2020 Bucs: TB12 in TB20 - How Far Do They Go?

Assuming the 2020 season is actually played, how far do you think the TB12 led Bucs will go?

  • Win SB

  • Play in SB

  • Make it to the NFCCG

  • Make playoffs

  • Contend but no playoffs (~6-8 wins)

  • Blow chunks (<6 wins)


Results are only viewable after voting.

Captaincoop

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He did, but by the end of the season, he was throwing to the worst group of WR/TE I've ever seen (given Edelman was basically dead). Put him with these receivers and he could easily have been a top 5 QB.
It wasn't even the worst group of receivers he had in his Patriots career. What he had in the 2013 playoffs was at least as bad.

Brady was not Tom Brady anymore last year. Maybe he can win with a great team around him next year. But it is far from a given.
 

BaseballJones

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How many sacks did Brady avoid by moving in the pocket and/or getting rid of the ball? I am not saying that the Pats don’t have a better OL, but some of the decreased sack numbers are attributable to Brady.
Sure. And how many sacks did Brady suffer because he's not mobile? We don't know the answers to these questions unless we go back and look at all the game film. If someone wants to do that, god bless 'em.
 

Marciano490

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Sure. And how many sacks did Brady suffer because he's not mobile? We don't know the answers to these questions unless we go back and look at all the game film. If someone wants to do that, god bless 'em.
Who in the world would have this much free time right now?
 

Shaky Walton

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I'm no scout, I've never coached football and I have not watched any of the all-22 from last year. But I did go to the Miami game last year when they blew the bye. None of the WRs or TEs were getting open with any consistency. Everyone saying that Brady is slipping or had a down year gives the receiver group way too little of the blame. And while Tampa's line was porous, it remains the case that NE's allowed a lot of pressure on the QB and Tom was on the run away from pressure or throwing the ball away a helluva lot last year.

My eyes saw a guy who was still very accurate and had a strong arm when he had normal time to throw and receivers who had separation. I think he's going to be great down there.

PS: I mentioned the Miami game because I think judging things like separation is infinitely easier to do live than on TV, when the camera only shows you what it shows you.
 

Super Nomario

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It wasn't even the worst group of receivers he had in his Patriots career. What he had in the 2013 playoffs was at least as bad.
The 2013 playoffs group wasn't that bad because Vereen and Amendola were back. It was that first stretch in 2013 where Vereen and Dola got hurt and Gronk was still out and he was throwing to Bolden, Hoomanawanui, and Aaron Dobson (who also missed some time in there) and Kenbrell Thompkins. Thank goodness for Edelman's emergence.

But you look at his 2013 numbers, and they are virtually identical to his 2019 numbers. Completion percentage virtually the same, touchdowns virtually the same, a couple more INT in 2013, a few more sacks that year. Y/A a tick higher in 2013, ANY/A higher in 2019. People were shoveling dirt on Brady's grave in 2013 and early 2014 ... but it turned out to be just crappy supporting cast depressing his numbers. Maybe this time it is decline for real ... but I'd like to see him with actual receivers and tight ends before I make that conclusion.

Sure. And how many sacks did Brady suffer because he's not mobile? We don't know the answers to these questions unless we go back and look at all the game film. If someone wants to do that, god bless 'em.
Brady excels at avoiding sacks. Mobile QBs usually take more sacks than pocket passers, because pocket passers get rid of the football quickly while mobile guys tend to hold on longer to try to make things happen. Brady also has outstanding pocket mobility.

It should also be noted ... 47 sacks was not that bad considering Winston threw 626 times, most in the league. His sack rate of 7.0% was only a tick below average.

On the other hand he did throw 40 TD passes last year. ;)
Winston would be good if he threw like 60% fewer INTs! I don't actually think Brady is going to be a boost to the fantasy numbers of guys like Evans and Godwin, if only because he's likely to throw quite a bit less.
 

BaseballJones

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I just want to be clear here...I still think Brady is good. He's no longer the best in the league but he's still good. Which is quite an achievement for a near 43-year old guy. But I once again want to take people to this trend and ask if people are saying that this is all on other people, other circumstances, and has nothing to do with Brady possibly slipping?

2016: 67.4%, 8.2 y/a, 6.5 td%, 0.5 int%, 112.2 rating
2017: 66.3%, 7.9 y/a, 5.5 td%, 1.4 int%, 102.8 rating
2018: 65.8%, 7.6 y/a, 5.1 td%, 1.9 int%, 97.7 rating
2019: 60.8%, 6.6 y/a, 3.9 td%, 1.3 int%, 88.0 rating

That clear decline *in stats anyway*...that's ALL due to bad OL (which was, frankly, pretty great in 2018), bad skill position players, etc., and has nothing whatsoever to do with Brady getting older and slipping? Not even just a little bit on Brady?
 

Super Nomario

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I just want to be clear here...I still think Brady is good. He's no longer the best in the league but he's still good. Which is quite an achievement for a near 43-year old guy. But I once again want to take people to this trend and ask if people are saying that this is all on other people, other circumstances, and has nothing to do with Brady possibly slipping?

