2020 Dolphins: Aloha

sodenj5

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There is a .001 percent chance of Miami trading from 5 to 3 to get a tackle. This is likely either Miami throwing more smoke or Detroit leaking this info so that other teams that are interested might trade up. I’m guessing the latter.

Detroit likely overplayed their hand and the third pick turns out isn’t nearly as valuable as they thought it was going to be. So now they’re trying to drum up some last minute trade interest. But when Detroit, Washington, Arizona, Carolina, and Cleveland have all been rumored to be interested in trading down in some capacity, teams are likely less interested in paying that premium on pick 3, when they can get OT2 or OT3 at 8 with Arizona’s pick.

Edit: trading from 18 to 3 is far more believable. Costly, however if they feel strongly that Wills or whatever tackle they have rated highest is worth potentially a second and next year’s first over someone like Austin Jackson or Josh Jones, I see that a plausible. 5 and 3 sounds more like something they would do vs 3 and 18.
 
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pdaj

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Confession: I haven't gotten any work done this week. Trust me, I've tried; it just isn't happening. Not until Tua's wearing a Dolphins uniform.

If Miami can somehow secure the 3rd overall pick without giving up the 5th (18, 26, and 39?), I'm all for it. Doing so would all but guarantee that their franchise QB is secured + they net one of the top 2 OT in the draft. Yes, please.

Sure, betting that Tua slides to 5 and then trading up from 18 to grab a top 4 OT is cheaper, but it also carries a lot more risk.

I doubt a deal gets done until just prior or during the draft. Teams will keep cards close to their vest until then, as to not give up any more assets than necessary.

I'm tempted to go to bed right now and set my alarm for tomorrow (8 PM).
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Confession: I haven't gotten any work done this week. Trust me, I've tried; it just isn't happening. Not until Tua's wearing a Dolphins uniform.

If Miami can somehow secure the 3rd overall pick without giving up the 5th (18, 26, and 39?), I'm all for it. Doing so would all but guarantee that their franchise QB is secured + they net one of the top 2 OT in the draft. Yes, please.

Sure, betting that Tua slides to 5 and then trading up from 18 to grab a top 4 OT is cheaper, but it also carries a lot more risk.

I doubt a deal gets done until just prior or during the draft. Teams will keep cards close to their vest until then, as to not give up any more assets than necessary.

I'm tempted to go to bed right now and set my alarm for tomorrow (8 PM).
Wow. I’m admittedly not a big college fan so didn’t see him play much, but two firsts and a second for Tua? He’s legit that ‘can’t miss’? Seems like a ton.
 

Clears Cleaver

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I'm guessing Grier was doing the same mock drafts I was....basically if you take Tua then best you get is a developmental tackle and safety or RB in round 1. And Miami NEEDS a tackle and a QB just as much. The RB is a commodity and there are plenty of safeties available in rounds 2-4.
 

Cellar-Door

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Wow. I’m admittedly not a big college fan so didn’t see him play much, but two firsts and a second for Tua? He’s legit that ‘can’t miss’? Seems like a ton.
If he hadn't been injured sure. He's one of the best college passers of all-time, he has all the tools to be an elite QB..... if he is healthy and can stay that way
 

sodenj5

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Was he injured?
Is this serious? Yes. He dislocated his hip in a game this season and has literally been all people talk about leading up to the draft. Without the hip injury he’s possibly the 1 overall.

It is entirely possible that Miami is trying to flex their draft capital to keep the Chargers or another team at bay. If they pose the threat of moving up to 3, then maybe LA decides to hold tight, and Miami gets Tua at 5 and keeps their picks, which could be their end game.

I would be for trading up into the top 10 to secure a tackle, but for me, everything centers around Tua. Secure the franchise QB and then move forward from there, whether that’s a top 10 pick for a tackle, or staying put and going with a lower tier tackle and a safety or RB in the back of round 1.
 

kelpapa

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Is this serious? Yes. He dislocated his hip in a game this season and has literally been all people talk about leading up to the draft. Without the hip injury he’s possibly the 1 overall.
I think that was his point.
 

