2020 Dolphins: Aloha

pdaj

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I see this as a depth/competition signing, as Karras has experience at both C and G. I wouldn't rule out Dieter at the C position, and it's still very likely that Miami drafts added competition. I don't think Karras is an ideal fit for the Dolphins, for as was mentioned, he's not the most athletic; however, Miami's offensive line was dog shit last year, and he'll be solid. It's a 1 year deal, which is perfect.
 

Clears Cleaver

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they resigned S Adrian Colbert 1 yr, $1.75M. he was one of the FA castoffs they picked up and how I guess played OK?

the Howard signing looks perhaps less smart now given Gordon and Gurley are both available and price might have been lower. I have no idea who will be the best of that group, all three were pretty bad last year

heard something like 20-25WRs will go in the first three rounds. Really? With Parker and Williams (maybe?) what kind of WR/s do they need? Also, do they get a blocking TE?

How bored am I that I am thinking about this right now???
 

pdaj

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Melvin Gordon's been available. It seems as though he's waiting for a very, very big payout from ... somewhere? It'll be interesting to see if it eventually comes, or whether or not he needs to find a new agent. Regarding Gurley? I would have loved to see him signed for a deal similar to Howard's ... but it's hard to fault the FO for choosing amongst the options available at the time. I still really like the addition and think it's definite another RB will be added, either via FA or the draft.
 

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It looks like Gurley is a part time player now. I personally would rather spend the draft capital, which Miami has a ton of, to land a healthy, cost controlled RB without a chronic knee injury.

Agree that Miami still looks to add a RB.

Lot of smoke swirling about Burrow and Miami. People keep hinting that Miami is pretty interested, he liked a Dolphins tweet recently, and Miami has the draft capital to make it feasible.

I personally don’t see Burrow being worth 3 first rounders when you can potentially sit tight at 5 and get Tua.
 

pdaj

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I've always hated waiting for the NFL Draft, even before the league opted to make the wait even longer a number of years ago. Still, I knew this season would likely be the hardest of them all, as the wait really began at the beginning of the season, once it became clear that Miami was "cleaning house," subsequently putting the team in position to land Tua, the preseason choice for the top pick in late April. Now, to make matters even worse, we've all had to sit down and bide our time without the typical distractions. You know, other sports. So, amidst the quiet of empty stadiums, all that's left to do is ruminate on the latest draft rumors, unless you're disciplined (or bright) enough to just disconnect the WiFi. Brutal.

All that said, the pain will have been worth it if Tua's a Dolphin come April 23rd. Despite failing to fail triumphantly enough in a league with just a handful of above-average head coaches, Miami lucked into an unlikely set of circumstances. Tua's injury -- combined with the emergence of Burrow, the presence of an elite defender like Young, and the right handful of teams picking ahead of them -- has blessed the Dolphins with a second chance at securing the franchise QB.

Now, while unlikely, if some team, such as the Chargers, pays an absolute ransom to the Lions for the opportunity to draft Tua at #3, I can live with that. (Barely.) However, if the Dolphins are jumped in exchange for a reasonable cost or choose to pass on Tua if/when he's available at #5, I'll be shocked, deeply saddened, and then absolutely livid.

Perhaps I'm just drinking the Kool-Aid, but with Burrow practically unattainable, I think Miami's all-in on Tua, and years from now, we'll laugh at the pre-draft suggestions that included drafting Herbert or Love, or even trading back for additional picks. Miami's just smarter now, right? Well managed? Well-versed in the art of misdirection?

Goodness, I hope so. It's Tua or bust for me, and the NFL Draft just can't get here fast enough.
 

sodenj5

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I've always hated waiting for the NFL Draft, even before the league opted to make the wait even longer a number of years ago. Still, I knew this season would likely be the hardest of them all, as the wait really began at the beginning of the season, once it became clear that Miami was "cleaning house," subsequently putting the team in position to land Tua, the preseason choice for the top pick in late April. Now, to make matters even worse, we've all had to sit down and bide our time without the typical distractions. You know, other sports. So, amidst the quiet of empty stadiums, all that's left to do is ruminate on the latest draft rumors, unless you're disciplined (or bright) enough to just disconnect the WiFi. Brutal.

