2019 Playoff Seeding and Home Field Advantage Watch

[k-factory]

Losing Mahomes will hurt their seeding. Sure 9-7 probably wins that division. Oakland is the only threat and we'll find out how real they are in GB this Sunday. They could turtle the next 2 weeks against GB/Minn and still take the division. They just need to go 4-3 against the rest. @Tenn, @LAC, Oak, Pats, Denver, @Chi, LAC

Looking at the Houston sked its hard to see them not go at least 6-4 the rest of the way. Even if they tie with KC they have the tie-breaker so the playoff bye week seems likely lost to KC.

 

[alydar]

FWIW, Bills still control their own destiny for the AFC east and the #1 seed. Were the Bills to win out, the Patriots would have at least 2 in-conference loses (Ravens, Bills), while the Bills would be 14-2 with only one in-conference loss (to the Pats week 4). Here's the Bills remaining schedule:
Road games: CLE, MIA, DAL, PIT, NE
Home games: DEN, BAL, NYJ

 

[wilked]

FWIW, Bills still control their own destiny for the AFC east and the #1 seed. Were the Bills to win out, the Patriots would have at least 2 in-conference loses (Ravens, Bills), while the Bills would be 14-2 with only one in-conference loss (to the Pats week 4). Here's the Bills remaining schedule:
Road games: CLE, MIA, DAL, PIT, NE
Home games: DEN, BAL, NYJ

If Pats lose to Buffalo it could be a dogfight...

I do take solace in them having Josh Allen as their QB tho. He has a few more 2 or 3 turnover games left this season

 

[DJnVa]

Look, if the Bills and Patriots both roll into Foxboro tied/within a game that day and the Bills beat NE in Foxboro, then more power to them.

But it's not happening.

 

[dcmissle]

Putting their Pats game aside, the Bills are reasonably to lose @Dal and @Pitts. They are also reasonably likely to lose home vs. Baltimore.

The key lies with the Pats. Will they at least split their next 4 games, or not?

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Eagles game really feels massive, doesn't it? Traditionally, Bill has figured things out in the "on to" games. So, hopefully, they'll get the win. A loss puts a lot of less desirable possibilities on the table.

If the Ravens use this win as a springboard to finish 14-2, there's not much the Patriots can do about it, and the road to the Super Bowl will likely go through Baltimore. But other than that scenario, getting this next win sure would stabilize things.

As for the Bills, we'll see how good they are. I'm sure glad they took that second loss. Sometimes, the whole "half game ahead" stuff seems so silly to me in a season where the teams always play each other twice but only one game has happened. The alleged "half game" will never matter. (Well, almost never -- it will matter if the second game ends in a tie.) Since there's always a second game, it means that the other team always has a chance to neutralize the tie breaker, and, if they don't, they are screwed anyway. The bottom line is that it always comes down to the second game anyway. "Half game lead" is merely just a way to say "team A won the first game."

 

[BigSoxFan]

Eagles game really feels massive, doesn't it? Traditionally, Bill has figured things out in the "on to" games. So, hopefully, they'll get the win. A loss puts a lot of less desirable possibilities on the table.

If the Ravens use this win as a springboard to finish 14-2, there's not much the Patriots can do about it, and the road to the Super Bowl will likely go through Baltimore. But other than that scenario, getting this next win sure would stabilize things.

As for the Bills, we'll see how good they are. I'm sure glad they took that second loss. Sometimes, the whole "half game ahead" stuff seems so silly to me in a season where the teams always play each other twice but only one game has happened. The alleged "half game" will never matter. (Well, almost never -- it will matter if the second game ends in a tie.) Since there's always a second game, it means that the other team always has a chance to neutralize the tie breaker, and, if they don't, they are screwed anyway. The bottom line is that it always comes down to the second game anyway. "Half game lead" is merely just a way to say "team A won the first game."

Eagles game feels big from a momentum standpoint but the biggest games remaining are @ Houston, KC, and Buffalo. Win all 3 of those and the 1 seed is in pretty good shape with a bye all but locked up. Pats really need the NFCW to help out with Balt but it wouldn’t be end of the world for Balt to get 1 seed. Could easily see Watson or Mahomes taking them out come playoff time.

