(I did have Torrens protected in my rule 5 list here that year, but it would have been hard for NY to carry a 4th catcher on the 40 man for at least three full seasons before he could maybe help, which is what SD has had to do.)
2019-20 Yankees Offseason Discussion
- Thread starter jon abbey
- Start date
Some Yankee-relevant sections from the article in The Athletic on who should win the Gold Gloves (only DJ is actually a top three finalist):
2B: "LeMahieu is the best defender of the three AL finalists if you look at runs saved on a per-1,000-innings basis, but he played only 75 games at second base compared with Sánchez’s 149 (Altuve had a negative runs-saved total, so he wouldn’t be our pick)."
LF: "This is one of the harder ones for us, because our top AL left fielders by Defensive Runs Saved were Mike Tauchman of the Yankees and Michael Brantley of the Astros. Tauchman didn’t play enough innings to qualify."
RF: "It would have been cool to see a head-to-head comparison of Betts and a healthy Aaron Judge. However, despite totaling more Defensive Runs Saved than Betts, Judge failed to qualify by Rawlings’ innings standards. With Judge out of the picture, Betts (and his 15 runs saved) is the best in the AL. With Judge in the picture … it’s a close call."
https://theathletic.com/1342336/2019/11/01/who-should-win-the-gold-glove-awards-this-year-a-look-at-the-games-best-defensive-players-by-the-numbers/
2B: "LeMahieu is the best defender of the three AL finalists if you look at runs saved on a per-1,000-innings basis, but he played only 75 games at second base compared with Sánchez’s 149 (Altuve had a negative runs-saved total, so he wouldn’t be our pick)."
LF: "This is one of the harder ones for us, because our top AL left fielders by Defensive Runs Saved were Mike Tauchman of the Yankees and Michael Brantley of the Astros. Tauchman didn’t play enough innings to qualify."
RF: "It would have been cool to see a head-to-head comparison of Betts and a healthy Aaron Judge. However, despite totaling more Defensive Runs Saved than Betts, Judge failed to qualify by Rawlings’ innings standards. With Judge out of the picture, Betts (and his 15 runs saved) is the best in the AL. With Judge in the picture … it’s a close call."
https://theathletic.com/1342336/2019/11/01/who-should-win-the-gold-glove-awards-this-year-a-look-at-the-games-best-defensive-players-by-the-numbers/
Max Freeze tried to figure out something he calls 'earned home runs' this past season, which hitters got the luckiest and the most unlucky, mostly using Barrel Percentages:
http://www.freezestats.com/2019/11/introducing-earned-home-runs-ehr-2019-outliers-fantasy-baseball/
Yankees on the unluckiest list:
Judge
Voit
Yankees on the luckiest list:
Gardner
http://www.freezestats.com/2019/11/introducing-earned-home-runs-ehr-2019-outliers-fantasy-baseball/
Yankees on the unluckiest list:
Judge
Voit
Yankees on the luckiest list:
Gardner
Thanks for posting that, Jon. Sounds plausible.
Good concept and resource to keep in mind when fantasy season rolls around again.
Good concept and resource to keep in mind when fantasy season rolls around again.
Yes good stuff, Jon Abbey, and really appreciate the valuable info you post. So, basically the team has three great defenders in DJ, Tauchman and Judge. If Ursehla can improve his defense to the left, he can probably make the cut as well.
Also, I'm always amazed when Judge gets compared to Mookie, because it's a testament of how good Judge is as defender.
Also, I'm always amazed when Judge gets compared to Mookie, because it's a testament of how good Judge is as defender.
Thanks guys.
The Chapman decision is coming today, needs to be made by midnight. If they can't agree on an extension, he'll opt out and NY will get just a 4th round pick when he turns down the qualifying offer. I can see both sides of this, I would probably try to keep him but the max is 3/45, I can see walking away from him also.