2016: 67.4%, 8.2 y/a, 6.5 td%, 0.5 int%, 112.2 rating
2017: 66.3%, 7.9 y/a, 5.5 td%, 1.4 int%, 102.8 rating
2018: 65.8%, 7.6 y/a, 5.1 td%, 1.9 int%, 97.7 rating
2019: 60.8%, 6.6 y/a, 3.9 td%, 1.3 int%, 88.0 rating

That clear decline *in stats anyway*...that's ALL due to bad OL (which was, frankly, pretty great in 2018), bad skill position players, etc., and has nothing whatsoever to do with Brady getting older and slipping? Not even just a little bit on Brady?
You're picking an arbitrary endpoint here with 2016, which is on par with 2007 for the best season of his career. If you include 2013-2015, you paint a different picture (sorting the last seven years by ANY/A):
2016 (8.81), 2017 (7.56), 2015 (7.48), 2018 (7.26), 2014 (7.01), 2019 (6.24), 2013 (6.13)

I don't know that anyone is saying ALL of Brady's statistical dropoff is because of poor supporting cast; he's probably not the same QB he was in 2010-2012 or 2007. But his performance, like that of all quarterbacks, has fluctuated with supporting cast through the years, his supporting cast was bad in 2019, and his numbers were essentially in line with his numbers in his other years with bad supporting casts.
 

Van Everyman

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@BaseballJones, I’m willing to bet this 2017 slippage is due almost entirely to Edelman being out.

And @Super Nomario, Amendola may have technically been “back” in the 2013 playoffs but he was a shell of the guy who tore his groin in game 1 and couldn’t get any separation. It was only in the 2014 playoffs that he started to look more like himself again.

Those points notwithstanding, I agree w your underlying point in that it’s really hard to pinpoint Brady slippage given the porous OL, the lack of weapons and maybe an injury. Even still, when he had time, he looked pretty vintage last year.
 

BaseballJones

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You're picking an arbitrary endpoint here with 2016, which is on par with 2007 for the best season of his career. If you include 2013-2015, you paint a different picture (sorting the last seven years by ANY/A):
2016 (8.81), 2017 (7.56), 2015 (7.48), 2018 (7.26), 2014 (7.01), 2019 (6.24), 2013 (6.13)

I don't know that anyone is saying ALL of Brady's statistical dropoff is because of poor supporting cast; he's probably not the same QB he was in 2010-2012 or 2007. But his performance, like that of all quarterbacks, has fluctuated with supporting cast through the years, his supporting cast was bad in 2019, and his numbers were essentially in line with his numbers in his other years with bad supporting casts.
I agree with the larger point you're making. But how do we know his supporting cast was that bad this year? By the number of drops? Sanu was hurt, but he's been a very productive and quality WR all throughout his career. Edelman is a stud. White is one of the best receiving backs in all of football. Dorsett was a guy who, during his first two seasons with NE, had a catch rate of 73.3%, then suddenly this past year it's down to 53.7%. Only 1 drop. If you look here: you'll see that his average separation was better in 2019 than it was in 2018.

2018: 1.69 yds
2019: 1.72 yds

So he got more separation, had the same number of drops as in 2018 (one), but his catch rate was WAY less. From that same site, here was his "catchable target rate" in 2018 and 2019:

2018: 90.5%
2019: 75.9%

So just consider Dorsett....was his lack of production mainly on HIM or on Brady? We all remember that one time this past season when Dorsett ran a post and Brady expected him to run a corner, and Brady chewed him out. I tend to believe the QB is right there so that one may be on Dorsett, and maybe that was happening all season long. Why that would suddenly happen to Dorsett, I have no idea, given that he's always been in good sync with Brady before. But the facts are that:

1) Dorsett's catch rate in 2019 was WAY down from 2018
2) Dorsett's percentage of catchable balls was WAY down from 2018
3) Dorsett got MORE separation in 2019 than 2018
4) Dorsett had the same number of drops in 2019 than 2018

So I'd suggest that the lion's share of the problem, for whatever reason, was Brady. Just wasn't hitting Dorsett this year.

*One possible answer is how they used Dorsett. Here's the average target distance for Dorsett:

2018: 11.9 yds
2019: 14.7 yds

So they were using him more downfield, which is going to result in lower completion percentage, so that's definitely part of the equation.

Long story short, it's just not that easy always to tell whether it's the QB, the WR, the personnel, the scheme, whatever. I love Brady, but I do think he's not quite the same guy he was, and its *understandable* - the guy is going to be FORTY-THREE YEARS OLD.
 

tims4wins

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The main thing Brady won’t have in Tampa is Edelman. Overall the weapons are better. But no security blanket in Edelman (or White). Which is why I think he will struggle more than some others think.
 

