2019 Yankees Offseason Discussion

jon abbey

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Taking a quick shot at this:

Offer Didi the QO, hope he turns it down, but if he takes it, trade him.
Offer D’Arnaud 3/24 as time-splitting catcher.
Trade Gleyber for Lindor (maybe this needs to be balanced one way or the other but they were right next to each other on the Trade Value charts last summer and if anything, Gleyber should be ahead now).
Sign Cole for 8/248.
Trade Happ.
Let Chapman go if he opts out.
Let Betances go assuming he has a solid market, which he should.
Resign Gardner to 1/10.
Let Romine and Maybin go.
Extend DJ with 2/30 more, making his total remaining deal 3/42.

Sanchez/D’Arnaud (6/8)
Voit
LeMahieu (14)
Lindor (16.7)
Urshela (2)
Tauchman/Gardner (/10)
Hicks (10)
Judge (6)
Stanton (22)

Cole (31)
Paxton (13)
Tanaka (22)
Severino (10)
German

Loaisiga
Heller
Green (1.4)
Kahnle (3)
Ottavino (9)
Britton (13)

Add in Ellsbury at 22, and I have it around $219M. Add the $17M for player benefits/40 man and it's probably still under $248M, with $57M to Paxton, Tanaka and Ellsbury coming off after 2020, hopefully replacing the pitchers internally (Garcia/Schmidt/Medina/Gil etc.).

Also, if they could trade Stanton (Dodgers?), Andujar and Ford and Frazier are all very cheap DH candidates already on the 40 man.
 

jon abbey

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Also, FWIW, Lindor and Urshela are best buddies going back to 2011 Indians instructional league and still text each other most days.

"It was a Friday last May, not long after his baseball life veered adrift, and Gio Urshela saw a familiar name pop up on his phone. It was not weird that Francisco Lindor was texting. The two are best friends. The relationship dates back to the Cleveland Indians’ instructional league in 2011, when Lindor was a smiley 17-year-old from Puerto Rico and Urshela was a quiet 20-year-old from Colombia and the only thing that mattered were the long hangs in a connecting room inside a short-term housing unit in Arizona.

Urshela gravitated toward Lindor because he was competitive and kind. Lindor likes Urshela because he was genuine and low-key. The bond was instant and tight. “I liked the way he see the world,” Urshela said.

Seven years later, they were still texting most days."

"This is not to say that Urshela has stopped leaning on Lindor. They remain close as ever. They spend offseasons in Florida. They vacation together."

 

bluefenderstrat

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Stanton certainly looks like a trade candidate, although his value is probably at a near term low. Maybe they pay some of his salary if it improves the return.
 

BaseballJones

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It would be so crazy for some team to trade for Stanton with the Yankees subsidizing half of what they owe him, which is, what, half of what the Marlins owed him? Meaning some team could theoretically have Stanton for several more years at like $7-8 million per season?
 

bankshot1

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If my fingers and toes are correct, the Ys owe Stanton 8/238 (less $30M from the Marlins if he does not opt out after 2020). That's a lot of dough for a seemingly injury prone 30 YO who seems destined to be a DH in the near future. Its not a Miggy Cabrera bad contract, but IMO the Ys are going to have to eat a lot of it to move him.

But its been pretty clear for at least a three years that the real Achilles heel of the Ys was quality top of the rotation starting pitching.

So they'll probably get another RH power bat.
 

crow216

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If my fingers and toes are correct, the Ys owe Stanton 8/238 (less $30M from the Marlins if he does not opt out after 2020). That's a lot of dough for a seemingly injury prone 30 YO who seems destined to be a DH in the near future. Its not a Miggy Cabrera bad contract, but IMO the Ys are going to have to eat a lot of it to move him.

But its been pretty clear for at least a three years that the real Achilles heel of the Ys was quality top of the rotation starting pitching.

So they'll probably get another RH power bat.
The AAV is probably what matters, and the luxury tax hit is $22.5M. Not bad. Stanton is not injury prone, but I am definitely a little worried that this year could potentially be trend setting in such a way that they DH him more. If he's healthy though, he's a good enough defender and starts LF every day. I think he's probably very tradeable but I truly don't know how Cashman approaches this. I don't think he wants to be traded again after the Jeter debacle.

Pitching wise, Cole is the obvious target but this was a really unusual postseason. Despite the fact that they pitched really well, including the ALCS, we were STILL missing Betances and German.
 

