2020-2021 Yankees Offseason Discussion

terrynever

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Maybe the first decision NY needs to make this winter is on Zack Britton. Right now his remaining deal is 1/13, FA after 2021. NY has 3 days after the World Series to decide whether to exercise a $14M option on him for 2022 or not. If they choose not to, Britton gets 2 days to decide whether to become an immediate FA or not. I’m betting they decline and he stays for 2021, but any of the three outcomes are possible.
You’re right. This is the first item of business. Britton stays if Yanks and his agent can work out a longer deal, maybe three years. His sinker will always sink. His stuff is still nasty. He can and has closed during Chapman’s various absences. MVP of the bullpen.
Then they have to lock up LeMahieu.
 

jon abbey

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I would guess if DJ goes elsewhere and NY decides to move Gleyber to 2B and sign one of the pricy SSs next winter, that NY's preferred one-year fill-in option at SS would be Andrelton Simmons over Didi, Simmons' D isn't what it was at his peak but he should still be very solid there, I'd think.
 

jon abbey

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I generally defend giving Sanchez a long leash behind the plate during the season, but in terms of personnel, I have suggested for years that NY try to upgrade the position behind/next to him. For instance last winter, in the first post of this annual thread last October, I suggested NY offer Travis D'Arnaud 3/24 for a time-sharing catcher spot with Sanchez.


D'Arnaud instead signed for 2/16 with ATL and was today named first team All-MLB for this season by Baseball America.


Also after he signed with ATL, later in that same thread I think, I strongly pushed for NY to bump Higgy with Martin Maldonado, Cole's personal catcher for the most dominant stretch of his career, the second half of 2019. He instead signed for 2/7 back with HOU and was the primary catcher leading a staff with nine rookies deep into the postseason.

So GM Jon solved this one last winter, it would be a lot easier to now add a second catcher to D'Arnaud or Maldonado than it is Higashioka. Higgy has some skills, elite pitch framing, but he has never been able to stay healthy his whole career, less than 2800 career PAs total over 13 seasons. He is great as a third catcher with options but he is hurt often enough that if he is part of your mix, then you need more depth behind him.
 

jon abbey

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As I said in the other thread, NY picked up the 2022 $14M option on Britton, so no more options, 2/27 from here. Chapman and Green and Britton are all now under control through 2022 exactly, same with Judge and Sanchez (who may not make it that long).

Gardner's $10M option was turned down (he got a $2.5M buyout) and Happ's $17M option officially did not vest and was also turned down, so those two are now officially FAs.
 

jon abbey

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Good. Now sign DJ and figure out the rest after.
The Fangraphs salary guesses/estimates came out today, and DJ's were way lower than I expected, the writer's own (3/31) and the crowdsourced numbers (3/42 as a median). If that is a realistic range, he might even consider taking the 1/18.9 qualifying offer (assuming NY offers it which I'm sure they will).

 

jon abbey

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One thing worth noting about DJ that they mention there is that quite a bit of his new-found power these past two seasons came on balls he just flipped over the short RF fence in Yankee Stadium, 16 of his 36 HRs in 2019/2020 were to RF in home games. Combine that with his possibly slowing defense and maybe NY won't have to pay as much as I expected.
 

jon abbey

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NY outrighted Tommy Kahnle as expected, since he will be out most or all of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery (he had it on August 5) and this would have been his last year of control, and he instead elected free agency, again predictably.

So there's a good chance this is it for his NY career, originally drafted by NY in 2010, taken by COL in the rule 5 after 2013 (that seems very quick) and then acquired from the White Sox in July 2017 along with David Robertson and Todd Frazier for Blake Rutherford etc. Kahnle was awesome in the 2017 and 2019 postseason, 19.1 innings in 15 games with a 2.33 ERA, including a perfect 2.1 in the comeback WC game win against MIN in 2017, helping cover for Severino getting knocked out in the 1st.

Bye, Tommy.
 

curly2

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I think Kahnle may have have been a big victim of the Astros sign stealing in Game 7 of the ALCS in 2017. I remember thinking. "He's using the changeup too much. It's like the Astros know what's coming."
 

jon abbey

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NY officially extends the qualifying offer (1/18.9) to DJ, not to Tanaka or Paxton.
 

jon abbey

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Not that it has been a genuine possibility in a few years, but Stanton is officially not opting out of the remaining 7/218 (!!!) remaining in his deal, but I think given the relatively low AAV ($22.75M per season) and his molten postseason (6 HRs in 7 games and a 1.426 OPS), NY is OK with that right now, not that they have a choice.