The Chapman decision is coming today, needs to be made by midnight. If they can't agree on an extension, he'll opt out and NY will get just a 4th round pick when he turns down the qualifying offer. I can see both sides of this, I would probably try to keep him but the max is 3/45, I can see walking away from him also.
Is it possible that there is concern with the mileage on Chapman in giving him another big deal? This will be his 11th season. 571 innings including playoffs averaging 68 appearances a year.
You mean from the Yankees' side or in the open market or both? Chapman is an unusual pitcher in a lot of ways, but one thing is that judging him by average velocity (as every article about this situation is doing) is a bit of a mistake. His velocity often goes up as an inning progresses, and it's also often context-related. He's also an incredible athlete, supposedly outrunning Billy Hamilton in head to head races when they were teammates in CIN.
Betances is a wild card in this also, 2018 Betances was better than 2018 Chapman, so if they could get that guy back relatively cheaply, they'd have the same back-end bullpen they had all of 2019 with Betances replacing Chapman (Britton would likely slide to the closer role).
I was asking from a Yankees perspective. They've gotten a lot out of him, but there is risk in giving a closer(even of Chapman's caliber) another long term, big money deal as he goes over 30. We all saw Kimbrel struggle to get what he wanted on the market last offseason and he was a year younger.
Chapman opting out would also free up a 40 man spot, which helps a little. This is roughly who I have as the pitchers NY will protect, taking off Chapman. Ben Heller would get a much better chance behind the big four guys there, and as I said above, I think they'd be more likely to get Betances back then too.
SP (15): Paxton, Tanaka, Severino, Happ, German, Montgomery, Loaisiga, Cortes Jr, Adams, King, Garcia, Gil, Medina, Yajure, Abreu
RP (9): Britton, Ottavino, Kahnle, Green, Tarpley, Hale, Cessa, Holder, Heller
That is still 24, Loaisiga maybe moves to the bullpen fulltime and one or both of Cortes Jr/Adams are traded or released or set adrift in the ocean, whatever it takes to both clear and exorcize those 40 man spots.
My guess is that NY is offering a third year and Chapman wants more than that and he will be gone.
SP (15): Paxton, Tanaka, Severino, Happ, German, Montgomery, Loaisiga, Cortes Jr, Adams, King, Garcia, Gil, Medina, Yajure, Abreu
RP (9): Britton, Ottavino, Kahnle, Green, Tarpley, Hale, Cessa, Holder, Heller
That is still 24, Loaisiga maybe moves to the bullpen fulltime and one or both of Cortes Jr/Adams are traded or released or set adrift in the ocean, whatever it takes to both clear and exorcize those 40 man spots.
My guess is that NY is offering a third year and Chapman wants more than that and he will be gone.
New York Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman has reached a new deal with the team and will not opt out, sources tell ESPN.
Aroldis Chapman will add an extra year at $18 million on top of the two years, $30 million remaining on his deal, sources tell ESPN. The deal will keep Chapman with the Yankees through the 2022 season.
View: https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1190851132035338240
Aroldis Chapman will add an extra year at $18 million on top of the two years, $30 million remaining on his deal, sources tell ESPN. The deal will keep Chapman with the Yankees through the 2022 season.
View: https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1190851132035338240
I'll take that. Didn't give him too much length and keeps the bullpen intact. I'd love to get Dellin back as well.
In terms of value, I like that deal (essentially Chapman at 3/48) better than Britton at 3/39 last winter.
The question now starts to become is NY willing to go over $248M for a single season, they have a lot of expiring deals after 2020 to get back under and their farm is pretty well stocked in the lower levels, plus MLB seems likely to be drastically cutting back the number of farm teams soon anyway.
Didi QO decision is next, by Monday at 5 PM and again one I am glad I don't have to make in real life. I will bump that thread and post there.
The question now starts to become is NY willing to go over $248M for a single season, they have a lot of expiring deals after 2020 to get back under and their farm is pretty well stocked in the lower levels, plus MLB seems likely to be drastically cutting back the number of farm teams soon anyway.