 

[BaseballJones]

Eagles game really feels massive, doesn't it? Traditionally, Bill has figured things out in the "on to" games. So, hopefully, they'll get the win. A loss puts a lot of less desirable possibilities on the table.

If the Ravens use this win as a springboard to finish 14-2, there's not much the Patriots can do about it, and the road to the Super Bowl will likely go through Baltimore. But other than that scenario, getting this next win sure would stabilize things.

Here are the last handful of teams to beat the Patriots, and what they did after that....

2016:
- Buffalo beat NE 16-0 in week 4. From that point on, they went 5-7 and missed the playoffs.
- Seattle beat NE 31-24 in week 10, which put them at 6-2-1. From that point on, they went 4-3, made the playoffs, and lost in the divisional round.

2017:
- KC beat NE 42-27 in week 1. From that point on, they won 4 in a row, then lost 6 of their next 7, and then finished with 4 straight wins to close out the year at 10-6. They then lost in the WC round of the playoffs, 10-7 to Tennessee.
- Car beat NE 33-30 in week 4 to get to 3-1. From there they went 8-4, made the playoffs, and lost in the WC round to the Saints.
- Mia beat NE 27-20 in week 12 to get to 6-7. From there they went 0-3 and missed the playoffs.
- Phi beat NE 41-33 in the Super Bowl. The next year they went 9-7, made the playoffs, and then lost in the Divisional Round to the Saints.

2018:
- Jax beat NE 31-20 in week 2 to get to 2-0. From then they went 3-11 and missed the playoffs.
- Det beat NE 26-10 in week 3 to get to 1-2. From then they went 5-8 and missed the playoffs.
- Ten beat NE 34-10 in week 10 to get to 5-4. From then they went 4-3 and missed the playoffs.
- Mia beat NE 34-33 in week 14 to get to 7-6. From then they went 0-3 and missed the playoffs.
- Pit beat NE 17-10 in week 15 to get to 8-5-1. From then they went 1-1 and missed the playoffs.

In most of these cases, the teams that have beaten the Patriots then went on to struggle. In none of the cases did the team that just beat New England proceed to go on a major roll. KC in 2017 did for a few weeks but then crashed back to earth.

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance, obviously, but the Ravens, while a good team, probably won't rip off 8 straight wins against a schedule that includes Hou, at LAR, SF, at Buf, at Cle, and vs Pit. I think they'd be pretty fortunate to go 6-2 and get to 12-4.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Eagles on a bye this week as well. Hope it's not a bad omen

 

[normstalls]

I am looking forward/hoping for the post Super Bowl win (aka beating the Patriots) let down that happened to every team last season to carry over this year to the Ravens as well.

edit: hah. BBJ and I were on the same page. His was much more thorough though obviously.

 

[tims4wins]

Here are the last handful of teams to beat the Patriots, and what they did after that....

2016:
- Buffalo beat NE 16-0 in week 4. From that point on, they went 5-7 and missed the playoffs.
- Seattle beat NE 31-24 in week 10, which put them at 6-2-1. From that point on, they went 4-3, made the playoffs, and lost in the divisional round.

2017:
- KC beat NE 42-27 in week 1. From that point on, they won 4 in a row, then lost 6 of their next 7, and then finished with 4 straight wins to close out the year at 10-6. They then lost in the WC round of the playoffs, 10-7 to Tennessee.
- Car beat NE 33-30 in week 4 to get to 3-1. From there they went 8-4, made the playoffs, and lost in the WC round to the Saints.
- Mia beat NE 27-20 in week 12 to get to 6-7. From there they went 0-3 and missed the playoffs.
- Phi beat NE 41-33 in the Super Bowl. The next year they went 9-7, made the playoffs, and then lost in the Divisional Round to the Saints.

