2019 Pre-Game Thread: Week 6 vs Giants

DrewDawg

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Quick turnaround.

Pats are big favorites this week at -16.5 and are getting a rookie QB. Barkley likely still out and Gallman, who was decent last week, suffered a concussion and his status is in doubt. If we're going to have a short week, this is a team to have it against.

View: https://twitter.com/ZackCoxNESN/status/1181217499519574017




Fun stat: Patriots have scored 155 points. The other 3 AFC East teams have scored 155 points combined.
 
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SeoulSoxFan

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Jun 27, 2006
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They would have listed Evan Engram as a DNP if they practiced today with a knee injury.
No Engram, Shepard, nor Saquon would really help, whether this defense needs it or not.

The Sunday shows had clips of the talented RB doing quick cuts and running drills. I would not have guessed he had a high ankle sprain.
 

j44thor

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No Engram, Shepard, nor Saquon would really help, whether this defense needs it or not.

The Sunday shows had clips of the talented RB doing quick cuts and running drills. I would not have guessed he had a high ankle sprain.
If Saquon is healthy might be good for Pats D to face an RB of his caliber given the only cracks this D has shown have been on the ground.
 

wilked

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All that noise about the Pats having the easiest early schedule in recent memory.... Hard to argue against it

Week 10 (Ravens) really will be the first time they play a complete team (Buff had the D but not the O)
 

tims4wins

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All that noise about the Pats having the easiest early schedule in recent memory.... Hard to argue against it

Week 10 (Ravens) really will be the first time they play a complete team (Buff had the D but not the O)
Define complete. The Ravens are giving up more YPG and the same PPG as the Browns.
 

Silverdude2167

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Define complete. The Ravens are giving up more YPG and the same PPG as the Browns.
Also maybe we should re-evaluate the Ravens as a whole.

Take out the Miami game and their offense is averaging 25.5 points a game...so that would put them at 11th in the league.
To be fair if we did the same thing with the Pats they would drop to 28 points a game and which would by 6th in the league.

Looking at points given up the Ravens are allowing 29.75 points excluding the Miami game which would be 29th in the league
For the Pats, it would be 8.5 excluding the Miami game which would be...

So I am starting to think the Ravens are getting overrated based on opening against Miami and they probably should be 1-3 since then, but were barely able to win vs the Steelers 3rd string QB.
 

Ralphwiggum

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No really relevant to this week's game, but as we track the unbeatens this will start to get interesting to track:

View: https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/1181432583650983939?s=20

So, to sum up the top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings:
1) New England is the 5th best team ever measured through 5 games.
2) San Francisco is the 6th best team ever measured through 4 games.
3) NE/SF are both 30 percentage points ahead of the rest of the NFL right now
 

j44thor

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I'm having a hard time understanding the -17 line on this one.
Excluding @BUF which most thought would be a tough game NE has blown out everyone. They would be 4-1 ATS if it weren't for 2 defensive TDs by NYJ. This defense doesn't play prevent and doesn't like to give up first downs let points. The offense still needs to figure some things out so they aren't likely to be sitting back either.

I'd expect the line to be closer to 20 given all the injuries NYG have. 17 seems like a safe line if they were near full strength.

Is it just a Thursday thing? I'd also expect that to favor NE since NYG are going to be starting guys with virtually no practice reps at TE/RB/WR.
 

TFisNEXT

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I'm having a hard time understanding the -17 line on this one.
Excluding @BUF which most thought would be a tough game NE has blown out everyone. They would be 4-1 ATS if it weren't for 2 defensive TDs by NYJ. This defense doesn't play prevent and doesn't like to give up first downs let points. The offense still needs to figure some things out so they aren't likely to be sitting back either.

I'd expect the line to be closer to 20 given all the injuries NYG have. 17 seems like a safe line if they were near full strength.

Is it just a Thursday thing? I'd also expect that to favor NE since NYG are going to be starting guys with virtually no practice reps at TE/RB/WR.
Weather could play a factor too...not sure if that's affecting the line or not. But there could be a nasty nor' easter type storm with rain/wind during the game.

