2020 Bucs: TB12 in TB20 - How Far Do They Go?

Assuming the 2020 season is actually played, how far do you think the TB12 led Bucs will go?

  • Win SB

  • Play in SB

  • Make it to the NFCCG

  • Make playoffs

  • Contend but no playoffs (~6-8 wins)

  • Blow chunks (<6 wins)


Results are only viewable after voting.

Cotillion

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The Montana interview definitely adds fuel to the fire of Tom was destined to leave cause one of the things they had talked about around super bowl 51 or maybe 53 was having more control of things. Which was never going to happen with Belichick and Kraft having learned his lesson with Parcells to stay out of things.

Could even explain all the pouting about AB release.
 

BigSoxFan

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I just dont feel this way about Tom. Every SB he wins pushes him further past everyone for GOAT. Hes always going to be ours, so let's keep those SBs coming.
I’d rather keep the Patriots SB’s coming. Clearly, if he’s there and we’re not, I’ll be fully on board with TB12. But I’m already perfectly content with him at 6. He’s going to be the undisputed GOAT for a long time.
 

Three10toLeft

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I guess I don’t share the same perspective on this as most people here. Could be due to the fact that I’ve soured on the NFL and have been looking forward to Brady and BB’s exit as my cue to close this chapter of fandom in my life.

I wish the exception had been given to Tom to go out a Patriot. He’s earned it. I don’t care if that’s not Bill’s M.O. Tom Brady isn’t Lawyer Milloy, or Richard Seymour, or Randy Moss.

Watching the best case scenario of Stidham play over his head and scrap to 7-9 won’t be more fun than watching Brady possibly go 6-10 with this team. Knowing that in the end Brady will retire a Patriot.

The Pats will have $100 million in cap space next year without Brady. Or they could have $75 million in cap space next year and the same problem facing them down the barrel... No long term answer at QB.
 

Royal Reader

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I guess I don’t share the same perspective on this as most people here. Could be due to the fact that I’ve soured on the NFL and have been looking forward to Brady and BB’s exit as my cue to close this chapter of fandom in my life.

I wish the exception had been given to Tom to go out a Patriot. He’s earned it. I don’t care if that’s not Bill’s M.O. Tom Brady isn’t Lawyer Milloy, or Richard Seymour, or Randy Moss.

Watching the best case scenario of Stidham play over his head and scrap to 7-9 won’t be more fun than watching Brady possibly go 6-10 with this team. Knowing that in the end Brady will retire a Patriot.

The Pats will have $100 million in cap space next year without Brady. Or they could have $75 million in cap space next year and the same problem facing them down the barrel... No long term answer at QB.
Yeah, I agree with BSF and disagree with this. What I didn't want was to watch Tom fall off a cliff in a Pats uniform, and see Belichick go full ruthless Bill and cut or bench him. Would have been undignified. I'm happy there's a clean break. I really enjoyed watching the Celtics in the immediate post Garnett trade era, and I really enjoyed the Matt Cassel season. Gonna be fun watching the Pats without the pressure, and it'll be hilarious if they win the division again.
 

bakahump

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Brady indeed did everyone a Favor by doing this. BB (and Kraft) dont have to be "bad guys". Brady gets a pass because "He is a FA and has earned the right to go anywhere and earn as much as the market will bear". And we as fans dont have to tack on 1 or 2 forgettable years of watching a legend. We get to remember him as the Hottest Freakiest GF (or BF) we ever had.
 

tims4wins

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Watching the best case scenario of Stidham play over his head and scrap to 7-9 won’t be more fun than watching Brady possibly go 6-10 with this team. Knowing that in the end Brady will retire a Patriot.

The Pats will have $100 million in cap space next year without Brady. Or they could have $75 million in cap space next year and the same problem facing them down the barrel... No long term answer at QB.
Just curious why you are so down on Stidham?
 

Captaincoop

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Brady indeed did everyone a Favor by doing this. BB (and Kraft) dont have to be "bad guys". Brady gets a pass because "He is a FA and has earned the right to go anywhere and earn as much as the market will bear". And we as fans dont have to tack on 1 or 2 forgettable years of watching a legend. We get to remember him as the Hottest Freakiest GF (or BF) we ever had.
Couldn't agree more. I don't know how that team was going to improve in 2020 with Brady another year older and no cap room. And they would need to improve significantly just to tread water given how much tougher the 2020 schedule is.
 

