2019 Pats: Roster Projection 2.0

RedOctober3829

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QB(3)--Brady, Hoyer, Stidham
--I think Stidham has too much value to try to sneak him through waivers but not enough to cut Hoyer.

RB(5)--White, Michel, Burkhead, D. Harris, Bolden
--All 5 deserve to make the roster with Burkhead the most liable to get cut.

FB(1)--Develin
--He is as important as ever without Gronkowski

TE(2)--LaCosse, Izzo
--I would not rule out a trade or a post-cut signing of another TE but I can't see them carrying more than 2 until Watson comes back.

WR(7)--Edelman, Gordon, Harry, Meyers, Berrios, Inman, Slater
--I toyed with Demaryius Thomas coming off PUP as he has been ramping up his workouts lately, but ultimately he will not have enough time to assimilate to the group. I would have kept Maurice Harris, but I think he has a significant injury.

OL(8)--Wynn, Thuney, Andrews, Mason, Cannon, Froholdt, Croston, Karras
--Skipper/Croston are fighting for one spot and I think they go with familiarity over Skipper.

DE(5)--Bennett, Calhoun, Winovich, Wise, Simon
--I'd have taken Rivers, but Curran said he's "going to be out a while" so Wise gets in. Calhoun seems to be fine which is good because he's had a great camp. Overall, a really good group.

DT(4)--Guy, Shelton, Butler, Cowart
--Mike Pennel is a tough cut, but the facts are that he has played with the backups constantly in camp if at all. Not a good sign. Shelton has been playing well and deserves to stay. Byron Cowart is an interesting player. He has really good pass rushing ability and if they are going to stay in these 2 and 3 down fronts he fits.

LB(5)--Hightower, Collins, Van Noy, Bentley, King
--A versatile and athletic group who has really good potential. Roberts is the odd man out because he is not versatile enough. Bentley has more pass rushing and coverage ability than him.

CB(6)--Gilmore, JMac, Williams, Jackson, JJones, Crossen
--This could be the best CB group in the league. Gilmore is the best cover corner in the league. Jackson is becoming a really good young player. Jones is a top slot corner. Williams is an interesting matchup guy who keeps getting better. Crossen's speed keeps him around as he can cover some of the faster WR's on their schedule plus his ST ability is becoming elite.

SAF(4)--DMac, Chung, Harmon, Brooks
--Harmon ultimately makes my 53 as Dawson has not shown enough to keep on the roster. Brooks showed out last night and deserves to stay over Melifonwu.

ST(3)--Bailey, Gostkowski, Cardona
--Bailey's cannon of a leg plus his KO ability wins out over Allen.

Reserve PUP--D Thomas, Meredith
IR: Rivers, M. Harris
NFI--Cajuste
Suspended--Watson
Traded: Dorsett to the Lions for a late round pick
Tough Cuts: Pennel, Roberts, Allen, Kendricks, Beck, Ferentz, Melifonwu
 

BaseballJones

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Wouldn’t guys like Pennel and Roberts have some trade value perhaps, even if it’s just for a 7th rounder?
 

5dice

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I thought you were sure Harmon was out as the “surprise” cut? You nearly chased me off the internet trying to prove that point a few days ago.
 

RedOctober3829

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I thought you were sure Harmon was out as the “surprise” cut? You nearly chased me off the internet trying to prove that point a few days ago.
He is still a candidate for a surprise cut or trade because of the cap savings it would bring. However, when I went to construct the roster Dawson had not done enough to warrant a roster spot so I moved Jones back to a corner. Melifonwu struggled in coverage last night so a spot opened up for him. But to say Harmon is a roster lock is just not based in fact.
 

mcpickl

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Inman over Dorsett would be a surprise, they have a bunch of size at WR, not as much speed.

And as Dernell said, Ebner very likely makes the team as well.
 

Harry Hooper

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In several roster spots, deciding between Player X and Player Y may come down to shedding the player who can be traded for something.
 