But yeah, I agree that you'd expect the line to be in the 20s. The Giants are fucking terrible...esp without their top offensive weapons. Their defense is still horrendous regardless of what is going on about the offense.
 

lexrageorge

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I'm having a hard time understanding the -17 line on this one.
Excluding @BUF which most thought would be a tough game NE has blown out everyone. They would be 4-1 ATS if it weren't for 2 defensive TDs by NYJ. This defense doesn't play prevent and doesn't like to give up first downs let points. The offense still needs to figure some things out so they aren't likely to be sitting back either.

I'd expect the line to be closer to 20 given all the injuries NYG have. 17 seems like a safe line if they were near full strength.

Is it just a Thursday thing? I'd also expect that to favor NE since NYG are going to be starting guys with virtually no practice reps at TE/RB/WR.
The Pats have 3 WR's listed on the injury report, one of whom (Dorsett) is listed as Did Not Practice. So the big guns in Vegas are probably predicting a low scoring game, which makes it difficult to justify a 3-score spread. And the weather will likely be a factor; both teams may be going for it on 4th down inside the 35.
 

lexrageorge

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Also, not sure if this is at all a factor in setting the betting line, but the Pats and Giants have always played close during the Brady/Belichick era. Margin of victory/loss going from most recent (2015) to oldest (2003):

+1, -4, -4, -3, +3, +11
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Honestly, all the talk of an easy schedule needs to be viewed through the lens that the current state of the NFL is that too many teams are garbage.
 

E5 Yaz

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Honestly, all the talk of an easy schedule needs to be viewed through the lens that the current state of the NFL is that too many teams are garbage.
There's truth in this, but until the Patriots do this against the Eagles, Cowboys, Chiefs or Texans, the easy schedule narrative will be repeated
 

RedOctober3829

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Brady 8-0 career on TNF + Thanksgiving - aka 3 day weeks (not banner opening games, true TNF).
Working off of this primetime stat, the Patriots are going to be either in primetime or national TV from Week 6 until Week 15. Their next 1 pm Sunday game is not until December 15th.
Week 6 TNF vs. Giants
Week 7 MNF at Jets
Week 8 4:25 national vs. Browns
Week 9 SNF at Ravens
Week 10 bye
Week 11 4:25 national at Eagles
Week 12 4:25 national vs. Cowboys
Week 13 SNF at Texans
Week 14 4:25 national vs. Chiefs
 

BigSoxFan

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Working off of this primetime stat, the Patriots are going to be either in primetime or national TV from Week 6 until Week 15. Their next 1 pm Sunday game is not until December 15th.
Week 6 TNF vs. Giants
Week 7 MNF at Jets
Week 8 4:25 national vs. Browns
Week 9 SNF at Ravens
Week 10 bye
Week 11 4:25 national at Eagles
Week 12 4:25 national vs. Cowboys
Week 13 SNF at Texans
Week 14 4:25 national vs. Chiefs
As someone living in NJ, this is awesome for me.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Working off of this primetime stat, the Patriots are going to be either in primetime or national TV from Week 6 until Week 15. Their next 1 pm Sunday game is not until December 15th.
Week 6 TNF vs. Giants
Week 7 MNF at Jets
Week 8 4:25 national vs. Browns
Week 9 SNF at Ravens
Week 10 bye
Week 11 4:25 national at Eagles
Week 12 4:25 national vs. Cowboys
Week 13 SNF at Texans
Week 14 4:25 national vs. Chiefs
With the caveat that many of those games could theoretically be flexed to different starting times (Browns game in particular is one that may get switched out for another game if the Browns continue to suck)...that's incredible.
 

Seels

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Also, not sure if this is at all a factor in setting the betting line, but the Pats and Giants have always played close during the Brady/Belichick era. Margin of victory/loss going from most recent (2015) to oldest (2003):

+1, -4, -4, -3, +3, +11
Coughlin isn't there anymore.

I'm going to this game -- first time in a few years. What's a normal type to get to a Thursday night game?
 