Didi QO decision is next, by Monday at 5 PM and again one I am glad I don't have to make in real life. I will bump that thread and post there.
It’s a win-win for both sides. As JA posted, Britton got 3/39. Kimbrel I believe received 3/42 but part of that was prorated. Good deal.
The below tweet and possibly Randy Levine being a giant public dick to him a few years back make that pretty unlikely, I think, but he did grow up in NYC so we'll see.
"With Aroldis Chapman staying in New York, the already-thin relief market this winter gets even more shallow. The top relievers now:
- Will Smith
- Will Harris
- Daniel Hudson
- Dellin Betances
- Drew Pomeranz
- Chris Martin
- Joe Smith
- Steve Cishek
- Brandon Kintzler"
So with the 26 man rosters, an 8 man bullpen is pretty certain. NY's depth chart currently:
*Loaisiga
Cessa
*Heller
*Green
Kahnle
Ottavino
Britton
Chapman
Asterisks mean remaining options, and Green isn't really a shuttle candidate unless he totally loses it again which seems unlikely. Ideally you bump Cessa for someone with options, then you have three spots you can shuttle new arms through, so that is also a strike against Betances. Of course that also assumes everyone is healthy and we have seen how silly that is...
*Loaisiga
Cessa
*Heller
*Green
Kahnle
Ottavino
Britton
Chapman
Asterisks mean remaining options, and Green isn't really a shuttle candidate unless he totally loses it again which seems unlikely. Ideally you bump Cessa for someone with options, then you have three spots you can shuttle new arms through, so that is also a strike against Betances. Of course that also assumes everyone is healthy and we have seen how silly that is...
Yeah, once I saw Passan's tweet I figured it's over. He's definitely one of the top arms on the market.
Hopefully if Boston comes calling, though, he lets the Yankees top it.
View: https://twitter.com/KyleNYY/status/1191047441119948806?s=20
I haven't been able to come up with answer yet.
I haven't been able to come up with answer yet.
Cole or no one for me, I think. Strasburg I think is a slight risk in NYC/the AL East (gut more than logic) and he is going to cost a ton. Bumgarner and Wheeler I don’t think are even a lock to be upgrades on Happ, who is their 5th starter once German is back.
But I trust Cashman to make the right call, I’m starting to get a “go for it even if it means going over $248M for a season” feel, that will definitely be the case if they offer Didi a QO tomorrow (but I still doubt they will).
But I trust Cashman to make the right call, I’m starting to get a “go for it even if it means going over $248M for a season” feel, that will definitely be the case if they offer Didi a QO tomorrow (but I still doubt they will).
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I mean, I'd rather have him on the team than Happ if I was starting from scratch, but probably not at that price he will command, hence my original answer (Cole or bust). The thing is that Wheeler is a bit like a poor man's Cole when he was on the Pirates, there's upside and consistency potentially there to be harnessed by the right coaches.
The intrigue with Wheeler is upside with his strong stuff and having played behind a piss poor Mets defense. The general opinion out there is he's the next candidate for the Astros to turn into a #1.
Yeah, Cole is the prize, and I covet him in Pinstripes like the rest of you, but Strasburg is one of my favorite players.
Coming off a career high in innings and a deep playoff run, Strasburgs injury history should scare a lot of suitors.
There’s no way Bumgarner approaches $130 million. He’s not a great pitcher anymore.
Fangraphs is projecting around 3/45 for Didi, with the two main suitors being CIN and MIL as expected. So maybe NY will offer a QO? I still think it's too risky and a 4th round pick in return isn't worth the risk, let Didi go get whatever he can get and wish him well.
Gleyber and DJ made Didi unnecessary. Too bad. He was a really good replacement for Jeter who reminded us what range and a great arm at shortstop can mean for a team and its pitching staff.
Yeah, he was my single favorite Yankee for a couple of years as you may recall. If his defense was the same as previous years and it was just his offense that was off this season, I'd be more optimistic about him bouncing back with a full healthy offseason/spring, but both slipped this year and it's time to move on, I think.