pdaj

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Fortunately, Miami has the firepower to dictate just about anything that happens in the Top 3-5 selections. If you're the LAC or a sleeper team trying to jump ahead of MIA for Tua, there's no way it's happening without the Dolphins getting a crack at besting the offer. I think the Dolphins would prefer to see everyone -- basically the Lions and Giants -- play nice and stand pat; but if that's not the case, I think they'll make a move up. They may get better value skyrocketing up from 18, as opposed to giving up a top 40-60 asset to facilitate a skip and a jump up from 5 to 3.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think that was his point.
I don't think it was. He was saying he didn't watch CFB and didn't know if he was can't miss. If Tua was healthy to be honest a mid-1st a late 1st and a 2nd wouldn't get you into position for him it would take a top 10 pick at least 1 more 1st and a 2nd, probably 3 1sts.
There are reasons to downgrade Tua for his injury, but without it I think he's the #1 pick over Burrow on almost every board. Prior to the injury he was having the best career in CFB history for a QB, Burrow caught him on one amazing year and Tua's health.
 

pdaj

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I don't think it was. He was saying he didn't watch CFB and didn't know if he was can't miss. If Tua was healthy to be honest a mid-1st a late 1st and a 2nd wouldn't get you into position for him it would take a top 10 pick at least 1 more 1st and a 2nd, probably 3 1sts.
There are reasons to downgrade Tua for his injury, but without it I think he's the #1 pick over Burrow on almost every board. Prior to the injury he was having the best career in CFB history for a QB, Burrow caught him on one amazing year and Tua's health.
I interpreted PP's post the same way. I think the question was genuine.

As you mentioned, Miami has lucked into this situation. They were "out-tanked" by Cincinnati (which, for whatever reason, received 0 media flack), and Flores proved that solid coaching will sabotage any FO effort to land the top pick, as long as so many shitty coaches remain in the league. Yet, due to the fortunate circumstances of Burrow's rise, Tua's injury, Chase's dominance, and the NYG/Lions not considering QB, Miami could still land the best player in the draft, when it's all said and done. The risk is real, but it's worth it, IMO.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I don't think it was. He was saying he didn't watch CFB and didn't know if he was can't miss. If Tua was healthy to be honest a mid-1st a late 1st and a 2nd wouldn't get you into position for him it would take a top 10 pick at least 1 more 1st and a 2nd, probably 3 1sts.
There are reasons to downgrade Tua for his injury, but without it I think he's the #1 pick over Burrow on almost every board. Prior to the injury he was having the best career in CFB history for a QB, Burrow caught him on one amazing year and Tua's health.
It was my point, in a way.

I didn't need to watch every snap he took to get a feel for him; and the consensus I'm reading is that he's not the guy you're making him out to be, i.e. best college QB ever. Beyond that, he did in fact get hurt, multiple times; and no one can give him a physical - what he might fetch if he didn't have an injury history is pretty irrelevant.

I'm not asking or debating whether he will be a good pro if he stays healthy, that's really something that brings in a lot of other factors. I'm asking if he's really worth 3 firsts or even 2 and a second; you and others are holding that he is, while I'm not seeing that elsewhere. Even in this thread, we've seen the ITP guys break his game down and question it. Anyway, it was a question with no other intentions.
 

pdaj

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Miami could likely likely move up from 5 to 3 for Tua, using their 2nd round pick (39th) as ammo. So, let's assume that they do that. This would leave them with the 18th and 26th picks in the 1st round. Now, let's say, as it's been reported, that Miami would also prefer to land one of the top OT in the draft. They could move up from 18 to 8 or 9, which could very well cost them the 26th pick. Thus, they'd essentially end up with the 3rd and 8th or 9th picks overall for the 5th, 18th, 26th, and 39th.

If that's the case, why not just trade up from 18 to 3, for the same cost? Doing so, does a few things:

1) Assures that you're not jumped for Tua, similar to the first scenario.

2) The 5th then gives you more options. You could draft a defensive stud like Simmons or secure one of the top 2 OT in the draft. You could also choose to trade down, re-acquire draft assets, and grab a player you covet a little further down.

As you can see, it really isn't giving up three 1's and a 2 for Tua; it's giving up two 1's and a 2nd for the opportunity to draft your franchise QB and OT.
 

Cellar-Door

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It was my point, in a way.

I didn't need to watch every snap he took to get a feel for him; and the consensus I'm reading is that he's not the guy you're making him out to be, i.e. best college QB ever. Beyond that, he did in fact get hurt, multiple times; and no one can give him a physical - what he might fetch if he didn't have an injury history is pretty irrelevant.

