2020 Dolphins: Aloha

sodenj5

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Start of the 2020 thread.

The biggest development is Tua’s decision to declare for the draft yesterday. This puts him clearly in Miami’s crosshairs and sets Miami’s front office for a complete redo of the Drew Brees scenario.

Do they risk it on a smaller QB coming off a significant injury? Or do they pass and take someone like Justin Herbert, who comes with a cleaner bill of health but far more questions about his on field production.

Miami will likely have to move up to #3 with the Lions in order to guarantee Tua as teams like the Chargers, Panthers, and Bucs will likely all have an interest in Tua as well. They certainly have the ammo to outgun any other team in a bidding war, but you would certainly like to do it without having to part with any of those 5 first rounders.
 

PC Drunken Friar

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The Lions might be in the best position in the draft. They can drive up the price ridiculously high. Or they can stand pat and take Tua/Herbert themselves. Stafford (I think) has a dead cap hit of 13.6 million after this year and only 2.4 in 2022. He will be 32 in a month.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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The Lions might be in the best position in the draft. They can drive up the price ridiculously high. Or they can stand pat and take Tua/Herbert themselves. Stafford (I think) has a dead cap hit of 13.6 million after this year and only 2.4 in 2022. He will be 32 in a month.
I don't see the Lions taking Tua with that pick. Quinn and Patricia are under pressure to win now. Definitely could trade it for current player(s), but I don't even see them trading down to stockpile picks, it wont help them save their jobs. I'd be more concerned with the Giants at 4 (but of course they are in limbo until the pick gets made at 3). They are not going to take Tua either, but are probably in a position to go quantity vs. quality to fill more holes/stockpile picks, which means more possible trade partners (including Miami).
 

pdaj

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Has Dave Gettleman ever traded down in the 1st Round? Doesn't seem to be his way.
 

sodenj5

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I think Miami is in the driver’s seat in terms of Tua. They hold all the cards and can outgun anyone in terms of draft compensation.

The questions will be how do they feel about Tua’s hip and long term health and do they want to pay the price to move up?

In my opinion, I would rather be bold and risk potentially setting the franchise back another 4 years with Tua than watch him be a franchise QB for another team. I don’t think there a question he has the ability to play QB at a high level. I think it comes do to his ability to stay healthy.
 

Ale Xander

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Don't you actually have to be healthy to stay healthy?

It seems risky for a franchise with a lot holes (Dolphins,. Lions, etc) to take a top-6 pick on someone who is probably not going to be able to play right away.
 

sodenj5

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Don't you actually have to be healthy to stay healthy?

It seems risky for a franchise with a lot holes (Dolphins,. Lions, etc) to take a top-6 pick on someone who is probably not going to be able to play right away.
I would imagine that Tua wouldn’t play right away regardless. Chan Gailey and Ryan Fitzpatrick have a long history. Josh Rosen is also still on the roster. I would be on board with starting Tua on the PUP.

You would hope to see him at some point in 2020 to see what you’re working with, but Tua is a special talent. Worth the gamble.
 

pdaj

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I would imagine that Tua wouldn’t play right away regardless. Chan Gailey and Ryan Fitzpatrick have a long history. Josh Rosen is also still on the roster. I would be on board with starting Tua on the PUP.

You would hope to see him at some point in 2020 to see what you’re working with, but Tua is a special talent. Worth the gamble.
Absolutely. I think the plan for Tua would be the "Mahomes treatment." Let him sit and get healthy/acclimated. The coaching staff loves Fitzpatrick, and he's signed (cheaply) for 1 more year. He's the perfect bridge guy who's capable of making things interesting next year, depending upon how much talent is added to the roster in '20.
 

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If Tua falls into the Dolphins lap at 5 then take him, but I want no part of trading picks to move up. This team has way too many holes and needs to keep all of the draft equity they have to build a good roster.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Who knows what the deal with Tua's hip is, but I am definitely underwhelmed by Herbert's potential. Maybe some of it was the coaching staff (there were a lot of complaints by the Oregon media that Cristobal was too conservative), but Herbert was not nearly as dynamic a QB as Mariotta, and that guy has obviously disappointed as an NFL quarterback.
 