RGREELEY33

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Inman over Dorsett would be a surprise, they have a bunch of size at WR, not as much speed.
Yes, this would be stunning to me. Between the trust that Brady has developed with Dorsett, some of big plays he has made and the speed factor, I just don’t see them keeping Inman over him (or even Berrios).
 

RedOctober3829

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Yes, this would be stunning to me. Between the trust that Brady has developed with Dorsett, some of big plays he has made and the speed factor, I just don’t see them keeping Inman over him (or even Berrios).
I think that Detroit needs speed as well and the Pats can get something of value for him. Inman is only on the roster for a short while as he could be odd man out when DT is ready or when Ben Watson comes back.
 

j-man

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idk why a bad team like miami arizona etc does not cut to 35 players so they can offer all the cut vets or young guys a 53 man spot
 

Super Nomario

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QB (3) T.Brady, B.Hoyer, J.Stidham
RB (6) S.Michel, J.Develin, R.Burkhead, J.White, D.Harris, B.Bolden
WR (6) J.Edelman, N.Harry, P.Dorsett, M.Slater, J.Meyers, J.Gordon -Berrios-
TE (1) M.LaCosse
C (1) D.Andrews
G (4) S.Mason, J.Thuney, H.Froholdt, T.Karras
T (3) M.Cannon, I.Wynn, D.Skipper
Big DL (3): L.Guy, M.Pennel, D.Shelton
Rush DL (4): M.Bennett, A.Butler, B.Cowart, -Wise-
OLB (3) C.Winovich, J.Simon, S.Calhoun, -Rivers-
All-purpose LB (3): D.Hightower, K.VanNoy, J.Collins,
ILB(3) J.Bentley, E.Roberts, B.King
CB (6) S.Gilmore, J.McCourty, J.Jackson, J.Williams, J.Jones, K.Crossen
SS (2) P.Chung, N.Ebner -Melifonwu-
FS (3) D.McCourty, D.Harmon, T.Brooks
ST (3) S.Gostkowski, R.Allen, J.Cardona

Total players: 53
Created with Pats Picker: http://patsfans.com/patspicker

Suspended: B.Watson
PUP / NFI: Y.Cajuste, D.Thomas, C.Meredith
Traded: D.Dawson
Toughest Cuts: D.Wise, D.Rivers, J.Bailey, O.Melifonwu
Look to add: another TE
 

Saints Rest

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In the 1.0 thread, I posted my version that I called Locks vs Bubbles. Here's my update, in that same format.

I pasted my old thread with appropriate strikeouts noted. All names in bold are additions to the list for this go-round.

Locks (38):
QB (2) T.Brady, Stidham. His performance moves him firmly into the lock category.
RB (4) S.Michel, J.Develin, J.White, D.Harris,​
WR (4) J.Edelman, M.Harris, N.Harry, J Meyers, J Gordon. I don't see them cutting Gordon, while Harris's injury puts him on the bubble.
TE (0) M.LaCosse. His injury puts him on the bubble.
C (1) D.Andrews​
G (2) S.Mason, J.Thuney,​
T (2) M.Cannon, I.Wynn, D.Skipper. Wynn's return moves him to the bubble.
DE (3) M.Bennett, D.Wise, C.Winovich, Simon
DT (2) L.Guy, Shelton
LB (4) J.Bentley, D.Hightower, K.VanNoy, J.Collins​
CB (5) S.Gilmore, J.Jackson, J.McCourty, J.Williams, J.Jones​
S (2) P.Chung, D.McCourty,​
ST (5) M.Slater, B.Bolden, B.King, K.Crossen, T.Brooks​
Specialist (2) S.Gostkowski, J.Cardona​