Three10toLeft

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Just curious why you are so down on Stidham?
I’m not out on Stidham, but he hasn’t shown anything. Those preseason stats are pretty meaningless, I think we can all agree.

I just doubt Stidham in his second year is better than the GOAT in his 21st, but I could certainly be wrong. I personally think with the supporting cast Brady has in TB, that I’d be shocked if he doesn’t put up MVP numbers.

Edit: “shocked” might be too strong of a word. But I would be mildly surprised if he didn’t put up those numbers.
 

DJnVa

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I’m not out on Stidham, but he hasn’t shown anything. Those preseason stats are pretty meaningless, I think we can all agree.
We don't all agree. The show a grasp of the system and coupled with what BB saw in practice, he saw something meaningful.
 

tims4wins

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I’m not out on Stidham, but he hasn’t shown anything. Those preseason stats are pretty meaningless, I think we can all agree.

I just doubt Stidham in his second year is better than the GOAT in his 21st, but I could certainly be wrong. I personally think with the supporting cast Brady has in TB, that I’d be shocked if he doesn’t put up MVP numbers.

Edit: “shocked” might be too strong of a word. But I would be mildly surprised if he didn’t put up those numbers.
I guess I put a little more stock in preseason than you. To my eye he looked on a similar level as Jimmy G.

I don't disagree that he likely won't be better than Brady in 2020, but if he can become a solid starter then it will help them build a competitor in 2021 and 2022 while Stidham is still making peanuts.
 

E5 Yaz

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I’m not out on Stidham, but he hasn’t shown anything. Those preseason stats are pretty meaningless, I think we can all agree.

I just doubt Stidham in his second year is better than the GOAT in his 21st, but I could certainly be wrong.
But neither of those things matter. As Breer pointed out this week, Stidham got more first-team reps last season than the average back-up, because of health maintenance concerns with Brady. Belichick and McDaniels have sneer more of what he can do than just preseason reps.

And whether he's "better" than Brady this season is immaterial to wondering whether he'll be more than a JAG going forward. Anyone on the outside saying they know what kind of QB he'll be is talking through their hat.
 

Van Everyman

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Re. Brady and TB, Bedard wrote about his introductory conference call yesterday and, to summarize, he thinks it's beginning to dawn on Brady how hard this could be. In addition to learning a new system after 20 years and new coach, he was saying no McDaniels to powwow with about schemes and opponents, no David Andrews to talk about protection schemes with and limited interaction w his new guys outside of maybe a Montana session could make things very difficult.

No one will work harder than Brady to make this kind of ground up -- but this would be hard in any single offseason, much less one shortened by a pandemic where we literally can't be around other people.
 

CantKeepmedown

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The only way I cheer against 12 in this upcoming season is if they are playing a team we need to lose for playoff seeding, or if we play TB in the Super Bowl. Other than that, I want to see him succeed. It'll just further prove that he is the goat. Even if that somehow diminishes BB"s greatness (which I don't agree with, but you know would be a narrative).
 

E5 Yaz

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Re. Brady and TB, Bedard wrote about his introductory conference call yesterday and, to summarize, he thinks it's beginning to dawn on Brady how hard this could be. In addition to learning a new system after 20 years and new coach, he was saying no McDaniels to powwow with about schemes and opponents, no David Andrews to talk about protection schemes with and limited interaction w his new guys outside of maybe a Montana session could make things very difficult.

No one will work harder than Brady to make this kind of ground up -- but this would be hard in any single offseason, much less one shortened by a pandemic where we literally can't be around other people.
While all that is true, it actually could have less impact on a guy with several years experience than, say, a rookie projected to be a starter. Guys like Brady, Rivers, Bridgewater and Foles know the drill and can set everyone else at ease by how they approach eventual practices.