I'm not asking or debating whether he will be a good pro if he stays healthy, that's really something that brings in a lot of other factors. I'm asking if he's really worth 3 firsts or even 2 and a second; you and others are holding that he is, while I'm not seeing that elsewhere. Even in this thread, we've seen the ITP guys break his game down and question it. Anyway, it was a question with no other intentions.
Oh in that case... it's borderline whether he's worth 2 mid-late 1sts and a 2nd, he's an exceptional prospect with a very scary injury history.

He played in the best conference in college and finished his career with the highest Passer Efficiency in DI history (by more than the difference between 2nd and 18th), highest AYPA in DI history by the difference between 2nd and 25th), can't find the full list but his TD% is absurd 12.7 (closest is 10.7 I think?) There is a very good case that he is the best college QB ever, and people were certainly talking about him as one of the best prospects in years, the whole Tank for Tua thing happened starting pretty early almost 2 years ago. If this were a lesser injury, or a year where you could do more research I think two (not top 10) 1sts and a 2nd is a no-brainer, given the nature of the hip injury, you can probably get him for less.


Edit- obviously every prospect gets picked apart come draft time, but PFF for example has him as the #2 prospect on their big board even with the injury, and I see similar evaluations from most of the people I trust. Basically, if he's healthy he's as close to a can't miss franchise QB as you can get given his accuracy and pocket presence.
 
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sodenj5

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Oh in that case... it's borderline whether he's worth 2 mid-late 1sts and a 2nd, he's an exceptional prospect with a very scary injury history.

He played in the best conference in college and finished his career with the highest Passer Efficiency in DI history (by more than the difference between 2nd and 18th), highest AYPA in DI history by the difference between 2nd and 25th), can't find the full list but his TD% is absurd 12.7 (closest is 10.7 I think?) There is a very good case that he is the best college QB ever, and people were certainly talking about him as one of the best prospects in years, the whole Tank for Tua thing happened starting pretty early almost 2 years ago. If this were a lesser injury, or a year where you could do more research I think two (not top 10) 1sts and a 2nd is a no-brainer, given the nature of the hip injury, you can probably get him for less.


Edit- obviously every prospect gets picked apart come draft time, but PFF for example has him as the #2 prospect on their big board even with the injury, and I see similar evaluations from most of the people I trust. Basically, if he's healthy he's as close to a can't miss franchise QB as you can get given his accuracy and pocket presence.
The argument against Tua is can he stay healthy, and is he really one of the best college QBs of all time or was he surrounded by elite, elite talent and he was a very good point guard on offense?

We can go back and forth, but Andrew Luck was an ox that got hurt repeatedly in the NFL and retired early and Drew Brees is an undersized QB that had a career threatening injury and has been one of the most productive and durable QBs in league history since. All of that is to say that there isn’t an answer.

Tua’s injuries are largely a product of him trying to extend plays. Can he be coached to protect himself and take the check down more often? I would hope so.

The other half of that question, every QB is a product of their environment. Yes, he had elite weapons at Alabama, but he executes at a very high level. He most frequently get comped to Drew Brees, and I think that makes a ton of sense. I think Tua is a better thrower of the ball than Burrow. I think if Tua finishes the season healthy, there’s a high possibility that he’s going to Cincy and we’re talking about Burrow in this thread.
 

sodenj5

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TUUUUUAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
 

rymflaherty

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My brain can’t comprehend the series of events that led to Miami with a seemingly bright future, Tua, and with all of their additional picks still.

It’s like the antithesis of what I’ve come to expect over the past decade plus.
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

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I would like to see both Tua and Flores succeed, they're easy to root for, but less so than the Patriots of course.

Maybe multiple double digit season wins but their season always ending in January in New England? I really hope Tua recovers from that injury.
 

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Whoops, wrong thread.

Edit: May as well use this space to say that I think the Dolphins made the right call. Tua is a swing for the fences pick, and his hip could still explode, but may as well roll the dice and take the upside. It's not like the Dolphins really have anything to lose.
 
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sodenj5

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Austin Jackson, OT, USC

Taking him for his youth and high upside. Not a finished project, but has rare athleticism. Donated bone marrow to his sister, said that he didn’t feel right until the end of the football season.

Probably the best of the rest of the tackles.
 

Clears Cleaver

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I love that Jackson is a kid...building a base for '21-'25 and beyond. and I think they'll get a really good player at 26, too. Mckinney, Chaisson, Murray, Ruiz...hope that Love and another CB go before them
 

sodenj5

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Miami goes with a surprise after trading down. Noah Igbinoghene, CB, Auburn

Likely going to start for Miami at nickel. Flores has himself some major man-to-man corners in the secondary now.