All that said, the pain will have been worth it if Tua's a Dolphin come April 23rd. Despite failing to fail triumphantly enough in a league with just a handful of above-average head coaches, Miami lucked into an unlikely set of circumstances. Tua's injury -- combined with the emergence of Burrow, the presence of an elite defender like Young, and the right handful of teams picking ahead of them -- has blessed the Dolphins with a second chance at securing the franchise QB.

Now, while unlikely, if some team, such as the Chargers, pays an absolute ransom to the Lions for the opportunity to draft Tua at #3, I can live with that. (Barely.) However, if the Dolphins are jumped in exchange for a reasonable cost or choose to pass on Tua if/when he's available at #5, I'll be shocked, deeply saddened, and then absolutely livid.

Perhaps I'm just drinking the Kool-Aid, but with Burrow practically unattainable, I think Miami's all-in on Tua, and years from now, we'll laugh at the pre-draft suggestions that included drafting Herbert or Love, or even trading back for additional picks. Miami's just smarter now, right? Well managed? Well-versed in the art of misdirection?

Goodness, I hope so. It's Tua or bust for me, and the NFL Draft just can't get here fast enough.
I’m very much in the same boat. Miami has been blessed by the football gods and may have Tua dropped squarely into their laps.

Much like you, I would be disappointed if the Chargers leap ahead of Miami for Tua, but straight up passing on Tua in favor of Herbert or Love would be extremely difficult to reconcile with.

Tua coming to Miami is a near perfect scenario. He doesn’t need to play right away. You can have Fitz start the season and give Tua as much as an entire season to get 100%. You still have two other first rounders, so you can balance sitting Tua for the future will still building the roster to be competitive now.

Bottom line is, I feel like Tua is the bestQB in the draft class, including Joe Burrow. The caveat is obviously his durability, but if you look at his body of work across three seasons at the highest level of college football, Tua is one of the best college QBs of all time. He’s smart, he throws with touch and accuracy that is almost unseen at that level, and he’s the guy that most closely resembles what Brian Flores himself described when he was asked what he is looking for in a QB.

I won’t believe Miami isn’t set on Tua until Justin Herbert is taking snaps for Miami in the regular season.
 

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Seems like Flores is taking one from the BB playbook in terms of bringing in mid-tier veterans who know his style to help infuse that culture through the ranks. BB did it in 2000 and 2001 with guys like Phifer, Pleasant, Cox, Otis, et al. Flores is doing it here with Van Noy, Roberts, Karras. I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple more.
 

Clears Cleaver

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There is almost nothing about Herbert that I have seen or read that makes me feel good about him. In fact, if someone jumps to get Tua and Miami has their three picks, I wouldn't take a QB and get two stud tackles and a DL or a safety with the three picks, then get a RB and WR or Edge. I don't love Love either. And I have no idea on Hursts. In fact, I think Fromm might be third best QB from what I have seen. If you can't get him in third or 4th round then sign Jameis for one or two years to see if there is anything there.
 

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There is almost nothing about Herbert that I have seen or read that makes me feel good about him. In fact, if someone jumps to get Tua and Miami has their three picks, I wouldn't take a QB and get two stud tackles and a DL or a safety with the three picks, then get a RB and WR or Edge. I don't love Love either. And I have no idea on Hursts. In fact, I think Fromm might be third best QB from what I have seen. If you can't get him in third or 4th round then sign Jameis for one or two years to see if there is anything there.
I think Fromm is basically Andy Dalton where he can be average to above average, and if you surround him with a spectacular cast he can lead your team to the playoffs. I would say I’m higher on him than most, but also recognize that his upside is pretty limited.

Herbert is.... big? Athletic? Seems like a smart kid? That’s all I’ve got. I don’t see him as a significant upgrade over Josh Rosen. That’s about where I stand on him.
 

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I think Fromm is basically Andy Dalton where he can be average to above average, and if you surround him with a spectacular cast he can lead your team to the playoffs. I would say I’m higher on him than most, but also recognize that his upside is pretty limited.