This is interesting:
"Source: Tanner Swanson is leaving the Twins to join the Yankees to be their Major League Catching and Quality Control Coach."
Quite a lot of info about Swanson in this Athletic piece from March, he is 36 and has college/Driveline ties.
"Swanson, 36, never was a catcher. Not for a single inning.
He was an infielder throughout a playing career that ended at Central Washington University, a Division-II school in Ellensburg, Wash., that sits a little more than 100 miles from Seattle in the shadows of Mount Rainier.
But it hasn’t prevented him from developing into a catching authority. Boddy described Swanson as the best catching instructor in the country. This spring, Swanson has earned rave reviews for his innovative methods, including several resistance drills to improve his catchers’ receiving skills.
“I think (not catching) has given me a unique perspective because I don’t have the bias of, ‘This is how I used to do it or how I was taught,’” Swanson said. “I got to look at it really objectively and I still look at it that way. I think that has really helped me. If anything, I think I’m asking the right questions. I don’t think I have the right answers. But I think asking the right question is where the creative process starts.”"
https://theathletic.com/872162/2019/03/17/twins-college-coaches-wes-johnson-tanner-swanson-billy-boyer-derek-falvey/
"Source: Tanner Swanson is leaving the Twins to join the Yankees to be their Major League Catching and Quality Control Coach."
Quite a lot of info about Swanson in this Athletic piece from March, he is 36 and has college/Driveline ties.
"Swanson, 36, never was a catcher. Not for a single inning.
He was an infielder throughout a playing career that ended at Central Washington University, a Division-II school in Ellensburg, Wash., that sits a little more than 100 miles from Seattle in the shadows of Mount Rainier.
But it hasn’t prevented him from developing into a catching authority. Boddy described Swanson as the best catching instructor in the country. This spring, Swanson has earned rave reviews for his innovative methods, including several resistance drills to improve his catchers’ receiving skills.
“I think (not catching) has given me a unique perspective because I don’t have the bias of, ‘This is how I used to do it or how I was taught,’” Swanson said. “I got to look at it really objectively and I still look at it that way. I think that has really helped me. If anything, I think I’m asking the right questions. I don’t think I have the right answers. But I think asking the right question is where the creative process starts.”"
https://theathletic.com/872162/2019/03/17/twins-college-coaches-wes-johnson-tanner-swanson-billy-boyer-derek-falvey/
From that same article:
"While Swanson only worked with Twins minor-league catchers last season, that changed once word of his impact spread and the group showed a vast improvement in its receiving performance.
Armed with statistical evidence of Swanson’s efforts, Mitch Garver called him this winter. The two worked out later that week in January and Garver came away confident in the changes they have made and impressed with Swanson.
“He understands what’s he’s talking about,” Garver said. “He believes what he teaches is true. He believes there’s not just one way to do something. He’s very open to change. He’s effective in that way because you have to adapt to every player and I think he does that well.
“It makes it easier, especially when you’re looking a new task or new style. It makes it easier when he is understanding and can put it in words that are helpful to you.”"
"While Swanson only worked with Twins minor-league catchers last season, that changed once word of his impact spread and the group showed a vast improvement in its receiving performance.
Armed with statistical evidence of Swanson’s efforts, Mitch Garver called him this winter. The two worked out later that week in January and Garver came away confident in the changes they have made and impressed with Swanson.
“He understands what’s he’s talking about,” Garver said. “He believes what he teaches is true. He believes there’s not just one way to do something. He’s very open to change. He’s effective in that way because you have to adapt to every player and I think he does that well.
“It makes it easier, especially when you’re looking a new task or new style. It makes it easier when he is understanding and can put it in words that are helpful to you.”"
It makes me a little sad, but I agree. I do worry a little bit about Gleyber at SS full time, but I'm sure he'll be fine.
With Didi gone, Hicks out and maybe Gardner gone too (or back in a reduced role), I'm wondering how right-handed the lineup will be on a given night.
