now) is where the action truly is.

I almost think we're entering an era where it will be hard to win with a quarter back who is not underpaid. The numbers are so silly at this point.

Anyway, the second point is that the Patriots are one day into the free tampering period and already have accumulated three third-fourth level comp picks. Some of those will be netted out with their own signings. But in addition to the fact that you get the picks I think comp picks are a very good yardstick for how a team has managed itself. You get comp picks because you got good value out of players who then went on to be highly paid by other teams.

I realize that these are not earth shaking points. Maybe they even verge on the banal. And certainly when you have enough money to flash around you can definitely improve and I expect the Dolphins for example to be serious contenders this year. Still, it's important to keep perspective. Championships are not generally won on the first day of free agency. They are won in quiet trades that scroll by on the bottom of the screen while everyone is talking about the next big draft pick -- like getting a $15 million value player like Trent Brown when the team that had him picks up a player that makes him redundant.
I am fully on board with DDB's thoughts and would like to subscribe to his newsletter. Putting Brady aside, almost all of the teams that have been consistently successful over the last few years have either i) a top paid QB who actually plays like one (Brees, Rogers, Wilson) or a guy outperforming a rookie deal, sometimes vastly outperforming (Mahomes, Dak, Lamar (although let's see if he can hold up)).

The guys in that vast middle-Stafford, Tannehill (Dolphins contract), Flacco, even Derek Carr, who I like generally-they are taking up a big chunk of cap space, but are not really adding enough value to push a team over the top. I'm perfectly happy with the Pats staying out of that group, even if it means a down year. Mahomes is a special case, because I think he is at the top of the QB list right now, but it will be interesting to see how it impacts their teams now that Wentz and Goff have gotten paid, I dont think either adds enough value to make up for the cap hits.

I think Cam Newton, unless he is willing to take a deal for short money, is the odd man out here. I picture it ending up something like this

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNhbrIYGetc
 

tims4wins

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Two free agency thoughts. You rarely win in the NFL by playing a large number of players who are being paid what they are worth. I think that's the important thing to keep in mind when all these deals come across. Every team is paying players more or the amount that they are worth and every team needs a certain number of them, but that really isn't where the action is. Trent Brown and Patrick Mahomes (at least for now) is where the action truly is.

I almost think we're entering an era where it will be hard to win with a quarter back who is not underpaid. The numbers are so silly at this point.

Anyway, the second point is that the Patriots are one day into the free tampering period and already have accumulated three third-fourth level comp picks. Some of those will be netted out with their own signings. But in addition to the fact that you get the picks I think comp picks are a very good yardstick for how a team has managed itself. You get comp picks because you got good value out of players who then went on to be highly paid by other teams.

I realize that these are not earth shaking points. Maybe they even verge on the banal. And certainly when you have enough money to flash around you can definitely improve and I expect the Dolphins for example to be serious contenders this year. Still, it's important to keep perspective. Championships are not generally won on the first day of free agency. They are won in quiet trades that scroll by on the bottom of the screen while everyone is talking about the next big draft pick -- like getting a $15 million value player like Trent Brown when the team that had him picks up a player that makes him redundant.
Going to quote this again because it is a great point, and one that hits home with regard to Jamie Collins.

Collins was drafted in the 2nd round in 2013 (#52 overall). He was a small school prospect and one one necessarily "destined" for stardom (barely played as a rookie). He made roughly $3.5M with the Pats through the trade in 2016, and then another $3M this year. The Pats paid him roughly $6.5M for 4.5 years of mostly excellent production (I know he didn't play a ton his rookie year).

Meanwhile he played 2.5 years in Cleveland and earned about $27.5M for those 2 years. He has now signed a 3 year deal in Detroit worth $30M. So that comes to $57.5M over 5.5 years, vs. $6.5M over 4.5 years in NE.

If that doesn't encapsulate why the Pats have been so good at roster management, I don't know what does.
 

tims4wins

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So the Lions now have Flowers, Harmon, Shelton, and Collins, right? Any other ex-Pats?

