2019 Week 7 Pre-Game Thread: Jets

SMU_Sox

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Analyzing this game and thinking the Pats will win for a host of reasons is perfectly valid.

Citing Vegas is silly. Dallas was -7
So citing the -9.5 spread by the industry that sets the spread and has gotten really good at it is silly? And you base this, in part, on one game...Dallas winning last week? Hey Luckiest, what would you put the spread at? Care to make a charitable bet on it based on what you think the spread should be? I'm your huckleberry.

FWIW (not much) FO's has the spread at also exactly 9.5. Point there is that it is a somewhat reasonable spread which is an indication of what the game should be decided by.

My point is more that Vegas is playing the public and most of the public looks at Jets at 1-4 and sees a team that is shit. It is not the same team with Sam and CJ (if he plays, I haven’t heard yet). Jets were slamming Buff until Mosley got hurt and even with that only lost because they had a kicker that retired the next day.

The Pats should still win. The Pats will make the AFC Championship game unless something weird happens and probably win that.

I admit I am probably going to be wrong on Darnold. He's looked in his limited time a lot better than I anticipated this year. His mechanics are much better and you don't see the awkward footing as much. That being said I don't think your corners, edge rushers, or LBs (pending health) are that great which is 3/5ths of the defense.

Let's make this fun? I don't have a huge stack to toss around but if you're feeling it let's wager $25-50 to charity.
 

j44thor

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I'll over simplify, but BB, and old Brady with extra rest and prep time. Sign me up for the Pats looking better than the previous week.
Normally I'd agree but they could be going into the game with Jules/Jakobi/Gunner and no fullbacks.
Where is Burkhead? He could be a key to this game. Don't see how they can run a power game without a real FB and Burkhead has looked much better than Michel running out of weak sets.
 

InstaFace

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Sour grapes by Thomas. He's lucky to even have a job right now.
I mean, he's right, we did waste his time. But it's a business, and he needs to understand it as such. If AB hadn't gotten released, he'd probably still be on the roster here, maybe even contributing. And you can't complain too much, from a football perspective, about being booted aside in favor of one of the best receivers in the game.

I don't see his tone from the quotes as sour grapes though. Circumstances conspired to, effectively, waste his time. He doesn't appear to hold a grudge against the coaches, nor should he. But if he did, it'd be a good week for him to channel that, wouldn't it? Our heroes are fueled by far thinner slights.
 

tims4wins

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Was it really a waste of his time, when he was able to put that 3rd preseason game on film? Without that, he may be out of a job right now.
 

reggiecleveland

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Was it really a waste of his time, when he was able to put that 3rd preseason game on film? Without that, he may be out of a job right now.
Exactly. I coached in a summer pro hoops league this summer. Some of the guys had been good g-league players, even one former NBA guy, and those guys mostly wanted to show they were healthy. Younger guys trying to prove they have improved etc, really wanted shots, playing time etc. But, the guys with the best resume mostly wanted to a few games where they showed they still had it, or were healthy. As is par for this type of league some of the best guys moved on after getting the offers they wanted.
 

kenneycb

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Was it really a waste of his time, when he was able to put that 3rd preseason game on film? Without that, he may be out of a job right now.
Exactly. I coached in a summer pro hoops league this summer. Some of the guys had been good g-league players, even one former NBA guy, and those guys mostly wanted to show they were healthy. Younger guys trying to prove they have improved etc, really wanted shots, playing time etc. But, the guys with the best resume mostly wanted to a few games where they showed they still had it, or were healthy. As is par for this type of league some of the best guys moved on after getting the offers they wanted.
Again, he never said his initial stint in the preseason was a waste of time. He said the second go around, when he re-signed after getting cut at the end of the preseason, was a waste of time. Which it was for him. He didn't get into a game, probably barely practiced, and was cast aside for AB after getting the impression that he was going to be a part of the offense.
 

luckiestman

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So citing the -9.5 spread by the industry that sets the spread and has gotten really good at it is silly? And you base this, in part, on one game...Dallas winning last week? Hey Luckiest, what would you put the spread at? Care to make a charitable bet on it based on what you think the spread should be? I'm your huckleberry.

FWIW (not much) FO's has the spread at also exactly 9.5. Point there is that it is a somewhat reasonable spread which is an indication of what the game should be decided by.




I admit I am probably going to be wrong on Darnold. He's looked in his limited time a lot better than I anticipated this year. His mechanics are much better and you don't see the awkward footing as much. That being said I don't think your corners, edge rushers, or LBs (pending health) are that great which is 3/5ths of the defense.

Let's make this fun? I don't have a huge stack to toss around but if you're feeling it let's wager $25-50 to charity.