More about how Swanson was the one behind Garver's jump this year from a bad defensive catcher to a very good one:
"Garver said in spring training he heard it last offseason when Twitter told him he sucked as a defender. Having learned of the improvement many of the organization’s minor-league catchers had in 2018 after working with Swanson on radical setups designed to give umpires a better view of the strike zone, Garver gave the instructor a call.
Swanson traveled to meet Garver at his home in Albuquerque, New Mexico, last December and the foundation was laid.
“I had a pretty good feeling right away in our first session together,” Swanson said. “We dug in and I could tell this transition was going to be fairly easy for him because he has all the ingredients to be a good pitch framer.
“He was just limited with being a bigger-bodied guy.”"
https://theathletic.com/1297998/2019/10/16/mitch-garver-twins-catcher-im-going-to-be-the-guy-jason-castro/
"Garver said in spring training he heard it last offseason when Twitter told him he sucked as a defender. Having learned of the improvement many of the organization’s minor-league catchers had in 2018 after working with Swanson on radical setups designed to give umpires a better view of the strike zone, Garver gave the instructor a call.
Swanson traveled to meet Garver at his home in Albuquerque, New Mexico, last December and the foundation was laid.
“I had a pretty good feeling right away in our first session together,” Swanson said. “We dug in and I could tell this transition was going to be fairly easy for him because he has all the ingredients to be a good pitch framer.
“He was just limited with being a bigger-bodied guy.”"
https://theathletic.com/1297998/2019/10/16/mitch-garver-twins-catcher-im-going-to-be-the-guy-jason-castro/
Hicks will be back mid-season, Gardner will almost certainly be back (although hopefully not playing quite as much), plus switch-hitting Lindor should be here in 2022.
Also Mike Ford and Tyler Wade might make the team as backups, although Ford did hit lefties better than righties last year.
I know, I know.Hicks will be back mid-season, Gardner will almost certainly be back (although hopefully not playing quite as much), plus switch-hitting Lindor should be here in 2022.
Also Mike Ford and Tyler Wade might make the team as backups, although Ford did hit lefties better than righties last year.
I honestly wouldn't mind if they moved on from Gardner too. I love the guy, but I'd rather move on a little early than late. And who knows what his bat looks like if the balls aren't juiced? Probably still fine in a reduced role, but I'm uncomfortable at what 'reduced roles' look like after this past season. Especially if Hicks is slow to get back and in usual form.
Anyway, instead of Lindor, who I also covet, I think my 'wishful thinking' FA is Moustakas. I know there really isn't a place for him with Gio at 3rd DJ at 2nd, but he has been a player I've like for quite a while.
Of course none of that is nearly as important as strengthening the starting rotation. I'm happy if nearly all the money goes there.
Thst tweet is not showing up, but I guess you mean this one:
"half hour to go but it appears likely the yankees will not give the $17.8M qualifying offer to didi gregorius"
View: https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1191469239611334657
"half hour to go but it appears likely the yankees will not give the $17.8M qualifying offer to didi gregorius"
View: https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1191469239611334657
This is interesting also, probably makes it even less likely he will be back in NY:
"The expectation for Dellin Betances is that he will be fully recovered from his Achilles injury and having a normal offseason by December."
View: https://twitter.com/martinonyc/status/1191467116509253632
"The expectation for Dellin Betances is that he will be fully recovered from his Achilles injury and having a normal offseason by December."
View: https://twitter.com/martinonyc/status/1191467116509253632
Someone will pay Dellin to be their closer and even if it's not "closer" money, it will be more than he's worth to the Yankees. He will get a 3/33-36 deal somewhere.
Yeah, he might even be their 7th or 8th inning guy, but they've got five really good relievers already. The only factor that might come into play is that he grew up in NYC and has obviously played his whole career here, but I agree that he's likely gone.
We will miss the big guy. Even when he had the hiccups, walked the bases full, let runners run wild, Dellin was still pretty near unhittable. He could beat himself but he rarely got beat.