2018:
- Jax beat NE 31-20 in week 2 to get to 2-0. From then they went 3-11 and missed the playoffs.
- Det beat NE 26-10 in week 3 to get to 1-2. From then they went 5-8 and missed the playoffs.
- Ten beat NE 34-10 in week 10 to get to 5-4. From then they went 4-3 and missed the playoffs.
- Mia beat NE 34-33 in week 14 to get to 7-6. From then they went 0-3 and missed the playoffs.
- Pit beat NE 17-10 in week 15 to get to 8-5-1. From then they went 1-1 and missed the playoffs.

In most of these cases, the teams that have beaten the Patriots then went on to struggle. In none of the cases did the team that just beat New England proceed to go on a major roll. KC in 2017 did for a few weeks but then crashed back to earth.

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance, obviously, but the Ravens, while a good team, probably won't rip off 8 straight wins against a schedule that includes Hou, at LAR, SF, at Buf, at Cle, and vs Pit. I think they'd be pretty fortunate to go 6-2 and get to 12-4.

Of the last 13 teams that beat the Pats, 10 missed the playoffs, and only the 2017 Seahawks won a playoff game (Seattle, 2016).

 

[BaseballJones]

Of the last 13 teams that beat the Pats, 10 missed the playoffs, and only the 2017 Seahawks won a playoff game (Seattle, 2016).

I'm pretty sure Baltimore will make the playoffs but I also can't see them finishing with the #1 seed. In fact, their next five games are at Cin, vs Hou, at LAR, vs SF, and at Buf. I could see them losing 2-3 of those potentially and sitting at like 9-4 or 8-5 before finishing the season strong.

 

[InstaFace]

If the Ravens use this win as a springboard to finish 14-2, there's not much the Patriots can do about it, and the road to the Super Bowl will likely go through Baltimore. But other than that scenario, getting this next win sure would stabilize things.

Here are the last handful of teams to beat the Patriots, and what they did after that....
...

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance, obviously, but the Ravens, while a good team, probably won't rip off 8 straight wins against a schedule that includes Hou, at LAR, SF, at Buf, at Cle, and vs Pit. I think they'd be pretty fortunate to go 6-2 and get to 12-4.

First off, awesome post BBJ.

Belichick once told Louis Riddick (in his playing days in Cleveland) that the difference between the starters and backups on a team wasn't a whole lot of talent or quality, it was the consistency and reliability with which they could play their best. Starters never take a play off or have wild game-to-game swings in their performance level - they might get beat on a play, but they can be counted on to do their jobs a much higher percentage of the time. Backups... can't.

There's an analogy to teams there. We've seen the peak performance level of the Ravens, and it's clearly enough to beat the Patriots. With more-even luck, such as that fumble by Edelman returned for a 70-yard TD, the game might be a toss-up rather than a blowout, but it's a fair fight. However, the Patriots are famous for maintaining their focus game to game. The Ravens, meanwhile, lost to the Mahomes Chiefs narrowly (a high-performance level game) but also lost by 15 to the Cleveland Browns. They are fully capable of having down games, even as well-coached as they are. So I think the scenario DDB points is extraordinarily unlikely. The team that gets HFA is going to be the most consistent team, not the team with the highest "max performance level".

Sure enough, the playoff odds moved after the Ravens game, to:
- FO: 26% Super Bowl, 89% Bye, 71% HFA. Mean wins: NE 13.1, BAL 11.0.
- 538: 21% Super Bowl, 82% Bye. Average record NE 13-3, BAL 11-5. Win over NE gained them +43 Elo points (a LOT), bumped them to #4 ranking in SB chances and everything else.
- NYT: 26% Super Bowl, 90% Bye, 75% HFA.

 

[BaseballJones]

Quick skinny on the AFC...

1. NE 8-1 - Still the class of the conference, will rebound from their first loss. Likely finish: 13-3, #1 seed.
2. Bal 6-2 - Huge win over NE that could come into play in the final seeding. I see them finishing at 12-4 with the #3 seed though.
3. Hou 6-3 - H2H win over KC. Still has to play Baltimore and New England. I think 11-5 is their final record, and the #4 seed.
4. KC 6-3 - Mahomes should return and KC once again gets dangerous. Likely finish: 12-4, #2 seed due to H2H win over Bal.
5. Buf 6-2 - Playing well but I don't think they're a 12-4 team. I see 10-6 and the #5 seed.
6. Ind 5-3 - Still have two tough road games @ Hou and @ NO. I also see 10-6 in their future and the #6 seed.
7. Pit 4-4 - Still have LAR, Bal, and Buf on the schedule. Could finish 9-7 or 10-6. Still think they miss the playoffs.
8. Oak 4-4 - Playing pretty well, but has 2 against the Chargers and 1 at KC. Gonna be tough to make the playoffs.