Herbert is.... big? Athletic? Seems like a smart kid? That’s all I’ve got. I don’t see him as a significant upgrade over Josh Rosen. That’s about where I stand on him.
Listening to the major draft talking heads and guys who tend to be pretty accurate and in-the-know and I wouldn't be surprised if Miami did not take Tua at 5. The issues with him are durability. He's a smaller QB with a significant injury history. They might take a premiere OT and trade back up for Tua who could slide all the way to the Raiders at 12. I've heard his range is more likely 9-12 than 5-8. The Fins have been tied to Herbert too. I am nowhere near as down on him than you. My own personal board has an option for either higher floor picks or some higher ceiling guys who need more work so depending on how you go he is 31st or 46th. But because he could turn into a quality starter he is going to go much higher than that. Herbert reminds me a lot of Carson Wentz but with shakier decision making and not as much touch. I think he has an even better arm and is more athletic. I am not sure the best system fit for Herbert but I'd like it if they incorporated more runs for him.
 

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Listening to the major draft talking heads and guys who tend to be pretty accurate and in-the-know and I wouldn't be surprised if Miami did not take Tua at 5. The issues with him are durability. He's a smaller QB with a significant injury history. They might take a premiere OT and trade back up for Tua who could slide all the way to the Raiders at 12. I've heard his range is more likely 9-12 than 5-8. The Fins have been tied to Herbert too. I am nowhere near as down on him than you. My own personal board has an option for either higher floor picks or some higher ceiling guys who need more work so depending on how you go he is 31st or 46th. But because he could turn into a quality starter he is going to go much higher than that. Herbert reminds me a lot of Carson Wentz but with shakier decision making and not as much touch. I think he has an even better arm and is more athletic. I am not sure the best system fit for Herbert but I'd like it if they incorporated more runs for him.
I think he best fits, ironically, in a Titans/Tannehill style of run first, playaction passing type of offense where he can make plays on the move and use his athleticism more. His legs were oddly underutilized at Oregon.

My biggest concerns are his poor accuracy, and his alleged lack of leadership intangibles. His completion percentage is misleading and padded by an insane amount of screen passes. He’s almost a complete contrast to Tua, who has elite accuracy and off the charts intangibles.
 

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Seems like Flores is taking one from the BB playbook in terms of bringing in mid-tier veterans who know his style to help infuse that culture through the ranks. BB did it in 2000 and 2001 with guys like Phifer, Pleasant, Cox, Otis, et al. Flores is doing it here with Van Noy, Roberts, Karras. I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple more.
Just to touch on the Flores and BB parallels, I think the one thing that Flores has absolutely taken from Belichick’s playbook is building the defense from the secondary in. It seems like BB has placed a premium on DBs and has been much more inclined to let front 7 players come and go throughout NE.

Miami now has Xavien Howard and Byron Jones outside, I would imagine Bobby McCain kicks back inside where he is actually a very good nickel, and Miami is very likely drafting 1 and maybe 2 safeties in the first 5 picks they have. Antoine Winfield Jr, Xavier McKinney, and Ashtyn Davis would all be targets they should be interested in.
 

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I think he best fits, ironically, in a Titans/Tannehill style of run first, playaction passing type of offense where he can make plays on the move and use his athleticism more. His legs were oddly underutilized at Oregon.

My biggest concerns are his poor accuracy, and his alleged lack of leadership intangibles. His completion percentage is misleading and padded by an insane amount of screen passes. He’s almost a complete contrast to Tua, who has elite accuracy and off the charts intangibles.
I've heard that he is a leader but it took him a few years to find his inner leadership qualities. He's a smart guy, 4.0 GPA major in biology. He didn't even think he would be the starter at Oregon. By year 3/4 he came into his own as a person. And teams liked his leadership qualities at the senior bowl. He has had one of the better pre-draft processes of the group.

I would question that Tua has elite accuracy. Of the guys who I follow and trust with accuracy: Klassen, Waldman, and Solak, 2/3 question his accuracy and only Waldman holds that in close to elite regard. I don't think he is elite there. Not to get into a huge discussion of accuracy and break down by yards, location, etc. I do think Tua has good accuracy in general.