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Who knows what the deal with Tua's hip is, but I am definitely underwhelmed by Herbert's potential. Maybe some of it was the coaching staff (there were a lot of complaints by the Oregon media that Cristobal was too conservative), but Herbert was not nearly as dynamic a QB as Mariotta, and that guy has obviously disappointed as an NFL quarterback.
I reserve the right to change my mind but on my initial study of Herbert (which has been two summers) I think he has a viable path forward.

Let's just talk about his weaknesses and get them out of the way. He birddogs his reads. He has a bad habit of telegraphing some of his throws because of the birddogging. He needs to learn how to use his eyes to manipulate the secondary. He is not good under pressure as a passer. He has some durability concerns. He isn't known for making full field progressions. Processing and processing speed have been a question mark. I think coaching and scheme can help him with this. He needs work to help identify hots and checkdowns. He might be someone you roll out on bootlegs and get rid of half the field for him quite a bit. You can use play-action passing to help him make the right reads and clear things out. He certainly has room to improve with the traits I mentioned above.
I see a path forward with him because he does so much that helps you win. He is accurate. He is accurate with the intermediate and deep ball. He has touch on his passes. He is mobile and highly athletic.
He's had 3 different coaches and OCs. I think with him he needs some time with a stable coaching staff to develop. If I am Bruce Arians I am salivating over Herbert because he can move the ball accurately downfield and isn't afraid to take shots when called for.

Oh and just to add fuel to the fire... Of Burrow and Tua and Herbert which QB would benefit the most from a more simplified offense? Yeah, I wouldn't want Herbert in an EP either! Now I am saying that they fired Chad O'Shea because they wanted to draft Herbert? No. That's a Tyrone Biggums level conspiracy theory but it does make it a better landing spot for Herbert. Miami is going to get a QB.

Final edit, I swear: If any of the Pats or Fins fans saw Buffalo New England in week 16 note the throw that Josh Allen dropped on a dime to Dawson Knox. It was a 33 yard throw just over Chung and perfectly in Knox's breadbasket. Knox had maybe half a step at most but you just top your cap because it was the perfect throw. Herbert has the same kind of arm. So, Fins fans, I think you have more to be excited with Herbert than fear but he is a prospect who carries more risk than others.
 
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Rice14

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If Tua falls into the Dolphins lap at 5 then take him, but I want no part of trading picks to move up. This team has way too many holes and needs to keep all of the draft equity they have to build a good roster.
This.

They need to fill in a whole roster, Tua is very risky. Use one bullet on him, but not all of them.
 

sodenj5

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I reserve the right to change my mind but on my initial study of Herbert (which has been two summers) I think he has a viable path forward.

Let's just talk about his weaknesses and get them out of the way. He birddogs his reads. He has a bad habit of telegraphing some of his throws because of the birddogging. He needs to learn how to use his eyes to manipulate the secondary. He is not good under pressure as a passer. He has some durability concerns. He isn't known for making full field progressions. Processing and processing speed have been a question mark. I think coaching and scheme can help him with this. He needs work to help identify hots and checkdowns. He might be someone you roll out on bootlegs and get rid of half the field for him quite a bit. You can use play-action passing to help him make the right reads and clear things out. He certainly has room to improve with the traits I mentioned above.
I see a path forward with him because he does so much that helps you win. He is accurate. He is accurate with the intermediate and deep ball. He has touch on his passes. He is mobile and highly athletic.
He's had 3 different coaches and OCs. I think with him he needs some time with a stable coaching staff to develop. If I am Bruce Arians I am salivating over Herbert because he can move the ball accurately downfield and isn't afraid to take shots when called for.

Oh and just to add fuel to the fire... Of Burrow and Tua and Herbert which QB would benefit the most from a more simplified offense? Yeah, I wouldn't want Herbert in an EP either! Now I am saying that they fired Chad O'Shea because they wanted to draft Herbert? No. That's a Tyrone Biggums level conspiracy theory but it does make it a better landing spot for Herbert. Miami is going to get a QB.

Final edit, I swear: If any of the Pats or Fins fans saw Buffalo New England in week 16 note the throw that Josh Allen dropped on a dime to Dawson Knox. It was a 33 yard throw just over Chung and perfectly in Knox's breadbasket. Knox had maybe half a step at most but you just top your cap because it was the perfect throw. Herbert has the same kind of arm. So, Fins fans, I think you have more to be excited with Herbert than fear but he is a prospect who carries more risk than others.
Well thought out post.

