2019 Rockets: China Hates Us

Big John

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Well, China is clearly practicing U.S. style capitalism, as is the rest of Asia. As for U.S. style democracy, even the U.S. isn't practicing it very well these days. Autocrats and would-be autocrats are doing well at the moment, thanks in part to the destabilization of the Mideast and Africa.
 

lexrageorge

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Well, China is clearly practicing U.S. style capitalism, as is the rest of Asia. As for U.S. style democracy, even the U.S. isn't practicing it very well these days. Autocrats and would-be autocrats are doing well at the moment, thanks in part to the destabilization of the Mideast and Africa.
The bolded is inaccurate. Capitalism? Yes. US style capitalism? Not even close.
 

Big John

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Sure, in China the government oversees the economy more closely, but that's form over substance, isn't it? What we have in both China and Russia these days is fascism: private ownership but de facto state control over the means of production and distribution. So, like the Krupps in Germany, to become inordinately wealthy you have to play ball with the powers that be. The software and investment businesses in the U.S. also have to play ball, but it's a somewhat different game.
 

lovegtm

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Sure, in China the government oversees the economy more closely, but that's form over substance, isn't it? What we have in both China and Russia these days is fascism: private ownership but de facto state control over the means of production and distribution. So, like the Krupps in Germany, to become inordinately wealthy you have to play ball with the powers that be. The software and investment businesses in the U.S. also have to play ball, but it's a somewhat different game.
Aren't you making lexrageorge's exact point?

Well, China is clearly practicing U.S. style capitalism, as is the rest of Asia. As for U.S. style democracy, even the U.S. isn't practicing it very well these days. Autocrats and would-be autocrats are doing well at the moment, thanks in part to the destabilization of the Mideast and Africa.
Again, it seems like you're violently agreeing with me here, in between moving the goalposts.

If the US itself is drifting away from what we think of as US-style democracy, and other parts of the world are going more autocratic, why on earth would we think that China is going to become more "open" or "democratic" simply because it has more money? The evidence strongly, strongly suggests that exactly the opposite has taken and is taking place.

To pull this back to the main topic: if you don't like the spread of the Chinese government's global influence (I don't), you can't sit back and expect historical processes to lower that influence, even if it's comforting to tell yourself that that will work.
 

Big John

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I don't expect China to become more open. I'm saying two things: (1) the more open China becomes, the richer it becomes. (2) the demonstrations in Hong Kong will continue until either the demonstrators get what they want or China engages in brutal, Tianamen Square-style repression with tanks, club wielding police and all the rest. If that happens, the spectacle will be broadcast around the globe via satellite.

China's knee-jerk reaction to Morey's tweet was a really dumb thing for China to do. They should have simply ignored it.
 

DrewDawg

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Wow.

At least five NBA teams are having their salary cap personnel plan for a scenario in which the cap for the 2020-21 season could drop between 10 and 15 percent due to the current situation between the NBA and China, league sources told Yahoo Sports.

 

benhogan

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Wow.




One team’s cap expert told Yahoo Sports: “I haven’t really been in this spot before. The cap has only gone up in recent years. It’s really different. I have to wonder if the league would be pressed to consider some measures to not drop the cap down so far from where we are today at $109 [million]. Otherwise, a bunch of us are over the tax. It’d be nice to know now, because that changes how we approach trades and everything else throughout the season.”

Doesn't sound like much of an "expert", if he doesn't have the optionality of the cap going lower in his model. "Markets only go higher" is reminiscent of the 2007 real estate bubble.

I continue to expect Danny to go to UFA with Jaylen Brown.
 
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Big John

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Dec 9, 2016
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LOL, the Lakers Nets game is still on. Were the Chinese expecting to profit themselves on their deal with the NBA or were they just handing out free money?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I'm shocked that the China money is that big a chunk of NBA revenue. Whether they actually lose it or not. Wow.
China is a massive market for the NBA.