Herbert has accuracy issues with passes 10 yards and under due to his lack of touch. Deep downfield he is aces. He also weirdly enough is a better thrower to his right than his left.

Maybe all of this anti-Tua stuff is just lying season smoke screens from the Fins so they don't have to trade up to get him but if it isn't and they really do want Herbert if I were a Fins fan I would be excited anyway because I think Herbert has the potential to be a good starting QB in the league. Like Goff, Kurt Cousins, Jimmy G, he tends to be more of a see-it throw-it kind of a QB right now and has some issues with anticipation but has also flashed there too. Like a zillion other QB prospects he is inconsistent.

Dan Orlovsky has a good video breakdown of him.
 

pdaj

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I do think that Miami had interest in trading up for Burrow, but with the combination of the cost and Burrow being a perfect fit for Cincinnati as an Ohio kid, it was never going to happen. As a result, Tua's the next guy up, and I'm not sure it's very close. Until I see otherwise, I firmly believe that the Herbert hoopla involving Miami is a fully committed smoke screen. Time will tell.

I don't think Herbert sucks. I see many of the traits/abilities mentioned in this thread and understand why people like him. I do think he has a chance to be a good NFL QB with the right coaching and necessary development.

But, IMO, Tua's at a whole 'nother level.

So, who's right? That's why they play the games!
 

pdaj

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Does Dan Marino and Jim Kelly scoring in the 14-16 range, or Lamar also registering a 13 two years ago make you feel better? Kyle Murray endured similar (but short-lived) stigma after receiving the lowest score of last year’s QB group. The fan reaction over the Wonderlic is silly. It’s equivalent to being dumbfounded at the success of someone who scored a 950-1000 on the SAT.
 
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sodenj5

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Lamar Jackson scored a 13. Pretty sure he’s doing ok.

Also I saw that his 13 was from last year, he retool the test this year and scored 18.

Either way, if it’s a piece of information that causes him to land at 5, cool. I have zero concerns. Tua learned three completely different offenses in three seasons in Alabama and seems to process football quickly and at a high level. Maybe he doesn’t start a book club with Ryan Fitzpatrick.
 

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Annual reminder that tests like the Wonderlic are garbage and have racially disparate outcomes. We’re not hiring for Boston Consulting Group. Nothing to see here. Move along.
 

Clears Cleaver

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Annual reminder that tests like the Wonderlic are garbage and have racially disparate outcomes. We’re not hiring for Boston Consulting Group. Nothing to see here. Move along.
discriminates against Samonans or residents of Hawaii? I know the test is nonsense, but my point is the guy has had months and months to prepare and scored poorly. That's weak sauce. I did not know that was last year's score, however. My concern with Tua is not his score...its the Draft Network data that shows he's a below average college quarterback in any situation but a clean pocket. As a Dolphins fan, I can assume you he will not see a clean pocket quite as often as he did at Alabama.

If you want a great deep-dive look at Tua and his personality, leadership skills, etc. I highly suggest Thursday's Move the Sticks podcast that has interviews with Tua, his parents, high school coaches, etc. then a pretty good analysis of him the Move the Sticks guys. They Love him and his character. He certainly has the "IT" factor that Grier has mentioned before, much mores than Herbert, that's for sure. I think they are taking Tua. I think the Herbert love was all a smokescreen.
 

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discriminates against Samonans or residents of Hawaii? I know the test is nonsense, but my point is the guy has had months and months to prepare and scored poorly. That's weak sauce. I did not know that was last year's score, however. My concern with Tua is not his score...its the Draft Network data that shows he's a below average college quarterback in any situation but a clean pocket. As a Dolphins fan, I can assume you he will not see a clean pocket quite as often as he did at Alabama.