Super Nomario

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I agree with the larger point you're making. But how do we know his supporting cast was that bad this year?
How do we know Dorsett isn't that good? We know because he has never been that good. That's why the Colts gave up on him after two years, why he was the fourth receiver here his first two seasons, why he had to settle for a one-year $2.6 MM contract last year in a market absolutely desperate for anything resembling competent receiver play, why Belichick basically benched him down the stretch last year (he averaged 14 snaps / game after KC), and why he had to settle for another one year contract this offseason (presumably for short money again, though terms have not been disclosed yet as far as I can tell). Don't get me wrong, he has some utility in the right matchup as a fourth WR or whatever. But he was second among Patriots skill players in snaps last year. (He was also forced to play the X a lot and face press coverage, which he is bad at, because all the Patriots other receivers are also bad at facing press and they had to play someone there)

If you don't think the Patriots' receivers are bad, you haven't been paying attention to what Bill Belichick has been telling you through his actions over the last two years. First there was the island of misfit toys in the 2018 preseason: Jordan Matthews, Kenny Britt, Eric Decker, etc. They churned through a bunch of guys like Chad Hansen, Amara Darboh, and Corey Coleman before trading for Josh Gordon, who with no camp and less than a month of practice stepped in as the #2 WR before being suspended again. With WR still an issue, Belichick used his first-ever first on N'Keal Harry, and after Harry went on IR and more misfit toys (Mo Harris, Dontrelle Inman, Bruce Ellington) failed to pan out, he signed Antonio Brown to big money even though he's a crazy person, only to be left needing to trade a second for Sanu, who promptly got hurt. Belichick's actions have been telling you receiver is a problem; it was the focus of the team's three biggest in-season moves in the last two years and their most recent first-round pick.

TE was obviously a tire fire; I hope I don't need to explain that.

The main thing Brady won’t have in Tampa is Edelman. Overall the weapons are better. But no security blanket in Edelman (or White). Which is why I think he will struggle more than some others think.
The last time he didn't have Edelman, 2017, he won MVP.
 

tims4wins

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Understood. A) that MVP was a default win; B) he still had Cooks Gronk White and Dola. So 2020 Bucs could have similar talent. But when you add in no offseason the task becomes more difficult.
 

lexrageorge

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I agree with the larger point you're making. But how do we know his supporting cast was that bad this year? By the number of drops? Sanu was hurt, but he's been a very productive and quality WR all throughout his career. Edelman is a stud. White is one of the best receiving backs in all of football. Dorsett was a guy who, during his first two seasons with NE, had a catch rate of 73.3%, then suddenly this past year it's down to 53.7%. Only 1 drop. If you look here: you'll see that his average separation was better in 2019 than it was in 2018.

2018: 1.69 yds
2019: 1.72 yds

So he got more separation, had the same number of drops as in 2018 (one), but his catch rate was WAY less. From that same site, here was his "catchable target rate" in 2018 and 2019:

2018: 90.5%
2019: 75.9%

So just consider Dorsett....was his lack of production mainly on HIM or on Brady? We all remember that one time this past season when Dorsett ran a post and Brady expected him to run a corner, and Brady chewed him out. I tend to believe the QB is right there so that one may be on Dorsett, and maybe that was happening all season long. Why that would suddenly happen to Dorsett, I have no idea, given that he's always been in good sync with Brady before. But the facts are that:

1) Dorsett's catch rate in 2019 was WAY down from 2018
2) Dorsett's percentage of catchable balls was WAY down from 2018
3) Dorsett got MORE separation in 2019 than 2018
4) Dorsett had the same number of drops in 2019 than 2018

So I'd suggest that the lion's share of the problem, for whatever reason, was Brady. Just wasn't hitting Dorsett this year.

*One possible answer is how they used Dorsett. Here's the average target distance for Dorsett:

2018: 11.9 yds
2019: 14.7 yds

So they were using him more downfield, which is going to result in lower completion percentage, so that's definitely part of the equation.

Long story short, it's just not that easy always to tell whether it's the QB, the WR, the personnel, the scheme, whatever. I love Brady, but I do think he's not quite the same guy he was, and its *understandable* - the guy is going to be FORTY-THREE YEARS OLD.
It's always difficult to parse where the "blame" lies for under-performance, as the blame is often spread. A couple of comments about Dorsett specifically, however:

1.) Those separation stats do not tell the entire story. It's what the WR does with that separation that matters, and the fact remains that he didn't catch as many balls thrown his way as he did in prior years.

2.) Drops don't tell the whole story; drops are like fielding errors in baseball.

3.) In 2018, Edelman was healthy. Gronk was there; even though he was banged up, teams still had to respect him. Chris Hogan caught 35 passes. Josh Gordon was effective in the middle of the season before his suspension. The running game improved as the season went on.

4.) None of those were true in 2019. Sanu was hurt to the point he needed surgery after the season. Edelman was badly banged up. Gordon was banged up and also not much of a difference maker once he got hurt, and was eventually released anyway. The tight ends were decorative. So now Dorsett had to be the #2 receiver, which is something he's never had to be previously.

I do agree Brady wasn't MVP Brady, and is unlikely to reach that level going forward. But his supporting cast was probably by far the weakest it's been in a long, long time.
 

BaseballJones

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How do we know Dorsett isn't that good? We know because he has never been that good. That's why the Colts gave up on him after two years, why he was the fourth receiver here his first two seasons, why he had to settle for a one-year $2.6 MM contract last year in a market absolutely desperate for anything resembling competent receiver play, why Belichick basically benched him down the stretch last year (he averaged 14 snaps / game after KC), and why he had to settle for another one year contract this offseason (presumably for short money again, though terms have not been disclosed yet as far as I can tell). Don't get me wrong, he has some utility in the right matchup as a fourth WR or whatever. But he was second among Patriots skill players in snaps last year. (He was also forced to play the X a lot and face press coverage, which he is bad at, because all the Patriots other receivers are also bad at facing press and they had to play someone there)