Plus, it's Bedard ... screw that guy
 

Super Nomario

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Re. Brady and TB, Bedard wrote about his introductory conference call yesterday and, to summarize, he thinks it's beginning to dawn on Brady how hard this could be. In addition to learning a new system after 20 years and new coach, he was saying no McDaniels to powwow with about schemes and opponents, no David Andrews to talk about protection schemes with and limited interaction w his new guys outside of maybe a Montana session could make things very difficult.

No one will work harder than Brady to make this kind of ground up -- but this would be hard in any single offseason, much less one shortened by a pandemic where we literally can't be around other people.
I love David Andrews, but Brady has worked with what, seven different centers?
 

Harry Hooper

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While all that is true, it actually could have less impact on a guy with several years experience than, say, a rookie projected to be a starter. Guys like Brady, Rivers, Bridgewater and Foles know the drill and can set everyone else at ease by how they approach eventual practices.

Plus, it's Bedard ... screw that guy
It doesn't have to be his elbow again, but if Brady has some sort of ailment this coming season that limits his practice time significantly, that could be a major challenge to getting everyone on offense on the same page.
 

E5 Yaz

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It doesn't have to be his elbow again, but if Brady has some sort of ailment this coming season that limits his practice time significantly, that could be a major challenge to getting everyone on offense on the same page.
Yeah, but that's true of any quarterback. Again, I think experience -- not with teammates, but with pro football -- helps out veterans more in a shortened preseason.
 

Harry Hooper

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Yeah, but that's true of any quarterback. Again, I think experience -- not with teammates, but with pro football -- helps out veterans more in a shortened preseason.
Older players stay dinged up longer. Still, betting against Brady has not been a winning proposition historically.
 

streeter88

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Wow. Early returns are that 25% of us think that Brady will at age 43 lead the Bucs to the NFCCG or better.
The longer this poll goes, the lower the total percentage of votes for Brady going to NFCCG is.

Down to 22.2% now.

I agree with Bedard’s premise, the task ahead of Brady might be harder than it looks on paper.

Edit: Math.
 
The longer this poll goes, the lower the total percentage of votes for Brady going to NFCCG is.
I think it's weird enough that more than 85% of you think Tampa Bay will make the playoffs. They might well accomplish that, but even with the expanded playoffs, I think it's more like a 50-50 proposition - the Bucs' deficiencies last season were much, much greater than Jameis' inaccuracy issues.
 

bakahump

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I just doubt Stidham in his second year is better than the GOAT in his 21st, but I could certainly be wrong. I personally think with the supporting cast Brady has in TB, that I’d be shocked if he doesn’t put up MVP numbers.

Edit: “shocked” might be too strong of a word. But I would be mildly surprised if he didn’t put up those numbers.
I dont think anyone is arguing that. But I will bet that Stidham is better then Brady in his 5th year then Brady would be in his 24th.
I will be shocked if he puts up MVP numbers or even slightly less. I think TBay is new and shiny and alot of people are looking at a few WRs and TE and getting some unrealistic expectations for Brady and the team. Have we not watched Teams with Good (which is what Brady is now) Qbs and some weapons fail miserably? Have we not watched QBs (especially THIS QB) have to have some time with their Woobies before they click? Did we not watch a better Brady in the past get derailed by a OL that failed to keep him clean? TBays Achilles heel is that line, and it will seriously impact Bradys production (and team success) moving forward. I just hope it doesnt affect his health.

I love Brady and have gone on record as saying I am rooting for him....even if he Played the Pats this year (cause it would only help us down the road with a better pick). But I think some of us are going a little crazy with expectations of a 43 year old guy, that isnt even going to a great situation. Is it better then the 2020 Pats Probably a little. But its not Manning to the Broncos Perfect.

What many of us are saying is that the time to move on was probably now. And that short term pain will likely lead to a better 2022-->
 

Super Nomario

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I dont think anyone is arguing that. But I will bet that Stidham is better then Brady in his 5th year then Brady would be in his 24th.
I will be shocked if he puts up MVP numbers or even slightly less. I think TBay is new and shiny and alot of people are looking at a few WRs and TE and getting some unrealistic expectations for Brady and the team. Have we not watched Teams with Good (which is what Brady is now) Qbs and some weapons fail miserably? Have we not watched QBs (especially THIS QB) have to have some time with their Woobies before they click? Did we not watch a better Brady in the past get derailed by a OL that failed to keep him clean? TBays Achilles heel is that line, and it will seriously impact Bradys production (and team success) moving forward. I just hope it doesnt affect his health.
Where does this rep of Brady's come from? Moss and Welker were good right away. Dola had 100 yards in his first game in a Pats uniform. Cooks was good right away. Gordon and Brown were contributing early on. I would wager Brady does a better job than most getting going with guys quickly than most quarterbacks.

