2020 Dolphins: Aloha

sodenj5

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View: https://twitter.com/mortreport/status/1348308843193839616?s=21


Growing smoke surrounding Deshaun Watson and Miami.

I just wanted to talk through the hypothetical. I’m against it. Yes, Watson is a star. He is a top 5 QB by nearly every measure. He is currently better than Tua might ever be.

I think if you execute this trade, it takes Tua, both firsts, and possibly both second rounders, maybe more. So Miami nets Watson, and have picks in the third round back. They still have bad skill position players. They still need WRs and RBs, regardless of who is at QB.

Deshaun Watson doesn’t change this and you’re throwing him into a situation that is equally as bad as Tua was in and as bad as he was in with Houston. You have taken a blowtorch to the rebuild. All the capital you built up after tearing down the roster and putting yourself in one of the most enviable positions in the league, and you flush it.

Maybe you take the known quantity of a star QB over everything, but I still feel the best path forward is using all that capital to surround Tua with talent and utilize those rookie deals to build a deep, competitive roster.
 

ManicCompression

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I think if you execute this trade, it takes Tua, both firsts, and possibly both second rounders, maybe more. So Miami nets Watson, and have picks in the third round back. They still have bad skill position players. They still need WRs and RBs, regardless of who is at QB.
Will it really take that much you think? There aren't many teams who have the kind of assets Miami has as well as the cap space to absorb Watson's deal. The only team who could remotely challenge a Miami offer is Jacksonville, but Watson has a no-trade clause so he doesn't have to go along with that.

I could see Tua + Hou getting their own pick back + a second rounder getting it done if it comes to it. The moment Deshaun says, "I don't want to play for you and I'll sit out until you trade me to Miami," is the moment Houston loses any kind of leverage. They can save face, but I don't think Miami will have to give up the farm for him.

As an all-pro QB, he's really the only kind of player in the NFL who could control this process.
 

swiftaw

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I think it really does come down to what the Dolphins have to give up. They are not just a QB away from being Super Bowl contenders so they have to keep picks for other pieces.
 

sodenj5

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Will it really take that much you think? There aren't many teams who have the kind of assets Miami has as well as the cap space to absorb Watson's deal. The only team who could remotely challenge a Miami offer is Jacksonville, but Watson has a no-trade clause so he doesn't have to go along with that.

I could see Tua + Hou getting their own pick back + a second rounder getting it done if it comes to it. The moment Deshaun says, "I don't want to play for you and I'll sit out until you trade me to Miami," is the moment Houston loses any kind of leverage. They can save face, but I don't think Miami will have to give up the farm for him.

As an all-pro QB, he's really the only kind of player in the NFL who could control this process.
Miami, Jax, and NYJ are probably the only three teams that Houston would seriously consider.

Miami could give them both a young QB AND a high draft pick. So that makes Miami probably the most attractive trade partner.

You make a valid point that if Watson says I’ll only waive my no trade for Miami, then Miami claws back leverage and can maybe get him for cheaper than if it was strictly an open bid. I still see multiple firsts and Tua being the bare minimum.

I think it really does come down to what the Dolphins have to give up. They are not just a QB away from being Super Bowl contenders so they have to keep picks for other pieces.
Exactly my point. Miami’s roster is not an elite QB away from being a contender right now. That draft capital goes a long way in bridging that gap.

I suppose my point is this: even if Tua only ends up being a good QB, and is never a star like Watson, you can win consistently with a good QB surrounded by good talent. I would prefer that route vs a star QB with a mediocre roster.
 
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rymflaherty

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I was playing the Watson hypothetical in my head earlier today...my starting point (for it to make sense for Miami) was along the lines of Tua, #18 and then something like giving Hou their second back and adding Miami’s second next year.
Within that scenario your giving up assets, but not sacrificing the future entirely.

I soured on the idea pretty quick however.
One of the greatest situations a team can be in now-a-days is building around a QB on a rookie deal. I take my chance with the stockpile of picks, build around Tua and if it turns out he’s not the guy, there should be a pretty good roster to try to slot someone else into.
Watson is great, but we’ve seen in Houston already, Watson being great doesn’t guarantee you anything.
 

sodenj5

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I was playing the Watson hypothetical in my head earlier today...my starting point (for it to make sense for Miami) was along the lines of Tua, #18 and then something like giving Hou their second back and adding Miami’s second next year.
Within that scenario your giving up assets, but not sacrificing the future entirely.