The 2017 NBA Finals attracted nearly 200 million viewers from China on mobile alone.
The NBA is now the number one followed league in China online; seven times more discussed and with five times more followers than the top three European soccer leagues combined, Mailman reports.
I don't have the data but I also believe that Chinese television viewership of NBA games surpassed the U.S. over the past few years. This is a massive deal for the NBA and for China where its the most popular sport by a decent margin.
 

benhogan

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It amazes me how many people don't like Brown so much that even the stupid Chinagate turns into a reason to move on from him.
:rolleyes:

a lower salary cap means fewer teams will be able to bid for talent, right?

If anything it secures the Celtics chances of retaining Brown, which is a good thing.
 

benhogan

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Yes, I was playing 1D chess on that response. Please disregard.
no worries Jimmy.

I was more skeptical of the so-called NBA Exec cap expert and his naive comment.

I really like Jaylen Brown, he was much better after the first two months (injured hand?) last season. I was pretty critical of Brad for not playing him more down the stretch in lieu of MaMo. He appears to be unfazed by going to UFA and is focused on playing well this season.
 

lexrageorge

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One team’s cap expert told Yahoo Sports: “I haven’t really been in this spot before. The cap has only gone up in recent years. It’s really different. I have to wonder if the league would be pressed to consider some measures to not drop the cap down so far from where we are today at $109 [million]. Otherwise, a bunch of us are over the tax. It’d be nice to know now, because that changes how we approach trades and everything else throughout the season.”

Doesn't sound like much of an "expert", if he doesn't have the optionality of the cap going lower in his model. "Markets only go higher" is reminiscent of the 2007 real estate bubble.

I continue to expect Danny to go to UFA with Jaylen Brown.
The NBA's massive TV deal was announced in late 2014, and was put in place for the 2016-17 season. So, starting from around 2015, there was no realistic scenario where the league's salary cap would go down. Plus, by October, the league probably has a pretty good read on its revenues for the upcoming season, which is what sets the salary cap for the following one. Season ticket sales are locked in, overall ticket sales are probably known with reasonable certainty, local TV contracts are in place, and the retail outlets have already stocked up on the merchandise for the Christmas holiday season. Even a 2007 recession were to hit, there would be a lag before it affected league revenues, and even in that case, the cap gurus would simply redo their projections at that time. No real need to model something that is not even forecast.

So, I could believe this anonymous capologist never had to forecast a down year. Most probably came in after the recession (I get the feeling that turnover in those positions is fairly high).

It still seems unlikely. Silver is either on his way to Shanghai for his pre-planned visit or is already there. There is a lot at stake for both sides financially to work something out. While indeed a distinct possibility, China hasn't yet cancelled the NBA's TV contract with its Chinese broadcast partners. But I also would believe owners' wanting to fully understand the implications of a revenue drop in the event it does happen, as the probability is no longer zero.
 

benhogan

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The NBA's massive TV deal was announced in late 2014, and was put in place for the 2016-17 season. So, starting from around 2015, there was no realistic scenario where the league's salary cap would go down. Plus, by October, the league probably has a pretty good read on its revenues for the upcoming season, which is what sets the salary cap for the following one. Season ticket sales are locked in, overall ticket sales are probably known with reasonable certainty, local TV contracts are in place, and the retail outlets have already stocked up on the merchandise for the Christmas holiday season. Even a 2007 recession were to hit, there would be a lag before it affected league revenues, and even in that case, the cap gurus would simply redo their projections at that time. No real need to model something that is not even forecast.

So, I could believe this anonymous capologist never had to forecast a down year. Most probably came in after the recession (I get the feeling that turnover in those positions is fairly high).

It still seems unlikely. Silver is either on his way to Shanghai for his pre-planned visit or is already there. There is a lot at stake for both sides financially to work something out. While indeed a distinct possibility, China hasn't yet cancelled the NBA's TV contract with its Chinese broadcast partners. But I also would believe owners' wanting to fully understand the implications of a revenue drop in the event it does happen, as the probability is no longer zero.
I don't want to get stuck in the weeds of a 2-year trade dispute. YMMV on how that will work out, or how volatile that situation has been/will be. Any business that collects revenue from China should be factoring this in (ie Apple, GM, Starbucks, YUM, etc receive large amounts of revenue from China)

For clarity my bigger issue was this line form the NBA cap expert: It’d be nice to know now, because that changes how we approach trades and everything else throughout the season.”

