2020 Dodgers: When 7 Straight Division Titles Aren't Enough

jon abbey

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Not a Dodgers expert and will probably add to this more later, but the Dodgers are in a kind of fascinating position currently. Andrew Friedman took over before the 2015 season and has packed the system with talent and versatile players, giving Dave Roberts a ton of flexibility in his lineups. However, despite 7 straight NL West titles, they have yet to break through and win a title, losing twice in the WS, twice in the NLCS, and three times in the NLDS.

So their fan base is clamoring for a big move, because they think some lack of personnel is preventing them from finishing one of these title runs successfully and they are hungry for a WS win since their last title was in 1988. The problem is that this kind of blockbuster move isn't really in Friedman's DNA, and he has had trouble pulling the trigger on one so far. They were evidently planning to sign Cole for quite some time, but NY outbid/outsold them there. Maybe this will change in the near future with Lindor and/or Clevinger, but it's hard to give up a lot of young talent in a trade when you know you are very likely to be the #1 NL seed going into the postseason again even if you stand pat.

Anyway, I think it's an interesting situation to watch, so I started a thread. Different GMs have different skills, and adding a pricy (whether it be money or talent surrendered in a trade) veteran to try to put a team over the top is not something Friedman has done before. He did trade for Machado mid-season in 2018 but he didn't have to give up much because it was just half a season and he probably wouldn't have even done that if Seager hadn't gone out for the year.
 

jon abbey

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Also they are one of many teams who Josh Donaldson would fit into very nicely, with Turner's D at 3rd starting to slip. Rumors on him have him probably going to the Nats or back to the Braves, though.
 

jon abbey

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And here is an article about this from The Athletic today:

"Multiple things can be true, and this is one: The Dodgers are obvious favorites to win their eighth consecutive National League West title in 2020, and are the best bet to win the pennant. “The Dodgers,” one National League West official lamented this winter, “just make things so much harder for us.”"

"Multiple things can be true, so here is another: There are people inside the Dodgers organization who think the roster would benefit from a shakeup in the wake of their shocking first-round playoff exit this past October."

https://theathletic.com/1482271/2019/12/24/mccullough-the-dodgers-are-favorites-to-win-the-nl-pennant-in-2020-so-why-does-this-offseason-feel-like-such-a-flop/?source=dailyemail
That second quote would be less exciting except those people definitely include Dave Roberts, who said at the winter meetings, “This is probably the most turnover we’ll have from one season to the next.”, and possibly Friedman.
 

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Moving the Line
Dodgers are my late night team to watch when it doesn't conflict with the Yankees schedule simply to keep up with the NL's Joneses. Will be adding to this quite a bit as we get more into the season, thanks for making this, Jon. :)

I think Friedman's best trait has always been positional flexibility in his acquisitions of position players, independent of how they were acquired, no matter if it was in Tampa or in Los Angeles currently, as you look at guys like Forsythe, Muncy, Taylor, Gyorko, to name a few. That way if anyone misses time or needs a maintenance day, the lineup is least impacted, almost Belichick like in its depth.

Contrastingly, but exclusive to his Los Angeles tenure, likely owing to budget, Friedman likes his consistent, big starters--attempting to resign the opted out Greinke, in on Cole, and any other possible available ace. Wouldn't surprise me if they had a claim on Verlander a few years back, given as much. I also think their strategy to eat a bad contract (i.e. Bronson Arroyo) to essentially buy a prospect is fascinating in its similarities to both the NBA and also that more larger market teams like Boston and New York haven't attempted it.

Genuinely curious to see how guys like Smith and May but especially Lux advance this season. Gavin Lux, #23 on FanGraphs' prospect list prior to last season in what was a vast undersell, was as untouchable a prospect I've seen for a contending club this decade, legit 55 raw power as of right now also per FG. Have to think the Yordan Alvarez for Josh Fields deal still stings, would be the perfect cost-controlled bat needed to truly round out the lineup, for both team and ultimately appeasing the fanbase mentioned in the OP.
 

jon abbey

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Have to think the Yordan Alvarez for Josh Fields deal still stings, would be the perfect cost-controlled bat needed to truly round out the lineup, for both team and ultimately appeasing the fanbase mentioned in the OP.
Although it's not too clear yet where he is on the bad-to-unplayable range in the OF, he played 66 innings in LF for HOU this year and the rest at DH.
 

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The Dodgers are one team that could put together a package for Lindor the Indians can't refuse (Lux + May/Verdugo), but I think Cleveland signing Cesar Hernandez was a sign to move on from the Lindor trade rumors. Even with Lux it would be very difficult for Cleveland to compete in 2020 without Lindor, so if they were planning to trade the face of their franchise, they wouldn't have spent over $6M for a short term second baseman.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, if you look at their team list on Baseball Trade Values, the amount of young talent they have is insane, either up already or close.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/516/
Their 10th most valuable player is Urias at 29.1, the Yankees and Red Sox each only have four guys that high.
 

jon abbey

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Bumping this for obvious reasons, I am very curious how these moves if they go through as reported affect the Dodgers' rotation depth. I have them down to 7 guys after letting Rich Hill and Ryu and Maeda and Stripling go and adding Price:

Buehler
Kershaw
Price
some combo of Wood/Urias/May/Gonsolin

So that is only seven guys, which is especially a problem for the Dodgers who try to keep everyone's innings down. The next ones listed on Roster Resource are Mitchell White, Dennis Santana and Victor Gonzalez, none of whom I know anything about but all on the 40 man.
 

jon abbey

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So in the end, I think this worked out even better for LA than the original deals (although again we never knew who they were supposed to get back from the Angels). They lost Downs but he is blocked by Lux, not ready to help for a year or two, and they stole him from the Reds just 14 months ago anyway. They gained Graterol who should help their biggest weak spot, the bullpen, and they held onto Stripling (at least for now), answering my question above about rotation depth.

Downs vs Graterol will be interesting to watch long-term for all involved, both could end up as impact guys in impossible to directly compare roles. That prospects365 writeup I linked earlier would make me very glad it ended up the way it did if I were BOS, though, he dropped Graterol from top 50 to I think 158 and it was about his poor spin rates more than his health.

But still I think a good roll of the dice for LAD, though, they need to line up as many closer replacements as they can for when they are finally forced to do something about the Kenley in the room, huge weak link for such a stacked powerhouse. Treinen was maybe the single best reliever in all MLB in 2018 (until the wild card game anyway, Luke Voit crushing), so that’s another possibility.

Cashman has copied a lot recently from LAD/Friedman but this is an area Friedman should learn from Cashman. They need to try to build more of a Yankee style bullpen, up to 5 or 6 closer types if you can, and Treinen and Graterol seems like a good offseason in that area potentially.