There are no options remaining now until the deal expires after 2027 (!) and NY has a $25M option with a $10M buyout for 2028, and Stanton has full no-trade protection.
 

terrynever

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Not that it has been a genuine possibility in a few years, but Stanton is officially not opting out of the remaining 7/218 (!!!) remaining in his deal, but I think given the relatively low AAV ($22.75M per season) and his molten postseason (6 HRs in 7 games and a 1.426 OPS), NY is OK with that right now, not that they have a choice.

There are no options remaining now until the deal expires after 2027 (!) and NY has a $25M option with a $10M buyout for 2028, and Stanton has full no-trade protection.
I hope to outlive Stanton’s contract!
 

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Yeah, in hindsight that was a terrible trade. He's missed nearly two entire seasons, can't play the field anymore and is clogging up the lineup.
 

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The injuries are worrisome, but I think Stanton can be a productive DH for quite a while. And I just can't believe that he'll keep having bad injury luck if he's at DH all or most of the time.

So yeah, I'm an optimist.
 

jon abbey

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I would say the jury is out still with so long left on the deal and how good he was this postseason. I would also say that as far as anyone knows, he can play LF or RF quite competently but NY has chosen to not let him because 1) they have had better alternatives defensively and 2) they think it makes him more injury prone even though that is never how he actually gets injured.
 

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An outsider's view regarding Stanton:

The Yankee teams that always scared me the most weren't the ones that went out and gathered up the shiniest objects available. They were the ones that relied on excellent drafting and finding the right mix of role players to gel as a unit.

Cole was obviously a need acquisition, but Stanton seemed like a luxury at a time where there were cheaper options available who might have been more productive overall.

Who knows where baseball is going in this K-BB-HR era; but if Cashman and Co want to continue adding the biggest names out there, it won't worry me as much as a Red Sox fan
 

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Voit
DJ
Gleyber
Urshela
Judge
Hicks
Frazier
Sanchez
__________________

Stanton
Cole
Tanaka maybe


I'd say that Cashman hasn't done much "adding the biggest names" out there, really.
 

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Voit
DJ
Gleyber
Urshela
Judge
Hicks
Frazier
Sanchez
__________________

Stanton
Cole
Tanaka maybe


I'd say that Cashman hasn't done much "adding the biggest names" out there, really.
I'm talking in general ... not specifically about the current roster
 

crow216

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I would say the jury is out still with so long left on the deal and how good he was this postseason. I would also say that as far as anyone knows, he can play LF or RF quite competently but NY has chosen to not let him because 1) they have had better alternatives defensively and 2) they think it makes him more injury prone even though that is never how he actually gets injured.
There's another aspect to Stanton and Judge that changes moving forward. Which is that with a 16 team postseason format, there's even less a reason to run them into the ground during the regular season. Judge and Stanton need to be healthy but they REALLY need to be healthy by September because the division no longer really matters.
 

terrynever

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An outsider's view regarding Stanton:

The Yankee teams that always scared me the most weren't the ones that went out and gathered up the shiniest objects available. They were the ones that relied on excellent drafting and finding the right mix of role players to gel as a unit.

Cole was obviously a need acquisition, but Stanton seemed like a luxury at a time where there were cheaper options available who might have been more productive overall.

Who knows where baseball is going in this K-BB-HR era; but if Cashman and Co want to continue adding the biggest names out there, it won't worry me as much as a Red Sox fan
Yeah, a cheaper option was Christian Yelich, whom the Marlins traded to Milwaukee a month after Cashman went for the shiny gold object that had just hit 59 homers. Yelich had not learned how to hit for power yet. But really, what if Cashman had asked for Yelich first? Yes, Jeter wanted to get rid of a big contract but the Yanks could have also handled Yelich’s $7M per year. They could have thrown in Brett Gardner. Milwaukee gave four prospects for Yelich.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing. I imagine Cashman did ask for Yelich. The Marlins probably asked for Torres.
 

jon abbey

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There's another aspect to Stanton and Judge that changes moving forward. Which is that with a 16 team postseason format, there's even less a reason to run them into the ground during the regular season. Judge and Stanton need to be healthy but they REALLY need to be healthy by September because the division no longer really matters.
There's not going to be a 16 team postseason, even Manfred knows that's too much. 12 or 14, but most likely back to 10 for 2021 since that is one of the biggest chips the players have in the next CBA negotiations.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, a cheaper option was Christian Yelich, whom the Marlins traded to Milwaukee a month after Cashman went for the shiny gold object that had just hit 59 homers. Yelich had not learned how to hit for power yet. But really, what if Cashman had asked for Yelich first? Yes, Jeter wanted to get rid of a big contract but the Yanks could have also handled Yelich’s $7M per year. They could have thrown in Brett Gardner. Milwaukee gave four prospects for Yelich.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing. I imagine Cashman did ask for Yelich. The Marlins probably asked for Torres.
Worth noting that Yelich is now on a long-term contract with a AAV higher than Stanton and a commitment through 2028, and also worth noting that Yelich was pretty bad this year although maybe that was just the shortened season .
 