I want no part in Herbert for all of the obvious cons that you mentioned. Yes, you CAN help a QB learn and develop from a mental standpoint, but how many big armed, athletic QBs need to fail before we look at the guy that has the highest level of polish coming out of college maybe since Luck.

Burrow is pretty much out of the question, so I’ll say who I’d like to see in Miami in order:

Tua
Jake Fromm
Jordan Love
Justin Herbert
Jacob Eason
 

SMU_Sox

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Well thought out post.

I want no part in Herbert for all of the obvious cons that you mentioned. Yes, you CAN help a QB learn and develop from a mental standpoint, but how many big armed, athletic QBs need to fail before we look at the guy that has the highest level of polish coming out of college maybe since Luck.

Burrow is pretty much out of the question, so I’ll say who I’d like to see in Miami in order:

Tua
Jake Fromm
Jordan Love
Justin Herbert
Jacob Eason
I love Burrow and his rise this year. I wouldn't be shocked though if the NFL didn't pick him first. In 2017 Trubs went over Watson and Mahomes. In 2018 Josh Allen went 7th to the Bills! Yeesh. Blake Bortles went stupid high to the Jags. So it wouldn't shock me at all if CIN went for Herbert or maybe Love over Burrow who doesn't have a cannon. I think about arm strength like speed for a WR. You don't need to run a 4.3 to be a good outside receiver. You should probably be under 4.55 though. Burrow has a 4.48 40 in this analogy and front offices leaks already suggest they are overthinking it.

I think most people are going to agree that aside from medicals Tua and Burrow are easy first round prospects.

If you don't like Herbert for the reasons I mentioned I would have guessed you'd like Love even less. I really need to do my homework on Love as my simple evaluation for him is Herbert with a bigger arm but dumber head :).

I can't wait to talk more draft QB with you guys this cycle. I am actually a big UGA fan and have been to a game every year now for 4 years.
 

sodenj5

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I love Burrow and his rise this year. I wouldn't be shocked though if the NFL didn't pick him first. In 2017 Trubs went over Watson and Mahomes. In 2018 Josh Allen went 7th to the Bills! Yeesh. Blake Bortles went stupid high to the Jags. So it wouldn't shock me at all if CIN went for Herbert or maybe Love over Burrow who doesn't have a cannon. I think about arm strength like speed for a WR. You don't need to run a 4.3 to be a good outside receiver. You should probably be under 4.55 though. Burrow has a 4.48 40 in this analogy and front offices leaks already suggest they are overthinking it.

I think most people are going to agree that aside from medicals Tua and Burrow are easy first round prospects.

If you don't like Herbert for the reasons I mentioned I would have guessed you'd like Love even less. I really need to do my homework on Love as my simple evaluation for him is Herbert with a bigger arm but dumber head :).

I can't wait to talk more draft QB with you guys this cycle. I am actually a big UGA fan and have been to a game every year now for 4 years.
In my opinion, if you’re passing in Tua and you’re taking a guy for his physical tools, take the guy with the best physical tools. Love certainly needs a bit more refinement than Herbert, but his arm talent is from a different planet. Mahomes-ian.

Fromm is probably on the opposite end of the spectrum. Maybe physically limited in terms of arm talent and scrambling ability, but high level mental processing and checks all of the boxes as a leader.
 

sodenj5

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Time to bump this thread back to life.

Its combine SZN, boys. That means that this is essentially our AFCCG before the actual SB, which is the draft.

The biggest news relative to Miami is that Tua has essentially received a clean bill of health and appears to be making a full and complete recovery from his hip dislocation.

I don’t care what anyone says, or what you read. Anything suggesting Miami likes Herbert as much or more than Tua is a smokescreen to try and drive the price down on Detroit. Simple as that. Detroit is not trading Stafford. They aren’t drafting Tua. It’s a game to see who blinks first.

I would be surprised if Miami did not end up trading up to 3 to draft Tua. I would also be shocked if they selected another QB over Tua if they have the option.
 

sodenj5

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Miami is cutting Reshad Jones


Not a shocking development given his age, contract, and recent injury history. One of my favorite Dolphins over the last few years, he’ll probably catch on with another team and play for a few more years at a reduced rate.
 

sodenj5

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Miami is signing Ereck Flowers to a 3 year/30 million dollar deal.