The NBA exec would like to know NOW on how much they can budget 9 months ahead of when the cap is set. I'd love to know the exact earnings of any business 9 months ahead of time. But option time (theta), option volatility (delta), and counterparty risk need to be taken into account to project where revenues will be.
 

lexrageorge

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I don't want to get stuck in the weeds of a 2-year trade dispute. YMMV on how that will work out, or how volatile that situation has been/will be. Any business that collects revenue from China should be factoring this in (ie Apple, GM, Starbucks, YUM, etc receive large amounts of revenue from China)

For clarity my bigger issue was this line form the NBA cap expert: It’d be nice to know now, because that changes how we approach trades and everything else throughout the season.”

The NBA exec would like to know NOW on how much they can budget 9 months ahead of when the cap is set. I'd love to know the exact earnings of any business 9 months ahead of time. But option time (theta), option volatility (delta), and counterparty risk need to be taken into account to project where revenues will be.
My point is that variability is not something the NBA front offices normally deal with when it comes to the upcoming season's revenues. So, the front offices do normally have clarity at this point in the season, and can approach trades and the like with that clarity. The NBA is not a "normal" business like Apple or GM in that regards. The variability at this point in the season is normally very low.

And, I'm sure there are quite a few NBA owners want to know NOW what's going to happen with respect to the league's revenues in China, and I'm sure they are on the phone with Silver every day for that very reason.
 

lovegtm

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no worries Jimmy.

I was more skeptical of the so-called NBA Exec cap expert and his naive comment.

I really like Jaylen Brown, he was much better after the first two months (injured hand?) last season. I was pretty critical of Brad for not playing him more down the stretch in lieu of MaMo. He appears to be unfazed by going to UFA and is focused on playing well this season.
Just since this will come up a lot in Jaylen Brown discussions: it’s RFA, not UFA :)
 

Apisith

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China will have the world's largest retail market in around 5 years. Companies, if they are truly for maximizing shareholder wealth, will all want to be there. And the price that the CCP will charge is complete acquiescence to their ideology and their beliefs. The NBA is still somewhat beholden to American consumers, but other companies won't be. And when China has the world's largest retail market, companies will be beholden to Chinese consumers instead of Western ones. The danger right now is not that Chinese consumers lack information about Tianenmen Square or other problems, it is that they believe the government did the right thing and is responsible for how rich and well-off they are. You can't make this fight about information if the other side is not looking for new information. The world will have to adapt to Chinese consumers who love their country, believe that the CCP are good, and even if the CCP is bad, they're bad to foreigners, not to their own people. American politicians still treat China as if there's an underground resistance waiting to bubble over. See Chinese consumers respond to this NBA controversy and it's obvious. The government doesn't even need to guide their behavior, it's instinctive.

It is going to be a really difficult problem to solve. Every company will have an incentive to bend the knee to the CCP, but if every company does that, the Western world representing freedom of speech/liberty will end up importing Chinese beliefs. Companies need to stand together, but there's no way that this will happen without some coordination and probably coercion from governments. Governments will also have to stand together, because the CCP will pick the smallest ones and bully them to make an example (see: Canada).
 

benhogan

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My point is that variability is not something the NBA front offices normally deal with when it comes to the upcoming season's revenues. So, the front offices do normally have clarity at this point in the season, and can approach trades and the like with that clarity. The NBA is not a "normal" business like Apple or GM in that regards. The variability at this point in the season is normally very low.

And, I'm sure there are quite a few NBA owners want to know NOW what's going to happen with respect to the league's revenues in China, and I'm sure they are on the phone with Silver every day for that very reason.
100% agree the NBA Owners/front offices want to know NOW. Everyone wants to know now, but with every private/public business there can be revenue variability. The NBA has been in a 20yr upswing revenue-wise, as with every business there will be times when it regresses due to unforeseen events.