How about a signature line bet in addition?

I've got the Jets +9.5 and 25 of your dollars going to Catholic Charities https://www.ccfairfield.org/donate/
 

pokey_reese

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Good that it looks like Dorsett is coming back, because it looks like Gordon isn't going to play (not on the practice field per Reiss, today)
 

BigSoxFan

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Let Gordon rest really until the Ravens game in a couple weeks.
I’d be tempted to give him until Week 11 after the bye given that Harry will be eligible for Week 9. I want Gordon as healthy as possible for the post-bye gauntlet.
 

E5 Yaz

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I’d be tempted to give him until Week 11 after the bye given that Harry will be eligible for Week 9. I want Gordon as healthy as possible for the post-bye gauntlet.
I would, too; but in the back of my mind, I remember that it was during the bye and downtime that he slipped last year. From the outside world, it seems as though he manages best when he's kept involved and busy
 

nattysez

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Oh, sweetie, what are ya doin'...

“Right now, we’re just missing Chris. Once all the guys are back together, I think we’re unstoppable as an offense — or we can be,” Darnold said, via ESPN.com. “It’s just up to us and how we execute. It’s really up to us how many points we score, I think.
 

BigJimEd

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Again, he never said his initial stint in the preseason was a waste of time. He said the second go around, when he re-signed after getting cut at the end of the preseason, was a waste of time. Which it was for him. He didn't get into a game, probably barely practiced, and was cast aside for AB after getting the impression that he was going to be a part of the offense.
It sounded pretty whiny to me. "Disrespectful", treated like a rookie. Get over yourself. Things change. The Pat's didn't know AB would be available. They saw an opportunity for an upgrade and went for it. That's business. It's not like Thomas had given them a bunch of years.
 

kenneycb

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It’s not a business for him. It’s his livelihood. And he felt like he got jerked around. He has all the reason to be pissed just as the Pats have all the reason to cut him without recourse. It’s not a binary, either/or thing.
 

tims4wins

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It’s not a business for him. It’s his livelihood. And he felt like he got jerked around. He has all the reason to be pissed just as the Pats have all the reason to cut him without recourse. It’s not a binary, either/or thing.
But he got traded. Not kicked to the curb.
 

SMU_Sox

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How about a signature line bet in addition?

I've got the Jets +9.5 and 25 of your dollars going to Catholic Charities https://www.ccfairfield.org/donate/
What would you want me to put in my signature?

It’s funny I went in thinking Vegas must know what they are doing to find that the scholarly research shows that isn’t the case (with football, not other sports). But part of the problem with what I read was not adjusting for point weight relativity and taking randomness into consideration. A touchdown and EP are 7 points. There is randomness when you deal with 8-12 drives a game. Combine that with higher points rewarded for scores and you get your chaos. There’s also no adjusting for month which I would imagine would be harder to peg right in the earlier months.

I’ll take $25 to the Jimmy Fund if I win.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Hmmm. Kalil out of practice with a shoulder issue:

 

DJnVa

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Same guys missing from practice today: Gordon, Lacosse, and Bennett.
 

SMU_Sox

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Great time to be riding Pats -9.5... would love it if half the offense was actually available this week.

I went on mybookie and I am seeing Pats -10.5. That’s rich to me. I’m tempted to personally take Jets +10.5. And done. Can screenshot you a PM of my bet for the Jets at +10.5 @luckiestman

Quick edit: I thought -9.5 was a fair if not great line before the injury news. I would not normally bet on what I think is a 50/50 bet. Here though if they are down so many weapons on offense I would imagine a fair line is -8.5 or -7.5. The +10.5 is now an attractive bet. It was always just business and not personal. I wager on the Patriots usually. Have made decent money on them this year too. I don’t think they have been on the wrong side of a teaser yet.
 
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k-factory

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One of these lists is a heck of a lot longer than the other:
 

luckiestman

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Great time to be riding Pats -9.5... would love it if half the offense was actually available this week.

I went on mybookie and I am seeing Pats -10.5. That’s rich to me. I’m tempted to personally take Jets +10.5. And done. Can screenshot you a PM of my bet for the Jets at +10.5 @luckiestman

Quick edit: I thought -9.5 was a fair if not great line before the injury news. I would not normally bet on what I think is a 50/50 bet. Here though if they are down so many weapons on offense I would imagine a fair line is -8.5 or -7.5. The +10.5 is now an attractive bet. It was always just business and not personal. I wager on the Patriots usually. Have made decent money on them this year too. I don’t think they have been on the wrong side of a teaser yet.