You may remember him as the 2015 top 10 draft pick out of the U, however last year he kicked inside to LG with the Redskins and played well.

Flowers was always more of a physical specimen and a mauler than a technician. People thought he might make a better guard than a tackle going all the way back to the draft. He’s still just 25 and his deal isn’t resetting the tackle market.

I’m a fan of this signing. Good start.
 

DJnVa

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Man, that seems awkward phrasing---"affect the quarterback".
 

Mystic Merlin

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He’s not worth that deal, but who gives a shit if you’re Miami. He’s a versatile, tough, good outside linebacker that’ll hit the ground running in Flo’s D, and MIA has money to burn.
 

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The perpetual cycle of Miami fans getting excited about a new head coach, signing a bunch of overpriced free agents, failing to meet expectations, firing said head coach, and then repeating the process over again has been hilarious to watch these past several years.
 

sodenj5

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The perpetual cycle of Miami fans getting excited about a new head coach, signing a bunch of overpriced free agents, failing to meet expectations, firing said head coach, and then repeating the process over again has been hilarious to watch these past several years.
Miami is front loading all of these deals. Should this not work out, Miami can re-reset in about two years and be pretty much where they are right now.

KVN might not be “worth” that contract, but he’s an above average player that does everything Brian Flores is looking for and the money is basically irrelevant because Chris Grier has Scrooge McDuck money right now.

Byron Jones is the dude I am most excited about. He might not have elite takeaways, but he’s absolutely a shutdown corner, elite athlete, that can also play FS, and is just entering his prime.
 

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WEEI is discussing some Brady to Miami rumor right now. Came from Mike Lynch.
 

rymflaherty

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The perpetual cycle of Miami fans getting excited about a new head coach, signing a bunch of overpriced free agents, failing to meet expectations, firing said head coach, and then repeating the process over again has been hilarious to watch these past several years.
the last time I can recall being excited about a coach and off-season involved Nick Saban and Daunte Culpepper.
This is the first time it’s actually appeared that they have a logical plan that everyone in the organization is following.
And now having said that, they’ll stay at #5 take Jordan Love and he’ll be four years of frustration and mediocrity (at best).[/QUOTE]
 

sodenj5

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WEEI is discussing some Brady to Miami rumor right now. Came from Mike Lynch.
Feels like that was floated by Brady.

Brady to Miami makes almost no sense from Miami’s perspective.

The team loves Fitzpatrick. Dude earned his stripes last year taking a beating behind a non-existent offensive line. Fitz has already gone on record saying he knows his role and would be fine mentoring a young QB Miami drafts.

Miami is drafting a QB this year, so Brady (or Fitz) is really a one year solution. Miami’s window of contention likely doesn’t open until next year so one year of Brady still makes no sense. Is he the difference between a 6 or 7 win team and a 8 win team? Maybe. But he doesn’t make Miami a contender this season.
 

genoasalami

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Feels like that was floated by Brady.

Brady to Miami makes almost no sense from Miami’s perspective.

The team loves Fitzpatrick. Dude earned his stripes last year taking a beating behind a non-existent offensive line. Fitz has already gone on record saying he knows his role and would be fine mentoring a young QB Miami drafts.

Miami is drafting a QB this year, so Brady (or Fitz) is really a one year solution. Miami’s window of contention likely doesn’t open until next year so one year of Brady still makes no sense. Is he the difference between a 6 or 7 win team and a 8 win team? Maybe. But he doesn’t make Miami a contender this season.
There are plenty of teams that don't look like contenders in March and end up in the playoffs. Sure, Miami's track record makes it easy to write them off, but they have added some nice pieces. Maybe Brady gets them over the hump? They certainly had enough pieces to beat the Pats in Foxboro last year.
 

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They were having fun on the radio with adding an AB signing, an OBJ trade and getting Gronk's rights to give Brady a nice contingent of weapons.
 

pdaj

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Miami is signing Ereck Flowers to a 3 year/30 million dollar deal.