If you want a great deep-dive look at Tua and his personality, leadership skills, etc. I highly suggest Thursday's Move the Sticks podcast that has interviews with Tua, his parents, high school coaches, etc. then a pretty good analysis of him the Move the Sticks guys. They Love him and his character. He certainly has the "IT" factor that Grier has mentioned before, much mores than Herbert, that's for sure. I think they are taking Tua. I think the Herbert love was all a smokescreen.
Lamar scored a 13 IIRC. He was MVP last year. Also there is NO correlation between Wonderlic and processing speed. There's no correlation between the Wonderlic and virtually anything football wise. Brady is the best and fastest processor and he scored around a 25. IQ doesn't measure football speed. Maybe he just doesn't give a shit about the test?

I did listen to the MTS podcast - it's a crucial source of information for me. Great pod too. The issue for Tua to me is that when he is under pressure he doesn't know to just let the play die - he fights to extend it and can make poor decisions. Carson Wentz had that issue. Jimmy G had similar pocket issues too. I feel the opposite as you - I think Tua is going to slide and they actually do love Herbert. Usually tomorrow or Tuesday you start to hear the leakiest of the leaks come out so we will see. PFF has done analysis that shows that how well you perform with a clean pocket is the best predictor of any of those stats for NFL success so he has that going for him. I think you can teach a guy to be a little more conservative but I think it's harder to teach a guy more calculated aggression. That also bodes well for Tua. My concern is that he's a small QB with an extensive injury history and everything I've seen and heard from Miami makes me thing they are going Herbert's direction. Like you said, could be a smokescreen though.

Aside from the draft contest I will donate $50 to the Jimmy Fund if the Fins take Tua at 5, 4, or 3. If they take him later on I'll go $25. No need to take the other side of that bet - I just like putting my money where my mouth is around this time of year and if I am wrong then cool - money goes to charity. Every little bit helps and I am wrong >50% of the time ;).

I think they go OT, Josh Jones at 18 if he is still there.

26 I have no idea - maybe a corner? Linebacker? Murray or Queen?

Curious who you Fins fans covet - I listen to a lot of Kyle Crabbs so I hear a lot of Dolphins talk.
 

sodenj5

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Lamar scored a 13 IIRC. He was MVP last year. Also there is NO correlation between Wonderlic and processing speed. There's no correlation between the Wonderlic and virtually anything football wise. Brady is the best and fastest processor and he scored around a 25. IQ doesn't measure football speed. Maybe he just doesn't give a shit about the test?

I did listen to the MTS podcast - it's a crucial source of information for me. Great pod too. The issue for Tua to me is that when he is under pressure he doesn't know to just let the play die - he fights to extend it and can make poor decisions. Carson Wentz had that issue. Jimmy G had similar pocket issues too. I feel the opposite as you - I think Tua is going to slide and they actually do love Herbert. Usually tomorrow or Tuesday you start to hear the leakiest of the leaks come out so we will see. PFF has done analysis that shows that how well you perform with a clean pocket is the best predictor of any of those stats for NFL success so he has that going for him. I think you can teach a guy to be a little more conservative but I think it's harder to teach a guy more calculated aggression. That also bodes well for Tua. My concern is that he's a small QB with an extensive injury history and everything I've seen and heard from Miami makes me thing they are going Herbert's direction. Like you said, could be a smokescreen though.

Aside from the draft contest I will donate $50 to the Jimmy Fund if the Fins take Tua at 5, 4, or 3. If they take him later on I'll go $25. No need to take the other side of that bet - I just like putting my money where my mouth is around this time of year and if I am wrong then cool - money goes to charity. Every little bit helps and I am wrong >50% of the time ;).

I think they go OT, Josh Jones at 18 if he is still there.

26 I have no idea - maybe a corner? Linebacker? Murray or Queen?

Curious who you Fins fans covet - I listen to a lot of Kyle Crabbs so I hear a lot of Dolphins talk.
18 is an interesting spot for Miami. It’s less than likely that one of the top OTs is still on the board. Jones is a bit of a reach there. I can see Miami trading back if someone like Kinlaw doesn’t end up sliding down to them.

My best guess:

5-Tua
18-BPA or trade out. Kinlaw, Josh Jones
26-Safety. McKinney, Delpit, Winfield Jr.