Tampa Bay needs to improve their tackle situation, but the interior OL is good and that's the key for Brady.

What many of us are saying is that the time to move on was probably now. And that short term pain will likely lead to a better 2022-->
2022? What are we even talking about here? The Patriots have 12 players under contract for 2022: last year's rookie class, Shaq Mason, Jonathan Jones, and Joe Cardona. They aren't any better positioned for 2022 than any other team, especially since early returns on last year's rookie class are poor.
 

Royal Reader

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Where does this rep of Brady's come from? Moss and Welker were good right away. Dola had 100 yards in his first game in a Pats uniform. Cooks was good right away. Gordon and Brown were contributing early on. I would wager Brady does a better job than most getting going with guys quickly than most quarterbacks.

Tampa Bay needs to improve their tackle situation, but the interior OL is good and that's the key for Brady.

2022? What are we even talking about here? The Patriots have 12 players under contract for 2022: last year's rookie class, Shaq Mason, Jonathan Jones, and Joe Cardona. They aren't any better positioned for 2022 than any other team, especially since early returns on last year's rookie class are poor.
To the first part, agreed. They are also picking decently high, imagine one of their first two picks is a tackle, and the other a defensive player. Take an RB in the third or fourth as their situation was not. good. I don't think it's a real contender, I think it's a playoff team.

As to the second, either this season is good or they start a high pick in 2021. If they're good, they have a fourth-year Stidham which is the sweet spot if he can be the tenth or so best QB. If they can't get QB figured out this year, they're probably bad, and starting a high pick as a rookie in 2021, thus they have a decent shot at having a good passer with some experience. Fairly clear they'll be worse this year for making this specific decision, better in 2022 (though agreed a ton can happen between now and then) with room to argue about 2021, but probably somewhat worse.

Obviously the Patriots aren't going to be the TB12 Pats again probably ever, but I think there's reasonable hope for an early 2010s Seahawks esque three year run before BB calls it quits.
 

BaseballJones

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If Stidham stinks, then the Pats will end up with high draft picks, which they've basically not had for two decades. A real chance to rebuild quickly.
If Stidham shows promise, then that's something to build off of.
If Stidham surprises and is actually really good, then this team has a very very bright future.

How's that for an optimistic way of looking at it?
 

Van Everyman

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This is a good discussion. Just to be clear, I'm not subscribing--and I don't think Bedard is either--to the idea that Brady is necessarily going to struggle in this new system. I think it's more that, well, this could be harder than it may have seemed at first glance once everybody puts the emotion of the decision itself behind them.

There's just a lot of unknowns ... from Brady's ability to develop a rapport with a whole new slate of receivers in the compressed timeframe to how comfortable he'll be adapting to a new system to how effective his coaching staff is to adapting to him. Esp. during a pandemic that will shorten the offseason and prevent groups of guys--players, coaches--from getting together early and often. Even if a bunch of dudes conclude "Fuck social distancing, I'm getting together with my boy Tommy," it's not going to be the same.

Because of who he is, I'd still say Brady's chances of success in TB are more probable than not. But I wouldn't bet the house on it.
 

bakahump

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I dont think its a ding on Brady per se. He wants his WR to Be at location X at Time Y. That takes time to establish. Will Mike Evans be at the right place 98% of the time? Maybe. Probably. Will Goodwin or Watson? Who knows. The better your talent level the easier that seems to be.

Some WRs get it quick. Some Dont. And Brady has never shown any deviation from this "Perfection". And if your not where he thinks you should be you get into the dog house. It that really debatable? Maybe its my perception bias. Or maybe there is something to it. Hard to tell because the windows in the NFL are so small.

Anyway we shall see how quickly TB meshes in Tbay.
 