If you don't think the Patriots' receivers are bad, you haven't been paying attention to what Bill Belichick has been telling you through his actions over the last two years. First there was the island of misfit toys in the 2018 preseason: Jordan Matthews, Kenny Britt, Eric Decker, etc. They churned through a bunch of guys like Chad Hansen, Amara Darboh, and Corey Coleman before trading for Josh Gordon, who with no camp and less than a month of practice stepped in as the #2 WR before being suspended again. With WR still an issue, Belichick used his first-ever first on N'Keal Harry, and after Harry went on IR and more misfit toys (Mo Harris, Dontrelle Inman, Bruce Ellington) failed to pan out, he signed Antonio Brown to big money even though he's a crazy person, only to be left needing to trade a second for Sanu, who promptly got hurt. Belichick's actions have been telling you receiver is a problem; it was the focus of the team's three biggest in-season moves in the last two years and their most recent first-round pick.

TE was obviously a tire fire; I hope I don't need to explain that.
Of course the WR and TE positions were weak in 2019. I would point out that other teams "giving up on" their players, only to have them play well in New England, is pretty standard business, and Dorsett was just fine for the Pats in 2017-2018. I'm not suggesting that Brady had tons to work with. I *am*, however, saying that I think it's a combination of things: a weaker supporting cast than in years past PLUS some decline on Brady's part. Which shouldn't surprise us. Again, the guy is going to be 43 years old. I know we tend to see him as a terminator-like machine, but he's a real person and aging (and all that comes with it...slower reflexes, etc.) is a real thing. It would actually be crazy to think that he's just going to forever keep being TOM BRADY. He's not.
 

Shaky Walton

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I just want to be clear here...I still think Brady is good. He's no longer the best in the league but he's still good. Which is quite an achievement for a near 43-year old guy. But I once again want to take people to this trend and ask if people are saying that this is all on other people, other circumstances, and has nothing to do with Brady possibly slipping?

2016: 67.4%, 8.2 y/a, 6.5 td%, 0.5 int%, 112.2 rating
2017: 66.3%, 7.9 y/a, 5.5 td%, 1.4 int%, 102.8 rating
2018: 65.8%, 7.6 y/a, 5.1 td%, 1.9 int%, 97.7 rating
2019: 60.8%, 6.6 y/a, 3.9 td%, 1.3 int%, 88.0 rating

That clear decline *in stats anyway*...that's ALL due to bad OL (which was, frankly, pretty great in 2018), bad skill position players, etc., and has nothing whatsoever to do with Brady getting older and slipping? Not even just a little bit on Brady?
Is the stats decline really "clear"?

I look at

- completion percentage in 2016-2018 is immaterially different. Sure it went down, but not enough to be meaningful.

- interception rate at below 2% in all years. I'm not sure any variations below 2% mean a lot.

- the big drop in yards per attempt was from 2018 to 2019; the drop over the prior three seasons of .6 yards, again, seems immaterial to me.

TD percentages and quarterback ratings are harder to dismiss. Though QB ratings has never been a stat I truly understood or thought was a great indicator.

Still, I look at last year's skill position players as being so different in kind that I have trouble putting the numbers squarely on Brady. As excited as I am to see what Stidham can do, I am severely bummed that Belichick hasn't or can't upgrade at WR and TE. There's still the draft and veteran free agency, so he might yet augment. But I don't think any QB would put up great numbers with a group like Tom had last year, and I think it sucks that we may all be judging Stidham with such subpar weapons.

That's not to say that Tom hasn't actually slipped with age. It's very possible he has. But when your best receiving option is the clearly beaten up Edelman, and other guys are running the wrong patterns, not getting open or not on the same page with the QB to the same extent as that last year's group, then the numbers are going to be off no matter how old the QB is.
 

BaseballJones

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Is the stats decline really "clear"?

I look at

- completion percentage in 2016-2018 is immaterially different. Sure it went down, but not enough to be meaningful.

- interception rate at below 2% in all years. I'm not sure any variations below 2% mean a lot.

- the big drop in yards per attempt was from 2018 to 2019; the drop over the prior three seasons of .6 yards, again, seems immaterial to me.

TD percentages and quarterback ratings are harder to dismiss. Though QB ratings has never been a stat I truly understood or thought was a great indicator.

Still, I look at last year's skill position players as being so different in kind that I have trouble putting the numbers squarely on Brady. As excited as I am to see what Stidham can do, I am severely bummed that Belichick hasn't or can't upgrade at WR and TE. There's still the draft and veteran free agency, so he might yet augment. But I don't think any QB would put up great numbers with a group like Tom had last year, and I think it sucks that we may all be judging Stidham with such subpar weapons.

That's not to say that Tom hasn't actually slipped with age. It's very possible he has. But when your best receiving option is the clearly beaten up Edelman, and other guys are running the wrong patterns, not getting open or not on the same page with the QB to the same extent that last year's group did, the numbers are going to be off no matter how old the QB is.
Nobody is putting these numbers "squarely on Brady". It's a combination of weaker supporting cast and some natural age-related decline. His weapons should be better in 2020 (if they play the season!) but his OL will be worse. But there's nothing he can really do about the age-related decline, except to try to slow it. He's going to lose to Father Time at some point. He's already put up a better fight against Father Time than any other QB in NFL history, but he's going to lose ultimately. More likely much sooner than later.
 