I think they go RB in round 2, they’ll likely have their pick of several of the top names. JK Dobbins is probably my personal favorite. Just a complete back that can be a workhorse.
 

Clears Cleaver

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I've run about 15 mock drafts and 18 always seems the toughest pick...if you take an Tua first, then you can get a safety or WR. The tackles available there are not likely day 1 starters, more like guys like Jones or Jackson.

What is more important, somewhat risky franchise QB or a higher probability franchise OT? I think you can get a high-risk franchise QB (Herbert, Love, Hurts) later but almost no chance of getting franchise OT after 10. I think Tua upside is likely worth it to Dolphins, but I also think you then trade for Williams and draft Jackson from USC, who is only 20 years old

worse case to me is taking Herbert with 5...lowest upside draft possible
 

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I've run about 15 mock drafts and 18 always seems the toughest pick...if you take an Tua first, then you can get a safety or WR. The tackles available there are not likely day 1 starters, more like guys like Jones or Jackson.

What is more important, somewhat risky franchise QB or a higher probability franchise OT? I think you can get a high-risk franchise QB (Herbert, Love, Hurts) later but almost no chance of getting franchise OT after 10. I think Tua upside is likely worth it to Dolphins, but I also think you then trade for Williams and draft Jackson from USC, who is only 20 years old

worse case to me is taking Herbert with 5...lowest upside draft possible
Seems to be reports now of Miami looking to trade up out of 18 and into the higher teens to select an OT. I guess a lot of it depends on what starts to shake down on draft night.

IMO, they can’t afford to try and get cute and go OT and then QB, especially if they want Tua. Select the QB then worry about the LT. If you traded away Laremy Tunsil only to select another LT and take whoever is left at QB, then you’ve accomplished nothing other than resetting the salary cap.

If someone jumps them for Tua, and it’s Herbert or Love, that’s a different story. One of them will likely slide into the teens where you can get them with the second first rounder.
 

pdaj

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If someone jumps them for Tua, and it’s Herbert or Love, that’s a different story. One of them will likely slide into the teens where you can get them with the second first rounder.
I think Miami's done relatively well keeping everyone guessing, which is what you want from your team's FO. With the Flores/Grier duo in charge now, they've seemed to manage to keep Ross' lips in check, which was an issue when Tannenbaum was at the helm.

Throughout this process, Detroit and the NYG have reportedly worked hard to draw interest from teams looking to trade up, but thus far, no dice. The Dolphins appear intent on not giving up any draft capital unless absolutely necessary. I doubt a deal gets done, if at all, until the clock starts.

I think Tua's the guy. He's always been.

However, if Miami gets jumped for him, they likely take the BPA (OT or defense) and target Love with 18 (or a possible trade up). Like I've said a couple times already, I just can't buy the Herbert love.

Sod', I agree with Miami going RB in the 2nd. I think there's a number of really good ones, making it easy to add another big OL or defensive pick with the 26th.

Man, Thursday can't get here fast enough.
 

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I legitimately don’t know if I’m going to be able to deal with watching the first hour or so of the draft. It’s going to be nothing but anxiety.

Part of that is also because the only prediction I’d be willing to make, what I’d stake the most money on, is that Tua is going to be drafted #3. So the question to me is whether that will be Miami, or if they’ll allow someone to jump them.
 

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Boys, I think it’s time to start getting hyped.

View: https://twitter.com/flasportsbuzz/status/1252606796767903744?s=21


If anyone listened to Flores or Grier speak when they talked about what they were looking for in a QB, this was always the road we were going down.

Flores said they want a leader, someone with the “It” factor. Someone the team will rally around and play for. Tua has that in spades, and after watching Tannehill for nearly a decade, I don’t think it’s something that you can teach.

We might be two days away from Miami not screwing this up.
 

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Boys, I think it’s time to start getting hyped.

View: https://twitter.com/flasportsbuzz/status/1252606796767903744?s=21


If anyone listened to Flores or Grier speak when they talked about what they were looking for in a QB, this was always the road we were going down.

Flores said they want a leader, someone with the “It” factor. Someone the team will rally around and play for. Tua has that in spades, and after watching Tannehill for nearly a decade, I don’t think it’s something that you can teach.