I see Bal, Hou, and KC as the top threats to NE at this point. Hou is no joke with Watson playing at such a high level. KC brings their high octane offense that will challenge the Pats. We'll learn more about that potential matchup when they face each other in Foxboro later in the season. We know about the Ravens, but I actually think if they meet in the playoffs in Foxboro, the Pats handle them, though not without some difficulty.

I think the Pats are the team to beat still. I think the playoffs will go through Foxboro, where they're awfully hard to beat. but three teams can challenge them and it's entirely possible that they'll have to play two of them. I could see Hou in the divisional round and though they traditionally take care of them pretty easily, I could see this year being a stiffer test. Then either Bal or KC...either of those games should be a real challenge.

Hard to be upset at 8-1 going into the bye week. Some real tests coming up though. Let's see how a rested and rejuvenated Pats team coming off a bad loss comes out after the bye.

 

[tims4wins]

I couldn’t have written it better. 100% agreed with every word, especially Houston being a tougher test than prior years.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I couldn’t have written it better. 100% agreed with every word, especially Houston being a tougher test than prior years.

Houston will definitely be a challenge due to their offense and Watson’s progression but I will be disappointed if we don’t have our way with their defense that now is without both Watt and Clowney. We also match up with them pretty well since the strength of their team is their WRs.

 

[tims4wins]

Houston will definitely be a challenge due to their offense and Watson’s progression but I will be disappointed if we don’t have our way with their defense that now is without both Watt and Clowney. We also match up with them pretty well since the strength of their team is their WRs.

Quite true on the WR point. Plus BoB is highly likely to make some kind of mistake if history is any guide.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Quite true on the WR point. Plus BoB is highly likely to make some kind of mistake if history is any guide.

Yup. Huge coaching advantage for us. Until proven otherwise, this team’s biggest competition for the AFC crown appears to be Baltimore but KC could be right there depending on Mahomes’ recovery. While Indy and Buffalo are legit, I’d gladly take my chances against them come playoff time.

 

[CantKeepmedown]

So, if we all agree that Baltimore and KC are the biggest threats, and assuming NE gets the 1 seed, our hope is that KC/Baltimore finish 2 and 3, right? That way we don't have to play them both in the playoffs. Ideally we would get one of Houston/Buffalo/Indy in the divisional round and let KC and Baltimore fight it out. And I like the fact that we'll have seen all of these teams in the regular season (outside of Indy). Long ways to go, but it should be fun.

 

[tims4wins]

Let’s not forget that at this point in 2015 not being the 1 seed was unimaginable... and at this time last year a bye didn’t really seem possible.

 

[BaseballJones]

Let's put it this way: the team at present with the best path to the Super Bowl is New England. That's all you could really ask for after 9 games. This next stretch will be huge for them.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Let's put it this way: the team at present with the best path to the Super Bowl is New England. That's all you could really ask for after 9 games. This next stretch will be huge for them.

Yup, it’s quite fluid but we’re in great shape right now. Injuries will certainly play a role down the stretch as will the hopeful returns of Wynn and Harry. The most pressure is on everyone else to take the #1 seed away from New England.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

The Ravens, meanwhile, lost to the Mahomes Chiefs narrowly (a high-performance level game) but also lost by 15 to the Cleveland Browns. They are fully capable of having down games, even as well-coached as they are.

I mentioned this in the pre-game but I would recommend throwing out the BAL-CLE game to talk about BAL's future prospects. The Ravens defense has changed four starters and a key contributor since then. During the CLE game, there were a ton of blown coverages and in the running game, there were guys just missing their assignments leading to gaping holes.