You may remember him as the 2015 top 10 draft pick out of the U, however last year he kicked inside to LG with the Redskins and played well.

Flowers was always more of a physical specimen and a mauler than a technician. People thought he might make a better guard than a tackle going all the way back to the draft. He’s still just 25 and his deal isn’t resetting the tackle market.

I’m a fan of this signing. Good start.
Joe Thuney being franchise tagged just prior to FA opening was quite the gut punch. I think there's little question he would have been Miami's primary target at OL. As a result, the Dolphins pivot and add Flowers. Everything I've read about his move from OT and OG has been positive; however, contract-year-wonders always leave me a bit nervous. That said, he was an NFL rookie as a 20-year-old. Perhaps he's now put it all together.

As a potential plus, perhaps Michael Dieter will now move to C. He wasn't good at guard this past year, and he did reportedly play well at center earlier in his college tenure. I could envision him being significantly improved there. Though I'm sure MIA isn't done addressing this unit.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Joe Thuney being franchise tagged just prior to FA opening was quite the gut punch. I think there's little question he would have been Miami's primary target at OL. As a result, the Dolphins pivot and add Flowers. Everything I've read about his move from OT and OG has been positive; however, contract-year-wonders always leave me a bit nervous. That said, he was an NFL rookie as a 20-year-old. Perhaps he's now put it all together.
He was certainly terrible with the Giants and didn't lack for opportunities. Maybe he figured something out last season, but there isn't a Giants fan alive that's not laughing at the size of that contract.

America, what a country!
 

sodenj5

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He was certainly terrible with the Giants and didn't lack for opportunities. Maybe he figured something out last season, but there isn't a Giants fan alive that's not laughing at the size of that contract.

America, what a country!
Changing positions is key. Flowers is not a good tackle. He was a decent guard in his first attempt at it last season. Miami is betting that he can improve based on their coaching input, his athleticism, and his age.

If not, they overpaid and took a shot on a young guy with upside that is clearly better than any guard that was on the team last year, and he’s gone in 2 years.
 

Clears Cleaver

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Still have $46M in cap space.
Needs: OT, C, RB, WR, DT, QB
Draft capital: five picks in top 76

I think an OT comes in round 1, depends if they get their QB (Tua or Herbert)...plenty of WRs in the first two rounds. I doubt they spend a top pick on a RB. no clue on DL. I suspect they'll sign two DL and OL/C in FA still at least.
 

sodenj5

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Big news within the division, making Miami’s decision to tear everything down last season even more fortuitous. Buffalo might be the division favorites this season, but Miami can close that gap in a hurry if the play this offseason correctly.

Would still like to see Miami continue to fortify the lines.
 

pdaj

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Still have $46M in cap space.
Needs: OT, C, RB, WR, DT, QB
Draft capital: five picks in top 76

I think an OT comes in round 1, depends if they get their QB (Tua or Herbert)...plenty of WRs in the first two rounds. I doubt they spend a top pick on a RB. no clue on DL. I suspect they'll sign two DL and OL/C in FA still at least.
Was Miami's current cap situation officially reported or is that your best estimation? I ask because it''s difficult to determine the exact number without knowing how the new additions' contracts are structured. I also say that because of the following:

Two years of Tom Brady + drafting the next QB would make the NOW and future of the Miami Dolphins incredibly fun and entertaining, all while putting the team in best position to compete for the division and more as soon as this season. While it's not likely to happen, hear me out.

1) Yes, the real FitzMagic balled out last year in the 2nd half of '19. But he's not Tom Brady. Brady > Fitz.

2) Tom played well last year with very limited talent around him. While he definitely scuttled down the stretch, I think it was likely due to injury (arm), as well as the environment. He sure looked fantastic throwing TDs to AB.

3) Is Tom healthy? If so, I'm less concerned regarding the end of last season.

4) Would Tom take less to compete vs. BB twice a season and deliver him a giant Fuck You? Yes, I believe that he would.

5) Tom Brady, Tagovailoa. Tua as Brady's heir apparent? Yes, please. Tua's already stated preferring to sit in his 1st NFL season. That leaves only 1 season of potential tension/awkwardness.

6) Adding Brady, executing a smart 2nd phase of FA, and drafting well = dark horse SB candidate. Yes, I said it.