Super Nomario

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Of course the WR and TE positions were weak in 2019. I would point out that other teams "giving up on" their players, only to have them play well in New England, is pretty standard business, and Dorsett was just fine for the Pats in 2017-2018.
I guess it depends on what you mean by fine. He had 12 catches in 15 games in 2017. His yards per target was lower in 2018 than it was in 2019. He wasn't a problem because he was the 4th WR and you don't need anything from your 4th WR. He was the 2nd WR in 2019 and that became a big problem (which is why BB effectively benched him late in the year).

I'm not suggesting that Brady had tons to work with. I *am*, however, saying that I think it's a combination of things: a weaker supporting cast than in years past PLUS some decline on Brady's part.
I don't dispute this. I don't think anyone disputes this.

Nobody is putting these numbers "squarely on Brady". It's a combination of weaker supporting cast and some natural age-related decline. His weapons should be better in 2020 (if they play the season!) but his OL will be worse.
You seem to be taking the bolded as an article of faith. The 2020 Patriots OL will be most likely better than the 2020 Bucs OL, but the 2019 Pats OL was kind of a mess with Andrews out all year and Wynn missing a ton of time. The 2020 Bucs OL will likely be similar to the 2019 Pats OL, maybe better if they add some at OT.
 

BaseballJones

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I am of the belief that Tampa's OL last year was worse than New England's was last year. At least in terms of pass protection.

From: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/advanced.htm

Sacks
TB: 47 sacks in 630 pass attempts = 1 sack every 13.4 attempts
NE: 28 sacks in 620 pass attempts = 1 sack every 22.1 attempts

Pressures
TB: 61 hurries in 630 pass attempts = 1 hurry every 10.3 attempts
NE: 55 hurries in 620 pass attempts = 1 hurry every 11.3 attempts

QB hits
TB: 54 hits in 630 pass attempts = 1 hit every 11.7 attempts
NE: 38 hits in 620 pass attempts = 1 hit every 16.3 attempts

Even rushing....here's each OL's avg rush yds before contact:
TB: 1.8
NE: 2.2

So Tampa was worse in run blocking and in pass protection than New England was last year. And who knows what 2020 will hold, because you never know who's going to get hurt or what new people will step in and be good or bad, etc., but based on last year's data, TB's OL was significantly worse than New England's was.
 

Super Nomario

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I am of the belief that Tampa's OL last year was worse than New England's was last year. At least in terms of pass protection.

From: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/advanced.htm

Sacks
TB: 47 sacks in 630 pass attempts = 1 sack every 13.4 attempts
NE: 28 sacks in 620 pass attempts = 1 sack every 22.1 attempts

Pressures
TB: 61 hurries in 630 pass attempts = 1 hurry every 10.3 attempts
NE: 55 hurries in 620 pass attempts = 1 hurry every 11.3 attempts

QB hits
TB: 54 hits in 630 pass attempts = 1 hit every 11.7 attempts
NE: 38 hits in 620 pass attempts = 1 hit every 16.3 attempts
All of this is going to be influenced by Brady's propensity for getting rid of the ball quickly.
 

BaseballJones

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All of this is going to be influenced by Brady's propensity for getting rid of the ball quickly.
Well, in Arians' offense, there's a much higher percentage of downfield plays, so unless they change things for Brady (which they may do, even if it's against Arians' style), he's not going to be getting rid of the ball any quicker. To highlight this point....

Pass yards distance per attempt:
Brady: 7.6 yds per attempt
Winston: 10.5 yds per attempt (that's the highest in the NFL)

Deep ball attempts:
Brady: 3.8 per game
Winston: 7.1 per game (again, the highest in the NFL)

And while Winston was an interception machine, he was at least also able to avoid pressure and run (31 scrambles for 229 yards for Tampa, compared with 3 scrambles for 33 yards for New England).

Also last year....here's Brady vs. Winston in terms of pressure completion percentage:

Brady: 28.4% (29th in the NFL)
Winston: 37.2% (14th in the NFL)

So Brady did not fare well while under pressure, Tampa's OL last year yielded more pressure than NE's did (and at times it felt like NE's OL was a sieve, didn't it?), and Arians' offense is far more downfield (and thus, time-consuming) than NE's is.

None of this bodes well for Brady.

What DOES bode well is that he's got significantly better offensive weapons to work with, so maybe that will balance things out.
 

Super Nomario

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Well, in Arians' offense, there's a much higher percentage of downfield plays, so unless they change things for Brady (which they may do, even if it's against Arians' style), he's not going to be getting rid of the ball any quicker.
Arians does throw deep more, but Brady is still going to get rid of the ball quickly. This is going to translate into fewer sacks / pressures / hurries for Tampa Bay's OL.

And while Winston was an interception machine, he was at least also able to avoid pressure and run (31 scrambles for 229 yards for Tampa, compared with 3 scrambles for 33 yards for New England).
Scrambling more leads to more pressure / hurries / sacks. Brady isn't going to run around and try to make things happen nearly as much as Winston; he's just going to get rid of the ball. Mobile QBs run into pressure / hurries / sacks all the time. That's why all the best QBs at avoiding sacks are immobile pocket guys (Peyton and Marino are the two best ever; Brady is not quite as good as them but he is very good).
 