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Not that it has been a genuine possibility in a few years, but Stanton is officially not opting out of the remaining 7/218 (!!!) remaining in his deal, but I think given the relatively low AAV ($22.75M per season) and his molten postseason (6 HRs in 7 games and a 1.426 OPS), NY is OK with that right now, not that they have a choice.

There are no options remaining now until the deal expires after 2027 (!) and NY has a $25M option with a $10M buyout for 2028, and Stanton has full no-trade protection.
Help me with the new math. How does 7/218 result in an AAV of $22.75?

EDIT--and tell me what the AAV of Yelich's 8/202.5 is, using this math.
 

jon abbey

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Ah. That's the piece I must be missing. Thanks.
That is part of it but in Stanton’s case the early years of the deal (now past) were much cheaper, and the whole deal is averaged for the AAV. The original deal was 13/325, divide that after subtracting the $30M Miami is responsible for snd you get his AAV for this deal for NY.
 

jon abbey

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This news seems to have gotten buried but YES fired the longtime director and producer of their Yankee telecasts.

“YES has made a big behind-the-scenes change in its game broadcasts for next year, removing longtime respected producer Bill Boland and director John Moore, a spokesman confirmed.

In their place, Troy Benjamin will produce while Dan Barr will direct. Benjamin has been a No. 2 producer on Yankees and Nets games for years, while Barr directed the Nets the last couple of years. Before moving to YES, Barr had been SNY’s Mets director.”

 

jon abbey

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Any thoughts on trying to get Beltran back in a front office role now that all current manager spots are filled? I can see both sides, I think I lead towards doing it if possible.

(I have not seen this rumored anywhere, just my thought.)
 

cromulence

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Any thoughts on trying to get Beltran back in a front office role now that all current manager spots are filled? I can see both sides, I think I lead towards doing it if possible.

(I have not seen this rumored anywhere, just my thought.)
And give up the moral high ground? Pass. I'd rather steer clear of any Astros taint.
 

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No on Beltran for me too. I don't think moral high ground really exists for any MLB teams, but I do think it could be a distraction.

But I don't know what he brings to the table.

I may be misremembering, but when the Yankees passed on Beltran and hired Boone as manager, but then hired Beltran as a special advisor, wasn't there talk about the value of having Beltran in house if Boone sucked? Maybe that wasn't a consideration, but if so, I don't think it is necessary any more.
 

jon abbey

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Well, someone (not sure if it is Boone necessarily) has been making horrendous decisions during NY's postseason games the last few years, not just that Deivi/Happ silliness this year but using Mike Ford instead of Clint Frazier to pinch-hit twice (Clint never ended up getting in either game, Ford was awful all year) and the Severino/Lance Lynn fiasco against the Sox in 2018. I'm not sure we need an in-house managerial backup anymore either, but we can't afford more self-inflicted postseason managerial blunders like those, and Beltran does seem to be in Cora's head based on the summer 2019 London press conference.
 

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(not sure if it is Boone necessarily)
I have to admit, I am really curious what the internal information flow and decision-making process looks like for the Yankees.

As for Boone, I think he's been improving over time. I hope we see some evidence of that in the next post-season they play too. I think he has two more seasons to at least get to the World Series before he's at risk of being fired.
 

jon abbey

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Domingo German with his first game action since Sept 2019 today, 4 0 0 0 1 7 on 56 pitches in the Dominican Winter League.
 

jon abbey

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There will presumably be a lot of demand for Corey Kluber as a cheap-ish, short-term, potential high ceiling bounce-back candidate, so it's worth noting that Kluber has trained with Eric Cressey (now the Yankee conditioning coach, although he still works with other players too) since 2010.
 

jon abbey

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DJ's agent is talking about 5 years, scuttlebutt is that he would prefer to stay with the Yankees and if not somewhere else in the NE, Blue Jays or maybe the Mets are the teams with the strongest rumored interest.

I think if I were Cashman, I would go up to maybe 4/84, 4 years at $20M apiece and a $4M buyout on a 5th year at $20M. Alternately, maybe 5/90 could work both ways, that would bring his AAV hit down a bit but get him that 5th guaranteed year. Also not sure if it was possible, but they really should have extended him last winter as I requested. :)
 

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Go five years. DJ will play until he’s at least 40. Here is just one option going forward: Trade Luke Voit right now at his highest value and put DJ on first base for good.
 

jon abbey

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Go five years. DJ will play until he’s at least 40. Here is just one option going forward: Trade Luke Voit right now at his highest value and put DJ on first base for good.
Other people have mentioned this too, it seems dumb to me. Voit is cheap, controlled through 2024, and has a better OPS than Judge since he has gotten to NY.