7) As a bonus, we'd finally get more than 1 MNF game.
 
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sodenj5

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Was Miami's current cap situation officially reported or is that your best estimation? I ask because it''s difficult to determine the exact number without knowing how the new additions' contracts are structured. I also say that because of the following:

Two years of Tom Brady + drafting the next QB would make the NOW and future of the Miami Dolphins incredibly fun and entertaining, all while putting the team in best position to compete for the division and more as soon as this season. While it's not likely to happen, hear me out.

1) Yes, the real FitzMagic balled out last year in the 2nd half of '19. But he's not Tom Brady. Brady > Fitz.

2) Tom played well last year with very limited talent around him. While he definitely scuttled down the stretch, I think it was likely due to injury (arm), as well as the environment. He sure looked fantastic throwing TDs to AB.

3) Is Tom healthy? If so, I'm less concerned regarding the end of last season.

4) Would Tom take less to compete vs. BB twice a season and deliver him a giant Fuck You? Yes, I believe that he would.

5) Tom Brady, Tagovailoa. Tua as Brady's heir apparent? Yes, please. Tua's already stated preferring to sit in his 1st NFL season. That leaves only 1 season of potential tension/awkwardness.

6) Adding Brady, executing a smart 2nd phase of FA, and drafting well = dark horse SB candidate. Yes, I said it.

7) As a bonus, we'd finally get more than 1 MNF game.
Honestly, Miami’s window starts next year. QB draftee 2020 will be entering year 2, more like year 1.5. They should have at least 2 firsts and 2 seconds, and the cap should be going up.

I can see them building out the infrastructure of the team this year, fortifying the lines, securing a QB, maybe a RB. Then in 2021, they have the chance to make the jump to legit contender.

Brady feels like they’re making the push one year too soon, and I would hope they don’t make the mistake of trying to throw the bun in the oven before it’s fully proofed. They have all the pieces to build something special.

I agree that Brady would be an improvement over Fitz, but I also think Brady isn’t interested in being a bridge guy. He would be the present, not the future.
 

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pdaj

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If there's one area of this team that I completely trust Flores to build effectively, it's the defense. It's clear that he's mirroring the type of defense put together in New England.

The FA targets typically provide insight into a team's draft strategy. The defensive edge is set at this point.
 

sodenj5

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If there's one area of this team that I completely trust Flores to build effectively, it's the defense. It's clear that he's mirroring the type of defense put together in New England.

The FA targets typically provide insight into a team's draft strategy. The defensive edge is set at this point.
Agreed. Takes edge rusher off the high priority list.

Miami clearly targeting young, high upside players at positions of need so far.
 

pdaj

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With NE down on the mat (for now), it seems as though all teams that needed a QB are willing to spend significant resources to secure their guy and compete. If TB secures Brady and the Chargers have to trade draft capital to land Newton, Miami's likely going to be able to stand pat and land Tua. Huge.

The downside? We're likely to see a top QB (or two) slide, gifting New England their next QB.
 

sodenj5

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View: https://twitter.com/rapsheet/status/1239987200760205312?s=21


Great add.Miami wants to implement a power running game. Assuming he isn’t breaking the bank and likely leaves room for them to draft a complimentary back like Cam Akers in round 3. Crosses the need for a RB off the list for rounds 1 and 2 anyways.

EDIT: Howard contract details

View: https://twitter.com/adamschefter/status/1239988559760830464?s=21


With NE down on the mat (for now), it seems as though all teams that needed a QB are willing to spend significant resources to secure their guy and compete. If TB secures Brady and the Chargers have to trade draft capital to land Newton, Miami's likely going to be able to stand pat and land Tua. Huge.

The downside? We're likely to see a top QB (or two) slide, gifting New England their next QB.
Lions look like an early loser in the QB carousel shakedown. Grier read it right and stood pat instead of panicking and coughing up the assets for Tua.
 
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Aug 1, 2001
11,231
almost all the money the dolphins have spent has been front-end guarantee loaded, so the cap hits are close to their actual contract values in first two years

I think they are still north of $30M left...not sure how draft picks count against that however
 

Cotillion

lurker
Jun 11, 2019
376
I feel like Miguel of patscap fame always says he budgets 3-5 million to sign a normal sized draft class. But that is off memory.