Ed Hillel

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That Montana interview makes me think the guy has CTE, because it was entirely nonsensical. He contradicts himself legit every other sentence.
 

Super Nomario

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As to the second, either this season is good or they start a high pick in 2021. If they're good, they have a fourth-year Stidham which is the sweet spot if he can be the tenth or so best QB. If they can't get QB figured out this year, they're probably bad, and starting a high pick as a rookie in 2021, thus they have a decent shot at having a good passer with some experience. Fairly clear they'll be worse this year for making this specific decision, better in 2022 (though agreed a ton can happen between now and then) with room to argue about 2021, but probably somewhat worse.
Those aren't the only options. They could finish bad but not bad enough to get a top pick, whatever that even means since the 2021 QB class could look completely different than we're envisioning it today. Stidham could be in that middle range where it's hard to tell whether he's actually good or not - people still debate Dak and Cam and Goff and Jimmy G - leaving the team in a difficult position to decide to move on or extend him. They could be so bad they draft a top QB and he stinks; top QBs stink all the time. Stidham could be good and the aging defense (DMac, JMac, Chung, Gilmore, Hightower, Guy, Simon all 30+ or turning it this season; J.C. Jackson and Adam Butler the only young returning young guys to play more than 1/3 of snaps) could fall apart.

Bottom line: this team has one asset for 2022, Bill Belichick, and he'll be 70. Compare them to the other three teams in the division: they are rolling over less cap space. They have less draft capital than NYJ and far less than the Dolphins. Their quarterback is completely unproven and was drafted much later than Darnold or Allen or Miami's presumptive pick. They have to build essentially the entire team from scratch apart from their guard tandem (assuming a Thuney extension; it's even bleaker if they trade him) and any 2019 draftees that wind up panning out.

I have a lot of faith in Belichick, but I have no idea how many more years he has, and the rebuild task ahead of him is monumental. Brady's not here anymore and the team has very little in terms of young core.

I dont think its a ding on Brady per se. He wants his WR to Be at location X at Time Y. That takes time to establish. Will Mike Evans be at the right place 98% of the time? Maybe. Probably. Will Goodwin or Watson? Who knows. The better your talent level the easier that seems to be.

Some WRs get it quick. Some Dont. And Brady has never shown any deviation from this "Perfection". And if your not where he thinks you should be you get into the dog house. It that really debatable? Maybe its my perception bias. Or maybe there is something to it. Hard to tell because the windows in the NFL are so small.
This is how passing offenses work, since Sid Gillman in the 1970's.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah. I am perfectly at ease with this. The guy wanted to leave. Sucks that it had to happen with an icon but cleanest break I can remember. And he’s 43 in September. The last thing I wanted to see was Brady sucking in a Pats uniform.
I feel like I’m in the minority but personally I’m embracing this move and going to love having a favorite NFC team to root for. Brady gave us his best years.....errrrrr, decades here. I’m content with that and want him and the Bucs yo do well over the next two years except when they come to Foxborough in 2021.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think it's weird enough that more than 85% of you think Tampa Bay will make the playoffs. They might well accomplish that, but even with the expanded playoffs, I think it's more like a 50-50 proposition - the Bucs' deficiencies last season were much, much greater than Jameis' inaccuracy issues.
I think they'll be in the mix for it because 7 of 16 make it and there are probably 5 teams who are going to be quite bad. It also helps that the top of the NFC South isn't anything special, so a much better chance to get wins in division than if they were in the West or North.
 

BaseballJones

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LOL. But how unlikely is this scenario: TB struggles. With very few preseason reps, Brady and his receivers don't click like he expected. The OL is as bad as it may seem it is, and Brady's taking a pounding. The Bucs are a few games under .500.

Meanwhile, the Pats are surprising 6-2 with Stidham playing well, clicking with his receivers, the OL is plowing holes for the running game, and the defense is stellar.

At what point would Brady think....oh crap I f***ed this up royally.

??
 