I may have mentioned that I once had a student from Gabon. She told me once when I got her excited about something that I was a Warlock. You betting on the Jesters makes me think she may have had a point.
 

Reverend

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One of these lists is a heck of a lot longer than the other:
I laughed out loud at this. Scrolling down the injury list was like the opening scene of Space Balls.
 

luckiestman

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I laughed out loud at this. Scrolling down the injury list was like the opening scene of Space Balls.



I haven’t loved the Jesters this much since Parcells was HC. We have some real characters throughout this entire organization.
 

SMU_Sox

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I may have mentioned that I once had a student from Gabon. She told me once when I got her excited about something that I was a Warlock. You betting on the Jesters makes me think she may have had a point.
I won’t be able to find it but I can remember the 2 times I put money on Pats Jets and both times it will be on the Jets as home dogs. I posted about it here too. Pats won but either the Jets covered or it was a push. The lines are not great this week for NFL games. It’s mid season. They are what you’d expect them to be. My point originally before I got distracted making bets this week was that the lines and Vegas are fair. The reason Vegas is better at predicting basketball final outcomes than football is the inherent small sample sizes and randomness in football vs basketball. In other news though college football lines look mighty tasty this week (PSU, Oregon, and SMU make me proud).

I’m a two beer atheist (agnostic) so I hate to break it to you about you not being a warlock and all... like I said earlier, it’s just business. A coincidence. Also, there is a chance to double up if Pats win exactly by 10. That’s the g-spot I wanna hit.
 

luckiestman

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I won’t be able to find it but I can remember the 2 times I put money on Pats Jets and both times it will be on the Jets as home dogs. I posted about it here too. Pats won but either the Jets covered or it was a push. The lines are not great this week for NFL games. It’s mid season. They are what you’d expect them to be. My point originally before I got distracted making bets this week was that the lines and Vegas are fair. The reason Vegas is better at predicting basketball final outcomes than football is the inherent small sample sizes and randomness in football vs basketball. In other news though college football lines look mighty tasty this week (PSU, Oregon, and SMU make me proud).

I’m a two beer atheist (agnostic) so I hate to break it to you about you not being a warlock and all... like I said earlier, it’s just business. A coincidence. Also, there is a chance to double up if Pats win exactly by 10. That’s the g-spot I wanna hit.

You don’t have to believe in Magic to be under a dark arts spell.

We both like the Jets, that’s what really matters.
 

InstaFace

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I haven’t loved the Jesters this much since Parcells was HC. We have some real characters throughout this entire organization.
I mean, if you're gonna make a mockery of the injury report by putting every hangnail in there, doing it against Belichick and the Patriots - who made a mockery of it for a full decade - is the right time to do so.
 

luckiestman

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I mean, if you're gonna make a mockery of the injury report by putting every hangnail in there, doing it against Belichick and the Patriots - who made a mockery of it for a full decade - is the right time to do so.

Belichick made this an art form. Unfortunately, Jets have a lot of real Oline problems. It was getting better but the LT is out and LG (who was a backup to start the season himself but has played great) left practice with neck injury today.
 

dcmissle

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Still no Gordon today.
Gordon is out. Injuries could cost them the game.

 

SeoulSoxFan

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Belichick made this an art form. Unfortunately, Jets have a lot of real Oline problems. It was getting better but the LT is out and LG (who was a backup to start the season himself but has played great) left practice with neck injury today.
Good thing Spleendid Sam is one of the better QBs when rushed. If he avoids turnovers, it will be a very close game.
 

Section30

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It's fun to surf the Jets fan sites right now. There are quite a few who are "certain" they will beat the Pats. With Mosley and possibly Herndon back for the game.

"If we had 11 L. Falk's in the line up I still would still pick my Jets. Dumb?? STUPID?? I don't give a shit I'm a Jet fan.."- Gang Green member with 2,000 posts.
 

BornToRun

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It's fun to surf the Jets fan sites right now. There are quite a few who are "certain" they will beat the Pats. With Mosley and possibly Herndon back for the game.

"If we had 11 L. Falk's in the line up I still would still pick my Jets. Dumb?? STUPID?? I don't give a shit I'm a Jet fan.."- Gang Green member with 2,000 posts.
It’s more fun to crush them when they have hope.
 

SMU_Sox

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Wasn’t Darnold’s rep at USC that he got super careless with the ball when under pressure and heaved a ton of picks?
You are correct. Rex Ryan would have hated him. He would plant his driving foot IIRC incorrectly too leading to a poor throw and interceptions. I wasn’t crazy about his decision making either. The thing with him though was that he was young and relatively inexperienced at the position so those flaws were thought to be more easily erased as they were not in place for 10-12+ years already.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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