Al Zarilla

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Working off of this primetime stat, the Patriots are going to be either in primetime or national TV from Week 6 until Week 15. Their next 1 pm Sunday game is not until December 15th.
Week 6 TNF vs. Giants
Week 7 MNF at Jets
Week 8 4:25 national vs. Browns
Week 9 SNF at Ravens
Week 10 bye
Week 11 4:25 national at Eagles
Week 12 4:25 national vs. Cowboys
Week 13 SNF at Texans
Week 14 4:25 national vs. Chiefs
Sure am glad I bought Sunday Ticket. Actually, there are enough games I don’t get in CA, like most of Pats vs. Jets, Dolphins, Bills, Skins type games to justify it for me, plus Packers, Rams and other games I like to watch that I may not get. It’s only money, and as long as B&B are doing their thing, I’m not missing any games.
 

RedOctober3829

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With the caveat that many of those games could theoretically be flexed to different starting times (Browns game in particular is one that may get switched out for another game if the Browns continue to suck)...that's incredible.
They aren't losing any SNF games. Only one I can see being flexed to SNF is Pats/Eagles. Bears at Rams is currently the SNF game and could get moved if one or both fall off between now and November 5th when they have to announce a Week 11 flex.
 

Cotillion

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Jun 11, 2019
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Wasn't there like you only got 4 or 5 national game cap at some point.

Are the Pats already capped on max Primetime games and does that get taken into account for Flexes? Can you get an "extra" one on a flex (like the 4th charged injury TO)?
 

Mystic Merlin

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I believe the absolute cap on prime time games per team is six. The Pats currently have five.

The other networks (FOX and CBS) also get to exempt one game per week from Weeks 11 through 16 from being flexed. It’s hard to see CBS picking a game other than Pats-Eagles or FOX picking a game other than Pats-Cowboys. And it’s not even worth discussing Pats-Chiefs absent an asteroid incinerating one or both teams since that may be CBS’ marquee regular season game of the year.

The Buffalo game in Week 16 isn’t scheduled yet. That could be the Saturday night game.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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FWIW, 538.com has NE the heaviest favorite out of all week 6 games at -15 point spread and 90% win probability:


P. S. Ravens are favored by -10.5 vs Bengals while Chiefs are -5.5 vs Texans.
 

pokey_reese

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Honestly, all the talk of an easy schedule needs to be viewed through the lens that the current state of the NFL is that too many teams are garbage.
From the Football Outsiders latest DVOA update, they are also having a hard time figuring out how much to trust this start for the defense:
It's certainly reasonable to believe that this year's Patriots schedule is so extreme that there's no way we can measure it correctly, even if we apply our usual opponent adjustments. Part of the problem is just how bad Miami is. Overall, the Patriots have played the offenses ranked 26, 28, 30, 31, and 32.
 

DrewDawg

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From the Football Outsiders latest DVOA update, they are also having a hard time figuring out how much to trust this start for the defense:
Part of that is that each of those teams has 20% of their schedule against THE GREATEST DEFENSE OF ALL TIME
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Not a lot of playmakers left on that offense... Feels like a lot of banged-up players on the Pats side might be able to take another week to get healthy...
Also, Solder has admitted recently that he needs to play better.

In the excellent Scho Show Podcast (by our own Mark Schofield) the Giants expert Patricia Traina mentioned Solder had gotten off to a slow start, like he was said to do when with New England. It's a terrific listen:

 

Dernells Casket n Flagon

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From the Football Outsiders latest DVOA update, they are also having a hard time figuring out how much to trust this start for the defense:

It's certainly reasonable to believe that this year's Patriots schedule is so extreme that there's no way we can measure it correctly, even if we apply our usual opponent adjustments. Part of the problem is just how bad Miami is. Overall, the Patriots have played the offenses ranked 26, 28, 30, 31, and 32.
By their own currently posted update, the Steelers are 25th not 26th. Second, are the Steelers with a healthy Ben (as the Patriots faced them) not a completely different offense than with their 2nd and 3rd string QB? I'm not saying they're top 10, but they're probably league average or slightly better. They were 6th last year.
 

BaseballJones

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Point Differential so far this year:

NE +121
SF +70
Dal +41
Min +39
Bal +38
KC +35
Phi +30
GB +26
Car +22
Ten +22
Hou +21
Buf +20
Chi +18
Sea +15
LAR +12
LAC +9
Det +2

The point differential between #1 and #2 is 51. The point differential between #2 and #11 is 52.

Pretty remarkable what the Pats have done so far. Hoping for a big increase after tonight's game as well.