EvilEmpire

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I don't think you trade low on Stanton this year. Maybe he doesn't fit on the team longterm, but you give it next year to see if he stays healthy and what he can do. The AAV is good if he has a typical year commensurate with his talent.
 

bankshot1

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He can opt out after 2020, (presumably only if he has a great year-to boost his future earnings over the $29-32M PY he's due in 2021-27) so for any team trading for him today has to view him as a 1-year rental. I don't think there's a lot of value coming back on those terms for a DH.
 

sean1562

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i dont see who would trade for Didi at 17 mil a year. What contender needs a middle infielder at that price? What team would be a realistic trade destination for Stanton? I cant think of many teams that would be clamoring for that deal
 
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I don't think you trade low on Stanton this year. Maybe he doesn't fit on the team longterm, but you give it next year to see if he stays healthy and what he can do. The AAV is good if he has a typical year commensurate with his talent.
I've posted this before, but there is no such thing as trading someone low or high as everyone has the same information. If he is hindered by injuries again next year, his value will decrease further and a 40+ homer year will increase it.

I would give the the possibility of more injuries a lot of weight and would want a huge discount off of his contracted salary.
 

Wingack

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I don't know what is going to happen but I think it is going to be a wild offseason.

Hopefully Cash can find the pitching version of DJ LaMaheiu out there.
 

Wingack

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Taking a quick shot at this:

Offer Didi the QO, hope he turns it down, but if he takes it, trade him.
Offer D’Arnaud 3/24 as time-splitting catcher.
Trade Gleyber for Lindor (maybe this needs to be balanced one way or the other but they were right next to each other on the Trade Value charts last summer and if anything, Gleyber should be ahead now).
Sign Cole for 8/248.
Trade Happ.
Let Chapman go if he opts out.
Let Betances go assuming he has a solid market, which he should.
Resign Gardner to 1/10.
Let Romine and Maybin go.
Extend DJ with 2/30 more, making his total remaining deal 3/42.

Sanchez/D’Arnaud (6/8)
Voit
LeMahieu (14)
Lindor (16.7)
Urshela (2)
Tauchman/Gardner (/10)
Hicks (10)
Judge (6)
Stanton (22)

Cole (31)
Paxton (13)
Tanaka (22)
Severino (10)
German

Loaisiga
Heller
Green (1.4)
Kahnle (3)
Ottavino (9)
Britton (13)

Add in Ellsbury at 22, and I have it around $219M. Add the $17M for player benefits/40 man and it's probably still under $248M, with $57M to Paxton, Tanaka and Ellsbury coming off after 2020, hopefully replacing the pitchers internally (Garcia/Schmidt/Medina/Gil etc.).

Also, if they could trade Stanton (Dodgers?), Andujar and Ford and Frazier are all very cheap DH candidates already on the 40 man.
Trading Torres seems insane.
 

IpswichSox

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Trade Gleyber Torres for Fransico Lindor?

I understand why Cleveland would want to do that, but why would the Yankees? Isn't Torres exactly the kind of salary-efficient player NY needs now to accomplish the other objectives you outlined? He's under team control for another season, isn't arb-eligible until 2021 and free agent-eligible until 2025, according to baseballreference. Torres will probably make less than $800k next year; Lindor could make $16.7 million in 2020.

I don't get that.
 

jon abbey

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No, Gleyber was adequate at SS defensively, I just really like Lindor but I agree it probably doesn't make that much sense, especially if they end up spending elsewhere. Also I thought Gleyber was under contract for 4 more years, not 5.
 

jon abbey

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Also I didn't expect all the talk to be about Stanton, I don't think he has to be traded, just that he'd be more valuable to other teams since NY has 3-4 (4 if they bring back Gardner) better defensive OFs now. I definitely don't think they would swallow any money to do it, and I think it's unlikely unless the Dodgers (who have a fan base desperate for a BIG MOVE) want him.
 

jon abbey

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Don't you think LeMahieu could get more than 2/$30 after next year if he didn't extend?
If he is really good again, maybe, but he just got 2/24 in free agency for his 31/32 year old seasons, so this would be a raise for his 33/34 seasons. This would give him some security at a pretty uncertain financial time in the sport overall.
 

Wingack

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I think Stanton just serves as the primary DH.

I’ll be most curious to see what the Yankees do with two pieces: Clint Frazier and Miguel Andujar (who could also be a DH).
 

terrynever

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What is a realistic target date for each of the emerging young pitching prospects? Deivy Garcia by July 2020? Clark Schmidt, etc., will follow, year by year.
I wish the Yanks would stay committed to a realistic payroll plan. Red Sox fans are a bit confused by the financial goals of their owners. I feel the same way about Hal. Under the cap one year, then talk about $30M annually for a pitcher very near 30, a max effort delivery guy. Stick with Seve, German, Tanaka, Deivy, Happ until he collapses. Pitching is not what separated the Yankees from Houston. They couldn’t hit the elite guys.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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If he is really good again, maybe, but he just got 2/24 in free agency for his 31/32 year old seasons, so this would be a raise for his 33/34 seasons. This would give him some security at a pretty uncertain financial time in the sport overall.
The age thing is important, but he's coming off of the best season of his career, and he was productive in the playoffs, too.