Here's more detail. In the first four games, BAL had Tony Jefferson at safety, who basically was non-existent in pass coverage in addition to blowing coverages; Onwasour was playing MIKE; Kenny Young at WILL; Tim Williams sharing snaps at rush end; and Brandon Carr at CB2 and some other guys (mostly Maurice Canady) at CB3.

Jefferson is out for the year and is replaced by Chuck Carr, who at least is in the correct position. Young, Williams, and Canady have all been cut. Onwasour is now playing WILL (where he is better suited) and Josh Bynes/LJ Fort have taken over the MIKE and is part of the LB rotation at WILL. Marcus Peters is now CB2, and with Jimmy Smith returning, Brandon Carr is covering fourth wide-out. Finally, although Pernell McPhee is out, they picked up Jihad Ward adds some push rushing ability.

It's pretty much an entirely different defense from week 4, and they have enough talent elsewhere (Thomas, Humphrey, Judon, defensive line) so that they just need the rest of the guys to be at least serviceable. Here's one stat that shows this:

Weeks 1-4
395.5 avg yds/gm
No. 27 overall

Weeks 5-9
302.0 avg yds/gm
No. 7 overall

 

[wilked]

Bills and Chiefs losing helps a good bit.

Ravens look to be the primary threat to top seed.

 

[snowmanny]

Ravens-Texans next week will have an impact.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Ravens-Texans next week will have an impact.

Yeah, the Texans games against the Pats and Ravens are big.

 

[dcmissle]

Texans @ Baltimore, Patriots @ Texans.

Perfectly said by Brady: 8-1 is very nice, but we really have to ramp it up:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/11/11/tom-brady-anyone-would-take-8-1-but-we-have-to-ramp-it-up/

 

[wilked]

Texans @ Baltimore, Patriots @ Texans.

Perfectly said by Brady: 8-1 is very nice, but we really have to ramp it up:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/11/11/tom-brady-anyone-would-take-8-1-but-we-have-to-ramp-it-up/

From that article:

"The Eagles game kicks off a run of four straight games against teams that currently have winning records and getting through it without the kind of stumble they experienced against the Ravens will make it all but impossible to envision anyone else as the No. 1 seed in the AFC come the postseason."

I mean...there's drivel, and then there's that

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

From that article:

"The Eagles game kicks off a run of four straight games against teams that currently have winning records and getting through it without the kind of stumble they experienced against the Ravens will make it all but impossible to envision anyone else as the No. 1 seed in the AFC come the postseason."

I mean...there's drivel, and then there's that

Let me rephrase the drivel.

If the Patriots go 15-1, it's all but impossible to envision that they won't host a division game and, if they win it, host the AFCCG, and, if they win that, go to the Super Bowl. It ultimately depends on one's ability to envision stuff like asteroids.

If the Patriots go 4-0 in the run of four straight games against teams that current have winning records, it is all but impossible to envision anyone else as the No. 1 seed in the AFC come the post season, unless the Patriots drop a game or games to teams that currently have a losing record and their AFC competitors do not lose again. Here, one's ability to envision these scenarios does not require quite as much imagination as the asteroid scenarios but everyone's envisionment abilities are different.

If the Patriots do not go 4-0 in the next 4 games against opponents with winning records, it is not all but impossible to envision that some other team will get the No. 1 seed, though this will depend on how you envision or don't envision those other teams in the AFC might play or not play. Ones envisionment abilities here range somewhere between Asteroid and Dolphins beating the Patriots at home, but where on the envisionment spectrum depends on one's temperament and imagination.

 

[SoxinSeattle]

Let me rephrase the drivel.

If the Patriots go 15-1, it's all but impossible to envision that they won't host a division game and, if they win it, host the AFCCG, and, if they win that, go to the Super Bowl. It ultimately depends on one's ability to envision stuff like asteroids.

If the Patriots go 4-0 in the run of four straight games against teams that current have winning records, it is all but impossible to envision anyone else as the No. 1 seed in the AFC come the post season, unless the Patriots drop a game or games to teams that currently have a losing record and their AFC competitors do not lose again. Here, one's ability to envision these scenarios does not require quite as much imagination as the asteroid scenarios but everyone's envisionment abilities are different.