24 Bubbles vying for 15 roster spots, but in reality, it's likely 22 for 14 as only two guys are fighting for the one spot at punter.
  • Hoyer, Stidham (Stidham moves to a LOCK, Hoyer is likely kept, but not 100%.)
  • Burkhead
  • Meyers, Dorsett, Berrios (Meyers moves to a LOCK, Berrios on the bubble mainly as a PR)
  • Izzo, Saubert, Kendricks, LaCosse (the latter due to injury)
  • Karras, Ferentz, Froholdt, Croston, Skipper (I think three might make it. Karras is near to a lock, Froho just a step below that, plus one of the two tackles.)
  • Shelton, Butler, Pennel, Cowart (I think two or three might make it. Shelton is now a lock, IMO, while Butler is a near lock, Pennel might be in trouble, but Cowart has a good shot unless they think they can get him onto the PS.)
  • Rivers, Wise, Calhoun. Probably fighting for one spot at best.
  • Roberts, Sam. I would expect that they will try to get Sam onto the PS.
  • Dawson Pretty sure he is gone.
  • Harmon, Melifonwu. I think one is kept and one is traded.
  • Bailey, Allen (1 of these is for sure kept.)
  • Some roster fodder from another team #1
  • Some roster fodder from another team #2
 

ShaneTrot

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idk why a bad team like miami arizona etc does not cut to 35 players so they can offer all the cut vets or young guys a 53 man spot
We always overestimate the value of guys at the bottom of rosters. How many times have the Pats cut a guy, he was picked up and became a passable player in the NFL? One that comes to mind is Ted Larsen, a 2010 six-rounder who was cut out of camp. He is still in the league and according to SportTrac has made around $12 million in 9 years.
Hell, the Pats churn the bottom of the roster all year long.
 

Super Nomario

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In the 1.0 thread, I posted my version that I called Locks vs Bubbles. Here's my update, in that same format.

I pasted my old thread with appropriate strikeouts noted. All names in bold are additions to the list for this go-round.

Locks (38):
DT (2) L.Guy, Shelton
ST (5) M.Slater, B.Bolden, B.King, K.Crossen, T.Brooks​

24 Bubbles vying for 15 roster spots, but in reality, it's likely 22 for 14 as only two guys are fighting for the one spot at punter.

  • Karras, Ferentz, Froholdt, Croston, Skipper (I think three might make it. Karras is near to a lock, Froho just a step below that, plus one of the two tackles.)
  • Shelton, Butler, Pennel, Cowart (I think two or three might make it. Shelton is now a lock, IMO, while Butler is a near lock, Pennel might be in trouble, but Cowart has a good shot unless they think they can get him onto the PS.
  • Dawson Pretty sure he is gone.
This is a good way of looking at it and I agree with most of it. I would keep Shelton on the bubble and make Butler a lock - in the first game he was playing with the ones as part of every package they had. Since only Guy and Bennett got the night off among the DL, that suggests to me they have big plans for Butler, and getting the night off on Saturday only adds to that impression.

Froholdt is a lock as a rookie fourth. They've never cut anyone they've drafted after one camp, they're treating him the same way they're treating the other rookie locks from a playing time standpoint, and he's flashed in games.

I don't know exactly how to handicap the ST race, but they could certainly move on from those guys if they want to from a contractual standpoint. I think Slater is a lock, King and Brooks are close, Bolden and Crossen are probable but not definite.

As poorly as he's played at times, I think Dawson is still in the mix for one of the last spots. They'll give him every chance to make the squad with a strong finish to the preseason.

For completeness' sake, I think it's also interesting to list out the guys who have little-to-no chance to make the roster. Among them, I'm probably most intrigued by what I've seen from Tyree St. Louis.
 

TheDeuce222

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We always overestimate the value of guys at the bottom of rosters. How many times have the Pats cut a guy, he was picked up and became a passable player in the NFL? One that comes to mind is Ted Larsen, a 2010 six-rounder who was cut out of camp. He is still in the league and according to SportTrac has made around $12 million in 9 years.
Hell, the Pats churn the bottom of the roster all year long.
I think the Patriots August rosters over the last decade have often had at least 2 or 3 guys who were cut but then went on to become regular contributors elsewhere. Larsen is a good example. Darius Butler was cut in 2010 and later became a pretty nice player for the Colts (with a stop with the Panthers in between). 2014 6th Rounder Jon Halapio was cut in 2014, came back around in 2016 and was cut again and has become a starter for the Giants in the last couple of years (granted, years down the line). Best recent examples are Kenny Moore and Justin Coleman, who were both cut in 2017 and went on to have two good seasons each and get big money this past offseason.
 