Edit: Dola on offense...

Justin Coleman...

Rashaan Melvin (cup of coffee)...

Tavon Wilson...
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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All these guys heading off the roster, and the Patriots would consider Cam Newton? I'm skeptical
Yeah, no, I completely agree. I think it's Stidham and Cody Kessler or some other previous backup that won't cost too much.

I think the more accurate way to say what I posted would be something like: If Cam is going to start in the NFL, it looks as though it will have to be the Patriots, Dolphins or Chargers.
 

RedOctober3829

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All these guys heading off the roster, and the Patriots would consider Cam Newton? I'm skeptical
I mean didn't everyone expect KVN and most likely Collins to leave for paydays? Shelton I'm not too surprised either. The surprise was the Harmon trade, but they needed to create cap space. If they get Newton, they'll have a fighting chance to compete for a playoff spot. The way they'd get him is if he gets released and he comes to NE for a 1 year, low-cost prove it deal.
 

E5 Yaz

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The way they'd get him is if he gets released and he comes to NE for a 1 year, low-cost prove it deal.
I suppose, but if the choice is between trying to work in a vet for a season and having them learn McD's system, or just letting Stidham/Kessler/draftpick have a season ... i'd take the second route.

A fighting chance to compete for a playoff spot doesn't seem that much of a goal
 

jsinger121

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I suppose, but if the choice is between trying to work in a vet for a season and having them learn McD's system, or just letting Stidham/Kessler/draftpick have a season ... i'd take the second route.

A fighting chance to compete for a playoff spot doesn't seem that much of a goal
Agreed. This team is about Super Bowl titles and getting to that next one. Now that Brady is gone they need to find out now if Stidham can be the guy not sign someone like Cam Newton whose is injury prone and probably towards the end of the road.
 

RedOctober3829

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I suppose, but if the choice is between trying to work in a vet for a season and having them learn McD's system, or just letting Stidham/Kessler/draftpick have a season ... i'd take the second route.

A fighting chance to compete for a playoff spot doesn't seem that much of a goal
If you're looking at just 2020, sure. But if they play it right they'll have a decent team and over $100 million to spend this time next year. If Newton doesn't check out physically, then sure go with Stidham. I have no problem with that. But if Newton's foot is good to go, he's only 30 years old. He fits what McDaniels wants to do post-Brady and that will involve having the QB be more mobile. He immediately improves them at the goal line which has been a big issue the last couple years.
 

DourDoerr

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I suppose, but if the choice is between trying to work in a vet for a season and having them learn McD's system, or just letting Stidham/Kessler/draftpick have a season ... i'd take the second route.

A fighting chance to compete for a playoff spot doesn't seem that much of a goal
I thought the same of Newton before but now I'm not so sure - if he'd sign a very team-friendly deal. His career completion of 59.6% is close to Andrew Luck's 60.8% (although, to be fair, it's also close to Blake Bortles - 59.3%) and I've always liked Luck. The interesting thing to me is that Cam posted a career high completion percentage, 67.9%, in 2018 which dwarfed his previous high of 61.7 in 2013. I'm guessing McCaffrey might have been a good-sized factor in the uptick and McC's skillset plays directly into the strength of McD's current offense. Perhaps there's some room for a mid-late career renaissance - especially with the wind of the GOAT HC and a top notch OC at your back. Cam's market is shaping up nicely for the Pats too. I'm liking the idea a lot more than a did a few days ago (although I may still be dazed by TB's departure). More time to evaluate Stidham too.
 
Don't think I've seen it posted here, but Dante Fowler is going the Falcons - the EDGE signing they desperately needed:
He worked with Dan Quinn in college at Florida, FWIW.
 

DanoooME

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Slay gets 3 yrs/$50M with $30M guaranteed. I was disappointed the Seahawks didn't reunite him with Diggs until I heard that price tag.