If the Patriots do not go 4-0 in the next 4 games against opponents with winning records, it is not all but impossible to envision that some other team will get the No. 1 seed, though this will depend on how you envision or don't envision those other teams in the AFC might play or not play. Ones envisionment abilities here range somewhere between Asteroid and Dolphins beating the Patriots at home, but where on the envisionment spectrum depends on one's temperament and imagination.

 

[johnmd20]

Let me rephrase the drivel.

If the Patriots go 15-1, it's all but impossible to envision that they won't host a division game and, if they win it, host the AFCCG, and, if they win that, go to the Super Bowl. It ultimately depends on one's ability to envision stuff like asteroids.

If the Patriots go 4-0 in the run of four straight games against teams that current have winning records, it is all but impossible to envision anyone else as the No. 1 seed in the AFC come the post season, unless the Patriots drop a game or games to teams that currently have a losing record and their AFC competitors do not lose again. Here, one's ability to envision these scenarios does not require quite as much imagination as the asteroid scenarios but everyone's envisionment abilities are different.

If the Patriots do not go 4-0 in the next 4 games against opponents with winning records, it is not all but impossible to envision that some other team will get the No. 1 seed, though this will depend on how you envision or don't envision those other teams in the AFC might play or not play. Ones envisionment abilities here range somewhere between Asteroid and Dolphins beating the Patriots at home, but where on the envisionment spectrum depends on one's temperament and imagination.

There is a lot of envisioning going on here and I am here for ALL of it.

 

[Oppo]

It’s not like the Ravens have a cakewalk

Texans
@Rams
49ers
@Billz
Jets
@Browns
Steelers

 

[loshjott]

Let me rephrase the drivel.

If the Patriots go 15-1, it's all but impossible to envision that they won't host a division game and, if they win it, host the AFCCG, and, if they win that, go to the Super Bowl. It ultimately depends on one's ability to envision stuff like asteroids.

If the Patriots go 4-0 in the run of four straight games against teams that current have winning records, it is all but impossible to envision anyone else as the No. 1 seed in the AFC come the post season, unless the Patriots drop a game or games to teams that currently have a losing record and their AFC competitors do not lose again. Here, one's ability to envision these scenarios does not require quite as much imagination as the asteroid scenarios but everyone's envisionment abilities are different.

If the Patriots do not go 4-0 in the next 4 games against opponents with winning records, it is not all but impossible to envision that some other team will get the No. 1 seed, though this will depend on how you envision or don't envision those other teams in the AFC might play or not play. Ones envisionment abilities here range somewhere between Asteroid and Dolphins beating the Patriots at home, but where on the envisionment spectrum depends on one's temperament and imagination.

The bolded is not necessary. If the Patriots go 15-1 they will host a division game as the #1 seed.

 

[BaseballJones]

I think the race for HFA is a race to 13 wins for Baltimore, and 14 for New England. I think Baltimore loses another game, as they have a difficult schedule the rest of the way. That means for NE, 13 wins isn't enough. So I think NE needs to go 7-1 the rest of the way to end up with the #1 seed. I think if NE finishes with 13 wins, they could end up with the 2 seed. But both Bal and NE have some tough games left, and that means the rest of the regular season should be absolutely fascinating.

 

[E5 Yaz]

It’s not like the Ravens have a cakewalk

Texans
@Rams
49ers
@Billz
Jets
@Browns
Steelers

The toughest road game left is the Rams; the toughest home game is the Steelers. Ravens are running the table

 

[Mystic Merlin]

I think anywhere from 7-0 to 4-3 are realistically in play for both teams, so it’ll be a great finish.

 

[RIrooter09]

The toughest road game left is the Rams; the toughest home game is the Steelers. Ravens are running the table

Texans and Niners are both better than Pittsburgh. They’ll lose two more and finish 12-4.

 

[Dogman]

The toughest road game left is the Rams; the toughest home game is the Steelers. Ravens are running the table

Both the Bills and 9ers have excellent defenses and the Texans and Rams can score a ton of points. Not sure I agree with you.