Of course he's only had 2 years with an OPS+ over 93, so who knows what he really is
 

jon abbey

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What is a realistic target date for each of the emerging young pitching prospects? Deivy Garcia by July 2020? Clark Schmidt, etc., will follow, year by year.
I wish the Yanks would stay committed to a realistic payroll plan. Red Sox fans are a bit confused by the financial goals of their owners. I feel the same way about Hal. Under the cap one year, then talk about $30M annually for a pitcher very near 30, a max effort delivery guy. Stick with Seve, German, Tanaka, Deivy, Happ until he collapses. Pitching is not what separated the Yankees from Houston. They couldn’t hit the elite guys.
No one from NY is talking about Cole, that is just media and fan wishful thinking. The financial objectives of NY since 2016 have been 1) get under the $189M line once and reset the tax rate (successfully done in 2018) and 2) stay under the top tax line ($248M next year) if possible because there are draft penalties past that.

You can add Paxton and Jordan Montgomery to your above list, NY has a very full rotation already for next year, but Paxton/Tanaka/Happ all expire after 2020.
 

terrynever

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Also I didn't expect all the talk to be about Stanton, I don't think he has to be traded, just that he'd be more valuable to other teams since NY has 3-4 (4 if they bring back Gardner) better defensive OFs now. I definitely don't think they would swallow any money to do it, and I think it's unlikely unless the Dodgers (who have a fan base desperate for a BIG MOVE) want him.
I hope Tauchman replaces Gardner. If Brett wants to keep playing, he will have some takers.
 

jon abbey

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Dunno, it would be a blow to lose both CC and Gardner as team leaders in the same year, especially after Gardner just had such a good season. They can keep Tauchman and Gardner both if Stanton is the DH, pretty sure that is what will happen.
 

terrynever

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No one from NY is talking about Cole, that is just media and fan wishful thinking. The financial objectives of NY since 2016 have been 1) get under the $189M line once and reset the tax rate (successfully done in 2018) and 2) stay under the top tax line ($248M next year) if possible because there are draft penalties past that.

You can add Paxton and Jordan Montgomery to your above list, NY has a very full rotation already for next year, but Paxton/Tanaka/Happ all expire after 2020.
Okay. Staying under $248M is a logical goal for this franchise.
Forgot Paxton. He’s only the ace! Maybe the kid pitchers start coming in 2021. They all need strong minor league seasons next year. And Deivy could get there first.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Despite the loss, it's good to be the Yankees right now. Even more than the Astros, they've got a good 4+ years ahead of them- lots of very good cost-controlled guys, tradeable talent at all levels and likely will be adding Cole.... I meant WILL be adding Cole. They're the immediate favorites to get to the WS, and the shift of Cole from Houston to NY will possibly push Houston below Oakland for dominance in the West.
I get what terrynever is saying but the Yankees are, like the Sox, a team that won't stand long while a new pitching talent adjusts to the competition at the ML level. They'll go for The Sure Thing- which is Cole, likely deal Happ and bring up one of the young guys at the back end of the order. The offense struggled against great pitching... every team does that. The Yankees offense is loaded and there's no sure thing to add offensively that would guarantee production against great pitching. Cole will be the best available piece out there.
 

jon abbey

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I get what terrynever is saying but the Yankees are, like the Sox, a team that won't stand long while a new pitching talent adjusts to the competition at the ML level. They'll go for The Sure Thing- which is Cole, likely deal Happ and bring up one of the young guys at the back end of the order.
If they sign Cole and deal Happ, there would be no room in the big league rotation (barring inevitable injuries):

Cole
Paxton
Tanaka
Severino
German

With Montgomery, King, Deivi waiting in AAA, this is a loaded rotation. It also wouldn't necessarily impede the young pitchers much because Tanaka and Paxton are both FAs after 2020, so NY could reload from within behind Cole/Severino/German in 2021.

I stil don't really believe NY will be the high bidder on Cole, but we'll see.
 

EvilEmpire

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I think improving the top-end talent in the rotation should be a goal, and Cole makes sense. Maybe more for strengthening the rotation after 2020 and beyond than next year.
 

RedOctober3829

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I think improving the top-end talent in the rotation should be a goal, and Cole makes sense. Maybe more for strengthening the rotation after 2020 and beyond than next year.
If I were a Yankee fan that's what I'd be wanting them to do the most. They've got enough depth guys. The difference in this series other than the bats going cold for much of the series was the Astros being able to rely on their starters to go deeper into the game.
 

luckiestman

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I would love an appointment TV starting pitcher. Don’t feel like we have had one of those guys in a long time.