Day two, almost all of the RBs and all of safeties on the board. I expect Miami to go RB, S in round 2.

Swift or Dobbins
Delpit or Davis
 

SMU_Sox

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Noah I going made me some money. I had Auburn players over +1.5 at myboookie.ag so that saved my bacon. I actually liked him as potentia first round super high ceiling developmental guy. He plays ST. He is a leader. Really good pick. Austin Jackson is about as high character and high ceiling as you can get. I am not as high on him as others but I can see the flashes of dominance. He's young - you want to bet on someone like that. You guys killed it today. You swung at 3 risky picks for various reasons but each has the chance to be either best or top 1-3 in the class at their position including QB so that to me is a hit. If the Dolphins can develop these guys we as Patriots fans are in for a headache 2x a year. If you guys get Swift or Dobbins tomorrow that would be the icing on the cake.
 

sodenj5

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Noah I going made me some money. I had Auburn players over +1.5 at myboookie.ag so that saved my bacon. I actually liked him as potentia first round super high ceiling developmental guy. He plays ST. He is a leader. Really good pick. Austin Jackson is about as high character and high ceiling as you can get. I am not as high on him as others but I can see the flashes of dominance. He's young - you want to bet on someone like that. You guys killed it today. You swung at 3 risky picks for various reasons but each has the chance to be either best or top 1-3 in the class at their position including QB so that to me is a hit. If the Dolphins can develop these guys we as Patriots fans are in for a headache 2x a year. If you guys get Swift or Dobbins tomorrow that would be the icing on the cake.
Well summarized. The thing giving me the most optimism is Flores has already shown he can cultivate talent. He took dudes off the street and had them playing far better than they had any business doing.

It’s one thing to say they took a high upside pick with Noah I., it’s completely different when you realize he had undrafted Nik Needham playing out of his mind last year.

Austin Jackson is still just 20. The guy clearly needs work, but if you can’t get one of the top 4 OTs, get someone with a huge ceiling.

The board couldn’t have broken any better for Miami for day 2. Walk away with a RB, S, and another OL, and I’m over the moon.
 

pdaj

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Once Miami drafted Tua, the rest of the night (almost) didn't matter to me. The Dolphins finally have their franchise QB 20 years after Marino retired. I couldn't be more excited.

The only thing that could have made the night better for me was if Tampa Bay hadn't (intelligently) cock-blocked Miami from trading up to grab Tristan Wirfs. San Fran only had to move down one spot and got a comparable 4th round offer (basically, a free pick), which was tough to compete with. The Dolphins tried to make it happen.

I like Austin Jackson and think that he has the ability to be really good, but players with his age and profile often don't get there until it's time for his 2nd contract (and huge pay raise). Unlike the secondary as it pertains to Igbinoghene, this regime does not have a track record of coaching up offensive linemen. So, until that happens, the jury's out for me. I am very optimistic about Jackson's work ethic and character, though; and often, that's 1/2 the battle for such a talented guy. He's started a ton of games in the PAC-12 at LT, which is never a bad thing.

I was surprised by the Igbinoghene pick, but shouldn't have been. I knew the secondary was an area that would be addressed, but I was looking more so at safety. I think this coaching staff will always prioritize the back-end of the defense, which is a smart approach. Friends whose opinions I trust love Noah and think he's going to be a beast in the slot. This is 100% a Flores pick.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is my 2nd favorite player in this draft. He's going to be so fucking good, especially in KC. But I think drafting a RB in the 1st is always a luxury selection for top teams. With the talent available in the 2nd and beyond, getting your ball carrier after Day 1 is the much more analytic approach. Swift, Dobbins, Taylor. I'd be happy with any of them.
 

sodenj5

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Still feels a bit surreal. We are living in a Post Tua Draft World now.

IMO, safety should still be a priority. Bobby McCain isn’t really the long term solution back there. If Miami is going to play a shit ton of press man Cover 1, which they are, I would love to see a true single high safety back there.

Valid point regarding the offensive line development. In fact, Miami has been terrible at cultivating O Lineman out of anything other than first rounders. Just have to hope they can work with Jackson because what he is currently isn’t very good, but what he can be is very, very good.
 

sodenj5

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Operation Protect Tua underway

Hunt is likely going to play guard for Miami. He’s Dane Brugler’s #1 rated guard in a shallow guard class. Makes sense to pull the trigger on him here with so many RBs and safeties still on the board.