Among other things, DJ has only been OK defensively at 1B, nothing special. He is competent at 3B but really if you are going to pay him $20M, he should be the everyday 2B. I think if they are able to resign DJ and unable to pull off a trade involving Lindor and Gleyber, they should just let Gleyber play SS for another season and then decide next winter if they need to sign one of the stud FA SSs and trade Gleyber.
 

terrynever

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Other people have mentioned this too, it seems dumb to me. Voit is cheap, controlled through 2024, and has a better OPS than Judge since he has gotten to NY.

Among other things, DJ has only been OK defensively at 1B, nothing special. He is competent at 3B but really if you are going to pay him $20M, he should be the everyday 2B. I think if they are able to resign DJ and unable to pull off a trade involving Lindor and Gleyber, they should just let Gleyber play SS for another season and then decide next winter if they need to sign one of the stud FA SSs and trade Gleyber.
Second base is more demanding physically. If DJ is told he will play first base for the next five years, he will work on his fielding, and not have to worry about playing two other positions that require different throwing positions. I think DJ is perfect for first base. And he’s tall!
And trade high on Voit. Cashman is undoubtedly asking around on half the roster, seeing what returns are out there. Gio? Torres. I would check on Judge, too. Every GM worth his salt shops around.
 

jon abbey

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FWIW, Voit has a .915 OPS in 892 regular season PAs for NY, LeMahieu has a .922 OPS in 871 PAs for NY. If you factor in that 161 of Voit's in 2019 were while trying to play through a sports hernia because everyone else on the team was hurt (.715 OPS), I think Voit is a slightly better offensive player and that is before factoring in that he is 2 1/2 years younger. Since Voit (and Urshela) essentially came out of nowhere, it is easy to doubt them but both have been pretty consistently fantastic for NY so far.

Also if you move Voit and don't get a SS back (and clearly Gleyber would have way way more trade value than Voit), even if you then sign DJ, you still need a middle infielder. I think I said it above, but the only deal I see making sense is my much-repeated Gleyber/Lindor exchange, otherwise it probably makes sense to go with the same infield as last year (including hopefully bringing DJ back) and reassess next winter when there will likely be stud FA SSs to choose from.
 

jon abbey

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Yu Darvish has 3/63 left on his AAV (3/59 in actual money), I thought it was more. I have always liked him and he had a ridiculous 93/14 K/BB ratio this year in 76 innings, I would bundle some of that young pitching depth and take a run at him as a #2 behind Cole.
 

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Non-tender deadline tomorrow, NY will certainly tender Sanchez around $5M and the only other decisions are marginal relievers like Heller and Cessa and Holder.
 

jon abbey

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Some smoke around all of Schwarber, Kluber, Molina, to NY. I wanted Salvador Perez a couple years ago to team with Sanchez and Molina would be similar, someone who could work with Gary alongside the coaching staff. It wouldn't be too fair to Higgy but also he has not shown the ability to stay healthy and NY's catching prospects are all at least a year away, with the possible exception of a rushed Austin Wells.

Kluber I mentioned above in post 87, and Schwarber is the kind of lefty crusher NY has not had in a while. Positionally it would be a little tricky, let's figure 13 guys on the roster, which is back down to 26.

Sanchez
Voit
(LeMahieu)
Torres
Urshela
Frazier
Hicks
Judge
Stanton

Schwarber
Wade
Gardner
Higashioka

That is six guys who can only play OF or DH, which is where the tricky part comes in, because the other 7 guys need to both play and back up the other 5 positions. In this case, the infield depth chart would be:

C: Sanchez, Higashioka
1B: Voit, LeMahieu
2B: LeMahieu, Wade
SS: Torres, Wade
3B: Urshela, Wade

Not really ideal, and you can't drop Gardner since he is the only backup CF (same situation if Tauchman has this spot instead). Of course this presumes all six OFs are healthy at the same time, so it could be a case like when NY signed DJ before 2019 with no obvious position.

Anyway, Schwarber, Kluber, Molina, I'm in favor of any and all of those at a fair price.
 

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Wouldn't you still prefer Perez to Molina? He was great last year for KC.
Sure, but Molina is a FA and Perez is in KC for one more year, $14M salary and $10.5M AAV. If KC is willing to move him this offseason for a reasonable price, that could work too.
 

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Sure, but Molina is a FA and Perez is in KC for one more year, $14M salary and $10.5M AAV. If KC is willing to move him this offseason for a reasonable price, that could work too.
Seems like he could be had for a price the Yankees can afford, KC isn't close to contention.