We might be two days away from Miami not screwing this up.
I love the NFL, where the argument is... "this QB isn't an alpha leader so take the guy who is" instead of "This guy isn't very good at actually playing QB and misses amost 20% of open throws, while the other guy is a really good QB with great accuracy"
 

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I love the NFL, where the argument is... "this QB isn't an alpha leader so take the guy who is" instead of "This guy isn't very good at actually playing QB and misses amost 20% of open throws, while the other guy is a really good QB with great accuracy"
I agree to an extent. IMO, Tua is the better prospect on and off the field. If he doesn’t dislocate his hip, the gulf between he and Herbert would be massive. If he doesn’t dislocate his hip, Miami is probably coughing up multiple first rounders to get him.

I made my opinion on Herbert pretty clear earlier in the thread. I just don’t see it at all with him. Some people love his upside, I don’t. I think Tua fits the modern spread offense extremely well and he will need to learn to protect himself and not extend plays until he gets killed, because that will cut his career short.
 

pdaj

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Edit: I misinterpreted Cellar's post. Updated accordingly!

Boys, I think it’s time to start getting hyped.

View: https://twitter.com/flasportsbuzz/status/1252606796767903744?s=21


If anyone listened to Flores or Grier speak when they talked about what they were looking for in a QB, this was always the road we were going down.

Flores said they want a leader, someone with the “It” factor. Someone the team will rally around and play for. Tua has that in spades, and after watching Tannehill for nearly a decade, I don’t think it’s something that you can teach.

We might be two days away from Miami not screwing this up.
The big questions now are ... will Tua slide to 5 or will Miami need to trade up to 3? And are they willing to do so?
 
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sodenj5

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Edit: I misinterpreted Cellar's post. Updated accordingly!



The big questions now are ... will Tua slide to 5 or will Miami need to trade up to 3? And are they willing to do so?
Their biggest competition is obviously LAC. They most feel somewhat comfortable they they’re leaning Herbert after their GM came out and talked about how important injury history is and the best ability is availability, etc.

To me, it seems like they are ok with either of the following scenarios:

Draft Tua at 5, trade up for OT
Tua is gone, draft OT at 5 and get Jordan Love.

My preference remains Tua and trade up for an OT, but we shall see.
 

pdaj

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Their biggest competition is obviously LAC. They most feel somewhat comfortable they they’re leaning Herbert after their GM came out and talked about how important injury history is and the best ability is availability, etc.

To me, it seems like they are ok with either of the following scenarios:

Draft Tua at 5, trade up for OT
Tua is gone, draft OT at 5 and get Jordan Love.

My preference remains Tua and trade up for an OT, but we shall see.
Miami drafting Tua at 5 and then trading up (AZ, JAX?) for a top OT would be my idea of the ideal start to this draft for Miami. At this point, the wait for Thursday has become excruciatingly difficult for me. I tend to agree that Plan B is similar to what you detailed.
 

sodenj5

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If that second scenario happens, will they draft another QB next year or wait until 2022?
Interesting to think about. I think you have Love and Rosen battle it out for QB2, and you have to give Love at least a full year, especially with this offseason likely to be very unlike any training camp or OTA period that there’s been.

I would assume they would be out of the QB market until at least the 2022 draft, but stranger things have happened. Miami is unlikely to be bad enough to get Trevor Lawrence. So would they punt on a truncated season of Love and trade up to get Justin Fields? Hard to know.
 

pdaj

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Interesting to think about. I think you have Love and Rosen battle it out for QB2, and you have to give Love at least a full year, especially with this offseason likely to be very unlike any training camp or OTA period that there’s been.