I soured on the idea pretty quick however.
One of the greatest situations a team can be in now-a-days is building around a QB on a rookie deal. I take my chance with the stockpile of picks, build around Tua and if it turns out he’s not the guy, there should be a pretty good roster to try to slot someone else into.
Watson is great, but we’ve seen in Houston already, Watson being great doesn’t guarantee you anything.
Exactly. Watson already being in the big money does Miami no favors. Miami having a QB, a top 3 non-QB pick, and another first rounder all on their rookie deals at the same time is insanely beneficial.

Miami loses nearly all of their flexibility to improve the roster, but they get Watson. Watson lead the league in passing yards and Houston won 4 games.

I truly hope Miami stays the path they’re on. They’ve seen it through this far.
 

Clears Cleaver

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There is no way Houston is getting a Tua, two first round picks and more for Watson. His cap hit is only $10M in 2021, but grows to $30M+ in 2022-24. so you're also giving up $20M+ in cap space in those years. If Miami did that it would be one of the worst trades in history given they have a chance to add four cheap high quality players for those three years.
 

BigSoxFan

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I was playing the Watson hypothetical in my head earlier today...my starting point (for it to make sense for Miami) was along the lines of Tua, #18 and then something like giving Hou their second back and adding Miami’s second next year.
Within that scenario your giving up assets, but not sacrificing the future entirely.

I soured on the idea pretty quick however.
One of the greatest situations a team can be in now-a-days is building around a QB on a rookie deal. I take my chance with the stockpile of picks, build around Tua and if it turns out he’s not the guy, there should be a pretty good roster to try to slot someone else into.
Watson is great, but we’ve seen in Houston already, Watson being great doesn’t guarantee you anything.
Counterpoint: You’re in a conference with Mahomes, Jackson, and Allen, all of whom are 25 or younger and have good, stable franchises and good coaches. You’re absolutely right that a QB on a rookie deal is a huge advantage but there is considerable risk with Tua whereas there isn’t with Watson. He is an elite QB. We don’t know what Tua is but there is a lot of distance in between those guys and him.

The Dolphins are in a good position either way but I think they should strongly consider Watson if he becomes available and the price isn’t outrageous.
 

sodenj5

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Counterpoint: You’re in a conference with Mahomes, Jackson, and Allen, all of whom are 25 or younger and have good, stable franchises and good coaches. You’re absolutely right that a QB on a rookie deal is a huge advantage but there is considerable risk with Tua whereas there isn’t with Watson. He is an elite QB. We don’t know what Tua is but there is a lot of distance in between those guys and him.

The Dolphins are in a good position either way but I think they should strongly consider Watson if he becomes available and the price isn’t outrageous.
The price becomes the obvious point. Can Miami get Watson for Tua, 18, and a 2nd? Sign me up.

Is it Tua, 3, a 2nd, and a first next year? Hell no. You’re absolutely right that you know Watson is a star, but I think you also know Tua isn’t a complete dud either. Like he wasn’t Josh Rosen bad, even with Mack Hollins as his WR1.
 

BigSoxFan

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The price becomes the obvious point. Can Miami get Watson for Tua, 18, and a 2nd? Sign me up.

Is it Tua, 3, a 2nd, and a first next year? Hell no. You’re absolutely right that you know Watson is a star, but I think you also know Tua isn’t a complete dud either. Like he wasn’t Josh Rosen bad, even with Mack Hollins as his WR1.
What about Tua, 18, 2021 2nd (Miami’s), and a 2022 1st?
 

rymflaherty

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That’s why keeping #3 would be a priority.
I’m sure it’s the first thing Houston would ask for, but if this ever gets to serious discussions, it doesn’t seem like they have a ton of leverage.
If you keep #3 you can be a bit more aggressive elsewhere, because you still have a trade down option with that pick. You can choose to do that, in which case giving up a 2022 1st may not be so bad if you just picked up an extra 22’ 2nd.

Again, I’d assume keep the picks, so I’m approaching it from a...well, I can at least see the logic in the deal...perspective.
 

sodenj5

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What about Tua, 18, 2021 2nd (Miami’s), and a 2022 1st?
I still think it takes more than that, but Miami keeps 3, Houston’s 2nd, and gets Watson. Hard to argue with much there.

Miami probably goes WR at 3, RB early 2, and comes away with Watson.

That’s why keeping #3 would be a priority.
I’m sure it’s the first thing Houston would ask for, but if this ever gets to serious discussions, it doesn’t seem like they have a ton of leverage.
If you keep #3 you can be a bit more aggressive elsewhere, because you still have a trade down option with that pick. You can choose to do that, in which case giving up a 2022 1st may not be so bad if you just picked up an extra 22’ 2nd.