BaseballJones

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Arians does throw deep more, but Brady is still going to get rid of the ball quickly. This is going to translate into fewer sacks / pressures / hurries for Tampa Bay's OL.
Should be fewer than last year yes. But probably will still be more than what Brady's used to.
 

Super Nomario

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Should be fewer than last year yes. But probably will still be more than what Brady's used to.
I agree with that. I think part of the plan will be getting Brady to more like 500 pass attempts than the 600+ Winston had last year (and even Brady himself). Like the Patriots, the Bucs did not run very effectively last year, though things got a little better down the stretch when Ronald Jones emerged. Brady turning the ball over less will keep his pitch count down (the Bucs had the most drives in the league last year). The long passing game might also keep his pass attempts down if they have a bunch of 1-2 play drives instead of 7-8 play drives, though long passes demand the OL hold up longer.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
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Should be fewer than last year yes. But probably will still be more than what Brady's used to.
If the Buccaneers offensive line plays to the level it played to last year, then that's probably the case. But that generality doesn't account for a few things:

-- Brady not only gets rid of the ball quicker than Winston, he led the league in throw-aways last year. Meaning, he knew the play wasn't developing and took the incompletion ... instead of scrambling about (as anyone who watched Tampa Bay last year will tell you) like Winston, which led to the offensive line being unable to maintain their blocks

-- Winston threw more deep balls than Brady, in part, because of that improvising. Without breaking down how many of his deep balls were designed plays, and how many were off Winston leaving the pocket, the overall number lacks context.

-- As has been said several times in this thread, Arians isn't an idiot. He's not getting Tom Brady and telling him he's not adjusting his game plan to Brady's strengths.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
7,895
If the Buccaneers offensive line plays to the level it played to last year, then that's probably the case. But that generality doesn't account for a few things:

-- Brady not only gets rid of the ball quicker than Winston, he led the league in throw-aways last year. Meaning, he knew the play wasn't developing and took the incompletion ... instead of scrambling about (as anyone who watched Tampa Bay last year will tell you) like Winston, which led to the offensive line being unable to maintain their blocks

-- Winston threw more deep balls than Brady, in part, because of that improvising. Without breaking down how many of his deep balls were designed plays, and how many were off Winston leaving the pocket, the overall number lacks context.

-- As has been said several times in this thread, Arians isn't an idiot. He's not getting Tom Brady and telling him he's not adjusting his game plan to Brady's strengths.
He may have drafted and acquired weapons more fitting with his offensive philosophy though (which would obviously make sense), and they may not be able to do as well the things that Brady requires of his receivers. We shall see about that.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
32,168
So, so much to talk about here.

Tom Brady threw away 40 balls last year, and had 34 drops
Winston threw away 22 balls and had 23 drops.

Winston threw 30 interceptions to Brady's 8. Winston tied for the lead the NFL with 626 pass attempts. Brady was 4th with 613.

Sacks are a terrible indicator of offensive line play if taken by itself. Brady doesn't get sacked because he's willing to throw the ball away, not because he's mobile or because the OL played well. And then when he did get the ball out, his teammates were dropping them all over the field. And that's when they could get open and give him a foot of separation to throw to..The Pats offense last year was the slowest, most terrible group of skill position players in probably 5 years in the NFL, IMO. SLOW and other than Edelman, none of them were good enough skill wise to get open. Their lead running back was so bad at catching passes, that they took him off the field and the defense knew exactly what was coming.

For those who want to blame Brady's stats on age related decline, or Tom not being Tom, here are 3 seasons from Tom Brady:

W/L: 12-4, 61.8% completion, 24td's, 12 int's, 6.8 Y/A, 6.7 AY/A, 87.9 QBR
W/L: 12-4, 60.5% completion, 25tds, 11 ints, 6.9 y/a, 6.9 ay/a, 87.3 QBR
W/L: 12-4, 60.8% completion, 24tds, 8 ints, 6.6 y/a, 6.8 ay/a, 88.0 QBR

Those seasons were 2006, 2013 and 2019. The one common denominator in each of those seasons was the absolute dearth of talent around him on offense.

After everyone kicked dirt on him in 2006 and 2013, here were his numbers in 2007 and 2014:

2007: 68.9% completion, 50tds, 8 ints, 8.3 y/a, 9.4 ay/a, 117.2 QBR
2014: 64.1% completion, 33tds, 9 ints, 7/1 y/a, 7.4 ay/a, 97.4 QBR.

He's about to have the best group of weapons he's had since 2007 around him. Bet against TB12 in 2020 at your own peril.
 
May 9, 2018
19
My attitude to TB12 while Tom was on the Pats was along the lines of whatever works. I was never sure what to believe but had to give a nod to the fact that Tom generally avoided injury in such a violent sport and was able to be awesome at an age when everyone else fades away or just sucks. Facts like he was in bed with a guy who did some truly awful things were inconvenient but I was able to pretty much ignore it and hold onto the notion that people change. Sometimes the things I heard Tom say generated an eye roll but my reaction was usually more like bemused indifference.