I would assume they would be out of the QB market until at least the 2022 draft, but stranger things have happened. Miami is unlikely to be bad enough to get Trevor Lawrence. So would they punt on a truncated season of Love and trade up to get Justin Fields? Hard to know.
Yeah, if Watson were to get hurt, for istance -- which has happened before -- the situation in Houston could get really ugly fast, leading to an unexpected Top 1-3 pick. That said, if MIA lands Tua, I think they'll be out of the QB game for quite a bit. At least that's the expectation.
 

sodenj5

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Well, we’re about 36 hours out, so I thought I would drop some names of personal favorites of mine I would like to see Miami draft:

Tua-obvious name for obvious reasons

Jedrick Wills or Andrew Thomas-I think Wills is the best tackle in the draft. Thomas probably has the highest floor. If Miami trades up to secure either of these guys after drafting Tua, the first round is a home run. Really any of the top 4 OTs would be great, but these are my preferences.

Ashytn Davis or Antoine Winfield Jr- Davis might be a bit of a “reach” at the back end of round 1, but he has a skill set unlike anything Miami has on their current roster. He’s a legit track star athlete that walked on at Cal and can play a true single high safety and run hash to hash. Winfield can also fill that similar role, maybe not with the same elite speed as Davis, but with better instincts, which Davis is still learning. Both of these players absolutely reek of being Brian Flores players. I do think safety is high in the list of priorities.

JK Dobbins-Miami likely will go RB in round 2, and Dobbins is my personal choice. I just feel that being the all-time leading rusher at Ohio State means something. I think playing your best in the biggest games means something. People love Swift’s versatility, but I feel like Dobbins has an extremely high floor and can be a Zeke-light type of bellcow back for Miami. I think Miami wants that identity of toughness and being able to grind teams out, especially earlier in the year when the heat and humidity are a big advantage at home.

Josh Uche- Another player that reeks of being a Brian Flores type of player. Played all over the formation for Michigan. Can set the edge, rush the passer, and run down the seam and cover. I would love to see him in this defense.
 

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By all accounts they don’t want to trade up for him. So now who’s plugged into SD?
I’m not going to claim to have great knowledge of LA’s front office, but it sounds more and more likely that they’re scared off of Tua and prefer Herbert because they highly value health. Which is probably related to LA having had some of the worst injury luck in the NFL the last few years.

Also, it’s been pretty quiet regarding a trade up. If LA and Miami were really going to have a bidding war for the 3 spot, we likely would have heard it by now. It seems there are far more teams willing to trade down than trade up right now. That combined with Tua’s hip has killed the market you would normally see in trading up for a QB.

Miami might still possibly move up to 3 just for the sake of securing the bag, but I don’t think they have to.
 

axx

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Any reason to think Detroit might stay and take a QB at 3? Would be a shocker but Stafford is getting kind of old.
 

pdaj

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Any reason to think Detroit might stay and take a QB at 3? Would be a shocker but Stafford is getting kind of old.
Not going to happen -- Bob Quinn has already stated this emphatically. Some writers in that area have speculated that the Lions initially tried to play coy with their intentions (making it seem like QB was a possibility in order to generate trade interest), but then pivoted when their current QB, Stafford, didn't appreciate the lack of public confidence. (We fans do, at times, forget that teams are managing/collaborating with people, after all.) This all mentioned, I think the question, "Why not Tua?" is a good one. And the answer explains why few organizations ever get within sniffing distance of the Patriots.

Answer: Inpatient ownership.

Matt Patricia has not been good in his 1st 2 seasons, finishing 6-10 and 3-12. He, if not he and Quinn are likely very much on the hot seat this season. Thus, they must show progress and win now. Using your 1st round pick (3rd overall) to draft a QB to either start or sit behind Stafford isn't going to help you accomplish that goal. Instead, it sets up the next HC to win, once you're replaced.

But, hey, if GM/coaches weren't on such a short leash? It'd be interesting to see Detroit trade Stafford, sign Cam to a 1-year deal, and draft Tua. Detroit would have to eat a lot of dead money to make this happen -- another real-life disincentive -- but isn't it worth landing your next franchise QB?

Regarding Miami targets, I have a bunch that I love. I'll post them tonight. As for RB, I'm a big, big fan of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and I think he'd compliment Jordan Howard perfectly. He might be the most likely to go in the 1st round, though, and with the other RB available later on, I'd rather not invest such cost into the position. If Dobbins ends up being the guy, I won't complain. He's my #2 favorite, ahead of Swift.