Again, I’d assume keep the picks, so I’m approaching it from a...well, I can at least see the logic in the deal...perspective.
Hard to see Houston agreeing to a deal without Tua and 3 coming back to them. They can probably dial up the Jets and come away with 2, and a few other first and 2nd rounders.
 

Cellar-Door

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yeah, HOU isn't going to get full value for Watson, but full value for Watson is probably something like 5-6 1st round equivalents (ie 3 1sts, 2nds, controlled players etc.)
They're going to get at least the equivalent of 4 though.
If Miami is going to get the deal done it's going to take #3 and Tua plus more. I just don't see how you provide the value otherwise.
An obvious contender is the Jets, they'd pony up #2, both SEA 1sts, the Seattle 3rd and more without blinking an eye. And they can give him the coach he wants to get him to agree to the trade. Makes a lot of sense for NYJ. Would you trade two 1sts and Jamal Adams for Watson? Of course. Just because you fleeced SEA doesn't change it.
 

sodenj5

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yeah, HOU isn't going to get full value for Watson, but full value for Watson is probably something like 5-6 1st round equivalents (ie 3 1sts, 2nds, controlled players etc.)
They're going to get at least the equivalent of 4 though.
If Miami is going to get the deal done it's going to take #3 and Tua plus more. I just don't see how you provide the value otherwise.
An obvious contender is the Jets, they'd pony up #2, both SEA 1sts, the Seattle 3rd and more without blinking an eye. And they can give him the coach he wants to get him to agree to the trade. Makes a lot of sense for NYJ. Would you trade two 1sts and Jamal Adams for Watson? Of course. Just because you fleeced SEA doesn't change it.
Your point about the coach was something I was thinking about this morning. Does New York try and trade for Watson and hire Bienemy? Or hire Bienemy in an order to try and attract Watson? It’s possible and that was the coach he tried to pitch to Houston ownership.

Just read an article from Armando Salguero suggesting that as of right now, Miami’s stance on Tua hasn’t changed and most of the facts point towards both Houston wanting to retain Watson if at all possible and Miami not wanting to gut their rebuild to get him.

Also in actual news, Miami’s coaching staff will be coaching at the Senior Bowl. A great opportunity considering how much uncertainty there will be surrounding the combine and the draft process this year. Getting hands on with players for a week is a great head start on the process.
 

Cellar-Door

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Your point about the coach was something I was thinking about this morning. Does New York try and trade for Watson and hire Bienemy? Or hire Bienemy in an order to try and attract Watson? It’s possible and that was the coach he tried to pitch to Houston ownership.

Just read an article from Armando Salguero suggesting that as of right now, Miami’s stance on Tua hasn’t changed and most of the facts point towards both Houston wanting to retain Watson if at all possible and Miami not wanting to gut their rebuild to get him.

Also in actual news, Miami’s coaching staff will be coaching at the Senior Bowl. A great opportunity considering how much uncertainty there will be surrounding the combine and the draft process this year. Getting hands on with players for a week is a great head start on the process.
I have said I don't think HOU trades him, but the situation there does seem super toxic, and the Owner has made a lot of deeply irrational decisions when it came time to choose between what he should do and what Easterby wanted. (even if 70% of the Easterby stuff isn't true, McNair still should have let him go because a non-personnel "culture" guy isn't worth that trouble).

I think the Jets should hire Bienemy because he's arguably the best candidate out there. That it may help get Watson is just gravy.
 

sodenj5

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I have said I don't think HOU trades him, but the situation there does seem super toxic, and the Owner has made a lot of deeply irrational decisions when it came time to choose between what he should do and what Easterby wanted. (even if 70% of the Easterby stuff isn't true, McNair still should have let him go because a non-personnel "culture" guy isn't worth that trouble).

I think the Jets should hire Bienemy because he's arguably the best candidate out there. That it may help get Watson is just gravy.
Watson is just entering his prime and probably has 5-7 super high level years in him. Houston is screwed for 2021, but in 2022 and forward, they’ll have a normal compliment of draft picks and still have Watson.

Basically, they need to do a soft reset. Trade Watt, David Johnson (maybe an even worse trade than Tunsil) and any other aging assets, regroup, and move forward with Watson.
 

rymflaherty

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I’m pleasantly surprised about the Senior Bowl news. The last article I read indicated that even though they were picking #3rd they were still 18th in coaching priority.
Not sure if that source was wrong or everyone else refused, but either way, that’s a good opportunity for the staff.