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I feel like I’m in the minority but personally I’m embracing this move and going to love having a favorite NFC team to root for. Brady gave us his best years.....errrrrr, decades here. I’m content with that and want him and the Bucs yo do well over the next two years except when they come to Foxborough in 2021.
This is where I am, as well. I’m bummed with how things finished up, but someday that won’t really matter, and for the time being I’m a Patriots fan (forever) and a Tampa Bay Bucs fan every time they’re not playing the Patriots. I hope he does great.
 

Pandemonium67

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Me three. I'm in the "It's no one's fault" camp and don't mind at all that TB took off for a fresh challenge somewhere else. I hope he does great and plays till he's 45, and that BB builds a new juggernaut in the meantime. I'll always have immense admiration for TB and don't care that he was 99% perfect instead of 100%.

This also avoids the ugly scenario where BB benches TB for Stidham, the way he did with Bledsoe (after the injury). I'd hate to see TB on the bench in a Pats uniform when his clock finally ticks down to zero.
 

j-man

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Just curious why you are so down on Stidham?
i know bill and josh can do wonders at QB but being a big SEC fan a saw a lot of Stidham in college and he has great arm talent but can be hot/cold steakly as a passer they was some games he was really good but struggles against the bama and uga of the world
 

Ed Hillel

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He struggled this past season. It wasn't all on him, but he definitely struggled.
He did, but by the end of the season, he was throwing to the worst group of WR/TE I've ever seen (given Edelman was basically dead). Put him with these receivers and he could easily have been a top 5 QB.
 

j-man

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To the first part, agreed. They are also picking decently high, imagine one of their first two picks is a tackle, and the other a defensive player. Take an RB in the third or fourth as their situation was not. good. I don't think it's a real contender, I think it's a playoff team.

As to the second, either this season is good or they start a high pick in 2021. If they're good, they have a fourth-year Stidham which is the sweet spot if he can be the tenth or so best QB. If they can't get QB figured out this year, they're probably bad, and starting a high pick as a rookie in 2021, thus they have a decent shot at having a good passer with some experience. Fairly clear they'll be worse this year for making this specific decision, better in 2022 (though agreed a ton can happen between now and then) with room to argue about 2021, but probably somewhat worse.

Obviously the Patriots aren't going to be the TB12 Pats again probably ever, but I think there's reasonable hope for an early 2010s Seahawks esque three year run before BB calls it quits.
good news is bill will coach 6-8 more seasons to beat shula
bad news is unlees u hit on the next 2 3 draft classes u will likely be denver post 2015 or miami 1990-1995

your big thing needs to be grooming MCD or Mayo or getting Judge back from NY by 2026
 

BaseballJones

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He did, but by the end of the season, he was throwing to the worst group of WR/TE I've ever seen (given Edelman was basically dead). Put him with these receivers and he could easily have been a top 5 QB.
Maybe. You could be right. Give him two lousy tackles and an OL that allowed 47 sacks compared with New England's 28, and give him a new offense to learn with new players, and give him a lot fewer off-season reps to get in sync, and it might be a lot harder than people think.

I wouldn't put it past him...he's the GOAT. But it wouldn't surprise me to see him be, well, no longer a top-level QB. He could struggle next year.
 

cornwalls@6

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I do think there was an injury element with his elbow last year as well. Assuming that’s healed, and with a pretty good group of weapons, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him perform at a top ten QB level. I don't think the overall team and operation is super bowl caliber, and asking a 43 to play at very elite/MVP level is a big ask, but if healthy, I don’t think he embarrasses himself in any way. I expect him to play well.
 

heavyde050

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Maybe. You could be right. Give him two lousy tackles and an OL that allowed 47 sacks compared with New England's 28, and give him a new offense to learn with new players, and give him a lot fewer off-season reps to get in sync, and it might be a lot harder than people think.

I wouldn't put it past him...he's the GOAT. But it wouldn't surprise me to see him be, well, no longer a top-level QB. He could struggle next year.
How many sacks did Brady avoid by moving in the pocket and/or getting rid of the ball? I am not saying that the Pats don’t have a better OL, but some of the decreased sack numbers are attributable to Brady.
 

Marciano490

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How many sacks did Brady avoid by moving in the pocket and/or getting rid of the ball? I am not saying that the Pats don’t have a better OL, but some of the decreased sack numbers are attributable to Brady.
How many did Winston avoid by throwing interceptions?