lambeau

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QB (3) T.Brady, B.Hoyer, J.Stidham
RB (6) D.Harris, S.Michel, B.Bolden, J.White, J.Develin, R.Burkhead
WR (7) J.Edelman, B.Berrios, N.Harry, P.Dorsett, J.Meyers, J.Gordon, M.Slater
TE (1) M.LaCosse
C (1) D.Andrews
G (4) S.Mason, J.Thuney, T.Karras, H.Froholdt
T (3) M.Cannon, I.Wynn, D.Skipper
DE (5) J.Simon, M.Bennett, C.Winovich, S.Calhoun, D.Wise
DT (5) L.Guy, M.Pennel, D.Shelton, B.Cowart, A.Butler
ILB(1) J.Bentley
OLB(4) J.Collins, K.VanNoy, D.Hightower, B.King
CB (5) S.Gilmore, J.Williams, J.McCourty, J.Jones, J.Jackson
SS (2) P.Chung, N.Ebner
FS (3) T.Brooks, D.McCourty, D.Harmon
ST (3) S.Gostkowski, J.Cardona, J.Bailey

Total players: 53
Created with Pats Picker: http://patsfans.com/patspicker

Susp: B. Watson
IR: D. Rivers, D. Ross, Y. Cajuste
PUP: D.Thomas, C. Meredith
Cut: K. Crosson, O. Melifonwu, E. Roberts, R. Allen, M. Harris
Cut/PS: C. Sam, C. Munson, D. Dawson, K. Webster, J. Ferentz, K. Davis, R. Izzo, C. Croston
 

steveluck7

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From Jim McBride on Twitter:

Breaking: The #Patriots are releasing punter Ryan Allen, per league source. He was with the team for six seasons and won three Super Bowls.
 

BigSoxFan

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From Jim McBride on Twitter:

Breaking: The #Patriots are releasing punter Ryan Allen, per league source. He was with the team for six seasons and won three Super Bowls.
Godspeed, Allen. You weren’t perfect but you stepped up big time in February. Should find another job soon.
 

E5 Yaz

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Ha! BB loves his left footed punters but Bailey's leg is just too good.
I'm sure I posted this someone before, but my theory is that so many teams are employing left-footed punters now, that the edge in directional spin that BB once saw might no longer exist

Godspeed, Allen. You weren’t perfect but you stepped up big time in February. Should find another job soon.
I remember before the game just how many people gave the edge in the kicking game to the Rams, with Allen thought to be the worst of the four specialists. That might have been true, but it wasn't that day
 

bsj

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Here's a stab

QB (3) T.Brady, B.Hoyer, J.Stidham
RB (6) D.Harris, S.Michel, B.Bolden, J.White, J.Develin
WR (6) J.Edelman, B.Berrios, N.Harry, P.Dorsett, J.Meyers, J.Gordon
TE (1) M.LaCosse
C (1) D.Andrews
G (4) S.Mason, J.Thuney, T.Karras, H.Froholdt
T (3) M.Cannon, I.Wynn, C. Croston
DE (5) J.Simon, M.Bennett, C.Winovich, S.Calhoun, D.Wise
DT (5) L.Guy, M.Pennel, D.Shelton, B.Cowart, A.Butler
ILB(2) J.Bentley, Roberts
OLB(4) J.Collins, K.VanNoy, D.Hightower, B.King
CB (5) S.Gilmore, J.Williams, J.McCourty, J.Jones, J.Jackson
SS (2) P.Chung, N.Ebner
FS (3) T.Brooks, D.McCourty, D.Harmon
ST (4) S.Gostkowski, J.Cardona, J.Bailey, M. Slater

Notes- I feel like there will likely be a 2nd TE but I couldnt figure out who to cut so there it is for now.
I never like to list Slater with WRs because he is functionally not a part of that unit.
I think Berrios makes it. I think we get a 3 QB year. Unless he cuts Hoyer and maybe thats where the 2nd TE goes.
 

nattysez

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I'm trying to figure out what kind of 4-dimensional chess BB was playing when making a waiver claim on another punter.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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I'm trying to figure out what kind of 4-dimensional chess BB was playing when making a waiver claim on another punter.
Have somebody who can punt at practice while Bailey is working on holding the ball for placekicks, and vice versa?