Now I literally never want to see or hear about his methods. Zero interest. Now he sounds like a dipshit to me. I admit my biases and embrace them opnely. I mean, I do hope that some of his former teammates on the Pats continue to benefit from TB12 if it works for them. But hearing from Brady about any of this? No thank you.
It always seemed like his program had two components: (1) "pliability," which I understood to mean emphasizing flexibility over more traditional strength training, and (2) a diligent focus on his diet, which includes making sure that his diet was nutritionally optimized, generally, in additional to the weird stuff like not eating eggplants and consuming magic water. It is likely that he is on to something with his focus on nutrition and flexibility/pliability, which might explain his longevity (along with the intelligence of knowing when to throw the ball away, and rule changes that prevented him from being rag-dolled ten times a week), even if the nightshades thing and the supplements are quackery, and have no effect other than as a placebo.

I also cringed when I saw the immunity boosting thing, but I also put this into the same category as a lot of the things that have seemed-- well, weird-- over the years. It is about something other than football, and he does not devote any space in his head, at all, to anything other than football, with the possible exception of his family. That kind of quasi-OCD focus is what has made him the greatest of all time, but it also leaves him at something of a disadvantage in virtually every other context. It was al part of the package that makes him Tom F'ing Brady, and so we indulge it.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
7,895
So, so much to talk about here.

Tom Brady threw away 40 balls last year, and had 34 drops
Winston threw away 22 balls and had 23 drops.

Winston threw 30 interceptions to Brady's 8. Winston tied for the lead the NFL with 626 pass attempts. Brady was 4th with 613.

Sacks are a terrible indicator of offensive line play if taken by itself. Brady doesn't get sacked because he's willing to throw the ball away, not because he's mobile or because the OL played well. And then when he did get the ball out, his teammates were dropping them all over the field. And that's when they could get open and give him a foot of separation to throw to..The Pats offense last year was the slowest, most terrible group of skill position players in probably 5 years in the NFL, IMO. SLOW and other than Edelman, none of them were good enough skill wise to get open. Their lead running back was so bad at catching passes, that they took him off the field and the defense knew exactly what was coming.

For those who want to blame Brady's stats on age related decline, or Tom not being Tom, here are 3 seasons from Tom Brady:

W/L: 12-4, 61.8% completion, 24td's, 12 int's, 6.8 Y/A, 6.7 AY/A, 87.9 QBR
W/L: 12-4, 60.5% completion, 25tds, 11 ints, 6.9 y/a, 6.9 ay/a, 87.3 QBR
W/L: 12-4, 60.8% completion, 24tds, 8 ints, 6.6 y/a, 6.8 ay/a, 88.0 QBR

Those seasons were 2006, 2013 and 2019. The one common denominator in each of those seasons was the absolute dearth of talent around him on offense.

After everyone kicked dirt on him in 2006 and 2013, here were his numbers in 2007 and 2014:

2007: 68.9% completion, 50tds, 8 ints, 8.3 y/a, 9.4 ay/a, 117.2 QBR
2014: 64.1% completion, 33tds, 9 ints, 7/1 y/a, 7.4 ay/a, 97.4 QBR.

He's about to have the best group of weapons he's had since 2007 around him. Bet against TB12 in 2020 at your own peril.
Sacks weren't the only measure used. Hurries and QB hits were also brought into the equation. I agree that he's better with better players around him (who wouldn't be?). I also agree with the idea of "bet against TB12 in 2020 at your own peril".

But he's about to be 43. He won't *always* be TOM BRADY. It's just not possible.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
32,168
Sacks weren't the only measure used. Hurries and QB hits were also brought into the equation. I agree that he's better with better players around him (who wouldn't be?). I also agree with the idea of "bet against TB12 in 2020 at your own peril".

But he's about to be 43. He won't *always* be TOM BRADY. It's just not possible.
I don't disagree, but I haven't really seen anything from him physically or mentally that says he's can't be TOM BRADY for another year or two. I argued in 2014 that his arm strength was stronger than it was in 2004 and people disagreed. And I still don't see a downturn in that respect. Not even 14 months ago, he was completing multiple 3rd and 10's on the road in overtime at Kansas City into tight windows. What I saw last year was a guy that still had it, but had nobody around to help and he was frustrated. Mentally, he's not making bad decisions.

Now, I think there is an obvious question as to how things shake out this year with a limited offseason, maybe a limited schedule, a new team, new scheme, new coaches, etc., but on a pure talent/ability perspective, I still don't buy that Tom is done and can't be a top 5 QB with the right weapons. Just like I didn't buy it in 2006 or 2013. We'll see what happens.

None of this should mean that I think the Pats should have brought him back. Unfortunately, I think it was the right move to let him go, because the Pats would have been even worse this year with respect to people around him if they had to pay him, their defense isn't getting better this year and their schedule is fucking brutal, so IMO, the right move was to cut bait, shed salary, come out of this season with whatever wins they can get (and if the O/U is anything above 6, I'm betting a fortune on the under) get a high pick, and rebuild for 2021.

The flip side is i think there is a good chance that all of these discussion are irrelevant anyway, as there may not be a season this year, and if there isn't, I can see Brady saying fuck it, and walking off into the sunset...
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
7,895
I don't disagree, but I haven't really seen anything from him physically or mentally that says he's can't be TOM BRADY for another year or two. I argued in 2014 that his arm strength was stronger than it was in 2004 and people disagreed. And I still don't see a downturn in that respect. Not even 14 months ago, he was completing multiple 3rd and 10's on the road in overtime at Kansas City into tight windows. What I saw last year was a guy that still had it, but had nobody around to help and he was frustrated. Mentally, he's not making bad decisions.