I do agree with MM that it can fall anywhere but I think it's more likely they go 5-2.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

Texans and Niners are both better than Pittsburgh. They’ll lose two more and finish 12-4.

The Browns also lit them up @BAL and they are playing them in Cleveland Week 16. Also the more time goes by with them running this offense the more film there is. I’d bet the Pats end up at 13-3 and Ravens 12-4

 

[tims4wins]

Last year KC was 9-1. No one would have thought they could possibly finish as bad as 12-4. They did. Shit happens. The Ravens aren't running the table, they're not even going 6-1.

 

[BaseballJones]

Baltimore's schedule
Texans
@Rams
49ers
@Billz
Jets
@Browns
Steelers

Texans:
- allowing 4.1 yards per rush (#14 in the NFL)
- 8th in points scored
- dynamic QB that could give Baltimore trouble

Rams:
- allowing 3.3 yards per rush (#2 in the NFL)
- outside of one freak game vs TB, has allowed just 13.0 points a game at home

49ers:
- struggles with the run (4.6 yds per carry), but has the #2 defense in the NFL

Bills:
- #3 ranked defense
- allowing 18.8 points a game at home

Jets:
- allowing 3.0 yards per rush (#1 in the NFL)

Browns:
- struggles with the run (4.9 yds per carry)
- has the talent to pull off an upset

Steelers:
- only lost by 3 to the Ravens in OT in their first matchup
- allowing 16.8 points a game in their last 4

Each team could provide Baltimore with a pretty decent challenge. I don't see Baltimore running the table. And if they do, congrats to them; they'd have earned it.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

The bolded is not necessary. If the Patriots go 15-1 they will host a division game as the #1 seed.

1. You missed the joke.

2. You're discounting the asteroid scenario.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Texans and Niners are both better than Pittsburgh. They’ll lose two more and finish 12-4.

That discounts the history of Ravens-Steelers games, plus the likelihood that the Steelers will need a win more at that point

 

[dcmissle]

We’re on the clock soon to keep the 1 seed, and it’s going to be a white knuckle ride the next few weeks. Not many losses pop up on the Ravens’ remaining schedule.

 

[lexrageorge]

We’re on the clock soon to keep the 1 seed, and it’s going to be a white knuckle ride the next few weeks. Not many losses pop up on the Ravens’ remaining schedule.

49'ers are tough and more than capable of giving the Ravens a fight. And Buffalo in December is not the easiest place to score a victory. Other than that, you have to look for a WTF loss, although the Ravens may have hit their quota already.

 

[Euclis20]

It's not a murderer's row, but you've got one heavyweight (SF) and three teams who will probably be fighting for their playoff lives (LAR, PIT, BUF). If they run the table they'll deserve the #1 seed, if they finish 5-1 that'd be impressive enough.

 

[wilked]

If the Ravens can win 12 games in a row (including vs Pats and 9ers) you tip your cap and acknowledge they will likely be top seed and deserve it.

 

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

If the Ravens can win 12 games in a row (including vs Pats and 9ers) you tip your cap and acknowledge they will likely be top seed and deserve it.

This is a pretty nonsensical statement.

If the Bills can win 7 games in a row (including vs Pats and Ravens) you tip your cap and acknowledge they will likely be top seed and deserve it.

 

[wilked]

This is a pretty nonsensical statement.

If the Bills can win 7 games in a row (including vs Pats and Ravens) you tip your cap and acknowledge they will likely be top seed and deserve it.

I am pretty sure a 13-3 Patriots team holds the tiebreaker over a 13-3 Bills team in your scenario, so it doesn't quite apply.

I'm not sure why it's nonsensical... If Ravens win out with a 14-2 record, including a win over the Pats, they are deserving of top seed. Hope for the rematch and some revenge at M&T

 

[johnmd20]

If the Ravens can win 12 games in a row (including vs Pats and 9ers) you tip your cap and acknowledge they will likely be top seed and deserve it.

If the Ravens win the super bowl and outscore their opponents in the playoffs 189-3, you tip your cap and acknowledge they are super bowl champion and deserve it.

I mean, that sentence makes as much sense as what you said.