Or maybe just entertain the Pats coaching staff with stories about what's going on in Raiders camp beyond what we get to see in Hard Knocks?
 

Harry Hooper

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I'm trying to figure out what kind of 4-dimensional chess BB was playing when making a waiver claim on another punter.
Interesting that Townsend is also a right-footed punter. Did BB have a trade partner for Bailey lined up?
 

lambeau

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Is BB thinking of going with Stidham as his sole backup? Bedard reading tea leaves:
1-Stidham brought in at 4:44 left instead of letting Hoyer finish the half to see the kid handle the pressure of being on the 1 yd line (safety wasn't his fault).
2-Titans blitzed 9 times in second half vs only once in first--did BB ask Vrabel for a favor to test Stidham?
3-A "tell" might be if BB simulates a Brady injury Thursday and sends Stidham in mid-drive.
 

Shelterdog

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I'm trying to figure out what kind of 4-dimensional chess BB was playing when making a waiver claim on another punter.
It's probably one dimensional-he thinks the guy might be a great punter (5th round pick last year, 47.9 yards per punt in college) so he thought he'd give it a shot.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Could we cut Hoyer and hire him back as a QB coach and pay him well...and still have him around in an emergency?
Yes, though I think you take $1.5 mil in dead money to do this. So, it truly would make sense only in an emergency since you'd need to pay him additional money on top of the dead money if you wanted him back.
 

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)

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signing another punter makes sense right now. They probably want a second leg available for special team's drills. Also anyone they sign now and then let go at the final cut down probably does not have a very high percentage of catching on with someone else's 53 man roster (at least not right away). So you bring in a guy now for a couple weeks, get some familiarity with him, he works a bit with the snapper and kicker. If a guy runs into Bailey's leg early in the season you have someone that is likely still available that doesn't have to start from scratch or be rushed up to speed.
 

RedOctober3829

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signing another punter makes sense right now. They probably want a second leg available for special team's drills. Also anyone they sign now and then let go at the final cut down probably does not have a very high percentage of catching on with someone else's 53 man roster (at least not right away). So you bring in a guy now for a couple weeks, get some familiarity with him, he works a bit with the snapper and kicker. If a guy runs into Bailey's leg early in the season you have someone that is likely still available that doesn't have to start from scratch or be rushed up to speed.
I think it would be preferred but not required. Pre-practice the returners can catch punts and kickoffs off of the JUGS machine. There aren't many periods in practice where he's going to have to actually punt from here until Week 1. A lot of punt periods are installs and the unit works on their lanes. If a guy gets anywhere near Bailey in practice there's a problem as the scout team is instructed to not go anywhere near the punter. For punt return, they can use the JUGS to punt the football.
 

RedOctober3829

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Bedard has his 53 man roster out after D Thomas off the PUP.
QB(3)--Brady, Hoyer, Stidham
RB(5)--Michel, White, Harris, Bolden, Burkhead
WR(7)--Edelman, Gordon, D Thomas, Harry, Meyers, Berrios, Slater
TE(3)--LaCosse, Izzo, Develin
T(3)--Wynn, Cannon, Skipper
G/C(5)--Thuney, Mason, Andrews, Froholdt, Karras
OLB(5)--Winovich, Calhoun, Simon, Van Noy, Rivers
DL(5)--Bennett, Shelton, Guy, Cowart, Butler
LB(4)--Hightower, Bentley, King, Collins
CB(6)--Gilmore, JMac, Williams, Jackson, Jones, Dawson
SAF(4)--DMC, Chung, Brooks, Ebner
ST(3)--Bailey, Gostkowski, Cardona

Notable Cuts--Dorsett, M. Harris, Kendricks, Anderson, Ferentz, Pennel, Wise, Harmon, Melifonwu
Trades--Crossen, Roberts
Suspended--Watson
NFI--Cajuste
PUP--Meredith