As of today....
1. New England 6-0(3-0 division, 4-0 AFC, .303 SOS, .303 SOV)
2. Houston 4-2(1-0 division, 3-0 AFC, .500 SOS, .375 SOV)(wins tiebreaker over KC and Baltimore due to AFC record)
3. Kansas City 4-2(1-0 division, 3-2 AFC, .578 SOS, .548 SOV)(wins tiebreaker over Baltimore due to H2H)
4. Baltimore 4-2(2-1 division, 3-2 AFC, .300 SOS, .196 SOV)
5. Buffalo 4-1
6. Oakland 3-2(wins tiebreaker over Indy due to H2H)
The Pats should get to 8-0 before hitting the tough part of their schedule. The Jets might give them some fits next Monday night, but the Pats should win that game. I think they handle Cleveland at home more easily than the Jets on the road.
So assume they're at 8-0. Then they enter a challenging 5-game gauntlet: at Bal, at Phi, vs Dal, at Hou, vs KC. They finish at Cin, vs Mia, and vs Buf. So that's 3-0 that they should get at the end, especially with the Bills coming to Foxboro. So that five-game stretch is everything. Let's say they go 2-3 in that stretch. That puts them at 13-3.
Here are the schedules for KC, Hou, Bal, and Buf.
KC still has at Den, vs GB, vs Min, at Ten, at NE, at LAC, and at Chi. They should lose one or two of those games.
Hou still has at Ind, at Jax, at Bal, vs Ind, vs NE, at Ten, and vs Ten. They should also lose one or two of those games.
Bal still has at Sea, vs NE, vs Hou, at LAR, vs SF, at Cle. They should lose one or two of those games.
Buf still has vs Phi, at Cle, at Dal, vs Bal, at Pit, at NE. They should lose at least the NE game and probably one more.
Long story short, I don't see any team other than NE being able to achieve a 13-3 record or better. Buffalo *could*, but it's most likely that even if they do, they'll be 0-2 against New England, giving the tiebreaker to the Pats.
So even if NE loses their games at Bal, at Hou, and vs KC, I still see them at 13-3 with the #1 seed in the conference. And at this point, any H2H victory the Pats get over Bal, KC, or Hou effectively knocks that team out of the mix for #1 seed, seeing as though that's one of the tough games the Pats would have left that would suddenly be a W, and a H2H win at that over a rival.
They still have a ton of improvement to do, but they're in very good shape.