Would still love to see Dobbins, but Cam Akers a definite possibility as well.
 

sodenj5

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Building up the trenches? what is going on here?
Well, when your historically bad at running the ball and stopping the run, probably not a bad idea to invest up front.

Miami owns a monopoly on the Raekwon game. Raekwon Davis is an enormous 3-4 DE/DT. Probably didn’t play to his full potential at Alabama. Definitely more of a runstuffer than pass rusher, but again, fills a need.

Can’t say I’m not a little bummed when JK Dobbins comes off the board right in front of them. Zack Moss, AJ Dillon are guys I would look out for now.
 

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Well, I said if Miami walked away with a RB, S, and OL, I’d be over the moon. I’m slightly under the moon, but they got likely the top guard in the draft and continue to fortify what was their biggest weakness in 2019, they got a beast of a DE/DT, which was again a pretty big weakness, and they got a safety. While they might not be the sexy picks, these guys are going to improve the team quite a bit.

I’ll be honest I didn’t know a lot about Brandon Jones, but after reading up on him, he seems right up their alley. Top rated safety in his recruiting class. Has the speed to play single high, but also has the ability to play man coverage in the slot and come down and tackle. Was recovering from shoulder surgery, so he broke down 4 games from all 32 nfl team’s defenses to try and give himself a mental edge. Defensive captain, played through injuries the last 2 seasons.

Miami has gotten a little unlucky with guys I really like coming off the board right in front of them. JK Dobbins and Ashtyn Davis. Miami was never going to patch all of their holes in one year. I suspect they continue to build out the OL, because there is some decent talent left there. Would also like to see a WR and RB at some point.
 

pdaj

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If you're into well-done hype videos, check out Brandon Jones' link below. According to the few Big 12 viewers I know, Miami fans are going to love this kid's energy/effort. He's an additional "Flores guy" who might remind us of another Jones, who just recently departed. If he can get coached up and improve his coverage skills (the athletic traits are reportedly a non-issue) -- and he sure seems coach-able -- he could definitely start. May take a season.


I'll preface my next comments with the following:

1. I give Flores/Grier the benefit of the doubt with all defensive selections.
2. I take no issue with with strengthening the trenches.
3. I recognize that so many high-caliber RB can be found in the later rounds.

That said, getting sniped for Dobbins at 55 by the Ravens hurt, especially when Miami has so many picks today. Are the Dolphins really going to draft 15 players?

Per the Herald, " The Dolphins had eyes on Dobbins with the 56th pick, our Barry Jackson reports, but he went just one spot earlier to the Ravens. So Miami instead took Alabama defensive lineman Raekwon Davis."

I appreciate players like Davis, but run-stuffing interior defensive linemen are a lot like RB, in that they can often be found in later rounds. In order for Raekwon to justify this spot in the draft, he's going to have to prove that he can generate pass pressure up the middle. Most scouting reports state that this area fell off for Davis after his sophomore year, and that's beyond the sack totals, an often overrated stat. Thus, Raekwon was drafted this high due to projection/potential, but if Nick Saban can't get the best out of you, who can? With strong work ethic, high motor, etc. being a staple of Flores' guys, this seems to be the one possible outlier. Aside from Tua, Raekwon will be the player I keep tabs on the most, assuming that there is an actual camp/season.

Other thoughts:

1. This seems to be a "foundation" draft for the Dolphins. BPA (always preferred), determined by MIA's specific draft criterion. The toys-for-Tua draft may come next year, following such a defensive focus this off-season.
2. It's always great to have extra draft picks. One thing BB always does is trade down and trade out of drafts in the later rounds, to accumulate more ammo the following year. It ensures that he always has extra to play with. It'll be interesting to see if the Dolphins behave similarly today.
3. Robert Hunt's moving inside to guard, right? If so, he seems like a plug-and-play Shaq Mason type.

Edit:

In case some of you haven't heard Hunt's story:

 
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sodenj5

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Lmfao Miami is going to just pummel people into oblivion. They trade up for another monster guard. Solomon Kindley from Georgia.

I don’t know what Miami’s best 5 OL is right now, but it’s very clear what they’re doing. They’re building a line of monsters and they are going to wear people out with Jordan Howard and a bunch of bullies up front.