It’s not only an advantage scouting, but it’s another chance for Flores and the staff to make a positive impression. It goes along with what wound up being my biggest takeaway from the Watson rumors - that being - a star Quarterback seems to be wishing he can come play in Miami. (Basing this off my assumption that the truth to this rumor stems from someone in Watson’s camp)
You can add that to other vets like Marvin Jones liking tweets about Tua and getting him weapons for next year and it’s just encouraging that the franchise went from laughing stock to a potential desirable destination (outside of just location) in just two years under Flores and Grier.
 

sodenj5

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I’m pleasantly surprised about the Senior Bowl news. The last article I read indicated that even though they were picking #3rd they were still 18th in coaching priority.
Not sure if that source was wrong or everyone else refused, but either way, that’s a good opportunity for the staff.

It’s not only an advantage scouting, but it’s another chance for Flores and the staff to make a positive impression. It goes along with what wound up being my biggest takeaway from the Watson rumors - that being - a star Quarterback seems to be wishing he can come play in Miami. (Basing this off my assumption that the truth to this rumor stems from someone in Watson’s camp)
You can add that to other vets like Marvin Jones liking tweets about Tua and getting him weapons for next year and it’s just encouraging that the franchise went from laughing stock to a potential desirable destination (outside of just location) in just two years under Flores and Grier.
Funny that you mention this because Watson said this before the season ended about a new head coach:

“ We just need new energy. We just need discipline. We need structure. We need a leader so we can follow that leader as players. That's what we need.”

In my head, I thought that’s exactly what Miami did and what they have in Brian Flores. They have a leader and a teacher at head coach. He leads and everyone else in the building falls in behind.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he made this comment and then would be possibly interested in waiving his no trade clause to play for Miami.
 

sodenj5

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So, would you take Smith at 3?
Yes. I was originally on board with trading down and selecting Smith. I don’t think that’s an option any more.

Take the guy Tua played with for 3 years, threw a walkoff TD to win the Championship, who was the best player in college football this year, and who has the character profile that fits what Flores is building to a T. Smith fills the biggest need Miami has.

Do I take him over Sewell? Yes. You have to look at the draft class and the roster as it stands. Sewell would be a luxury pick and an elite talent, but he doesn’t elevate the offense by himself in 2021. Smith is an instant impact player and will make a tangible impact both to the offense and with Tua. The draft class is deep at tackle. Miami can still draft a good tackle at 18 if they are so inclined.

Smith over Chase? Again, I think it’s a coin flip, and maybe the answer is Chase if he played this year. But Smith played and I don’t think you can discount competing in a year where he could have easily opted out, and the existing chemistry with Tua. Like there is no mystery there. That stuff matters if you’re going WR that high, and you’ve been preaching about culture, and team-first, and winning.

To me, Smith checks every box.
 

rymflaherty

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This article is such shit because the most harsh criticisms aren’t direct quotes. It’s Armando projecting.

I think Tua should start, but I’d probably say the same things as those players. Tua wasn’t great and he should be questioned. It’s up to him now to answer those questions, and do so emphatically.
 

sodenj5

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It’s sad that journalists in Miami have no doubt figured out that Tua generates clicks and engagement, and few things generate clicks like QB controversy. Sprinkle in the remote possibility of Deshaun Watson being available, and it’s a ripe environment to take swings at Tua.

Heading up to the draft the headlines are going to be “Is Tua the guy?” “Do they draft Fields or Wilson?” “Should they get Watson?”

Then once that well runs dry, it will be “should they have drafted Wilson because he looked good in one preseason game?” “Sources say some players lobbied for Watson,” “Sources say some players unhappy Fitz wasn’t brought back,” and of course, “Justin Herbert is literal Jesus and Miami made a terrible mistake.”

I look forward to Tua taking the field with a compliment of weapons at his disposal and silencing some “sources.”
 

sodenj5

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After Armando’s flaming turd of an article, Cam Wolfe just published an interview with Brian Flores.

View: https://twitter.com/cameronwolfe/status/1349854970003288064?s=21


Very straightforward. Flores believes Tua had some ups and downs but overall came away impressed and excited for Tua’s future in Miami.

I think the focus remains finding a coordinator and constructing an offense around Tua that allows him to shine.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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It's amazing to wonder how guys like Troy Aikman or Peyton Manning would have have survived their sub-60% completion percentage, more-INTs-than-TDs rookie seasons with today's insta-pundit clickbait driven media world.