Let's circle back to how this relates to Jaylen Browns RFA (thanks lovegtm). I think Danny/Zarren are smart to go to RFA, instead of what the Denver Nuggets did with Jamal Murray. Especially if Jaylen isn't fazed or doesn't feel disrespected. (Unless Jaylen would be open to a Caris LaVert deal, which I don't think Brown would accept).

Between now and July 1, 2020 dozens of variabilities can rear their head that dictates how much teams will have or want to spend on talent. China (counterparty risk) cutting off, renegotiating or altering their agreement is just one of those variables. We can all dream up other scenarios where the team would be smart to wait until next year to commit to a long/large deal for players (injuries, underperformance, etc).

Maybe we are talking past each other and agree more than disagree. I don't want this to turn into "MLB player options provide value to teams" discussion.o_O
 

lexrageorge

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I agree that waiting on resigning Jaylen Brown makes a lot of sense. It even made a lot of sense before the China kerfuffle. It's difficult to price in Brown right now, and even he may be aware of that fact (albeit in a different direction). And there is really not much of a downside to waiting, as the Celtics will be able to match any offer he gets as an RFA should they choose.
 

oumbi

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The bolded is inaccurate. Capitalism? Yes. US style capitalism? Not even close.
Yes, LG, you are very correct. Capitalism has many forms. In much of East Asia they have adopted the Developmental State model. Read and enjoy!

View: https://www.amazon.com/Developmental-Cornell-Studies-Political-Economy/dp/0801485665



 

Doug Beerabelli

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China will have the world's largest retail market in around 5 years. Companies, if they are truly for maximizing shareholder wealth, will all want to be there. And the price that the CCP will charge is complete acquiescence to their ideology and their beliefs. The NBA is still somewhat beholden to American consumers, but other companies won't be. And when China has the world's largest retail market, companies will be beholden to Chinese consumers instead of Western ones. The danger right now is not that Chinese consumers lack information about Tianenmen Square or other problems, it is that they believe the government did the right thing and is responsible for how rich and well-off they are. You can't make this fight about information if the other side is not looking for new information. The world will have to adapt to Chinese consumers who love their country, believe that the CCP are good, and even if the CCP is bad, they're bad to foreigners, not to their own people. American politicians still treat China as if there's an underground resistance waiting to bubble over. See Chinese consumers respond to this NBA controversy and it's obvious. The government doesn't even need to guide their behavior, it's instinctive.

It is going to be a really difficult problem to solve. Every company will have an incentive to bend the knee to the CCP, but if every company does that, the Western world representing freedom of speech/liberty will end up importing Chinese beliefs. Companies need to stand together, but there's no way that this will happen without some coordination and probably coercion from governments. Governments will also have to stand together, because the CCP will pick the smallest ones and bully them to make an example (see: Canada).
Good thing most American consumers aren't giving access to their personal information to these companies that are soon to be completely beholden to the Chinese.

Oh wait...
 

Jimbodandy

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no worries Jimmy.

I was more skeptical of the so-called NBA Exec cap expert and his naive comment.

I really like Jaylen Brown, he was much better after the first two months (injured hand?) last season. I was pretty critical of Brad for not playing him more down the stretch in lieu of MaMo. He appears to be unfazed by going to UFA and is focused on playing well this season.
I wish that I had waited to post as the subsequent conversation further explained the point that you were making. Nice work by you and others who joined in.
 

benhogan

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I wish that I had waited to post as the subsequent conversation further explained the point that you were making. Nice work by you and others who joined in.
Well, I was pretty vocal about moving Jaylen this Summer for one of the Pacers BIGs (both of whom I like a lot) in a Fake Trade scenario, so I get the confusion. :drunk:
 

Jimbodandy

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Well, I was pretty vocal about moving Jaylen this Summer for one of the Pacers BIGs (both of whom I like a lot) in a Fake Trade scenario, so I get the confusion. :drunk:
It wasn't a BH hates JB reaction at all. Both of your target guys in Indiana are reasonable trades IMO. I'd trade him for Turner now, all things being equal.