Now, I think there is an obvious question as to how things shake out this year with a limited offseason, maybe a limited schedule, a new team, new scheme, new coaches, etc., but on a pure talent/ability perspective, I still don't buy that Tom is done and can't be a top 5 QB with the right weapons. Just like I didn't buy it in 2006 or 2013. We'll see what happens.

None of this should mean that I think the Pats should have brought him back. Unfortunately, I think it was the right move to let him go, because the Pats would have been even worse this year with respect to people around him if they had to pay him, their defense isn't getting better this year and their schedule is fucking brutal, so IMO, the right move was to cut bait, shed salary, come out of this season with whatever wins they can get (and if the O/U is anything above 6, I'm betting a fortune on the under) get a high pick, and rebuild for 2021.

The flip side is i think there is a good chance that all of these discussion are irrelevant anyway, as there may not be a season this year, and if there isn't, I can see Brady saying fuck it, and walking off into the sunset...
Yeah that last thought is so depressing. :-(
 

ehaz

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2007
2,696
Jason Peters is still a FA and the Bucs obviously need help at tackle. Do they have enough cap space to sign him?
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
7,895
You know how every year come playoff time (or maybe late in the season) we have a conversation about which ex-Patriots player we wish the Pats could have on their roster?

Wonder how many "TB12" answers we will get.
 

Seels

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
2,858
NH
If Stidham stinks, then the Pats will end up with high draft picks, which they've basically not had for two decades. A real chance to rebuild quickly.
If Stidham shows promise, then that's something to build off of.
If Stidham surprises and is actually really good, then this team has a very very bright future.

How's that for an optimistic way of looking at it?
He could just be blah. Did anyone really watch Cassel in 2008 and think he has hope as a future great QB? What if he puts up like a line similar to some of the more average of Derek Carr or Andy Dalton -- not bad enough to want to upgrade right away, but too good to do away with, and the team finishes with a playoff seed in spite of him?

I hope Stidham is really good or really not. I'm fine with either. I'm not fine with a guy that has a season of like like Daniel Jones or Sam Darnold from last year. Not dreadful, but not really good enough to be excited about.
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
42,620
He could just be blah. Did anyone really watch Cassel in 2008 and think he has hope as a future great QB? What if he puts up like a line similar to some of the more average of Derek Carr or Andy Dalton -- not bad enough to want to upgrade right away, but too good to do away with, and the team finishes with a playoff seed in spite of him?

I hope Stidham is really good or really not. I'm fine with either. I'm not fine with a guy that has a season of like like Daniel Jones or Sam Darnold from last year. Not dreadful, but not really good enough to be excited about.
I’d take a Darnold season minus the mono and the Pats game in a heartbeat.
 

streeter88

Member
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Apr 2, 2006
1,036
Melbourne, Australia
I’d take a Darnold season minus the mono and the Pats game in a heartbeat.
I had to look it up, but outside of "I'm seeing ghosts", he was actually pretty good.

Overall numbers:

13 GS, 237-441 (61.9%), 3024 yards, 19 TDs 13 INT, 84.3 QBR, 7-6 record. Take away the 4 INTs and the 3 rating (!) in that Pats game, and he would be
12 GS, 262-409 (64.1%), 2938 yards, 19 TDs 9 INT, 91.7 QBR, 7-5 record.

The resulting 9-7 record (10-6 if we get lucky) gets the Pats into the 14 team dance most likely...

Edited (to get the reference to the Pats game correct)
 

Super Nomario

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Nov 5, 2000
12,598
Mansfield MA
How do we know Dorsett isn't that good? We know because he has never been that good. That's why the Colts gave up on him after two years, why he was the fourth receiver here his first two seasons, why he had to settle for a one-year $2.6 MM contract last year in a market absolutely desperate for anything resembling competent receiver play, why Belichick basically benched him down the stretch last year (he averaged 14 snaps / game after KC), and why he had to settle for another one year contract this offseason (presumably for short money again, though terms have not been disclosed yet as far as I can tell). Don't get me wrong, he has some utility in the right matchup as a fourth WR or whatever. But he was second among Patriots skill players in snaps last year. (He was also forced to play the X a lot and face press coverage, which he is bad at, because all the Patriots other receivers are also bad at facing press and they had to play someone there)
Dorsett signed for even less than I expected:

View: https://twitter.com/FieldYates/status/1245022266620096514


Field Yates: "New Seahawks WR Phillip Dorsett signed a deal that qualifies for the veteran salary benefit instituted in the new CBA: he received a $137,500 signing bonus and while his total pay will surpass this, he will count just $877,500 against the cap for Seattle."
 

TSC

SoSH's Doug Neidermeyer
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Oct 25, 2007
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Between here and everywhere.
I'm sure Tom's going to love seeing this answer from one of his new weapons.


"But a lot of the mistakes and interceptions that he made, I would say half of them were because of a bad read on someone else's part."
"There have been times where receivers either ran the wrong route -- I've been guilty of running a wrong route or not being in a spot where he thought I was going to be, and you get intercepted and you get a turnover," Godwin told The Boardroom. "It's not just him. I think people who are really entrenched in football understand that -- that the quarterback gets a lot more of the blame than he deserves. Sometimes he gets a lot more credit than he deserves, too. But that's just the nature for the position."