Like Tanaka, liked Wang, liked Moose when he had his curve ball going. Really want to see a guy like King Felix, Liriano (pre injury), or Santana.
 

jon abbey

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A 34 year old SP on a 3/93 deal who has allowed over 1.000 OPS in each of the past four years at Yankee Stadium. 39.1 innings in 8 starts, 42 ERs allowed.
 

bankshot1

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IMO the more interesting and pertinent part of the Sherman column, other than treating the Tribe as it were the '50 Athletics, (tho they might be) and trading 3 nickels for Lindor, which Sherman refers to as a pipe dream, were topics already touched on here,

"I think it is a legitimate question to ask if the Yanks can win a title with Sanchez behind the plate. And trading for Stanton — a George Steinbrenner-esque move, by the way — is going to be the biggest problem of this Yankees era. He has eight years and $244 million left, can’t stay healthy, can’t hit high-end pitching, and because of that and his no-trade clause he is borderline impossible to move. Does that contract either 1) scare the Yanks from another long commitment and/or 2) complicate adding another big deal and meeting whatever payroll mandate Hal Steinbrenner imposes?"
 

EvilEmpire

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I would love an appointment TV starting pitcher. Don’t feel like we have had one of those guys in a long time.

Like Tanaka, liked Wang, liked Moose when he had his curve ball going. Really want to see a guy like King Felix, Liriano (pre injury), or Santana.
CC, when he was young and strong and physically sound.
 

RedOctober3829

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A 34 year old SP on a 3/93 deal who has allowed over 1.000 OPS in each of the past four years at Yankee Stadium. 39.1 innings in 8 starts, 42 ERs allowed.
Obviously would not be facing the Yankees lineup so those numbers are pretty useless. I would think the Yankees would not have any sort of interest in Price because of the money owed, but I actually think that Price would do OK if his home park was YS.
 

jon abbey

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Obviously would not be facing the Yankees lineup so those numbers are pretty useless. I would think the Yankees would not have any sort of interest in Price because of the money owed, but I actually think that Price would do OK if his home park was YS.
I do not think he would start in their rotation based on pure current talent, I have very little respect for current David Price. He was amazing in 2015 down the stretch, though.
 

jon abbey

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"I think it is a legitimate question to ask if the Yanks can win a title with Sanchez behind the plate. And trading for Stanton — a George Steinbrenner-esque move, by the way — is going to be the biggest problem of this Yankees era. He has eight years and $244 million left, can’t stay healthy, can’t hit high-end pitching, and because of that and his no-trade clause he is borderline impossible to move. Does that contract either 1) scare the Yanks from another long commitment and/or 2) complicate adding another big deal and meeting whatever payroll mandate Hal Steinbrenner imposes?"
The number that matters with Stanton is the $22M AAV, so essentially his current deal is 8/176. Also he played 159 and 158 games the two seasons before this one.
 

EvilEmpire

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Sanchez had a rough ALCS, but he's young, cheap, under team control for a while, improved behind the plate this year, and remains a great offensive player, especially from the catcher position.

The Yankees have lots of areas to improve, but other than having a good defensive backup catcher, catching is not something I'm worried about.
 

jon abbey

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And NY has gotten very close to the WS twice with Sanchez catching, they just outpitched a superb HOU staff this series with him behind the plate for the entire thing. He had some bad plays the last few games, so did LeMahieu, so did Gleyber.

Edit: Crosspost with EE, no one is saying Sanchez doesn't have flaws but wow do people love to talk about them.
 

jon abbey

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Career numbers for perspective:

Sanchez: 105 HRs in 1393 ABs
Judge: 110 HRs in 1417 ABs
 

jon abbey

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If he doesn't he may face a strike year free agency
Wouldn't that be a good thing? No one gets paid during a strike, and he would be able to negotiate his next deal under the new CBA, which presumably will be more player friendly.

I think he'll opt out, though, unless he really wants to stay in NY. They could try extending him a year to keep from opting out, but not sure they'll do that.
 

crow216

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And NY has gotten very close to the WS twice with Sanchez catching, they just outpitched a superb HOU staff this series with him behind the plate for the entire thing. He had some bad plays the last few games, so did LeMahieu, so did Gleyber.

Edit: Crosspost with EE, no one is saying Sanchez doesn't have flaws but wow do people love to talk about them.
I tried this already. It's not worth arguing about it.
 

crow216

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Wouldn't that be a good thing? No one gets paid during a strike, and he would be able to negotiate his next deal under the new CBA, which presumably will be more player friendly.

I think he'll opt out, though, unless he really wants to stay in NY. They could try extending him a year to keep from opting out, but not sure they'll do that.
Well, my point is the unknown re: the CBA. But as a relief pitcher who is known for his velocity, I don't think his value could possibly be higher next year than it is right now. He had a stellar year, doesn't have a ton of mileage on his arm, and is still throwing lightning bolts. In addition, lot of teams need a closer right now. It would be the ultimate Metsian move. Oh god, I would LOVE for the Mets to sign AC.