It just seems like we have some kind of conversation about moving on from Jaylen for silly reasons more often than most guys. And I have had a long week. Wish I could claim drunk posting or something. Misread, but was reacting to the post, not the poster.
 

Ale Xander

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Nike pulls Rockets merchandise off Chinese shelves.

 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I am not sure you are the audience LeBron is worried about here.

The NBA is a business and China is one of its largest markets. IMHO, If Morey wanted to make a statement about the NBA effectively co-signing China's actions, he should have resigned his position in protest. Sending off a Tweet is essentially a half-step and he deserves some blowback for it.

Whether you agree with it or not, James is being smart about his business. Morey was not even if he has the moral high ground.
 

BigSoxFan

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LeBron is trying too hard to sound intellectual there. He has no idea how educated Daryl Morey was on the subject. He could have been incredibly educated and then made a rash decision to tweet. He also claims that Morey was thinking about himself. Perhaps he was, you know, thinking about the people in Hong Kong.

I get LeBron’s frustration because he probably has more to lose than any player but enough with the chickenshit “I don’t want to get into a feud BUT here I’m just going to trash the guy”.
 

luckiestman

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LeBron is trying too hard to sound intellectual there. He has no idea how educated Daryl Morey was on the subject. He could have been incredibly educated and then made a rash decision to tweet. He also claims that Morey was thinking about himself. Perhaps he was, you know, thinking about the people in Hong Kong.

I get LeBron’s frustration because he probably has more to lose than any player but enough with the chickenshit “I don’t want to get into a feud BUT here I’m just going to trash the guy”.

Imagine being filthy rich and caring so much about your marginal millions? I’m starting to wonder if sociopathy is a learned trait
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Exactly. He basically told Morey to shut up and model Excel. It was an obnoxious comment by LeBron.
But again - and I know that social media is the coin of the realm these days - Morey tweeted his views on HK/China. YRMV but I find taking stances via social media to be kind of weak. If Morey is that concerned, he should have done something more than go online.

James' response may not be great but Morey's initial decision was the problem. If any one of us posted something negative about one of our respective employers biggest customers, I suspect we'd be in a bigger world of hurt than Morey is right now. Getting shade from one our colleagues would be mild in comparison.
 

BigSoxFan

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But again - and I know that social media is the coin of the realm these days - Morey tweeted his views on HK/China. YRMV but I find taking stances via social media to be kind of weak. If Morey is that concerned, he should have done something more than go online.

James' response may not be great but Morey's initial decision was the problem. If any one of us posted something negative about one of our respective employers biggest customers, I suspect we'd be in a bigger world of hurt than Morey is right now. Getting shade from one our colleagues would be mild in comparison.
I am focusing solely on LeBron’s comment. I absolutely agree with Morey’s tweet being poorly thought out. I personally hate twitter and have never used it but I also found LeBron’s comment to be pretty insufferable. If he kept it at “actions have consequences”, I’d be ok with it. But condescendingly making assumptions about Morey’s level of education on the subject is where he lost me.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I am focusing solely on LeBron’s comment. I absolutely agree with Morey’s tweet being poorly thought out. I personally hate twitter and have never used it but I also found LeBron’s comment to be pretty insufferable. If he kept it at “actions have consequences”, I’d be ok with it. But condescendingly making assumptions about Morey’s level of education on the subject is where he lost me.
Fair enough and I agree that James' comments were unnecessarily pointed. However as was noted upthread, he has a significant amount of money to lose on the surface and its probably safe to assume that he has other financial interests that might be affected by China backing away from the NBA.

I want to be clear that I think supporting HK is important - but as we see around these parts time and again, words on some online platform don't really mean much.
 

luckiestman

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James' response may not be great but Morey's initial decision was the problem. If any one of us posted something negative about one of our respective employers biggest customers, I suspect we'd be in a bigger world of hurt than Morey is right now. Getting shade from one our colleagues would be mild in comparison.

Yes, that is a much larger societal problem.